I was looking at the internals of the latest PPP poll of the Massachusetts Senate race [pdf] to see if things were dire for Markey, who’s only holding a 4% lead (more Democratic disarray, panic!). Markey is more well-known and more popular than his opponent, Gabriel Gomez, the undecideds describe themselves as “liberal” by 32-25, and 61% of the undecideds are women. So Markey can pull this out if he runs a decent campaign, which is always a question for someone who used to hold a seat in a district that hadn’t elected a Republican since the 1920’s, and won his last seat 76-24. Also, there’s this:
The 2012 exit polls showed that 18% of the voters were youngs. Turnout in a special election is always hard to predict, but the youngs break for Markey by 7 in this poll, so if a few more of them can lay off their bongs and WoW for the time it takes to stop by a polling place and vote, Markey will probably win this thing.
Zam
Lots of young people don’t have land lines, and last I heard most polls didn’t, or weren’t allowed to call cells.
Punchy
I’d say 66% olds, 34% youngs is a bit skewed. However, that may be about right for a special election. Cant see kids caring enough about a old white dude and what appears to be a male latino with a chick’s name.
cmorenc
The problem with the youngs is they will have to lay off their bongs and ipods long enough to realize: a) there is a special election; b) what day it is; c) what day the election is being held. Note that b) and c) are not redundant criteria :=)
Todd
OT, but this was absolutely adorable. A dog totally giving himself up on stealing the cat treats.
http://msnvideo.msn.com/?src=v5:share:facebook:&from=mpl_en-us_Entertainment_Downtime_sd_dest#/video/54fb8b5c-fa74-4673-a80f-2e16193b3d9a
Smart dog. Knew he was wrong from the owner looking at the package and knew that consequences were coming, indicative of high level of forward thought.
gogol's wife
@Todd:
That really defines the difference between cats and dogs. My cats do not have the concept of guilt. So cute!
ETA: Sorry, I’m also OT. I forgot it wasn’t an open thread.
WereBear
@gogol’s wife: Cats do feel guilt… they just don’t see how eating can be wrong.
They certainly lack the “obeying authority” button.
MikeJ
I don’t understand the panic about being ahead before any campaigning has started.
the Conster
Gomez is a smarmy fuck. He gave an interview on the radio a couple of weeks ago, and it was all a bunch of mealy mouthed “I’m not a politician” to every question about how he’d vote on the big issues. He’s no Scott Brown, who caught the perfect wave in Jan. 2010.
Just One More Canuck
Doesn’t this poll just reflect the fact that a large percentage (32%) don’t know whether they like Gomez or not, and aren’t really engaged in the election yet. I’m not in Massachussetts but if Gomez is as smarmy as the Conster says, his unfavourables are likely to grow. As long as Markey doesn’t campaign like Coakley, and there’s a strong GOTV campaign, he should win
smintheus
@Just One More Canuck: Yes. Almost nobody has any clear idea who Gomez is. So Markey needs to define him for the public, and maybe Gomez will also help to show what he’s really all about. Unknown candidates almost always get a free ride at first, but eventually the public has to actually make a choice and vote.
FlyingToaster
Problem isn’t the bongs and World of Warcraft; it’s that many of them will be off on summer jobs either where their parents live or where their school internships place them.
School’s out for uni’s well before 25 June.
And Finals means that they won’t be available for canvassing.
The good news is that the olds hereabouts are by no means taking this lying down; we had a higher than expected turnout in my precinct (expected: 375; actual: 490), so there’s a reasonably good chance we can get the old folks out again. And here in the environs of Boston and inside-of-128, these are reliable Democrats, not likely to forget Scotty Brown. If they show up.
Brown swept the 495 vote. That’s the exurban land of unenrolleds and old-style Republicans; that’s who carried Cellucci, Romney and Brown into office (what carried Weld into office was John Silber). I suspect that despite his Navy credentials, and his Wall Street money, Gomez may be a little too smarmy for some of those voters, and, alas, a little too ethnic for the rest.
I hope that the College Democrats make a big push to get absentee ballot applications filled in before folks leave after finals.
James E. Powell
I am going to assume that everyone in a position to do something about this election recalls and regrets that Scott Brown was more than a footnote.
Turning people out works best when the candidate gives the people a reason or two. What are Markey’s reasons?