Back to equilibrium

Political Wire had the following two stories.  To me, this seems to say the roll-out damage is over and equilibrium to the political environment is being restored.  Right now the political environment may be stabilizing at neutral to Dem plus 2 or 3. 

 

2014-01-29 PP

78 replies
  1. 1
    Yatsuno says:

    The Democratic challenger for the Senate seat in South Dakota was just six points behind the reasonable Republican. There is a three way primary race and the far-right teanut will win. So I’m not ruling that one out just yet. Hey even another Heitkamp that’s a D is better than the teanut.

  2. 2
    Elizabelle says:

    It’s early, but I like Democrats’ chances better than Republicans’ this fall.

    Obamacare, by whatever name, is going to make a solid difference in many lives. Its presence removes some existential angst that those with proper insurance cannot fathom.

    And the Republicans are divided, and with nothing to offer but selfishness and platitudes.

    Although they get the cover of media, little that they deserve it.

    Thank you, Richard, for posting this.

  3. 3
    Paul W. says:

    I don’t think the Senate is in as much danger as has been hyped. Nonetheless, we need to fight like hell just to stand still in off years so don’t let your guard down.

  4. 4
    Elizabelle says:

    @Yatsuno:

    Good luck to you. Woe to those Tri-Citiers if they let but a month dissuade them from bringing you on board.

    Although maybe Seattle is not done with you yet.

  5. 5
    Gin & Tonic says:

    @Elizabelle: Obamacare, by whatever name, is going to make a solid difference in many lives.

    I’m sure it will. The trick will be in getting those people to vote.

  6. 6
    Elizabelle says:

    @Paul W.:

    Yeah, I am not going to be gloom and doom about the Senate.

    In Virginia, Mark Warner would seem to have a pretty safe seat. Even so, it was marvelous to see John Warner, moderate Republican, endorsing him months before anybody would be asking him to do so.

    He’s not the only one fed up with Republican lunacy, coupled with malfeasance. And John Warner is a rich man with a secure retirement.

  7. 7

    ZOMG UNSKEW THOSE SO THEY COMPORT WITH MY WINGNUT BELIEFS!?! CENTER RIGHT NATION AND ARGLEBARGLE

  8. 8
    muricafukyea says:

    Odds are slim but it would be so sweet if McConnell lost mainly due to the successful roll our of the ACA there. That would explode a lot of Republican heads.

  9. 9
    Ash Can says:

    I don’t think the glitchy roll-out happened anywhere near close enough to the election to have an appreciable effect. However…

    @Paul W.:

    don’t let your guard down.

    This too.

  10. 10
    EriktheRed says:

    As much as I like reading this news I can’t help but think that the Teabaggger states are gonna still elect Teabaggers this November.

  11. 11
    David in NY says:

    I was seeing that the Republicans have been oohing and aahing over the nice-lady response to the SOTU address, and some (Ed Kilgore?) have been wondering why. My guess is the smart(?) money among the Republicans thinks that if they just smile, and cut the crap, they’ll coast to a big win. No more Angle or Akin and they’re in.

    Problem is, this could be true. But it omits the possibility that Obamacare may not be a negative in nine months and may even be a positive. Also omits the even stronger possibility that the Akin-Angle fever will strike again.

    It being too far out to tell, maybe I’ll give some money where it might help. DSCC? Any suggestions on who really needs it? I know we’re in trouble in a number of places so it shouldn’t be too hard to find who’s in need.

  12. 12
    Sophist says:

    I really hope that the Republicans keep making the glitchy rollout a centerpiece of their campaigns. The more months that pass the less relevant it becomes, and the more petty they look for harping on it.

  13. 13
    Roger Moore says:

    @Yatsuno:

    Hey even another Heitkamp that’s a D is better than the teanut.

    Someone in a permanent vegetative state would be preferable to a teanut.

  14. 14
    Anoniminous says:

    The GOP over the top gerrymandering starts going squishy this election. A solid GOTV operation in every Congressional district means grabbing some House seats, grabbing state legislative seats, and keeping the Senate.

  15. 15
    Elizabelle says:

    @muricafukyea:

    I live in Virginia and am planning to do some driving to canvass/knock a bunch of doors against Kentucky’s senior senator. Suspect others will do the same. It and North Carolina are nearby and potentially winnable Senate seats this fall.

    And some Kentuckians might come to like healthcare access more than they loathe voting for Democrats.

    Greg Sargent: Hitting Mitch McConnell over healthcare in Kentucky

    In yesterday’s speech, President Obama gave a shout-out to Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear, citing his tireless efforts to expand Obamacare coverage to his own constituents in a deep red state. As enrollment mounts, Mitch McConnell has refused to directly answer questions about Kentuckians befitting from the law.

    Counter-intuitively, some Kentucky Dems believe McConnell will ultimately face a reckoning on this issue. There is no more experienced McConnell watcher and antagonist then Dem Rep. John Yarmuth, so when he says McConnell is cornered, it’s worth listening.

    “Who knows how many hundreds of thousands will eventually have coverage who didn’t before — and Mitch would take it away from them,” Yarmuth, of the Third District in Louisville, told me. “I think it opens up some pretty strong vulnerabilities.”

    What’s with the “counter-intuitively”?

    … “I would suggest Alison attack Mitch for wanting to take health coverage away when he is boasting about having gotten health care to one guy,” Yarmuth said. (Alison Lundergan Grimes has been cautious on the ACA, standing up for its expansion of coverage but generally avoiding the topic.)

    I pointed out polls show Obamacare is very unpopular in Kentucky. “Clearly when you put the Obamacare tag on it, there isn’t a great response,” Yarmuth replied. He pointed out Grimes never voted for the law, adding: ”Alison can point to the need for it to be improved and then talk about how Mitch only wants to repeal it, which an overwhelming amount of Kentuckians don’t want to do…in 29 years, Kentucky is still basically near the bottom of all the states in health status.”

    Obamacare is very unpopular in Kentucky, but they sure like the Affordable Care Act.

  16. 16
    raven says:

    @Roger Moore: There is a difference?

  17. 17
    Roger Moore says:

    @David in NY:

    I was seeing that the Republicans have been oohing and aahing over the nice-lady response to the SOTU address, and some (Ed Kilgore?) have been wondering why.

    They’re hoping that it will blunt the “Republican War on Women” narrative.

  18. 18
    Patrick says:

    @Gin & Tonic:

    The trick will be in getting those people to vote.

    Yup. That seems to always be the problem.

  19. 19
    Santa Fe says:

    Never underestimate the Republican penchant for saying what they actually believe. I predict many, many more instances between now and election day where Republicans say awful things that turn off significant portions of the electorate.

  20. 20
    feebog says:

    This is pretty good news, and I am hoping the ladies from GA and KY can pull off wins. It sure looks like WV and MT are in the shitter for us, good to hear SD (thanks Yatsuno) may not be a lost cause at this point. They have to win six seats. If either Nunn or Grimes wins that runs the total to seven or eight. In addition to winning those seats, it would be great to increase the number of Democratic women in the Senate.

  21. 21
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    NC’s going to be tricky because Hagen hasn’t shown a massive amount of spine, and it’ll also depend upon the state party getting its act in gear and making the mid-term a referendum on the GOP’s ongoing attempt to seize the title of Dumbest Carolina of the Year.

  22. 22
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    I think that GOP efforts at suppressing the vote and stirring up shit in Milwaukee and Racine during the 2012 election are going bite Walker in the ass. Every AA voter in the state is going to be willing to stand in line for hours if necessary to vote against the GOP. Because they are largely concentrated in Milwaukee, Racine, and Madison, it might not have a huge effect on the state leg, but Walker is statewide. And he is under 50% right now.

  23. 23
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    The loudest evolution denier is their strongest candidate? I know I shouldn’t be surprised, but for fuck’s sake.

    And I assume we’ve all seen the poll that puts Libidobee in the lead for the GOP presidential nomination? A PPP poll, and he ‘leads’ with 16%, but it’s still depressing.

  24. 24
    Patrick says:

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    NC’s going to be tricky because Hagen hasn’t shown a massive amount of spine,

    Refusing to attend Obama’s event in NC didn’t help.

  25. 25
    Citizen_X says:

    @David in NY:

    My guess is the smart(?) money among the Republicans thinks that if they just smile, and cut the crap, they’ll coast to a big win. No more Angle or Akin and they’re in.

    Pah. See “Davis, Wendy, Republican reaction to.”

    They will show their asses. That’s what they do.

  26. 26
    Yatsuno says:

    @feebog: I wouldn’t even write off Montana yet. I forget his name but the guy who’s running is Schweitzer’s lieutenant gov. and he’s won statewide office before. Plus Schweitzer is still a force there as well, so that might make it a race.

  27. 27
    Roger Moore says:

    @Citizen_X:

    They will show their asses. That’s what they do.

    That’s what they think they need to do to win the nomination.

  28. 28
    jl says:

    @Citizen_X: It will be difficult to keep the GOPers creepy authoritarian, sex-obsessed mentality in check. I read that Huckabee’s bizarre harangue about Uncle Sugar keeps them lusty wimmins enslaved to constant sexy time with all the free birth control pills seems to have made him the teabagger’s Savior of the Week, and he leads polls for 2016 now. Huckabee noticed it soon enough to get out some fundraiser emails before his couple of weeks are up, or before someone else said something weird enough to become the poll leader.

  29. 29
    KG says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I don’t want to say “I told you so” mostly because it’s still a long way until 2016, but, yeah… I’ve been saying since about November 10, 2012, that the 2016 GOP nomination’s was Huckabee’s to lose.

  30. 30
    Yatsuno says:

    @KG: He’ll lose the Presidency. Ol’ Huck has a shit ton of skeletons to answer for from when he was governour of Arkansas. And he bloody well knows it.

  31. 31
    KG says:

    @Yatsuno: oh, I never said he’d be president, just that he’d win the nomination. He finished second in 2008, he’s a former governor, a preacher man, and can stick it to libtards with a smile on his face. Basically, he ticks off every quality the wingnuts think they need to win the presidency.

    Which is totally accurate, in 1979.

  32. 32
    J.D. Rhoades says:

    @David in NY:

    My guess is the smart(?) money among the Republicans thinks that if they just smile, and cut the crap, they’ll coast to a big win. No more Angle or Akin and they’re in.

    But recent history shows they can’t maintain sanity over any distance. They literally cannot help themselves.

  33. 33
    Cluttered Mind says:

    @Gin & Tonic: Allowing them to vote is more like it.

  34. 34
    aimai says:

    @Sophist: They seem to have an inexhaustible fund of new outrages, but they also seem to hang on to old outrages long past their sell by date with the general public. As Roy over at Alicublog is always observing, more in exasperated astonishment than anything else “Don’t they know any ordinary people?” If you read over at free republic or sites like that they are so embedded in their own jargon and their own mythical history that its like listening to Catskill comics just shouting out the number of the routine they are performing, without bothering to act it out. “Number 23! Benghazi! Solyndra! 15!”

  35. 35
    Cluttered Mind says:

    @Yatsuno: If he runs against Hillary Clinton, then his shady past in Arkansas is almost certainly going to come up. Given the strength and reach of the Clinton political machine, particularly in its own home state, Hillary will bury Huckabee.

  36. 36

    Me, writing in 2010: “I think US national policy has returned to its habitual deadlock. It’s not clear to me that this deadlock will be broken in less than a decade.” I have seen nothing since to persuade me I am wrong. This is Not A Good Thing, since we face many challenges.

  37. 37
    Schlemizel says:

    @KG:

    That would not make the Koch suckers happy & they have chosen the last few gooper candidates. Now it has helped that Boy Blunder could play both sides but Daddy, Dole, Walnuts and Willard were not beloved by baggers and xianists. I think given those last two lost TO A BLACK MAN!!! that an attempt to pick a “reasonable” candidate will lead to a full-on bloody fight. I fervently hope it leads to the destruction of the GOP.

    I am not gloating about the House or the Senate just yet. I believe the House is gamed at the state level & won’t flip and, unless there are a lot of nutters running, the Senate is at risk. I play on working & donating as if that is a sure thing while hoping my natural pessimism is unwarranted.

  38. 38
    Eric U. says:

    they can’t stop themselves, if Huckabee can’t control his misogyny, none of them can.

  39. 39
    srv says:

    Here’s what a real man is going to do:

    Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Tuesday that his state party’s vote this past weekend to censure him for being insufficiently conservative might make him more likely to seek another term in 2016.

    “If there’s such a thing as motivation to more seriously consider it, it’s what just happened,” McCain told the AP.

  40. 40
    Roger Moore says:

    @aimai:

    “Don’t they know any ordinary people?”

    A lot of them probably do know plenty of non-wingnuts, as shown by the number of posters here who complain about receiving every wingnut chain email, facebook post, etc. But what those stories also show is that wingnuts are unwilling to listen to their non-wingnut acquaintances on matters of politics.

  41. 41
    KG says:

    @Schlemizel: Huckabee will run on a flat tax or a VAT (extra points for doing away with the income tax and in the fevered dreams of wingnuts, the IRS), and that will be enough to cover the money guys.

  42. 42

    Speaking of Koch-suckers, Mr. McSuderman over at Reason (will not link) sez that Obummer’s presidency is over and the GOP is the only party with fresh new ideas. But he’s a glibertarian so he isn’t just cheerleading the gopers.

  43. 43

    MSM tells me that Obama’s Presidency is over. They are bored and want to cover the horse race. Their attention span is even shorter than that of my kittehs!

  44. 44
  45. 45
    Schlemizel says:

    @KG:
    The flat tax might work for the rubes who can’t do math if they lie about rate enough but VAT? Not just an economy killer the rubes will plotz when they find out everything they want to buy will come with a 25-30% markup. Bring that on!

  46. 46
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @srv: God the old man is terrified of obscurity.

    Let’s hope for a really nasty primary

  47. 47
    Davis X. Machina says:

    @feebog:

    They have to win six seats.

    John Sides has the chances of a Republican senate at 56%….and he does this sort of thing for a living.

    I’d wait a while before doing happy-Snoopy dances.

  48. 48
    srv says:

    We need a president that will bring back the militias and put .50 cal in every home.

  49. 49
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Davis X. Machina: I will neither Snoopy Dance nor hang crepe until September

    ETA:, in the meantime, let’s enjoy the rare Dem who seems to enjoy this kind of stuff
    “You can make a case that Mitch is easier to beat than Bevin,” Yarmuth said in an interview with The Plum Line’s Greg Sargent. “People are tired of him. They see him as the embodiment of government dysfunction. He probably will survive the primary. But he’s going to alienate a number of voters in the primary — it’s going to be nasty — who then will not come out.”

  50. 50
    KG says:

    @Schlemizel: he ran on the “Fair Tax” which was a VAT/national sales tax plan in 2008. I’m sure he’ll do it again because Republicans have a limit of 1 new idea per decade

  51. 51
    Schlemizel says:

    Just did a google on the VAT & it is worse than I thought. Most nations have VAT on EVERYTHING, although a few reduce rates on FOOD! Imagine the heads explode when they find out they they are going to pay an extra 15-25% on the groceries every week. Oh yeah! Please Mr. Huckleberry, please propose a VAT.

  52. 52
    geg6 says:

    @Schlemizel:

    I’ve been seeing a lot of quiet speculation that Mittens thinks he can get back in and win it in 2016. The movie and all his latest media avails are about him rehabbing his image, goes the speculation, plus some unnamed sources are whispering about how he thinks he can beat Hils.

  53. 53
    Schlemizel says:

    @KG:

    I knew he was a flat head but I don’t recall any discussion of VAT. He must not have wanted that to be discussed/

  54. 54
    J.D. Rhoades says:

    @Schlemizel:

    Funny, just a couple of years ago, Charles Krauthammer was railing against the VAT , which he assured us was something Obama was going to impose on us, even though no one had even suggested it. It’s now a Republican “idea”?

  55. 55
    Schlemizel says:

    @geg6:

    Yeah, the baggers would all be on board after the great job he did last time. I don’t doubt he wants to run, I sure agree that there seems to be a real rehad effort going on. I am sure he is the darling of the Koch suckers but the nutters would have the torches & pitchforks out the minute he won an state primary

  56. 56
    J.D. Rhoades says:

    @geg6:

    I’ve been seeing a lot of quiet speculation that Mittens thinks he can get back in and win it in 2016.

    God does not love us that much.

  57. 57
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @geg6: Good lord, I think Willard would be out of the primaries by Valentine’s Day.

    I’m enjoying the little dance between Big Bad Bar and Jebbie. He wants to redeem the family name, she wants to keep it from getting anymore loser-taint till the next generation comes of age (and she’ll see it, too, cause that woman has more pure evil behind that mask than all the Cheneys in all the intestinal crevices of Satan)

  58. 58
    Schlemizel says:

    @J.D. Rhoades:

    Yeah, I don’t see any wing of the goopers that would like the idea. Its bad for business, a huge burden on average people and death to those on fixed income. Without the social safety net of Europe it would be the final nail in the coffin.

  59. 59
    WereBear says:

    Hillary vs Huckabee.

    Man oh man, that would be some contest.

  60. 60
    feebog says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    I’m simply pointing out that although not insurmountable, it will be a stretch for Republicans to take six seats net. And if Nunn and Grimes come through with wins, then it is pretty much impossible. They would have to take SD, MT, LA, NC, WV, AR, AK, and another Dem seat not even in play at this point. Don’t see it happening if we win both GA and KY.

  61. 61
    Roger Moore says:

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    Their attention span is even shorter than that of my kittehs!

    Kittehs have a very impressive attention span when it comes to prey animals. The reason we think of them as having poor attention span is that if they are distracted, they have a poor memory of what it was they were doing before the distraction, but they have an amazing ability to remain focused on one thing when it’s something that really matters to them.

  62. 62
    KG says:

    @Schlemizel: I did some googling to figure out what his plan was in 2008 (because I didn’t remember specifics beyond “we pay too much”). He mostly pushed the flat tax, but he also supported the “Fair Tax” which is what the national sales tax/VAT plan was going by at the time. I vaguely recall Hewitt disagreeing with him because he opposed the national sales tax. But my guess is that if Huckabee wins the nomination, they’ll all fall in line… because that’s what they do.

  63. 63

    @Roger Moore: I agree. The great moth hunter, does not rest till he has killed and consumed his prey!

  64. 64
    KG says:

    @J.D. Rhoades: hell, Romney ran on a Social Security lock box in 2012… which, if I recall correctly, was Al Gore’s plan in 2000. But Al Gore was fat and invented the internet and global warming.

  65. 65
    Davis X. Machina says:

    @feebog: Georgia will not elect another Democratic senator in my lifetime. I’m 56.

  66. 66
    askew says:

    @geg6:

    Mitt Romney will be 69 in 2016. I can’t imagine a general election between 2 69 yr old candidates (Romney and Hillary). At least it would neutralize the problem Dems are going to have with running such an old candidate in Hillary. Man, that would be one charisma free general election. Neither one of them are top tier politicians. It would be one snoozer of an election.

  67. 67
    WaterGirl says:

    @askew: Agree. That would be a HUGE letdown for me after being so excited about Barack Obama. I really don’t want to go back to the lesser of two evils. I will never respect Hillary after her made-up tall tale about sniper file. Forgiving someone for making a mistake is one thing; we all make mistakes. But creating a complete fabrication of something that never happened? That speaks to character defect, not a mistake. I would vote for her, though, if she was in the general.

  68. 68
    Higgs Boson's Mate says:

    @KG:

    He mostly pushed the flat tax, but he also supported the “Fair Tax” which is what the national sales tax/VAT plan was going by at the time.

    Republicans will simply sell the VAT/national sales tax/whatever as “Doing away with income tax and the IRS.” Their base, at least, will go mad for it.

  69. 69
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    Georgia will not elect another Democratic senator in my lifetime. I’m 56.

    I’m looking 72 in the eye, and I still maintain that Michelle Nunn has the best chance of any Democrat in the state. By no means is it a given, and even if the polls showed her with a 20-point lead, my only reaction would be “Don’t get complacent.”

    Rather than just being discouraged (discouraging) and negative, all these months in advance, like you, I prefer to give time and energy and money to MN’s campaign as I am able. I hope to be celebrating in November; if that is not to be, at least I’ll know I did what I could instead of moping around and playing the “What’s the use?” game.

  70. 70
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Roger Moore:

    The reason we think of them as having poor attention span is that if they are distracted, they have a poor memory of what it was they were doing before the distraction, but they have an amazing ability to remain focused on one thing when it’s something that really matters to them.

    OMG! I iz a kitteh!!

  71. 71
    Big R says:

    @Davis X. Machina: That link boils down to “we know nothing that we couldn’t get from a coin flip.”

  72. 72
    WereBear says:

    @Roger Moore: if they are distracted, they have a poor memory of what it was they were doing before the distraction

    Exactly. Which is why trying to “scare” or punish them away from wrongdoing will always backfire, because they don’t remember what they were doing that got us so crazy… they are just freaking out because we’ve suddenly gone crazy.

  73. 73
    GregB says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    Amen, I remember talking with friends and family who were convinced a Black man couldn’t get elected in the U.S.

    The old order is collapsing.

  74. 74
    mainmata says:

    Those two polls are just awesome. Both women candidates are attractive (intellectually/personality; don’t know or care what they look like) and there has been a recent wave, mainly on the Dem side, of course, of recruiting and electing really good Senators and Representatives. This can only be a good thing. I would deeply like to see the end of the cynical Turtle’s career in a Kentucky that is gradually becoming more purple over time and GA may actually be up for grabs because of Nunn’s reputation but it is still solidly red.

  75. 75
    gf120581 says:

    I’m quite confident of the Dems mantaining Senate control. To win control, the GOP pretty much needs to run the table and not lose any of their own. That isn’t happening on either count. They’d need a wave like 2010 to do that and it isn’t happening. And who knows what races the Tea Party might fuck up this time?

  76. 76

    @Davis X. Machina: Do people here even know that Nunn has a primary opponent? Why are the jumping on her bandwagon so fast?

  77. 77
    tybee says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    i’ll vote for Nunn of the above.

    we’ll elect another D.

  78. 78
    catclub says:

    @WereBear: Both Arkansas based. Actually, I guess they are both New York based now. Maybe Arkansas rooted says it better.

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