In the run-up to the 2012 election, two of my colleagues — one a difficult idiot, the other one of my best friends in the department — were always talking about Romney had a good chance to win because the political future markets showed a close race. I told the one I’m friends with that political futures markets are worthless because the amounts of money in it are too small, and a few FOUL-MOUTHED PARTISANS with reasonable scratch can distort the whole thing.
“A new academic paper digging into presidential betting in the final weeks of the 2012 election finds that a single trader lost between $4 million and $7 million placing a flurry of Intrade bets on Mitt Romney — perhaps to make the Republican nominee’s chance of victory appear brighter,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The anonymous trader placed 1.2 million pro-Romney contracts, some of which were actually in the form of bets against a Barack Obama victory. The most plausible reason for the betting, the authors conclude, is that ‘this trader could have been attempting to manipulate beliefs about the odds of victory in an attempt to boost fundraising, campaign morale, and turnout.'”