The new thing all the cool kids are saying is that a shutdown next week will decrease the likelihood of a default later in October. I agree with this part of the reasoning:
If a shutdown is avoided, it is likely to be because congressional Republicans have opted to wait and push for policy concessions on the debt limit instead.
But if there is a shutdown and consequences are minimal for Republican Congressman, why not go the fully monty and force a default? I agree that a shutdown further tarnishes the Republican party’s image among voters, but if you’re an individual Republican Congressman, why should you care? In the short term, you’ll probably get more “give ’em hell” supportive calls from constituents than complaints, given the way your district has been gerrymandered. Even in the long term (at least until 2022), you’re much more likely to lose a primary by helping to avert a shutdown than you are to lose a general election by causing one.
It’s worth noting that Ted Cruz is now the top choice of prospective Republican primary voters.
The media will blame both sides no matter what happens, and if you see yourself as on a kamikaze mission to take down Obama, then a shutdown makes sense as a part of this mission.
A default is different, there will be real blowback if one happens (though maybe not enough to make much difference to the careers of individual Republican Congressmen), but I don’t see how the experience of a shutdown would convince Republican Congressmen of this.
There is no accountability of any kind in Washington anymore. There is no controlling legal authority, and everything is permitted. The Republicans could easily go Leopold and Loeb on us with the debt ceiling, though in the end I don’t think they’ll quite have the guts to do it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
IANAL, but I don’t understand how the debt limit, a completely made up piece of cosmetic legislation, trumps the Constitution.
celticdragonchick
I can’t see why they wouldn’t go ahead and push the button. Last time, some of the clowns were suggesting that that defaulting would allow them to go ahead and press for an impeachment of teh Kenyan Usurper since he “allowed” the full faith and credit of the country to be questioned.
While they are at it, they might as well attach a demand that Joe Biden resign, Ted Cruz be named VP and put up for confirmation and then Obama can deport himself to Kenya…
PsiFighter37
If we default, this whole “Life Beyond the Thunderdome” shit is going to get a lot realer.
The fact that there are some assholes from the middle of nowhere who want to dip their toe in the water / feel just the tip of a default are morons. You want decline and fall? Wait until the Chinese unload the crap out of Treasuries and the euro (or the yen) becomes the reserve currency of choice.
These fuckers are playing with fire. The ‘markets’ are too stupid to know that the invisible hand has a non-zero probability of fisting them real hard, but things are going to get real in 2 weeks’ time. Last time these shitheads pulled this stunt in 2011, I sold everything in my portfolio because I didn’t want to get rocked (it was a bad move in hindsight, but you can’t tell with these crazy fuckers in the House) if a default did happen. I honestly think there is a much greater probability of it happening this time around.
WereBear
What, collapse of the global monetary system won’t affect money in Arkansas?
Baud
Republicanism depends on real people tuning out the noise and on money from Wall Street and big business. A long shutdown and default would threaten both.
celticdragonchick
@PsiFighter37:
This.
We simply Do. Not. Know. how bad things can get if T-Bills collapse. I don’t think any real modeling has been attempted, since there is nothing that can really serve as a precedent for massive, deliberate sabotage on a global scale.
Runs on banks? Stoppage of grocery and gas delivery? National guard on the streets here? Riots in China?
Who knows?
The Ancient Randonneur
Hhhhmmm … so the House tea party zealots see themselves as Nietzschean supermen, in a manner of speaking? You might be on to something.
Joey Maloney
In the end I’m afraid they won’t quite have the brains to avoid it.
celticdragonchick
@Joey Maloney:
Never underestimate the power of malignant incompetence.
raven
chicken little motherfuckers
Ted & Hellen
This post, as do most of Doug J’s rambling hipster rantings, completely avoids the responsibility of the Democratic Party in allowing this state of affairs to develop and continue to exist.
The reason the Right Wing psychos and the MSM get away with the game they play is because almost no one is pushing back from the Democratic side, least of all our milquetoast President and Speaker.
Jesus, what noodle spine dip shits.
PsiFighter37
OT: in news that is not news if the media bothered to think once in a while, Hispanics don’t like the GOP. And not surprisingly, they are not going to vote for Republicans because of ‘family values’ or any of that bullshit (and one of the surprises is that a majority support gay marriage).
JPL
Representative Tom Graves of GA has experience with loan defaults. It was the banks fault for lending him and his crony 2 million dollars. The bank should have known he was a poor risk. Since nothing happened to him, he figures why not let the country default.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: There is some discussion on whether or not the War Bond Act of 1917 trumps the 14th amendment. From my limited knowledge, I don’t understand that view point.
They can impeach Obama if he does evoke the 14th amendment and they can impeach him if he doesn’t.
Emerald
Thank you failed media.
Walter Cronkite would be on this every night and he’d tell it straight.
schrodinger's cat
You know in finance, in the theory of efficient markets, the rate of Treasury bills called, the risk free rate, based on the assumption that the Treasury is never going to default. The teabaggers in Congress are certainly calling that assumption into question. Default could very well end the primacy of the dollar as the global de facto currency and that means we will all be in a world of pain.
Frankensteinbeck
There are some twists here. One, the Teatards in congress don’t care. They don’t care what happens to the economy, they don’t care what rich sponsors think, they don’t care if they get reelected, they don’t care. No one has any leverage on them. They are true believers in the Church Of Punish The Uppity Negro. Two, they don’t have to vote for anything. It doesn’t take many ‘not completely batshit insane’ Republican House members for Nancy to pass a bill. She can certainly scrape them up. What it takes is Boehner to bring it to the floor. Who has leverage over him, and how much?
Cassidy
Well, guess it’s time to go buy a rifle.
MattF
No one knows what’s going to happen. There’s a Paulite goldbug in my office who was going around making predictions about what was going to happen in the 2008 financial crisis. And, surprise, everything he said was wrong. And, surprise, the couple of wingers in my office were just as annoyed with him as I was.
I would not be surprised to see Obama pull a last-minute maneuver of some sort to prevent default. And then dare the wingers to sue him. But, remember– no one knows.
cckids
@Joey Maloney:
This. Jesus, listen to some of them talk about it, you can tell they have no concept of what the results would be. Some of them truly don’t know the difference between the deficit & the national debt.
PsiFighter37
@celticdragonchick: I think it’s hard to game out what the exact ramifications are, simply because it’s been such a theoretical concept. The only real analog that would be reasonable to use is what happened in Europe – people discovered that the common currency was not treated equally across country borders – a euro in Greece was worth shit, and a euro in Cyprus was worth so little they put capital controls on the goddamn country. How’s that for free flow of funds?
Honestly, though, the long-term impact is that we become the Thunderdome. What do Mom and Pop have their funds invested in? Stocks, which will take it on the chin the fiercest. So you sell your stocks – what do you do? Hard to buy Treasuries if you don’t know you’re going to get your money back. Hide it under your mattress? Enjoy doing that while the rest of the world is selling dollars, causing it to depreciate. Buy gold? Real assets? If they’re denominated in dollars, that’s pointless because people won’t think the dollar is worth what it was. Everyone in the U.S. is trapped.
WereBear
In a recent speech President Obama said he won’t let them go to default.
I don’t know what he has in mind, but always before he has had a plan; he does not make empty promises. In fact, he is very careful how he speaks in such situations, when he does not know how it is going to go.
I do have confidence in this President; I may not have agreed with all the things he does, but I do agree with his approach to problems.
raven
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long stem rose
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that you love me baby
Everybody knows that you really do
Everybody knows that you’ve been faithful
Ah give or take a night or two
Everybody knows you’ve been discreet
But there were so many people you just had to meet
Without your clothes
And everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows
And everybody knows that it’s now or never
Everybody knows that it’s me or you
And everybody knows that you live forever
Ah when you’ve done a line or two
Everybody knows the deal is rotten
Old Black Joe’s still pickin’ cotton
For your ribbons and bows
And everybody knows
And everybody knows that the Plague is coming
Everybody knows that it’s moving fast
Everybody knows that the naked man and woman
Are just a shining artifact of the past
Everybody knows the scene is dead
But there’s gonna be a meter on your bed
That will disclose
What everybody knows
And everybody knows that you’re in trouble
Everybody knows what you’ve been through
From the bloody cross on top of Calvary
To the beach of Malibu
Everybody knows it’s coming apart
Take one last look at this Sacred Heart
Before it blows
And everybody knows
Everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows
Oh everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows
Goblue72
@Cassidy: and aim it at the closest right-winger?
PsiFighter37
If you know people who want things simple, then this is the best way to put it: defaulting on the debt ceiling is like flying into a black hole…you’re not sure what’s on the other side.
But do you really want to find out?
becca
Is this a coup? Are the Kochs and their lesser gods going for broke?
MomSense
If this whole thing does crash and burn in default, I say we all meet up in Cambridge and have some Oakeshott in the Widener Library for succor.
Tripod
@Frankensteinbeck:
Jim Beam, Jack Daniels, et al.
Too much to function as an effective Speaker.
schrodinger's cat
@PsiFighter37: It doesn’t matter what’s on the other side, the gravitational pull of the black hole will kill you first.
WereBear
Looks that way, doesn’t it?
What amazes me is how few “rich people” don’t seem to understand economics. I never took a single class in it, only read a few books, but I seem to know far more about what default will do than the whole of the Republican party.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Frankensteinbeck: Boehner is a small town Rotarian with dreams of being a Speaker with a place in the history books. That may yet happen, but not in the way he once dreamed. If anyone can get past the strange combination of ego and cowardice that is causing him to cling to his title (I don’t buy the recent “Boehner is actually a genius!” theory, I think he’s weak and confused like an animal with one leg in a trap), I suppose he could bite the bullet and resign by making a deal with Pelosi. I think that’s a good possibility if not a probability. Hell, Buffett and Bloomberg could set him up as head of the John Boehner Institute for Small Business with the change in their couch cushions. He might not become historic, but for the next five ten years David Gregory will talk about how he saved the country by doing the right thing.
Cassidy
@Goblue72: Nah. PACE= Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency. It’s always good planning to have a contingency plan.
MattF
@PsiFighter37: The recent kerfuffle over black hole physics:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/13/science/space/a-black-hole-mystery-wrapped-in-a-firewall-paradox.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
only shows (IMO) that making predictions about unobservable phenomena is a risky business.
schrodinger's cat
Doom and gloom thread needs some cheering up. Here are literary Caturday Kittehs to bring a smile back to your face.
burnspbesq
Your repeated references to gerrymandering suggest that you believe that there is no chance of flipping the House in 2014. I don’t believe that. Or, rather, I refuse to believe that, because that sort of negativity invities people to sit out 2014, and thereby waste our best chance to actually get something out of Obama’s second term.
Punchy
Isnt this Law of the Commons or some such term? Whats good for each Congressman is poison for the GOP at large?
? Martin
This is the problem. There’s only 2 1/2 weeks between the shutdown and the debt limit. I’m not sure that’s enough time for the nation to turn against the GOP, and even if it was, I’m not convinced the GOP would even hear it. They haven’t heard any of the support for gun control or opposition to their other ideas. The only thing they care about is the 27%, because that’s who carries them through their next primary.
And Obama has no choice but stand his ground here. He can’t compromise – doing so would effectively end our democracy. The GOP would move to constant hostage-taking mode just as they moved to constant filibuster mode. He’ll need to evoke the 14th amendment.
Elizabelle
@schrodinger’s cat:
Thank you again for telling me about Adblock. Using it happily on Balloon Juice; disabling it on the NYTimes and some other sites that have classier ads.
No Newsmax headlines either! A two-fer.
schrodinger's cat
@WereBear: Many of the uber rich got that way by the lottery of their birth, so they didn’t need to know no econ.
becca
Godwin’s Law is dead, too, btw.
schrodinger's cat
@burnspbesq: I agree with you, we can flip the House in 2014 and this constant doom and gloom is counterproductive.
@Elizabelle: You are most welcome!
Doug Milhous J
@burnspbesq:
Meh, no one on this blog is sitting anything out. I go door-to-door for House Democrats every two years and I talk about it here and encourage others to do the same.
Lying to people about the chances of flipping the House isn’t the right way to motivate.
? Martin
@burnspbesq: I think the Dems can retake the House. Gerrymandering is a problem, but it’s not impossible to overcome.
Elizabelle
Last night, DanielX (?) linked to this clever New Yorker essay by Democratic Congressman Steve Israel.
Parody Letter. On GOP grasp on finance, big and small.
Dear American Express, I have reached my personal debt ceiling
Redshift
I agree with DougJ. Ezra Klein seems to think that if the teabaggers are allowed to shut down the government, they’ll have “had their tantrum” and the debt ceiling disaster won’t happen. I just can’t see any reason to believe that would be true; the idea seems to be that it would be like Ted Cruz’ performance-art non-filibuster; it would be enough to put on a good show for the rubes. But it seems to me it would go one of two ways:
1. They get nothing significant by shutting down the government, in which case they’ll decide they need the debt ceiling for real leverage, or,
2. They get some concessions, in which case they say “Woo-hoo, that worked great! Imagine what we can get for the big enchilada!”
Can anyone imagine a third scenario where these extortionists say “okay, we’re not going to get any more than we’ve got”?
burnspbesq
@Ted & Hellen:
What sort of “pushback” would you like? Do you have an actual idea that might be useful in this situation?
Naah, didn’t think so.
celticdragonchick
Asshole comments from NYMag regarding the debt ceiling and why they think we should default…
These idiots are the ones calling Ted Cruz’s office and telling him to ‘stick to Odumbo’.
I think we are screwed this time…and it will take 20 years at least to undo the damage.
Elizabelle
@? Martin:
I think Democrats have a good chance of picking up seats in the House in 2014.
Republicans are pursuing policies that are bad for women and families, and women — and people who respect women — have noticed.
Plus, Obamacare’s rollout may be a factor in 2014. Cruz and his GOP buddies gave ad makers a lot to work with with their Cruzathon.
I am tired of hearing that we cannot do anything about the House.
You never hear the GOP telling us they can’t do anything about the Senate. Never.
Redshift
@Punchy: Tragedy of the Commons.
cmorenc
@PsiFighter37:
But this fact has significantly less impact than it otherwise should, unless Hispanics can be nudged to actually turn out and vote in proportionate numbers. Their failure to do so in Texas is precisely why that state isn’t already purple rather than merely trending toward purple in two to four more election cycles.
PsiFighter37
@Redshift: No, because they won’t be happy until there’s nothing left but a pile of charred ashes.
It astounds me that people who actively run on the premise of government not functioning get elected to said government. Why the hell would people bother to vote for people who clearly state they’re not going to do their fucking jobs? If I went to work with the stated purpose of fucking everything up, Xeroxing pictures of my ass, and taking a dump in the middle of the meeting room, I’d be fired in less than a heartbeat.
celticdragonchick
@PsiFighter37:
I have been reading a lot of stuff about banks freezing up…no money in the ATM and all of a sudden…no food at the store.
In 2008, there were businesses that could not make payroll and could not order new inventory…and this would be several orders of magnitude larger then that.
Shit could get real fucking ugly real fast.
MomSense
@WereBear:
I think they are in denial. I keep hearing from Republicans that this is just political theater and they would never actually risk default.
PsiFighter37
@cmorenc: That’s the problem with our current coalition – it’s built on folks who have been conditioned to vote during presidential years, but basically not at any other time. Big problem.
dmsilev
@WereBear:
I’m pretty sure this is the case. I doubt it’s the much ballyhooed ‘platinum coin’ option (I think the Fed has already said that it wouldn’t accept a ‘deposit’ of that sort), but there’s a contingency plan of some sort in place. Given how much warning and lead time we’ve had, it’s inevitable.
John O
@Redshift:
No.
I think it is prudent to prepare for things to burn down, and agree with DougJ’s analysis very much, until he gets to they won’t have the guts to do it part. They. Don’t. Care.
The only wild card I can think of is the Wall St. boys threatening to shut down the money spigot for GOP candidates if things get close. But what is the House’s reelection rate? 95%? Something on that order.
Joey Maloney
@? Martin:
That’s what Rep. Steve Israel was saying earlier on Up; but of course it’s his job to say so.
I wish we still had Big Gay Nate to crunch the numbers on questions like that.
dmsilev
@burnspbesq: T&H also seems to think that the Democrats have a Speaker right now.
RSA
@WereBear:
From what I’ve read, the average conservative doesn’t grasp the concept of marginal tax rates and thinks that the world’s largest economy can be understood in terms of working out a family budget at the kitchen table or splitting a bar tab. It’s pretty hopeless, in other words.
Trakker
The Republicans are already taking big hits from the pundits for even going this far towards shutting the government and defaulting – what more do they have to lose by actually doing it? After all, their main goal is to destroy the government as we know it. Destroying our economy so we can start all over with the plutocrats firmly in charge appears to be exactly what they been working toward. Shock Doctrine – they will use the crisis to take over and destroy democracy until they can “Fix” everything that they claim is broken.
MomSense
@dmsilev:
Well if T&H thinks Boehner is a Democrat, I can understand why he thinks so poorly of them.
celticdragonchick
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
And that is the one thing I can reasonably see where we get out of this.
Boehner falls on his sword and violates the Hastert rule.
Is he man enough to do it…and who the fuck will do it when we go through this again in about 11 months or so? Can we really keep dodging this bullet with a significant number of congresscritters who are objectively deranged?
PsiFighter37
@RSA: At least from having to watch those mindless fuckwads on CNBC all day, it’s more that because Republicans want lower taxes and less regulation, that makes everything else okay. None of those turds want to say a bad thing about the GOP, even as they’ve become increasingly crazy on just.about.everything.
Chris
@WereBear:
How many of “the rich” got to where they are with anything that required understanding anything about economics – as opposed to just inheriting the parents’ fortune and letting their underlings handle the day-to-day stuff?
And if you have connections, why would you need to understand economics – no matter how badly you fuck up, the government will be there to put you back on your feet with a bailout and a pat on the back.
On top of that, society provides you with so many scapegoats that you’re really not all that inclined to question your actions. Every time a business goes belly-up, the media, the Chamber of Commerce and most of the politicians in sight are falling all over themselves to say it’s the government’s fault, the unions’ fault, the employees’ fault. If no one else wants to blame you, why should you?
… and of course, for the smarter ones, it’s not that they don’t understand economics. It’s that they’ve figured out that it’s perfectly possible for them to thrive off of economic failure, Bain Capital style. Take over a company, suck it dry, and when it fails, jump ship with a golden parachute and move on to the next one.
Redshift
@Doug Milhous J:
You have very curious ideas about what motivates people. And about certainty of political outcomes. Now I want to see a DougJ-inspired sports movie with the coach giving his pre-game speech, “we have absolutely no chance of winning, but I know you’ll all go out there and do your best because it will make no difference at all!”
Linnaeus
The Republican Party is the Keyser Söze of American politics.
celticdragonchick
@dmsilev:
Even that will still have serious consequences. It will demonstrate conclusively that our political system is so broken that drastic, constitutional crisis level steps have to be taken in order to pay our bills, and foreign investors will demand better interest rate or some other concession.
That means our interest rates go up on loans, and maybe a lot.
It would still be a damned sight better than default, but we would still suffer consequences.
BruceJ
@WereBear: Nope because the dumb fuckers who keep voting them into office will just keep voting them into office, as they’re assured by Rush, Fox and their CongressCritter that it’s all the fault of that dusky usurper in the White House.
Because they’re the common clay of the New West.
JPL
@RSA: All the President has to do is decide who to pay first. See it’s up to him. That is the kinda logic we are up against.
Redshift
@celticdragonchick: I’m not convinced Boehner would even end up losing his job. I firmly believe the reason he’s remained Speaker for this long is that any rivals can see what a miserable job it is driving this clown car, and none of them actually want it right now. He has a title, effectively no power to influence anything unless he discards the Hastert Rule, and he’s a constant punching bag both from the Democrats and from his own caucus.
Who among them would be able to do any better?
BBA
My assumption is that Obama would unilaterally make budget cuts to force the budget into day-to-day balance, in an exercise of the historical presidential power of impoundment. This was banned by statute in 1974, but since default and borrowing above the limit are both banned by the Constitution, applying the statute in this case would be unconstitutional. (DISCLAIMER: I am a lawyer, but I am not Anthony Kennedy and thus my views of Constitutional law are not binding on anyone.)
So the budget would be balanced, but the unplanned, chaotic manner of it wouldn’t impress the deficit hawks and Broderites. We’d get an unsuccessful impeachment (because that would happen in any scenario), eventually Congress would raise the debt ceiling to meet the unbalanced budget and we’d go back to sanctimonious hand-wringing about the deficit until the next fiscal year rolls around and the crisis starts anew.
But this won’t precipitate the global economic collapse. That’s going to be on President Cruz.
Redshift
@PsiFighter37:
I agree other than about being conditioned. Conditioned by who or what?
Joey Maloney
@John O:
Does that even matter any more? Every inbred hereditary billionaire has several pet Congressmen, plus the Teatard grift machine. All that and gerrymandering, how many of the blow-it-all-up caucus actually depend on white-shoe New York money?
Jeremy
I agree that the president has a back up plan. Unlike last time the White house hasn’t ruled out using the 14 th amendment as a last resort. I don’t see the pro corporate conservative judges on the supreme court challenging the president using executive power in this instance since a default would ruin the U.S economy and hurt the world economy.
bemused
@celticdragonchick:
Hmm. I don’t suppose the commenter is including corps, rich farmers and other assorted fat cats as those who rely on government assistance to sustain their lives.
It’s bizarre how the 1% just gets a free pass from these idiots.
PsiFighter37
@Redshift: Maybe not the best word, but the gist is that Democrats don’t do GOTV in non-presidential years at the same level.
JPL
Cruz wears his whacko bird title proudly. He thinks it’s a compliment. Peak wingnut was a myth.
BBA
Or perhaps the Hastert Rule will spawn the Boehner Corollary: no legislation passes without a discharge petition.
Hungry Joe
Obama can’t concede anything. He can’t take their phone calls. He can’t even nod to them when he passes them on the street. Were he to do so the Executive branch of government would in effect cede all its power to the Legislature. It’s as simple as that.
Well, okay, it’s a lot more complex than that. But that’s by far the single most important point.
dmsilev
@celticdragonchick: Agreed, though I think (hope, really) that the side-effects would be short lived and that things would settle down eventually.
Actual default would be a hell of a lot worse.
Violet
A family member just told me about this exchange at the place of work. Background: several people in the office suddenly need visas to go to a country that is known for being difficult about handing out visas.
Administrative person: “I’m not sure we’ll be able to get the visas because of Obamacare.”
Family member: “You mean because the government might shut down?”
Administrative person: “Yes. Because Obamacare will shut down the passport office.”
The story was relayed to me with absolute disbelief. How the hell do you even deal with that kind of thing?
dmsilev
So supposedly the GOP Howler Monkey Caucus was having a meeting starting at noon Eastern. Has anything leaked out yet about what cartoon-villain plan they’re going to opt for next? I’m not sure we’re all that far away from them literally strapping people to railroad tracks and twirling their mustaches as the train approaches.
azlib
@schrodinger’s cat:
Could be really bad, but Krugman had a recent post on this front (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/25/default-notes/?_r=0). One of his points is if the Federal Reserve stepped in and was a buyer of last resort for T-Bills it could keep rates from spiking. Remember the Fed can buy anything, since it can print money at will. The other problem is the reduction in Federal spending which would likely push us back into recession which would move the Feds short term rate rise out into the future further which in turn reduces long term rate expectations. So long term T-Bill rates might not rise very much with a default, but a default would likely put us back into a recession.
Of course it is ridiculous we are all even having to speculate about this scenario. A rational government should never get itself into this kind of mess.
Amir Khalid
@dmsilev:
Why must you insult howler monkeys?
JPL
@Jeremy: During the Syrian crisis, I couldn’t figure out what the President’s plan was. The MSM was calling him weak and letting the Republicans run roughshod all over him. Well maybe Green Eggs and Ham was an appropriate book because it does appear that I was wrong.
Pogonip
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: well, as I understand it, the teabaggers are not questioning the debt. They’re just refusing to pay it.
MomSense
@Violet:
Wow, just wow. Obamacare will shut down the passport office???
Davis X. Machina
@JPL:
You don’t read this blog much: War. Endless war. For oil. And dick-swinging.
celticdragonchick
@Violet:
Wow.
The only thing I can think of in a similar vein happened to my parents while they were in Zimbabwe back in 1989.
Nobody in Harare would look at a document they needed to be processed “unless it has a stamp on it!”
None of the various government types knew what stamp needed to be on it. They had just been conditioned that they, collectively, could and would not approve a document unless somebody else had already reviewed it and put a stamp on the document. It didn’t matter who…there just had be some sort of stamp.
My folks found a coke bottle, made an improvised ink pad and then used the bottom of the bottle as a “stamp”.
Problem solved.
Cassidy
@Davis X. Machina: …and worse than Bush plus Iraq times eleventy billion. That was just Cole! With mix and AL and most of the commenters I was waiting for Mad Max to show up on my doorstep.
WereBear
The way I see it, some kind of massive confrontation/upheaval is inevitable. When we see something inevitable approaching, we should take steps to protect ourselves.
We must shape the path the force will take.
The Republicans are determined to create chaos they think they can ride to their goals. Sure, first term President Obama continued to work with them. But second term President Obama is talking a lot tougher.
I expect his actions to follow.
WereBear
WordPress doubled my post, so I will add:
If I were President, I would consider it a top priority to achieve some kind of lasting solution to The Republican Problem. At this point, they are like a chronic disease that slowly erodes the patient’s (our country) vital systems.
Like it or not, we are in a Constitutional Crisis!
Cassidy
@Davis X. Machina: You forgot worse than Bush and worse than Iraq times eleventy billion.
MattF
@Amir Khalid: After all, it says right here that feces-throwing is a sign of intelligence:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2068645/Monkeys-throwing-poo-Its-actually-sign-INTELLIGENCE.html
raven
@Davis X. Machina: and a nobel
raven
@Davis X. Machina: and a nobel
John O
@Joey Maloney:
You’re probably right. Which is why I see little chance of good outcomes here.
There IS a part of me that thinks people sometimes need to be force-fed the consequences of their votes from time to time…this may just be the time. (I’m referring to the default, not the shutdown.)
Ted & Hellen
Oops, Majority Leader, not Speaker. My bad.
Either way, he sucks.
Also too, Burnsie, for the 500th time: I’m not the President. I’m not the Majority Leader. When they start doing my job, I’ll start doing theirs.
dmsilev
@Violet: And Obamacare is to blame for the weather. And the poor performance of your local sports team.
raven
@Davis X. Machina: and a nobel
Violet
@MomSense: Yep. My family member just kind of stood there slack-jawed. I mean, what can you say?
celticdragonchick
@dmsilev:
They are supposedly (per Politico) attaching a one year delay of Obamacare onto the CR as well as a repeal of the medical devices tax.
Obviously, this will get nowhere in the Senate and there will not be enough time to go back to the house and start over before Monday night, as far as I can see.
Redshift
@PsiFighter37: I wasn’t disagreeing, I was just hoping you had some insight I hadn’t thought of. :-)
I don’t think it’s just GOTV, though; neither party has the same budget for GOTV in non-presidential years as in presidential years. The problem is that we have an electorate that requires more GOTV and more publicity about the election to get out to vote, so they vote in presidential elections that are on TV every night, but need to be pushed to vote in off years. The GOP doesn’t do better GOTV, but they have:
– a base of older white people, who vote more consistently, and,
– constant appeals to fear and bigotry, which we can’t really use in a symmetric fashion, because appeals to fear tend to make people more conservative
(Or maybe are just more effective with conservatives; can’t remember if it’s correlation or causation.)
But we do need to condition our voters. I think all of our presidents and presidential candidates should devote part of their political speeches to impressing on people the importance of voting in every election, not just theirs. We should have a checkbox on all those forms and web forms that people get when they’re enthusiastic that says “I will vote in every election for president, congress, governor, state legislature, and city or county government!” just to fix the commitment in their minds.
GOTV is important, but it clearly hasn’t been enough. We need to think about how to change the mindset.
Chris
@MomSense:
The dude in the seat next to me in the Greyhound last month told me the same thing, only in his case Obamacare was to blame for making Greyhound trips less frequent rather than shutting down the passport office. It really has become the catch-all Cause Of All Economic Troubles Anywhere Forever. Used to be unions, the IRS, affirmative action, Obamacare’s the latest in line.
raven
@Davis X. Machina: and a nobel
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@WereBear: I’m not predicting impeachment, at the very least drafting of articles, but it wouldn’t surprise me either, especially if the Boner is forced out. I could see Cantor being a weaker version of Tom Delay and losing even more control of the loonies.
Chris
@MomSense:
The dude in the seat next to me in the Greyhound last month told me the same thing, only in his case Obamacare was to blame for making Greyhound trips less frequent rather than shutting down the passport office. It really has become the catch-all Cause Of All Economic Troubles Anywhere Forever. Used to be unions, the IRS, affirmative action, Obamacare’s the latest in line.
raven
@dmsilev: Go Dawgs!
Gene108
Obama voted against raising the debt limit in 2005 or so. Therefore libtards* are hypocrites for defending Dear Leader Obama’s vote and comments about the debt being too damn high (when it was much lower under GWB than it is now), but libtards are now picking on Republicans for trying to get Obama’s out of control spending under control.
(A) This is a common argument on the Right and good enough that the MSM has their “both sides do it” case study, and (B) for those of you thinking youngins will vote Democrat because of GOP overreach need to realize that (I) this is their base line for normal politics and (II) whatever drove the the Great Depression generation and some Baby Boomers to believe that government can be a collective force to improve people’s lives is dead.
Watergate/Vietnam and then Reagan started killing the belief in government off, the Clinton era scandals and/or failure to get meaningful liberal legislation passed put it in life support and the lies of Bush & Co. to get us into Iraq put it on the grave.
I believe, on my anecdotal experience, the youngins will be more apoltical than previous generations. Getting them to buy into an agenda of government is not the problem, but the solution is going against three generations of programming.
The people who vote, ie are not put off by modern Republicans are already jaded enough to accept this mess as normal and the generational wave we hope will save this country will not be as strong as some think to shift the balance of power.
*my iPhone auto corrects to libtards not sure why it thinks that is a proper word
Alex S.
So I just found out that only a third of US national debt is held by foreign countries. The rest belongs to the Federal Reserve, state and local governments or government programs, and about 40% is being held by private consumers and investors. So about $7 trillion of private wealth would be evaporated in the case of a default.
Huggy Bear
@Violet: Second Hand News Correspondent Anthony Crispino — it’s not a comedy sketch, but a mini-documentary. So sad.
dmsilev
@celticdragonchick: I even wonder whether that would pass the House. I mean, a ‘one year delay in Obamacare’ implies that Obamacare will turn on next year, so you’re asking the crazies to vote for something which presumes the existence of Obamacare. I mean, we all know that if this went through next year they’d be calling for another one year delay, but I’m not sure the crazies will see it that way.
It’s of course dead in the Senate, which means pretty much a shutdown is inevitable come Tuesday morning.
Villago Delenda Est
The problem with any of Obama’s successes is that it opens up the door to actual judging of people on the content of character rather than the color of their skin.
This terrifies the white supremacist crowd.
Gene108
Obama voted against raising the debt limit in 2005 or so. Therefore libtards* are hypocrites for defending Dear Leader Obama’s vote and comments about the debt being too damn high (when it was much lower under GWB than it is now), but libtards are now picking on Republicans for trying to get Obama’s out of control spending under control.
(A) This is a common argument on the Right and good enough that the MSM has their “both sides do it” case study, and (B) for those of you thinking youngins will vote Democrat because of GOP overreach need to realize that (I) this is their base line for normal politics and (II) whatever drove the the Great Depression generation and some Baby Boomers to believe that government can be a collective force to improve people’s lives is dead.
Watergate/Vietnam and then Reagan started killing the belief in government off, the Clinton era scandals and/or failure to get meaningful liberal legislation passed put it in life support and the lies of Bush & Co. to get us into Iraq put it on the grave.
I believe, on my anecdotal experience, the youngins will be more apoltical than previous generations. Getting them to buy into an agenda of government is not the problem, but the solution is going against three generations of programming.
The people who vote, ie are not put off by modern Republicans are already jaded enough to accept this mess as normal and the generational wave we hope will save this country will not be as strong as some think to shift the balance of power.
*my iPhone auto corrects to libtards not sure why it thinks that is a proper word
Gene108
Obama voted against raising the debt limit in 2005 or so. Therefore libtards* are hypocrites for defending Dear Leader Obama’s vote and comments about the debt being too damn high (when it was much lower under GWB than it is now), but libtards are now picking on Republicans for trying to get Obama’s out of control spending under control.
(A) This is a common argument on the Right and good enough that the MSM has their “both sides do it” case study, and (B) for those of you thinking youngins will vote Democrat because of GOP overreach need to realize that (I) this is their base line for normal politics and (II) whatever drove the the Great Depression generation and some Baby Boomers to believe that government can be a collective force to improve people’s lives is dead.
Watergate/Vietnam and then Reagan started killing the belief in government off, the Clinton era scandals and/or failure to get meaningful liberal legislation passed put it in life support and the lies of Bush & Co. to get us into Iraq put it on the grave.
I believe, on my anecdotal experience, the youngins will be more apoltical than previous generations. Getting them to buy into an agenda of government is not the problem, but the solution is going against three generations of programming.
The people who vote, ie are not put off by modern Republicans are already jaded enough to accept this mess as normal and the generational wave we hope will save this country will not be as strong as some think to shift the balance of power.
*my iPhone auto corrects to libtards not sure why it thinks that is a proper word
Gene108
Obama voted against raising the debt limit in 2005 or so. Therefore libtards* are hypocrites for defending Dear Leader Obama’s vote and comments about the debt being too damn high (when it was much lower under GWB than it is now), but libtards are now picking on Republicans for trying to get Obama’s out of control spending under control.
(A) This is a common argument on the Right and good enough that the MSM has their “both sides do it” case study, and (B) for those of you thinking youngins will vote Democrat because of GOP overreach need to realize that (I) this is their base line for normal politics and (II) whatever drove the the Great Depression generation and some Baby Boomers to believe that government can be a collective force to improve people’s lives is dead.
Watergate/Vietnam and then Reagan started killing the belief in government off, the Clinton era scandals and/or failure to get meaningful liberal legislation passed put it in life support and the lies of Bush & Co. to get us into Iraq put it on the grave.
I believe, on my anecdotal experience, the youngins will be more apoltical than previous generations. Getting them to buy into an agenda of government is not the problem, but the solution is going against three generations of programming.
The people who vote, ie are not put off by modern Republicans are already jaded enough to accept this mess as normal and the generational wave we hope will save this country will not be as strong as some think to shift the balance of power.
*my iPhone auto corrects to libtards not sure why it thinks that is a proper word
Gene108
Obama voted against raising the debt limit in 2005 or so. Therefore libtards* are hypocrites for defending Dear Leader Obama’s vote and comments about the debt being too damn high (when it was much lower under GWB than it is now), but libtards are now picking on Republicans for trying to get Obama’s out of control spending under control.
(A) This is a common argument on the Right and good enough that the MSM has their “both sides do it” case study, and (B) for those of you thinking youngins will vote Democrat because of GOP overreach need to realize that (I) this is their base line for normal politics and (II) whatever drove the the Great Depression generation and some Baby Boomers to believe that government can be a collective force to improve people’s lives is dead.
Watergate/Vietnam and then Reagan started killing the belief in government off, the Clinton era scandals and/or failure to get meaningful liberal legislation passed put it in life support and the lies of Bush & Co. to get us into Iraq put it on the grave.
I believe, on my anecdotal experience, the youngins will be more apoltical than previous generations. Getting them to buy into an agenda of government is not the problem, but the solution is going against three generations of programming.
The people who vote, ie are not put off by modern Republicans are already jaded enough to accept this mess as normal and the generational wave we hope will save this country will not be as strong as some think to shift the balance of power.
*my iPhone auto corrects to libtards not sure why it thinks that is a proper word
PsiFighter37
@WereBear: We really need to make Boehner our stooge. Him + 20 sane enough Republicans so we have some working order in the House.
The thing is, I don’t think Boehner is as sane as everyone thinks. He’s pretty goddamn spineless IMO.
dmsilev
WP seems to be dying. I blame Obamacare.
El Cid
@celticdragonchick: I love how “un-Constitutional” for righties has come to mean “anything that wasn’t originally in the part of the Constitution that I choose to remember.”
dmsilev
FYWP is dying. I blame Obamacare.
The Dangerman
@celticdragonchick:
Pretty much this; we aren’t going to have a default, but the hell to be paid, short term and long term, will be staggering.
I’m still saying no shutdown, BTW. The Right will move it’s all in to the credit limit.
trollhattan
@PsiFighter37:
Sensors detect a small flaw in your plan.
Roger Moore
@WereBear:
I think it’s time to open up those FEMA camps. Then we can have not just a lasting solution but the Final Solution to The Republican Problem.
IowaOldLady
I’m still staggered by the strength of the hysterical reaction to a very mild health insurance reform based on Romneycare and Heritage Foundation plan. It’s so out of proportion to the law that it’s hard for me to believe they’re not faking, but a significant number of them seem to have drunk their own coolade.
MattF
@Roger Moore: Oh, where are those jack-booted thugs when you really need them?
Redshift
@El Cid: It’s like the Bible to them; it’s a talisman, not a document. What they know it means is what’s important, not what it actually says.
For some reason, it reminds me of this:
Raven Onthehill
Thoughts:
1. What Digby Said.
2. To some extent, this is brinkmanship. The Republican rank-and-file is primed to rage at the least sign of anything that actually affects them, as opposed not them. A government shutdown will be popular in rural states…until farm subsidies don’t arrive. So the Republican leadership has to threaten, while reassuring its constituency it will only affect people who are not them. Question is, do they realize what will affect their constituents? I am not sure.
PsiFighter37
@trollhattan: Yeah, I know.
Now that WP decided to allow us back on, it seems like the next play from the House GOP is a 1-year delay in Obamacare. Fuck these guys – do they really Obama is going to roll back his signature legislative achievement because these shitheads can’t manage to win elections?
Fuck them, someone in polite circles needs to start calling Republicans what they are – economic racist terrorists who cannot stand anything happening because a black man is in the White House. Someone needs to crash one of Sally Quinn’s circlejerks and make a scene. This shit has got to come to an end.
dmsilev
@PsiFighter37: Assuming that this latest House bill passes (not guaranteed), the Senate is just going to do exactly what it did to the last one: Strip out the nonsense and send a clean CR back.
Redshift
@IowaOldLady: They’ve locked themselves in a bubble where there’s nothing to drink but kool-aid. It’s a long tradition of the paranoid style.
I’m thinking of the Birchers and the black-helicopter crowd and their obsession with a UN takeover. Anyone who’s looked at the UN for five minutes can see this is ludicrous, but that doesn’t stop them from being absolutely convinced that it’s an all-powerful one-world government that will immediately take over if they give up their personal Glock.
Raven Onthehill
So let’s @celticdragonchick: “Never underestimate the power of malignant incompetence.”
Where’s the “like” button on this thing?
SiubhanDuinne
@dmsilev:
@dmsilev:
It is time to turn “Obamacare” into an inflected verb. Like “Bork.”
Ex: This site has been Obamacared all afternoon.
Ex: FYWP for Obamacaring the site.
Villago Delenda Est
@MattF:
Obama needs to get off his thin black ass and get those FEMA camps up and operational. I am growing impatient with his lack of leadership in this matter.
Roger Moore
@IowaOldLady:
It’s hard to know how many of the Republican legislators really believe that Obamacare will do all the bad things they accuse it of, how many are playing to the Teabagger caucus, and how many are worried that letting it be successful will make government popular and undermine their attempts to destroy it. There may be some overlap between the groups, but it would take genuinely stunning cognitive dissonance to accept both 1 and 3- not that I put it past some of the crazier Republicans. And BTW, it’s Kool-Aid, not coolade.
Redshift
I responded to a comment on Maddowblog expressing a reasonable doubt about the 14th Amendment approach, because the amendment also gives Congress the power to enforce it, and because Congress has plenary power (meaning absolute authority) over spending, so the president can’t claim authority in that realm. I thought I’d repost it here so you guys can try to poke holes in it:
This is not actually a conflict between the president and Congress over spending powers, it’s a conflict between one action of Congress and another. Specifically:
– Congress has authorized a certain amount of spending
– Congress has established a tax code that produces a smaller amount of revenue
– Congress has established a debt limit that will no longer account for the difference
No matter what action is taken by the president, it will violate one of these, because it’s mathematically impossible not to. Refusing to breach the debt ceiling will violate the duly enacted appropriations bill (or continuing resolution, in this case.)
From a quick Google search, it appears that when conflicting federal laws are passed, the courts can decide that the later law repeals the conflicting provisions earlier one by implication. (They also sometimes decide that Congress didn’t mean to do that, and invalidate the later provisions. It’s complicated.)
But I would say that even without invoking the 14th Amendment, there is a reasonable case that the courts might uphold that by appropriating spending above the authorized debt limit, Congress has implicitly repealed the debt limit.
If that is our constitutional scholar-president’s trump card, it would abolish the debt ceiling and be yet another one of the how-did-he-do-that results that he’s become known for. I’ll admit I tend to be an optimist, but I hope that’s the case.
PsiFighter37
@dmsilev: But the House compromised by not defunding Obamacare but just delaying implementation of one year?! Can’t you see that the House GOP is willing to compromise, why won’t Democrats in the Senate?
/expected reaction from the idiot media
P.S. That asshole Joe Manchin already said he’d support a one-year delay in implementing the law. Fuck him for being a useless turncoat and a worthless replacement for Robert Byrd.
Raven Onthehill
What we are looking at is the kind of conflict that eventually leads to civil war. The pointed words may eventually be replaced by other sorts of pointed things.
I’m trying to understand what this means in our time. It won’t be a regional secession, but it might be a “gang colors” sort of thing, where one has to wear the proper colors or risk violence. And wow are there plenty of weapons to fight a civil war with.
More food for corvids.
IowaOldLady
@Roger Moore: The misspelling hurt you, didn’t it? At least if we get ads, they’ll be better than the ones about t o e f u n g u s.
Fair Economist
@PsiFighter37:
I’m almost looking forward to the House passing this. Because if Reid takes it up and gets filibustered by Cruz (as is likely) then Tuesday we’ll get stories like:
The Republicans are going to look idiotic, delusional, and incompetent all at once.
Raven Onthehill
This just in—”House Republicans unveiled a plan on Saturday that would keep the government open until Dec. 15 in exchange for a one-year delay of Obamacare.”
We’re on track for the shutdown. Start buying canned beans.
Gene108
@IowaOldLady:
Obamacare was the right-wing catch phrase, I guess, poll tested wording to hang the PPACA forever around the necks of Democrats.
Now that it looks like the PPACA will do more good than harm, bussineses have not had much trouble adjusting to it as it builds on the existing employer based insurance system and thus no significant push back from big business, and it is not going to bust the budget Republicans are stuck with the fact their word smithing is going to bite them in the ass.
As medical inflation is brought under control, and people get used to universal insurance coverage everyone will thank Obama for Obamacare; they have to destroy the PPACA now because they’ve too closely associated it with this President, since the law seems to be working.
aimai
@Roger Moore: None of them believe Obamacare will be bad for the average citizen. None of them. IF they did they would let it go through. There is nothing in the legislation that is so expensive or so complex that letting it go through for a year and fuck everyone up would be bad for the economy,and if it were really going to piss people off like a bad day at the DMV it would be good for the Republican party. So by definition, since they are not letting it be implemented, they believe that doing so would be good for the Dems. They’ve always been upfront about this: letting the dems pass any kind of comprehensive health care law has always been seen as the final blow to the Republican party not because it won’t work but because it will. The tea party lunatics may be true believers that the ACA is doomed, but the vast majority of Republican players know that the opposite is true. The ACA will work and will cement the status of the Democratic party with a generation of voters.
dmsilev
@PsiFighter37: Manchin backtracked a bit an hour or so later, saying he didn’t support shutting down the government as a way of messing with Obamacare. And he did vote with the rest of the Democrats in favor of stripping the defunding clause yesterday.
Belafon
About the only thing that I fear from a Cruz presidential run, and I really don’t fear it, is that Obama is not running. The person standing next to Cruz in the presidential debates needs to be able to call out his lies without raising his/her voice, and needs to be so calm that it drives Cruz insane. Whoever it is needs to realize that all it takes to push Cruz over the edge is not reacting to Cruz’s presence.
Roger Moore
@IowaOldLady:
No more than any other misspelling. I assumed it was made in ignorance and thought an aside to correct it would be a reasonable thing to do. I hadn’t realized you were trying to avoid getting strange ads.
SatanicPanic
Let’s all calm down. The government shuts down- big deal. They impeach Obama- big deal. We’ve already seen what happens when the Republicans do that. I’m not exactly shaking. If we default- oh well. That sucks, but where else is money gonna go? Europe? Japan? China? Not likely. If there’s any lesson in the last financial crisis it’s that there is so much capital floating around people are desperate for any investment that even looks halfway safe.
Is this a coup? No, no it’s not. Let’s all just take it easy. I was one of those people back in the Bush years wondering aloud if the Republicans were going to shut down elections forever- I’m not making that mistake again. I don’t think Obama, Pelosi and Reid didn’t expect this and don’t have some sort of plan. The sky is not going to fall.
Raven Onthehill
@SatanicPanic: “The government shuts down- big deal.”
The Social Security and Unemployment checks don’t come.
Big deal.
IowaOldLady
@Roger Moore: Oh no, you were right. I guessed wrong at the spelling. I was just claiming the ad thing as unintended benefit. Some misspellings make me crazy, so I was genuinely sympathizing.
PsiFighter37
@dmsilev: I hope the White House threatened even more regulations on coal if he didn’t.
I forget what Cole’s opinion of him is, but from what I recall he wasn’t a big fan.
dmsilev
Harry Reid:
Redshift
@Raven Onthehill: The entire modern conservative view of government is that the vast majority of government spending goes to not-you, and if we just cut out everything that’s going to the undeserving, we could eliminate most taxes and still have no deficits. They have been told repeatedly, and therefore believe, that most of the federal budget goes to welfare, foreign aid, and PBS, despite the fact that together these are a tiny fraction of the budget.
It used to be that the people who were elected mostly knew this wasn’t true, but it played well with the rubes. Then those people realized grifting was even more lucrative and moved on, and the True Believers became the elected officials. They can’t produce a budget because the cuts they’re sure would be easy aren’t there, but they still know it’s true and refuse to be told differently.
And here we are.
Belafon
@PsiFighter37: His opinion was like most of ours, especially those of us from Southern States: He’s a fucker, but he’s not a Republican.
SatanicPanic
@Raven Onthehill: Sure, it really sucks for some people. It’s not End of the Republic.
Raven Onthehill
@Redshift: yes, yes, yes! “And here we are.”
Now what?
ruemara
@Ted & Hellen: You’re an artist. Any fucker with instagram and a printer can do your job. You’re a few filters away from redundancy. Depending on the tastes of the potential customer, you’re either a genius with acrylics worth several hundred, or you’re a hack in paint spatters. Any twat with a BFA is you. And you’re still not secure, because any twat with an artistic streak is you. The point? They can be you in their hobby time. You, however, are free to not be them at all.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
At what point do we all recognize this is all just political theater? Boehner and McConnell letting the Tea Party do a controlled burn while keeping the trains running on time so they don’t repeat 2006?
Redshift
@SatanicPanic:
I certainly believe they have a plan. I just wanted to get my idea out there so if I turn out to be right, I can be smug.
xian
@burnspbesq: bully pulpit!
Raven Onthehill
@SatanicPanic: “Sure, it really sucks for some people.”
“Some,” being tens of millions.
“It’s not End of the Republic.”
Maybe it is. At least, it’s going to be the reform of the Republic.
“I don’t think Obama, Pelosi and Reid didn’t expect this and don’t have some sort of plan.”
Like they had a plan the last time this happened? If there is one failure of this administration that is most clear, it is their total failure to understand their opponents.
Now what? Martial law?
aimai
@SatanicPanic: We default is a big deal. Our rates for borrowing money will go through the roof. The cost of servicing the new debt load will be enormous.
SatanicPanic
@Raven Onthehill: I don’t remember martial law being declared in the 90s. I don’t remember any major reforms happening either.
FlipYrWhig
@Redshift:
Yup. I’m in total agreement on this diagnosis. And the reaction to “Obamacare” is not inexplicable at all: just like how when conservatives say “deficit” they mean “too much spending on Those People,” when they say “Obamacare” they mean “too much spending on Those People.” It’s all “welfare.” They don’t care what any of these things actually are or do. They react because they think someone’s taking the stuff they worked hard for and giving it to bums, thugs, and whores, and they think Republicans will make it stop. And when Republicans _don’t_ make it stop, it’s still Democrats’ fault, because probably they used trickery and called everyone racists.
Chris
@Roger Moore:
My knee jerk guess for most cases like this is that they do believe in their own kool aid, simply because it allows them to continue looking at themselves in the mirror. After all, if Obamacare doesn’t do all these bad things, then there’s no reason to stop it, and all they’re doing is fucking over a bunch of people for their own gratification. Who likes to think of themselves as the bad guys?
… but at the same time, you hear their repeated, almost mandatory at this point, expressions of contempt for the less fortunate, and you look at career choices like Mitt Romney at Bain Capital destroying company after company… and it’s really hard to believe that they even give that much of a shit.
Redshift
@SatanicPanic: In the 90s we had a government shutdown, not a default on the debt.
Raven Onthehill
Redshift/Satantic: like they had a plan the last time?
I am starting to be reminded me of the Iraq war advocates who sincerely believed US troops would be greeted as liberators and that the war would quickly be over. My take on it:
1. The Democrats do not understand their opponents. They don’t know—have refused to learn about—what they are fighting and so their strategies are consistently wrong.
2. Any plan from “Obama, Pelosi and Reid” will therefore be wrong. Even if it succeeds, it is going to produce unexpected and unpleasant outcomes.
Croak!
SatanicPanic
@Redshift: I certainly don’t think a default will be a good thing, I just don’t expect I’ll be living in Bartertown next year.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
(Sorry if this has been addressed already. And sorry if this appears twice.)
There’s a sensible reason for the debt limit, given the way the law exists at the moment.
Wikipedia:
The sensible solution to the problem is to bring back the Gephardt Rule (and codify it). (We don’t want Congress voting every time the Treasury wants to issue a bond to pay the bills.) But since the House is run by an insane caucus, they’re unlikely to do the sensible thing.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Redshift
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: Maybe when Boehner’s own bills stop getting voted down or pulled because they don’t have enough Republican votes to pass. I see little evidence that Boehner is in control of what’s happening at all (and McConnell is trying very hard to avoid having his name associated with anything, to keep from giving ammunition to his teabagger challenger.) If you do, please point it out; it would make me feel much more relaxed.
What kind of “controlled burn” do you think would make the teabaggers feel like they’d accomplished something and could let the trains run on time?
MikeJ
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: When’s the last time congress passed a budget?
Redshift
@SatanicPanic: I’m generally inclined to be an optimist, so I don’t think it’s likely either. But we really really don’t know what would happen, and I’m not sanguine that we’d avoid a major economic crisis. Based on the effects of the threatened default in 2011, at minimum millions of people will suffer economically at a time when their reserves are already depleted, and I don’t think that’s something to be blase about.
RSA
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
As you observe, the sensible solution isn’t in the picture. I’ll suggest a senseless solution: One of the more liberal Democrats in the House might propose a bill, consistent with with 14th Amendment, to make defaulting on the debt a federal crime; the moment it happens, all members of Congress become subject to arrest and imprisonment. I suspect it would have strong popular support outside of Congress.
Bill D.
@Alex S.:
Nope. Default only means that some payments on debt, somewhere, that were due do not get paid on time. This could be interest payments or repayment of principal. This does not necessarily mean that some payments due never get paid, although it could mean that in principle. On a practical level it does *not* mean that all or most federal debt in wiped clean with 100% losses to creditors.
If there is a default on the national debt due to the debt limit not being raised, assuming this situation only lasts for a short time, it’s highly likely that all debt payments due would be paid, just with a small percentage of them being late. What would be significant for holders of federal debt would be loss of market value (resale value) of these debt instruments due to markets repricing their perceived risk from the current no-risk assumption.
This is quite aside from the worldwide financial and economic side effects, which would be far more significant than what I describe above.
Amir Khalid
@Ted & Hellen:
Even your correction is wrong. The current House Majority Leader, like the current Speaker, is a Republican: Eric Cantor. Nancy Pelosi is the House Minority Leader.
Does it not embarrass you to be corrected on this point by someone from the other side of the planet?
Gene108
@Amir Khalid:
Maybe he means Senate Majority Leader
IowaOldLady
Apparently the Rs were “ecstatic” over their proposal to delay the ACA for a year and drop the medical device tax that’s part of the funding. They think they’re winning. I am agog.
Davis X. Machina
@SatanicPanic:
Now that’s a lousy attitude. Imagination is called for. And Bartertown is lovely this time of year.
Me, I’m taking a page from DailyKos during the 2008 market melt-down. A non-trivial number of posters over there kept telling me that the bailout was a bad idea, and that letting the international system of trade and finance all go ‘smash’ was the portal to a better life.
I should look forward to experiencing the joys of subsistence agriculture, and handicrafts, of breaking free from the trammels of consumerism. Of getting to know my neighbors through barter, and cooperative labor in the fields. Of re-discovering the joys of life off-line, like reading books — by daylight. Of shrinking one’s carbon footprint. I even remember discussions of which seeds to hoard.
A little Thunderdome, a little LIttle House on the Prairie.…
Cassidy
@Amir Khalid: If being an obnoxious supporter of Sandusky and shooting black people for being black doesn’t embarrass it, why would it start now?
H. Dumpty
Delurking for a moment…
If you want to kill the economy and blame Obama, doesn’t it make sense to shut the government down before defaulting on the debt to minimize the possibility of corrective measures that could be taken in the short term? I don’t think we should look at shutdown and default as an either/or proposition. Maybe they’re a package deal.
Roger Moore
@efgoldman:
If Republicans are circulating in them, they definitely aren’t polite circles.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@MikeJ:
Dunno. You can check as easily as me. :-)
Presumably the Gephardt Rule could be easily modified to cover Continuing Resolutions (if it didn’t already). One or the other is required for the USA to be authorized to obligate funds.
Interestingly, there’s a bill in the Rules Committee to bring the Gephardt Rule back. That version includes CRs. (Unfortunately, the bill will likely die there.)
Cheers,
Scott.
Hill Dweller
@IowaOldLady:
The wingnuts are trying to polish a turd. They have no leverage, and will eventually fold. Hopefully they do it before causing too much damage.
Amir Khalid
@Gene108:
Maybe he did, at that. I was just assuming that he’d only made only one mistake, namely thinking that the Speaker was a Democrat, rather than also confusing the House and the Senate. Apparently I was being too generous.
RevRick
@Hungry Joe,
You have hit the most salient point in all this: that as bad as the economic consequences may be, far worse is the Constitutional crisis at the heart of the matter. The Republicans are nullificationists, pure and simple. They seek to overthrow the election, reduce the office of the Presidency to a hollow figurehead and empower a tyrannical minority into total control of our government.