The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Rose-Colored Shades

Awesome:

New Jersey governor Chris Christie was not invited to address the Conservative Political Action Conference because of his position on gun control, according to a source familiar with CPAC’s internal deliberations who requested anonymity to speak freely.

Christie has a “limited future” in the national Republican party given his position on gun control, the source tells National Review Online. As a result, the CPAC insider says, the focus of this year’s conference, “the future of conservatism,” made Christie a bad fit.

Christie, the source adds, is simply not a conservative in the eyes of organizers.

The New Jersey governor, who has expressed concern about “an abundance of guns out there,” has said he backs the gun-control legislation currently on the books in his state, some of the nation’s most restrictive. Christie has also not been afraid to speak out against the National Rifle Association, calling an ad the group ran in the wake of the Newtown shooting “reprehensible” and “awful.”

Christie also is going to take the money and expand Medicaid. He’s going to have a shitload of fun making it through a wingnut primary.

Obligatory middle finger to people who think I am a Christie fan boy, when in reality I recognize him as one of the real threats to Democrats, so I keep mentioning him. Looks like the teahadists might take care of him before we ever have to worry about him.

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116 replies
  1. 1
    MikeBoyScout says:

    Go Teabaggers!

    I’m so old that I can remember that it was only the Democratic party which formed circular firing squads.

  2. 2
    Hill Dweller says:

    Christie is protected by the beltway cocoon. Put Christie in a national election, subjecting his record(mediocre, at best) to real scrutiny, and he is going to have problems.

  3. 3
    Anne Laurie says:

    No wingnut primary for Christie. He’s gonna run as a Sensible Centrist Democrat, and get endless tongue-baths from media idiots proclaming that at least he’s not one of those DFHs!

  4. 4
    PsiFighter37 says:

    Lot of GOP governors deciding that maybe taking the Medicaid money might not be a bad idea. It will be interesting to see if voters are dumb enough to forget the Teabagger tendencies of these assholes and not vote them out in the upcoming election.

    Oh, and fuck Chris Christie. I’m pretty sure all the public-sector unions (and a good portion of the private-sector ones) hate his guts in NJ. He’ll probably get reelected, but Jersey Democrats need to make his life a living hell in the state legislature. Too bad the state party is corrupt as hell and has bosses like George Norcross effectively running the show.

  5. 5
    Baud says:

    @MikeBoyScout:

    I’m so old that I can remember that it was only the Democratic party which formed circular firing squads.

    So you are at least 3 years old?

  6. 6
    Redshirt says:

    @Anne Laurie: Possible, but it seems unlikely. That’s a razor thin line to walk – see every Republican who’s turned Dem recently.

    Have there been any good successful examples?

  7. 7
    Ted & Hellen says:

    This is a great post, John. Totally agree.

  8. 8
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    Christie has a “limited future” in the national Republican party given his position on gun control,

    I thought Christie was resisting new gun laws? In any case, this means nothing. This crowd hated McCain and was at best lukewarm toward Willard, if they decide in their fevered little brains that Christie can beat Hillary, they’ll try to make him the pen that signs Rand Paul’s legislation, to go back to I think Norquist on Romney. Christie’s biggest enemies are his own thin skin and foul temper, and sooner or later people are gonna notice that his public tantrums tend to be directed against women, and those questions are, I’d be willing to bet, gonna provoke more tantrums. And can we all start now pointing out to Democrats that fat jokes– and I’m not talking to or about blog commenters– will make Christie sympathetic? Thank you.

    For the record, I predicted that McCain was washed up half way through the ’08 primaries, and that the fundies would never let Willard be their standard bearer, so….

  9. 9
    dmsilev says:

    Well, Romney managed to get the nomination despite the distrust and occasional outright hatred by the conservative base. He managed that by vacuuming up a large fraction of the available dollars and burying the not-Romney of the month under a flood of ads. I suppose that path is open to Christie, assuming that the money would be there for him.

  10. 10
    JenJen says:

    It will be amusing to watch Chris Christie fall on the sword.

    He will, you know.

  11. 11
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    Looks like the teahadists might take care of him before we ever have to worry about him.

    This is one of the reasons I think he is not going to be a problem. Add in that I doubt, he is physically capable of dealing with the rigors of a modern national campaign and that I don’t think his abrasive style will play well much west of PA. He is not going to be a threat.

  12. 12

    The CPAC “snub” is so obviously part of a larger attempt to define Christie early on as the non-crazy Republican. Didn’t we just go through an entire 3 months of rehashing what went wrong with the Romney campaign? Wasn’t the number one thing the pundits all said was that “Democrats defined Romney early on as …” fill in the blank? Christie and the GOP establishment are defining their boy now. In 3 years they’ll have set in stone Who Christie Is. And it’s the man of their making, not who the Democrats want him to be.

    For those going through withdrawal, you can always look at his 2012 speech.

    Wake up. It’s akin to Shrub buying that Texas ranch a year before he ran for president.

    In other news, check out the latest crazy wingnut theory about lady parts. This one’s awesome! It’s in our nature to more baybeeez.

  13. 13
    burnspbesq says:

    Could we be so lucky as to see Scott Garrett go after Christie in the Republican primary? The entertainment value would be off the charts.

  14. 14
    dmsilev says:

    @Redshirt: Charlie Christ in Florida is probably the closest.

    (does Chuck Hagel count?)

  15. 15
    Litlebritdifrnt says:

    As I said earlier in another thread I cannot wait to see Scarborough’s epic rant on this in the morning, it is going to be brilliant, especially with Mika saying “carry on Republicans” every five minutes just to taunt Joe.

  16. 16
    dmsilev says:

    @Southern Beale:

    In other news, check out the latest crazy wingnut theory about lady parts. This one’s awesome! It’s in our nature to more baybeeez.

    That’s OK; us guys are programmed to hunt giraffes. I learned that from Professor Gingrich.

  17. 17
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Anne Laurie: I just can’t see that. He is sane by GOP standards, but that isn’t saying much.

  18. 18
    Suffern ACE says:

    He’s the charismatic fat Mitch Daniels.

  19. 19
    Redshirt says:

    @dmsilev: Hagel, no. What’s Crist done yet?

  20. 20
    MikeJ says:

    Trochee ending in “ee” sound. No chance. Which is why he’ll probably be the Democratic nominee.

  21. 21

    @dmsilev:

    Hunt giraffes? Okay I clearly missed something.

    We need to find a cave somewhere to stuff all of these “me Tarzan, you Jane” Republican idiots.

  22. 22
    Ted & Hellen says:

    Great post John. Couldn’t agree more.

  23. 23
    Belafon (formerly anonevent) says:

    @Southern Beale: The guy you quoted at your blog has is causation backwards. He probably tried to play basketball in order to get tall as well.

  24. 24
    Ted & Hellen says:

    @JenJen:

    It will be amusing to watch Chris Christie fall on the sword.

    Isn’t it possible he would just bounce back off of it?

    What?

  25. 25
    Mike in NC says:

    CPAC is the Beltway version of Comic-Con, only featuring people indulging greater fantasies.

  26. 26
    dmsilev says:

    @Southern Beale: Gingrich, in 1995:

    If combat means living in a ditch, females have biological problems staying in a ditch for thirty days because they get infections and they don’t have upper body strength. I mean, some do, but they’re relatively rare. On the other hand, men are basically little piglets, you drop them in the ditch, they roll around in it, doesn’t matter, you know. These things are very real. On the other hand, if combat means being on an Aegis-class cruiser managing the computer controls for twelve ships and their rockets, a female may be again dramatically better than a male who gets very, very frustrated sitting in a chair all the time because males are biologically driven to go out and hunt giraffes.

    He truly is a horrible person, isn’t he?

  27. 27
    NotMax says:

    Mr. Christie may have a slow-burning yen for the national spotlight, but have never felt nor seen in him presidential ambition.

    Don’t happen to care for Christie as a politician, but have always seen his vagueness, misdirection and canny refusal to paint himself into a corner on 2016 as a game to keep the press on his trail (and consequently keep his name in the news).

    One thing I do get from him is that he is quite aware of most of his limitations and liabilities so far as a prez race goes. He may even sanction the expected exploratory committee after the mid-terms to harvest valuable contacts for use after he is governor, then play the ‘not running officially, but stand available should the call of the party comes’ game.

  28. 28
    amk says:

    Meh. he is a 2016 rudy giuliani at best.

  29. 29
    Redshirt says:

    He’s too fat. Unless being too fat is the very thing most Americans (being fat) would vote for. Then maybe he’s just fat enough.

  30. 30
    raven says:

    @Southern Beale: Yea cuz that fat little fuck know all about being in a goddamn foxhole.

  31. 31
    Culture of Truth says:

    Fuck him. He didn’t do jack shit during that hurricane but yell at people and wave at some wreckage.

  32. 32
    raven says:

    @Culture of Truth: What’d you want him to do?

  33. 33
    Culture of Truth says:

    Scott Garrett? Sure he’s egotistical but way too fucking lazy.

  34. 34
    General Stuck says:

    The chasm in the GOP is widening a little more every day. I don’t think Christie has the temperment to run for or be president in this country in the age of mass instant media. I think he knows this full well. Maybe in an earlier age, you could have a more bombastic potus, like a TR. But not today in the digital fish bowl we have.

    But the real question here is in general, the GOP is losing respect with more and more of the electorate, due to the extremists being front and center as the face of the party. Recent polls show a big majority of folks who think they are out of touch and extreme, including a fair number of more moderate goopers. And there are some of those, but they keep quiet in mixed company.

    This is bad enough for them, but added onto the cold numbers of less white voters now and into the future, it is a virtual electoral death sentence for the party status quo. I really don’t know how they turn this situation around, except over time rebuilding a more moderate GOP and hopefully for them, that gets back the Rockefeller republicans of the NE and upper midwest, that are now voting dem or not voting at all.

    But that will take time, and in the mean time, dems are solidifying around the dem party that Obama has made, that should last some time after he is gone from the WH. It is hard to not be pleased at this setup, if you are center left. Though there is always the possibility that some charismatic character will emerge from the shadows and lead the wingnuts to the promised land. But I don’t think Christie is that, nor any other republican on the scene now.

  35. 35
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Culture of Truth: He didn’t get in the way of the people who were helping. For a Republican, that is good.

  36. 36
    danielx says:

    Christie, the source adds, is simply not a conservative in the eyes of organizers.

    “Conservative” has become one of those terms that’s kind of a moveable feast – it means whatever the speaker says it means. Or, better yet, to quote that wise woman Digby

    There is no such thing as a bad conservative. “Conservative” is a magic word that applies to those who are in other conservatives’ good graces. Until they aren’t. At which point they are liberals.

    This goes back a lot farther than Christie’s position on gun control, or Christie appearing with Obama after Hurricane Sandy. Your true conservatives have hated Christie ever since he nominated a Muslim to the state supreme court and told the wingnuts to go fuck themselves when they went full metal crazy about it.

    The only reason that wingnuts were even lukewarm about Christie to begin with was (is) that he acts like a complete asshole to people who oppose him. They like people who act like complete assholes, which I suppose says something about the current sad state of the Republican Party. The more obnoxious the politician or pundit/propagandist the better they like it; whether the pol in question can actually accomplish anything positive is irrelevant. See Walker, Scott; Gohmert, Louie; Bachmann, Michelle; Stockman, Steve; Gingrich, Newt; Limbaugh, Rush; Scott, Rick…my, this is a lengthy list, isn’t it? Are there any Republican politicians left who aren’t complete assholes? (Don’t all jump at once.)

  37. 37
    Anne Laurie says:

    @Redshirt:

    That’s a razor thin line to walk – see every Republican who’s turned Dem recently.

    Well, I’ve certainly been wrong before (I was an Edwards supporter in 2007). But for all her popularity with the general public, there are plenty of True Blue Progressives who have sworn they will never, ever vote for that horrible Hillary person, for a wide variety of reasons. And OfA, for all its genuine accomplishments, has given a voice to authoritarians who choose to vote the (D) ticket. If Christie can take enough of their votes as the Anti-Hillary in the primaries, he can go into the general election advertising himself as the choice for “independents” who normally vote Republican but are a little too embarrassed to pull the lever for whatever lunatic / grifter ends up as last pirhana in the 2016 GOP tank.

    Maybe I’m just a cynic. But while I don’t think Cole would vote for Christie in a Democratic primary, just off the top of my head I could name a dozen commentors here who will insist that choosing Christie in the primaries is not only correct but essential… and only one of them is McClaren, hoping to heighten-the-contradictions.

  38. 38
    Brantl says:

    Ted and Hellen agree with you, John, you gotta be wrong.

  39. 39
    Redshift says:

    @Southern Beale: Newt Gingrich, in 1995, on why women should not be in combat:

    If combat means living in a ditch, females have biological problems staying in a ditch for thirty days because they get infections and they don’t have upper body strength. I mean, some do, but they’re relatively rare. On the other hand, men are basically little piglets, you drop them in the ditch, they roll around in it, doesn’t matter, you know. These things are very real. On the other hand, if combat means being on an Aegis-class cruiser managing the computer controls for twelve ships and their rockets, a female may be again dramatically better than a male who gets very, very frustrated sitting in a chair all the time because males are biologically driven to go out and hunt giraffes.

    I know I’m constantly having to resist the biological urge to hunt giraffes. Visiting the zoo is always a test of willpower.

  40. 40
    Redshirt says:

    First, let’s say it’s Clinton v. Christie (supposing somehow he got through the Primary process.). Clinton, easily.

    Biden v. Christie? Biden.

    Other Dem v. Christie? Good question!

  41. 41
    TR says:

    I love how the GOP has decided, as part of their massive “rebranding” effort, to publicly shit on the one elected Republican in the entire country who’s polling north of 50%.

    Brilliant.

  42. 42
    IowaOldLady says:

    Christie doesn’t have the temperament for a long national campaign with lots of media scrutiny. He’ll provide them with obnoxious moments on tape that can be run in a loop.

    Which is good. Because like Palin, he’s charismatic. Appalling, but charismatic. Also, he’s about a hundred times smarter than she is.

  43. 43
    Culture of Truth says:

    @raven: He could have put more pressure on the power companies to get the power back on, but that would only have pointed out the ball being dropped. Better to have yourself photographed hugging people and watch your popularity rise. Otherwise he’s pretty useless though.

  44. 44
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Southern Beale:

    Wake up. It’s akin to Shrub buying that Texas ranch a year before he ran for president.

    That’s a nice theory, but the test will be GOP primary voters, and I don’t think they’re up to bingo, let alone multi-dimensional chess.

  45. 45
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Anne Laurie: This makes it sound like you think the options in 2016 are Clinton and Christie. I doubt this will be the case. One is going to be on the upper edge age-wise and the other is a Republican.

  46. 46
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Southern Beale: From a review of one of Al Franken’s books

    • Franken quotes Gingrich describing the problems with female combat troops: “If combat means living in a ditch, females have biological problems staying in a ditch for 30 days because they get infections.” Gingrich also says, “Males are biologically driven to go out and hunt giraffes.”
    Writes Franken:
    Two images come to mind. The first is of the grasslands of Africa. During the Neolithic Period. Rush, Newt, and Bill Bennett, all 825 pounds of them, are trying to run down a giraffe. The giraffe is thinking, “No problem here.”
    The second image is of Newt, about fifteen years ago, explaining to his thirteen-year-old daughter that she just got her first “infection.”

    I can’t find a video, but IIRC Franken did this riff live at a DC dinner with Newton Leroy and BB in attendance.

  47. 47

    @amk:

    Meh. he is a 2016 rudy giuliani at best.

    This seems right to me, as does Omnes Omnibus’s point that “his abrasive style [won’t] play well much west of PA.”

    David Frum is so erratic, but he had, or at least related, a great line about Christie a couple years ago:

    A left-wing friend of mine jokes that conservatives are “the party of affect”: meaning that conservatives tend to care much more how a politician speaks than what a candidate says. Christie almost perfectly exemplifies this rule. If he were a soft-spoken, conciliatory Northeastern budget-balancer, he’d be dismissed as a Bill Weld/Mike Castle RINO. But instead, he’s an-in-your-face confrontationalist. So he can favor handgun control and still be the Coulter choice for president. Just so long as he’s rude about it.

    Then during the hurricane, Christie acted like a human, one grateful for competent federal aid, rather than grabbing his balls and screaming at Obama or whatever it is that wingnuts wanted to see.

    I thought at the time that Christie might get a break on that, as once-in-a-century natural disasters don’t happen too often, but I was probably mistaken.

  48. 48
    Culture of Truth says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: “Remember when your life was a living hell? Vote Christie!”

  49. 49
    ChrisNYC says:

    How bizarre is that that things are so skewed that CPAC’s announcement of speakers is HUGE HUGE news. What the hell has CPAC actually done, accomplished? Nada. These people just had an enormous defeat — on both the candidate and on substance — and they are mired in grift and infighting and are continuing on their road to nothingness. Boehner was forced to use bad words today because he can’t get his caucus together for one damn vote. They are limping. Why does anyone act like they matter?

  50. 50
    Jon says:

    Christie’s not running in 2016. He’s running in 2020. Think about it.

  51. 51
    trollhattan says:

    Simply can’t start handicapping ’16, other than the obligatory Hillary–maybe. I just can’t.

    ’14 might could be the teahadists’ last shot at the national stage–they’ll be around, they’ll be running and if they’re losing then and only then are they done.

    And if that happens, “moderate” Republicans, whether reconfigured wingers or closeted RINOs, will emerge like cicadas to run in ’16. It will be a mad scrum and I don’t see Christie surviving the process.

  52. 52
    Anne Laurie says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Christie’s biggest enemies are his own thin skin and foul temper, and sooner or later people are gonna notice that his public tantrums tend to be directed against women, and those questions are, I’d be willing to bet, gonna provoke more tantrums.

    Heck, if (when) he calls Clinton a c*** on a live feed, not only will Rush Limpaugh have a peak sexual experience, he’ll pick up a couple Balloon Juice voters, because Big Feminist Mama is not the boss of them.

  53. 53
    Mike in NC says:

    @raven: But like Dick “Dickhead” Cheney, Newt has a superb collection of war movies on DVD.

  54. 54
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @ChrisNYC: With the exception of Jebbie and Perry, all the CPAC speakers I’ve seen listed, from Palin to Willard to Allen West, are the people Republicans are going to try to keep in the attic for all of calendar 2016.

  55. 55
    Chris says:

    @PsiFighter37:

    Oh, and fuck Chris Christie.

    Word up. The teabaggers may be shooting themselves in the foot, but if they’re also kneecapping Christie’s hopes of a national career, so much the better.

    National politics: Ernst Stavro Blofeld’s fish tank, and the Democrats are the third fish waiting patiently for the first two to tear each other to shreds.

  56. 56
    gf120581 says:

    Christie’s 2016 hopes seem to be pinned on hoping that the Tea Party burns itself out or self-immolates by that time and the “sane” Republicans regain control of the party. Personally, judging by recent party behavior, I’d advise Christie not to hold his breath on that one.

    But even putting aside the shit he’s in with the base, I don’t consider Christie much of a threat for two reasons:

    1. His temperment. He is, by nature, a loud-mouthed bullying asshole and I don’t see him holding up over a long-time nationwide campaign without doing or saying something stupid that cripples his campaign. The chance of him blowing up on national TV or something similar is just too much of a risk to take.

    2. His weight. I’m sorry, but unless Christie does a Huckabee and drops some weight, he will not be taken seriously as a contender. It’s not prejudice against body size, it’s a question of health. People feel a President needs to be healthy and a man who needs a limo to move 100 yards is not physically fit to be President. No one wants a President who looks like he might drop dead of a heart attack at the Inaugural Ball if the dancing gets too strenuous. (He might be the first President to die in office as a result of the Chicken Dance or the Worm.)

  57. 57
    xian says:

    @Ted & Hellen: I’m waiting for that “wrong way cole” guy (Derp?) to chime in and once again misunderstand Cole’s point. I think he’s exactly right (Cole is, that is, not Derf) that Christie is the guy to watch (as Huntsman was before), the Christie is more charismatic than most of the rest of the GOP put together, and that he is still a Republican fucktard.

    Electable Republicans are the most dangerous.

  58. 58
    danielx says:

    Also, too – considering some of the other headliners to appear at CPAC (Snowbilly Snooki comes to mind), somehow I don’t think Christie is exactly shedding tears about not being invited.

  59. 59
    General Stuck says:

    @Anne Laurie:

    And OfA, for all its genuine accomplishments, has given a voice to authoritarians who choose to vote the (D) ticket

    LOLwut? Jeebus AL, your entire comment is some bizarre shit. You need to get out more.

  60. 60
    Chris says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    This crowd hated McCain and was at best lukewarm toward Willard, if they decide in their fevered little brains that Christie can beat Hillary, they’ll try to make him the pen that signs Rand Paul’s legislation, to go back to I think Norquist on Romney.

    Maybe, but not for certain. I was saying in the run-up to the 2012 election that if they had two defeats in a row from someone they perceived as a RINO moderate, they might just snap and insist on a total freak (Palin, Bachmann or Santorum style) for 2016. I still think that’s possible.

  61. 61
    xian says:

    @Jon: You may be right. Popular two-term presidents usually have third-term coat-tails for their successors, but after 12 years of the same party in the White House, low-info voters tend to think it’s time to flip the toggle the other way again.

    There might be “Dem fatigue” by 2020 and Christie may have been able to position himself as the sane alternative by then, especially if he loses enough weight to survive bariatric surgery.

    Then again, we may be in for a long GOP walk in the wilderness if they keep spinning themselves into a tighter and tighter cocoon.

  62. 62
    efgoldman says:

    @Anne Laurie:

    But for all her popularity with the general public, there are plenty of True Blue Progressives who have sworn they will never, ever vote for that horrible Hillary person, for a wide variety of reasons.

    You (and a lot of others) take as a given that she’s running. I really don’t think so. I think the health scare she had last year, plus her age, plus the damned hard work of both a campaign and actually being president, lean against it. I have no magic knowledge, but its clear she’s a workaholic and probably can’t help it. Plus, who would want to deal with all the pure shit that would ooze out of the usual holes. She’s not a ni[clang], but she’s (a) a woman and (b) a Clinton.

    ETA: OTOH, I think the nomination’s hers, if she wants it.

  63. 63
    👽 Martin says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Typical liberal lies.

    There’s no way Newt, Rush, and Bennett only weigh 825 lbs. Shit, Rush is pushing that number all by himself.

  64. 64
    burnspbesq says:

    @Culture of Truth:

    Scott Garrett? Sure he’s egotistical but way too fucking lazy.

    The Dems in the Bergen County part of Garrett’s district are so desperate that they are apparently thinking seriously of resurrecting Andy Maguire, who held the old Ninth District seat from 1975-80, to run against him in 2014.

  65. 65
    xian says:

    @Chris: from your lips to Spaghetti Monster’s auditory tentacles

  66. 66
    gf120581 says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think they’ll keep Perry in the attic as well, especially if he’s no longer governor of Texas. He’s too much of a national joke after 2012.

    Or they’ll try, at least, but they may well fail, as by 2026, there may be no sane Republicans left.

  67. 67
    Redshift says:

    @General Stuck:

    I really don’t know how they turn this situation around, except over time rebuilding a more moderate GOP and hopefully for them, that gets back the Rockefeller republicans of the NE and upper midwest, that are now voting dem or not voting at all.

    Billmon had a very interesting series of tweets comparing the current situation with heavily Southern Republicans with the pre-Civil War Southern Democrats. Now, they dub slight dissenters RINOs and force their candidates everywhere to toe the line on conservative policies that are increasingly unpopular in most of the country. Then, they accused northern Democrats of being abolitionists and forced them to be pro-slavery, even though it was increasingly unpopular in the North.

    Interesting viewpoint.

  68. 68
    Princess says:

    O/T but related: Robin Kelly, the anti-gun progressive candidate just won the Democratic primary in IL-2. This is a good thing.

  69. 69
    Suffern ACE says:

    @efgoldman: she’s been through that already and chose to run for senate and president. Her health, maybe. But I can’t see her sitting out because she’s afraid of what Rush and Geraldo think about her. Feelings mutual.

  70. 70
    trollhattan says:

    @👽 Martin:

    Bad transcription, he said “kilos.”

    Love me some Senator Al. I hope he becomes a LOT more prominent. Is he up for reelection in ’14?

  71. 71
    Jon says:

    @trollhattan: Christie is playing for the backlash that will occur, finally, for real, within the GOP when they lose again in 2016.

  72. 72
    trollhattan says:

    @gf120581:

    Moar Perry means moar Bad Lip Reading of Perry. Win-win.

    “Save a pretzel for the gas jets!”

  73. 73
    Yutsano says:

    @JenJen:

    It will be amusing to watch Chris Christie fall on the sword.

    I am NOT cleaning that mess up.

  74. 74
    Chris says:

    @reflectionephemeral:

    A left-wing friend of mine jokes that conservatives are “the party of affect”: meaning that conservatives tend to care much more how a politician speaks than what a candidate says.

    I think this is true; liberals care more about policy, conservatives care more about empty rhetoric. The ideal unification candidate is someone like Eisenhower who can embrace liberal policies all around the board while still exuding military patriotism, tradition, and all that good stuff that gives regular conservative voters a hard-on.

  75. 75
    dmsilev says:

    @Anne Laurie: There’s no way Christie can run as a Democrat in 2016. It’s just impossible. Look, he’s running for reelection as a Republican next year. Assume he wins. In early 2015, he’s sworn in for his second term as a Republican, and you really think that three or six months later he’s going to be on a debate stage with a bunch of Democratic primary contenders?

  76. 76
    danielx says:

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    That’s a nice theory, but the test will be GOP primary voters, and I don’t think they’re up to bingo, let alone multi-dimensional chess.

    Bingo?!?? Judging from the crowds at the Republican primary debates, those people would make tough going out of trying to decide if blue socks go with a party hat and a fart.

  77. 77
    ChrisNYC says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: But why care? Palin and West are speaking at a hotel ballroom in DC in the spring! ZOMG! I think it’s time that lib blogs stopped treating these people as influential or of any importance. They are half a mile from the wilderness. Dems have a popular second term pres, a popular front runner for 2016, the Senate in basically a lock, the right side of all the big issues and a serious turn out machine. Maybe it’s time to recognize we’re winning rather than puffing up and lavishing attention on these second rate GOP prospects? We’re giving them way more play than they deserve.

    I mean, that primary field from 2012? They should lose their status as anything threatening or formidable on that basis alone. Herman Cain!

  78. 78
    sdhays says:

    @Anne Laurie: Do you really think he could get through a Democratic Presidential primary? I don’t know what the 2016 Democratic Primary slate is going to be, but I have to believe that there are going to be real Democrats that will be more strongly positioned than Chris Christie. Arlen Spector couldn’t win a Democratic primary in Pennsylvania in 2010, even though he had backed the Obama agenda to the hilt and had been fairly liberal throughout his career. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic VP nominee, couldn’t get his campaign to catch fire in 2004 as the Centrist Candidate.

    It doesn’t matter what party you’re in, the candidate that will win the primary is the one who convinces the party base that they are liberal or conservative enough for them to be trusted, and yet less liberal or conservative than would cause their candidate to lose the middle. The only times this breaks down is when the base throws up its hands and goes all in on a very liberal or very conservative candidate, e.g Goldwater or McGovern. Christie would have to switch parties today, run as a Democrat for governor this year, and prove himself a Democrat for the next few years to have any kind of a shot at the 2016 Democratic Presidential primary.

    The man agrees with Democrats on some issues, but he considers himself a Republican, and I think he will run for President as a Republican or not at all. With enough money, maybe he could be persuaded to run as an independent, but I doubt it. I don’t care to speculate on his physical capabilities; it reminds me too much of Bill Frist.

    Christie’s path the Presidency requires a Democratic route in 2014; the Republicans need to lose the House that they think they have locked down and fail again to regain the Senate. He needs Democrats to takeover state governments and undo the gerrymandering. He needs Republicans to grow tired of Obama hatred and accept that Obama won and did some stuff that people like. He needs Republicans to be so scared of the possibility of a decade of solid Democratic control of the Federal government that they are willing to vote for anyone who could retake the Presidency. He needs more than the fever to break; he needs a massive over-reaction. As I understand it, this is basically how Eisenhower got the Republican nomination in 1952.

    Personally, even in the scenario I spelled out, I don’t think that the fever can possibly break that quickly; it took 20 years of Democratic control of the Presidency and Congress to bring the Republicans to nominate Eisenhower, so two years just won’t cut it. He doesn’t have a chance. He might have a shot at Senator in a few years, although I really can’t imagine him taking any position that isn’t some kind of executive position; it’s just not his personality.

  79. 79
    Redshirt says:

    @Yutsano: Remember that scene in Dune when Baron Harkonnen is flying around his medical ooze room?

  80. 80
    trollhattan says:

    @Jon:

    Jeez, do you think he can be their golden boy six years hence? I get the strategy, but suspect Christie’s shelf life is a whale of a lot shorter than that.

    Since I’m on the other coast, I only see his national coverage, so don’t have a feel for how he comes across daily, in regional coverage.

    Hell, Jerry Brown might decide to run again!

  81. 81
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @ChrisNYC: Oh, I agree with you, I can’t figure out why the political media, the VIllagers, make such a big deal out of CPAC. We in the blogosphere? We point and laugh. CPAC is made for us.

  82. 82
    Chris says:

    @dmsilev:

    There’s no way Christie can run as a Democrat in 2016

    Even if he tried, I’d like to think the DLC/Third Way rot hasn’t spread so far in the Democratic Party that the cocksucker who’s been running as a demagogue against public unions (teacher’s unions no less, if memory serves) would actually have a shot of winning.

  83. 83
    amk says:

    @ChrisNYC: Amen. cole should stop shitting in his pants.

  84. 84
    pluege says:

    Nationally, christie is DOA – he has no national constituency: he’s too moderate for the republican loons that is most of republicans and why would Democrats vote for him when they’ve got their own conservadem to vote for?

    Even though christie isn’t moderate in any way, he’s stuck in the space that used to be occupied by moderate republicans, which today is no-man’s land.

  85. 85
    Chris says:

    @sdhays:

    The man agrees with Democrats on some issues, but he considers himself a Republican, and I think he will run for President as a Republican or not at all.

    I suppose it’s possible, however unlikely, that he’ll try to run as a “sane Republican” third party if the GOP nominates someone truly insane. In effect creating a repeat of the 1912 presidential election with Christie as Teddy Roosevelt. We would reap the benefits.

  86. 86
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @amk: AL is one who is going off the deep end on this one.

  87. 87
    Redshirt says:

    Let’s be honest – IF Christie got the Republican nomination, the wingnuts would all fall in line. They’re not voting Democrat, and they’re voting, so…

  88. 88
    MikeBoyScout says:

    The inestimable Charles P. Pierce spoke about idiot Republicans today

    How To Distinguish “Republicans” and “Prominent Republicans”

    The only ones who don’t know it seem to belong to the Centrist Cargo Cult and the other feeders of Vaal within the Beltway. This endless and futile search for reasonable Republicans with the power to enforce reason on the rest of the party is the biggest barrier to a general understanding of what’s gone badly wrong with our politics over the past two decades. It’s also a large part itself of what’s gone wrong.

  89. 89
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Redshirt: If you got the GOP nom, they would vote for you. You aren’t getting it and neither is Christie.

  90. 90
    angler says:

    Jersey fats is giving them misery fits, lets enjoy.

  91. 91
    Chris says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    What you said. I’m sure most of them would fall into line, but I think they might just be angry and radicalized that this time they might vote for a total fucking psycho instead of the “establishment” candidate.

    (A lot depends on how much money the big donors shower Christie – or whoever the “establishment candidate” is – with, and whether the freaks will actually have anyone to rally around or will just have another procession of crazies that they drop within a couple weeks like last time).

  92. 92
    xian says:

    @Redshirt: true, but that’s a big fat IF.

  93. 93
    gf120581 says:

    @sdhays: Very good points. Personally, I think the GOP doing well in the midterms next year would be the worst possible thing for them to do, because it’ll only encourage the teabaggers to stay the course and to nominate a “true conservative” who’ll then get slaughtered by Hillary or whoever in 2016. It may take a bad showing in 2014 for the crazies’ hold on the GOP to start cracking, like if they fuck the GOP chances in the Senate for a third straight cycle.

    You’re very right about Eisenhower, as the moderate/liberal wing of the GOP came to him on bended knee begging him to save the GOP from arch-conservative (and unelectable) Bob Taft. Christie may well see himself as that, but the GOP is nowhere near that status yet. (Mainly because there is no moderate/liberal wing of the GOP anymore.)

    And no, don’t expect Christie to run for the Senate or anything. He’s not a legislator. (God knows he doesn’t have the temperment for it.) After the governorship, it’s the Presidency or nothing for him.

  94. 94
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Chris: I am confident that Christie is too much of a standard old school conservative to survive the next wingnut primary.

  95. 95
    Redshirt says:

    2012 was a ripe year for the Wingnuts, and yet Establishment candidate Mitt got the Nom. If the money boys want Christie in 2016, Fox News and the whole Wingnut Machine will turn on the dime and churn out tsunamis of Christie hagiography. SuperPac monies all flowin’ toward Chris Christ, hell yeah he could get the Nom.

  96. 96
    Suffern ACE says:

    @gf120581: ok. But who the hell are the wealthy moderates who will bankroll Christie? Club for Growth isn’t moderate. Americans for Prosperity? Yeah, thems some moderates. Adelstein? Aspirin guy?

  97. 97
    Chris says:

    @gf120581:

    Eisenhower is one of these people who comes along less than once in a generation, though. He was the war hero who’d just commanded the army that saved the world from Nazism; it’s kind of hard for any boring old politician in either party to measure up to that. There is no Eisenhower-figure in today’s America, and not much chance of one arising (though some probably wished Petraeus could’ve been him).

    The liberal/moderate wing of the GOP is lucky they had Ike to counteract Taft’s hard-liners; without him, it’s hard to see who could’ve challenged them for leadership of the party.

    ETA: and you’re right about there being no liberal/moderate wing anymore. You could usually always count on having *some* outliers in both parties, no matter how far to the left or right the party overall was, but right now we’ve got one party that’s completely purged any dissent. Heck of a thing.

  98. 98
    amk says:

    @Redshirt: And yet mitt got the boot despite the kenyan muslin usurper being the opposition candidate. 2016 won’t have the kenyan to kick around, so the wingnutz don’t need no steenking moderate rino.

  99. 99
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Suffern ACE: I think the Koch bros would back him, Mark Zuckerberg held his first fundraiser for Christie, those hedge fund guys who pushed through gay marriage in NY state, Adelson only cares about Israel and I think said that Santorum scared him, the Waltons and Mars and Johnsons only care about taxes, Meg Whitman, Bloomberg and the whole Peterson/Fix The Debt crowd, I could see Gates throwing in with him, a whole lot of totebaggers in Jersey, CT, IL, CA, who aren’t on that scale but would happily give him money and votes

  100. 100
    Gravenstone says:

    O/T, but Robin Kelly was just declared the winner of the Dem primary for the IL 2 congressional district (formerly held by Jesse Jackson Jr.). Most notable was that she backed by more than $2M in oppo ads from Mike Bloomberg’s anti-gun PAC. Like him or not, Bloomberg seems willing to put his money where his political beliefs are.

  101. 101
    Redshift says:

    @Redshirt:

    Let’s be honest – IF Christie got the Republican nomination, the wingnuts would all fall in line. They’re not voting Democrat, and they’re voting, so…

    Actually, I’d like to know — did they actually fall in line and vote for Romney? I just did a bit of poking around in Google, and it looks like almost nobody has written much on the web about turnout after the “projected turnout” posts on Election Day or before, and I didn’t turn up anything with a news search, either. Anyone know of any good sources?

    There’s one RCP article that the only groups with lower turnout from 2008 to 2012 was white people, but it doesn’t break it down by party, so it’s hard to tell much from it.

  102. 102
    fuckwit says:

    I’m kind of taking a liking to the Obama way of doing bipartisanship.

    A Republican who is demonstrably reality-based and non-crazy in at least some significant way (Hagel, Christie)? Give him props, treat him right, make a new ally, even bring him into the tent. (Didn’t a lot of us used to be Republicans ourselves until we realized WTF was going on in that party? I know I was.).

    As for the rest of them, be on guard, but treat them as if they were responsible adults, act like they are capable of leveling up, and then let them stew in their own fail when they don’t. Hope they learn their lesson, lather, rinse, repeat. Over time you get more defectors.

    Hearts and minds, as they say.

    It applies to a lot of disciplines, actually. It’s how you win a civil rights battle, or neutralize a terrorist group or a guerrilla insurgency, or raise teenagers, come to think of it.

  103. 103
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @fuckwit: (

    Didn’t a lot of us used to be Republicans ourselves until we realized WTF was going on in that party? I know I was.)

    Not all of us. Just saying.

  104. 104
    Anne Laurie says:

    @efgoldman: Heck, I predicted that Hillary wouldn’t run in 2008, because I could remember Teddy Kennedy running in 1980 and flinching at every sudden noise. But the LHOswald wanna-bes didn’t succeed then, and they haven’t managed to take out President Obama, either, praise FSM and the Secret Service. Hillary certainly doesn’t owe the rest of us any more than she’s already given, but conventional wisdom at the moment is that the nomination is hers if she wants it. And I can certainly see where a combination of personal ambition, lack of other similarly strong Democratic contenders, and the feeling that she may be the best chance of us second-wave feminists seeing a woman in the Oval Office in 2016 might impel her to run again. She knows better than anybody that it won’t be a coronation, and there will be almost as many Democrats as Republicans singing the Anybody-But-Clinton chorus, which leaves an opening for some kind of “Moderate ex-Republican” slipping over to the blue side of the aisle. Could be Christie, or Huntsman, or Kelly Ayotte, or some generic congresscritter / governor that hasn’t yet gotten much publicity. A lot depends on how insane the 2014 races get, and which “exciting, new” faces can emerge without going Full Metal Tehadist.

  105. 105
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Anne Laurie: How is one of the semi-sane Republicans going to manage this process? I just don’t see it happening. And Clinton will have just turned 69 a week or so before Election Day 2016. I rather doubt she is going to go for it. By any chance, did you think Obama was a contender in February of ’05? The field will fill up.

  106. 106
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    I’ll be surprised but not shocked if Hillary ultimately makes the Shermanesque statement, but she’s obviously leaving the door open for herself at this point. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out either way. I can’t imagine those top tier GOP candidates (Jebbie, Daniels and Thune come to mind) who were afraid to take on Obama in a weak economy will be eager to take on Hillary Clinton in a growing one. I’m a little surprised Rubio, given his age, isn’t letting this one pass, but I suspect that even for a politician, he’s got a big ego, and his SOTU response suggests someone who lives full time in the rightwing bubble where Marco Rubio’s superstar status is an article of faith. I’ll cop to a bit of a bubble of my own, but I just don’t see it.

  107. 107
    Bubblegum Tate says:

    I dunno…I’m looking forward to watching Christie shank a whole bunch of teabaggers after they ixnay him in the primary. I think he’d be pretty good at that, or at least entertaining.

  108. 108
    noabsolutes says:

    Yes, yes exactly. Christie’s occasional bouts of reasonableness, which appear to grow like mold along the stress fractures in his wall of overbearing patriarchy, are the source of his sex appeal for the Sensible Centrist set. He is terrifying, and not just because he is an asshole, but because he would really really be worse than Bush. He would be allowed to get away with so much more.

  109. 109
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Anne Laurie:

    But while I don’t think Cole would vote for Christie in a Democratic primary, just off the top of my head I could name a dozen commentors here who will insist that choosing Christie in the primaries is not only correct but essential… and only one of them is McClaren, hoping to heighten-the-contradictions.

    And really?

  110. 110
    Jim Faith says:

    @fuckwit:

    Hearts and minds, as they say

    Or as Charles Colson or LBJ said (the source is unclear):
    When you’ve got ’em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.

  111. 111
    Anne Laurie says:

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    And Clinton will have just turned 69 a week or so before Election Day 2016. I rather doubt she is going to go for it. By any chance, did you think Obama was a contender in February of ’05? The field will fill up.

    I’m not sure she wants to go for it, but I can see plenty of scenarios where she feels she has to (or ought to). If the field fills up, who knows? We could be campaigning for Sen. Warren, or Ashley Judd, or another Kennedy offspring (Chelsea won’t be eligible till 2020, AFAIK). As long as thery’re a member of the “Not A Republican” party!

  112. 112
    Anne Laurie says:

    @Omnes Omnibus: Yup, really. Four legs good, two legs better!

    (That book warped my political outlook forever when I was 8 or 9, but on the other hand, my mom only suggested it because I’d enjoyed Life on the Mississippi so much.)

  113. 113
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Anne Laurie: Chelsea will be 35 in February 2015.

    On the larger topic, I cannot conceive of a future in which Christie is a viable Democrat on a national level.

  114. 114
    Patricia Kayden says:

    I don’t see how Christie is a threat to Democrats at all in 2016. Even if he were to run, if Secretary Clinton runs she’d beat him.

    He’ll be a governor in NJ for years to come.

  115. 115
    Sasha says:

    Or he’ll pull a Crist.

  116. 116
    chris9059 says:

    The difference between Christie and the wingnuts is: the wingnuts are crazy and mean, Christie is just mean.

Comments are closed.