With an Obama 2nd term now extremely likely, it’s time to get this out of the way.

Nate Silver over at 538 has probability of re-elect at 92.2%.  Sam Wang has probability of re-elect at 98.2% by random distribution and 99.8% by Bayesian Prediction.

If you haven’t already done so, make certain that you vote tomorrow.  Run the score up on the bastards.  Make sure you know your fucking polling place.

And now, with apologies to Pastor Dan, it’s time to ask “Is it too early to start speculating on all the ways Obama is going to sell out progressives in his second term?”

Oh, and Open Thread, also too.

76 replies
  1. 1
    MikeJ says:

    I have it on good authority that Obama will wipe out the last surviving unicorn herd. With drooooones.

  2. 2
    JustAnotherBob says:

    I predict Obama will sell out progressives by accomplishing a lot of stuff.

    Nothing bothers those progressives more than progress….

  3. 3
    Sad But True says:

    do you think it matters whether we run up the score tomorrow?

    that is, assuming his victory is (relatively) decisive, we keep the senate and make up ground but continue in the minority in the house?

    if he wins by 6 points and ohio is just an afterthought, does he govern any differently than if he wins by just one state?

    i’d like to think he does, but i have a hard time convincing myself.

  4. 4
    jharp says:

    Already voted. 2 out of 4 of my family has. 2 more tomorrow.

    And Richard Mourdock is also getting his ass handed to him tomorrow.

  5. 5
    Gin & Tonic says:

    Voted two weeks ago, as I’m spending most of tomorrow on airplanes. By the time I get to a teevee I hope it’s mostly over.

  6. 6
    lamh35 says:

    Sitting here watching FLOTUS and POTUS at the last rally of his political career. The final rally is in the place where it started…Iowa.

    I think it can definitely be said that without Iowa there would be no 44th President Barack Hussein Obama.

    I know that his Iowa win is what woke up the Black voters to the possibility that Barack…our Barack could actually do this thing and almost instantly, Black realized the Obama was our guy and we never looked back.

  7. 7
    Robin G. says:

    @Sad But True: Nah, no difference, but it’ll make the wingnuts cry.

  8. 8
    gwangung says:

    do you think it matters whether we run up the score tomorrow?

    Dunno.

    But it will sure as hell make ME feel better.

  9. 9

    I’m going to celebrate Obama’s victory by mourning Jon Tester’s defeat.

  10. 10
    The Dangerman says:

    Make sure you know your fucking polling place.

    And, with apologies to a poster over at GOS, stay the fuck in line.

    The worse their loss, the longer they get to wander in the political weeds and the bigger the cleave between the true moderates and the true mouthbreathers.

  11. 11
    gwangung says:

    Nah, no difference, but it’ll make the wingnuts cry.

    GOOD ENOUGH FOR ME.

  12. 12
    Thymezone says:

    Yes, bring it. Bring the reelection victory. And warning to all Republican buttheads. It is No.More.Mister.Nice.Thymezone.

    It is fuck you very much, all the time, every day, fuck you and everything you stand for you you lying stupid motherfuckers. Four years of your shit is enough. If we win tomorrow, I am taking off the gloves with you fuckstains. You had better wear your helmets.

  13. 13
    Zam says:

    @Sad But True: The margin of victory will have an effect on how long he gets from the media to do something before they give into the inevitable push for republicans in the midterms. Basically it means does he get 10 days or 20 days to solve all the worlds problems.

  14. 14
    MTiffany says:

    Make sure you know your fucking polling place.

    Too bad that link gives me an incorrect polling place.

  15. 15
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    My fucking polling place is a Hampton Fucking Inn and Suites, which I find rather strange. My precinct is mostly a big chunk of student apartments south of Columbia, so you’d think they could find some place on campus for students to vote (the ones who live closer to campus probably are), and I’ve only ever voted in libraries and churches before, not a private hotel. Shenanigans! I’m in a blue county in a red state, so my vote doesn’t have as much weight as some of yours, but you couldn’t fucking stop me from voting tomorrow if you cut off my legs at the knee. I’d call a cab and drag myself the rest of the way.

  16. 16
    owlbear1 says:

    I figure most of his second term will be taken up by a steady whine of impeachment hearings.

    Cowardly bigots are really sore losers.

  17. 17
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @Cris (without an H):

    He’s actually ahead right now in the average, but not by much.

  18. 18
    lamh35 says:

    CNN of course cut Obama to show Romney in New Hampshire…whatever

  19. 19
    Geoduck says:

    Dropped off my ballot days ago. (Some parts of the country have caught up with the twenty-first century re voting.)

    As I said in a previous thread, I really hope Obama has learned that he can’t go chasing after the Compromise Pony with the wolverines of the GOP House. Will be grimly interesting to see if they really do go the impeachment route; one potential silver lining, if they set off a big enough derpstorm, maybe the Dems can wrest control in 2014 and get some actual work done in his last two years.

  20. 20
    RocketDoctor says:

    With a Republican House nothing is going to change. The only things the President will be able to get done will be through executive actions.

    When will America wake up and realize how harmful these Tea Party Republicans are to our democracy?

  21. 21
    Keith says:

    And let’s not forget – 3 states are voting to legalize recreational cannabis use, and it looks to be set to pass in at least one of the states.

  22. 22
    Steeplejack says:

    Nate Silver scheduled on Colbert tonight.

  23. 23
    RocketDoctor says:

    @Keith: Colorado?

  24. 24
    MikeJ says:

    @Geoduck:

    Dropped off my ballot days ago. (Some parts of the country have caught up with the twenty-first century re voting.)

    Didja see on the Slog that the GOP is going door to door be helpful and offering to take your ballot in for you? I wonder how many people will trust them to do it.

  25. 25
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @MikeJ:

    If it was me I’d call the cops. Home invasion.

  26. 26
    PhoenixRising says:

    My final door knock in Ron Barber’s new district (Gabi Giffords’ joint, Pima County) on Saturday featured a registered Democrat who is too pure to vote for Ron. Or Obama. Because she wants the unicorns. (Marriage equality, single payer, etc were the names of her pretty sparkly ponies.)

    I did not literally punch her in the gut, but the effect of “Well, I’m the married lesbian with cancer whose interests you’re looking out for by opting to effectively spoil your ballot. And FYI, I don’t appreciate the self-expression that much, at the expense of showing the Tea Party crackpots that they’re a minority” was as if I had.

    Why do we run up the score? Because every time you vote for a Democrat, a Tea Party loon falls off his government health care provided scooter and skins his knee.

  27. 27
    geg6 says:

    I have a great day scheduled for tomorrow. I’m off and John doesn’t have to be at work until the afternoon. So we’re sleeping in, getting up and going to Starbucks for some coffee and pastry and to read the papers and then voting together on our way home. Then I’m off to Aliquippa to the OFA office there to start my 12-4 shift of giving rides to the polls and making phone calls when I’m not driving. Then home to feed the dog and settle in to watch MSNBC on the teevee and BJ on the ‘puter.

    I have a bottle of champagne cooling in the wine cooler. I sure hope I get to drink it tomorrow night.

  28. 28
    trollhattan says:

    @Sad But True:

    I would say yeah, it could make a difference. If Republicans get drubbed there’s a slim chance they’ll decide to begin the long journey back to being a legitimate political party again. If it’s close or, worse, a tight race, then it’s Katy bar the door because the wingnuts will still be in charge and demand, demand I say, that the party move further right.

    The country works better with two viable parties. But it’s been a good while since that existed.

  29. 29
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @geg6:

    In victory you deserve champagne, in defeat you need it.

  30. 30
    Xecky Gilchrist says:

    @owlbear1: Cowardly bigots are really sore losers.

    True true. The only thing they’re worse about is when they win.

  31. 31
    MikeJ says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    If it was me I’d call the cops. Home invasion.

    Stand your ground.

  32. 32
    Geoduck says:

    @MikeJ:

    Didja see on the Slog that the GOP is going door to door be helpful and offering to take your ballot in for you? I wonder how many people will trust them to do it.

    Yeah, evidently only in King County. Which makes sense, they might accidentally destroy a Republican ballot anywhere else.

  33. 33
    lamh35 says:

    Romney speech…Obama, Obama, Obama…bad, bad, bad.

    Obama speech…aspirational, inspirational and only brief reference to Romney.

    BTW, Obama telling the “Fired Up!!! Ready to Go!!!” story again. It never gets old.

  34. 34
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @MikeJ:

    I’m far too gentle a soul to wave a gun around, but I consider myself a very good yeller. Maybe a dose of the Johnson Treatment would be just what the doctor ordered.

  35. 35
    Bill in Section 147 says:

    @Robin G.: This is becoming a good enough reason for me lately. I am nourished by their tears.

  36. 36
    TaMara (BHF) says:

    When this race is called at 9pm tomorrow (FSM willing) I want every fucking pundit and newscaster on NBC to show the video of them gloating about how we’d all be here till dawn because this race is so fucking close.

    Thursday’s recipe exchange may be Creamed Pundits on Toast.

  37. 37
    MikeJ says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    Maybe a dose of the Johnson Treatment would be just what the doctor ordered.

    That doesn’t sound like something I’d want to do to a Republican.

  38. 38
    Soonergrunt says:

    @MTiffany: Mine’s correct, right down to the name: “Heartland Fucking Freewill Baptist Church”

  39. 39
    TaMara (BHF) says:

    @lamh35: Have I ever mentioned over the years how much I’ve always enjoyed your comments? Any thread you’re in I enjoy.

  40. 40
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @TaMara (BHF):

    Humble pie, baked crow on toast, and a snifter of bitter tears.

  41. 41
    The prophet Nostradumbass says:

    @Soonergrunt: for mine, it gets the address right, but calls it “SOME FUCKING BUILDING”.

  42. 42
    Soonergrunt says:

    @The prophet Nostradumbass: “Where do you vote at?”
    “Eh, some fucking building over on 4th and Elm.”

  43. 43
    Joel says:

    @Cris (without an H): 7 of the last 9 polls have Tester leading. One is tied.

  44. 44
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @jharp:

    Damn fucking straight. You know who else is going to lose tomorrow? Todd fucking Akin. Seeing those two lose will just make my night.

  45. 45
    MikeJ says:

    @The prophet Nostradumbass: Mmm. Djangolicious.

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  46. 46
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @Soonergrunt:

    It’s not working for me at all. I just get a blank screen.

  47. 47
    piratedan says:

    running up the score means that maybe, just maybe… we take the House too. I would rather shit started to get done now versus relying the confidence fairy to gift us the house in 2014. This isn’t over until we start taxing the rich enough to shut the fuck up and be grateful that they’re still rich.

    I wanna see projects that make me curse in traffic but leave me secure in the knowledge that this place will be better for it when its done, be it a bridge, a road or a light rail project. I want to see America investing it itself, I want a manned mission to Mars, I want to see asteroid mining. I don’t want some asshat preacher in Kansas telling my granddaughter (who thankfully is still a gleam in my son’s eyes) who she can and can’t fool around with.

  48. 48
    Old Dan and Little Ann says:

    The wife and I are hitting the voting booth at 6 am before we our breakfast date. Then we’ll head off to our respective school for a tired day of teaching. Then it’s off to the liquor store for a cheap bottle of champagne at day’s end.

  49. 49
    JoyfulA says:

    @Spaghetti Lee: One year I voted in a Mortgage & Savings company; another year I voted in a bar (“private club” closed for the occasion).

    My first voting place was an elementary school; now I vote in a high school.

    I’ve voted in a church, too, but mostly I’ve voted in volunteer fire companies, four different ones to date.

  50. 50
    lamh35 says:

    @TaMara (BHF): aww thank you. right back atcha ya!!

  51. 51

    It’s Election Eve. I have a few questions.

    When the people at CNN and other Big Media (not FOX) who claim to be reporting “The News” continue to ignore the reasonable inferences from the polls (all of them) and either claim “It’s too close to call!” or “Romney surging!” what do they think they are doing?

    It’s Election Eve, they can’t be doing it to get an audience. Tomorrow’s Election Day. They will have their audience no matter what they say about the polls.

    Do they believe, in their heads and hearts, that the polls (all of them) are not reliable? Don’t they use the exact same methods to determine how many people and which people are watching their shows?

    Help me out here. I’m not understanding it.

  52. 52
    Baron Elmo says:

    Y’know whose wingnut tears will be the tastiest? The ones that will be flowing from gay turncoat Kevin DuJan, creator of the Hillbuzz site (formerly the fake home of the PUMAs). If you thought Dick Morris was overselling the forthcoming Romney landslide, take a gander at this:

    ******

    “I’m actually going to be watching MSNBC all day on Tuesday, from about 10am CST until the results are called later in the night. I’m going to treat it like the live stream transcripts I did of the presidential debates and will keep track of all the propaganda and lies that MSNBC tells people. This is the only time in my life that I will ever encourage people to watch MSNBC, but I am doing this because I want to see the meltdown that happens over there. I have been waiting for this for FOUR YEARS now.

    “I really think that Chris Matthews’ face is going to melt off completely on Election Night.

    “Rachel Maddow will sit there in stoned silence.

    “Al Sharpton will scream “RACISTS! THIS IS ALL RACIST-ISM!”.

    “The ghost of Tim Russert will materialize, have an ectoplasmic heart attack, and then disappear again forever.

    “It’s going to be great.

    “Tomorrow I am going to get the biggest honey-baked ham they have at the store. And I am going to eat delicious honey-baked ham all day on Tuesday. My friend Cecile in Michigan sent me two cases of Vernors and I’ll be drinking that as I watch MSNBC implode and panic. Justin’s going to be be out poll-watching with some other friends of ours, but I will be here manning the live stream coverage and making sure that it’s documented for history just how badly the Ministry of Truth behaved on Election Day…and how they melted into puddles of pure FREAK OUT when the state results rolled in.

    “I’ll also be watching several lefties on Facebook to monitor what the average Obama cultist is thinking as we get closer to Mitt Romney becoming out 45th president. It’s going to be marvelous seeing them all realize Nate Silver was lying to them and that there is in actuality a 0% of Obama being reelected. And there always has been, ever since Obamacare passed the House on March 21st, 2010.”

    Oh, the schadenfreude will be strong in the Baron’s house, yes indeed.

  53. 53
    lamh35 says:

    Just watched FLOTUS and POTUS at the last rally of his political career. The final rally is in the place where it all started…Iowa.

    I think it can definitely be said that without Iowa there would be no 44th President Barack Hussein Obama.

    I know that his Iowa win is what woke up me and my fellow Black voters to the possibility that Barack…our Barack could actually do this thing and almost instantly, we realized that Obama was one of us, one of OUR guys and we took him and his family into our homes, into our neighborhood, into our families and into our hearts and we never looked back. Call it what you want, racial pride or racial bias (conservatives), but he was here and Michelle was here and they had a chance and we never looked back.

    Tale of 2 speeches tonight. Obama inspirational love letter to supporters…Romney…Obama bad, me good…whatever!

    President Obama wiped away a tear as he gave his last campaign speech as a Presidential candidate. Tomorrow he finds out if he will be continuing his political career as President of the United States. He ended his speech by telling the story of his “Fired Up Ready to Go” and asking the supporters if they are “Fired Up and Ready to Go”.

    Pretty emotional. FLOTUS hugged POTUS and you could read her lips when she said “I’m proud of you”

  54. 54
    waratah says:

    @lamh35: Ed henry twittered that the folks downstairs in the ropeline said BO was tearing up

  55. 55
    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q) says:

    I vote at Issac Fucking M. Wise Temple.

  56. 56
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @James E. Powell:

    Muscle memory.

  57. 57
    The prophet Nostradumbass says:

    @Baron Elmo: Honeybaked hamsters and Vernors. Quality!

  58. 58
    Chris says:

    @James E. Powell:

    It’s simply them hedging their bets. No one knows for sure how it’ll turn out, and by saying “it looks close!” they don’t get to be embarrassed in the “Dewey Defeats Truman” sense.

  59. 59
    Chris says:

    @Baron Elmo:

    You know, this election’s been a real revelation to me in terms of how much it’s possible to fucking hate these people. Not politicians or pundits or financiers; the entire goddamn party. Including each and every last one of these grinning monkeys driven ecstatic by the thought of destroying their children’s future and all our futures just for the pleasure of sticking it to a hippie/Muslim/poor person/whatever. Including even friends and family that I thought I knew who completely lost their shit over the last four years.

    It’s a scary feeling, and an unhealthy one, but I really don’t know how else I’m supposed to feel about them.

  60. 60
    lamh35 says:

    @waratah: The tear falling from Obama’s eye tonight RT @dougmillsnyt: http://yfrog.com/9fyft6j A tear rolls

  61. 61
    Felonius Monk says:

    @Baron Elmo:

    Y’know whose wingnut tears will be the tastiest? The ones that will be flowing from gay turncoat Kevin DuJan, creator of the Hillbuzz site

    Wow, I had not run across that one before. Maybe Kevin ought to go back to jacking off, ’cause passing those turds must hurt plenty.

  62. 62
    TaMara (BHF) says:

    @lamh35: I went looking for the video.

    Here it is. Last stop Iowa. Next stop, 4 more years.

    Yes, we can.

  63. 63

    I had not looked at the “Hillaryis44” or “No Quarter USA” websites in several years before just now, and, lo and behold, they’re pushing Mitt Romney, as is MeatProd, aka myiq1/2xu, that “progressive”. myiq’s website, in particular, is using some rather Nazi-like imagery, comparing Obama to a blood-sucking tick.

  64. 64
    Full Metal Wingnut says:

    Ugh. My liberal friends are already panicking. Some dickbag in my feed posted Romney eking out an EV victory based on some Real Clear Politics bullshit. I had to sit behind this fucker in Contracts, watching him read either Drudge or RCP every. fucking. day. So now they “can’t sleep.”

    If Nate Silver is to be believed, the Ohio firewall is as strong as ever. Absent ratfuckery (which is not out of the question), OH is a virtual lock, as are PA and WI. IA, CO, and VA not quite as much, but still solid blue, above 80% according to Nate. And FL is looking like a tossup, with a slight (53%) edge for Obama. Which will be irrelevant if Obama wins all of the aforementioned states.

  65. 65
    Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason says:

    @Old Dan and Little Ann:

    Then it’s off to the liquor store for a cheap bottle of champagne at day’s end.

    Might I suggest Napa Chandon Blanc de Noir. Under twenty bucks and very good. I need to pick up some myself. If all else fails, it’s still our 31st anniversary tomorrow!

  66. 66

    @Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason: Personally, I prefer the Brut, but I do like a very dry sparkling wine.

  67. 67
    Skippy-san says:

    As Toby said on West Wing:” Don’t tempt the Gods of fate”. Run this headline after the election, because I am afraid its going to be a lot closer than Silver suggests. I won’t breath easy till we know its turned out the right way.

    And if Rmoney wins-I will stay drunk for a week.

  68. 68
    SRW1 says:

    I don’t want to touch on how Obama is going to sell out, cause, you know, there’s gonna be plenty of time for that.

    What I do want to enjoy in every gruesome detail and slow motion is the fury of True Conservatives(TM) shredding the Rombot into a pile of metal dust.

  69. 69
    Applejinx says:

    To narrowly win the EC is not enough.

    Mind you, I’ll still cheer.

    But I’m going to spend all day in New Hampshire doing whatever, just to try and run up the score higher. This needs to be an absolute rout, and all the cheating the Republicans are trying to do has to backfire AND fail.

    That needs to be the precedent.

  70. 70
    comrade scott's agenda of rage says:

    @PhoenixRising:

    My final door knock in Ron Barber’s new district (Gabi Giffords’ joint, Pima County) on Saturday featured a registered Democrat who is too pure to vote for Ron. Or Obama. Because she wants the unicorns. (Marriage equality, single payer, etc were the names of her pretty sparkly ponies.)

    Oh, I didn’t realize that Calamity Jane or her kossack surrogate, slinkerwink, lived in Arizona.

    Assholes. Do. Vex. Me.

  71. 71
    comrade scott's agenda of rage says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    Are you in Columbia MO? You said you live in a blue county in a red state.

    I’m just to your southeast in the second reddest county in Misery, Osage. Believe me, Rmoney and Akin will massively carry this county of 13K white people.

  72. 72
    Todd says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    Better yet, castle doctrine/stand your ground.

  73. 73
    PaulW says:

    The second term may be likely in the polls, but I’ll feel a TON better after the countings done and Obama does win.

    GET THE VOTE OUT.

    STOP THE GOP VOTER SUPPRESSION (Arresting Husted and Scott would go a long way towards fixing that).

    PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD VOTE OBAMA.

  74. 74
    BobS says:

    To answer your question, it will be Social Security and Medicare- the progressive fix of those programs would be to remove any cap on earnings for SS and Medicare-For-All. Obama seems to view any entitlement solutions through a Bowles-Simpson lens. Unfortunately, such ‘centrist’ fucking with SS and Medicare would not only negatively effect the lives of millions of Americans, it would also make it easier for Republicans to run against Democrats on those issues in the future.

  75. 75
    El Cid says:

    I’m basing my voting decision and preference based upon which available alternative exists:

    The Obama administration with its existing record and likely future behavior (which includes things I do and do not and will and will not support), or a Romney administration, with his existing record and a Republican administration’s likely future behavior.

    I greatly prefer the future of an Obama / Democratic administration than a Romney / Republican administration. That’s all.

    I’m not basing this upon an imaginary contract that an imagined Obama / Democratic administration has tendered to me, in my head.

    So if Obama and his administration and/or Democratic elected officials do things which are better rather than worse, I’ll say so, and if they do things which are worse rather than better, I’ll say so, and it won’t matter in any one case whether or not someone here or elsewhere thinks this puts me in the category of “Obot” or “Firebagger” or whatever.

  76. 76
    Percysowner says:

    @MikeJ:

    Didja see on the Slog that the GOP is going door to door be helpful and offering to take your ballot in for you? I wonder how many people will trust them to do it.

    Well in Ohio that’s called Voter Fraud. I’ve been working on GOTV and we have been told time and time again we are not allowed to touch a ballot. Someone dropped theirs on the floor and the staff left it sitting there because otherwise the ballot would be invalid and the staff would be charged with Voter Fraud.

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