And The Rejoicing Has Begun

For with a week to go, The Most Wrong Man In America is predicting a Romney landslide.  And he actually used the term “landslide”.

Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.

You have to love his awesome little bubble of unreality.

Or will the Romney momentum grow and wash into formerly safe Democratic territory in New Jersey and Oregon?

Nice choice of phrase, Dick.  And sure, Romney will get 350 EVs because ARGLE AND THE BLARGLE.  Even better, he’s calling for the GOP to pick up six Senate seats in the wake of Romney’s long, long coattails.

I mean, why wouldn’t we give Morris the benefit of the doubt over Nate Silver or this empty can of Diet Coke with Lime?  Morris has a long, long track record of being completely full of garbage.  But it’s a long track record, so Nate Silver is a wimp because SHUT UP LIBTARDS.

So yes, now that Toesucker here has called it for Romney, President Obama is spiking that there football.

 

 

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143 replies
  1. 1
    dmsilev says:

    For with a week to go, The Most Wrong Man In America is predicting a Romney landslide.

    Objection! Bill Kristol has a lifetime lock on that title.

  2. 2
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him.

    Wow, that is some powerful shit that Morris is smoking. I hope the DEA is paying attention.

  3. 3
    geg6 says:

    Well, that seals the deal. There are only two other people in all of politics who are wrong as often as Dick Morris, Mark Halperin and Bill Kristol. Haven’t heard anything about Kristol, but Halperin is pimping a big Mittens win, too. So, Obama wins in a landslide. ;-)

  4. 4
    Taylormattd says:

    Man, I made the wrong career choice. Why am I not writing this type of bland fiction for wingnut half-wits?

  5. 5
    Dave says:

    There is a part of me that looks at hacks like Dick Morris, or Jennifer Rubin, and is tempted to see just what kind of job I could get if I just spouted off inane GOP-centric bullshit with a veneer of civilization. A thin veneer, of course.

    Sure I’d be selling my soul to the devil, but the pay is apparently fantastic.

  6. 6
    Schlemizel says:

    @dmsilev:

    Damn! you got there before me!

    Mr. Kristol is holding on line 2 – he is pissed off about your taking a title he has worked his whole career to own & giving it to some dickie come lately with a foot fetish

  7. 7
    Mark B. says:

    Romney has run the most dishonest campaign I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been able to vote since Carter won in 1976. The only people who are going to vote for him are people with broken bullshit detectors, which is a good 47% of Americans. A lot of people, but not quite enough for him to execute his plan of sucking the life out of America and leaving a dry husk for the rest of us.

  8. 8
    Mark B. says:

    Dick Morris is the Baghdad Bob of the Romney campaign.

  9. 9
    PreservedKillick says:

    @Mark B.:

    Romney has run the most dishonest campaign I’ve ever seen

    Mitt Romney is like New England weather. If you don’t like what you have right now, wait a few minutes and it’ll change.

    That he is running even close, anywhere, is deeply discouraging. He shouldn’t pass even the most minimal bullshit screen.

  10. 10
    Schlemizel says:

    @Dave:

    I dabbled in magic as a kid & was fascinated by mentalist acts. The first time I saw a faith healer I thought “Shit, I can do those tricks easy!”

    There have been many days since as I drag my ass to work in the morning when I question why I didn’t. I think the money is so good I probably could by my souls silence.

    These guys are no better than Peter Popoff or Benny Hinn – all of them praying that there really is no God & certainly no hell

  11. 11
    FlipYrWhig says:

    Nobody, but nobody, “likes” Mitt Romney. The threshold he managed to cross in the first debate was “neither a monster nor a nincompoop,” and that was enough to yank him back from the brink of a shattering defeat — towards the narrower defeat that was always predicted.

  12. 12
    peach flavored shampoo says:

    Will The Dick apologize for being so wrong, come Nov. 7th? I didn’t think so.

  13. 13
    Princess says:

    You can tell Obama is winning because:

    a) Christie slagging Romney all over the news
    b)Pool reporters mocking Romney’s “relief drive” on twitter — they know they won’t need access after next Tuesday.
    c) Romney spending all day in Florida today. If even Florida still needs that kind of hand-holding at this point, he’s toast.

    “Winning” is not the same thing as “has won” of course. But I know who I’d rather be.

  14. 14
    David says:

    There’s nothing funnier than the way Wingnuts equate over-the-top propaganda with sophisticated mathematics.

  15. 15
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Mark B.:

    The Rmoney bullshit does not matter to many of them who will vote for him.

    The only thing that matters is he is NOT that ni*CLANG*. The bullshit is totally beside the point.

  16. 16
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @PreservedKillick: He doesn’t. The people voting for him don’t give a shit. They just want Obama gone. So this time they’re saying “successful turnaround guy” instead of “plain-spoken war hero” or “fun-loving shitkicker.” It has nothing to do with Romney qua Romney. He’s horrible, and everyone knows it, which is why they spent a year trying and failing to drum up someone better.

  17. 17
    thalarctos says:

    Well, here in Massachusetts, we’ve had much more than 90 minutes to get to know Mitt Romney. He couldn’t get elected dogcatcher here. (according to recent polls, Obama will take the state by a 30 point margin)

  18. 18
    General Stuck says:

    Right wing bloggers have become nothing much more than street corner preachers predicting the future of this election. Running on shear faith within an echo chamber of fine acoustics.

  19. 19
    gnomedad says:

    Is this just a grotesque pep rally or is he really that stupid? Where’s the upside of doing this a week before the election? Rmoney could still win, but no way does he get a landslide. It’s like ten minutes till dawn and he’s betting against the sunrise.

  20. 20
    kindness says:

    God The Hill is worse than Politico and that isn’t an easy thing to do.

  21. 21
    Robin G. says:

    These people are literally too stupid to insult.

  22. 22
    Lurking Canadian says:

    Slightly OT, but I’m here at the car dealership waiting for them to fix up my car and they’ve got the TV tuned to CNN.

    So far I have learned that Romney has 100 surrogates out stumping for him, and I got to see a nauseating ad by something called the “America Deserves Better PAC/Tea Party Express”. How do people subject themselves to this bullshit every morning.

    Oh, now it’s about how Christie, a “prominent Romney surrogate”, “raised eyebrows” by praising the president.

    I’m beginning to wish I had decided to wait out in the rain instead of this warm, dry and obnoxious waking room.

  23. 23
    The Moar You Know says:

    I’ve got a 1958 penny in my desk drawer that calls elections with far more accuracy than Toesucker Morris.

  24. 24
    Face says:

    He shouldn’t pass even the most minimal bullshit screen.

    Fox Noobs has demonstrated that there’s a whole shit ton of Americans without a bullshit detector. In fact, in order to watch more than 5 minutes, you have to disable any detector, lest it explode within the hour.

    It’s gunna be sweet Jeebus tears to watch Fox on November 7th. The wailing, spittle, and genuine surprise at the loss will be comedy gold.

  25. 25
    Enhanced Voting techniques says:

    I think I get it now; the right looking to create the myth of a stolen election for their vote suppression. Even works if Mittens wins because they can to themselves the TRUE vote was a landslide until Chicago thugs and unions fixed it.

  26. 26
    Odie Hugh Manatee says:

    Oregon is not going to go for Rmoney, that’s for damned sure.

    @Mark B.:

    If lying was dying, Mitt would be nothing but a skeleton and dust.

  27. 27
    RedCon says:

    How did he ever run a successful presidential campaign if he’s so stupid?

  28. 28
    The Moar You Know says:

    There is a part of me that looks at hacks like Dick Morris, or Jennifer Rubin, and is tempted to see just what kind of job I could get if I just spouted off inane GOP-centric bullshit with a veneer of civilization.

    @Dave: Look no further than our pet, “Political Observer” or whatever today’s name is. That’s the entry level position right there.

    I have a feeling it doesn’t pay very much.

  29. 29
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Lurking Canadian: Every morning? Pfft. You grievously underestimate. In Virginia, that’s what every commercial break looks like all damn day on every damn channel.

  30. 30
    Cacti says:

    You can trust the toe sucker. He’s not wispy or effeminate.

    Well…he’s not wispy anyway.

  31. 31
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Enhanced Voting techniques: The thing they’re going to latch onto is the Latino vote. Just you watch. It’ll go from “Obama overperformed the polling because pollsters didn’t sample enough Spanish-speakers” to “Obama only won because legions of illegals swamped the polls with fraud and Holder didn’t stop it.”

  32. 32
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Cacti: Dick Morris makes Harvey Fierstein look like a bear.

  33. 33
  34. 34
    Cacti says:

    On the same day as toe sucker makes his glorious prediction…

    Princeton Election Consortium’s meta margin for Obama increases to +2.6%, and the electoral vote spread increases to Obama 318, Willard 220.

    But Sam Wang’s a math fag, so what does he know?

  35. 35
    RedCon says:

    Big lead from this morning? Ohio is becoming increasingly irrelevant thanks to an expanding map in PA MI and MN, and even if Obambi is dragged over the finish line by the MSM and “rally round the flag” effect from Sandy the popular vote is out of reach. A split decision will make it impossible for him to govern.

  36. 36
    gnomedad says:

    Hah! The shapeshifter is hedging his bets.

  37. 37
    Soonergrunt says:

    @Lurking Canadian: Forget it Jake. It’s CNN.

    No really. CNN has been desperately trying to be FOX News light for the last several years. They stink on ice.

  38. 38
    Cacti says:

    @RedCon:

    Hey everybody!

    It has another new handle!

    Dance for us, little monkey. Earn those nickels.

  39. 39
    shortstop says:

    I thought toe sucking a hooker was a pretty humiliating moment. Had no idea at the time that it’d eventually be seen as one of Morris’ most dignified accomplishments.

  40. 40
    Herbal Infusion Bagger says:

    @The Moar You Know: “@Dave: Look no further than our pet, “Political Observer” or whatever today’s name is. That’s the entry level position right there.
    I have a feeling it doesn’t pay very much.”

    Nah, I’d reckon he’s pulling down at least $40 an hour, so the firm he’s working for can justify billing him out at $120/hour as a “Senior Social Media Consultant”.

    All evidence is that the metric cubic fuckton of money on the Right-wing has been poorly spent, with poor ad buys, ill-targeted voter drives and communications, and good old fashioned grifting. So I’m hoping our friend has benefitted from the right wing billionaires who’re going to wake up on Nov 7th and find they wasted their money.

  41. 41
    MikeBoyScout says:

    Deep Thought;

    Who is more stupid?
    Dick Morris?
    The people who read or listen to Dick Morris?
    The people who pay Dick Morris?

  42. 42
    giltay says:

    A tweet from @ericatwiley sums it up:

    Prediction: polls don’t change much and Obama wins. Republicans remember this for decades as Mitt having momentum and a hurricane ending it.

  43. 43
    Strandedvandal says:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ PBO’s lead is expanding everywhere.

  44. 44
    Hoodie says:

    @FlipYrWhig: I don’t think that will be the tactic, except maybe on the margins. They don’t want to further alienate Latinos. Romney will take the fall, because that’s what Republicans do — they ritually sacrifice their losers as failures of faithfulness to the cause, only to later rehabilitate them. The wingers will be allowed to save face by blaming his loss on a lack of “principles.” Paves the way for the next Villager-approved Republican, like Jeb or Christie, both of whom “everyone” knows are men of principle. The Bobo columns write themselves. Remember, Romney started out as the original Villager-approved Republican.

  45. 45
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @RedCon:

    The stupid. It burns.

    Could our pet troll be Dick Morris?

  46. 46
    Soonergrunt says:

    @gnomedad: Still better than Katrina. By this time after the storm, the cops from one municipality were murdering refugees, bullshit stories about people shooting at rescue helicopters were all over the news, the NOPD had collapsed, and the National Guard and FEMA were still standing around with their (our) thumbs up their (our) asses.

  47. 47
    Chyron HR says:

    @RedCon:

    DEMOCRATS WINNING ELECTIONS DOESN’T COUNT MOMMY MAKE THEM STOP WINNING WAAAH

    The sad thing is, the simple fact that you’ve admitted Romney’s not going to win in a landslide makes you the smartest man in the GOP.

  48. 48
    GregB says:

    I pretty sure repeated exposure to the chemicals in Dr. Scholl’s products is bringing on premature dementia with old Dick.

  49. 49
    Janastas359 says:

    Alright, I know that he was just making everything up off the top of his head, but really? The GOP should entertain dreams of winning senate races in New Jersey and Rhode Island?

    New Jersey: Dem up 20ish points.
    Rhode Island: Dem up 25ish points.

    Whenever I hear Bill Kristol or Morris talk about the drubbing I’m going to take in this election, I get more and more confident.

  50. 50
    gnomedad says:

    @Soonergrunt:

    Still better than Katrina.

    Only because they’re not in charge; they can only sit on the sidelines and fling poo.

  51. 51
    Lurking Canadian says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: I think it’s posting through a wormhole from an alternate reality. That’s the only way its poll numbers make sense.

    CNN update: Now they’ve got some Rep asshole on saying it’s a good thing Romney’s ignoring questions about FEMA. Pleasant surprise: the talking head is actually asking him questions.

  52. 52
    scav says:

    1) Will Willard take the fall or have it forced on him? He’s certinly not being gracious to other big money men (in the auto industry) in his mad quixotic tilting at OMG automotive jobs to china spinmill.
    2) I took a solid moment’s worth of pleasure in seeing the little white states on PEC’s map reappear.

  53. 53
    Michael says:

    It’s becoming clear that Romentum is real: Romney has downward momentum.

    Loving it.

    NYT/CBS: Obama up 5 points in Ohio, 2 points in Virginia, and 1 point in Florida.
    Franklin & Marshall College: Obama up 4 points in Pennsylvania.
    PPP: Obama up by 5 in Wisconsin and in Iowa.

  54. 54
    Jerzy Russian says:

    Two things:

    Can’t someone kick Morris in the junk? Is there a company that provides this service?

    Instead of saying “what a dick” or “go eat a bag of dicks” can we say “what a Morris” or “go eat a bag of Morrises”? We would have to agree on how to spell the plural of “morris”, but apart from that I don’t see any major obstacles.

  55. 55
    Odie Hugh Manatee says:

    @Cacti:

    Can I throw shit at the monkey? He seems to thrive on it anyway.

  56. 56
    Left Coast Tom says:

    Two years ago Morris was predicting a GOP Senate, including a Sharon Angle win in NV.

    If he were ever right about something Fox “News” would have to quit paying him.

  57. 57
    joes527 says:

    @RedCon:

    A split decision will make it impossible for him to govern.

    The fact that you would see this outcome as a victory tells us everything we need to know.

  58. 58
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @scav:

    The “OvenMitt wasn’t “conservative” enough” meme is already getting fired up for the cacophony of bawling that we’ll be subjected to this time next week.

    OvenMitt is DONE as a politician. He should pray he’s retired to obscurity, but I think he’s got a long future of legal hassles before him, as he’s called to account for his many wrongs and crimes.

  59. 59
    GxB says:

    @shortstop: Nickels?! They’re getting robbed…

  60. 60
    scav says:

    This RedCon retcon moment brought to you by our fine sponsors at …

  61. 61
    SenyorDave says:

    @shortstop: I thought toe sucking a hooker was a pretty humiliating moment. Had no idea at the time that it’d eventually be seen as one of Morris’ most dignified accomplishments.

    The winner!

  62. 62
    GxB says:

    @shortstop: Nickels?! They’re getting robbed…

  63. 63
    GxB says:

    @shortstop: Nickels?! They’re getting robbed…

  64. 64
    Jerzy Russian says:

    @gnomedad: Here is another one (e.g. Rep. King) who needs kicking in the junk. Perhaps we can invest in a fleet of robots that are programmed to find people like this and issue the junk-kicking. They also be programmed to go after College Republicans and people who run their SUVs in their driveways on Earth Day. These robots could charge themselves on solar powered charging stations to minimize their carbon footprints.

  65. 65
    Jerzy Russian says:

    @gnomedad: Here is another one (e.g. Rep. King) who needs kicking in the junk. Perhaps we can invest in a fleet of robots that are programmed to find people like this and issue the junk-kicking. They also be programmed to go after College Republicans and people who run their SUVs in their driveways on Earth Day. These robots could charge themselves on solar powered charging stations to minimize their carbon footprints.

  66. 66
    Ash Can says:

    OMG, those excerpts are genuinely hilarious. I have a little tinge of guilt laughing at them, though. They’re so far out there that they make me think that something’s fucked inside this guy’s head, and it’s really not right to laugh at people who can’t help it.

  67. 67
    Jerzy Russian says:

    @gnomedad: Here is another one (e.g. Rep. King) who needs kicking in the junk. Perhaps we can invest in a fleet of robots that are programmed to find people like this and issue the junk-kicking. They also be programmed to go after College Republicans and people who run their SUVs in their driveways on Earth Day. These robots could charge themselves on solar powered charging stations to minimize their carbon footprints.

  68. 68
    Mike in NC says:

    Reminds me of reading another brain-dead wingnut — Cal Thomas — who predicted America would fall in love with Sarah Fucking Palin.

  69. 69
    Ash Can says:

    OMG, those excerpts are genuinely hilarious. I have a little tinge of guilt laughing at them, though. They’re so far out there that they make me think that something’s fucked inside this guy’s head, and it’s really not right to laugh at people who can’t help it.

  70. 70
    Mike in NC says:

    Reminds me of reading another brain-dead wingnut — Cal Thomas — who predicted America would fall in love with Sarah Fucking Palin.

  71. 71
    Patricia Kayden says:

    @thalarctos: Preach!

    The fact that Romney probably won’t win Michigan where he was born or Massachusetts where he was governor should be a hint to the rest of the country.

  72. 72
    scav says:

    @Ash Can: Context is all. If they’re sitting on a bus or on streetcorner shouting at the pigeons: stifle. If they’re on the TV set yelling at same (esp for lucre), holding back might be harmful to your health.

  73. 73
    geg6 says:

    @RedCon:

    You really are reaching, you know. If Mittens and Co. think PA, MI, and MN, that’s where they’d be instead of in FL for three events today. The fact that they have to spend so much time in FL is, in itself, a sign of their desperation.

  74. 74
    Mike in NC says:

    @RedCon: So you didn’t care for the previous handle that rhymed with Erection Swallower?

  75. 75
    Ash Can says:

    All together, now: FYWP.

  76. 76
    Amir Khalid says:

    @Cacti:
    Well, it’s about time! It kept the last nym for two whole days. That was just slacking off.

  77. 77
    GxB says:

    Sigh…

    @GxB: Duplicate comment detected; it looks as though you’ve already said that! – No shit WP, howza bouta edit you dick…

    Obviously my original comment should have referenced Cacti one response above shortstop.

  78. 78
    geg6 says:

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Add CA to the list of places where Mittens lives and won’t win. Oh, and NH is probably going to be another.

  79. 79
    Quincy says:

    @RedCon: A Republican Congress will make it impossible for him to govern. The margin of victory is irrelevant. As long as Republicans hold some degree of power, the country will not function properly.

  80. 80
    Enhanced Mooching Techniques says:

    @RedCon: Dude; pick a handle and stick to it. It’s not not like we don’t know your writing “voice” by now. This isn’t 4/Chan newb.

  81. 81
    The Moar You Know says:

    PBO’s lead is expanding everywhere.

    @Strandedvandal: Well, it turns out that Team Romney, the one supposedly with a titan of business intelligence at the helm, never had a ground plan. At all. They left it to the RNC, and the RNC thought Team Romney had it covered.

    There was also some half-assed bullshit about Mormons doing the GOTV, but most states don’t have enough of the white shirt and tie brigade to do anything but the most cursory of efforts.

    Obama is crushing Romney in early turnout. This election is going to be a rout, big Obama win. I think Nate Silver’s been far too conservative this cycle, and the finals are going to look more like what PEC has been predicting than 538.

  82. 82
    TR says:

    You people need to be nicer to RedCon.

    It’s rude to mock the mentally handicapped.

  83. 83
    scav says:

    poor retcon, hoping and wishing in the pumpkin patsh for the great muse of fore to appear

    O, pardon! since a crooked figure may
    Attest in little place a million;
    And let us, ciphers to this great accompt,
    On your imaginary forces work.

    Piece out our imperfections with your thoughts;
    Into a thousand parts divide one man,
    And make imaginary puissance;
    Think when we talk of horses, that you see them
    Printing their proud hoofs i’ the receiving earth;
    For ’tis your thoughts that now must deck our kings,

  84. 84
    scav says:

    @scav: yeah, FYWP. Patch and fire. and edit priviledges, please!
    eta, and a coffee! so NOW YOU START WORKING . . . GRRRR

  85. 85
    Joel says:

    On a related note, strong polling for Obama in Iowa with a +5 from PPP today, coming on the heels of a recent +4 from Gravis (R-house leaning). The Princeton Election Commission meta-margin moved up to +2.6 which is good enough for a 95-99% likelihood of O victory.

  86. 86
    Paul says:

    But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.

    Speak for yourself, Mr Morris.

    Mr Romney still hasn’t released his tax returns. Why the hell should he be above the rules that every presidential candidate has followed over the last 40 years?

    And what about the lying, Mr Morris? It is so easy to disprove whatever the lying Mormon is saying, for example the Jeep story.

    Would you want a President who has such an easy time for lying? Yes, the man is a monster.

  87. 87
    joes527 says:

    @geg6: Dude! California is _totally_ in play. The Townhall web poll has it going red.

  88. 88
    Alex S. says:

    A landslide??? Fuck, it will be an UNANIMOUS VICTORY for Mitt “Reagan” Romney! I won’t vote for Obama so NOONE will!

  89. 89
    Ash Can says:

    @Enhanced Mooching Techniques: What’s the diff? As William Shakespeare once wrote,

    “What’s in a name? That which we call a turd
    By any other name would smell as bad.”

    Or something like that.

  90. 90
    Napoleon says:

    @Joel:

    The Princeton Election Commission meta-margin moved up to +2.6 which is good enough for a 95-99% likelihood of O victory.

    That % is laughable. Only a fucking moron thinks that % has any connection to reality.

  91. 91
    Enhanced Mooching Techniques says:

    @FlipYrWhig: Or what ever the enemy at the moment is; women, union members, climate scientists.

    The think I am curious about who is the first pundit to blink? After all they don’t want to be known as “that liar” come November the 7th.

  92. 92
    pk says:

    @RedCon:

    I don’t remember a split decision making it hard for Bush to govern. BTW you’re an idiot.

  93. 93
    kc says:

    Has Bill Kristol predicted a Romney victory yet? Cause that would really seal Romney’s fate.

  94. 94
    cckids says:

    @TR:

    It’s rude to mock the mentally handicapped.

    Hey,hey,hey. There is no need to insult the mentally handicapped by comparing them to whateveritsnameistoday. They aren’t mensa members, but they are invariably kind & sweet. And MUCH more tuned in to reality.

  95. 95
    Enhanced Mooching Techniques says:

    @Napoleon: While I know you rigthies have problems with Teh Science this really is so simple that even a Conservatard could understand it Nappy. It’s all about the electoral votes and the aggregate numbers of the polling. Yesafter all it’s not impossible for majority of the polls to be wrong. ; Infact ether Gallop or the rest of the polls will be wrong come November 11th. But was it isn’t is Wang and Silverman lying.

    Pro-Tip it’s make your conclusions from the information you collect. Not collect information that supports your conclusions.

  96. 96
    Chyron HR says:

    @Napoleon:

    I can’t wait for next Wednesday, when the odds of an Obama win will have gone up to 100%, and you’ll still be whining that it can’t POSSIBLY be that high because of the DEMOGRAPHICS…

  97. 97
    Paul says:

    @RedCon:

    Ohio is becoming increasingly irrelevant thanks to an expanding map in PA MI and MN, and even if Obambi is dragged over the finish line by the MSM and “rally round the flag” effect from Sandy the popular vote is out of reach. A split decision will make it impossible for him to govern.

    Who is Obambi? I assume you don’t mean the President of the United States as only some people in foreign countries are that rude to our President.

    By the way regarding your “A split decision will make it impossible for him to govern,

    Of course it won’t. Have you read the constitution lately? You know the document that people like you pretend to like so much. Perhaps you should actually read it sometime. It says NOTHING about a split decision making it impossible to govern.

    I am expecting Obama to govern the same damn way that Bush governed when he won a split decision, ie govern as if he won 100% of the vote. People like you had no problem with it then, so why would you have a problem when the shoe is on the other foot???

  98. 98
    Joel says:

    @Napoleon: we’ve been through this before. Wang’s too certain? Silver’s too uncertain? Hard to say from where I sit, but the CW seems to favor uncertainty even if its not called for.

  99. 99
    Napoleon says:

    @Enhanced Mooching Techniques:

    Its not the lean he is showing its the % which is laughable. By the way, he does not use all polls only state polls which have only week reasons to believe are better then national polls. Silver factors in the national polls and is coming up with a more reasonable sounding 77%.

    @Chyron HR:

    Hey fuck you buddy. All along I have thought O is leading and I expect that to be the state of affairs a week from now as well.

    People like you are just as clueless as Political Observer.

  100. 100
    Napoleon says:

    @Joel:

    Well we can agree that the CW that is too close to call is BS, and I think Intrade and like sites are too low. It is somewhere inbetween them and Wang, were I don’t know.

  101. 101
    hep kitty says:

    I’ve read that swallowing too many toenails can affect one’s cognitive abilities.

  102. 102
    Ash Can says:

    RedCon translated: “Like the meme says, everyone chill the fuck out; Obama’s got this. Now get your asses out on the stump and get the damn House flipped back, or his agenda will be toast, people.”

  103. 103
    Tara the Antisocial Social Worker says:

    99 comments and nobody’s said it yet?

    This is good news for John McCain!

    Slackers.

  104. 104
    Bulworth says:

    But once we all at Faux News met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we at Faux News got to know him — and to like him.

    Fxd

  105. 105
    Michael says:

    @Napoleon: Actually, even Silver acknowledges that states polls are historically more reliable than national polls. He just doesn’t completely ignore national polls, whereas Wang does.

    There are 2 main assumptions that go into Wang’s analysis:

    (1) The median of the set of most recent polls from a given state gives you an accurate picture of actual voter preferences in that state

    (2) Presidential races do not show substantial movement in their last 3 weeks, 2 weeks, or (now) 6 days

    All poll aggregators agree right now that aggregate state level polling shows Obama leading right now. Silver, Linzer, HuffPo’s pollster, etc. The only questions are whether or not there is some systemic error such that what the polls show actually diverges from reality, or whether Romney can make up enough ground in 6 days to close the gap.

    To the extent you have any problems with Wang’s results, you need to explain why (a) you think there’s a better than 2% change the state-level polls are systemically underrating Mitt Romney’s support by a significant-enough margin to switch the electoral outcome (i.e. by 2-3 points) , or (b) explain why you think there’s a greater than 2% chance Romney can make up ~2-3% nationally in the next 6 days.

    If you can’t make either of those cases, than STFU with your dismissive “that simply CAN’T be true but I don’t get math or his model” rants

  106. 106
    Bulworth says:

    Obama he was not the monster we at Faux News Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom the country we could vote.

    These edits to Dicky’s comments just write themselves.

  107. 107
    catclub says:

    @Napoleon: “I think Intrade and like sites are too low.”

    If you believe it, you can make some money.

  108. 108
    Argive says:

    @Napoleon:

    I definitely agree that it sounds too high. But Sam Wang’s formula is readily available on PEC. He’s never been shy about revealing his methods, which proved incredibly accurate the last two presidential elections.

    As a baseball fan, this whole kerfluffle is reminiscent of when sabermetrics were introduced into the sport. Thousands of old-school baseball hardliners yelling, “Stop! I can’t take these numbers, they’re ruining the game! Statistics don’t tell you about heart, or clubhouse presence!” Guess who won that battle? The nerds.

    ETA: Michael @ 105 said it better than me.

  109. 109
    Xecky Gilchrist says:

    @Napoleon: It is somewhere inbetween them and Wang, were I don’t know.

    Silver and Wang explain their methodology. Can you?

  110. 110
    HG Hay says:

    This from the man who authored Condi vs. Hilary. I really expect better.

  111. 111
    Joel says:

    @catclub: Unfortunately not legal in my state, else I would.

  112. 112
    nastybrutishntall says:

    @RedCon: Obambi is gonna give Mitt’s campaign a nice sea burial in a week. That Mormon underwear won’t help him float to victory.

  113. 113

    @kc:
    Last I heard, Bill Kristol was predicting Romney abdicating and Palin winning the presidency. People like Dick Morris haven’t begun to DREAM of the levels of wrongness Bill Kristol wields.

  114. 114

    Sam Wang posts all his source code on his site (a mix of Java, MATLAB and python). So anyone who questions his methodology or motives is free to download it and have a go. (His site appears to be down, BTW, or I would have provided a link).

    From the math point of view, an election and a poll are both statistical samples of voter sentiment. But the different circumstances between a full election and a given poll (or that between poll A and poll B) means that you need a ‘model’ to process the poll data to make it as much like the election as possible. That’s hard.

    Next week’s election is really 50 independent state-level elections (ie 50 independent events), so another aspect that needs to be modeled is the cross-correlation (if any) between these independent events. Silver’s model appears to assume more correlations between the different states than Wang’s, hence the difference.

    As the years pass, I’d expect better models of cross-state correlations to be developed. (Though once Joe Voter figures this out and adapts by learning how to lie to pollsters, polling will become a Dark Art once more).

    Dick Morris is full of shit, but I still won’t put it past the GOP to try and steal this. This morning’s widening in several states is a good thing.

    One more week.

  115. 115

    @Hoodie:

    I don’t think that will be the tactic, except maybe on the margins. They don’t want to further alienate Latinos. Romney will take the fall, because that’s what Republicans do—they ritually sacrifice their losers as failures of faithfulness to the cause, only to later rehabilitate them. The wingers will be allowed to save face by blaming his loss on a lack of “principles.” Paves the way for the next Villager-approved Republican, like Jeb or Christie, both of whom “everyone” knows are men of principle. The Bobo columns write themselves. Remember, Romney started out as the original Villager-approved Republican.

    I don’t see what’s preventing both scenarios from happening.

    Romney will take the fall while Latinos are increasingly demonized. Business as usual in Crazy Town.

  116. 116
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Napoleon:

    I think you’re misreading the numbers. Wang is not predicting that Obama will win 99% of the vote. He’s saying that there’s a 99% probability that he will win the states that Wang is predicting Obama will win.

  117. 117
    LanceThruster says:

    @Mark B.:

    In a just world, people and media would be unified in calling him out as a unrepentant liar and dismiss him outright as qualified to hold any office.

    Instead, we inhabit some sort of bizarro world where his candidacy actually gets an undeserved traction.

  118. 118
    NonyNony says:

    @Mnemosyne:

    I think you’re misreading the numbers. Wang is not predicting that Obama will win 99% of the vote. He’s saying that there’s a 99% probability that he will win the states that Wang is predicting Obama will win.

    This is the problem that I think the more honest pundits who are outraged about Nate Silver are having. They think that Nate is saying that 75% of the vote is going to go to Obama when he says that Obama has a 75% chance of winning. That’s emphatically NOT what those probabilities mean – they mean that 3 out of 4 times with the world the way its configured right now, Obama wins the election, probably with 50.1% of the vote.

    Wang’s numbers are similar, except that his model has more confidence in that 50.1% victory than Silver’s does. Silver’s says that 3 out of 4 times, Obama wins. Wang’s says 99 out of a hundred times given the way the world is configured right now, Obama wins. That’s all they’re saying – nothing more, nothing less. They aren’t saying that it won’t be a razor thin margin of victory at all – they’re saying that X times out of a hundred, Obama will be on the side of that razor thin margin that wins.

    It’s tough to wrap your head around, but that’s how this can be a tight race and Obama can still have a 75% (or 95%) chance of pulling it off. Political pundits who rely on their gut may hate it, but that’s how it works.

  119. 119
    blingee says:

    Christie doesn’t have a butterballs chance in hell. You think anyone would have paid any attention to Palin if she was a sweatty fat fuck?!

  120. 120
    Dr. Loveless says:

    @gnomedad:

    So are “Gucci bags and massage parlors” the new “T-bone steaks and Cadillacs”?

  121. 121
    trollhattan says:

    FWIW the Nate Silver chances of Romney winning plunged today, to 22.6% from yesterday’s 27.1%.

    I understand from Politico that means Willard’s now a lock.

  122. 122
    Mnemosyne says:

    @NonyNony:

    If Obama actually did get 75% of the popular vote, I would laugh and laugh. Though 73% would be even better.

  123. 123
    Joel says:

    @NonyNony: I hear this a lot, and I don’t think anyone is under this impression. The issue is that pundits think that 75% likelihood is higher than it is. 3 in 4 is not an especially high likelihood; it’s basically a stone’s throw (one sigma) from 50% in terms of confidence. Needless to mention, Nate Silver is one of the most conservative (highest uncertainty) predictors out there right now.

    At 75%, you cannot confidently say, “Obama will win next week”. However, once you reach 95% likelihood, as Sam Wang has, you’re talking about probabilities outside the confidence interval of a tie. In other words, you’ve crossed the statistically significant threshold of an Obama win. At this point, you could thus say:

    Obama will win the election next week, barring something fundamentally wrong with the source data.

    Which I think is a fair comment. There are reasons to doubt the source data (state polling) — the national polls for one — but there are more reasons to doubt the national polling.

  124. 124
    catclub says:

    @Joel: Exactly.

    It would help to compare predictions 6 days out from 2008.
    I would not be surprised if then, Nate Silver was at 90%+
    probability of electing Obama. While, today, he is not there.

    75% probability means GOTV.

  125. 125
    giantslor says:

    Now I KNOW Obama’s gonna win.

  126. 126
    NonyNony says:

    @Joel:

    I hear this a lot, and I don’t think anyone is under this impression.

    I wish that were true. But when I hear pundits say things like “how can anyone think that this is anything but a tight, 50-50 race at this point”, I can’t help but think that they’re conflating the margin of victory (which will be small) with the probability of winning (which may be quite large). Even very intelligent people have a poor grasp on what probabilities actually mean in the real world.

    The issue is that pundits think that 75% likelihood is higher than it is. 3 in 4 is not an especially high likelihood; it’s basically a stone’s throw (one sigma) from 50% in terms of confidence. Needless to mention, Nate Silver is one of the most conservative (highest uncertainty) predictors out there right now.

    This is true as well though – some of them are smart enough to understand that a close fought race might still have an edge one way or another for a candidate, but 75% sounds “too high” and they want their numbers to be … closer to what the final vote tally will be. Which makes them sound just like the folks in the first camp above. So it’s hard to tell – probably because most of these folks don’t have an intuitive grasp of what the numbers really mean and are relying on their “gut” and the narrative.

    But yes – a 75% chance of victory really isn’t all that much of a sure thing. And that’s why even if Obama loses, Silver may not have any problems with his model at all – this might just be that one world in four where luck broke Romney’s way. (Wang, on the other hand, would have to rethink his model and his assumptions about corellation between state polls – because you’re right about the statistical significance of his predictions at this point).

  127. 127
    Arclite says:

    Shorter Dick: Blackity blackity, black black black.

  128. 128
    Woodrowfan says:

    the comments thread at The Hill is scary. holy cow.

  129. 129
    lawguy says:

    I asked my 90 year old Mom who she was going to vote for and she told me that she certainly wasn’t going to vote for the one guy because he looked weird and acted scary and seemed to be mean. I said: Who is that? She said well he certainly isn’t the black guy.

  130. 130
    Nylund says:

    For the record, Nate Silver does not say that Dick Morris’ prediction won’t happen. He’s just saying it’s quite unlikely. “Quite unlikely” isn’t the same as impossible though.

    No way I’d ever risk any of my own money on a bet that Dick Morris is right.

    …Actually, that gets me thinking. Do you think there’s any way to make Dick Morris put his money where his mouth is?

  131. 131
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Napoleon:

    Silver factors in the national polls and is coming up with a more reasonable sounding 77%.

    “Reasonable” based on what? Either you say “this is what my gut is telling me, and I can’t put a number on my gut”, or you show your methodology. That’s what the quants are doing now.

    The thing about statistics is it shows how people’s guts are very bad reckoners of probabilities. This is why Vegas casinos can comp your room. I know what my gut is telling me, but I’m now careful not to ascribe it a probability value.

  132. 132
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Woodrowfan:

    the comments thread at The Hill is scary. holy cow.

    There and Bullshitico. Funny how some relatively non-wingnutty sites get their comments sections taken over by wingnut loons — and The Hill doesn’t have the will or the manpower to make them less of a cesspit.

  133. 133
    Lukas says:

    Until Obama hits 50% in the swing state polls, Dick Morris may be (shudder) right. Stop resting on laurels and WORK HARD TO GET OUT THE VOTE.

  134. 134
    Ash Can says:

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    Last I heard, Bill Kristol was predicting Romney abdicating and Palin winning the presidency.

    LOL! Seriously, though, given the accuracy of the principle on which Poe’s law is based, I’m almost tempted to believe that.

  135. 135
    shortstop says:

    @Michael: I admire the patience with which you repeatedly and carefully explain methodology to this fingers-in-ears troll and then invite him, to the sound of crickets, to explain his. The dude has followed his usual MO of fleeing the thread only to show up in another whining, “But this doesn’t pass the smell test!”

    Meanwhile, a lot of us are pounding GOTV pavement in this guy’s state while he sits around the house sniveling that we just don’t understand Ohio like he does.

    There’s not a nickel’s worth of difference between Napoleon and the wingers who deny the science of climate change, evolution and BLS data-gathering because it hurts their precious feelings.

  136. 136
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    @Bulworth:

    But once we all at Faux News met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we at Faux News got to know him — and to like him.

    For some ungodly reason (honestly I dunno why) I am reminded of something a comedian (I think it was David Frye) said during the 1968 campaign, when there was much pissing & moaning about there being “not a dime’s worth of difference” between the candidates. He said that was bunk, & you could tell them apart easily. His example was Vietnam:

    HUMPHREY: It’s a dirty little war, but we’ve got to fight it.

    NIXON: It’s a dirty little war, but we’ve got to fight it, and we should be proud to fight it.

    WALLACE: It’s a dirty little war, but we ought to get down on our knees & thank the Lord for it, ‘cuz it’s the only war we got!

  137. 137
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    Insert obligatory FYWP with a rusty chainsaw!! I hit resend once after the “Problem Loading Page” screen, but there is no fucking excuse for two dupes.

  138. 138
    Uncle Cosmo says:

    @pseudonymous in nc:

    The thing about statistics is it shows how people’s guts are very bad reckoners of probabilities.

    Edward Teller once wrote that “The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function.” Um, don’t think so. IMHO the extinction is far more likely to occur from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend simple probability & statistics.

  139. 139
    victoid says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    There is no substance that can be smoked that would cause hallucinations of this intensity. Morris is mainlining heavy designer psychotropics in solution with the pus that oozes from the swollen goiter bulging from his mouth

  140. 140
    Glen Tomkins says:

    “Nice choice of phrase, Dick.”

    Why capitalize the D? Capitalize it and people might think you were referring to someone else named Richard. Small d narrows it down a bit, and so soon after a mention of Morris, makes the reference unmistakable.

  141. 141
    jjcomet says:

    @RedCon: You seem to be unaware that a presidential campaign isn’t successful unless you’ve actually, you know, won. When was Romney elected president?

  142. 142
    Green Eagle says:

    @Taylormattd: Uh, let me guess: Could it have something to do with the your still having a conscience?

  143. 143
    cambridgemac says:

    @Enhanced Voting techniques:
    BINGO! But I fear it’s worse than that. First, these guys believe their own lies. They think the only way Obama can win is through vote fraud. So, they’re planning their own “corrective” vote stealing in Ohio and elsewhere.

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