I’ve been reading a lot of death-of-the-GOP articles. Conservative commentators like Ron Fournier and Josh Kraushaar believe that the party may split in two (Fournier brings up the possibility that the Democratic party might split too). Some liberal commentators and ostensibly nonpartisan commentators think it’s more likely that the GOP will enter a longterm minority status, as it did from 1932 to 1968.
Prediction is hard, especially about the future, but the party split seems like the stuff of fantasy. Bull Moose! No Labels! Americans Elect!
I don’t see why the longterm minority status prediction is crazy though, because I don’t think the GOP is interested in governing at the national level. They like to fuck around with stuff in Kansas and Michigan, but they have no interest in dealing with important national problems like longterm health care costs and the effects of climate change.
There’s two kinds of national conservatives: there’s the ones that like to wear tricorner hats and yell “Wolverines” and there’s the “centrist” kind that likes to find Very Serious reasons to concern troll whatever it is that Democrats are doing. Both are advocating doing the opposite of whatever liberals want, only in different ways. Both like to daydream more than anything else — teatards dream of gold, the Revolutionary War, and the apocalypse, Boboites dream of Hayek, Churchill, Reagan, and the hunky conservative pin-up du jour. Why should any of these people be all that concerned about getting enough votes to have actual political control? Mo’ votes, mo’ problems.