Doing what will almost certainly be the last mowing and trimming of the year. We’ve decided to hold off on listing our current house and starting construction on the new house. If Rmoney wins, there’s a good chance I’ll be out of of a job, being that I’m still Career-conditional without tenure as I have less than three years in the federal civil service. If Obama wins, I’m good to go. If Rmoney wins but the Dems keep the Senate, I’m good to go. But I’m holding what I’ve got for now at least until after the election. If Rmoney wins and the the Senate flips (very unlikely, I know) then all bets are off. Not only will my position be most likely liquidated when they destroy the Department of Veteran’s Affairs, cut disability payments and voucher out the healthcare, but whatever job I do find will have my taxes go up because we have to give tax cuts to billionaires and the only way to do that is to raise income taxes on the middle class, like me. The Zombie-eyed Granny Starver will have his blood, and his bought and paid for stooge will do what he’s told-which he’d do anyway.
But other than those heavy thoughts with which I find myself occupied, it’s a beautiful day here in Oklahoma City for doing that fall lawn care.
Oh, yeah–here’s that open thread I mentioned.
Corner Stone
Fuckin’ FIREBAGGER!!
Chris
Re Soonergrunt’s job situation: I sincerely hope the Dems win, or at least keep the Senate. Not only for that your sake, but now there’s another reason.
Re open thread: I know it’s been out for a week, but now that I’ve finally seen it, Argo = good movie. Very honest in the depiction of Iran, too.
Corner Stone
“If Obama wins” ?
You should be burned at the fucking stake, heretic.
Corner Stone
@Chris:
Based on?
Cermet
I am lost on fuel prices – here in the Mid-Atlantic – prices have still, slowly, been failing; now down to $3.56/gal. I hear that the Left coast is seeing a bit higher (well over four, I hear) … is it comming down at all?
Chris
@Corner Stone:
Sorry. What I mean is it’s not a propaganda piece. It’s honest about the coup in 1953, the events leading up to the revolution and the fact that the revolution was more complicated that just “mob of angry Muslims decides to fuck shit up because they’re savages and they hate America,” which is the narrative much of the country still clings to.
Corner Stone
How can LSU’s team defensive speed be world class year in and out but their offense be mediocre at best?
Corner Stone
@Cermet: Paying around $3.35 to $3.40 ish in the Greater Houston Metro Area.
WereBear
@Chris: In the late seventies, I went to college with a couple of Iranians on student visas; I was better informed than most because of that.
I am on the couch fighting off another sinus infection. Got one of those antibiotics with a yardlong list of side effects, including paranoia and suicidal thoughts. So I’m paranoid about developing suicidal thoughts.
But next week we are going to have the office air tested; let’s see if my hunch about Sick Building Syndrome turns out to be correct.
gbear
Not having a great day today.
I had a not-terribly large new sofa delivery planned for the morning but the truck didn’t show up until 12:30. I’ve got an old house with a not-terribly large front door with a newell post and stairway less than three feet in front of the door. No matter what the delivery guys tried to do to squeeze the sofa thru the door, it wouldn’t fit. We removed the front door, we removed the entry light fixture, we chipped paint off the newell post, and we finally gave up, shoved the sofa back out the door and put everything back in the truck. I was afraid it might go this way but I thought they’d be able to pull it off.
Going to run some errands, get lunch, come home and check to see if I’ve caught any more mice after Halley clued me in that one was raiding her catfood dish last night. Then I’m going to let Halley and new cat Edward try to spend some time together again. Neither cat wants to be a buddy yet but they’re not fighting at all. Just hissing if things get too close.
Damn, the old couch got hauled off last week and now I’ve got a living room with no place to nap except the floor.
Jennifer
Sooner, I’m sorry you live in Oklahoma. Yes, I’m sure there are plenty of good people there, but the crazy is so strong. There was a great segment on NPR last night about how the Oklahoma legislature was tricked into implementing state-funded pre-K programs; apparently when the idea was first put forward as a non-mandated, privately-funded program, it got derailed because some of your resident crazies labelled it “a nannystate program” and whipped up opposition to it in the legislature. So the guy who was trying to get it done found an end run way to get it passed, only now it gets funded by the state. The way he did it was basically by not mentioning to legislators that it would be the state paying for it, and since they didn’t bother to read the bill, it passed. Now that it’s in place, they said 75% of parents enroll their 4-year-olds in the non-mandatory program. Hmmmm….75%….which means that 25% do not….and 25% is very, very close to that number that crops up so often…27%.
Anyway, if you can find the segment online to listen to it, it was great.
The Dangerman
@Cermet:
In greater LA, it was $4.55 a few days ago when I filled up; I haven’t looked since. In CA, or at least SoCal, the winter blend hasn’t hit yet that I’ve seen (it’s cheaper, but, of course, Big Oil has to finish fucking us over first; I’d love to see Obama drop an Antitrust suit on these assholes, I mean, how coincidental is it that gas spikes just prior to an election…)
jwb
Anyone have a good source on total ad buys for past couple of weeks in support of Obama and Romney (not just by campaigns but including SuperPacs)?
suzanne
I should be studying, but I am exhausted. It’s been very busy at work, and my husband is sick, and my goal is to not leave the house at all this weekend. However, I am sorta craving good, drippy Sonoran food, so I might have to make that happen.
ranchandsyrup
@Cermet: Yeah, it’s coming down slowly here in San Diego county. Down about 40 cents from the peak.
Scout211
@Cermet:
Paid $4.59 about 10 days ago. Recently paid $4.45. (Northern California)
They have one bogus reason after another.
All get translated, “we want more profits” of course.
KoolEarl
PPP: OH Obama lead down to 1 point (49-48) ouch
Corner Stone
Been spending time laughing at some people on a financial board who think government has no business ever investing in private business. And more “free market” claptrap.
I asked them if they would enjoy posting thoughts on a point to point 2400 baud connection, instead of the internets we abuse today.
Randy P
Just got back at 2 am from a grueling work trip in the wilds of El Paso. Ate one heck of a lot of great Mexican food, but it’s good to be home. Just sitting around sipping an iced coffee in the cafe and reading BJ.
Jay C
@Cermet:
If by “Left Coast” you mean California, I think they are still enduring a persistent supply problem due to a couple of unscheduled refinery incidents (and one, I think, scheduled) which have severely pinched availability – and thus, sent prices through the roof. Unfortunately for CA drivers, I don’t think the refineries will be coming back 100% online any time soon.
Corner Stone
@Randy P: Mexican, or Tex-Mex?
Randy P
@Corner Stone: Notice how you had to put that strawman BJer out there since no real people offered that opinion?
Probably not. Self-awareness is not something we associate with our trolls.
Corner Stone
@Randy P: Give me a fucking break simpleton.
They had a pre-emptive inoculation threadfest where they declared how awesome Obama was before the second debate even fucking started.
If that isn’t poke worthy then I don’t know what is.
Cacti
I feel ya Soonergrunt. I just finished my probationary period for SSA this year. Even so, if Rmoney and Eddie Munster get their way, Social Security will be privatized, the agency will be gutted, and I’ll likely get kicked to the curb.
I’ve told my Repub parents that a vote for Romney is a vote to put me out of work.
Randy P
@Corner Stone: Mexican. Staff all Mexican, customers >50% mexican, Spanish on the signs better than the English.
Corner Stone
I love how the “troll” dialectic is running rampant through BJ these days.
Thanks for highlighting my comment.
Corner Stone
@Randy P: Nothing to do with it. And I can tell from your other responses you aren’t bright enough to discern the difference.
Probably had enchiladas.
chopper
worked in the community garden for a bit. turned my compost pile, chopped up a ton of debris.
Evolving Deep Southerner
I was so hoping Obama would nail Mitt on that “the Government doesn’t create jobs” shit in the last debate. Of course it fucking does. And those jobs are literally the definition of “middle class” in this country. Fucking road workers, water plant workers, sewer plant workers, sanitation workers, police, fire, EMTs, utility crews … How many loaves of bread and gallons of milk does that put on tables in every community in America? And how much worse has the employment picture been compared to what it would have been if the federal government’s actions hadn’t resulted in massive – and largely needless – contractions in county and state governments and school systems?
Hal
@KoolEarl:
Meh. One poll. Also:
jwb
@KoolEarl: Don’t know what to make of PPP’s recent polls, which seem to have shifted more markedly right than all other polls except Gallup. By this, I do not mean that PPP is even close to Rasmussen in terms of bias, but only that their typical poll today seems farther right compared to other polling firms than it did a month ago. Gallup has followed a similar path. What I don’t know is whether PPP in any respect changed their methodology to tighten the race or if they are reporting a real change in the those whom they poll. But it’s knocking me out of my happy place, because I find PPP harder to discount than either Gallup or Rasmussen.
jwb
@efgoldman: “whatever happened to neighborhood teenagers who would gladly do your lawn for a few bucks?”
I heard they went Galt.
Mr Stagger Lee
Ohio St. is playing like shit, now a safety was just made by the Boilermaker defense.
Another Halocene Human
Re: OKey-dokey City: my brother worked in OKC for approximately 6 months before he could secure a post in Florida. Florida.
Well, at least it wasn’t Tulsa. Tulsans are assholes.
Mike E
Yep, there’s a lot at stake (when hasn’t that been the case in the last 20 years?) plus mebbe I can haz healthcare after being out of the steady workforce for a dog’s age, and my daughter can stay on her mom’s plan for another 9 years.
At one of my part-time jobs I am making nonpartisan GOTV calls for early voting to a certain demographic, (wink wink) so it’s all hands on deck until Election Day.
Randy P
@efgoldman: whatever happened to neighborhood teenagers who would gladly do your lawn for a few bucks?
He lives in our neighborhood, but “a few bucks” is $25. And he’s a sophomore, so our time with him is limited. After he graduates I guess we’re going to have to go with a service, but they always make me think of the guy from Stephen King’s “Lawnmower Man”. That didn’t go too well for the homeowner.
BJ is so educational. I would never have guessed that Mexicans didn’t know how to make Mexican food.
Corner Stone
@efgoldman:
You can’t take Little Susie out for a burger and a drive-in movie anymore on “lawn money”.
JPL
@Chris: Argo is suppose to be an early contender for an Oscar. The only film that I’ve seen about Iran that I felt was accurate was Persepolis and it’s a French anime.
KoolEarl
@Hal: Yeah, I know, but still…
Another Halocene Human
@Corner Stone: Troll is as troll does.
I’m in a position to know, having started by trolling career at the tender age of 13 on Prodigy, and having hung up my gloves oh, about last year.
They say the internet lacks context cues. Well, only for those who don’t care to look for them.
JustAnotherBob
@Hal:
If that is the outcome then Obama wins 55 to 43.
No hurt there.
yopd1
Just so you know where I am coming from. My six year old daughter broke her neck a week ago Friday. Spent last night in the hospital, her first night awake after being under sedation all week.. Luckily, she will not be paralyzed or have much in terms of permanent damage. However, she has a history of other issues a mile long including (hearing loss, vision impairment, balance impairment, and she had a trach and feeding tube for the first four years of her life).
I’d like to write a letter to all my relatives (mainly my wife’s in TX) explaining to them how if they vote for Romney, they’ll be voting against me and my daughter.
Anyone have any good statistics on the effects Romney and a Republican repeal will do to those of us in California. My daughter currently receives some medi-cal to offset the copays/deductibles that my current insurance through my employer doesn’t cover. And I am told I have very good insurance.
FlipYrWhig
@jwb: I suspect there’s something funky going on with the way they’re measuring enthusiasm and likelihood of voting. They don’t have an ideological thumb-on-the-scale “house effect,” but they’ve got a screwy component to their formula somewhere. But I’m no statistician, alas.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: What about the malt shop? Those are still affordable, right, daddy-o?
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig: Only if you buy the one malt with two straws.
As all right thinking red blooded American Males would do.
Chris
@JPL:
Never saw that, but I loved the comic it was based on.
Another Halocene Human
@JPL: The Persia-bashing is all projection. If you look at the Greek track record vs. Persian, it’s not even a contest.
Heck, Xtians should know this because the OT covers Jewish interactions with both the Persian and Greek empires. Darius was named “Friend of the Jews” while the Greeks inspired the Maccabee revolt.
Plus, if anyone deserves credit for “saving Civilization”, sorry, Ireland, but that would be Persia.
Randy P
@Corner Stone: I shouldn’t feed the troll, but…
“Las enchiladas son un plato tradicional de la cocina mexicana del que se desconoce con exactitud su origen y existen más de trescientas variedades en todo México que varían según la región.”
“Enchiladas are a traditional dish of Mexican cuisine of which the exact origin is unknown. There exist more than three hundred varieties throughout Mexico which vary by region.”
Mr Stagger Lee
@Corner Stone: If my straw is from across the room and is in your milkshake, I drink your milkshake!! SLUUURRRRRP!!!
yopd1
Stuck in moderation hell. I don’t know why. This is what my family has been dealing with this past week (wife’s blog). I wish it on no one.
Hill Dweller
@jwb: Who knows? I’ve seen some people speculate their recent polling shift was a response to people calling them a “liberal” polling firm.
Whatever the case, I can’t believe Willard is this close due to one debate, especially after Obama handily won the last debate.
JPL
@Chris: I knew it was auto-biographical but didn’t know about the comic.
Chris
@Another Halocene Human:
One of the many things that comes to mind when watching “300;” in real life, I’d WAY rather have lived under the Persian Empire than Sparta. Comparing it to Athens or the other Greek city-states may be a different matter, but in a fight between those two, I know who I’m rooting for, and it ain’t Leonidas.
Geoduck
@FlipYrWhig:
My town actually had a new malt shop open up this year. Don’t know how well they’re doing, tho.
Another Halocene Human
@Chris: Athens had this weird thing going on where there were five “foreigners” to every “citizen”. And of course women had no political rights (seems like they had more respect in Sparta, of all places). Plus, Hoplites.
The pre-Hellenic societies were not quite so anti-woman, and you get an echo of that in that Athena remained the patron of Athens even following Hellenic invasion. Women had their own, secret religious rituals of which we don’t know so much about, first because they didn’t talk about them with men and second because what accounts there were left by women of the Greek world were ruthlessly suppressed by the Church.
Another Halocene Human
@JPL: The comic is awesome. Double plus recommend.
Corner Stone
@Randy P: Good job. Amigo.
Mustang Bobby
@Cermet: Gas is $3.69 to $3.79 here in Miami depending on the part of town. On the way to the Keys — Florida City — it’s ten cents cheaper.
We still have at least two months of bi-weekly lawn cutting here in South Florida before it slows to once a month. But they’re predicting a wetter than normal dry season (which would make it the “moist” season, I suppose), so we won’t be cutting back on cutting.
mamayaga
@yopd1: So sorry to hear about your daughter. The last week must have been unimaginably rough. Glad to hear she will recover.
You should write that letter and just ask your relatives why oil companies get billions in subsidies while families like yours often have to hold bake sales to avoid financial disaster.
yopd1
@mamayaga: Question: Not that we’re holding a bake sale or anything. But if I had to, wouldn’t the money that we generate from the bake sale be considered income for my family and taxed at the highest marginal rate, unlike investment income.
Now that would make an interesting addition to the letter.
Corner Stone
Wow. TAMU just borked that one up against LSU.
Yutsano
@yopd1:
You absolutely should. Obamacare will save her life later on because she can now get health coverage despite her history anywhere. Voting for Willard takes that away.
ranchandsyrup
@yopd1: Man, sorry to hear about your daughter. Sending good thoughts your way.
RossInDetroit, Rational Subjectivist
Really enjoying being back home even though the weather is suck X 10. I missed being able to speak English to people around me for the better part of 2 weeks. I’m babbling like a fool* to clerks and waitresses just because I can.
Oh, and suddenly currency is boring. I get why the Dollar can never change but countries with modern paper money designs have so many advantages over ours.
Worst current fear: I go in on Monday with my suitcase packed and get slapped back on a jet to go somewhere else. Because that’s what Field Engineer means.
*more than usual
danielx
@yopd1:
Good thoughts for you and your daughter; been there doing the hospital floor walk more often than I care to remember.
JPL
@yopd1: Medicaid to states would be capped. Each state would decide how to use their funds. I don’t know if the CBO has looked at the plan but I did read to expect thirty percent decreases in federal aid for medicaid.
Glad your daughter is mending.
Corner Stone
@RossInDetroit, Rational Subjectivist: Doesn’t sound like they are paying you enough.
Paul
@Yutsano:
I just find it incomprehensible that about half of the US population are against guaranteed health coverage.
BD of MN
@JustAnotherBob:
Obama wins 55/43 if early voters are 50%, but if they are 21% as it says right there, then the math comes out at 48.6 Obama and 48.2 Romney… Much too close…
Just filled up for $3.58/gal in the Twin Cities…
Corner Stone
@Paul:
They hate non-whites.
That’s all.
RossInDetroit, Rational Subjectivist
@Corner Stone:
I do it because it’s the coolest work I’ve ever done. Physics + manufacturing. And it’s never boring.
yopd1
@Paul: Considering my relatives include one who had a heart attack before age 65 and one with Chrohn’s Disease, it’s more about they got theirs.
danielx
@Paul:
It’s not shocking – the half that are against guaranteed health care have either a) a vested interest in things staying just the way they are or b) feel that health care should be “earned” somehow, so they can feel superior to those who don’t have it.
Linda
Yopd, I am so sorry to hear about your daughter.
Sooner , I don’t believe your situation is as bad as you think. If Romney wins, he will be president, not CEO. He cannot order the VA to shut down the day after he takes office. He must deal with Congress. Longtime Congresscritters are royalty. They will not take kindly to this upstart ordering them around, which is what Romney will do–it’s all he knows how to do. Another arrogant CEO type, Donald Rumsfeld, tried to impose his vision on a department (DOD). Google national Security Personnel System. The government is very large, still; making a big change is like turning a battleship about 180 degrees. By the time Romney inflicted any real damage on VA, you’d be career, and it would be even more difficult for him to destroy Civil Service protections as Rumsfeld tried to do.
John
@BD of MN: And then there’s the 4% undecided in the 52/44
John
@BD of MN: And then there’s the 4% undecided in the 52/44
JoyfulA
@yopd1: Thank heavens your daughter came through the surgery OK! It’s also good that pictures of children in a halo look all right to her, so she’ll tolerate wearing it better. Maybe the fact that it’s called a “halo” rather than a brace or a cast helps.
ruemara
@yopd1: Please do this. The best voter outreach is the one that makes it intense and personal.
Paul
@efgoldman:
This I find amusing. Romney/ryan have promised to leave Medicare unchanged for those 55 and older, but change it to voucher care for those that are 54 or younger. Are seniors that naive that they think people that are 54, 53, 50 years old will agree to this? Hell, if you are going mess up younger people’s medicare, I bet there will be an outcry to “let’s mess it up for the selfish seniors ” as well.
And I assume this is the untold part of the GOP plan…
Evolving Deep Southerner
AWWWW-burn! Falling to the ‘Dores! Life is sweet.
weaselone
@John:
Conversely, the 21% of the electorate that has already voted has for lack of better words,already voted. Not all of that other 79% is going to vote.
JustAnotherBob
@BD of MN:
As the first post says “Obama is up 66/34 with early voters in Ohio”. 21% have voted early. 52 to 44 in favor of PBO among the 79% yet to vote.
0.66 x 21 = 13.9
0.52 x 79 = 41.1
Total 55
0.34 x 21 = 7.1
0.44 x 79 = 34.8
Total 42.9 (43)
That’s a 12 point lead.
@John:
My math, and it could be flawed, 55 to 43. 2% missing. But even if it were 4% and Romney got all 4 it would leave him behind at 55 to 47.
Paul
@JustAnotherBob:
I think you got the 79% left to vote mixed up. Romney is leading that 52-44, not Obama.
PurpleGirl
@WereBear: Hope you’re feeling better soon.
@gbear: Argh. I feel for you and the problem of furniture not fitting through doorways. When I had a new refrigerator delivered, they had to take the doors off the unit to get past my hallway bookcases. One reason I haven’t replaced my recliner is that when it was delivered I didn’t have the bookcases in the hallway. I don’t think we could get it out now and a new one in.
Hill Dweller
Banking early votes also increases the efficiency of OFA’s GOTV. Dems have registration advantages in most of the battleground states. If OFA can turn out their voters, they should win.
Beth in VA
@JustAnotherBob: That’s not the way my math works:
0.20 (20 percent) times 0.66 is 13.2 % of total vote for O
0.80 (80 percent) times 0.44 is 35.2 % of vote for O.
Add these up:
13.2 early voting for O
35.2 later voting for O
48.4 total voting for 0. Not a win, unfortunately.
That’s the way I count it.
John
@JustAnotherBob: Well, I became a lawyer because I suck royally at math (there was also the humanities major and lack of creativity), so I will allow myself to be convinced. I got the same numbers as BD of MN, but I could be wrong.
JustAnotherBob
@Paul: Yep.
As I said, my math could be wrong.
John
@Paul: Wait-that’s right. In which case give the 41.1 to Rmoney and 34.8 to the Kenyan Usurper. Then you get BD of MN numbers. Add to that Nate Silver saying FL is leaning Romney, and I’m shitting my pants. Although Sam Wang is giving BHO 299 EVs, so I’m believing that…
But re the 52-44, aren’t exit polls generally more reliable than these sorts of polls? Even if polling early voters isn’t formally considered an exit poll?
Corner Stone
Jesus Fucking Christ.
Ruckus
I like that government doesn’t create jobs yet here we are discussing someone with a government job which exists to help other citizens because they generally have no other choice. (BTW the VA is incredible, keep up the great work Sooner). And that a presidential candidate, who in theory is supposed to work for all of us(I can still crack myself up) wants us to just trust him that he won’t screw us right into the ground even though that’s exactly what he says he will do. Fuck conservatives. I don’t think
that can be said enough, so… Fuck conservatives.
Gas prices in SF Valley this morning, cheapest $4.33, down from $4.59 a week ago, same station.
@yopd1:
Best wishes for your family.
As someone who uses the evil government for healthcare (VA) and just found out that I have had a heart attack in the not too distant past, without knowing it, my only comment is, once again see the above or read it here, Fuck Conservatives.
Paul
@Corner Stone:
If the Obama government hadn’t invested in GM, our country would be in a depression now. There are times when the government HAS TO invest in private business.
Odie Hugh Manatee
I saw a funny today! When I went to pick my wife from work I saw a vehicle with the license plate “OMG LOL”. While that was funny in itself, what really made me laugh was the bumper sticker above it.
Romney/Ryan 2012
It made me wonder if the owner was really a Romney supporter.
Chris
@Ruckus:
Well said brother Ruckus.
Bill D.
So where is this “fucking stake”, anyway? Sounds like a fun place! ;-)
Corner Stone
@Paul: Part of the complaint was established business. But some of it was “choosing winners and losers” by investing in some private concerns that did certain things. They claim, “good ideas will succeed on their own”.
Yeah, unless Ma Bell (et al) crushes their access to markets, consumers and suppliers. Which is why I brought up ARPAnet and the DOD.
Just ignorant asses.
John
NY Times News Alert: Iran agrees to nuclear talks. Should come in handy for Monday’s debate.
Still haven’t forgotten the front-page Romney hagiography in today’s NY Times though. Fuck those guys…sometimes.
KXB
Until polling companies start disclosing upfront their methodology, the number of people from which parts of the country, ethnicity, income, and education level – I’m going to discount them.
Polling companies are increasing becoming like S&P and Moody’s. Just as those companies stamped every piece of junk as AAA, because they were getting paid to do so – I suspecthat the polling companies believe it is in their economic interests to make the races appear closer than they are. After all, if it is a close race, campaigns have to spend more on ads, which makes TV stations happy. Since television pays for many of the polls, they are interested in making their commercial airtime valuable.
If networks fail to deliver certain level of ratings for sporting events, many advertisers can try to claw back some of the money paid, or get free airtime in future broadcasts. But campaigns are in business only until the election, so networks have it in their interest to run up the rates as much as they can.
I was checking the website on the NY Times a moment ago, and one the articles was headlined, “Should Obama concede Florida?” I almost threw my phone. Did Election Day come and go in the Sunshine State?
metalgirl
I canvassed for Obama today and then went and voted early in Cary, NC. Gorgeous day and the people who I canvassed were glad to have the info on early voting (and, for the ones who weren’t home, they got a nice literature drop on their door knob). I felt very righteous wearing my “Women’s rights are human rights: Stop the Republican War on Women” t-shirt along with my “When Women Vote, Democrats Win” button :)
For those of you worried about the possibility of a Romney/Ryan administration, donate some hours to our local OFA office (you can even make phone calls from your house). Go here and click on the volunteer link on the right side: http://www.barackobama.com/
Hill Dweller
@KXB:
Nate Silver has lost a bit of his shine in this election cycle for blog posts like the one you cited. I suspect it’s the Village influence.
KXB
@Hill Dweller:
By that logic, Romney should have conceded Ohio weeks ago.
I don’t begrudge either Obama or Romney for throwing everything they got into close states, but it annoys me to no end when the election has not even been held yet. If this is how it will be handled, just bring back smoke filled rooms or impose a Saudi-style royal family.
Hal
I think I’m giving up on poll watching. heh heh. Sorry, anyhow, a new SUSA poll had Obama +1 and some other Dem leaning outfit has him +3. Plus there’s that weird number where Obama is up over Romney by 7 with registered, down with likely.
In short, I would hope Obama will not concede Florida, if for the optics alone, but really because these polls seem all over the place. Which ones do you trust?
Robert Sneddon
@Paul: That’s assuming all the remaining 79% are going to vote which is not likely. I take from these numbers that 21% of all registered voters in Ohio have already voted, and they’ve split Obama 66%, Romney 34%. Usually about 65-70% of registered voters in US elections will actually get out and vote and 21% have already done so in Ohio, leaving maybe 45-50% who will vote before polls close.
Obama has 14% in the bag, Romney 7% from early voting. Assume a big GOTV push by both sides and 50% of the remaining population vote at the ratio suggested in the poll, with a total vote of 71%.
Romney gets 52% x 0.5 = 26% of the as yet uncast votes. His total is 26 + 7 = 33% of all eligible voters.
Obama gets 44% x 0.5 = 22% of the possible votes. Obama’s total is 22 + 14 = 36%. This assumes 29% of the registered/ eligible voters don’t vote, or nearly a third. In this case Obama gets the 18 electoral votes on offer.
Last time around in 2008 the actual number who voted was 67.3%. Anything like this turnout or lower means a bigger margin for Obama assuming that 52/44 Romney/Obama split for folks still to vote holds.
gelfling545
I attended a meeting last week for an NPO I’m involved with which was given by the gateway agency for our federal grant. They kept saying “we won’t know for sure for a few months how funding is going to go”. You know they meant “until after the election because if Romney gets elected forget it”.
gelfling545
@Cermet: It is dropping slowly here in WNY (just under $4 after being about $4.10 for a while). I understand that there were some major problems with a west coast refinery that has interrupted supply so that area may not come down for a bit yet.
AHH onna Droid
@Jennifer: The other two% had their children off the grid.