He’s a man, with a plan, got a counterfeit dollar in his hand

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading the race for governor with 47%, followed by Tim Donnelly (R) at 10% and Neel Kashkari (R) and Andrew Blount (R) at just 2%.

I have a colleague who is always wrong about everything he predicts, whether it’s Romney winning in 2012 (at one point Romney led in one of those “futures markets”, thus Romney was a cinch) or the fate of the Malaysian Airline flight (he thought Al Qaeda had landed it and was now doing a hostage negotiation).

So here’s my question: are there people who are so consistently wrong that they can be considered counter-indicators, that you could make money by betting against everything that they predict? Charles Lane (this electoral map is also a doozy) and William Galston seem like strong candidates. Is it a pan-New Republic/contrarian thing?






161 replies
  1. 1
    Belafon says:

    Well, Kashkari could rise as high as 5%, and then Lane would just laugh in your face.

  2. 2
    Elizabelle says:

    Serious question: once we’ve compiled the list, why don’t we — in our private lives — write to the media outlets that employ these stooges and ask why they do? With that record, and so many better journalists out there?

  3. 3
    NobodySpecial says:

    Bill Kristol is your idol here. Always wrong…

  4. 4
    DWD says:

    Bill Kristol is the urform here, right?

    HA! Beaten by seconds!

  5. 5
    boatboy_srq says:

    @NobodySpecial: @DWD: First one that came to my mind. Though Rove wasn’t far behind, and you an always count or Rasmussen to run the matching poll.

  6. 6
    Mnemosyne says:

    Given the recent history of Republican candidates in California, I wouldn’t underestimate Neel Kashkari either — I guarantee you that he can easily go well below two percent of the vote. Unless Bruce Willis or Kelsey Grammar decide to run, ain’t no Republican winning here.

  7. 7
    amk says:

    dick armey?

    eta: dick morris?

    Too many dicks to remember

  8. 8
    MomSense says:

    Mark Halperin. IIRC back in 2008 Axelrod said something like they read him first thing and assume the opposite to be the case.

  9. 9
    SatanicPanic says:

    @Mnemosyne: Robert Downey Jr would be another possibility. That’s their bench- actors. Well, it has worked twice before.

  10. 10
    Humanities Grad says:

    Bill Kristol, as others have noted, is always an outstanding choice. But I’m shocked nobody has mentioned Dick Morris yet. He’s got to be one of the most reliable bellwethers out there, at least in the sense that every major projection he makes seems to be wrong.

  11. 11
    danielx says:

    @NobodySpecial:

    Beaten to the mark. Whatever Bloody Bill says to do, do the opposite and you can’t go wrong.

  12. 12
    Tractarian says:

    Dick Morris, duh.

  13. 13
    gf120581 says:

    Dick Morris and Bill Kristol are the kings of always being wrong. They say it’s gonna rain tomorrow, schedule your picnic with confidence.

  14. 14
    Joey Maloney says:

    Mark Penn has got to be a contender. And he’ll need somewhere to fail upwards from Microsoft.

  15. 15
    EconWatcher says:

    It seems to me we might usefully distinguish between those who are always wrong because they’re stupid, and those who are always wrong because they’re shilling for a particular outcome and don’t care what the truth is.

    So, for example, Richard Perle is always wrong, but he’s clearly in the second camp. Kristol is a bit trickier; he strikes me as a little of both (stupid and disingenuous). Douglas Feith is by all accounts really, really stupid. And so on.

  16. 16
    geg6 says:

    WTF, Doug? Have you forgotten William “The Bloody” Kristol so quickly and easily?

  17. 17
    jonas says:

    Dick Morris is the all-time most wrongest person in history. Fortunes could be made merely betting on the opposite of everything he says. Followed closely by Kristol, of course. “The Next Sixth Months” Friedman deserves honorable mention.

  18. 18
    Violet says:

    @NobodySpecial: Yeah, I thought Bill Kristol was the standard by which all others are judged in this regard.

  19. 19
    Lavocat says:

    I think George Costanza had this figured out 20 years ago.

  20. 20
    Mnemosyne says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    I don’t think Downey would run as a Republican, though. He’s very conservative about law-and-order (being in prison tends to do that to you), but I don’t think he’s socially conservative at all.

    Let me put it this way: California Republicans keep running vocally pro-life candidates. In California.

  21. 21
    SatanicPanic says:

    @jonas: Those three guys were the gold standard of the last decade. I don’t know if anyone will ever top their run of consistent wrongness. Hopefully not in my lifetime.

  22. 22
    jonas says:

    Republicans dilemma in California is that to make it through the primary, you have to hate big time on the Mexicans and other minorities. Then the proposal you floated on the Hugh Hewitt show in a debate with your opponent to allow local gun clubs to hunt illegals for sport and claim a tax credit for the spent ammunition comes back to bite you in the general.

  23. 23
    mai naem says:

    Richard B. Cheney. MLK holiday, Apartheid, Iraq War, Vietnam war, CEO of Halliburton when they bought Dresser Industries, an asbestos manufacturer with massive liabilities, misidentifying a human being for a bird and shooting the person.

  24. 24
    mai naem says:

    Richard B. Cheney. MLK holiday, Apartheid, Iraq War, Vietnam war, CEO of Halliburton when they bought Dresser Industries, an asbestos manufacturer with massive liabilities, misidentifying a human being for a bird and shooting the person.

  25. 25
    SatanicPanic says:

    @Mnemosyne: Arnold wasn’t all that socially conservative either. It’s crazy their best hopes are people who probably aren’t even interested. They should run Dana Rohrbacher. It would be fun to watch that dummy debate Jerry Brown.

  26. 26
    mai naem says:

    Is Blount or Donnelly the sex offender? Seriously, Kashnkari can’t even beat the crap out of a sex offender? That’s just sad. I have Kashnkari on my tweeterfeed. He started out as almost a liberal republican and then I guess the NRG sent him off to GOP candidate finishing school and he comes out as a pro-choice and pro-gay rights but also pro-gun rights. Hr says he has a rifle – for what? who knows? I cannot see this guy hunting anything, even a varmint. And then, he’s got a bug up his butt about what he calls the “Crazy Train”? Supposedly the high speed train from SF to LA is going to cost $500 B as in Billion which I have to admit blows me away too.

  27. 27
    Origuy says:

    I didn’t know anything about Kashkari, so I read his Wikipedia entry. He’s a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, libertarian Republican who’s a practicing Hindu. That’s going to go over really well with the Californian Republican base. Plus he ran TARP under Bush, which the right wing thinks is Obama’s fault.

  28. 28
    BGinCHI says:

    I could name some Union Civil War generals, but they are dead.

    Or are they!!?? A CNN Special Report……

  29. 29
    SFAW says:

    @BGinCHI:

    Or are they!!?? A CNN Special Report……

    Fortunately, I had already swallowed my coffee when I read that.

    I don’t remember what CNN was like when they started out, but these days, it’s like the insanity of the Rethug clown car melded with the Weekly World News (BatBoyz’R’Us)

    Anybody asking Don “Where’s That Tinfoil for My Hat?” Lemon to check into the idea that MH 370 was swallowed by the TARDIS? Hey, it could happen.

  30. 30

    @Origuy: I have to agree and I don’t see that changing even if he finds Jeebus like Jindal or Haley.

  31. 31
    dedc79 says:

    Using the double-negative-ish phrasing “I wouldn’t underestimate…” is an immediate tell that what follows is a bunch of bs speculation.

    When he’s wrong, he gets to say “Hey, I never said he’d win, just that he shouldn’t be underestimated.”

  32. 32
    Ken in NJ says:

    I haven’t read the comments yet, but given that there already are some, count me among the inevitable multitude of votes for Bill Kristol on this one.

    You could probably go with Palin, as well – but only for the issues that require more thought than a single six word sentence.

  33. 33
  34. 34

    Speaking of stupid pundits, I think I may have found the most clueless Punditubbie ever, he writes a weekly about India for NYT International edition. He holds up Mr World is Flat Nilekani, the ex CEO of Infosys, and another bankster who was the CEO of Royal Bank of Scotland’s operation in India as examples of idealistic new politicians who will save India.

    *Since there is a long time for the elections yet and the constant doom and gloom about the Democrats’ chances is getting me down. I have become obsessed with the Indian elections which are next month.

  35. 35
    geg6 says:

    @Elizabelle:

    I used to write all the time, especially to publications to which I subscribed. No one ever answered and they obviously don’t care.

  36. 36
    geg6 says:

    @jonas:

    “The Next Sixth Months” Friedman deserves honorable mention.

    Yes, I agree.

  37. 37
    Roger Moore says:

    @jonas: @Origuy:
    Bear in mind that California now has an open primary, so it’s theoretically possible to win by courting enough non-crazy Republicans in the primary to finish a distant second (while the crazy vote is split eleventy ways) and then win the general election by peeling off enough centrist Democrats to win. I’m not saying it’s a likely outcome, but it’s not completely crazy. The whole point of the open primary was to make it easier for centrist candidates to win.

  38. 38
    Mike E says:

    That retired general on Hannity who said the passenger jet would turn up in Pakistan. Oh, and the list compiled above tho I wouldn’t include Cheney ’cause he is Opposite Man, literally, and all contenders are pikers compared to ol’ Darth.

  39. 39
    Scott S. says:

    @geg6: Readers are there to receive the Holy Wisdom from their Village betters. Peons daring to speak to their social superiors? What nerve!

  40. 40
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @SFAW:

    I don’t remember what CNN was like when they started out

    I do. They had a lot of young reporters, anchors and producers who were committed to getting the story right and reporting the facts. Yes, there was a lot of learning on the job (mistakes were made). There was a lot of sludge and fluff (fludge?) used to feed the insatiable maw of a 24/7 cable channel. By by god, they were often the only media outlet covering an important news story. I vividly remember Tom Brokaw giving huge on-air props to CNN in the early days of the first Gulf War. They were getting footage that other networks, including NBC, had to use (and credit) because they didn’t have good coverage of their own. And even earlier, CNN was the only network that stuck around to cover the Challenger launch, thus the only one with live footage of both the explosion and the reactions of folks on the ground.

    Makes me both sad and furious to see what has become of it. I know a few former CNN folks, and they feel exactly the same.

  41. 41
    Bill Arnold says:

    Not quite the same thing, but Scott Supak reported making consistent money off of wingnuts on InTrade (back when it existed).
    Also, one can monetize even a slight tendency to wrongness, e.g. reliable 55% wrongness.

  42. 42
    SFAW says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Thanks. That was sort of the sense I had, but in those days, I didn’t have cable, so it was hit-or-miss for me on stuff like that.

  43. 43
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    I have become obsessed with the Indian elections which are next month.

    Québec is also holding elections next month, and it sounds from a couple of anecdotes in this story that they’re into their own kind of voter suppression.

  44. 44
    kindness says:

    Jerry Brown is a lock here in Ca. Bet the kids College Fund on it.

  45. 45
    joel hanes says:

    also-rans deserving mention

    Virginia Foxx
    Christine O’Donnell
    Sarah Palin
    James Inhofe
    Paul Broun
    Louie Gohmert
    Steve King
    Michele Bachmann
    Charles Krauthammer
    James Taranto
    Victor Hansen Davis
    Betsy McCaughey

  46. 46
    dollared says:

    But sadly, I wouldn’t underestimate Neil Kashkari. In the 2 years after he gets his 4% of the vote in this election, he will earn more than I will earn in my lifetime.

    You just need to understand the goal, not the immediate action.

  47. 47
    GregB says:

    Don’t rule out a late surge of Kashkarimentum.

  48. 48
    jl says:

    @kindness:

    ” Jerry Brown is a lock here in Ca. Bet the kids College Fund on it. ”

    Brown won against a ferocious and expensive (and ferociously and expensively incompetent) Whitman campaign. The first half of it, Brown’s campaign was so zenned out, it was hard to tell he was running.

    With the new primary campaign laws, some Dem could enter and have a good chance to freeze the GOP out.

    Only problem Dems have in CA is that three state legislators are now under indictment for corruption, which could be used against the party in the next election.

  49. 49
    Splitting Image says:

    If William Kristol called heads and Dick Morris called tails, I would bet money on the coin landing on its edge.

    No votes for John McCain and Lindsey Graham?

  50. 50
    jonas says:

    @Roger Moore: That’s right — I moved out of state a couple of years ago and forgot about the new open primaries. What this means, of course, is that because Brown is such a shoe-in, Dem primary voters are free to cast votes for the most insane Republican — make sure Brown goes up against a complete loon who favors stoning of sodomites, wants to eliminate vaccinations because they prevent God from using disease as a scourge against the sinful, and annex Yosemite Valley for fracking.

  51. 51

    @SiubhanDuinne: That’s bad. Don’t know much about Quebec, I was there one winter, in the old Quebec City, pretty but very cold.

  52. 52
  53. 53
    Culture of Truth says:

    Bill Kristol, as mentioned. I’m sure there others, like Krauthammer or the rest of the crew, but they’re not prominent or so wonderfully smug in their certainty and utter wrongness

  54. 54
    ultraviolet thunder says:

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    That’s bad. Don’t know much about Quebec, I was there one winter, in the old Quebec City, pretty but very cold.

    I was in Ottawa one (US) Memorial day and it snowed an inch (2.54cm). When a Detroiter thinks you have goofy weather it’s pretty bad.

  55. 55
    Howlin Wolfe says:

    @DWD: Maybe you were beaten by seconds (my waisteline is beaten by thirds) but you get props for using “urform”.

  56. 56
    BGinCHI says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: I assume he holds the Irony Chair of Glibertarian Politics at George Mason.

  57. 57
    Joey Maloney says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: If you can find it, watch some footage of the original, original Crossfire – Tom Braden and Pat Buchanan. First of all, you’ll be shocked to see Crazy Uncle Pat sounding almost lucid. But more than that – no shouting, no soundbites, no talking-points-past-each-other: two guys who deeply disagree actually engaging on an issue.

  58. 58
    Violet says:

    OT–Chris Christie’s internal investigation clears him. Shocker!

    (Reuters) – An investigation commissioned by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie into the “Bridgegate” scandal on Thursday cleared the potential Republican presidential contender of wrongdoing and blamed key staffers for orchestrating the massive traffic jam.

    The internal review was conducted by a law firm hired by Christie, whose top staffers have been accused of planning the traffic tie-up at the George Washington Bridge in September 2013 as political payback after Mayor Mark Sokolich of Fort Lee, New Jersey, declined to endorse Christie’s re-election.

    Throw the staffers under the bus!

  59. 59
    burnspbesq says:

    I like Kashkari, but he has one huge problem in trying to appeal to California Republicans: he’s fundamentally sane.

  60. 60
    les says:

    @joel hanes:
    I don’t know, hard to put La Palin in the “always wrong” category, since she so seldom (ever?) says anything of enough substance to tell right from wrong.

  61. 61
    ultraviolet thunder says:

    @les:

    I don’t know, hard to put La Palin in the “always wrong” category, since she so seldom (ever?) says anything of enough substance to tell right from wrong.

    Then we need a Never Right category just for her.

  62. 62
    Violet says:

    @ultraviolet thunder: Isn’t her category Word Salad? She’s not wrong and she’s not right. She just makes no sense whatsoever.

  63. 63
    ultraviolet thunder says:

    @Violet:

    Isn’t her category Word Salad? She’s not wrong and she’s not right. She just makes no sense whatsoever.

    She’s a Language Anarchist. Society’s arbitrary rules cannot control her.

  64. 64
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @ultraviolet thunder: @Violet: Yeah, the category of “Huh?” seems to be the best fit. “What the fuck?” would would also work.

  65. 65
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Joey Maloney:

    I will try to find it! Thanks.

    O/T: James Schlesinger has died age 85. I disagreed with him on a bunch of things but never had the visceral hatred of him that I had for so many others of that era. And I figure, anyone who detested Kissinger the way he did has to have some good points.

  66. 66
    Montanareddog says:

    The always wrong team on the right is not small but, for me, Dick Morris beats them all hands down just ‘cos of the marvellously sleazy shitbaggery.

    On a related note, my friends and I have a regular discussion on who is the turkey bellwether for Hollywood; who consistently chooses the absolutely crappiest film projects. We are not talking Steven Seagal or goons of the kind, but supposed A-listers.My proposal for the currently active champion is John Travolta – apart from a two game winning streak in the mid-90s (Pulp Fiction and Get Shorty) nobody has the strung together such a miss-rate of premium grade garbage.

    If I see Travolta is in the cast – don’t need to read the critics before not spending my disposable income.

  67. 67
    dubo says:

    @jonas: These guys are definitely taking home the medals, but their wrongness often seems to be in “say something I know is wrong in the hope that it comes true if I just say it enough” category.

    Joke Line deserves a special mention for constant cluelessness that doesn’t seem to be attached to a particular agenda

  68. 68
    ultraviolet thunder says:

    @Montanareddog:

    chooses the absolutely crappiest film projects. We are not talking Steven Seagal or goons of the kind, but supposed A-listers.My proposal for the currently active champion is John Travolta

    Yup. It’s different from, say, Tom Cruise who makes undemanding and mediocre films. Travolta appears in big budget stinkeroos. From Battlefield Earth on down.

  69. 69
    Violet says:

    @Montanareddog: What? No love for “Battlefield Earth”?

    Sorry, can’t even type that with a straight face.

  70. 70
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Scott S.: They should also watch their tone, the rabble.

  71. 71

    @Montanareddog: Matt Damon, for pretentious fluff. The movie sounds good when you read about it but the actual movie is a dud. Syriana and The Good Shepherd, are my examples.

  72. 72
    ultraviolet thunder says:

    @Violet:
    I saw Battlefield Earth all the way through the day it opened, by chance. Hadn’t read any reviews. At first I was waiting for it to get good. Then I was riveted to my seat in fascinated horror at the awfulness.
    After the credits we went back to the lobby to warn people off.

  73. 73
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Violet: Chris Christie makes Jabba the Hutt look like a wonderful human being.

  74. 74

    @ultraviolet thunder:

    There is no down from Battlefield Earth

  75. 75
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Culture of Truth: Antonin “Fat Tony” Scalia. Claims he’s absolutely right about everything. Well, for say 1375 or so, probably.

  76. 76

    @ultraviolet thunder:

    Fun fact: Battlefield Earth was, at one time, Mitt Romney’s favorite novel.

  77. 77
    Violet says:

    @Montanareddog: Adam Sandler, except with him you know what you’re going to get so it’s not like there’s any hope of it being a serious film. His “acting” style worked when he was younger but now it’s just sad.

    Jim Carrey is in a similar boat.

  78. 78
    Gex says:

    @les: She rarely utters anything that actually parses out into a sentence.

  79. 79
    🍀 Martin says:

    @Montanareddog: I’d throw in Liam Neeson. Prior to Star Wars he picked pretty solid winners and was certainly headed to A-list status. Since then he’s done 731 movies, and Batman and Gangs of New York are about the only good ones. The move to action hero has been his undoing.

  80. 80

    @🍀 Martin: All those prequels were an abomination.

  81. 81
    Violet says:

    @🍀 Martin: What about Harrison Ford? Seems like a lot of his later movies have been duds.

  82. 82
    Belafon says:

    @Montanareddog: Michael Ironside is a bellweather for me, the closer to the top of the list of actors, the worse is going to be. It’s not that he’s necessarily a bad actor, but the movie projects that need him generally mean they’re going to suck. The only thing that saved XMen: First Class was that he was right at the end of the movie.

  83. 83
    🍀 Martin says:

    @Violet: Yeah, unfortunately I think you’re right on that. I don’t blame him for the latest Indy though. That certainly looked like it shouldn’t have sucked, right up until it did. Don’t know what he was thinking with Enders Game.

  84. 84
    🍀 Martin says:

    @Belafon:

    Michael Ironside

    He’s different, and I always seek out his films because you know they’re going to be low budget over the top SyFy network schlock. And if you know that going in, then you can get in the proper frame of mind to enjoy them.

  85. 85
    WereBear says:

    @Belafon: Yeah, I’m a fan. But like Michael Biehn, the movies tend to suck.

    But they are fun to watch.

  86. 86
  87. 87
    Violet says:

    @🍀 Martin: Probably thinking about a paycheck. I think Harrison Ford could redeem himself by taking some small roles in some good films. The kind of thing that gets talked about but isn’t the main part of the film. Shows you actually can act. Then you get bigger and better roles.

  88. 88
    rk says:

    @Montanareddog:

    M. Night. Shayamalam. Has he ever made a good movie after “The Sixth Sense”.

  89. 89
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Elizabelle: why don’t we — in our private lives — write to the media outlets that employ these stooges and ask why they do?

    When I was angrier– these days I’m just fucking tired, politically, this fucking Hobby Lobby suit makes me feel like I’ve fallen through the looking glass– I used to e-mail pundits. I got replies from a few, John Dickerson, Froma Harrop, one or two others. Maureen Dowd appeared unmoved by my regular suggestions she needs a sabbatical, then I just gave up reading her. I think a lot of people have. I can’t remember I saw one of her columns quoted, either respectfully by a Villager or even mockingly by a blogger.

  90. 90
    Roger Moore says:

    @ultraviolet thunder:

    Yup. It’s different from, say, Tom Cruise who makes undemanding and mediocre films.

    Cruise makes a lot of undemanding and mediocre films because he’s a bankable star® who gets brought in to make sure a movie with a mediocre plot and second rate director will still earn money. He’s actually capable of being a good actor when he has a script and director who demand it of him, but most of the time he’s only called on to play a movie star, a role he’s equally good at.

  91. 91
    shelly says:

    Dick Morris is like Ivory Soap. 99.9% purely wrong.

  92. 92
    raven says:

    @Roger Moore: He was really good as Ron Kovic.

  93. 93
    Steeplejack says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    What you said. Plus Lynne Russell. Woof!

  94. 94
    Belafon says:

    @🍀 Martin: Terminator Salvation – It wasn’t bad because of him, but it just wasn’t a great movie.

  95. 95
    Paul in KY says:

    @geg6: That was my choice for the ‘could say water is wet & be wrong’ prize!

  96. 96
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @raven: I just watched that. Hillarious to see Scarborough mock bloggers by pretending to be on an old manual typewriter. Remember when you had to hit that big return key? I barely do and I’m pushing fifty. And a Cheetos joke, cause I guess it’s 2003. Mika reacted as if this was naughtiest, cleverest witticism she ever heard. I think Zbigniew dropped her on her head (Aristocratic immigrants. Not the gross kind!)

  97. 97
    Fair Economist says:

    @ultraviolet thunder:

    I don’t know, hard to put La Palin in the “always wrong” category, since she so seldom (ever?) says anything of enough substance to tell right from wrong.

    Then we need a Never Right category just for her.

    Palin’s pronouncements are definitely in the “not even wrong” category – and for that reason, you can’t bet against her.

  98. 98
    Roger Moore says:

    @raven:
    He was excellent in The Color of Money and Rain Man. I even liked him in Collateral. I haven’t seen it, but I’ve heard good things about him in Tropic Thunder. He just needs to be asked to act.

  99. 99
    Steeplejack says:

    @ultraviolet thunder:

    I, too, saw Battlefield Earth in the theater, I want to say in Austin, TX. Anyway, there was a big contingent of graphics nerds whose company had worked on the movie, and throughout the general awfulness there were outbreaks of applause at weirdly inappropriate (to the layman) moments, like “Yay! CGI spaceship panning shot! Way to go, Sean and Nikki!”

  100. 100
    sherparick says:

    @jonas: I was wondering if someone would remember the Moustache.One, the inventor of the Friedman unit.

  101. 101
    Ash Can says:

    @SatanicPanic:

    They should run Dana Rohrbacher.

    Dana Rohrabacher lost the majority of CA Republicans with this little imbroglio.

  102. 102
    Roger Moore says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Remember when you had to hit that big return key?

    I remember having to take my hand away from the keyboard and hit an actual carriage return. I’m not that old, but my school had some ancient typewriters in the typing class. Just talking about it reminds me of the smell of an old manual typewriter.

  103. 103
    sherparick says:

    I was wondering if someone had remembered the Moustache One, the inventor of the Friedman unit. And their are a host of rightwing economists who have been predicting “Inflation, Wiemar, Zimbabwe!!! since January 2009.”

  104. 104
    catclub says:

    @SatanicPanic: “best hopes are people who probably aren’t even interested.”
    Dwight Eisenhower!

  105. 105
    Joel says:

    Jerry Brown made California solvent. The Republicans are doing their part to promote economic stimulus by running burner campaigns against him.

  106. 106
    Steeplejack says:

    @Violet:

    Shows you actually can act.

    Re Harrison Ford, assumes facts not in evidence.

    Hey, I like Harrison Ford—he has been in a lot of good movies—but has he ever been more than an amiable himbo? I don’t recall a lot of heavy lifting, even in Blade Runner.

    ETA: This sounds too harsh. I really do like Harrison Ford, but maybe my opinion has been affected by the increasingly awful movies he has been in. A really steep downward glide path.

  107. 107
    MomSense says:

    @raven:

    HA!!

  108. 108
    MattF says:

    Krauthammer has been mentioned a couple of times… I’ll just note that Krauthammer’s wrongness is unusually venomous. He’ll say anything if he thinks it might weaken Obama.

  109. 109
    catclub says:

    @rk: ” Has he ever made a good movie after “The Sixth Sense””

    you know that most people have never even made any movie at all.

    Pachelbel had about one hit, but the other 99.9% of composers from his day are not heard at all.
    demanding that he surpass the other one (JSB) is asking kind of a lot.

  110. 110
    catclub says:

    @Steeplejack: “A really steep downward glide path.”

    Not an AIR FORCE ONE fan?

  111. 111
    SatanicPanic says:

    @Ash Can: Uggggh that almost put me off my lunch. Gross

  112. 112
    Central Planning says:

    It’s not politics, but Jim Cramer is always wrong about stocks.

  113. 113
    Steeplejack says:

    @catclub:

    Har-de-har-har.

  114. 114
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @catclub: Pachelbel had about one hit,

    That cracked me up.

  115. 115
    catclub says:

    @mai naem: “I cannot see this guy hunting anything, even a varmint.”

    Sacred Cows!

  116. 116

    Speaking of brilliant economists who are always wrong, what about Greenspan or fatbody Summers?

  117. 117
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Steeplejack:

    Our office was in CNN Center for years, so I would often see her (and lots of other recognizable folks) nearly every day, in the food court or heading for the escalator.

    Did you know that during all those years she was on CNN and CNN Headline News, she was also a sheriff’s deputy and a private detective? Very cool lady.

  118. 118
    Ash Can says:

    @SatanicPanic: I have a feeling the GOP 1%-ers in CA — you know, the ones actually running the show — aren’t ever going to forget that (or let him forget it). Harrassing the poor, the brahs, and the tree-huggers is one thing, but inflicting a blight on an affluent neighborhood — one populated by the very heart of your voting base, no less — is unforgivable.

  119. 119
    Elizabelle says:

    Peter Baker of the New York Times, formerly of the Washington Post, is a slippery reporter with very good GOP sources. FWIW.

  120. 120
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Central Planning: I’m not sure that pumping and dumping counts as “wrong” in this particular context.

  121. 121
    Tom Scudder says:

    106 – go find a copy of The Mosquito Coast.

  122. 122
    WereBear says:

    @raven: He also has the rare ability to look good while running really fast.

    Well, Jason Statham can do it, but he’s a martial artist.

  123. 123
    Roger Moore says:

    @Ash Can:
    The 1% may resent it behind closed doors and while there’s an alternative around, but when it comes to picking between Rohrbacher and and anyone with a (D) after their name, you know what they’ll do.

  124. 124
    raven says:

    @Roger Moore: He was pretty funny in Thunder but it took me forever to figure out who he was.

    eta Jack Reacher wasn’t horrible.

  125. 125
    WereBear says:

    @Steeplejack: I really do like Harrison Ford, but maybe my opinion has been affected by the increasingly awful movies he has been in.

    Acting is a tough gig. Because before you can be IN a good movie, there has to BE one.

    Also, it’s a rare quality to be able to read a whole script and figure that out. As we can see…

  126. 126
    WereBear says:

    @raven: I really liked Jack Reacher! Well done, good adaptation, and a really good car chase which is getting harder & harder to do.

  127. 127
    Roger Moore says:

    @WereBear:

    He also has the rare ability to look good while running really fast.

    So does Will Smith, and ISTR that young Dustin Hoffman was pretty good in that department, too.

  128. 128
    Steeplejack says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Yeah, I knew that. Just hope she wasn’t in the Steven Seagal mode.

    I used to love to go to that Rizzoli bookstore in the Omni/CNN complex.

  129. 129
    Steeplejack says:

    @Tom Scudder:

    Saw it. Thought it was meh.

  130. 130
    Steeplejack says:

    @raven:

    Jack Reacher is actually pretty good, but you have to go in knowing that the main character has almost nothing to do with the Lee Child novels.

  131. 131
    R. Johnston says:

    In Foundation’s Edge and Foundation and Earth Issac Asimov centered the story around a character, Golan Trevize, whose importance lied in the fact that he had the knack of drawing proper conclusions on seemingly inadequate information. There are, in this world, far too many anti-Trevizes, people who have the knack of drawing wrong conclusions despite having clearly more than adequate evidence to arrive at the right conclusion.

  132. 132
    raven says:

    @Steeplejack: I knew zip, guess that helped. I half-way liked Duvall and I’ve really had it with him. Sidelight, we watched “The Outfit” with him from 73 and it was good.

  133. 133
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Steeplejack:

    That was a wonderful bookstore! But the best was always the Rizzoli in NYC, just down from Carnegie Hall IIRC.

  134. 134
    Ian says:

    The noisemax at the side of the website is tempting us with another Rick Perry presidential run. For once, I pray the damn thing is right.

  135. 135

    @SatanicPanic: How do we make this happen?

  136. 136
    Tommy says:

    Maybe me! I find I am good at review and comment. Predicting the future, I am rarely right. Often far off the mark.

    The Malaysian Airline flight well I had that one right.

  137. 137
    mwbugg says:

    @sherparick: since Jan, 2009, Larry Kudlow, Donald Luskin and Larry Kudlow have been consistently wrong. You could have made good money doing the opposite of their financial recommendations.

  138. 138
    Tommy says:

    @mwbugg: I work in technology. Have for more then two decades. Often with insider info and I can’t predict tech stocks. Anybody that says they can predict stocks is a fool.

  139. 139
    Turgidson says:

    @Steeplejack:

    I think he did some actual acting in the Indiana Jones movies (not the latest one so much). Particularly his partnership with Sean Connery as his dad. Han Solo had a few moments too. Maybe the Fugitive.

  140. 140
    MomSense says:

    @Steeplejack:

    What about Witness, the Fugitive, or Regarding Henry.

  141. 141
    Trollhattan says:

    @jl:

    Am concerned the blowback from three felonious Democratic state senators will be loss of the supermajority and the return of Republicans fillibustering everything that’s not demonstrably pro-gunz&ammo.

    Would be remiss if I didn’t highlight the other two Republicans who would be governor:

    –Rootin’ tootin’ shootin’ Tim Donnelly says his prior felony was just a drunken college prank that got way out of hand, yo, and he since quit drinkin’ and embraced gunz, or was it god? Nope, gunz.

    Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Donnelly, who previously denied having any criminal record before carrying a gun into an airport in 2012, was convicted of larceny in Michigan in 1985, The Bee has learned.

    The candidate’s conviction, which carried three years of probation and a $200 fine, came at the end of Donnelly’s freshman year at University of Michigan. He left the school, moved to California and enrolled at University of California, Irvine, that fall. Donnelly, asked earlier this month about any criminal record in Michigan, where he grew up, or any other state, said he had never been convicted of a crime before the incident at the airport two years ago.

    “There’s a lot of rumors,” Donnelly, a state assemblyman from Twin Peaks, told The Bee earlier this month, “and I don’t think you should pay any attention to them.”

    Records searches in Michigan produced no evidence of criminal charges ever being filed against Donnelly. But The Ann Arbor News listed a Timothy Michael Donnelly, age unknown, as receiving a fine and three years of probation for “larceny in a building” in a brief item in June 1985.

    http://www.fresnobee.com/2014/.....rylink=cpy
    Also, too, something about unpaid tax lien against his former bidnez, but taxes are bad so he’s a hero, not a zero, m’kay?

    But the bestest news of all is a fresh candidate, who’s a real Champ. Glenn Champ for governor!

    http://www.champforgovernor.com/

    Wait, what’s this then?

    Champ’s rap sheet is lengthy. Court records show that in 1992, he pleaded guilty to carrying a concealed firearm. In 1993, he was convicted of two counts of assault with intent to commit rape and as a result was placed on the state’s sex-offender registry.

    In March 1998, he accepted a plea deal on a charge of loitering to solicit a prostitute; later that year, he pleaded no contest to a voluntary manslaughter charge after hitting a man with his vehicle, for which he was sentenced to 12 years in state prison, according to court records.

    In an interview Friday, Champ acknowledged his criminal record, which was reported by KMJ radio in Fresno.

    Champ said the assault case “was just for picking up some underage prostitutes” and resulted in a 90-day jail sentence. He said he turned his life around after the incident.

    “I found the Lord when I got arrested for picking up the prostitutes,” Champ said. “I was like most people, ignorant in the darkness, in the very dark. I had no peace, had no love, had no joy. And now I do. Praise God for that…. I’ve grown considerably since I met Christ.”

    He called the voluntary manslaughter case a “tragic accident.”

    –LA Times

  142. 142
    raven says:

    @MomSense:

    American Graffiti

    god what a baby

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2OoxzYqgNY

  143. 143
  144. 144
    SatanicPanic says:

    @ranchandsyrup: It’s an open primary, right? I’m not donating though, I don’t want it that badly.

  145. 145
    MikeJ says:

    @Trollhattan: “There’s a lot of rumors, and I don’t think you should pay any attention to them.”

    That’s got to be the most honest sentence ever to come out of a Republican.

  146. 146
    Paul in KY says:

    @Certified Mutant Enemy: The novel is much better than movie. Which is certainly a comment on the movie.

  147. 147
    Chris says:

    Oh, fuck you, Word Press. (Three things eaten).

    ETA: oh. Right. THAT, you allow through. FUCK you, Word Press.

  148. 148
    Turgidson says:

    @MikeJ:

    Amusing coincidence that he’s from Twin Peaks as well.

  149. 149
    Trollhattan says:

    @Turgidson:

    A big coffee and pie fan, one hopes. If he finds a midget for campaign manager I could really see him taking off.

  150. 150
    Steeplejack says:

    @Turgidson, @MomSense:

    I’m not saying he hasn’t been in some good movies, even great ones. I was reacting—perhaps overreacting—to Violet’s statement that he should “[take] some small roles in some good films. The kind of thing that gets talked about but isn’t the main part of the film. Shows you actually can act.”

    Okay, Harrison Ford can act. I was wrong on the Internet! Or at least exaggerating for rhetorical effect. But I don’t see him acting outside of his narrow zone—amiable action guy—so I don’t see him rehabilitating his career with small roles in other people’s movies.

    I just looked on IMDB. Ford is 71 years old, and what does he have coming up? The Expendables 3, Star Wars: Episode VII and Indiana Jones 5. Shoot me now.

    There is also something called The Age of Adaline, which could be promising:

    A young woman, born at the turn of 20th century, is rendered ageless after an accident. After years of a solitary life, she meets a man who might be worth losing her immortality.

    I just pray Ford is not the love interest. Can’t tell from the billing.

  151. 151
    Chris says:

    @Montanareddog:

    I don’t know if he’s in your Steven Seagal category, but Sam Worthington for me. Saw him in Avatar, Terminator: Salvation, and Clash of the Titans (the first one; I started the second one on an airplane but couldn’t get through even half of it). Wasn’t terribly impressed with The Debt either. I don’t even necessarily dislike him. I just think he has a thing for picking awful movies, so, he fits.

  152. 152
    Chris says:

    @🍀 Martin:

    I liked him in the A-Team movie, easily my favorite of the “eighties action throwback nostalgia” flicks that’ve been cropping up in the last few years. We’d probably agree on most of his other action flicks (and I thought Taken was overrated, though good for one time), but that movie was just crazy fun enough for me to be enjoyable.

    (A lot of fans of the TV show thought it killed it completely. Fortunately for me, I’d never really watched it before, though I’ve seen it all since, so that didn’t ruin it).

  153. 153
    Chris says:

    @Violet:

    I think Harrison Ford could redeem himself by taking some small roles in some good films.

    I’ve been wanting to see him as a villain for some time. Watching Cowboys and Aliens, an otherwise shitty movie, kind of made me wish they’d put him in the Bond franchise as one of Craig’s villains. Never happen, but it’s a thought.

    @Steeplejack:

    Indy 5, that’s actually happening? I thought it was just rumor and fan wishing. The last movie was broadly hated enough that I doubt they’d come back for more… but then, I didn’t think they’d be making Star Wars sequels either. Ah, well.

  154. 154
    Steeplejack says:

    @Chris:

    It’s on IMDB, so it must be true!

    Though status is “announced,” which is their most nebulous category, I believe.

  155. 155
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Steeplejack:

    Nah, Ford will play the hero’s crusty father, or perhaps the previous love interest who was left behind and shows up at a dramatic moment, like in “Long Live Walter Jameson.” He definitely won’t be the romantic lead.

  156. 156
    Steeplejack says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    By the way, Warren William sausage-fest on TCM this morning. He is such a loathsome horndog in every movie, even when he’s the hero, and yet I love him.

  157. 157
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Steeplejack:

    D’oh! I haven’t been working on my blog or keeping up with TCM, so I missed it. :-(

  158. 158
    Steeplejack says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    He makes even Perry Mason’s relationship with Della Street seem dirty.

    I think today’s star was actually Mary Astor. I always picture her in The Maltese Falcon, where she’s positively matronly, and I forget how hot she was back in the early ’30s. Okay, hotter, relatively speaking. Not really my cup of tea.

    I watched Upperworld and The Case of the Howling Dog.

  159. 159
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Steeplejack:

    In a weird way, Astor got to be a sex symbol because of what she did outside of movies, not in any particular movie.

    She’s hilariously filthy in The Palm Beach Story, though. Isn’t it always about “Topic A,” darling?

  160. 160
    Steeplejack says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    I never thought of her as a sex symbol. Attractive leading lady, sure. In Upperworld she is the long-suffering wife, in The Case of the Howling Dog she is a slightly mousy murder suspect. I started to watch Men of Chance, in which she gets entrapped in a bogus solicitation arrest and may or may not be a working girl, but I turned it off because I had to concentrate on my computer work and was slightly sheepish about once again getting sucked into the Warren William vortex.

  161. 161

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