The Senate just passed their version of the immigration reform bill, which will go to the House and either die or be converted into a poison pill.
Boehner is so weak that I wonder if there will even be a vote on immigration reform in the House, but if I had to bet, I’d go with a poison pill bill that dies in conference. That gives Republicans an opportunity to say they passed something, but the Democrats wouldn’t compromise.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
You sound optimistic. I don’t think Boehner has the ability to pass anything other than a bill that says “All Mexicans must be hunted down and catapulted over the Rio Grande.” Mexican in this case being defined as anyone who is not white, Christian, and straight.
cokane
a solid prediction imo. house will pass a version, then say the senate needs to get its act together.
Roger Moore
I doubt that the Teabaggers want to say they passed something. They want to say they defeated the Senate’s amnesty proposal, and that means passing nothing. If anything gets through the House, it will because Boehner once again broke the Hastert
rulesuggestion and cooperated with the Democrats.El Cruzado
@cokane: You’re giving them too much credit frankly. Personally I think either nothing goes through or something mediocre but livable passes with most D votes and a few R ones.
MikeJ
The house version will be “Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.”
Yatsuno
@Roger Moore: Pretty much this. And Nancy ain’t gonna bail his ass out this time. Boehner is pretty much fucked over.
? Martin
There we go. All undocumented immigrants must return to their home country, wait for us to rebuild the Berlin Wall, and then come back in. If they can successfully get through the wall the 2nd time, we’ll let them wear white jackets and black bow ties and serve us at our weddings. Oh, and no homos!
BGinCHI
Regardless of what the House does, I expect some of the discussion on the floor (see Gohmert, Louis) to be material ready made for ads come election time.
What’s the over/under for a “wetback” reference?
PeakVT
I don’t think anything useful is going to be passed until after November 2014. They put a poison pill in the farm bill, for crying out loud. They can’t stop themselves.
Tom Levenson
I’m with those above who think that nothing will pass. There are some number of GOPsters in the house for whom no immigration bill could ever be acceptable (unless it reopens Manzanar to a different clientele). There is no bill that can garner much GOP support that the Democrats won’t reject en masse. Put those two groups together and I don’t see where 218 votes come from.
See, e.g., the farm bill.
Petorado
Yeah, that would be a successful tactic … if the Republicans didn’t pull that same crap with every single piece of legislation entering the House. Besides, with all the Republicans rejoicing about the disemboweling of the VRA, do you think any minorities in the nation are feeling that House Republicans have their back?
Baud
I’m just glad that the House has to deal with it. The worst outcome politically would be for this to have died in the Senate.
askew
Can’t Dems get together with some moderate Republicans and file a discharge petition and force the Senate Immigration bill on to the House floor? That would solve the problem for Dems and Boehner.
Baud
@askew:
The Republicans who signed on would be faced with primaries to end all primaries.
Roger Moore
@Tom Levenson:
FTFY.
askew
@Baud:
But some of those will get voted out by a Dem if they don’t vote for immigration reform. That might be enough to do it.
PeakVT
@askew: Who are these “moderate” Republicans? Why would 17 of them buck the party leadership AND the base on this?
Turgidson
askew
@PeakVT:
The same ones who broke with their party to pass 2 bills this year already when Boehner broke the Hastert rule.s
BGinCHI
If Boehner had any sense he’d just die on this hill, retire from the House and go collect his wingnut welfare from the money men who want it to pass anyway.
Turgidson
@Turgidson:
massive blockquote fail. My post was meant to be in response to mm’s prediction that GOP House will pass an arsenic-laced shit sandwich covered in barbed wire of a bill and then blame the Dems when it all dies in conference. I agree they’re likely to try, but that it won’t go as well as some of their Bullshit Mountain greatest hits.
PsiFighter37
The GOP will be blamed if it doesn’t pass, no matter how the media tries to spin it. Just look at exit poll data in 2016 to confirm this.
Baud
@askew:
Death by hanging or death by firing squad. We’ll see.
Eric U.
I’m surprised that the senate bill got Republican votes
NickT
Nothing will pass. The GOP even-craziers warned Boehner recently not to break the “Hastert Rule” – which means that he can’t pass any sort of remotely sane legislation.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/06/conservatives-threaten-depose-boehner-hastert-rule-immigration.php
MattF
First, nothing is going to happen any time soon. Nothing until after the August recess– but then there will be a series of fiscal crises as various deadlines approach and the stock market gets ‘volatile’, as we say. Repubs will try not to make headlines about immigration policy and hope that the media has a short attention span. Also, Dems would just as soon see Repubs fail. ‘Doing something about a national problem’ is just not part of the House majority’s behavioral repertoire.
Chris
Any chance of Dems and non-teabagger Republicans passing it over the teabaggers’ objections?
Forum Transmitted Disease
No vote. He couldn’t survive as leader if he allows one.
Yatsuno
@Chris: There’s a chance yes. But why would Nancy bother?
SatanicPanic
I can’t imagine Boehner all that happy in his job, maybe this is the way he goes out.
mdblanche
The ball’s in the House’s court now. The (Democratic) Senate passed a bill so the (Republican) House has to do something. Even “do nothing” is something, since that will kill the bill with the House’s fingerprints all over it. Either the House can pass something with enough Repubs for them to get partial credit and stop digging their grave deeper (just step 1 to getting out of it), Boehner can break the Hastert rule and this gets passed without the Repubs getting credit, or it gets killed one way or another and the House gets the blame. Not in the Village of course, but with the immigrants and their families who won’t be falling for any of their lies. Boehner was probably hoping for his Senate colleagues to help him out but they sold him out and now he’s got a bigger headache than ever. Washington’s probably going to have to tap the Strategic Bourbon Reserve before this is all over.
And does anyone know whether Rubio voted to lose the primary or to lose the general election?
Roger Moore
@Yatsuno:
Because she wants an acceptable immigration reform bill passed. SATSQ.
Anya
@SatanicPanic: That’s what I was thinking as well. He might think, to hell with trying to herd wild homicidal cats all the time. I might as well garner some positive publicity from this mess. You know the media will eat it up. I can just see the headlines: “Boehner Takes a Principle Stand,” or “Boehner to the extremist in his party: Go ahead make my day!” He can then get into the lucrative lobbying gigs. It’s a win win for Boehner.
Mary G
The reps will spend the summer recess being screamed at by their Tea Party constituents, ala the ACA “death panel” meetings they had in 2009 and will chicken out on doing anything at all, or else pass some draconian thing the Democrats will, FSM please, stand fast and vote down and the thing will die in conference if it even gets that far.
Every time I hear some Republican idiot say that we need the Berlin Wall on our southern border, I want to scream. Do they think St. Ronnie would approve of that? Are we aiming to emulate Stalin now?
Roger Moore
@mdblanche:
The primary. He voted for, along with Alexander, Ayotte, Chiesa, Collins, Coker, Flake, Graham, Hatch, Heller, Hoeven, Kirk, McCain, Murkowski, and all of the Democrats.
MattF
@Roger Moore: Well, yes, but that’s because she enjoys a high level of cortical functionality, unlike certain other members of Congress. Pelosi will be called upon, some time in September, to act to keep the government running, and will do so. That’s the level we’re at here.
Chris
@Mary G:
It’s even funnier when you consider that in their worldview, every single country outside of the United States and Israel is a communist fascist big government hellhole. They’re denying asylum to refugees fleeing communism! What kind of sick bastard does that?
Mobile Grumpy Code Monkey
@Mary G: It’s kind of scary how much the modern GOP sound and act like old-skool Soviets.
Jeremy
You act like the GOP will not be blamed. They will be blamed no matter what happens if the bill is not passed. Many people in the country especially minorities already have negative opinions of the republican party.
Actually I think Democrats want the bill to pass, but if the bill fails then the Democrats still win.
gbear
Has Nancy Smash said whether she’s on board with the version that the senate passed? I hope that the senate bill is one that house democrats can accept, and I want to see her ride the house republicans into the ground for being the obstructionist assholes that they are.
DavidP
As Tancredo pointed out, even the conference committee route is too dangerous for the Tea Party. Either Boehner rounds up 118 republicans who will support him after he lets the Senate bill come to the floor. or no bill. Discharge petition is another possibility, but is remote.
Mobile Grumpy Code Monkey
@Mary G:
It’s kind of scary how much the modern GOP sound and act like old-skool Soviets.
mdblanche
@BGinCHI:
Negative three months.
MattF
BTW, Bill Kristol opposes immigration reform:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/comprehensive-immigration-reform-just-say-no_737929.html
I wasn’t so sure before, but now I’m thinking that this is shaping up to be a disaster for Republicans.
SatanicPanic
@Anya: I’ve always thought he was in it for the $$$. Probably less stressful and humiliting to move on to a think-tank.
Ronnie Pudding
@gbear: @gbear:
I can’t imagine Plosi and about 90% of them Dems wouldn’t vote for he Senate bill. But if the GOP starts making edits, they’ll call for them too.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mobile Grumpy Code Monkey:
Not to mention a certain political movement in Central Europe that came to power some 80 years ago.
Tom Q
I line up with Probably Never Come to a Vote, but I also think it’s impossible for the GOP crazies to avoid blame on this. As someone said above, in the Beltway media, sure, they’ll give us six varieties of “both sides”. But among the groups affected/watching, no amount of spin will persuade them it’s anyone’s fault but the Teabaggers.
If I’m wrong and they actually find some way to get this passed, all the better — more grateful Hispanic voters, and the gratitude will be lopsidedly Dem. Which is to say, Steve King isn’t wrong politically…just morally. This really is a lose-lose issue for the GOP.
Heliopause
Really, is that such a bad thing? Undocumenteds get a path to citizenship through 142 flaming hoops in exchange for a vast nazification of the border, the money for which will undoubtedly be wrung out of the poor and elderly.
NickT
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/rep-goodlate-i-have-many-concerns-about-senate
Those tealeaves pretty much read themselves.
geg6
@Mobile Grumpy Code Monkey:
Not really, if you go and check out the life history of Irving Kristol.
Zifnab25
Isn’t there a proposal for a $30B mega-fence in this bill? Nevermind all the outsources of the actual citizenship process. There’s a whole ton of pork in this bill, and quite a bit of it is aimed at the (bright red) border states like Texas and Arizona.
I’ve actually got my money on Boehner breaking the Hastert rule and letting this bill slide through, if only because plenty of folks stand to make out like bandits with all the government contracts on the table. Add to that the growing realization that the Hispanic population isn’t getting any smaller, reform or no. Republicans have quite a few reasons to fudge this bill through.
It’s not like they can’t come back and blame the Democrats later on.
kindness
Naaa. The House won’t pass anything with respect to immigration reform. Nothing. It’s how they roll.
Redshift
@SatanicPanic:
Yeah, but his money pipeline comes from the hyper-speed revolving door between his staff and lobbyists. They’re his only real constituency. Going to a wingnut welfare “think” tank would mean a continued comfortable lifestyle, but a complete loss of prestige; do you think anyone would care about Boehner’s opinion on anything? I think that’s what keeps him going with his miserable caucus. The only reasons people stay in Congress are because they’re accomplishing things or because they have a need to feel important. Since Boehner has never accomplished much of anything other than being the middleman to lobbyists buying congressmen, I’m inclined to think that he’s in the latter category.
Redshift
@NickT:
No it doesn’t. The fact that they say that doesn’t mean they’ll actually do it, any more than Boehner’s declarations that he won’t break the “rule” should be taken at face value. How many times have both been said before?
There have been plenty of opportunities to boot Boehner for breaking the Hastert Rule, including one about a vote to raise taxes, which is the vilest sort of wingnut blasphemy, and it hasn’t happened. I have to wonder if the real reason is that nobody else actually wants the job. Cantor has obviously been positioning himself for years to take over if/when Boehner goes, but that’s not the same as wanting it right now. While Cantor is no brighter than Boehner on policy, he’s not a complete dummy on political maneuvering, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he grasps what a miserable job it is with the current mob.
I think it’ll happen one way or another.
NickT
@Redshift:
On this issue, I think it means precisely what it says. Whatever Boehner’s inclinations and whatever the pressure from the GOP senators who voted for the bill, there’s no way that the hard right are going to pass any meaningful form of immigration reform. They don’t want to lose their seats and their base would go apocalyptically nuclear if they passed the Senate bill. My guess is that if they think somewhat rationally they’ll hack away at it piece by piece until nothing worth voting for is left and then throw it back to the Senate to vote down so they can say that they didn’t vote for liberal immigration reform and still blame the liberals for destroying it anyway. More likely though is a scream of full-on rabid refusal coupled with some not so subtle racism.
ffredpalakon
Because I’m a d-bag and because certain things annoy me, I’m gonna post this.
This is a footnote from Conor Friedersdorf’s “Paranoia Strikes Deep: The Press and Rand Paul”, his rousing defense of the senator:
This is “Citing border security, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul will not back immigration reform bill” by James Carroll:
Just a nice point of reference when you get a lecture from this man about the impurity of your principles.
danimal
I’ve never seen a viable way this thing passes the House until today. With Boehner absolutely, positively, forever and ever committed to the Hastert Rule (at least until the summer budget/debt limit season starts), there is no way to pass anything with 218 Republican votes. But I have a sneaky suspicion there’s a plan out there, because all of a sudden there’s a lot of talk around filing a discharge petition. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/06/how-immigration-reform-can-pass.html That gets Mr. Orange Bourbon off the hook, allows the GOP to pick their 17-25 sacrificial lambs and allows conservatives to remain strong men and women of character, unsullied by compromise. What’s not to love?
Yatsuno
@danimal: Nancy is gonna want a major concession elsewhere for filing the petition. It’s a matter of what the Oompa-Loompa thinks he can extort in return for allowing this to happen.
Groucho48
The Senate bill is already awful and, at best, any dealings with a House bill will only make it slightly worse. The Republicans just have too many ways to prevent anyone from ever getting citizenship through it. in the meantime, spending 47 billion on pure nonsense.
I keep asking my right wing adversaries…you really want to mandate drones and electronic surveillance over the U.S. AND hire 20000 more Federal employees? They generally evade or straw man…yeah, yeah, liberals want completely open borders to get more votes.
Thlayli
“Alexander”?
Wait, LAMAR! Is still alive, and still a Senator?
Mn, nobody tells me anything….
PsiFighter37
@danimal: Can’t imagine this happening, but hey, you never know. I guess it’s be Orange Julius’ version of leading from behind.
@NickT: But didn’t Saint Ronnie sign the 1986 bill? Guess his corpse can be thrown under the bus along with everyone else
NickT
@PsiFighter37:
Well, there’s Historical Ronnie who taxed and spent like it was going out of fashion and was questionably present at the best of times – and then there’s Mythical Ronnie who hunted the Ayatollah down, riding a velociraptor and firing a six-shooter, while curbing the deficit,creating a working Star Wars system that won the Cold War, and,of course, siring Timothy of House Tebow.
SiubhanDuinne
@MattF:
One can but hope.
LeftCoastTom
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
I don’t think Boehner has the ability to pass anything other than gas.
Bob h
At least we can be sure the failure is going to take a toll on what is left of Hispanic regard for the GOP. The price will be heavy.