Early Morning Open Thread: Election Day

H/t commentor TaMara. Yup, too long to watch over coffee, but now you’ve got something to keep you entertained while you’re waiting in line to vote. For the impatient, Michelle Obama is announced at approximately the 2:10 mark, and President Obama comes on at 11:10 (and starts speaking at approximately 12:30).

Meanwhile, all your early-morning lamestream media pundits will be gumming over OMG DIXVILLE NOTCH, tied 5-5, not bad for a precinct that skews Republican. But let’s hear a little love for the other tiny NH bellwether, Harts Location:

President/Vice President
Barack Obama/Joe Biden (D) 23
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan (R) 9
Gary Johnson/James Gray (L) 1
Virgil Goode/James Clymer (C) 0

So… final prediction time! Nate Silver at 538 calls it 315.2 for President Obama, 92% chance of winning. Latest word from Sam Wang at the Princeton Electoral Consortium:

I make two electoral predictions.

ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 332 EV, Mitt Romney 206 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a chance of being exactly correct.

ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 309 EV, Romney 229 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.34%. This is the automatically-generated snapshot for November 5th 8:00pm. This prediction is almost guaranteed to be off, since 309 EV is not a common combination.

And here is the prediction of our own PsiFighter37:

Obama gets 332 EVs. I think the popular vote will come in between 3-4%, with rounding causing it to be 4%.

Mitt gets 47% of the vote and will forever have that tattooed onto the magic underpants.

Democrats will pick up Senate seats relative to the 53 they have now. Joe Lieberman will wonderfully be but an irrelevant assclown in less than 2 months when Chris Murphy takes his seat.

But we don’t take the House, but I predict Eric Cantor makes his move and sticks a shiv deep into Orange Julius’ back to become Speaker. God help us all.

So… what are your predictions for close of day tonight?

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124 replies
  1. 1
    sb says:

    Obama wins the electoral and the popular vote 51-49. Repukes everywhere will say his clear electoral win does not reflect how close the election really, really was and therefore the country is still upset with him and he needs to do a better job of reaching across the aisle. Well, some repukes will say it was the 47% that cost Romney the election and we really need to do something about the moochers of the world. And Iran.

    Here in California, I can’t sleep because I’m a teacher and if Prop. 30 doesn’t pass, I won’t be teaching for at least a week in the undetermined future because we’ll have more furlough days. I live in a politically dumb state.

  2. 2
    Raven says:

    The Future’s uncertain
    and the end is always near

    Roadhouse Blues

  3. 3
    amk says:

    Obama 347+ EV with + 5 PV.

    Dems 5-10 short of majority in the house.

    Dems retain senate majority 55.

  4. 4
    Redshift says:

    It’s on! The one day of the year I get up this early!

    Gotta go set up outside my polling place, but I’ll put in a prediction of 332, and just to make a properly pundit-y prediction that will look like genius if I’m right, I’ll say we take the House.

  5. 5
    Patricia Kayden says:

    My only prediction is that the Prez is going to be re-elected via the Electoral College. Don’t know how the popular vote is going to go.

    No more election ads on TV/radio. YAY!

  6. 6
    Valdivia says:

    is it normal for Romney to be actively campaigning today?
    that just makes no sense to me.

  7. 7
    Central Planning says:

    I’m off to the gym and then help Obama on the popular vote (NY here).

    How much did Bush2 win by and claim a mandate? I can’t wait to push that one on my right-leaning friends.

    My other one to needle them is that God must be a Democrat. Sandy helped Obama. Sandy was an act of God. Therefore, God helped Obama.

  8. 8
    tjmn says:

    Today I’m taking my 18-year-old son to vote for the very first time. I’m predicting a very good birthday tomorrow for my Grandma, who will be 101. She has voted in 21 Presidental elections. Just don’t get her started on Romney.

  9. 9
    jgaugust says:

    I’ll put in another prediction of 332, although I would not be surprised at all if it is 303 due to the loveliness that is the state of Florida. Popular vote I think will be 2-3% in favor of the President.

    Helping out the President in the popular vote out here in CA and @sb: I’m here to help on Prop 30. As much as this place is crazy, I think California gets that one right tonight.


  10. 10
    Raven says:

    In November 1968 I was in Vietnam but, since I was 18, I couldn’t vote. Get your ass out there if you haven’t already!

  11. 11
    Quincy says:

    @Valdivia: Speculation over at DKos was that Romney was going to Dem strongholds because the logistics surrounding his visit would screw up traffic and discourage people from going to the polls. It was a bit of a cynicism check for me, which hardly happens any more. I decided I find it plausible.

  12. 12
    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism says:

    Hubby tells me the attack ads have reached the level of the State Treasurer in NC. The Dem incumbent is attacking her opponent on his desire to have NC ready to issue its own currency, because it’s only a matter of time before the Fed collapses the money supply.

    I love it. Republicans, too crazy for office at any level.

  13. 13
    Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again) says:

    Under 1 1/2 hours until the polls open here in MI.

    Fired up! Ready to go!

  14. 14
    PeakVT says:

    290D-248R, 50D-49R-1?, 53D-47R, 230R-205D.

  15. 15
    Valdivia says:


    I do find it plausible too. ugh.

  16. 16
    aimai says:

    I’m off to poll watch at 6:30-9, then again 12-4. In between, I’ll vote myself and pick up one old lady to bring her to the polls. I wish I were doing more. I want it to be over. I’m muttering “fired up and ready to go” under my breath. I hate to say how much I honor the President and First Lady for the campaign that they have (both) run and for the way they represent the country. On the subject of the EV’s I’ve got nothing to say. On the subject of how crazy this country is it helps me to admit to myself that I would never, ever, ever, vote for a Republican Candidate under any circumstances. And that is probably true for the vast number of Republican and “independent” lean/republican voters who are voting today or polled today. That being the case there is no case to be made to them at all. There isn’t going to be any kind of conversion moment or epiphany for (most of) them anymore than there will be for me. I’m never going to wake up–or if I do my children have been given permission to smother me–and say “I used to be a Democrat but now CHAPPAQUIDICK!”(that shows you how old I am).

    So: go. GOTV of those souls who can be saved from error and people who need emotional support and handholding to get out and do anything right now. And may the best man and the best party (at the moment) win.


  17. 17
    Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again) says:

    @Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:

    Jebus. The fact that the guy was photographed in that hat should, alone, rule him out as fit for office.

  18. 18
    Applejinx says:

    Go get people to the polls in all the places, like Ohio, where we know the Republicans will be trying to throw away their votes. The counterargument to ‘futility to vote when it will be miscounted’ is NUMBERS, you have to make the margin so huge that it can’t be cheated.

    Same thing for all the red states- I just told a guy about this in no uncertain terms. Flip side of the same argument. If your state is safely ‘red’ then you are MORE likely to have your Dem vote counted nationally, and not thrown away. They’ll be concentrating their 10%-20% cheating margin in swing states so if your state is not a swing state, your vote becomes more important for running up the popular vote margin.

    Let’s DO this!

  19. 19
    weaselone says:

    Will do my best to vote when the polls open at 7:00 AM. If there is already a long line, I may wait until after work and cast my vote this evening.

    My prediction is 332 EV for Obama vs. 206 EV for Mitt. I suspect Obama will also take the popular vote by about 2%. Democrats will retain the Senate with 53 or 54 seats. Republicans will hold the house, although the Democrats will pick up a few seats.

  20. 20
    Splitting Image says:

    David Brooks will say that since Obama’s margin of victory was less than in 2008, Obama lacks a clear mandate and should pass the entire Republican platform as a way of reaching across the aisle.

    George F. Will will say that Obama’s victory was a mean way to puncture Mitt Romney’s lifelong belief that he was destined to attain the office. He will suggest that Obama pass the entire Republican platform as a way of extending an olive branch.

    Peggy Noonan will say that Obama’s body language during the debates was a clear attempt to usurp Romney’s natural position as the alpha male in the room, and was therefore a veiled attempt to show support for Romney’s way of thinking. He should therefore stop hiding his true feelings and pass the entire Republican platform while wearing a flight suit.

  21. 21
    tjmn says:

    Polls now open in VA.

  22. 22
    Raven says:

    Is it important to you who is “ON SET” on Mornin Joe?

  23. 23
    amk says:

    @Splitting Image:

    Obama – “Fuck’em. I didn’t give a shite about them in my 1st term, why would I do it in my 2nd?”.

  24. 24
    Splitting Image says:

    Oh, and regarding the numbers thingy, I’ll say 303-235 for the electoral votes as a conservative guess, but it could go all the way up to 358-180 if any of Florida, North Carolina, and either of Indiana or Arizona go blue.

    The Democrats may pick up one or two seats in the Senate, hopefully including Missouri and Indiana with a couple of very large gender gaps in those two states.

    They might have an outside shot at taking the House, but it will require a lot of down-to-the-wire districts going their way. They will likely fall short by 10 seats or so. Still, fingers crossed.

  25. 25
    Patricia Kayden says:

    @tjmn: Happy B’day to your Grandma! You have good genes.

    Will leave work early to vote today in MD. And will be up all night waiting and watching. Should be fun.

  26. 26
    Narcissus says:

    Morning Joe: “President is ahead, just like Jimmy Carter in 1980”.

  27. 27
    PsiFighter37 says:

    Waiting in line at my spot in Manhattan. More people here at this time than in 2008…interesting…

  28. 28
    amk says:

    @PsiFighter37: Go, get’em man. I want my numbers posted above. :)

  29. 29
    tjmn says:

    @Patricia Kayden: Thank you. She’s a hoot. She voted for FDR. Vulture/Voucher has both her and my almost 70-year-old Mom scared about SS. Presidental candidates should not go around scaring old women.

  30. 30
    Schlemizel says:

    I was thinking of using the trick some pundits taught me: make several different predictions separately then later, as we celebrate the big win tonight, link back to the one closest to the actual results. But I’m not that big a dick.

    I don’t think Ohio is going to matter, which is a very good thing since its has been set up to be nothing but pain if it did. The Prez wins without it or pads his lead with it. Sanity picks up 2 Senate seats and we come within 5 of flipping the House.

    I further predict that on Wednesday there will be an outpouring of opinion from our betters in the world of punditry that this election proves that voters want more bipartisanship and compromise and that it is incumbent on the Dems to reach out and make deals with the -devil- GOP to solve our problems; Obama simply HAS to move to the right and be more accommodating.

  31. 31
    Lojasmo says:

    My guess

    O 310
    R 228

    O gets PA, OH, VA, CO, NV, NM, IA.

    R gets FL, NC. NH,

    The rest are in the bag, I think. I may have forgot one, but the totals are my prediction. Glad both Silver and Wang are more optimistic.

  32. 32
    arguingwithsignposts says:

    I predict that there will be an enormous outpouring of What It All Means on Wednesday that won’t mean jack shit. And tomorrow, there will be a lot of unemployed campaign staff with some ‘splainin to do.

  33. 33
    madmommy says:

    The kids are off school for election day, so I am taking the day off as well. Heading off to vote as soon as the polls open at 7. My 6th grader said they spent nearly every class yesterday talking about the election, the EC and other voting issues. He doesn’t understand why some want to make it harder to vote when it is so important to vote. Had a hard time explaining it to him without resorting to salty language. It was encouraging that here in deep red Louisiana many of his teachers laid out the differences between R and D in quite stark terms. His final take-away was “why would anyone who is not mega rich vote Republican? It makes no sense to me!” Me neither, son.

  34. 34
    kay says:

    I’m still pulling for FL.

    Anyone who waits in line for 9 hours deserves to win.

    Plus, it would make all the tv pundits wrong, which is a win all by itself.

  35. 35
    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q) says:

    @Raven: Not at all, but since you watch it so that I don’t have to, please do tell.

    @kay: So am I, as the sight of pundit heads exploding would be heartening. I’m likewise pulling for our OH vote to be finalized tonight.

  36. 36
    amk says:

    @kay: Yup, I have been from the very beginning. The OFA ground game in FL has been awesome.

  37. 37
    JPL says:

    @Lojasmo: I’m at 290. I think the President will lose VA but win NH.

    If he wins VA, the electoral collage would be 303.

  38. 38
    Raven says:

    @a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): Oh I just hate the way Mika oooozzeeeeezz, “ON SET”. I suppose it’s really important. Rather did say he felt in his gut that Romney was going to have a good day so there is that. (He is ON SET).

  39. 39
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    I have stated before: 300+ EV, 52-48% PV, +2 in the Senate, to within five in the House.

  40. 40
    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q) says:

    We have international attention at our local BoE – TV crews from Canada, Germany, Brazil, and the BBC, as Hamilton County has been identified as some kind of OH bellwether. Great – the county with a judicial election that lasted 2 years. However, the Busken Cookie Poll shows the President ahead 14,317 to 12,609 and he’s lead by a similar margin from the beginning. But will the BBC report on that?

  41. 41
    PsiFighter37 says:

    Now I feel a lot of pressure for my predictions to pan out since they got yanked out of the comments. Thanks for making my day more stressful! :P

    I can’t GOTV since I’ll be at work, but to the rest of you that can – bring it home. Knock on every last door, even if you have to end up jogging or running around the block. Pick up the phone and keep dialing. Get every last supporter and leaner out to the voting booth. As they’ve said all along – if our side comes to vote, we will win.

    So let’s fucking do this, and let’s win.

  42. 42
    arguingwithsignposts says:

    @Raven: What is this “on set” thing?

  43. 43
    NotMax says:


    That FOX ‘news’ will take about 5 seconds to announce Obama the winner, then return to breathless all-Benghazi ‘reporting.’

    Electoral count:

    Obama/Biden 298
    Ronmney/Ryan 240


    D/caucus with D: 52
    R: 48


    D: 207
    R: 228

  44. 44
    amk says:

    @a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): BBC is still peddling tight as a tiny mouse’s ass race.

  45. 45
  46. 46
    Scott S. says:

    I can’t make predictions about stuff like that. I’m ridiculously innumerate. The best I can do is say that I think Obama will take the popular vote and the Electoral College by comfortable margins.

    I have decided that it’s time we had a single national standard for voting. It’s stupid that voters should have to deal with the crap their being forced to in Florida and Ohio. It’s stupid that states should be able to pass voter ID laws that are designed to keep whole classes of people from voting.

    Don’t know how that gets passed in a climate like this. Don’t know how to keep the Rethugs from then using those laws once they get back into power to restrict national voting hours from just 2-3 a.m. or something like that… :/

  47. 47
    Raven says:

    @arguingwithsignposts: I’m sorry, there is stuff that bothers me that is probably pretty dumb. Mika is always bleating about this or that guest being “on set”. I realize the cure is to not watch rather than burdening the BJ community with my obsessions.

  48. 48
    Omnes Omnibus says:


    I realize the cure is to not watch rather than burdening the BJ community with my obsessions.

    Why should you be different than anyone else here? Are you special?

  49. 49
    arguingwithsignposts says:

    @Raven: gotcha. was talking with someone on a car ride the other day, and he was going on about how “balanced” Morning Ho was. It was all I could do to keep from swerving off the road.

  50. 50
    russell says:

    if dixville tied, i feel pretty confident in saying obama’s got it in the bag. nothing but rock-ribbed cranky yankees up there. they think the union leader is a commie rag.

    and god bless harts location and their solitary gary johnson vote. every town needs a true believer.

  51. 51
    AnonPhenom says:

    I done the deed 15 minutes ago.
    Yeah, it’s not like a roll in the hay with Ohio – or even a little slap and tickle in PA. But a plain vanilla NYC party line vote still feels pretty good (Working Families Party, that is)

  52. 52
    NotMax says:

    @ arguingwithsignposts

    Rules to live by, number 101: When approaching a hitchhiker who is wearing a tinfoil hat, keep on driving.

  53. 53
    Paul says:


    I haven’t watched Morning Joe for years. It is no different than FoxNews with its right-wing garbage. And it is truly insulting to my intelligence to have to listen to Mika.

  54. 54
    Redneck Jebus says:

    Prediction: Scarborough is swallowed into hell by a spreadsheet and America rejoices.

  55. 55
    BillinGlendaleCA says:

    Silly Balloon Juicers, the numbers don’t matter. I’ve been watching Morning Ho and Scar, Barnicle and ‘Dick’ Halprin tell me only emotion matters. Guess I missed that when I took Government in high school.

  56. 56
    JGabriel says:

    Well, I don’t see the point of making the same predictions as everyone else, and if yer gonna predict, might as well be remembered for going big, so my prognosticatin’ says:

    Obama: 348 EV
    Senate: 54-55 seats
    House: Democratic control

    (That’s what I’m hopin’ for, anyways.)


  57. 57
    geg6 says:


    I mostly agree, but I think NH goes Obama.

  58. 58
    Currants says:

    Line to vote is out the door and around the corner. Unusual for this hour. Not that MA counts…except in the senate.

  59. 59
    amk says:

    @JGabriel: Heh, I already did that. (Except for the house). Will you be on my team ?

  60. 60
    geg6 says:


    Well the Senate is a pretty big damn deal. I want Elizabeth Warren to win just as much as I want Obama/Biden to win. I love her and wish she could be my senator.

  61. 61
    Jeffro says:

    Obama with 294 EVs and 51% of the PV
    Called it back in August!

  62. 62
    Alex S. says:

    A few months ago, I predicted a nine point victory for Obama…oh well… then the first debate happened and Obama went from +5 / +6 to +2. He has recovered somewhat and I continue to be amazed at early voting numbers. But I guess it won’t be better than, let’s say, 51.5% Obama vs. 47.5% Romney, that is, a four-point victory. I wonder how good the turnout operation is and how many coattails there are. Are latinos underpolled? Is young voter enthusiasm similar to 2008? If the answer is yes, I could see the Dems gaining a seat in the Senate. But I’ll be conservative and predict no changes at all, 53-47 D. The House… well…The Dems gain seats, but not enough. It’ll be like 225R-209D.
    I forgot the Electoral College. Well, with a national margin of four percent, North Carolina should end up in Obama’s column. That’s 332EV I think.

  63. 63
    Elizabelle says:

    I think we will take Virginia. We’re becoming the purple Old Dominion.

    On the doors last night: young man who hadn’t been following the election much. Smart as a whip. Sent him to several blogs to scan and look at their links, including Balloon Juice, Ta Nehisi Coates, James Fallows, Kevin Drum, and Jon Chait. He liked that some of the BJ might be NSFW. (Although he works at a brewpub.)

    And I LOVE canvassing homes of Arab-Americans and Indian-Americans, and anything-Americans.

    They’re going to save American-Americans’ asses.

  64. 64
    arguingwithsignposts says:

    I would appreciate it if there were some way to make this a national campaign instead of pandering to a few swing states. Not sure how that could happen, exactly. But it would be nice.

  65. 65
    Redneck Jebus says:

    Remember: Al Gore was up by 20 in the final polls. Morning Joe would like for you to know this before crunching your silly numbers.

  66. 66
    JGabriel says:


    Heh, I already did that. (Except for the house). Will you be on my team ?

    And you also missed the Nebraska CD-2 EV. That’s said, I would be glad to join yer team — provided ya amend yer prediction to a Democratic House win!


  67. 67
    Lurking Canadian says:

    I predict that the pundits will unanimously agree that the election result shows Americans mostly care about reducing the deficit by cutting Mitt Romney’s taxes, no matter who wins or by how much.

    I further predict that some pundit will point out that, since Obama didn’t win the white, male, racist vote, he doesn’t have a “real” mandate.

    My fingers are crossed that there are no shenanigans, or at least no shenanigans that can’t be overcome.

    I have my fingers crossed all

  68. 68
    Scratch says:

    I was the 8th in line at my precinct. Instead of filling in the straight ticket blob, I went one by one to cast a vote for the Democrat over the Republican.

    After work, I plan to stop and buy a good whiskey to celebrate Obama’s victory over Romney.

  69. 69
    JGabriel says:

    @Redneck Jebus:

    Remember: Al Gore was up by 20 in the final polls.

    Yeah, he won the election in 2000, didn’t he? Until a couple of old white guys who owed their jobs to W’s dad interfered.


  70. 70
    amk says:

    Oh boy, the stupid troll is here.

  71. 71
    amk says:


    provided ya amend yer prediction to a Democratic House win!

    Why do you think I wanted you in my team in the first place ?

  72. 72
    Joel says:

    I couldn’t stay asleep.

    Kinda like being a kid on Christmas morning, albeit one with bipolar parents who have an outside shot of leaving a giant turd in your stocking.

  73. 73
    Quincy says:

    @kay: I want the Prez to have 303 tonight with Fla in recount. Just so Obama can have one more victory over Romney 2 weeks from now.

  74. 74
    Elizabelle says:

    Mormon women: why we support President Obama.

    Also: Eric Cantor got a feisty challenger in his House District this year. Wayne Powell. Cantor’s the overwhelming favorite, but I hope Powell puts up some good numbers.

    A lot of Cantor’s district is rural, red landowners. Lots of GOP signs, but I saw more Democratic-supporting signs this year in the exurbs and rural areas than ever in memory.

  75. 75
    Elizabelle says:


    And Ohio a decisive victory.

  76. 76
    Comrade Scrutinizer says:

    Nothing decided by midnight. Brooks Brother riots in Ohio, Fla, and Va.

  77. 77
    kay says:

    Voter body language looks very favorable for Romney, so please alert Chuck Todd and George Will. The Democrats look a little ragged this morning. They’re not “morning people”.

  78. 78
    Comrade Scrutinizer says:

    @kay: In all my 50-some years, nothing good ever happened to me before noon.

  79. 79
    kay says:

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    I AM actually a morning person, but it really is funny who’s clutching coffee and who is not.

    Maybe Republicans can’t have coffee anymore, per The Rombot Rules.

  80. 80
    geg6 says:

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    Damn, that’s awful for you. For myself, that’s the time of day I most enjoy getting lucky, if you know what I mean and I think you do. ;-)

  81. 81
    Elizabelle says:

    Strident, maybe.

    But is it inaccurate? NYTimes writer won’t go there.

    “You have to come up with a lie,” [Lawrence O’Donnell says about Romney in an MSNBC ad], when your campaign is based on empty rhetoric.
    In her ad, Rachel Maddow breathlessly decodes the logic behind the push to overhaul state voting laws. “The idea is to shrink the electorate,” she says, “so a smaller number of people get to decide what happens to all of us.”
    Such stridency has put NBC News journalists who cover Republicans in awkward and compromised positions, several people who work for the network said. To distance themselves from their sister channel, they have started taking steps to reassure Republican sources, like pointing out that they are reporting for NBC programs like “Today” and “Nightly News” — not for MSNBC.

    Today and the NBC Nightly News. Don’t make me laugh.

  82. 82
    jibeaux says:

    @Central Planning: Also too, God thinks it’s time for a Democrat in Dick Lugar’s seat.

  83. 83
    Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac says:

    I predict Jim Matheson, Utah’s long time single democratic congressional seatholder, will finally lose to Mia Love, because of Mitt Romney’s long ass coattails in utah. (Her ads literally said over and over again “a vote for Mia love is a vote for Mitt”.

    Nice knowing ya Jim, this is what you get for voting against the ACA.

  84. 84
    Schlemizel says:

    @Redneck Jebus:

    Did he honestly say that?!? I’d have spit my coffee all over him if I had been there. That is the biggest pile of shit he has dumped since his last one. I don’t recall Gore being up by more than 2 ever.

    He won by about that too everywhere except where it mattered – the USSC.

  85. 85
    Suffern ACE says:

    I found out yesterday that someone I worked with professionally is running for Congress in a seat near me. I wish I had known, since I would have sold my place and moved to his district just to vote against him.

  86. 86
    Currants says:

    @geg6: yes! And I hope she’s mine too. There were all manner of children there too, which was wonderful to see.

  87. 87
    sparrow says:

    Good morning from a beautiful crispy fall day in Baltimore! I just voted up here in Mt Washington, took about 30 minutes but it went quickly ( brought knitting ). Lots of people with their kids… and I found out my new neighborhood is really white. I’m interested in how the micro demographics of this area bear out in the election, I haven’t seen any Romney signs anywhere, but it’s good to know what kind of neighbors you have. Oh yeah, so happy to vote for gay marriage!

  88. 88
    Patricia Kayden says:

    @Lurking Canadian: There’s already an article in Politico claiming that because the Pres won’t win the White racist male vote, he won’t have a mandate. Was written by Allen and Vanderhei yesterday.

  89. 89
    Schlemizel says:


    We love to start the day out with a bang! Its a tradition for the missus & me although, after 37 years its not every morning any more

  90. 90
    jibeaux says:

    @tjmn: Whatever your grandma has to say about this for her birthday, I want it as my facebook status of the day.

  91. 91
    Comrade Scrutinizer says:

    @Elizabelle: Shorter Peters: Both Sides Do It!

  92. 92
    jibeaux says:

    @madmommy: My sixth grader voted for Candidate X or Candidate Y, which listed their official positions on various issues. It went 26 to 1 for Candidate X, the way you’d expect if you looked at the issues laid out on paper.

  93. 93
    Comrade Scrutinizer says:

    @jibeaux: Skipping melanin content obviously skews the polls.

  94. 94
    shortstop says:

    @kay: That made me blow coffee sniggering.

  95. 95
    NotMax says:

    On the plus side, so far as I am aware, in places with concealed carry allowance, polling places are not included among permitted areas.

  96. 96
    Redneck Jeebus says:


    Well, I was exaggerating for effect, but he prattled on about Carter leading Reagan.

  97. 97
    Elizabelle says:

    Romney’s final “raucous” rally in Fairfax VA — Romney is surging, surging we tell you! — drew less people than PBO’s “Romnesia” rollout a few weeks earlier.

    First Read reports 8,000 at Romney’s sendoff (which GOP campaign as being spun as “moved indoors to accommodate larger crowd”.)

    Obama drew 9,000. At a minimum. Outdoors.


    Somebody on Morning Joe just said he knew enthusiasm for Romney was surging “although I have no evidence.” He said that.

  98. 98
    Schlemizel says:

    @Redneck Jeebus:

    Got ya – sorry my snark meter didn’t pick that up. Its indicative of how little I think of him that I could imagine hearing him say that.

    He’s wrong about Carter too of course.

  99. 99
    Schlemizel says:


    OH NO! The Nice Polite Republicans put the number at 10,000 this morning. Damn liberal media. They then claimed he has been generating a lot of excitement recently.

    Kicking them all in the crotch repeatedly is too good for them.

  100. 100
    TS says:

    President Obama with 347EVs – Romney to get 47% of the vote

  101. 101
    Keith G says:

    Polls just open in Houston. I am heading out for the one mile walk to my precinct. Hopefully by 2020, Democrats in Texas will be able to decide who will get our electoral votes.

    It has been three weeks since my brother, a physician in rural Ohio asserted:

    You will never convince me of Obama’s infallibility and I will never convince you otherwise. Interestingly it is partly genetic. Good luck in the election and may God bless and PROTECT America. I’m done.

    That is our last communication to date.

    What still causes me to shake my head with a dark chuckle is that I have never communicated to him a notion of Obama’s infallibility. This type of conservatism baffles me, but we will never convince them. All we can do is out-vote them.

  102. 102
    Elizabelle says:


    I am just waiting for us to drink their milkshake.

    Heading out for GOTV. Just talked to a lovely German-born woman who is knocking doors for us today. This will be her first presidential election since becoming a US citizen.

    She is bringing her young sons in the car to help. They’re so excited. We’ll be sure they get stickers and swag and snacks when they pop by the canvassing hub.

    Virginia weather is beautiful today in Northern Virginia.

  103. 103
    tjmn says:

    @jibeaux: Deal. I’ll ask her tomorrow when I call. I’ll look for a post from you.

  104. 104
    Svensker says:

    I’m as nervous as a cat on stilts.

    A Canadian paper had Paul Wolfowitz being interviewed about the state of the US race. WTF?! I thought he was dead.

    We all voted and I talked my two unicorn clutchers into voting for O because Romney, bitchez.

    God, I want this day to be over.

  105. 105
    Comrade Scrutinizer says:

    @Keith G: I have much the same problem with my brother. It’s interesting that yours attributes it to genetics. Really? Does that mean that since I am the only one in my family voting for Obama that I was adopted or something?

  106. 106
    4tehlulz says:

    Voting place was busy in my little corner of MA this morning. Hopeful this is a good sign for Warren.

  107. 107
    Ken says:

    Not very good at predictions (you should see my football cards), but I think either Obama wins narrow Electoral/Popular vote or populace is so pissed off at republicans for their voter disfranchisement efforts that Obama wins big.

    My wife & I showed up at polling place at 7:15 this morning, rolled right through with no issues/voter challenges. But then, we’re both of northern European bloodlines and vote in a pretty caucasian district; so they had no reason to be suspicious of us..

  108. 108
    moda31 says:

    Voted with my mom this morning. We’re newly minted American citizens voting for the first time in our lives, and we proudly voted to re-elect the President. Talked to my sister in Boston earlier, another first timer, who is all set to do the same, and throw in one for Elizabeth Warren too.
    Now it’s off to a nerve wracking day at work, unfortunately I work with plenty of wingnuts & shamefully uninformed voters; but thankfully outside of work this is a very blue town in a permanently blue state. Before I leave, I’m setting my mom up to make some GOTV calls from home. I’ve got the day off tomorrow, so I’m all set to stick it out all night with a nice bottle of wine, hopefully we’ll be celebrating rather than drowning our sorrows. I know it looks good, but I can’t help but be a tad nervous. Happy Election Day!

  109. 109
    Kirbster says:

    I was in line to vote at 7 am on a beautiful but chilly autumn day. Our little Massachusetts town runs like a well-oiled machine when it comes to elections. Even with a side trip to the post office, I was home before 7:30, and I, unlike some Ohio voters, am confident that my vote will count.

    I wish I was as optimistic about the outcome of this election as most of you seem to be. I’m on a low key emotional roller-coaster today that cycles between cautious hope and darkest despair. I don’t doubt that President Obama would easily win an honest and fair election. But that’s not what have in this country.

  110. 110
    Robin G. says:

    I watched that and *bawled*.

  111. 111
    aimai says:

    @Keith G:

    I think the project their own need to hero worship (bush, reagan) onto the democrats and mistake sincere, earned, respect (which we do have for Obama because of his actions) for blind hero worship. Whatever you say, that’s what they hear.


  112. 112
    aimai says:


    I put this on the wrong thread:

    250 people by 8:30 at my little MA poll. I was poll watching that’s how I know. 35 minutes in line for people. Its slowing down now and I’m on my break. I pick up one voter at 10:00, she and I will probably vote together and then I’ll take her home and come back and poll watch again. Its still going to be neck and neck for Warren. I talked to a middle schooler from Winchester (very romney/brown) and she said that when the kids voted Obama took basically all the presidential votes but Brown won the senate race among the middle schoolers. That is despite the fact that their parents are mainly straight ticket romney/brown. That scares me because I understand the kids vote shows something something something. What it shows me is that many adults are going to ticket split and vote Obama/brown. But here in Cambridge we are committed to trying to get 40,000 warren voters to the polls. So I’m poll watching and checking our lists.


  113. 113
    John PM says:

    I predict that I will open my bottle of Knob Creek and raise a toast to President Obama after John Stewart calls the election for Obama.

  114. 114
    Captain C says:

    Presidential: Obama 51-47-2 (Gary Johnson finishes 3rd)
    EV: Obama 347-190 (Obama takes North Carolina, 1 elector somewhere votes for either Ryan or maybe even Paul)
    Senate: 55D(including I)-45R
    House: within 220-215 either way (more likely R, but chance of D)
    Wingnut heads exploding: not nearly enough

  115. 115
    JGabriel says:


    is it normal for Romney to be actively campaigning today?

    It’s somewhat normal to campaign on election day, but Romney is doing it in Cleveland, which is OH’s Democratic stronghold, in order to snarl up traffic and inconvenience Dem voters.

    It’s a dick move.


  116. 116
    Captain C says:

    Also, if there are significant enough R losses in the House (even if they narrowly retain control), Cantor may well try for the Speakership. Unfortunately, there are probably not enough moderate Rs, and Boehner is too committed to The Cause (or at least to said Cause’s financial backers) for him (Boehner) to try to cut a deal with the Dems. Either way, invest in popcorn futures.

  117. 117
    1badbaba3 says:

    @JGabriel: And it will fail like the overwhelming majority of what they do. They can’t help it, they’re just not very good. Haven’t been for a while now. Perhaps one day a majority of our side will both realize AND believe it.

    We’ll be waiting for you all there.

  118. 118
    Keith G says:

    @moda31:Thank you for making me smile with tears

  119. 119
    Joey Maloney says:

    I will be very, very drunk. One way or the other.

  120. 120
    Ben Cisco says:

    Got this from my niece, who lives in the Western Piedmont region of NC (the odious Patrick McHenry’s district): http://myreadyroom.files.wordp......jpg?w=549


  121. 121
    hedgehog the occasional commenter says:

    @Scott S.:

    THIS on the varying election laws. And why the hell isn’t Election Day a national holiday?

    Both the spousal unit and I have voted by mail. A friend did not know where her polling place was so I sent her the OFA link. She was very pleased, and she will vote for Team Blue.

  122. 122
    La Caterina says:

    Johannes and I are on line at our polling place in Brooklyn. Looks to be about an hour wait for me, but much less for him because the line is split by first letter of last name. Not too many M-Z peeps in our election district.

    I should have changed my name when we got married.

  123. 123
    Gus says:

    @Kirbster: I’m with you. I get the feeling that Romney’s going to shock the world, with or without election shennanigans from, among others, Ohio’s secretary of state.

  124. 124
    gocart mozart says:

    Long lines at my polling place (mostly democratic) ran into Chris Murphy.

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