Hangin’ tough

Predictions are hard, especially about the future, but I think this is right:

If Schelling is right, one might plausibly expect the next few days of negotiations to be shaped by two contradictory forces. On the one hand, House and Senate Democrats and the White House are likely to hang tough, because they anticipate that the House Republicans will have no choice but to fold. On the other hand, the House Republicans may have a strong incentive to double down, because they fear that if they concede this time around, their future leverage (including their leverage over the debt ceiling negotiations) will dwindle rapidly. This may give further reason to Republican moderates not to dissent from the party line (they may not like that line: but they do not want to damage their party’s negotiating strength).

The GOP may eventually fold on this, but I expect a double shot of Wolverines! over the next few days.

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48 replies
  1. 1
    Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader says:

    I think Republicans are waiting to see if South Carolina is going to attack Fort Sumter again. They’re getting close.

  2. 2
    PsiFighter37 says:

    Did anything come of that stupid compromise that Ron Kind was working on? Sounded like the ‘concession’ was just repealing the tax on medical devices.

    Funny how when ‘moderates’ (even those from our side) come up with a compromise, it invariably ends up adding more to the deficit and not doing anything to address the supposedly runaway debt.

  3. 3
    Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader says:

    I have a Republican buddy who voted for these Asshats that just shut down government and furloughed him from his lowly maintenance tech job at a local dam. I asked him why he kept voting for these people when they kick him every chance they get. He said he didn’t want to talk about politics but would rather just trust that God would deliver him through it.

    I told him voting for Republicans and trusting God seems like a recipe for disaster.

  4. 4
    aimai says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: Why doesn’t he try giving god a little hand up, once in a while, and use his own fucking head and vote democratic?

  5. 5
    The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik says:

    On the other hand, the House Republicans may have a strong incentive to double down, because they fear that if they concede this time around, their future leverage (including their leverage over the debt ceiling negotiations) will dwindle rapidly. This may give further reason to Republican moderates not to dissent from the party line (they may not like that line: but they do not want to damage their party’s negotiating strength).

    This is why the nitwits demanding that Dems “compromise” on at least piecemeal funding are jackasses. Give in and the GOP realizes they can do this shit whenever they want and face no consequence, like they do with so many goddamn things that the Media lets them get away with. They think this gives them the high ground because they stand ‘firm’ and get interference via their talking heads to poison the well.

  6. 6

    It’s a slow process, learning that Obama is not the empty chair Clint Eastwood yelled at.

  7. 7
    aimai says:

    Aside from that I think that party line unity is going to break down much faster than people think. When congresspeople start hearing from their own voters (or grasp finally that the polls reflect the viewpoint of their own voters) they are going to abandon the “party line” faster than a rabbit leaping away from a fox. They just are. Denny Hastert just showed them the way. You just turn and walk away as fast as you can. And you don’t look back.

    One by one they are going to phone up Boehner and demand he do something to get them out of this and when he has enough he is going to bring it to the floor at midnight and get a clean CR and just pretend he did everyone a big favor. And my guess is he is going to end up doing the same for the debt ceiling. Not because the lunatics are chastened (they won’t be) but because the rest of the house republicans simply can’t face the horror any longer.

  8. 8

    @The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik:
    Do any of these nitwits ever vote Democrat to begin with?

  9. 9
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @PsiFighter37:

    That’s because the debt and the deficit actually have no real importance in any of this. Right now this is about a bunch of spoiled rotten three year olds holding their breath until they turn blue.

    I’m willing to wait for them to turn black.

  10. 10
    Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader says:

    @aimai: When he was visiting some time back and mentioned he was worried about losing his job from the threat of a shutdown or sequestration (honestly, I can’t remember which Republican manufactured crisis it was), I said, “Dudebro, stopped voting for Republicans.” And he replied sorta stupidly, “You think that’s who is causing this? It seems like all of them.” Then he changed the subject.

  11. 11
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    We’re talking about a bunch of people who are the burger, fries, small coke, and toy prize short of a happy meal.

  12. 12
    Corner Stone says:

    The GOP may eventually fold on this, but I expect a double shot of Wolverines! over the next few days.

    I’d like to believe this. But what do Martin and the various voices in his head have to say about any possible developments?

  13. 13
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader:

    You’re not the fuckhead.

    Your friend is.

  14. 14
  15. 15
    Suffern ACE says:

    November 6. But maybe earlier. Some of these guys seem like the sort who’d choke on Halloween candy. Give them a bag, tell them it was meant for kids in head start programs.

  16. 16
    Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: I replied, “Fine, stop voting. You can make it better just by not making it worse.”

  17. 17
    Mike E says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: I’m doing phone calls to GOTV and a fellow worker said to me, “I can’t keep up with which party is doing what.”

    Really? So I said, “‘both sides’ is bogus, we know which party is doing ‘it’ to the country right now.”

  18. 18
    danielx says:

    If I were sitting today where you sit, Mr. Obama, almost at the confluence of the Anacostia River, the Washington Chanel, and the Potomac River, here’s what I’d do:

    I’d announce that, now that the government’s been closed for two days, I’m unwilling to sign anything but a clean bill to fund the government, except that now I also want the Rapeublicans to approve all of my judicial nominees who have been languishing in Congress lo these many years.

    I really like this woman’s ideas.

    It’s possible that somebody has been coaching B. Barry Bamz how to not negotiate with himself, since he doesn’t show any signs of folding as of yet. Here’s hoping he continues, since if he does do his impression of El Choke-o (again) he damn well will deserve to be impeached for all the excellent reasons he himself has cited.

  19. 19
    efgoldman says:

    @aimai:

    Not because the lunatics are chastened (they won’t be) but because the rest of the house republicans simply can’t face the horror any longer.

    I dunno’. This scenario kind of demands that the TeaHadis have some concept of reality. I don’t see it, I really don’t. I mean, they have a whole bunch of MDs who deny basic science, for FSM’s sake.
    There may be enough of the other folks for Orangeman and Nancy Smash to put together a majority, but there’s a big bunch of lemmings in suicide vests, too.

  20. 20
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @The Sailor:

    The man is the poster child for the National Morans League.

  21. 21
    Felonius Monk says:

    Boehner is going to suddenly suffer a nervous breakdown (probably alcohol induced) and in the ensuing confusion the clean CR will be brought to the floor on a discharge petition. Dems + some Repubs will then vote it into law. Boehner will make a full recovery a week or so later and life will go on. Boehner will bear no scars from the ordeal.

  22. 22
    Matt says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    If they hold their breath long enough, the whole *country* will turn Blue. ;)

  23. 23
    The Dangerman says:

    There’s a vodka named Wolverines?

  24. 24
    jeffreyw says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: And then God said “..but I sent you all those Democrats to vote for!”

  25. 25
    Davis X. Machina says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: Rest assured both sides will be doing it for approximately as long as the Republicans are the party of fiscal probity, or the Democrats are soft on defense.

    In other words, until the heat-death of the sun. Or at least till everyone who remembers Eisenhower is dead.

  26. 26
    mdblanche says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: The stupid vote, an important voting bloc for conservatives all over the world.

    @Davis X. Machina: “Or at least till everyone who remembers Eisenhower is dead.”

    So what you’re saying is that this chained CPI thing might have some advantages for Democrats after all?

  27. 27
    Felonius Monk says:

    @danielx: She refers to them as Rapeublicans — nice touch.

  28. 28
    Mike E says:

    @danielx: I’m ok with Putin getting credit for Syria. Knowing who the errand boy in this equation is: priceless.

  29. 29
    Davis X. Machina says:

    @mdblanche: Potentially. But only potentially.

    One of the problems with ‘demographic change dooms the GOP’ theories is they make new old people every day.

  30. 30
    fuckwit says:

    I keep posting this, I’m waiting for a FP’er to FP it, but it literally is everything you need to know about the CR, debt ceiling, Obamacare, Rethugs, negotiation, Obama, and why he’s done what he’s done for the last 5 years, and why he’s doing what he’s doing now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC8C_JH2eQc

  31. 31
    Emma says:

    @danielx: You know, that last paragraph? Shove it. President Obama is probably the most successful liberal president you’re ever likely to encounter and you still show him the same respect Republicans do.

  32. 32
    👾 Martin says:

    @danielx: I disagree with that tactic. This is a stopgap spending measure. The only thing the Dems should add to their demands is a clean debt 12 month debt limit raise. And only because we’re two weeks out from that limit, and nothing of substance can be resolve between now and then, so get that now.

    Adding the nominees to the full budget negotiation – by all means. But not here.

  33. 33
    LAC says:

    @danielx: gosh, what useful assholes we have on the left. Bravely marinating in their sweatpants and doing their snide “I hope Barry-O doesn’t fold, cave or whatever it is that I wouldn’t do if anyone would put me within two feet of decision making”. The president is doing his job keeping his foot on the republican necks while ignoring the far left. Who need to deliver votes at the congressional election if their sideline snideness is to be taken seriously. Then this bullshit would not be an issue.

  34. 34
    catclub says:

    @danielx: Hey! I posted that 8 hours ago. Nobody seemed to notice.

    I think he should throw in demanding the Equal Rights Amendment.

    Maybe repeal of Taft-Hartley.

  35. 35
    catclub says:

    @👾 Martin: The GOP says he is not negotiating with them. THIS would be negotiations that end with a clean CR. As long as the GOP is demanding things put those out there to provide balance.

  36. 36
    Gex says:

    @Mike E: I’d be tempted to ask them how they dare vote after admitting they are too dim to follow what’s happening. If they can’t follow who’s doing what, how do they make a decision at the ballot box?

  37. 37
    Bob's Had Enough says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    One of the problems with ‘demographic change dooms the GOP’ theories is they make new old people every day.

    Yeah, but they’re making them out of newer model stock.

  38. 38
    MattR says:

    @catclub: The problem is that it costs the president the high ground that he currently holds. We may finally be getting to the point where it is sinking in that this is not a “both sides do it” situation and there is one side acting completely irrationally. It seems like the worst thing Obama can do is kill that momentum by doing something that allows the media to semi-accurately argue that both sides are making unreasonable demands.

  39. 39
    👾 Martin says:

    @MattR:

    It seems like the worst thing Obama can do is kill that momentum by doing something that allows the media to semi-accurately argue that both sides are making unreasonable demands.

    There’s almost no way the media can spin a clean debt limit as an unreasonable demand. As we get closer to the debt limit, that becomes the larger problem, not the shutdown. There will be a day when our attention switches and that’s when Obama can change his message.

  40. 40
    fuckwit says:

    @MattR: What in the hell is unreasonable about expecting the Congress to do it’s damn job, to respect the lawmaking process, and to obey the laws that are already passed and which they do not have the votes to repeal?

    This isn’t hard, and it’s very obvious who is being reasonable and responsible, and who is not.

    You can not give in to blackmail. You do it once, and they won’t stop. You cannot allow a minority faction of one party in one house in one branch of government to hold the whole nation, and indeed the whole world economy, hostage. Obama said exactly that and really no more needs to be said than that. The answer is no.

  41. 41
    AxelFoley says:

    @danielx:

    Really, you dumb fuck? Really?

  42. 42
    MattR says:

    @fuckwit: I am referring back to the linked article from a comment above that suggested that Obama add demands to the clean CR. Such as, we want a clean CR plus up and down votes on all judicial nominees. I think the point of that article was that this tactic is the only way for a clean CR to be a compromise that Republicans will accept. My argument was that I completely agree with your statement that “This isn’t hard, and it’s very obvious who is being reasonable and responsible, and who is not.” and I think that adding demands obsures this reality (which is something the public is just starting to grasp)

  43. 43
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader:

    he replied sorta stupidly, “You think that’s who is causing this? It seems like all of them.”

    “They all suck” and “throw them all out” is the dumb person’s attempt at political sophistication. It is also very much an American thing, thanks to the whole separation of powers bullshit.

  44. 44
    virginia says:

    @MattR: This. Keep it simple, effective, and clean. This is a pocket of infection that needs to be cleaned out, triage style. Pour that bottle of whiskey right into the nice, clean wound. I for one am glad that Obama keeps his smart aleck ways well under wraps. He made good use of it in Rockville today when talking to the cameras and the construction crew. Just right–and he was clearly and beautifully PISSED.

  45. 45
    Emerald says:

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    “They all suck” and “throw them all out” is the dumb person’s attempt at political sophistication.

    It’s the Republican’s major tactic. They’ve been doing it since Reagan. Make government look bad and everybody in government looks bad, especially the party that wants government. Ergo, we elect more Republicans.

    Simple, really, and highly effective.

  46. 46
    Davis X. Machina says:

    @Emerald: The fellow may just as well have picked it up from Jon Stewart, or Bill Maher

  47. 47
  48. 48
    tybee says:

    @fuckwit:

    i saw that on a thread a few days ago. i especially like the “…and then i crush them.” and his laugh.

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