Yes, most of the polls and the three most reliable poll aggregates show President Obama on track to a 300+ EV victory next Tuesday.
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
http://election.princeton.edu/
We’re going to keep the Senate. Truly, these are good times. Yay us. But it’s not over yet. Let’s run the score up on the bastards.
I don’t know shit about phone banking via cell phone, but many of you do. I know that’s DougJ’s bag, so maybe he’ll post something about it here shortly. Those of you who do should please put some information down in this thread.
Also, if you haven’t given before, or haven’t given a lot, consider donating a year of double mochachino half-caf lattes to our Act Blue account:
And down-ticket, here’s a link to the PEC High Leverage targets: https://secure.actblue.com/page/pec2012
And last, but absolutely not least, here’s a link to the American Red Cross, where you can donate cash, and not pull a Romney, to disaster relief. If you can’t afford money for this, donate blood.
Phud
Holding senate and presidency is “good times”? Gawd help us.
Chat Noir
Here in Illinois, I voted last Wednesday and the husband unit voted yesterday. It was good to vote for Barack Obama in his home state this time (we were in Michigan in 2008). I’m going to work a data entry shift on Tuesday at Obama for America’s Illinois HQ in Chicago. I donated as much $ as I could to Team O this year.
karl
“consider donating a year of double mochachino half-caf lattes”
Coffee-drinking elitists are destroying America.
Mark
My last call of the night to Nevada was ridiculous last night. 44-year old white male, small business owner. Registered Dem, but tells me he’s not too sure about Obama. He had the following complaints:
– Obamacare will mean that his kids won’t make a lot of money when they’re doctors
– Taxing millionaires is a bad idea because they create jobs
– We shouldn’t cut military spending because the military creates jobs
– Unemployment insurance is bad because people just cash their checks and sit on the couch and drink beer (same with welfare, etc)
– Food Aid to North Korea is bad because we shouldn’t be helping the North Koreans
– Romney will fix the deficit and debt in four years
– Didn’t real care about gay marriage but didn’t like that Obama changed his mind
I’m sure there was more. I started the call just before the call system times out (8:30 pm) and talked to him for 36 minutes in total. Thanks to this blog (I swear to god) I had an answer for everything. Eventually he said he was voting for Obama.
Of course, his closest early voting place was closed 11/1 and 11/2, the last two days of early voting. But he said he’s get out and vote.
amk
Why not the congress too ? Did the teabaggers win in ’10 with razor thin margins with poor dem turnout ? Why won’t these seats flip now ?
elmo
Still scared, but that’s just a genetic flaw. I’ll be scared until it’s over.
And speed the day, too, because this election has NOT been good for my emotional health. I live 2500 miles away from my brother, and I’m close to de-friending him on FB because of “Benghazi” bullshit posts.
In September of 2001, it was not only tasteless, and crass, but *unpatriotic* to criticize GWB on account of 9/11 intel failures. It was beyond the pale, suitable only for fringes and cranks. It was treated as beneath contempt.
And these people *dare* accuse the Obama admin of a coverup?
Violet
@elmo: Isn’t there a way to filter out posts on Facebook but not block people entirely? Like it would be okay to see their post on their kids Halloween costumes, but not okay to see a post on the election or Benghazi or whatever. Is that sort of filtering not available on Facebook? Seems like it would be really useful.
dmsilev
For some giggles, take a look at the Unskewed Polls prediction map. I’m pretty sure that hallucinogens of the potency required to produce that map aren’t legal. This is the icing on the cake:
Violet
@amk: More Democrats will vote but more Republicans will also vote. It’s a Presidential election so turnout is always higher.
Shabbazz
Put this in the archives to reference on Wed Nov 7. It could be evidence of Peak Wingnut:
http://www.examiner.com/article/the-bizarre-world-of-nate-silver-s-voodoo-political-predictions?cid=db_articles
Svensker
@elmo:
Are you me?
My 2500-mile-away-brother is doing the Benghazi crap dance, too.
Oy.
Also, I’m very happy that O seems to be doing well in the polls and momentum seems to be going his way but EVERYBODY, please, please, please GO KNOCK ON WOOD right now because you are tempting the gods by getting too confident and talking about it. Do not do this. I am married to a Greek and I know about this stuff. KNOCK ON WOOD…..NAOW!!! Then speak humbly.
Soonergrunt
@amk: It is exceedingly unlikely that we will flip the House.
In the unlikely event that happens I will find some very risque and rather humiliating way to publicly celebrate.
Democrat Partisan Asshole
@Violet: No, but the kinds of people who are posting shit about Benghazi post twenty of those for every pic of the kids, and if you really need to see the spawn that badly, you can just go directly to their profile and look at their pictures.
Since most of my FB peeps are lifelong friends, I already know their opinions, and shockingly, we’re all pretty much in agreement anyway. The ones that aren’t, and have decided to commit suicide by GOP, are blocked and I doubt I’m missing anything.
JR
I’m all for “running up the score,” but we’re not there yet. We’re a few days of bad weather from losing, and that’s what the story will be until the votes are counted.
Seriously, a few points in about eight or nine states go the other way, and we lose. That’s a GOTV margin. Don’t let anyone be lulled by the EV count. Run hard for five more days, get the lawyers on the ground (greetings from Florida!), and make this happen, because it won’t unless you do.
amk
@Soonergrunt: My feeling it’s still 50/50. So get ready for the act.
kd bart
@dmsilev:
I’m in Georgia. I’ll take Obama plus 21 points. He’ll beat that easiliy.
Comrade Mary
OMG THIS IS A GAMECHANGER!
THE ECONOMIST KINDA SORTA WITH A POUTY FACE ENDORSES OBAMA!
SUCK IT LIBS!
slag
@Mark: Nice!
Here’s the link to the online call tool: https://call.barackobama.com/
I’ve used it in 2008 and am slacking until this weekend but will be using it again this year. It makes the whole process pretty easy.
elmo
@Svensker:
Knocking on wood doesn’t help. You have to go outside, turn around three times, and spit.
Go.
Democrat Partisan Asshole
@dmsilev: I’m tempted to do a WHOIS lookup on them, because I’m 90% sure I’m going to find the owner is one DougJ.
Mr Stagger Lee
I would like to know how the house races are doing? Is it close? My district is the new 10th congressional district(WA) more likely it will be Democratic Seat (Denny Heck), the nearby 6th home of the retiring Norm Dicks (D-military Industrial Complex) will likely stay Democratic also, despite the millionaire candidate who is trying to convince everybody he is not Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock or John Koster.
Elie
@Democrat Partisan Asshole:
Just curious but why were they your friends to begin with?
I have some really long term friends who are politically way more conservative (to put it more euphemistically). We fight sometimes but like family, we just know this is an aread we don’t agree on — though we do try to convert each other from time to time. I would hate to lose their friendship after a lifetime. Like I said — like family — my own which I usually have had to overlook a few things to get along with them…
Gretchen
@Soonergrunt: I’m looking forward to that demonstration
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
The current Busken Cookie Poll currently stands at 12,423 – 10,803, advantage Obama. I watch it closely.
Brachiator
My mother and sister, back in Texas, did the early vote thing over the weekend.
I’ll have to wait until election day (and am taking the day off so I can vote early comfortably), but am soooo looking forward to it. Don’t know if I will go to a party to watch the results, or watch a movie, get drunk, and go to bed early.
And as a reminder, the spirit of Frank Tanabe reminds everyone that there is no freaking excuse for not voting.
WWII vet dies at 93 after casting last ballot in Hawaii
Schlemizel
made a couple hundred calls into Wisconsin for POTUS over the last couple of weeks. But, as I posted before I am bone tired. Most of the calls ended OK. I got yelled at by a small handful because they are getting a lot of calls (can’t say I blame them). Ran into an equal number of morans and they have sucked the life out of me. They didn’t have any numbers for me yesterday and I am glad.
I wouldn’t mind if the inflamed assholes and brain dead shit piles took the whole country down the toilet except it means they are taking us down with them. FUck them all sideways with a rusty ford pickup truck.
FSM – blessed be His name – be praised I believe we will hold the WH, add a couple of seats in the Senate and greatly narrow the lead in the House. It will have to be good enough for now
gogol's wife
@Svensker:
And for the Russians in the house,
не сглазить, тфу, тфу, тфу
Schlemizel
@Brachiator:
If he lived here in Minnesota his ballot would have to be thrown out. The SoS says election officials comb the obits every week before election day & toss dead voters absentee ballots
Mike Lamb
@dmsilev: Are there people other than the creepy looking dude that runs that site that truly believe his predictions?
nellcote
Will “experimental” election software patches affect the Ohio vote?
Why did the Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted’s office, in an end run around Ohio election law, have “experimental” software patches installed on vote counting tabulators in up to 39 Ohio counties? Voting rights activists are concerned that these uncertified and untested software patches may alter the election results.[…]
catclub
@Violet: “Seems like it would be really useful.”
This is what Unix people hate about the rest of the world.
The need to re-invent something that has already been done in Unix (also in DEC, but I’m trying to stay in this century), or in Pine,
or in Usenet readers.
If having useful filters does not help make money for FB, it is not happening in FB. Next thing you’ll be asking for ad blocking.
catclub
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): I liked the 7-11 coffee cup poll. Obama was winning Utah!, since Mormons don’t drink coffee.
Brachiator
Maybe it’s been posted up before, but I can’t think of a better tribute to those in NYC who have recently endured so much.
New York State Of Mind
Billy Joel, from 1978
And some amazing photos here, The Ultimate Gallery of Flooded NYC and NJ
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@catclub:
I’ve been waiting over 10 years for discussion group webcode that has half the speed and features of the old NNTP/USENET readers. (I used to use trn but I’d be happy with rn).
It will never happen. USENET was optimized for the low-bandwidth networks and slow end-user machines of the day. But now, if it’s on the web, then by definition it’s all about the ad-clicks. Your time just isn’t that precious anymore, and it’s no longer considered a sin to push multi-megs of data over the pipe just because you hit ‘reload’
(Geek out.)
Soonergrunt
@Gretchen: I didn’t say that I would actually post it.
hep kitty
Romney supporter: Keep the federal gubmint out of my life!
Sandy: Well hi there! Please enjoy my stellar efforts to provide you with an excellent opportunity to demonstrate how very much you do not need the federal government in your life! Bask in the “liberty” to sit in your living room in several inches of water with no power for an indeterminate period of time! I’m especially proud of those downed trees in your backyard and the hole in your roof!
You’re welcome.
Persia
I’m volunteering with GOTV on Saturday for the first time. I’m pretty excited!
The Red Pen
One thing I love about Freepers is their anecdotes. They actually believe they sound realistic. Example:
And the the Obama supporter rode off on his unicorn!
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
David Frum, Principled Centrist, will vote Romney.
This delicious tidbit:
So, vote Mitt “I will repeal Obamacare on the first day!” Romney, because He Doesn’t Really Mean What He Says.
Riiiiiiight.
Yurpean
Paging DougJ!
The Economist has endorsed the President, however in the course of their endorsement they include the two sentences:
See, both sides are to blame.
Jay C
@Comrade Mary:
Wow, that’s cold. Cold and harsh.
GOOD!!
dww44
Soonergrunt, this is why your posts always always make me feel so upbeat. And from a Red State resident, too from a Red State resident as well.
Thanks for the winning attitude.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@Yurpean:
Don’t laugh: Insufficient Golf-Schmooze Time is considered a serious offense among the Investor Class.
Careers have been destroyed by lack of golf.
JustAnotherBob
@Schlemizel:
I suspect that favors Democrats. Oldest folks skew Republican, do they not?
And then there’s the “Hold my beer and watch this!!” voters….
LD50
Are there any polls about whether Ryan might lose his Congressional seat in Wisconsin? That would be unimaginably sweet.
Brachiator
@Yurpean:
No, it is that Obama may not be a good political tactician. Many politicians are like little kids. They like to be given little toys for their co-operation. Even Gramps McCain hinted that he might have been more helpful had Obama schmoozed him more with stuff like an invite to the White House.
People talk about LBJ as being a strong political operator. But he didn’t just strong arm friends and opponents. He used every trick in the book, from flattery to threats.
@JustAnotherBob:
RE: The SoS says election officials comb the obits every week before election day & toss dead voters absentee ballots
No. Not in every state or district. And people don’t only die from old age.
Grumpy Code Monkey
@Soonergrunt:
The one reason I want the GOP to hold the House is to see what happens to Boehner, and just how many times he gets knifed in the back by Cantor.
That would be some popcorn-worthy entertainment right there.
Soonergrunt
@dww44: Thanks!
@Grumpy Code Monkey: And you know that’s exactly what will happen.
Cris (without an H)
Ha ha, that’s awesome. I bet that freeper really did have that conversation, but just didn’t realize he was being trolled like a motherfucker.
blingee
We haven’t won ANYTHING yet. We do not know if we are going to keep the senate. Iran could pull some stunt in the next few days to provoke a war and then the neocons (and therefore Rmoney) wins.
Talk of us winning or it’s in the bag yada yada is stupid. That got us into trouble when everyone was already high fiving themselves before the 1st debate.
Then again no surprise from “hey here is another piece of crap to install on your computer to save you 1 mouse click” sonnergrunt.
NonyNony
@The Red Pen:
That might be my fault. I was totally mocking a freeper colleague the other day and I said something like that. Well not exactly like that – that last sentence wasn’t there. And I think I actually through the words “Kenyan” and “Socialist” in there as well.
So probably not me. But quite likely another smartass messing with an idiot.
Liberty60
Go here:
https://call.barackobama.com/campaigns/NV2324
Seriously- you can make calls to undecided voters, right from your cell phone at home. Easy peasy, and you will help sealthe deal.
We can still lose this, if we don’t keep pushing the pedal to the metal.
The Red Pen
@NonyNony:
You never know. You might be secretly famous on Free Republic.
EconWatcher
@Comrade Mary: ‘
I’m pleasantly surprised that The Economist endorsed Obama (even tepidly). They tend to be contrarian (Dole in 1996, Bush in 2000, Kerry in 2004).
TaMara (BHF)
@elmo: Until after the election, you can hide your brother’s posts. On his next post, there’s a little down button in the top right hand corner, open it and it will ask you if you want to hide this post, hide all posts by this person, or report as spam.
After the election you can go in unhide his posts. Otherwise, just hide them and go to his profile page and look at what you want, ignore the rest.
At least they won’t be in your feed anymore.
catclub
@Jay C: C’mon Scientists do that too. Haven’t you seen that Cartoon that has “… then a miracle occurs.”
Also, underpants gnomes.
Also, ???, profit!
ruemara
@Brachiator: He did do this. They chose to never attend or spurn invites. Is there a short term memory issue with Americans?
Tripod
@amk:
They grabbed a bunch of state leges in 2010 and controlled redistricting. It’s a tough pull.
Brachiator
@ruemara:
No, McCain whined that Obama didn’t woo him enough.
I think that Olympia Snowe made similar complaints.
And the point here is not that Obama had to follow McCain’s advice. But the suggestion here is that Obama does not use one of the perks of the presidency to stroke the egos of Congresscritters. Yeah, this stuff is childish. But that’s part of the game of politics.
And again, LBJ and others were adept at this.
Bill Arnold
xkcd had an awesome giant chart about the partisan makeup of congress yesterday. (I haven’t digested it yet.)
proterozoic
Mitch McConnell won his current term in 2008 by 6 points. He’s up in 2014.
I don’t know what McConnell’s new #1 priority is going to be if Obama’s reelected… but I know the Dems are going to gun for his hide.