I got an email from one of our loyal lurkers about this piece, which claims that the Romney strategy is to “cut the nuts off” of Obama by running up the popular vote in uncontested states, using ads, to get a popular vote win even if Obama takes the electoral college.
Even if you live in a blue state, it’s stupid not to vote. There are probably a couple of down-ticket races that could use your vote, even if it “doesn’t matter” for the Presidential race. We covered protest voting ad nauseum this morning. If you’re thinking about a protest vote in a “safe” state, it’s probably worth contemplating the possibility that Obama will win the electoral college and Romney could win the popular vote in a close race. Presumably, the thousands of voters who won’t or can’t vote because of Sandy will make this a more likely possibility, even though it is a long shot.
That said, I’m not convinced that the money spent on the ads is commensurate with the possibility of an electoral/popular split. First, the math is against it. Second, there’s a huge incentive for Rove and the other grifters who’ve taken a ton of Republicans’ money to spend it anywhere they can, and spin a bullshit story about why it makes sense to run Romney ads in Tennessee or Oregon. If the PACs are paying for ads the same way that Republicans run ads in Congressional races, the consulting firm placing the ads takes a commission based on the number of ads they run. In other words, Karl Rove, or one of his buddies, gets paid more if his PAC runs more ads. And even if I’m wrong and he doesn’t get a cut, he wants to be around to pick up the pieces after Obama breaks Republican hearts. If he doesn’t “spend” every penny he gets, he’s less likely to get donors in ’14 or ’16. He needs to be able to show the donors how hard he tried, and spending money on sure losers is “trying”.
Finally, for those of you were decrying the lack of an Obama 50 state strategy in this morning’s thread, consider this. The Obama campaign ran about as close to a 50 state strategy as they could in 2008. They had serious resources devoted to South Dakota during Spring and Summer, and to North Dakota almost to the end. Both of those states haven’t voted for a Democrat since LBJ. It’s hard to fault them for taking a hard look at the 2012 race and deciding that they can’t do that again. Unlike Karl Rove’s last minute Hail Mary, that was a real try, and it failed.