Everything seems to be up in the air at this time

Public enemy number one Nate Silver makes a simple case for Obama being the favorite:

Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

I buy this, but I also believe it’s time to throw the Republicans an anvil. Do some canvassing this weekend if you can. Give MBAL some money if you’ve got it:

Goal Thermometer

And don’t forget to vote, and harangue all of your deadbeat (but liberal) friends into voting on Tuesday.

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143 replies
  1. 1
    Elizabelle says:

    For John’s mom, although she probably knows: Chincoteague ponies came through Hurricane Sandy just fine. All present and accounted for.

    Some nice pics of horsies here.

  2. 2
    AA+ Bonds says:

    INFILTRATING THE LINCOLN CLUB: MY LUNCH WITH THE POWERFUL RIGHTWING GROUP BEHIND CITIZENS UNITED AND CA’S ANTI-UNION LEGISLATION by Matthew Fleischer

    “Hi, I’m Teresa. I’m a member.” She lets that settle in. “So… ‘Allen,’” she says, staring skeptically at my pseudonymous name tag. “Where are you from?”
    __
    “Glendale,” I tell her, which is true, even though it’s an hour’s drive north in L.A. County – which has its own Lincoln Club.
    __
    “Glendale, huh? That must have been quite a . . . schlep.”
    __
    I breathe a sigh of relief. She doesn’t suspect me of being a journalist. I must have merely set off her Jewdar.
    __
    “Oy,” I say, laying it on thick, “a schlep indeed. No traffic, thank heavens.”

  3. 3
  4. 4
    Mark S. says:

    Nate Silver’s election predictions are lies straight from the pit of hell!

  5. 5
    Elizabelle says:

    Nate Silver. Confidence Fairy assassin.

    A third argument is that Mr. Romney has the momentum in the polls: whether or not he would win an election today, the argument goes, he is on a favorable trajectory that will allow him to win on Tuesday.
    __
    This may be the worst of the arguments, in my view. It is contradicted by the evidence, simply put.

  6. 6
    Culture of Truth says:

    “The truth is, the next election has already been decided. Obama is going to win. It’s nearly impossible to beat an incumbent president,” advertiser Porter Stansberry wrote in an email sent to Gingrich supporters.

    “What’s actually at stake right now is whether or not he will have a third-term.”

  7. 7
    handy says:

    @AA+ Bonds:

    YES BUT UNIONS ARE TAKING MONEY OUT OF MY PAYCHECK TO CONTRIBUTE TO SLEAZOCRAT POLITICIANS AND SOROS TWO GUYS ON THE RADIO TOLD ME THE OTHER DAY I AM VERY CONCERNED!

  8. 8
    khead says:

    Heh.

    I am sure I am not alone.

  9. 9
    gbear says:

    I stamped and dropped 500 GOTV postcards in the mail on halloween night for people who’d pledged to vote NO against the MN marriage ammendment.

    I really don’t have any deadbeat friends. Everybody votes and everyone votes either straight Dem ticket or for the genuinely moderate republican (I <3 Arne Carlson). There haven't been any moderate republicans for ages so it's straight Dem all the way down the ticket for me and most of my friends and family.

  10. 10
    catclub says:

    “Obama’s ahead in Ohio.”

    Doesn’t quite scan with ‘Four dead in O-hi-o’
    But the head rhymes with dead.

  11. 11
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @Culture of Truth:

    Never change, guys!

  12. 12
    Culture of Truth says:

    Media as Hot Lips:

    “Nate Silver is ruining this election – for all of us!”

  13. 13
    Smiling Mortician says:

    @Culture of Truth: Lolwut? Don’t get me wrong — I’m glad you didn’t provide a link, but still, WTF does he mean? Or, alternatively, never mind because I don’t really care.

  14. 14
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    Public enemy number one Nate Silver

    Reason #54,837 why Villago delenda est.

  15. 15
    Seanly says:

    I do worry about voting issues in a few states like OH, PA, CO, etc. etc. However, if you talk to my wife, you’ll find I have a tendency to be a bit of a chicken little – mostly in regards to our checkbook…

  16. 16
    catclub says:

    @Culture of Truth: I so wish a popular president would run for VP. Note, the only recent popular president who could have tried this is Clinton.

    It worked for Putin!

  17. 17
    Just Some Fuckhead says:

    So tired of Gay Silver and The Liberal New York Times doing their damnednest to destroy white America. Save us Governor Christie!

  18. 18
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Elizabelle:

    Silver is wrong.

    The momentum Rmoney has been showing is that of losing ground.

    Therefore, the more ground that is lost in the polls in the next four days, the more likely his landslide is.

    OK, I just seriously dislocated my brain with that last sentence.

  19. 19
    handy says:

    Metrosexual Abelincoln Manichean Monster Disco DougJ’s first post title after it’s been called: Way to go, Ohio

  20. 20
    Smiling Mortician says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: No, no. It makes sense. The more ground you lose, the more likely that the land will actually, you know, slide. You’re on a roll. Keep going.

  21. 21
    PreservedKillick says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Silver is wrong.

    The momentum Rmoney has been showing is that of losing ground.

    That’s what Nate’s saying…

  22. 22
    Schlemizel says:

    BIL posted some piece of dog shit on FB supposed to be a letter he received from BCBS saying how insurance rates are going to skyrocket because of AHA. It looks all very official but it smelled bad. Went to Snoopes . . . do I even need to finish this sentence? Pure 100% bullshit. I posted “ITS A GOD DAMNED LIE” and the snoopes link.

    I shouldn’t be surprised, back in the 90’s he had my dad terrified that The Klinton wassa designing a plan that would send old people to death camps (I am not exaggerating sadly) and my dad, a life-long Dem & proud union member fell for it.

    If I may paraphrase Sammy L: I am so fucking sick of these motherfucking wingnuts on my motherfucking country.

  23. 23
    Culture of Truth says:

    Never bring facts to a pundit fight

  24. 24
    mdblanche says:

    Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

    Interesting. Not “Mr. Obama is ahead,” just “Obama’s ahead.” Seems like somebody is getting tired of the New York Times and all of its pretensions.

  25. 25
    donnah says:

    I’ll be out of town on Election Day, so I voted absentee. It will be the first time I’ve ever been away from home during the Election, and that will be tough. When Obama won in 2008, my husband and I toasted the momentous win with champagne. I kept the cork from the bottle and I’m taking it with me when I leave this weekend. I guess we’ll celebrate when I get back.

  26. 26
    shortstop says:

    I love Sam Wang, cranky old man in a young man’s body, more every day. This morning he gently tears off Chris Cillizza’s arms and beats Cillizza with them.

    ETA: That’s the adorable kind of cranky old man, not the kind we usually get around here.

  27. 27
    muddy says:

    @catclub:

    Doesn’t quite scan with ‘Four dead in O-hi-o’
    But the head rhymes with dead.

    How dare you!! It’s 4 dead in Benghazi, but the lieberal media won’t let anyone talk about it.

  28. 28
  29. 29
    rageahol says:

    All across the nation people are getting together….

    Can’t believe 24 comments and no recognition yet. Late 80s college radio 4 lyfe.

  30. 30
    Bill E Pilgrim says:

    @Elizabelle: Between this and the economy improving with the deficit still fairly high, confidence fairies may be falling from the sky this winter. The Republican party might have to adopt “Puff the Magic Dragon” as their new theme song.

    I was hearing today that NYC-NJ cleanup is going to take so much money that it will likely be a surprise stimulus program all its own, because even the scrooges in the GOP can’t really deny people who have no water, roads, houses, etc, and I was thinking that could actually spur a real recovery finally.

  31. 31
    Chyron HR says:

    Romney/Ryan is EXPANDING THE MAP into Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Organ! Is Ohio now IRRELEVANT?

  32. 32
    dedc79 says:

    Note that Rasmussen has begun its pre-election reversion to the mean so that they can claim they were accurate on election day.

    the national tracker had romney in the lead for the past few weeks, but now shows a tie.

    The ohio poll that had been one of the only to show romney winning is now a tie.

    Expect more of the same between now and election day.

  33. 33
    The Dangerman says:

    …to throw the Republicans an anvil.

    Then give them lots of Advil.

    I estimate that the chances of Obama being impeached if the Republicans keep the House is roughly 100% (Benghazi! Benghazi! Benghazi!). Of course, it will be a waste of time given the Senate makeup, but wasting time is what they will want to do. In a perfect world, the House flips and the Senate nukes the Filibuster and we get on with the business of fixing shit.

  34. 34
    Nina says:

    Florida is going to be called early for Obama. PA and Ohio are going to be called late because of Sandy-related delays (PA) and vote counting shenanigans (OH, with their Republican secretary of state). Obama will win anyway, but there will be questions and poutrage and the Republicans will refuse to concede for at least 4 more years.

  35. 35
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    Oregonians who like their all-postal ballot system may not be impressed by the temporary election worker in one county who’s been helpfully filling in those ballots for the GOP. (Though the fact that the state is coming down on it like a ton o’bricks is a testament to Oregon’s culture of fair elections, which is what matters here.)

  36. 36
    rlrr says:

    @Chyron HR:

    How many electoral votes does Organ have?

  37. 37
    Sir Nose'D says:

    I did some early voting today in Montgomery Co., Ohio, and you better believe I brought the funk. I funked the shit out of that ballot.

    More to the point, though, I arrived at 10 am, and was #400. It took me an hour to get a ballot, and when I left they were in the 600s. And if one is to believe the August poll numbers of blah-Americans (you know, 94-0), I would say it was a very good day for Obama at the booth.

  38. 38
    Yutsano says:

    @The Dangerman: I can’t fathom how the teatard freshmen are keeping their seats. They haven’t done jack in Congress over the last two years and in some ways made things worse. Of course this is all Obama’s fault.

  39. 39
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    I think the troll may be expanding the fap.

  40. 40
    rlrr says:

    @Nina:

    If Obama wins Florida, Ohio is irrelevant.

  41. 41
    Chyron HR says:

    @rlrr:

    One, but it’s a big one.

  42. 42
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Yutsano:

    I can’t fathom how the teatard freshmen are keeping their seats.

    Redistricting, in some cases. In others, the power of incumbency to raise money from the moment they took office.

  43. 43

    Bobo, the Moustache of Understanding, and DoubThat regularly write drivel in the NYT and not a peep. But Nate gets scolded for actually doing his job and THEN having the stones to back up his work! Those biased liberals at the NYT are getting very tiresome.

  44. 44
    catclub says:

    @mdblanche: President Mr Professor Doktor Obama, as the Germans might put it.

  45. 45
    The Dangerman says:

    @Yutsano:

    Of course this is all Obama’s fault.

    Goes without saying; after all, he hasn’t been sufficiently bipartisan (read: he hasn’t rolled over and let the Tea Party burn it to the ground).

    After all the redistricting shenanigans after 2010, I expect most of the Plain White Tea Shits to get reelected; indeed, I’d be far from surprised if only a few of them get defeated. The game at that level is basically rigged.

  46. 46
    EconWatcher says:

    @Nina:

    If Obama wins and the Senate stays in Dem hands, I suspect Justice Ginsberg will announce retirement fairly soon. She’s had a lot of health problems (and deserves a good rest with the nation’s thanks).

    Her replacement? I’m gunning for someone no older than 50, a health-food and exercise nut whose parents both lived into their 90s…..

  47. 47
    Yutsano says:

    @pseudonymous in nc: I think the FPers are playing Whack-A-Troll. It keeps sprouting new nyms.

  48. 48
    mdblanche says:

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    Between this and the economy improving with the deficit still fairly high, confidence fairies may be falling from the sky this winter.

    “There ought to be one confidence fairy for every columnist and pundit.”

    “Ought to be? Isn’t there?”

    “No. You see bloggers know such a lot now, they soon don’t believe in confidence fairies, and every time a blogger says, ‘I don’t believe in confidence fairies,’ there is a little confidence fairy somewhere that falls down dead.”

  49. 49
    cmorenc says:

    @Yutsano:

    I can’t fathom how the teatard freshmen are keeping their seats. They haven’t done jack in Congress over the last two years and in some ways made things worse.

    Because the GOP successfully parlayed their success in state house elections in 2010 into gerrymandering a twenty seat net advantage in the house to the GOP. In North Carolina, the gerrymandering was so aggressive down to street level that individual precincts were split across two or more congressional or state legislature districts.

  50. 50
    catclub says:

    @rlrr: Yes, I posted yesterday that Mittmentum in Florida is receding and that the response to Sandy might be helping. 1) Sandy did not hit Florida
    2) response to Sandy was competent.

    George W Bush could be looked on as an UNlucky amulet for the US. 9/11, Katrina, then all the littler bad things, starting with a US submarine surfacing (showboating) and sinking a Japanese fishing boat, Then 4 or five Hurricanes in 2004,
    then the 2008 financial crisis.

    Obama, by contrast, has been both competent and lucky.

    Obama

  51. 51
    EconWatcher says:

    @catclub:

    O’Bama does seem to have the luck of the Irish

  52. 52
    gbear says:

    @Jeremy: Take the wingnuts bowling, take them bowling.

  53. 53
    eemom says:

    I haven’t cared much for a lot of Silver’s written work, but his column today is priceless — essentially boils down to “Look, assholes, this ain’t complicated. You wanna deny reality, be my guest.”

  54. 54
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @EconWatcher:

    Her replacement? I’m gunning for someone no older than 50, a health-food and exercise nut whose parents both lived into their 90s…..

    That’s Nate Silver’s next dataset: probability that a SCOTUS appointee will live for the next X years. Lots of actuarial tables for that one.

  55. 55
    geg6 says:

    @Nina:

    PA and Ohio are going to be called late because of Sandy-related delays (PA)

    Doubtful. I am in PA and communicate daily with our campuses all over the state. I am unaware of any reason there would be delays.

  56. 56
    Davis X. Machina says:

    @catclub: Any sportswriter will tell you good teams make their own luck.

  57. 57
    Higgs Boson's Mate says:

    @catclub:
    Bloomberg is saying that the damage estimate for Sandy is around $50bn. Romney is missing a bet if he doesn’t start barnstorming the area and having folks pass the hat to raise that sum.

  58. 58
    catclub says:

    @Bill E Pilgrim: “even the scrooges in the GOP can’t really deny people who have no water, roads, houses, etc”

    Your faith in the goodness of scoundrels is touching.
    They wanted cuts to pay for emergency relief to Missouri.
    You can bet they will demand it for NY/NJ/Conn.

  59. 59
    eemom says:

    @shortstop:

    I love Sam Wang, cranky old man in a young man’s body, more every day. This morning he gently tears off Chris Cillizza’s arms and beats Cillizza with them.

    I kiss his cranky old feet. Fucking HATE that little prick.

  60. 60
    Ash Can says:

    I just hope other states can pick up the slack for Ohio if OH turns out to be the clusterfuck discussed a couple of threads ago. More than ever, I hope it turns out that ThinkProgress et al. are worried for nothing.

  61. 61
    Trinity says:

    @gbear: Everybody’s coming home for lunch these day. Last night there were wingnuts on my lawn. (still love that song!)

  62. 62
    Downpuppy says:

    The one place that polling has failed completely is the Arizona Senate race. It’s like all the pollsters are faking it.

  63. 63
    The Dangerman says:

    @catclub:

    2) response to Sandy was competent.

    I’m going to flip that a bit; I think Romney’s response to Sandy was shown to be incompetent. There are fundraisers for the Red Cross all over the place and it’s rather well known that the Red Cross REALLY doesn’t want canned tuna, etc.; I think Romney’s Ohio “Sandy” event has hurt him drastically (when the book comes out on his campaign, you can put money that the food drive was his idea and his advisers rolled over for him).

    Oh, also, Yutsano: My work/family world is interesting (massive understatement) and my NW travel plans are rather fluid; other than being in WA from 11/9 to 11/11, I have no idea what my travel plans are. In my world, that I even know I’ll be in WA on those few days is actually a bit of a surprise (indeed, even those dates aren’t 100% fixed, though it’s close).

  64. 64
    LanceThruster says:

    @AA+ Bonds:

    xD

  65. 65
    Brachiator says:

    @Elizabelle:

    A third argument is that Mr. Romney has the momentum in the polls: whether or not he would win an election today, the argument goes, he is on a favorable trajectory that will allow him to win on Tuesday. This may be the worst of the arguments, in my view. It is contradicted by the evidence, simply put

    .Shorter: if you believe in momentum, Romney might win if the election wereto be held on November 15.

    @eemom:

    I haven’t cared much for a lot of Silver’s written work, but his column today is priceless—essentially boils down to “Look, assholes, this ain’t complicated. You wanna deny reality, be my guest.

    Silver’s analyses and explication of his results is impeccable. The rest is commentary.

    The bottom line, and the only thing that is important, is the competence of his methodology of analyzing polls. It is typical deflective bullshit that there is any faux controversy over this at all.

  66. 66
    catclub says:

    @Downpuppy: +6,-4+6,-4,+6,-4

    Wow.

  67. 67

    @Jeremy:
    Heh. turns out we’re both right.

    I recognized it from Fear of Music, one of my favorite albums of all time.

    My CVB-fu is limited. I like their cover of Matchstick Men, but beyond that never got into them. Little too polka/klezmer for my personal tastes. (Others’, of course, may vary).

  68. 68
    trollhattan says:

    @eemom:
    “Let’s see if we move the ball forward for Team Geek on Tuesday.”
    Dr. Wang kan haz a dream.

  69. 69
    Bill E Pilgrim says:

    @catclub: No that wasn’t my faith, it was that of whoever I heard discussing it on NPR.

    I do think that something that hit Manhattan instead of New Orleans could possibly generate some sort of turnaround on this austerity fad, the right-wingers aren’t going to let go of it of course but in recent years they’ve gotten supposed moderates convinced and that part can change, these things are cyclical to some degree.

    @mdblanche: Where is that quoted from?

  70. 70
    Legalize says:

    @EconWatcher:
    That would be nice. I suspect the filibuster will have to be nuked to get ANY of Obama’s judges through in his second term, including supreme court nominees.

  71. 71
    trollhattan says:

    @catclub:
    Goofy numbers. AZ senate race has been off my radar completely, but if there’s any chance of booting Flake into retirement it’s worth watching. Maybe Jan Brewer can stump for him.

  72. 72
    mdblanche says:

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Peter Pan, another tale of arrested development.

  73. 73
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Downpuppy: That has the feel of an environment where the demographics combine with methodology to produce very different samples.

    According to TPM, the last presidential poll in AZ was October 21 (Ras: R+8) so there’s not much there to go on.

  74. 74
    LAC says:

    @shortstop: Where and when did this happy event happen? I want to do that every time I hear or see that dork on my radio/RV.

  75. 75
    Bulworth says:

    While I’m far from confident, The Washington Moonie Times of our nation’s capital has a blaring headline declaring the race a “dead heat”. I hadn’t realized the conservative intelligencia was that worried. You know things are bad when they say “dead heat”.

  76. 76
    ThatLeftTurnInABQ says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Reason #54,837 why Villago delenda est.

    Reasons why Villago delenda est has become a new form of infinity. The only question remaining open is where does it rank compared with the different ancien regime forms of infinity like the count of the set of natural numbers, etc.

  77. 77
    Bill E Pilgrim says:

    @mdblanche: Ah I see, well done. Sorry I missed it.

  78. 78
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @PreservedKillick:

    Silver is wrong.

    As far as the vermin of the Village are concerned, because Dick Morris said so, that’s why!

  79. 79
    Elizabelle says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Ah. So we are saying that Romney’s campaign has gravity, not momentum.

    Fine by me.

  80. 80
    catclub says:

    @pseudonymous in nc: “presidential poll in AZ was October 21 (Ras: R+8) so there’s not much there to go on.”

    Gosh, given that all the Flake up by 6 polls were Rasmussen, I find Ras’s R+8 positively encouraging.

  81. 81
    Roger Moore says:

    @catclub:

    I so wish a popular president would run for VP.

    I don’t think that would be legal. The 12th Amendment says that the qualifications for Vice President are identical to those for President, so somebody who has already served two terms as President should be ineligible to run for VP. Wikipedia says there’s some dispute about this, but I think in practice that no political party would want to test the issue in court during an election.

  82. 82
    EconWatcher says:

    If the current Indiana polling is accurate, the Tea Party is going to get a nice, sharp stick in the eye. They had a completely safe seat and reliable conservative vote with Lugar. They bounced him for no other reason than he was reasonably polite to Obama, in keeping with his duly elected office. And now they’ll pay.

  83. 83
    Paul says:

    @Schlemizel:

    BIL posted some piece of dog shit on FB supposed to be a letter he received from BCBS saying how insurance rates are going to skyrocket because of AHA. It looks all very official but it smelled bad. Went to Snoopes . . . do I even need to finish this sentence? Pure 100% bullshit. I posted “ITS A GOD DAMNED LIE” and the snoopes link.

    You may also want to ask your BIL where the heck he has been over the last 20 years. Insurance rates have gone up big time each year. On top of that deductibles have also gone up over the last 20 years. Why was your BIL OK with that?

    Hell, the whole point behind ACA was that our economy couldn’t handle the huge cost we have had to endure.

  84. 84
    muddy says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    As far as the vermin of the Village are concerned, because Dick Morris said so, that’s why!

    His version of haruspices involves the sucking of toes.

  85. 85
    Elizabelle says:

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    I’ll take it.

    Hurricane stimulus. Heck of a way to get one, but if it stimulates the economy and wakes the powers that be up about global warming preparation, okay. (I guess we will all know more about the Dutch and their foresight within the next few weeks. Or maybe not.)

    Confidence fairies must observe gravity too.

  86. 86
    Roger Moore says:

    @shortstop:

    That’s the adorable kind of cranky old man, not the kind we usually get around here.

    What, you don’t find Cranky Old Cole to be adorable?

  87. 87
    EconWatcher says:

    What does it say about the modern Republican Party, when they’re probably going to lose not one but two Senate seats they should easily have won, in both cases because their candidates made inappropriate comments about rape?

    I mean, think about that for a minute. WTF?

  88. 88
    schrodinger's cat says:

    @Elizabelle: It doesn’t have gravity, it obeys gravity, so its going down, down, down. BTW you know who has gravity? Tunch, for he can distort the space time continuum due to his sheer size.

  89. 89
    Mike Lamb says:

    @Bill E Pilgrim: I’m not sure where I read it, but statistics say that major disasters don’t have stimulative effects in this fasion and economies almost always take a hit from major disasters.

  90. 90
    LanceThruster says:

    Rmoney’s latest campaign appeal…

    Homer: [melancholy] My campaign is a disaster, Moe. [angry] I hate the public so much! [melancholy] If only they’d elect me. [angry] I’d make ’em pay! [melancholy] Aw, Moe, how do I make ’em like me?
    Moe: Eh, gee, you’re kind of all over the place, Homer, you need to focus
    here. You gotta…think hard, and come up with a slogan that appeals to all the lazy slobs out there.
    Homer: [moans] Can’t someone else do it?
    Moe: “Can’t someone else do it?”, that’s perfect!

  91. 91
    Haydnseek says:

    @Yutsano: That magical wingnut elixir of hate, fear, and stupidity would be my guess.

  92. 92
    Humanities Grad says:

    @Chyron HR:

    Damn, Romney’s expanding the map so much he’s even inventing new states.

    Here I thought his campaign wasn’t that smart. Turns out I’ve been underestimating them all along.

  93. 93

    @Roger Moore:
    Memory might be failing me, but I seem to remember that Reagan briefly flirted with having Ford on the ticket as VP.

    I forget why the idea was dropped.

  94. 94
    Michael says:

    This song seems like a good choice for a DougJ election headline. Some possibilities:

    It was one of those great nights
    It was in Ohio
    **
    It feels like I got so old last night, In Ohio
    **
    She said yeah Virginia, but now it’s Ohio
    **
    Some day I’ll end up in Ohio

  95. 95
    rlrr says:

    @Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God:

    I remember that, too. May have even been legal since Ford only served a partial term.

  96. 96
    Roger Moore says:

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    It doesn’t have gravity, it obeys gravity, so its going down, down, down.

    How is the Romney campaign like Sheldon Cooper and a Black Hole? They all suck!

  97. 97

    @Chyron HR: Sweet Buddha, son, never ever Romney/Ryan and their expanding Organ again.

  98. 98
    Downpuppy says:

    @pseudonymous in nc: Way back in the day, I worked for a firm that bought time for ad campaigns on local TV around the country. Phoenix was the one market in the country where the rates never settled down.

    Irrelevant? Most likely.

    It sure looks like the pollers are telling their clients what they want to hear.

  99. 99
    EconWatcher says:

    @Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God:

    Ford said no. And he had never been elected President, so there would have been no constitutional bar.

  100. 100

    @Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God: It would be problematic should the President die in office.

  101. 101
    danimal says:

    @The Dangerman: In honor of our President’s Romnesia Foxworthy riff:

    You might be a Republican if….

    …you think BENGHAZEEEEEE should disqualify Obama because 4 Americans died there but hold Bush unaccountable for 9/11.

  102. 102
    piratedan says:

    @Downpuppy: seems like it comes down to this…. are Latino and Native American voters truly engaged and going to show up to the polls are not?

    If the answer is yes and the GOTV machine is humming smnoothly, Flake is toast and Obama actually has a chance to take the state….

    I can tell you this, Ras doesn’t do polling in Spanish and they sure as hell don’t call anyone on the Rez. Lord knows I’ve been through enough of their surveys. Latinos care about the Dream Act and care about meaningful immigration reform, Natives are looking for anyone to give them a hand outside of having a casino group looking to put up a building. Unemployment is especially tough out there, anything regarding clean energy, education, clean tech would be welcomed wholesale. I sure as hell don’t think that the R’s even know the differences between the tribes only that there is land to be exploited.

  103. 103
    Roger Moore says:

    @Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God:
    Catclub was asking about popular former Presidents, which would rule Ford right out.

  104. 104
    The Moar You Know says:

    Put on my hip waders, the ones I use for walking in ponds of shit, and took a hike over to see what the RedState Trike Force was up to.

    They’re about a day and a half, maybe less, from passing out the KoolAid and cyanide. The despair is palpably bubbling right below the surface. And, in the case of Erickson’s cri de coeur “I just want this to be over” this morning, right out in the open.

  105. 105
    MikeJ says:

    @Roger Moore: I was disappointed they didn’t go with “infinitely dense”.

  106. 106
    piratedan says:

    @Humanities Grad: the map is expanding…. to The Cayman Islands, Monaco, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and China…. cause that’s where the Mittster banks his profits!

  107. 107
    feebog says:

    I know most of the Senate forcasts see little or no change in the final numbers, but I’m beginning to wonder if the Dems might not pull off a semi-miracle here. Thanks to the Tea Party, it looks like McCaskill, who was road kill in August is going to retain her seat. It also looks like Tester will hold on in Montana and we may even retain the seat in North Dakota. If that happens we could be looking at the following:

    Baldwin and Kaine hang on to Dem seats in VA and WI. Kerrey narrowly loses in NB, but that is offset by wins in MA and ME, and Indiana. That’s a gain of two. Add NV and AZ to the mix, could be a gain of three or even four.

  108. 108
    meyerman says:

    Definitely looking like a telephone free landslide victory.

  109. 109
    chopper says:

    @Chyron HR:

    SHOCK POLL!

    obambi is only ahead by 20 points in hawaii! does this mean ALOHA for obummer?

    only 4 days til PRESIDENT-ELECT WILLARD!

  110. 110
    Geoduck says:

    @The Moar You Know:

    And, in the case of Erickson’s cri de coeur “I just want this to be over” this morning, right out in the open.

    For the first time ever, something I agree with Erickson about.

  111. 111
    NonyNony says:

    @Brachiator:

    Shorter: if you believe in momentum, Romney might win if the election wereto be held on November 15.

    Even Better – it’s more like “if you believe in momentum, Romney not only won’t win the election next week, he wouldn’t win it if it were held in December”.

    Actual, non-shorter Silver:

    If you evaluate the polls in this way, there is not much evidence of “momentum” toward Mr. Romney. Instead, the case that the polls have moved slightly toward Mr. Obama is stronger.

  112. 112
    Roger Moore says:

    @MikeJ:
    But a black hole isn’t infinitely dense, at least if you treat the entire contents within the event horizon as being part of the black hole. In that case, they have a well-defined mass and size and hence a finite but very high density.

  113. 113
    gbear says:

    @chopper: Very good. You’re better than the original.

  114. 114
    Liberty60 says:

    How come everyone is venting their wrath on Nate Silver, but nobody is going after the Intrade guys, who have about the same odds?

    Are they big and burly?

  115. 115
    bemused says:

    I had a panic this afternoon when I found out my elderly fil’s hip replacement surgery was moved up 4 days to next Tues….election day. The hospital is 2 hours away and our polling place hours are 10 to 8 with no guarantee if we’d get back in time to vote. It’s too late to get an absentee ballot in MN. After a flurry of phone calls, I found out we can vote in-person absentee at our nearest auditor office which is only a half hour away today, tomorrow and Mon. Whew. I am so grateful for our decent voting system here (for now, who knows if MN idiots will go heavy for Voter ID amendment) and our great SOS Mark Ritchie.

  116. 116
    LAC says:

    @LAC: TV. I don’t own an RV and if I did, Chris Cilliza would be hanging off it holding on for dear life. :)

    Chopper: Cilliza would put Hawaii in his tossup pile, along with California and NY. After all, why not?

  117. 117
    hueyplong says:

    I guess nothing says LIEberal panic like a mere three touchdown lead in Hawaii.

  118. 118
    schrodinger's cat says:

    @Roger Moore: The Republicans are dense, alright.

  119. 119
    MikeJ says:

    @Roger Moore: But having a well defined size is the trick there, isn’t it?

  120. 120
    Surreal American says:

    @chopper:

    obambi is only ahead by 20 points in hawaii! does this mean ALOHA for obummer?

    I call fake Verily-An-Ass. No way he’s that clever.

  121. 121
    trollhattan says:

    @chopper:
    Speaking of which, where’s my Taco platter today? One too many trips under the banhammer?

  122. 122
    mdblanche says:

    @EconWatcher: Ford served enough of Nixon’s term to count as a one term President for 22nd Amendment purposes, but since he was still eligible for another that wouldn’t have been an issue. If he had served and Reagan had left office early, he would even have been eligible for re-election if he served less than two years of Reagan’s term.

  123. 123
    zzyzx says:

    @rageahol:

    CvB fun fact: Did you know that if you play Five Sticks backwards, it turns out that it’s Ambiguity Song reversed. I did that at my college radio station that had it on vinyl.

  124. 124
    The Moar You Know says:

    Speaking of which, where’s my Taco platter today? One too many trips under the banhammer?

    @trollhattan: Looks like he just got another one, he was comment #114, I refreshed and he is gone.

    Really, what are you going to do this close to the election anyway? It’s all over but the shouting and it’s painfully obvious to all that Obama wins it, and not even by a ratfuckable margin. The end.

  125. 125
    Joel says:

    @feebog: Nate SIlver hasn’t updated his senate map in ages. If you look at Indiana (Nate Silver rates it 75% for Mourdock), the only polls in the past few weeks that show Mourdock leading are his house pollster’s releases. And thats in a field of polls that show him down anywhere up to 11 points.

    By the way, Rasmussen has shifted +8 points in favor of Donnelly in the last month.

    Here’s the current spread of what were thought to be contestable races, using Pollster’s model (since Silver is way behind and Wang doesn’t have individual senate forecasts):

    FL +7.8
    MO +7.5
    OH +5.7
    CT +5.6
    MA +4.2
    IN +3.5
    MT +1.9
    VA +1.4
    WI +1.0
    ND +0.3
    AZ -1.2

    If you take the splits at zero, that puts the Democrats at 55 seats (King caucusing). That’s Sam Wang’s mode, which is obviously not a coincidence, since he’s using the same data.

  126. 126
    Bubblegum Tate says:

    @LanceThruster:

    Ow, ow, stupid trash, rotten, stinky, hate world, revenge soon, take out on everyone.

  127. 127
    Bill E Pilgrim says:

    @Mike Lamb: Okay so now I’ve Googled up a mess of articles about the subject, and there are certainly a lot of people of that opinion, but I’m not so sure. Several of them pointed toward this article, which is first of all in Forbes which makes me suspect, as an argument about why these things aren’t stimulative. Except that he’s actually saying that Sandy will boost the economy, but even though spending on recovery creates economic growth, the disaster “destroyed wealth” also so it’s all an illusion.
    Er, yes and so what?

    En route I was led to the broken windows fallacy:

    Theorists of the Austrian School frequently cite this fallacy and claim that it is a common element of popular thinking (e.g., the “Cash for Clunkers” program,[5] etc.).

    I’ll read more but so far, I’m less than convinced.

  128. 128
    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us? (formerly MarkJ) says:

    You went deep into the Camper Van Beethoven vault for the title of this post. Well done.

  129. 129
    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us? (formerly MarkJ) says:

    Also, should get a blog post title out of “A History of Utah” before Mitt Romney’s candidacy is history. Too. Speaking of Camper Van Beethoven.

  130. 130
    shortstop says:

    @LAC: Here you be!

    @Roger Moore: Am certain I’ll be accused of sycophancy toward the host, but I do find Cranky Old Cole to be adorable, actually. His particular brand of crankiness is one of this joint’s main attractions for me. I know; I need help.

  131. 131
    shortstop says:

    Lawsy, I’ve hit the moderlode. A much-loved vendor just sent me a “thanks for your business” package of chocolate donkeys and elephants. How lucky can one girl be?!

  132. 132
    muddy says:

    Cranky Blog Cole is a cranky old soul
    And a cranky old soul is he.
    He called for some posts
    And not for some trolls
    And called for his animals three.

  133. 133
    Drew says:

    @Roger Moore: Theoretically, Clinton could run for Congress, and be elected Speaker, and have the Veep and President both retire.

  134. 134
    Mike in NC says:

    Mittbot has TV ads here in Tampa using Pat Boone to scare the old folks with blatant
    Iies about Obama Medicare cuts. Does anybody under the age of 75 even know who that clown is?Also, too, hilarious radio spots that actually use Willard’s moronic charge about “the Navy is smaller than it was in 1916”.

  135. 135
    shortstop says:

    @Mike in NC: Hey! You’re not in North Carolina at all!

  136. 136
    Mike in NC says:

    @shortstop: Vacation

  137. 137
    shortstop says:

    @Mike in NC: Well, have fun, then!

  138. 138
    Tom says:

    You wish!

  139. 139
    mdblanche says:

    @Mike in NC: I think he sounds familiar. Isn’t he some heavy metal singer?

  140. 140
    redshirt says:

    Any and all CVB fans need to pick up their last album (out a couple years back). Awesome stuff – “New Roman Times”.

  141. 141
    Cornish Steel says:

    One day soon, it will all settle down…

  142. 142
    Bruce S says:

    Nate Silver is dependent on math. Makes him an automatic enemy of GOP. And, of course, know-nothing pundits whose bread and butter is bullshit.

  143. 143
    Bruce S says:

    Nate Silver is dependent on math. Makes him an automatic enemy of GOP. And, of course, know-nothing pundits whose bread and butter is bullshit.

Comments are closed.