I went out door-to-door for Congresswoman Louise Slaughter today. Had a great time and Louise herself showed up to give us pep talk.
I can’t lie, I’m getting nervous about the election. I’m a Red Sox fan.
All I can tell you is fight fight fight fight fight fight. Never stop. That’s the only way we’ll defeat the know nothing fascist movement that threatens to destroy our society.
Old Dan and Little Ann
I don’t know about you but I’d say the Slaughter signs where I am outnumber the Brooks signs about 5 to 1.
BarbCat
No complacency here, even on the leftest coast. First we’ll take Manhattan, then we’ll take…Vegas.
I don’t believe NYorkers would turn out the only microbiologist in Congress.
Scamp Dog
I spent 3 or 4 hours Saturday knocking on doors for the Obama campaign in Thornton, a Denver suburb. I only got one registration, but most of the people I talked to were already registered, and I’m starting to get a good feeling about Colorado going for Obama on election day. I’m not slacking off, though, and plan on doing GOtV work until it’s all over.
Omnes Omnibus
@BarbCat: I thought it was Manhattan and then Berlin. Vegas is more electorally useful.
Hill Dweller
The jobs report might just be Obama’s saving grace. PPP was saying Saturday’s Obama numbers were much better than Thursday’s and Friday’s numbers. I suspect that was due to the jobs report.
Also too, Willard’s lying and Big Bird problem is breaking through the chatter. SNL did a bit on the debate, and hammered Willard for his lying. Maureen Dowd of all people went after Willard’s lying in her column.
If Obama has a good performance in the last two debates, and the campaign does their job, I think he’ll be fine.
Jeff Spender
I’m not really that nervous. Despite the ups and downs and the risk, I’m fairly sure we’re on the right side of history. Barack Obama is a smart man, and a good politician.
I’m not complacent–I’m making the case for his reelection to as many people as possible. I just don’t find it very useful to be worried.
wasabi gasp
Whateberm dude lay of the fuds.
James E. Powell
If we get to Wednesday and polls are still moving in Romney’s direction, then I will worry. Until then, I figure we weather the storm. I refuse to believe that the Obama/Biden team cannot rebound from one bad debate performance.
pattonbt
Im not nervous, Im only pissed because I wanted Obama to HULK-smash Rmoney. Deep down, though, I knew that wouldnt happen – Obama’s never done that in any sphere to any opponent (the only time he was close is when he pulled Liberman up on the floor of the senate).
Its no drama Obama and Rmoney was going to be given the first debate (and truthfully, in some ways and measures, he earned the win) no matter what. The only way Rmoney was going to lose the first debate was if he lost it on his own fumbles. Showing up and speaking in complete sentences assured him the win.
Theres two debates to go and the press loves a comeback story, so dont be surprised if Obama wins on points in debate two (no matter the substance of the debate). And if he does, it is definitely game over (not that it isnt already game over right now, but its best to always play like your losing and dont get complacent).
I’ll see where polls are Friday before getting too worried about anything.
And again, everyone forget about the VP debate – they do nothing. Ryan is a lock to win regardless, but the needle never moves for VP debates. Just let it go now.
Elie
I would highly recommend Doris Kearn Goodwins “Team of Rivals”. She gives an in depth and compelling picture of Abraham Lincoln as he moved up the life and political ladder during a similarly pivotal period in our history. Also examines his main opponents and their life and political stories. It is giving me great comfort and insight and I highly reopened it along with working for O and sending dough
Splitting Image
If Obama can’t rebound from a sub-par performance, you can rest assured he wasn’t going to win anyway.
Romney won the first debate in every respect except the ones that are relevant to being a capable President. The problem with lying as shamelessly as he does is that it demonstrates an utter contempt for the news media that he’s counting on to spread the word about how great he is. The bobbleheads may be slow to pick up on that, but it’s not something they’ll easily forgive.
On the plus side, this is probably the beginning of the end of the era of Presidential TV debates. A lot of people have picked up on the fact that the TV pundits and Twitter picked different winners. If Twitter’s ability to make the Big Bird quote go viral proves more important than asshole “alpha males” like Chris Matthews praising whichever debater is the manlier and pushier of the two, then the debates themselves are starting to become obsolete. It’s only a question of who will be the first person to refuse to participate in them.
Another Halocene Human
@pattonbt: Romney did fumble, though. He fired up youth on the other side. Otherwise it would all be he’s a liar/cheater/tacking to the center but they already were going to spin that as #WINNING #SORELOSER so yeah… unforced error ahoy. Although OfA was clearly expecting Romney to lie/flip-flop (they’d be crazy not to) and were going to try to push back aggressively. But Obama did underperform, even if he did pull out a 0-gaffe night and stayed on message, making the Dems look like the sober party. The job report is positive but what is funny is that the “magic 8” number is that the wingnuts who were all fired up because Romney was a BSD on stage are now bleeding out of their easily-abraded orifices over breaching the 8% barrier. It’s just an incremental change. It lags what you see around you every day. It’s a crazy thing to have a melt-down over.
Own-goal, stupid righties. The correct report was to say the numbers go up, numbers go down, who can explain it, and go back to blithely hammering your Obama has failed narrative.
Idiots.
Elie
@Elie:
My apologies. Am typing on my IPhone and meant to say that I recommend Team of Rivals. Not reopened it!
Valdivia
Ni Hao from Shanghai. I have been getting frantic emails from friends freaking out about the election and from the distance all I could recommend was what I usually do: go door to door, phonebank, ignore the narrative and polls and check in in a week. If Nate has Obama losing then you can freak out, otherwise, keep on fighting fighting as DougJ says.
Debbie(Aussie)
Wonder if Imani (ABL) has seen/read this http://ranther.com/showthread.php?4785-Lizz-Winstead-co-creator-of-Daily-Show-launches-Lady-Parts-Justice&s=5ad1ea6ceb88ddc2dcde66c3ca47c651
Maybe they should team up :) A great rant.
ruemara
well, I burned off my own freakout about not having any scratch for the electrical bill, by registering people. The good news is, most people seem to be registered. The bad news? …I don’t really have any on the election front. Overall, we’re pretty probama. It’s just reminding people about downticket races and propositions. I’ll spend most of sunday pouring drinks for my local dem party fundraiser, hope I can get tips. kidding, sort of.
CaliCat
Good morning, night owls! I’m pissed off about the alleged Rom-douche bump in the polls after his so-called AWESOME debate performance. Btw, he sucked in the debate but I guess bluster and belligerence is all you need to be a winnah in Amurka. Forget knowledge, forget facts and information, just shoot your mouth off like a pompous asshole and ding-ding-ding YOU WIN! Whatever, it won’t matter. Glass half full: maybe this is what our side needed to avoid complacency during the home stretch.
Also, too, I’m bummed my SF Giants lost to the Reds in the 1st game of the NLDS tonight. Oh well. We are no strangers to heartbreak (like the Red Sox)so I take nothing for granted. We’ll get ’em tomorrow!
Hill Dweller
@CaliCat: Willard got a slight bump, but the jobs reports seems to be acting as a fire wall.
A Colorado poll from the Univ. of Denver came out today, with the sample all being post-debate, and Obama is +4.
CaliCat
@Hill Dweller: Good news, thanks Hill! I feel better already.
Another Halocene Human
@CaliCat: FUCK Romney.
And his spawn.
Randy P
Nate Silver is showing a definite debate effect.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
Obama’s win probability is down to 80.2% after reaching a high of 87.1%. There’s no question Romney got a bump for a few days, perhaps his best couple of days in the entire campaign. Let him enjoy it.
80% is still pretty comfortable territory, but the trend direction should be motivating us to keep fighting and donating. This is actually a bigger effect than I guessed, and I was not expecting it to break 80% before going back up again. But I guess there might still be one more day of Romney-momentum in Silver’s statistics.
I’ll be very surprised if the trend doesn’t start reversing by Monday.
CaliCat
@Another Halocene Human:
Ann does. poor dear.
Skippy-san
I am nervous about the election too. I worry that people will get too overconfident. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people-and there are a sizeable group of folks who do not understand that the world has changed and that the US needs someone besides a bunch of Bush retreads to lead the nation through the perilous times to come.
I don’t think we will know the true effect of the debates until the VP is over with. And I have more faith in Biden to go after the zombie eyed granny starver than many do-nonetheless they spin anything he says as a gaffe.
We have to fight hard all the way to election day.
Skippy-san
“In a good number of the polls, Mr. Romney has not only improved his own standing but also taken voters away from Mr. Obama’s column, suggesting that he has peeled off some of Mr. Obama’s softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.”
Be afraid.
Hill Dweller
@Randy P: I think Silver is factoring in a bunch of the wingnut polls that came out in the last couple of days, which were so absurdly weighted to make Willard look like he has a lead.
Nonetheless, I think the article describing the Willard campaign’s reaction to the jobs report numbers(“stone-faced”) says it all. They knew that ended whatever momentum they had, and sucked all the oxygen out of the room, so to speak.
The wingnuts’ desperate BLS conspiracy theory just amplified the jobs story.
BruinKid
I spent most of Saturday canvassing for Julia Brownley (D), running for Congress in the new CA-26 (mostly Ventura County) against Tony Strickland (R), who is the co-chair of the Romney/Ryan campaign in California. Everyone seems to think this is a genuine tossup race after redistricting. Obama won this area handily in 2008, but both Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina won it in 2010 while losing massively statewide.
While Democrats have a slight advantage in registration numbers to Republicans, Strickland has about 3 times the amount of money.
Unlike my previous times canvassing, when I was only going to Democratic voters, this time we were hitting up those not as politically engaged, but of ALL registered parties other than Republican, as well as “decline to state” (it’s a California thing). While a majority of the “DTS” people lean Democrat, you do find some conservatives in there as well.
Most people weren’t home. The good thing was most people I talked to were friendly, even a DTS man who asked me what party Brownley was in, and once I said she was a Democrat, immediately said “no thank you”. At least he quickly closed the door in my face politely. :-)
Near the very end of my canvas list, I suddenly met several folks who were open to voting for Brownley. One woman simply asked if she was pro-choice, and when I said she most definitely was (Planned Parenthood has endorsed Brownley), she said “I’m voting for her!” Even refused the literature I had, said that’s all she needed to know. Mind you, this was a woman who hadn’t been engaged enough to know who the candidates running for Congress even were, but it seems the GOP’s war on women had managed to filter down to her.
MTiffany
Perhaps we should take some solace in the wingers’ reaction to the jobs report numbers as it serves to illuminate just how much confidence they really place in Romney’s debate performance to turn the Presidental race in their favor. If they truly believed that his debate performance was that good, they’d be able shrug off an unemployment rate of 7.8% as “too little too late for team Obama”.
I thought they were spiking the ball too much post-debate.
pattonbt
@Another Halocene Human: I think among those who are decided who won or lost depended on whom you support. For the undecideds, I think it will be a mixed bag, but all media outlets reported Rmoney and won decisively, so that means, he won. The message from all outlets was not mixed, it was 100% in Rmoneys favor. What impact that “win” gets Rmoney outside of a couple of days (max) of winning the news cycle has yet to be seen (I dont think enough polls have come out to say what bump he did or didnt get) but I do think it is silly to say Rmoney didnt win. He won. One team was pumped after the debate and another scared like little babies.
I dont see evidence of the youth vote being any more or less mobilized after the debate for our side. Sure, the big bird witter snark is awesome and a good meme, and I agree, the jobs report will halt any gain Rmoney got, but Rmoney still won the debate. He won where it counted, live in front of people. Post fact fact-checking wont have the same impact as the live impact. And moaning about the moderator wont get you anywhere either (not saying you said said that, just was a common complaint after the debate).
The best way to react is to give Rmoney the win, let him get built up by the media while enjoying a slight (if any) poll bump, let the thousand paper cut fact checking and job report whittle away at that bump, and by debate 2 the media will be clamoring for a fight and not be as easy on Rmoney as they were this time around. But Obama has to be more animated and lively. Im not worried about substance or fumbles with Obama, he never ha any, but he has to be more lively. He does that and debate 2 is in the bag and debate 1 is down the memory hole.
CaliCat
@Skippy-san: I’m not afraid of undecideds. By the time they figure out what shirt to wear the polls will be closed.
pattonbt
I think the more important ting is for Obama to be “in the lead” via the main stream media within two weeks of the election. The undecideds are low information, non-tribal voters. They dont care too much and want to vote for the winner. Whoever is in the commanding position closer in will see them break for the leader decisively.
Again, my prognostication abilities generally suck, so theres that.
CaliCat
@BruinKid: A big hats off to you for canvassing! It’s tough work. Thank you!
CaliCat
@pattonbt:
See, this is the kind of conventional wisdom, group-think, blah-blah that really pisses me off. ROMNEY DID NOT WIN. He lied. He lied repeatedly. Romney’s optics were bad. He looked like a coke addict on day three of a binge. He was rambling incoherently. President Obama decided not to play his game for which I applaud him. The media and the reactionary left say Romney won so it’s set in stone? BULLSHIT. Romney was awful. Don’t buy the snake oil.
magurakurin
@CaliCat:
puhlease. Ann hasn’t fucked that skanky cock…or anything for that matter…for a very long time I reckon.
but I mean that in a nice way.
pattonbt
@CaliCat: I dont disagree with your assessment or Rmoneys performance, but for those who arent in on either side, he won. If you judge based on actual debate rules and parameters, sure, he lost. But the “debate” that was and the rules of modern presidential debates, Rmoney won. Continuing to try and argue otherwise is pissing into the wind.
I dont know why this is so hard for people to get. Sure, I think Obama won on substance, but a big part of political debate is performance art and it might be the most important part. It sucks, but it is true. And on that score, Obama lost.
I think Obama was fine, but he needed more zest to “win”.
Why is it so hard to admit Rmoney won? Because he lied? If lying or not had any impact on elections, the Republicans would never get in office. The debate was about getting undecideds to move (or shore up your bases) and Rmoney did better there than Obama.
pattonbt
@CaliCat: I guess what I am saying is that fighting the decision is not the best avenue to focus your energy on. I believe it is a pyrrhic victory and one I am easily willing to let Rmoney have. No debate has ever changed a presidential election and this one wont either. And it does a few good things 1) cements the lying angle for Rmoney, 2) raises the bar for Rmoney from here on a out (a bar I think he can not and will not clear) 3) gets O supporters to shake off complacency and 4) gets O himself fired up.
So let Rmoney have it, it will be blunted and forgotten quickly, protesting otherwise looks like sour grapes and “unskewered polls” territory.
Handy
Fight – fight – fight and never ever give up or relent no matter what happens. Win or lose we have to always look to a better future and to make it happen takes hard work. It is never easy and nothing happens if we don’t try.
“When I despair, I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won. There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall. Think of it–always.”
Mahatma Gandhi
Bob h
@MTiffany: presumably many millions of Adelson/Koch bros. donations have been spent on attack ads citing “42 months of unemployment above 8%” which now have to go into the trash can.
becca
@CaliCat: I agree.
Romney film-flammed, steamrolled and was so genuinely gleeful about firing BIg Bird that it took everyone in the room aback. While O was not at his best, Romney won on chutzpah and that’s it.
The village idiots need a horse race.
BTW- there’s a part of me that was relieved something not-good happened. I was getting worried about complacency setting in.
Always vigilant!
Baud
I like the attitude on this thread.
We have not yet begun to fight.
ImJohnGalt
@Valdivia: Hey, my wife and I are going to be there in two days. Any recommendations for sights/restaurants/bars?
Frankensteinbeck
Pffft. There is nothing to worry about. The situation has not actually changed since before the debate. Romney’s ‘bounce’ is based entirely on three Republican polling firms who registered such a ridiculous jump it dragged up the other polls, which showed no significant movement and a possible small bounce for Obama. Those three polls weren’t just suspect, they were absurd. Romney has 34% of the AA vote in AZ? Yeah, Hell of a margin of error there.
The Punditocracy is crowing over a Romney smash victory. They are as utterly out of touch with actual Americans as they were before the debate. I watched the debate. It was dull and unexceptional on both sides, and people heard what they were inclined to hear. It turns out for most people that was ‘Romney wants to fire Big Bird.’
The only actual bad thing here is that the GOP stopped loathing their candidate. They’re fickle, angry purists and Romney is the world expert in stepping on his own dick, so that may not last.
MTiffany
@Bob h: Wasting Adelson/Koch Birthers money? I hadn’t looked at it that way. Hehehe. Dee-lish.
Bill E Pilgrim
It’s also possible that the whole notion of “winning” a debate is a fairly absurd way to think about it. Two people stand near each other and debate the topics surrounding the election, which gives people a chance to see in more detail what each of them thinks.
We see attack ads all the time where all they do is over-the-top smears of the other candidate, this is supposed to be something other than that.
Mitt Romney of course turned it into just more of that, and since to the pundits everything is measured by who was more aggressive, and even Obama supporters were jumping on the “OMG Obama “lost” bandwagon, that just gave more fuel to the idea that there was some binary win/loss and that Romney won something.
While watching I thought “Hmm, Obama seems strangely sort of subdued” but watching it turn into this “lost!” meme has been just ridiculous.
amk
@BruinKid: Well done. If you could keep it up for another 4 more weeks, it would be great.
This election will boil down to dems moving their ass to GOTV. The thugs need no such coddling.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@ruemara: Thanks for volunteering. It’s important and how we’re going to win in November.
Get some help with your bills if you need it – it’s available in many areas (with luck yours is one). We all pay taxes and we help others when they need it. Don’t let pride get in the way of getting help when you hit a rough patch. It doesn’t help anyone to fall too far down a hole.
Thanks again, and hang in there.
Cheers,
Scott.
The Ancient Randonneur
That explains quite a bit. But I still love ya brother. You expect your guys to lose–until they win. I’m a Yankees fan so I expect them to win–until they lose. But as a Yankees fan I expect to have great players giving it their all and not just expect to win because we won it before. The Democrats are in great shape, they have some very good candidates, and if the campaigns and volunteers keep a level head, continue to press on with canvassing, phone banking, and GOTV we’ll be just fine.
amk
President Barack Obama narrowly leads Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in Colorado, 47-43, according to the Colorado Voter Poll, released by the University of Denver on Sunday, Oct. 7.
Good news, no ?
Chyron HR
Rasmussen Tracking 9/14 – 9/16 Romney +2
Rasmussen Tracking 10/3 – 10/5 Romney +2
Yes, folks, according to the GOP-approved pollsters, Romney got a 5-10 point debate bounce localized entirely within a handful of swing states, that somehow had no effect nationally. If you believe that, then you were probably voting for Romney anyway.
pattonbt
@amk: And I have already submitted my overseas absentee ballot (for Obama of course) in Colorado!
Colorado will stay blue by a fair enough margin.
Ron
I am not too worried about Obama’s chances (and canvassing for him in NY is kinda silly). OTOH, while I haven’t seen a single poll, everything I read is that Nate Shinagawa has no chance to beat Tom Reed here, and that depresses the crap out of me.
Kathleen
At the risk of sounding all “11th Dimensional Chess-y”, I think Romney’s debate “victory” may result in him becoming more overconfident and arrogant, which may result in the biggest gaffe or mis-step in his campaign. I don’t believe that was part of Obama’s strategy in his debate performance, but it may be a fortuitous consequence. And CaliCat, I bleed Cincinnati Red but if I do love the Giants, too. If the Giants do win this series I hope they go all the way.
OGLiberal
@amk: That is good news. Performed 10/4 and 10/5, post-debate. Good pollster – Selzer. And Obama has nice lead with indies.
Rex Everything
Also too, if we win, registered Democrats nationwide can continue to not give a shit about state violence.
the Conster
Re Red Sox fandom, DougJ:
Charlie Pierce explains it all for you.
Shawn in ShowMe
Clearly Romney plans to lie aggressively in the next two debates as well. And I doubt Obama will call Rmoney a liar to his face. That’s not his style. So I’m assuming two more Rmoney “victories” that impress Jack Welch devotees and turn off women.
Anya
@Chyron HR: Last night I read that one of those polls has Romney winning the AA vote in Colorado by 9 points. I don’t remember where I read it so no linky but that’s laughable.
kay
I was worried enough that I went out to the field office at 10 AM yesterday although I wasn’t due in until 2.
No one else was as worried as I was, and our “locals” have been at this for a while, decades for many of them.
They think the 47% tape was a gift that changed the numbers and this is a set-back that changed the numbers. They didn’t expect the gift but they did expect a set-back or screw up of some kind on our end, they’re like that, so that seems to be the reason for the stoic acceptance/ moving on.
Generally, “take the good with bad, things happen, people screw up” type attitude.
Also, no VOTER ( not volunteer) I spoke with mentioned the debate. I just thought that was
interesting.
Arm The Homeless
Here is a slice from the enlightened South:
Yesterday while at the yearly Asian Festival, I noticed that OfA and our county office of elections had installations and walkers out registering people. We have a pretty large and diverse community from all over Asia, thanks to FSU being a prodigious research institution. Many of these folks are well respected and afluent within both the college and business communities. No sign of a GOP push-back there.
I went to the Po’ Boys a few blocks down, just adjacent to the Capital Building, and well known lobbyist and politico watering holes. They were having a pre-game for the Noles embarrassing loss, where I saw a single person registering festooned with wingnut-flair. Bless his heart.
I don’t see much mobilization from the local GOP this year. Even in 2008 they were contesting this county, despite it being a pretty solid 60-40ish blue area. Not even Rmoney commercials, only that silly Rove chart spot. No trips to Jax or Pensacola every weekend, nothing but occasional junkets for surrogates to fill in the Villages. I don’t see much fight around here, and Florida is essential to the GOP this time around. I can only speculate as to how the Sproul registration fraud is playing in the wider community, but this might be the real-world impact of having their registration capacity all of a sudden etherize.
LAC
@Frankensteinbeck: the best assessment I have read on this thread. Thank you!
And Red Sox fan? I have seen your team play this season. Perfect metaphor for the Romney campaign: never in the lead, self inflicted damage, a lot of false hopes pinned to one event or another. Worry about them, but don’t waste handwringing on this campaign. Just continue being out there. We have been here before and Obama is still holding the winning hand.
Ksmiami
@Frankensteinbeck: My kids watched said it was boring. The end
eemom
Seconded.
Also too, someone mentioned Nate Silver. Nate Silver has really begun to irritate me, and I got into a FB argument about it the other day. The other person was basically saying it doesn’t matter what bullshit Silver spews in his columns as long as his numbers are rock solid, which as far as I understand it, they are. Good numbers=good man, was what this person seemed to be saying.
I disagree with that. I find it reprehensible that someone with the unique talent that Silver has, has chosen to pimp the horse race meme……and I just can’t get on board with the idea that you can take the numbers and leave the pimping.
Arm The Homeless
@Anya: It is pretty laughable.
Even granting that the largest increase in the state amongst any self-identifying subgroup of the AA community was those of ‘mixed-race’ heritage, and those folks may be much less strongly supportive of Dems, or more strongly aligned with Libertarian-ish thought, the uncertainty in that sample must be north of 20% in a state with only 5% AA population. Well below the 13% nationwide.
kay
I do think it’s a good sign that they rolled out the BLS conspiracy theory.
They can’t be all that confident if they’re joining with senile, corrupt plutocrats to discredit US-reported jobs numbers.
I think my favorite part of that whole thing is the deference media show to the senile, corrupt former CEO.
Jesus Christ. It’s cringe-worthy. I don’t care how much they pay media personalities on CNN or MSNBC or CNBC. It wouldn’t be worth it.
We’re supposed to take economic/ financial advice from these people? What a joke.
amk
A great new ad.
amk
@Arm The Homeless: enlightened south, eh ?
Great to hear that.
amk
@kay: egg.sack.lee. It was sickening. I worked once as a contractor for GE in 90’s. That was the first and last time.
Uncle Cosmo
Rmoney won the debate the same way the Seahawks beat the Packers on MNF: by committing a flagrant foul (many more than one in fact), bullying the referees in the area not to call it, & getting a home-team-discount TD call from the rest of a clearly overmatched (if not downright incompetent) herd of zebras. It counts in the standings, but every fan on the planet knows what really happened–& it would be a goddamned crime if at the end of the season it turns out to have meant anything significant, but it almost surely will not…so long as our team shows up with a will & takes care of bidniz. Which I am confident it will.
Oh, & BTW, Sawx fans out there? Orioles fan here. Cry me a fuckin’ river:
I’d be much more sympathetic if y’all hadn’t celebrated finally, finally, finally breaking the Curse of the Bambino by turning into total assholes.
Joel
You’re right to be nervous, DougJ. Obama conceded a needless defeat at the debates and while the good guys are still leading, we’re back to where we were after the DNC (decent lead), down from where we were after the 47% release (great lead).
I need to take a step back from politics, tho.
Shawn in ShowMe
@eemom:
If the cost of having a liberal statistician at the New York Times is for Nate to serve a side of bullshit with the steak dinner, then pass the salt.
I’d like to believe that I wouldn’t compromise if offered a lucrative, influential position within today’s power structure. That kinda stuff only happens in Aaron Sorkin’s wet dreams. In the real world, you have to be willing to play ball to even get offered the job.
kay
@amk:
I don’t know why he was credible anyway, but they created him, so I suppose they have to continue to pretend he has something to say.
There’s no moral hazard. He can say anything. It simply doesn’t matter. He’ll retain credibility, because the credibility he had was created out of thin air. “Facts” can’t touch it, because it wasn’t based on facts to begin with.
We really are post-truth. I’m not sure normal people know how to operate in an environment that has no touchstone or connection to reality. I think they drop out or join the crazy, one or the other, which may be the point of this excercise.
Bill Arnold
@CaliCat:
What particularly irritates me is that Romney was off by an order of magnitude in one of his “I know more about business than you do” assertions, namely the failure rate of the green business funding. (Assertion of 50% of the total number of investments vs 9% in reality, and vs less than 4% of 16 billion in loan guarantees and less than 1% of the 90 billion total. http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/numbers-schmumbers-9-about-half-isnt-it)
This invalidated his who minute long tirade.
eemom
@Shawn in ShowMe:
dunno about that. Krugman doesn’t shovel any shit.
Arm The Homeless
@eemom: Sure, but they aren’t exactly hanging their hat on Krugman either.
Nate has a lot more editorial control over his site, than any of their stable of partisans and influence peddlers. Nate kept control of his brand, rather than just being absorbed into the editorial collective. But I take your point, and in abstract agree with it.
Shawn in ShowMe
@kay:
That senile, corrupt former CEO is emblematic of a happier, glorious era for Real ‘Muricans. Raygun walked the earth, the Soviet Union was laid out on the barroom floor, homos stayed in the closet, the pushback for MSM narratives was virtually non-existent. Of course a swaggering old fossil who preached the gospel of Real ‘Murican exceptionalism will be shown deference.
Smiling Mortician
@amk: That one’s gonna leave a mark.
Shawn in ShowMe
@eemom:
Krugman began writing at the The New York Times in 1999. The Old Grey Lady’s attitude has drifted decidedly rightward since then.
MTiffany
@Shawn in ShowMe: And tomorrow morning when Jack Welch shows up on set Joe Scar will dutifully get down on his knees and give that corrupt old fossil a big wet BJ live on camera. There will be much talk of ‘raising questions’ about Obama’s predicted unemployment number coming to pass right before the election, but oddly absent will be any discussion of GE’s cooking the books while Welch was CEO.
Bring a tarp and a rain poncho Mika: the saliva is gonna be a-flyin’.
Don’t remember where I originally came across this link. My apologies if Ballon Juice was the original source…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/ges-jack-welch-on-bls-book-cooking/
AxelFoley
@CaliCat:
Thank you. Supposed Obama supporters need to get off this bullshit meme. Seriously. The next person that says that, I’m gonna kick them in their throat. Stop pushing this bullshit.
Trakker
I’m only nervous because of how high the stakes are this year. Romney knows almost nothing about government and governing at the national level and will be clay to be molded by the hands of the Tea Party. Can you imagine another Scalia on SCOTUS??
And I don’t trust the Republicans who will steal the election any way they can if it is close.
McJulie
There is no readily agreed-upon standard for deciding who won a presidential debate, which is why I think the “Obama did, in fact, lose, just admit it” narrative is bogus.
I thought the debate (if you ignored substance) was more or less a draw, with Romney seeming frantic and Obama overly subdued. Why does everyone think Romney won? I guessed immediately that it was because Obama supporters were disappointed and Romney supporters were relieved. Obama has been better. Romney never has.
On reflection, I think what it mostly did was put a break on the “Romney, what a loser” narrative. It’s the first thing he’s done right in weeks, including the convention. But its the first of three debates, and it’s difficult to imagine him “winning” the next two. Obama will be better prepared for Romney’s debating style next time, including the fact that he might suddenly reverse every position he’s ever had and deny he’s ever thought anything else.
I think Obama went in prepared for regular politician lying, and got sociopath lying instead.
kay
@Shawn in ShowMe:
Yeah, well, I was THERE for some of that and that’s all bullshit. It’s tough to discredit something that was never true to begin with :)
Listening to them, I want them to drop the qualifier. Drop the “Jack is a great Guy” or “Jack is a bidness genuis”. Just state the claim. A simple declarative statement. Why is that so hard? I don’t have a fucking relationship with this horrible person. I’m not drawing on that, and I resent them supplying one. Leave it OUT. Resist the impulse to drop to your knees before powerful rich people. What did this Romney surrogate SAY? Then STOP talking. I’ll handle the evaluation of the claim.
Sparrowgal
I enjoyed Jason Linkins’ opening salvo this morning, as he engages with the spinning heads on Sunday teevee:
Kind of sums up the week pretty neatly, methinks.
AxelFoley
@Joel:
[kicks Joel in his throat]
I told you to cut the bullshit, didn’t I?
kay
@McJulie:
FWIW, my take on the debate itself, after thinking about it, is that Obama was in a very difficult position. It’s the equivalent of switching briefs 20 seconds before the trial starts. That’s made worse by the fact that his opponent has no tie to truth.
I don’t agree with the “liar, liar, liar” strategy, so I’m glad he didn’t do THAT. That’s a loser, IMO.
My complaint is that he didn’t grit his teeth when faced with a very tough situation and show some energy. I see how hard it was. I get that. I expect him to recover enough to give it a shot, despite an almost-sure “loss”. I expect him to limit the damage. I knew he was in trouble. He had to swallow that and energetically present HIS case.
Sometimes you just have to make do, rather than focusing on whatever it was that you had expected. So, that’s my beef, but I don’t see any upside to dwelling on it.
Spatula
Honest question: When you write things like this, are you in earnest? Or are you self-mocking?
It’s hard to know.
Joel
@AxelFoley: Look, style matters. It just does. Elections aren’t rational.
gogol's wife
@kay:
This is pretty much where I’ve ended up. My husband the Independent loved Obama’s presentation, though, so go figure. Some people don’t like the aggressive approach.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Spatula: ObGalaxyQuest: Never give up! Never surrender!
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish LIteralist
@kay:
Apparently MoDo has a column today calling on Obama to imitate her (IIRC) ex-boyfriend’s fictional president. Jed Bartlett would just call Mitt Romney a liar on state, and Willard would collapse in a whimpering heap. I’ve never seen West Wing, I don’t know why it doesn’t appeal, but it doesn’t, But I will endorse this strategy when Aaron Sorkin has the power to script the response of the media and the ‘swing voters’
Also, too, Newtie admitted Willard’s tax rhetoric was a brand new and fraudulent platform. Newtie thought this was a good thing.
kay
@gogol’s wife:
I don’t remember a presidential candidate ever doing that before, completely re-inventing his positions at a debate, so I think that’s extraordinary. I think Obama should get “this has never happened before” as a qualifier to why he couldn’t accept the situation and move on to “lose, but limit damage” because I think that’s
true.
Oddly, I disagree with everyone who says he should have shown more anger. I think he was really angry, knew what had just happened, and went to elaborate lengths to hide it. I think he had to expend a lot of energy to stay in control, actually. That’s fairly common with disciplined people, I think, to tamp it down too far when it’s BIG.
I was hoping he’d get the freedom that comes with knowing you’ve been dealt a very bad hand. That happens to me when something goes very wrong at a hearing. I’m going to lose whatever happens, so I no longer give a shit about sticking to The Plan. It can be almost giddy.
Anyway, tough situation.
Violet
@kay: I’m surprised the Obama team wasn’t prepared for Mitt to utterly lie the entire debate, change his position completely from what he said five minutes ago, hand out money from the podium, swear that he’d house all seniors in palaces, promise women they could have whatever birth control they want, etc., etc.
Romney has a history of lying about EVERYTHING and changing his position to whatever is most convenient at the time. I know it. You know it. Anyone who pays attention know it. Why didn’t the Obama debate team prep him for that possibility?
I get that he wasn’t prepared for Romney to lie like he did, and that it was unprecedented. What I don’t understand is how they didn’t at least have some type of plan for that eventuality.
kay
@Jim, Foolish LIteralist:
I don’t read her because I think her columns are always ABOUT her, so not that interesting, but I think she’s wrong.
There’s a reason Presidents use surrogates to call the other guy a liar. He wouldn’t have pulled that off. It really IS unpresidential. Plus, it risks whinyness and complaining, which no one likes. Obama never sounds good when he’s complaining. He sounds preachy and put-upon.
kay
@Violet:
I think “lying” and “switching the entire premise” are two different things. I don’t see the value in repeating “that’s not what you said before” for 90 minutes. The underlying assumption of these things is viewers don’t know what he said before. Obama can’t fact-check for 90 minutes. That’s a loser. He dropped that almost immediately after the opening question on taxes, and I think that was a good call. It’s unsustainable. It won’t be effective over and over.
Another Halocene Human
@Uncle Cosmo: Somewhere, somehow, Samuel Clemens is smiling. That story was a thing of beauty.
Another Halocene Human
@Arm The Homeless: Hey, I know that Po’Boy’s–it’s next to the AFL-CIO! Working Families Lobby Corps, woooo!
Tally may be “enlightened” (govt company town and a couple of good universities will do that to you) but what isn’t enlightened is that it is nowhere near the population center of the state. It was, but that was before air conditioning when Central Florida was Seminole country.
If Fl were truly enlightened the capitol would be between Orlando and Broward.
But I hope you’re right and that brain-damaged Leonard Bembry wins in that new district. I hope voters remember Rick Scott and push back on the tea partiers. I hope the rabid dog North Central Florida Republicans start getting hauled in court to explain their dirty tricks campaigns.
Nah. Would never happen.
Another Halocene Human
@Rex Everything: Everyone knows that riding the third-party pony gets you that critical shift in public opinion and majority in the US Senate to close Gitmo and end the wars.
If only Democrats weren’t such selfish bastards, peace would break out, the partisan strife would end, and righteous bud would sweep the land, distributed for free by the rainbow green heart fairies, who would come out of hiding after the new dawn.
blingee
” I can’t lie, I’m getting nervous about the election.”
LOL…..folding like a cheap suit. I’m shocked…..NOT!
You and Cole are 2 peas on a pod. Nothing but jello for a spine.
eemom
@blingee:
Fuck off, literacy-challenged asshole.
Violet
@kay: I agree that President Obama couldn’t fact-check or call Romney a liar during the debate because it would make him look whiny. But it seems like there had to be a better strategy to deal with him than there was. A quip like, “Well, I wasn’t sure which Mitt Romney was going to show up here tonight” might have highlighted Romney’s “say anything” past, while immediately putting whatever he was saying in question.” I don’t know–that sort of thing isn’t my strength. But that’s why they hire people who are good at it.
AxelFoley
@Joel:
RMoney has no style. And obviously his foolishness last week didn’t matter much as the numbers stayed relatively the same, he’s taking heat for wanting to fire Big Bird and his debate performance got pushed off the front page by the good news re: unemployment numbers.
Matt McIrvin
I get nervous because I was a Walter Mondale fan, and my first presidential vote was for Michael Dukakis, and as a result I know in my heart of hearts that the fundamental truth of American politics is that my guy loses, and loses huge to general public ridicule.
Always. And I tend to believe this even when the evidence of my eyes is against it.