This data strongly implies one million people enrolled for the February 1st coverage start date during the month of January. That is a minimal pressure deadline as someone who was healthy enough to not get in on the December rush is probably healthy enough to not really need to get in on February. Procrastination is only so much fun. I am projecting the same number of people will sign up for the March 1, 2014 coverage start date by February 15th. That pushes the number to roughly 4 million private policies.
The Massachusetts experience was that the greatest wave of enrollment was right before the hardest deadline when actual money was on the line. We know there was a big flurry of older and probably sicker people signing up in December. The young are entering the pools number, so getting an enrollment wave as large or larger than December for the March 15th deadline is highly probable. And if that is the case 6.5 to 7 million people will be enrolled by April 1, 2014. And then there will be the normal enrollment churn as people have different qualifying events that will put them on and take them off Exchange.
And then CBO lowered their estimate to 6 million on Exchange enrollments for the 2014 open enrollment period.
New Avalere analysis finds that exchange enrollment is on track to reach 5.4 million by the end of March when open enrollment is set to end. That number falls short of current Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that six million people will enroll in exchanges in 2014.
Charles Gbaba at ACASignups.net has been continually revising his model upwards. He started at 6 million and is now up to at least 6.5 million for March 31st.
I understand Charle’s model. It is a fairly simple model that has trouble dealing with spikes. I’m curious as to what the hell Avalere was doing with their model if it was anything more sophisticated than taking Medicare Part D roll-out monthly percentages and applying it against Exchange percentages and populations. My model was an implicit model that health insurance for younger and healthier people is a very nice to have but not need to have now good. Procrastination is fun, and the Massachusetts’ experience showed a massive spike at the end of the enrollment period as the quasi-optional early coverage people got in before they had to pay something for “nothing”, they would rather pay something for something.
I sometimes know what I’m talking about.