Tom Jensen makes a pretty decent observation about Texas winger Ted Cruz beating Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by 10 points last night in the GOP primary: Gov. Rick Perry just got pwnt.
David Dewhurst is obviously the biggest loser in the Texas Senate election tonight. When we first polled a hypothetical runoff match up between him and Ted Cruz the week before the primary, he led 59-34. In just over two months he managed to turn that into a pretty substantial defeat.
There’s another big loser tonight though and it has major implications for Texas politics looking toward 2014: Rick Perry.
Our final pre-election poll on this race found that two times more Texas Republicans considered an endorsement from Rick Perry to be a negative than a positive. 35% said they were less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Perry, 15% said they were more likely to, and 50% said they didn’t care either way. Dewhurst’s choice to spotlight his support from Perry so heavily is curious against the backdrop of those numbers.
The result tonight provides real world evidence of something that we’ve been finding in our polling for a while now: that Perry’s standing has been significantly diminished in Texas after his failed White House bid and that he could be in serious trouble if he tries for another term in 2014.
Even the losers are bigger in Texas, it seems. The Governor Goodhair show has imploded. Chuck Pierce has more on that.
This is a guy who believes that Sharia law is “an enormous problem” in the country today. This is a guy who believes that George Soros is at the bottom of a secret United Nations plot to eliminate… golf. (Here, of course, Cruz is immersing himself in the paranoid Bircher fantasies regarding our old pal, Agenda 21.) This is a guy who’s a nullifier, thereby putting himself on the opposite side of the Constitution not only from Barack Obama, but from Sam Houston, for chrissakes. This is the guy that a majority of Republicans in Texas believe should represent them in the Senate and they said so, not once, but twice. They wanted a crackpot. They got a crackpot. The real power driving this election wanted them to have a crackpot, so it gave them a crackpot.
Cruz seems to strike me as even more insane than Perry, and if that’s what it takes to win a GOP primary in Texas in 2012, I’m thinking the blue date for the state may get moved up by an election cycle or two.
You know, unless the GOP just decides to outlaw brown people.
The Moar You Know
Should never have let them join the U.S. in the first place.
Woodrowfan
“Why don’t you eliminate the entire Narn homeworld while you’re at it?”
“One thing at a time, Ambassador. One thing at a time.”
— Londo and Morden in “Revelations”
Mino
We’re gonna get Koch World good and hard with all the moderates being primaried out by Freedom Works.
Hope my sister likes it. She’s got a poors daughter, and a disabled granddaughter.
Oh, and as I understood it, Perry is already retiring.
Lee
I live in Texas and I have little doubt that Cruz will be our next Senator.
The only thing that might change that is if we get some attention (money & brains) from the DCCC.
Mark B.
Dewhurst had a big problem with being part of the long time Republican establishment. He was an effective leader of the Texas Senate, running things quietly by consensus building, pretty much enacting the entire right wing agenda without much of a fuss.
That isn’t what Texas’ right wing voters want. They wanted a extremist bomb thrower who promises to destroy democrats and lock them all up for thought crime. Dewhurst tried to play the game, going so far as to campaign at a Houston Chick-Fil-A to show them he stood with them on gay-hate, but he’s just not the firebrand that Cruz is. He’s a dull speaker, and not photogenic at all.
Bonus points: Cruz is crypto-Hispanic, and Tea Partiers can claim they’re not racist by voting for him.
Villago Delenda Est
@Woodrowfan:
Excellent, and appropriate, B5 reference.
The white crazies are fearful. Fearful that a brown majority will treat them exactly as they treated the browns.
Karma is a bitch. A bitch that laughs and laughs and laughs.
Mark B.
It was funny to watch the political ads. As the day became closer, they became more and more simple. Both of them were running against Obama and the ACA, but the last week, the ads, especially Dewhurst’s, just became rote recitations of simple phrases or keywords like “Dewhurst: conservative, will stop Obamacare … Cruz: Washington lawyer …” etc.
Cruz’s most effective ads were probably the ones where he hinted that Dewhurst might be moderate enough to talk to Democrats if he were elected.
dedc79
I think the New York Times needs to consult the dictionary on the definition of the word intellectual
butler
And how does the Old Grey Lady respond? With front page story touting Cruz as an “Intellectual Force“.
Apprently touting harmful, false, outdated and downright crazy ideas doesn’t matter so long as you look dignified doing it. I give it 2 weeks before Brooks is slobbering all over this guy.
Mino
@Lee: The DNCC recruited General Sanchez to run for the Senate!! Some help.
Citizen Alan
And I just shuddered a little. This is why I never took “The Emerging Democratic Majority” as the panacea that so many others did. The GOP can delay that majority for quite a while if they can enact Juan Crow laws. They can delay it perhaps indefinitely if they can enact apartheid.
MattF
Perry’s problem, to put it delicately, is that he’s a moron. So, supposing you’re a Texas Republican and you’re allowed a choice between a lunatic and a moron…
Culture of Truth
This is a guy who believes that George Soros is at the bottom of a secret United Nations plot to eliminate… golf.
Wait what!!?
Xecky Gilchrist
This is all because Perry said something insufficiently rabid about Mexicans in the Republican presidential debates, isn’t it.
Violet
@Lee: Yep. The Texas Dems aren’t organized enough and there isn’t a good enough candidate to challenge him. Maybe in a few years when one of the Castro brothers is ready, but not now.
Cruz was born in Canada to a Cuban refugee father and American mother, so he can’t be President due to that pesky born outside the US thing. Would that hurt his VP chances? The Cuban thing won’t win him a lot of Latino support in Texas.
Patricia Kayden
“You know, unless the GOP just decides to outlaw brown people.”
Isn’t Cruz one of those “brown people”? I think the fact that he’s Hispanic is a big draw for Repubs. “Look one of them is with our side.”
Redshift
@Violet:
Yeah. You can’t be VP unless you meet the requirements to be president.
ETA: Actually, no. Despite what the birthers claim, being born outside the US is not disqualifying if one parent is American.
PeakVT
@Violet: Does anyone other than Texas Republicans see Cruz as a Latino?
Mark B.
@Redshift: Well, his mother is a citizen, so I don’t see how he’d be disqualified, except by birther calvinball rules. He’s a citizen by birth.
Villago Delenda Est
@Patricia Kayden:
As Violet points out, Cuban father, American mother.
He’s white folk. The Hispanics in Texas know his loathsome ilk…might speak Spanish, but imagines he’s of Castillian noble blood, and infinitely superior to those mestizo types.
Cassidy
Ooh, Ooh, ooh…Can we make a trade? I would happily give Texas back for an Applebee’s gift certificate. That salad bar is awesome.
Yutsano
@PeakVT: That’s a very good question. Considering the internecine resentments south of the border, I predict Cruz will de-emphasize that as much as he can.
FlipYrWhig
In looking at the background on Cruz, I have a strong feeling that a friend of mine from high school knew him in college and thought he was about the weirdest human being he had ever met.
PurpleGirl
Maybe Texan Republicans see him as a Hispanic/Latino, but I doubt that Mexican-Americans or people from other South and Central American countries do. He’s Cuban; it’s just not the same thing. And in other places, like NYC or NJ, Cuban is Cuban is not Hispanic/Latino. Now, south Florida would buy him as Hispanic/Latino but then they’re mostly Cuban there anyway.
amk
Good. TX secede now.
David Hunt
Nope. Brown people are too useful to outlaw. Making sure that they can never vote is all you need to do. If you make sure that the disenfranchisement is due to some weird technicality, you get the bonus points of your state having more congressional seats and electoral votes without the downside of non-white people voting for evil Democrats.
That’s how I see the thinking here in Texas and it’s my impression they tend to represent the thinking of the GOP in general.
Litlebritdifrnt
@Villago Delenda Est:
All depends on when he was born and how old his mother was. There were some weird rules back in the 60s that the mother had to have spent so many years in the states after the age of 16. So the answer is not as clear cut as many think.
Citizen_X
@Culture of Truth: AGENDA 21!
Confused? Don’t go looking it up. It’ll only increase your confusion.
But here’s a Think Progress list of Ted Cruz lunacy, anyway.
Randy
So Rick Perry is now not crazy enough for the conservatives in my beloved state.
My new US Senator is a Rand Paul/Jim de Mint mashup and my new state senator says no abortion for you, rape and incest victims.
FSM save us.
catclub
Long article on TAPPED about what the Cruz election means.
Mostly changing of the guard relative to Rick Perry.
PurpleGirl
@Litlebritdifrnt: That thing about age 16 applied to naturalized citizens, i.e., the girl came from Italy as a child and became a citizen and then the family moved back to Italy for a few years. That woman had to spend a number of years here.
ETA: Ah, fun and games, fun and games. Gotta make me some popcorn.
amk
some funny mitt meme – relatable romney
Another Halocene Human
Speaking of political ads, hulu.com served up a really great Obama OfA ad during DailyShow/Colbert yesterday that featured Obama speaking to you about the difference between Romney’s tax plan and his.
Really good ad.
And it didn’t raise the volume or be really annoying, like most ads, which make me jump up from the sofa and do something else.
It was a such a great ad I wished Obama could stay a while and explain some other things. :))))
Linda Featheringill
@Mark B.:
What is “crypto-Hispanic”? I tried to look it up and found Jews that converted to Christianity under dire pressure [Marranos] and fled to the New World to escape the Inquisition. How does this relate to Mr. Cruz?
PurpleGirl
@amk: Wicked good. Thanks for the link.
Another Halocene Human
@David Hunt: YES. 3/5 compromise all over again.
Btw, you missed the biggie–all those felons who can’t vote, and not voting get extra Republican reps sent to DC from rural counties!!!!
Brachiator
@Mark B.:
What should be abundantly clear by now is that for the Tea Party People, fanaticism trumps racism.
And Cruz is young, once again complicating the lie that the Tea Party consists only of the white near dead.
And lookee here:
If Cruz were a Democrat, this would be evidence of his effete elitism. Where are his papers and records?
If the Republicans become resurgent and take the White House for the next two or more terms, look for Cruz to be fast tracked to judgeships and the Supreme Court.
Culture of Truth
I knew the UN was coming for our guns – I’m not an idiot.
But I’m new to banning golf. Does this include belly putters? Because if it does I will start using my rocket launcher on long putts.
PurpleGirl
@Linda Featheringill: Crypto as meaning hidden or secret. Here, probably meaning faux or phoney. Faux Hispanic, not really Hispanic.
Mrs. D. Ranged in AZ (formerly IrishGirl)
One thing I think Pierce is wrong on in this article. He reasons that Texans could not have voted for Cruz because he was Hispanic because of the very well-known voter ID proponent Abbot in Tx.
What pierce failstorecognize is the cognitive dissonace of Republican voters. They are perfectly capable of voting for Cruz because he is Hispanic but also support Abbot who has made it his mission to disenfranchise Hispanic voters. hell, from an incredibly cynical viewpoint, with those two politicians the GOP has all the bases covered. They can stop Hispanics from voting AND if they slip thru the crack and vote, the GOP gives them a Hispanic, albeit crazy, candidate .
kindness
I thought the making voting-while-brown illegal was the whole point of the Republithugs now.
Zifnab
Backlash against the stupid ebbs and flows in Texas. Every now and again, we go into “throw the bums out” mode, and kick some of the nutter Republicans to the curb. The state legislature gets a little bluer. The Republicans panic, run for the district maps, and cram through some absurd jigsaw map. And then the state goes harder red than it was the last time through.
I imagine that at some point big business will step in and quash Cruz if he does anything truly dangerous. But Exxon’s definition of “dangerous” and mine don’t really align too well. We lost a crop of moderate Republican state candidates as well this season and that’ll really unleash the stupid at the state level.
Mark B.
@Linda Featheringill: By crypto-Hispanic I mean he has a hispanic sounding name, but he’s not a Mexican or of Mexican descent. It’s a little unfair to Cruz, because I believe he is Hispanic according the census bureau definition, but I don’t think the Texas Republican voters see him that way.
As Purple Girl points out, this is an incorrect usage of ‘crypto’. Mea Culpa.
The Moar You Know
@Xecky Gilchrist: Bingo.
Scott S.
@amk: Siiiiigh.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mrs. D. Ranged in AZ (formerly IrishGirl):
He makes the assumption that logic and reason have something to do with their thought processes.
They do not. It’s pure lizard brain reaction to everything, with absolutely no critical thinking at all involved. Contradictions don’t have time to ever register with these drooling asswipes.
Brachiator
@kindness:
No, the point is to use the phony issue of illegal immigration to stifle Latino voters who might vote for Democrats.
@Mark B.:
This is nonsense.
Not all Latinos are Mexican or of Mexican descent.
And this has nothing to do with Census definitions, which don’t mean shit except for artificial voting demographics.
ericblair
@PurpleGirl:
Actually, no: it just crops up more for naturalized citizens, but natural-born citizens have to spend a certain amount of time resident in the US in order to pass citizenship along to their children. Otherwise you’ll get self-perpetuating colonies of citizens who haven’t lived in the US for generations, which is considered a Bad Thing. The exact rule depends on the citizenship of the other parent, the sex of the US parent, the year of birth, and a bunch of other complications.
However, if you’re a US citizen under these rules, as far as it’s ever been considered you’re a natural-born US citizen and eligible to be President. Nobody’s litigated it to the Supreme Court yet, though.
Mark B.
@Brachiator: I’m not sure what you mean by ‘this is nonsense.’ I’m agreeing with you that Cruz is Hispanic, although I disagree with you about the census bureau definitions, they are the actual standard for determining ethnicity. They are not meaningless.
I also agree with this statement: “Not all Latinos are Mexican or of Mexican descent.”
I was just arguing about the perception of Texas Republican voters, not his true identity. I’ll even back out my statement a little bit, I’m fairly sure his voters DID see him as hispanic [lower-case], but the safe kind of hispanic. Not one of those Mexicans.
kdaug
@Violet:
Yup. Houston (pop 6.22 million) already’s got a openly gay mayor (re-elected).
Don’t need to worry about Austin (duh).
SA is Mexi-Magnet for Latinos and the culture they offer.
And Dallas – don’t know enough to say, but first black mayor, albeit short-lived, looks like progress.
There’s still a shitload of Oil/Gas guys and corporate ranchers who do vote, but they’re businessmen.
They go sour on Perry, he’s gone.
bemused senior
Best article I’ve seen on the meaning of the Cruz victory (i.e. a repudiation of Perry) is from Abby Rapoport here:
http://prospect.org/article/ted-cruzs-deceptive-triumph-texas
scav
@Mark B.: crypt-o-human, well that could be updated to refer to zombie humanoid and the OED could just have to run to catch up . . . .
Mark B.
Where I differ with the article is that I really don’t see any fallout for Perry. Republican voters couldn’t connect the dots if you gave them a big crayon and made the dots a foot in diameter and placed them one inch apart. He’s a good campaigner who knows the right things to say to get the suckers riled up. Unlike Dewhurst, who is dull as dishwater in person. In 2014, nobody’s going to remember Perry campaigned against Cruz and he’s going to win by a good margin if he decides to run for Governor.
Scott S.
@Mark B.: Perry hasn’t always been real popular in Texas, believe it or not. I know only a couple of Republicans who like him, and most dislike him fairly vehemently. He’s been the recipient of some good fortune electorally because the last few general elections have been circuses with three or more major candidates to siphon off protest votes, including Kinky Friedman, who hoovered up a lot of unthinking Democratic votes, despite the fact that he may have been a ringer for Perry all along…
Another Halocene Human
@Brachiator: It’s that, but the crypto-Hispanic (maybe it should be stated as the inversion) thing is important, too. A different ethnic group designation and a different ideology, or maybe just not being Cuban (proven brand and all) would raise the specter of him being one of THOSE Hispanics. Cuban means no fears of “reconquista”, “la Raza” and all their other bugabears.
kdaug
@Zifnab:
Precisely what I was inartfuly getting at – Texas is a business state.
Oil/Gas guys, banking, and corporate ranchers.
To the extent they give fuck-all about politics, it’s directly related to the bottom line.
If they think Perry’s toast – he is.
Emma
@PurpleGirl: No, we wouldn’t. In South Florida, no “latino” refers to themselves as “latino.” We hyphenate — a LOT. “Latino” is what white people call us.
amk
@Scott S.:
the bane of the party
NotMax
@Patricia Kayden
May his political career implode as fully as it did with another person in that same situation, J. C. Watts.
PeakVT
@bemused senior: That was good, thanks.
@Another Halocene Human: That’s a great point.
Brachiator
@Mark B.:
This is not true. The federal government does not determine anyone’s ethnciity. The census categories are for statistical purposes, and to help determine congressional representation.
I see your point here. I’m from Texas, but I don’t know how voters perceived the candidates. No one in my family voted for Cruz. But there are Latino and black voters in the state, not just crazy Republicans. I don’t know what exit polls show about how people voted. But I would caution people from coming to easy conclusions about how voters perceive Cruz. I don’t know how he campaigned or how actively he campaigned in Latino voting districts.
And no matter how you slice it, the fact that he is beloved of the Tea Party and defeated the establishment GOP candidate is a big freakin deal. Unfortunately.
PurpleGirl
@Emma: Ah, thanks for the comment. I know how things are in the NYC area from personal knowledge, I’m not that sure about the situation for other groups in South Florida.
Mark B.
@Brachiator: Ethnicity is kind of a slippery concept, but you need some sort of way to nail it down for statistical purposes. Since it’s self-reported in the census, it’s even more slippery. I think we’re not too far apart on this issue.
My feelings about the perceptions of Texas voters are due to my experience of growing up in a white racist family on the southern Texas border, and my immersion in the culture. Anecdotal, for sure, so it’s just an impression. I’m no better at mind reading than anyone else, but I feel my experience gives me some insight.
Bubblegum Tate
No, no, according to the wingnuts, the lesson here is that “the TEA Party revolution continues” and that “the establishment should be trembling with fear.”
Mark B.
@Brachiator: I would also caution against coming to a conclusion that the Tea Party is now unbeatable in Texas. Quite a few Tea Party candidates lost, some by large margins. I think this was more a story about what a terrible candidate Dewhurst was, and how effective Cruz was in inflaming voters.
Brachiator
@Mark B.:
I agree that the fact that people self-report makes seriously undermines the idea that the census says anything especially meaningful about ethnicity, and certainly underscores the idea that it is NOT the government that is definining race or ethnicity.
Born in Texas, but later escaped. Still have family there. So I know what you mean when you talk about experience and insights.
@Another Halocene Human:
We are talking Texas here. For some, it just comes down to “Do you love Texas, Jesus and America?” In that order.
The Lodger
@PeakVT: Probably Florida Republicans (it’s that Cuban thing.)
Brachiator
@Mark B.:
Oh, I don’t believe this for a second. My point here is that the Tea Party is more than a bunch of old white men. Cruz and others groomed by the Tea Party will be around for years and will push the GOP further toward the right.
Some Balloon Juicers want to put their faith in a coming demographic shift which will take care of everything and sweep away most old guard Republicans. But the harder work of fighting the GOP and persuading people to vote for good Democrats (or progressives) is not going to end any time soon.
And as I noted, I can see a Republican president appointing Cruz to the federal court. This would be very bad.
Monty
@kdaug:
In general the Dem’s have setup fortresses in the Cities. San Antonio is a little iffy because of All the Military Retirees but it is Surprisingly Blue for a city with 4.5 Large Military Installations. Also El Paso is pretty blue for a City with 2 of the largest Military bases in the country right on its doorstep. As has been mentioned before Austin is Austin, Houston is Pale blue Trending hard blue, and Dallas is as Blue as it gets.
A few years back (05) Dallas came within an inch of electing a gay mayor and the next year the City and county Flipped to hard blue. So hard blue that the Sheriff is Lesbian and the DA is Black.
I think there is maybe one republican elected official left at the City and County Level. At the State and Fed level its a little different because of redistricting. The republicans have done everything in their power to dilute the Dallas Voting block.
Alas between all the Blue Cities are vast vast tracts of lightly populated nothingness. Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio are all separated by roughly 4 to 5 Hrs of driving at Highway Speeds with Austin being roughly in the middle. El Paso is roughly 650 miles from Dallas, 750 Miles from San Antonio, and Lubbock/Amarillo are closer to Denver than they are to Austin.
If Tx is going to go blue or even Purple its going to take alot more than what the Tx Dem party can provide.
Oh one more thing while I am on a minor rant to all those who wish Tx would be kicked out or leave of its own accord I don’t think your taking into account the rebel/insurgent movement of those who do not wish to leave the Union.
Things would get ugly fast.
Emma
@PurpleGirl: I’ve lived in Chicago, New York, Virginia and now Miami. In every place it’s different, for sure. In South Florida, “Latinos” are driven to differentiate from each other. We might say “latin” but not “latino.” And then there’s the division between Old Cuban (pre-Mariel) and New Cuban. Don’t get me started.
South Florida. The place that drove Carl Hiaasen out of business.
The Lodger
I was a census enumerator, and I can tell you the whole race/Hispanic identification thing is broke. Most of the people I talked to who identified as Hispanic listed themselves as “other” race (i.e. not white) and said their race was Hispanic, Latino, Mexican, Mexican-American, or other nationality or nationality-American. This is not what the feds had in mind when they set this identification up.
Mark B.
@The Lodger: Yeah, the whole thing about race and ethnicity being different dimensions pretty much goes right over most people’s heads. The most common racial designation among Hispanics is ‘white’. I don’t have your boots on the ground experience, but I have a lot of experience with the data. Given how badly the planning went during the Bush administration, the bureau did a pretty good job in 2010. Not perfect, but good enough for government work.
Pococurante
@Monty:
Greater Dallas differs from “Inside the Loop” Dallas. Inside the loop it tends to be slightly more blue with the red primarily old school “bidness” republicans.
Greater Dallas, especially the suburbs in the north, tend to be much redder mostly due to all the evangelical snowbirds that invaded us from the eighties until this past decade. This is the breeding ground for the tea party.
Dallas/Ft Worth exurbans like my household tend to polarize half and half between very blue and very red. Though the last two presidential cycles and according to the public contribution websites are trending blue.
horse dave
Regarding Perry:
1) Texans are embarrassed that other Americans think all Texans are idiots like Perry.
2) Aggies are embarrassed that other Texans think all Aggies are idiots like Perry.
These observations came from an A&M football blog. Perry is not popular except in Perry’s mind. His big business backers will dump him in a heart-beat if they sense any plausible challenge to their rule.