Mittamorphosis? Metamorphomitt? Metamittomorph?

Nothing can compare to the  superpowers of one Willard “Metamorphomitt” Romney, The Man Who Will Be Anything.

Appearing on CNN this morning, Romney Communications Director Eric Fehrnstrom was asked if he’s concerned that Romney may alienate general election voters with some of the hard-right positions he’s taken during the primary to appeal to conservatives. Fehrnstrom brushed this concern off:

HOST: Is there a concern that Santorum and Gingrich might force the governor to tack so far to the right it would hurt him with moderate voters in the general election.

FEHRNSTROM: Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all of over again.

Plastic Man’s got nothing on Metamorphomitt.  Granted, they both have their own jets and a couple of minions, but Mitt has better hair.

And yes, Ferhrnstrom really does think GOP voters are this incredibly stupid, because GOP voters are pretty much incredibly stupid.  Guess what?  Those votes still count (especially since the GOP is doing everything they can to disenfranchise everyone else.)  Why waste time assuming they’re not going fall into line when the only thing that matters is BEAT OBAMA(tm)?  Not Romney may be winning the GOP primaries (Not Romney beat Romney last night in Illinois 53-47) but when Romney morphs into Not Obama later this year, yeah, it’s a new ball game.  Fehrnstrom knows this.  Village knows this.  GOP voters know this.

Nothing shocking here.






120 replies
  1. 1
    Dave says:

    OT, but sweet baby Jesus, you can’t make this stuff up.

    Jason Mattera, on behalf of the Breitbart Babies, ambushes Bono of U2 to grill him on why he hides his taxes. Except Mattera interviewed a Bono impersonator instead.

  2. 2
    Betty Cracker says:

    Yep. I can’t wait to read Eponymous Eponymouson’s epiphany on the many virtues of Romney. It’s probably already up on the front page at RS.

  3. 3
    NCSteve says:

    He’s not assuming Republican voters are that stupid. He’s assuming that the 5-7% of the electorate that pays no damn attention to politics until two weeks before the election and, unfortunately, decide most presidential elections in this country, are that stupid. And, of course, he’s assuming the liberal MSM will develop a case of mass amnesia about any little odd things Mittens might have said during the primary.

    They’re assumptions that at least have some empirical basis.

    And Republican voters know the score. Unlike our clueless MSM, they know perfectly well that Democratic presidents keep the promises they make during the general, but Republican presidents keep the promises they make in the primaries. And for the same reason: because that’s what gets them reelected.

  4. 4
    MattF says:

    Ah, Mr. Etch-A-Sketch… The campaign ads almost write themselves.

  5. 5
    Bludger says:

    The old Romney would make a great Democrat. I have no clue which Romney will show up for the general election.

  6. 6
    Jess says:

    It all makes sense when you think of it as a corporate marketing strategy rather than a political campaign. GOP candidates like Romney really do see governing and campaigning as just an extension of the business world–and, sadly, they may be right in many ways.

  7. 7
    Brachiator says:

    And yes, Ferhrnstrom really does think GOP voters are this incredibly stupid, because GOP voters are pretty much incredibly stupid

    . It ain’t just GOP voters. I have talked to people who voted for Obama who are eager to vote for Mitt because they really really really believe that the country needs a pro-business president. Apparently, they didn’t get enough the first time around from that business genius Dubya.

    These people also are convinced that Mitt would not do anything to extend the GOP ultra conservative social agenda. Or they don’t care. These are people in California and a couple of other blue states, who look on with smug, detached amusement at some of what goes on in red states.

    They also don’t think that Romney would abolish the health care initiatives. Or, again, they don’t care.

    @Dave:

    Jason Mattera, on behalf of the Breitbart Babies, ambushes Bono of U2 to grill him on why he hides his taxes. Except Mattera interviewed a Bono impersonator instead.

    There is a Deity. And She has a sense of humor.

  8. 8
    NCSteve says:

    @Dave: Well, what’s wrong with that? According to Politifact, there’s no difference between Bono and a Bono impersonator. Four pinocchios to you for suggesting otherwise.

  9. 9
    aimai says:

    If the Bono Impersonator was male then Politifact would have to score Mattera as at least fifty percent right (shared Y chromosome) so that’s the same as being 100 percent right by their accounting.

    aimai

  10. 10
    Mark S. says:

    @Dave:

    That is too funny. And that guy is certainly a Bono impersonator, unless this guy used a time machine to interview Bono from 15 years ago.

  11. 11
    zmulls says:

    Either a corporate marketing strategy or a network programming decision. If you view the campaign as news/infotainment, you’re just reprogramming for the fall.

  12. 12
    joeyess says:

    The video is just begging to become an attack ad.

  13. 13
    amk says:

    @NCSteve: Bingo. On all points.

  14. 14
    zmulls says:

    Romney really looks like he feels entitled to be President, and is exasperated that he has to fill out all these forms before they give it to him. It’s like “What do I have to do *this* week…..can’t I just be President already?”

  15. 15
    redshirt says:

    I think it’s dawning on more and more folks that they can say anything they want now. The truth is a trifle, for Repugs at least, and a millstone for Democrats.

    I look forward to more honesty in politics now that they know the truth no longer matters.

  16. 16
    jibeaux says:

    @Dave:

    However, few have disputed his ability to get embarrassing excerpts out of those he interviews. This series of videos certainly does nothing to dispel that perception.

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha

    In other news, I interviewed my grandpa on why GWB tortured people! He said he didn’t have that answer! Damn, did I get an embarrassing excerpt!

  17. 17
    Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity says:

    Very few people pay any attention to how the sausage is made. Ferhrnstrom is correct.

  18. 18
    Amir Khalid says:

    Mitt Romney 2012: Forget What I Said Last Time.

  19. 19
    jibeaux says:

    @aimai: He looks sort of like Bono used to look, so that pushes it to “Mostly True.”

  20. 20
    Violet says:

    @NCSteve:

    He’s assuming that the 5-7% of the electorate that pays no damn attention to politics until two weeks before the election and, unfortunately, decide most presidential elections in this country, are that stupid.

    This is absolutely true. I had a conversation with a friend yesterday who is a smart woman but who doesn’t follow politics very much at all. I had to fill her in on the general Republican War on Women, including mandatory ultrasounds, eliminating insurance coverage for birth control (she was so angry at hearing that she almost drove off the road), Santorum saying women should have to have their rapist’s baby if they have the misfortune to get pregnant from the rape, and that women should have to carry a dead fetus if it’s after 20 weeks. By the end of the conversation she didn’t even believe me and just thought “it will never pass.” She has no idea. I think I hit her over the head with too much too quickly.

  21. 21
    jibeaux says:

    @Violet: I can’t muster any real objection to any of that or to NCSteve, but I am beginning to wonder if social media will ding that somewhat going forward. You might be on facebook strictly for the cat pictures, but unlike icanhazcheezburger, you will probably get the occasional bit of political info there unless all your friends are nonpolitical. A woman who is completely unaware of the RWOW is a woman who is not significantly on FB. My guess is twitter is the same although I don’t use it much. I dunno, it’s just a thought.

  22. 22
    kindness says:

    This is where we would expect to see outrage from the Teahaddists. We won’t. They don’t see being lied to as a dishonor of themselves. It just allows them to continue to blame government for being bad.

  23. 23
    Baud says:

    @Brachiator:

    These people also are convinced that Mitt would not do anything to extend the GOP ultra conservative social agenda. Or they don’t care.

    If there is anything more annoying the poor, young hipsters, it’s middle-class, middle-aged hipsters.

  24. 24
    Tonybrown74 says:

    @joeyess:

    I think all the Obama team (or his superPAC) has to do is create a series of commercials where he (Mitt) is arguing with himself over different positions to a bunch of topics. War, HealthCare, Women’s Rights, Gay Rights, etc..

    There is so much material you can probably have a different commercial each week during the summer until the election.

  25. 25
    Culture of Truth says:

    That’s what I’ve been saying.

    When the time comes Mitt will simply pivot again and lie, and deny, and lie about his denials, and then lie about lying about his lies.

    And the media will say both sides do it.

  26. 26
    MazeDancer says:

    Republicans are going to focus all their time, money, and hate of all people who are not wingnut white males on Congressional seats.

    They know they have weak Presidential contenders. So they will do everything and anything to insure they own Congress.

  27. 27
    Culture of Truth says:

    @NCSteve: It was “Mostly Bono”

  28. 28
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    The problem the Rmoneybot has is that even if you do shake the etch-a-sketch after the convention, the drooling 27% will just stay home unless they’re fed a steady diet of red meat during the general campaign, which only alienates the Rmoneybot from the mushy middle.

    So he’s fucked.

    I will drink in and savor every molecule of Veritas’ pain in November. It will be sweet.

  29. 29
    Daaling says:

    GOP voters are pretty much incredibly stupid.

    Fixed

  30. 30
    Daaling says:

    HaHa,

    Cole trying to copy that orange sites theme. The guy is simply incapable of independent thought.

  31. 31
    Elizabelle says:

    @jibeaux:

    I think Fehrnstrom’s take is too cynical, and it’s what you’d expect him to say, looking at the cards he’s been dealt.

    Agree with NCSteve and Violet about the low information voters, but don’t forget that a lot of the GOP primary campaign has been the Terry Schiavo case, on steroids. That played really badly with people who want to make their own decisions for their families.

    There are a lot of people out there who rely on contraception, want to make their own choices and want contraception to be available for their daughters.

    They don’t think higher education is for snobs. They want their kids to be able to get a good job, and those with high schoolers are looking at college expenses that have soared since they were college age.

    Maybe most of ACA hasn’t taken effect yet, but even those with good employer-provided insurance could lose it, and they probably have heard from friends how expensive COBRA is. A lot of ACA’s provisions are popular, hence the need to demonize it at every turn.

    I think we can reach the low information voters we know (and encounter), but will probably have to do it in small doses. (Violet’s story is interesting; can’t hit them with too much or the defenses go back up, at least temporarily.)

    The truth is on our side on this one, and Romney cannot outrun clips and video and where he’s gone to appeal to the lunatic GOP base.

    So yeah, Fehrnstrom thinks he can pull etch-a-sketch.

    Would you want to be in his shoes?

  32. 32
    catclub says:

    @Violet: “He’s assuming that the 5-7% of the electorate that pays no damn attention to politics until two weeks before the election and, unfortunately, decide most presidential elections in this country, are that stupid.”

    But these people also do NOT look at the present administration and think “Those people are VIOLATING OUR SACRED CONSTITUTION”, they think … “meh”.

    and “meh” gets re-elected by that uninformed 7%

  33. 33
    ThatLeftTurnInABQ says:

    @Violet:

    By the end of the conversation she didn’t even believe me and just thought “it will never pass.”

    I run into this problem all the time. If others have better techniques for dealing with this toxic shock syndrome, let me know.

    The best I’ve come up with is to patiently try to explain that (A) these ideas may sound crazy but they won’t remain that way if people don’t turn out and punish this behavior at the polls, and (B) the Right uses a broad-spectrum strategy of pushing their crazy ideas on multiple issues and at multiple levels (Federal and state and local) and spanning multiple juristictions, all at the same time. They know that most of this stuff will get voted down but if they keep pushing it then eventually more and more of it will get thru the defenses, and in the meantime this stuff gradually gets mainstreamed (with no small thanks to the MSM for that) because they keep bringing it up over and over and over again until people get worn down by it.

    I think with the GOP’s War on Women this year they have given up on using a slow Lobster-in-the-Pot strategy and instead gone so far with their overreach that this time around we have a unique opportunity to make this stuff really toxic for them. But that will be the case only if the GOP is overwhelmed at the polls this year. If that doesn’t happen this year, then I think women and their male supporters will have passed up a huge opportunity to make women’s rights a Third Rail in American politics, an opportunity we may not get back for a long time.

    This really is a crunch-time election.

  34. 34
    catclub says:

    @Villago Delenda Est: Mara Liasson was saying on NPR that “Yes indeed, the GOP will unite after the primaries behind Mitt”,
    but she did NOT say that evangelicals would be excited about voting for the Mormon, and would get out and knock on doors and campaign for him.

    Compare what Hillary did in 2008, after the convention, to what Santorum or Newt will do. I can hope that the hatred by his fellow competitors, which Mitt generates, will carry through to the general.

  35. 35
    Daaling says:

    If you don’t like what you see,

    Just shake him vi-gour-ous-ly.

  36. 36
    eemom says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    The problem the Rmoneybot has is that even if you do shake the etch-a-sketch after the convention, the drooling 27% will just stay home unless they’re fed a steady diet of red meat during the general campaign, which only alienates the Rmoneybot from the mushy middle.
    So he’s fucked.

    Thank you.

    Have I mentioned recently that I’m sick of the endless series of ZOMG the republicans are UNSTOPPABLE Obama’s gonna lose we’re all gonna DIE concern trollery from esteemed FPer Zandar?

    Though I’ll grant this latest effort is a tad more subtle than yesterday’s ZOMG Jonathan Chait wrote a stupid column and THAT’s gonna pull the republicans across the finish line we’re all gonna DIE drivel.

  37. 37
    xian says:

    @eemom:

    Have I mentioned recently

    I’m sure you have.

  38. 38
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @eemom:

    Have I mentioned recently that I’m sick of the endless series of ZOMG the republicans are UNSTOPPABLE Obama’s gonna lose we’re all gonna DIE concern trollery from esteemed FPer Zandar?

    I think Zandar is just toying with the vile little invertebrate troll Veritas, myself. Give the maggot some hope, then crush his hopes with glee come November.

  39. 39
    kuvasz says:

    Yeah, the unique thing that Romney and Etch A Sketch have in common is that both are two-dimensional, and without depth.

  40. 40
    Calouste says:

    @kuvasz:

    And everything is in black and white.

  41. 41
    Clime Acts says:

    @eemom:

    Have I mentioned recently that I’m sick of the endless series of ZOMG the republicans are UNSTOPPABLE Obama’s gonna lose we’re all gonna DIE concern trollery from esteemed FPer Zandar?

    Bingo. What is the point of pointless posts like this? That someone “over there” lied or did something stupid and because of that, every one here is going to change their vote from Romney to Obama?

    Low-rent trollery is right.

    Is it racist to say so?

  42. 42
    Enhanced Voting Techniques says:

    Give me a break, then what is Romney going to do; spring out the REAL Romney that will wow the public?

    Next November it’s an incumbent who speaks well, doing an ok job verses your asshole CEO. They an’t going to vote for Mittens unless their are Republicans or in the asshole CEO class themselves. See Jerry Brown verses Meg Whitmen, California 2010.

  43. 43

    I’m just shocked there have been 42 comments so far and nobody has suggested the quite obvious “Mittamorpho” as the portmanteau of choice in this situation.

  44. 44
    Zandar says:

    Have I mentioned that I don’t really give a shit? No? Carry on. *trollface*

  45. 45

    @joeyess: The video is just begging to become an attack ad.

    I think it’s begging for a remix.

  46. 46
    kindness says:

    That thread went downhill fast.

  47. 47
    eemom says:

    @Zandar:

    And I don’t give a shit that you don’t give a shit. Yer shit’s weak, and them’s the facts.

  48. 48
    wrb says:

    my thought on this was in a post on the last thread

    I’ve been wondering whether any of the crazy from the primaries will stick to Romney once the general starts. There are reasons to doubt that it will imo.
    This poll gives some hope. Romney’s big strength is that everyone knows that he’s a flip flopper and panderer. They don’t believe that he’s really for government-ordered rape or that he hates latinos. He may be strengthened by the negative adds his opponents are running. They are drumming the message that he is not a “real conservative” (doesn’t really believe the crazy ugly stuff) into everyone’s mind.

  49. 49
    Zandar says:

    No, that’s your opinion. But thanks for playing.

  50. 50
    Clime Acts says:

    @Zandar:

    Have I mentioned that I don’t really give a shit? No? Carry on. trollface

    Yup. A real intelligent, thoughtful, high quality contributer to the front page, you are.

    Is it your position that you should be able to post any kind of childish, repetitive crap here; and that no one should be allowed to comment negatively in response?

    And your best response is “Troll!”

    How old are you?

    Quick! Email Cole for bannings!

  51. 51
    eemom says:

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    Give me a break, then what is Romney going to do; spring out the REAL Romney that will wow the public?
    Next November it’s an incumbent who speaks well, doing an ok job verses your asshole CEO.

    Another good point. All this bullshit angst, and Obama hasn’t even really gotten into campaign mode yet…..not to mention his impeccable track record of blowing shit out of the water when he does.

    I don’t underestimate the power of the republican machine — never have, never will. But it is NOT invincible, as has been proven time and again. They are well and truly fucked this time around, and this pitiful p*ssy ass whining otherwise is just grating on my nerves.

  52. 52
    Martin says:

    I liked the comment comparing Mitt to a Decepticon. Someone should do that up as an ad.

  53. 53
    Knockabout says:

    NOW can we demand Zandar be removed from the front pagers Cole? Seriously, how much more embarrassing of a fool must Zandar be before you listen to you readers and get rid of him?

    He’s turned out to be ten times the mistake ABL was. Just cut your losses. He’s a joke.

  54. 54

    Any action on the proposition that Romney fails to beat McCain’s 45.7? That he fails to beat Dole’s 45% of the two-party vote?

    There is not going to be a blowout. I’d take the under on Obama’s 2008 vote share and EV total in a heartbeat.

  55. 55
    Rommie says:

    @Clime Acts: And yet he gets a key from JC for the front page. Is that what you really want, to take the Balloon Juice balloon for a spin?

  56. 56
    Elizabelle says:

    @wrb:

    Interesting point, and how low information types — like Violet’s friend — might use that to comfort themselves about voting for Mitt for president.

    A balm for their cognitive dissonance.

  57. 57
    eemom says:

    Case in point from here in fucking VIRGINIA, of all places.

    Note that, contrary to much emmessemm CW, even having our so-called “popular” fucktard governor on the ticket doesn’t help the Romtron.

    But by all means, carry on with the handwringing.

  58. 58
    AA+ Bonds says:

    FEHRNSTROM!!! *shakes fist*

  59. 59
    eemom says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    Yer on. My money’s on blowout, and I am not a betting man.

  60. 60
    WereBear says:

    I gotta say, I think this “inside baseball” thinking often bites them in the behind. Remember the outcry over George HW Bush not keeping his campaign promises, and his response was, “Who believes campaign promises?” How’s Mrs. Santorum’s “Rih doesn’t mean what he says” venture taking off?

    I believe that this year the Republicans are so outrageous they are going to generate a small cottage industry in folks hunting down all the crazy things they said… and Facebooking & Tweeting them all over again. It doesn’t matter if the MSM cares, or not. The communication channels have actually moved past them.

  61. 61
    AA+ Bonds says:

    if I were hosting this I’d LOL and be like, dude! don’t say that out loud

  62. 62
    Martin says:

    @eemom:

    Have I mentioned recently that I’m sick of the endless series of ZOMG the republicans are UNSTOPPABLE Obama’s gonna lose we’re all gonna DIE concern trollery from esteemed FPer Zandar?

    Except that the Obama campaign is issuing the very same warnings. Do they seriously think that they’re going to have a big fight on their hands, or are they just trying to keep Dems from getting complacent? Don’t know. But beating up Zandar for reiterating what Axelrod is saying seems a bit much.

    Personally, I think Obama is going to win this in a walk, but I certainly recognize I could be 100% wrong.

  63. 63
    AA+ Bonds says:

    everyone involved with Romney’s campaign has serious problems understanding the difference between what you say around a conference table and what you say into a microphone, including the candidate

    Considering these are Romney’s supposed strengths, public presentability and managing a good team, i dont know what the fuck, basically, they’d have done better by hiring me

  64. 64
    eemom says:

    @Martin:

    The difference is that it is Axelrod’s enormously important JOB to counteract complacency, take nothing for granted, and get out every fucking vote.

    A FPer on BJ? Uh, not so much.

    Anyway, there’s a difference between warning against complacency and mindless Chicken-Littling.

  65. 65
    Belafon (formerly anonevent) says:

    Remember this: The voters you all are worried about are the ones that Obama wrote his eighth grade level State of the Union Address for. I think he will handle these people as long as we do the GOTV.

  66. 66
    AA+ Bonds says:

    Usually the campaign spending the most is subject to the most attacks but at this point they are becoming a PR charity case

    Romney should let the cycle lose this story for a bit and then quietly fire the fuck out of some people

    He will not have a lot of time to “reset” before the general

  67. 67
    Zandar says:

    @Martin: And in 2010, being complacent got us Speaker Boehner and a Senate lead cut down to 3 seats changing hands.

    When I mention this, people immediately tell me to stop worrying and stop being emopants firebagger who clearly hates Obama and to just accept that it’s going to be a landslide and to shut up already, because Republicans running their multi-state voter suppression scam isn’t anything to worry about, and our well-informed electorate will dismiss the GOP out of hand anyway.

    I hope that’s true. Am I willing to bet my country on the body politic being over-informed as voters?

    Nope.

  68. 68
    AA+ Bonds says:

    Taking into account the order of the contests this is the stupidest-looking Republican primary season map we’ve seen in years

    It reeks of fuck-up

  69. 69
    japa21 says:

    @Martin: Another factor, in addition to the avoid compacency tact is that one of the (totally unjustified) criticisms of Obama from the Right is that he is arrogant. For the campaign to come out and say anything other than this will be a close, tough fight is to invite that tag actually resonating into something other than a synonym for “uppity”.

  70. 70
    Knockabout says:

    What arrogant bullshit, Zandar. You can’t be kicked out of here fast enough.

  71. 71
    eemom says:

    @Zandar:

    Exactly who the fuck was “complacent” in 2010?

    People didn’t vote, but that sure as hell wasn’t out of complacency. Everybody with their eyes open saw that disaster coming.

    To compare a midterm election that 98% of the idiot electorate doesn’t give a shit about to a presidential election is just another exercise in mindlessness.

  72. 72
    Belafon (formerly anonevent) says:

    @Knockabout: Stop projecting.

  73. 73
    wrb says:

    Except that the Obama campaign is issuing the very same warnings. Do they seriously think that they’re going to have a big fight on their hands, or are they just trying to keep Dems from getting complacent? Don’t know.

    Since according to TPMs composite Obama is only leading Romney 46.7%
    to 44.4% despite the country being blanketed with anti-Romney ads and despite the Republicans’ insane whirlwind of poo is hard to see how those who are sanguine aren’t floating in a shiny bubble over over the landscapes of unicorn and rainbow land.

    Too much time among the like-minded.

  74. 74
    kindness says:

    @Knockabout:

    NOW can we demand Zandar be removed from the front pagers Cole? Seriously, how much more embarrassing of a fool must Zandar be before you listen to you readers and get rid of him?

    I’m OK with Zander. It’s the BJ commentators that I find assholish. Let’s start with anyone but John acting like they should have any say at all over who gets front page rights.

  75. 75
    Clime Acts says:

    @Rommie:

    Is that what you really want, to take the Balloon Juice balloon for a spin?

    Oh god, no. Cole would fire me before the end of the first day.

    Generally speaking, it’s my opinion that BJ has lost its focus; which is basically Cole’s unique voice. Mainly because there are simply too many FP’ers, and too many of them are Bots posting similar weak, embarrassing bullshit.

  76. 76
    Daaling says:

    @eemom: Zandar has the same mindset as people in the media in general. They want a horse race. When it looks like it is going to be a blow out they start in with these ridiculous mental masturbation exercises.

    Then you have people like that guy (Jonathan Chait) in NY magazine coming up with that ridiculous Obama hit piece completely untethered from reality. I suspect the wider Obama’s lead over Romney the more you will see these desperate attempts to make it seem like more of a horse race.

  77. 77
    Clime Acts says:

    @Zandar:

    When I mention this, people immediately tell me to stop worrying and stop being emopants firebagger who clearly hates Obama

    Can you provide documentation that you’ve actually been accused of being the above? Cause I find that hard to believe.

    Thanks.

  78. 78
    amused says:

    Zander, I’m glad you’re here. The whiners are just jealous!

  79. 79
    chopper says:

    just wait until he mitt-astasizes.

  80. 80
    ThatLeftTurnInABQ says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    Any action on the proposition that Romney fails to beat McCain’s 45.7? That he fails to beat Dole’s 45% of the two-party vote?
     
    There is not going to be a blowout. I’d take the under on Obama’s 2008 vote share and EV total in a heartbeat.

    Generally speaking I agree with you here. The absolute floor for the GOP looks to be in the 44-45% range and I think Romney will have to work hard at fucking it all up to get below 45%. I don’t think the Romney organization will fuck-up the VP pick as badly as McCain did in 2008 for example.

    My best guess is that Obama slightly outperforms his 2008 vote share (by half a point or so) due to a larger margin of victory in solid blue states compared with 2008, while only matching or falling a little below the 2008 EV total (i.e. the GOP candidate wins back Indiana and that single EV in NE, while leaving the rest of the 2008 map unchanged). I don’t see the EV map moving much one way or the other; it would be nice if we could pick up MO which was close last time, and put a real scare into the GOP in GA and TX, but that seems unlikely at this point. All of which taken together means that the big prize that is really up for grabs in this election is the House and Senate.

  81. 81
    NCSteve says:

    Guys, just to be clear, I’m not saying counting on the 5-7% who don’t pay attention but still insist on voting to just buy whatever New Improved Campaign Dreck now in Deluxe Economy Size Willard spews is going to work for them. I’m just saying that’s their plan, it’s obviously always been their plan and it’s not even really surprising that they think they can blurt it out on cable without consequences.

    Personally, I think they’re not simply re-fighting the last war, but doing so and not even considering that they lost the last war.

    This campaign has always, from start to finish, been premised upon the principals and practices of advertising, but, rather the deeply sociopathic contempt for the public that reigns in P.R. firms-the people who try to convince us that Chevron is a force for good, B.P. is socially responsible, high fructose corn sweetener is good for us, and the Tea Party is a grass roots movement.

    That contempt is an exploitable weakness for an astute and well-funded opponent. Mittens has never run against one of those before. At least not since Ted Kennedy kicked his ass in ’94.

  82. 82
    The Sheriff's A Ni- says:

    @wrb: To be fair, the country – or at least the already primaried states – have also been blanketed by pro-Romney ads as well.

    Rmoney’s favorables are already in the tank and the fundies will be sitting on their hands just like they did for Bob Dole. 44.6% may very well be his ceiling.

  83. 83
    Judas Escargot, Your Postmodern Neighbor says:

    @Zandar:

    […]our well-informed electorate[…]

    (wipes the last few tears of laughter out of his eye sockets after reading this phrase)

    In so-called Real Life, I don’t know a single white male over 40 (besides myself) who doesn’t quite literally hate the President, and blame him for all our problems. And I’m not exactly Mr CTO hanging out at the country club every weekend. So (given personal evidence) it gets very hard for me to believe he’ll keep the WH, much less in a blowout.

    Why do they hate this President? They can’t really coherently tell you. But I can: They were trained to do so. Trained, like fucking dogs. Humans are pack animals by default. And nobody knows how to get the pack barking at the Other better than the GOP.

    It’s not that I think the GOP is run by unstoppable evil geniuses. It’s that I live in a country full of barely-functional, easily manipulated morons, all gifted with excessive, unjustified self-esteem… who bother to vote.

    Liberals ignore this at their peril.

    Carry on, Zandar. You’re all right (just don’t make fun of Cold Fusion again).

  84. 84
    Catsy says:

    @MazeDancer:

    So they will do everything and anything to insure ensure they own Congress.

    /petpeeve

  85. 85
    Tom Q says:

    @Davis X. Machina: I told you last night, you’re on. Your whole argument seems to be that a segment of the electorate really hates Obama — as if the same people didn’t hate him in 2008. And all demographics tell us there are fewer of them this time around: older white voters — the GOP bulwark — are dying off, and younger voters are replacing them — voters more racially mixed, and even the pure-white cohort among them massively more socially liberal than those they’re displacing. I also see no reason to believe black voters, faced with the prospect of the first black president not being re-elected, will turn out in lesser numbers than last time. The fact that the anti-Obama voters are REALLY REALLY MAD means nothing — any more than those of us who equally despised Nixon and Reagan did; our votes still only counted once.

    Polling averages right now are meaningless — partly because they are dominated by the daily right-tilted Rassmussen & Gallup numbers; partly because the improvement in the economy has only had 4-5 months to impact polling — another 6 months of similar figures will make Barack’s standing even stronger; and partly because final margins don’t tend to get set in stone still much closer to the election (Reagan didn’t lead Mondale by anything like 18 points through much of 1984).

    What people don’t seem to grasp is, by the metrics established fo presidential re-elections, Obama has the stongest platform of anyone since Reagan. He’s charismatic; he’s achieved significant changes; he’s had major foreign policy successes and no glaring failures; he’s stayed scandal-free; he has pathetic opponents. Literally the only thing working against a clean-sailing re-election has been the lingering results of the recession, and the past few months have shown how a shift there can improve the president’s fortunes substantially.

    I certainly understand the White House downplaying their position. The Reagan folk did, too; you want to encourage people to fight as if one vote was the decider. But the environmen is there for a smashing Obama re-election, something I think most will only realize in hindsight.

  86. 86
    CarolDuhart2 says:

    Davis X, I’ll take that offer.

    1) We’ve seen candidates that were charisma-challenged like Dole in 96. or doddering like McCain 08. But there was a core that was at least somewhat likeable and friendly. You knew there was a heart somewhere and maybe even a little passion. Romney comes across assholey and arrogant, and that’s before Obama’s people have taken some good shots at him. He already has shown he has a thin skin in friendly environments. Turn up the heat on this guy, and I bet he comes across in front of the camera as the whiney and arrogant princeling he is.

    2) His Mormon problem. Yes, some people actually dislike Mormons more and would rather sit out 4 more years of Obama before elevating a “cult” member to the highest position in the land.

    3) Obama has been quietly organizing and training folks and contacting workers and organizers. The folks on the Republican side in 08 so didn’t come out for McCain even though doing so might have kept Obama out of office, and those people were fired up about Sarah. In the end McCain had to use hired help just to knock on doors and make phone calls-and guess who filled those temporary positions? Romney has very little ground game as it is, and point number 2 will make it fewer.

    4) Yes, the Super Pacs will spend money on commercials. But I remember a passage from the Audacity To Win where David Plouffe and Axelod, who handled the DNC ads in 2004 felt the outside ad spending was useless because they had to guess at their effectiveness. SuperPacs won’t even have that closeness, cannot coordinate with the Party or Romney, so they don’t even have even that much feedback. Indeed, they may turn off voters by over-saturating the airwaves with irrelevant commercials.

    Don’t think that Obama can’t get people out. Right now, it’s an unopposed primary. His base has not abandoned him and will come out in full force when it counts. And what Democratic or even independent constituency is even slightly attracted to Romney?

  87. 87
    wrb says:

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-:

    Rmoney’s favorables are already in the tank and the fundies will be sitting on their hands just like they did for Bob Dole

    Could be. I find it a very fogged landscape. Everything can mean the opposite.

    Is the fact that Romneys unfavoriables are so high when he’s only 2.3 points behind Obama mean that he’s reached a ceiling or that he has nowhere to go but up?

    Does how how the fundies acted when Bob Dole was running against a southern white boy who could speak their language really indicate much about how they will act when the opponent is a Kenyan Muslin Alinskite and they are in pain due to the economy?

    Big crap shoot, imo.

  88. 88
    wrb says:

    @Judas Escargot, Your Postmodern Neighbor:

    In so-called Real Life, I don’t know a single white male over 40 (besides myself) who doesn’t quite literally hate the President, and blame him for all our problems.

    My experience too.

  89. 89
    Brachiator says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    The problem the Rmoneybot has is that even if you do shake the etch-a-sketch after the convention, the drooling 27% will just stay home unless they’re fed a steady diet of red meat during the general campaign, which only alienates the Rmoneybot from the mushy middle.

    why would the 27 per cent stay home? They are winning in the trenches, at the state level, still control the Congress, and will want to press their advantage. No matter how he campaigns, Mitt will make all kinds of promises to hard core Republicans, and his VP choice may cement his pseudo-conservative bona fides.

    The “mushy middle” doesn’t care much about what happens among wingnuts, and just want assurances that Romney will be a kind and benevolent pro business overlord.

  90. 90
    Mino says:

    @wrb: But all those women who voted for Sarah! might not show up after what they’ve been seeing.

  91. 91
    wrb says:

    @Tom Q:

    And all demographics tell us there are fewer of them this time around: older white voters—the GOP bulwark—are dying off, and younger voters are replacing them—voters more racially mixed, and even the pure-white cohort among them massively more socially liberal than those they’re displacing.

    What I’ve see is people who were open to him coming to hate him, largely due the pain and fear they are suffering as result of the economy and a dominant narrative, push by Fox and talk radio but repeated everywhere, in which it is his fault.

  92. 92
  93. 93
    eemom says:

    @Tom Q:

    Excellent. Said much more eloquently and politely than I’ve been able to manage.

    Srsly, as the child of a compulsive gambler I never touch the stuff — but if we got some kind of March Madness thingie going for November I am SO in.

  94. 94

    27% isn’t enough to win. It takes charisma and likeability to get the additional 23 percent, and once America pays attention, those numbers will plummet badly. Romney is no orator, indeed he comes across like that Amway salesman trying to convince you that buying his soap will make you rich too.

    Yes, a lot of white guys over 40 don’t like Obama. But their wives do and their kids do, and their black and Hispanic neighbors definitely do. And that’s enough to give him another four years in the White House.

  95. 95
    Zandar says:

    @Tom Q:

    Oh I think whoever wins the White House in November will do so by getting 370+ electoral votes. President Obama got 365 in 2008. It won’t be close.

    I’m 95% sure it’ll be Obama, too.

  96. 96
    TaosJohn says:

    Clicked on the Memeorandum link to this post, ended up at the EFFING MOBILE SITE…

  97. 97

    What people don’t seem to grasp is, by the metrics established fo presidential re-elections, Obama has the stongest platform of anyone since Reagan.

    This is still America, and both of Reagan’s opponents were white.

  98. 98
    TaosJohn says:

    After posting the previous comment (#96), was taken from the mobile site to the regular website.

    Dear John Cole: this is a technical issue. Please fix. Thank you.

  99. 99
    SenyorDave says:

    @wrb: In so-called Real Life, I don’t know a single white male over 40 (besides myself) who doesn’t quite literally hate the President, and blame him for all our problems.

    Both my brothers qualify, and they will definitely vote for Obama. But I generally agree that most white males dislike him, and blame him. Not for anything specific, but just blame him in general.

  100. 100
    Tom Q says:

    @wrb: When you say they were “open” to him, does that mean they voted for him in ’08, or merely that they didn’t hate him them? If the former, it’s an issue; if the latter, it’s meaningless (much in the way I thought the Lieberman VP pick in 2000 was useless, because everyone I knew who thought more of Gore for the selection then went out and voted for Bush anyway). White men over 40 were a Barack weak spot in ’08, and, as I said earlier, the degree of their hatred doesn’t change the math (it did in the midterm, but that’s an election susceptible to such things).

    eemom, you and I’ll just have to keep the faith here and rebut the Eeyores at every turn.

    As far as the Electoral College, it’s worth pointing out that Barack got his minimum 270 in ’08 solely from states he carried by better than 10%. That’s a hell of a baseline. Consider also that in the two previous (losing) elections, Bush prevailed (once legitimately, once not) by a thin margin in a single state. So the evidence is elections are currently played on a Dem-tilted field to start. It may be that, even with a wider popular vote margin, Obama is still limited to mostly his ’08 field — Teddy Roosevelt in 1904 won by almost 20%, but still lost most of the Solid South by overwhelming margins, and many current Souther/mountain states are similarly GOP-tribal. But if I were a Democrat I’d put some effort into AZ (home state guy not on the ballot this time + Hispanic fervor), MO (seeing it was that close), even GA (again, surprisingly close last time). And I don’t concede IN will slip back to the GOP; if Lugar loses his primary to the wing-nut, I think there’s potential for the state both presidentially and Senatorially.

  101. 101
    wrb says:

    @Tom Q:

    When you say they were “open” to him, does that mean they voted for him in ‘08, or merely that they didn’t hate him them?

    Both

  102. 102
    catclub says:

    @TaosJohn: Yep, JCole claims that the site redesign will fix it.

    If I excise the ‘www.’ in the URL I get the non-mobile site, but then I cannot post. I get the 403 error.

    I go back to the mobile version, post using its post function, and then all is fine. Irritating.

  103. 103
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Tom Q:

    What people don’t seem to grasp is, by the metrics established fo presidential re-elections, Obama has the stongest platform of anyone since Reagan.

    I’d say Clinton was stronger in terms of the economy (don’t have the stats at hand) and the MSM, if they were starting to turn on Clinton, hadn’t gone nearly as far in terms of fear of the Right, the rise of Fox and the smug, clueless new generation of talking heads (See Gregory, David). Also Dole was probably a weaker candidate in terms of presence, and (whatever his faults) not nearly so willing to demagogue as Romney, if Romney lacks Dole’s biography. And Bohner may be as bad as Ginrich in terms of policy and obstructionism, he’s not nearly as transparently buffoonish as a foil

  104. 104
    Tom Q says:

    @Davis X. Machina: But I’d argue the opposition-by-race thing already made its impact in 2008: even while the rest of the country swung about 10% Dem, the Appalachian valley went the other direction, and I doubt it was from a newly discovered loathing of the capital gains tax. And, demographically, we’ve had four years for that group to shrink in size. I don’t see why it should suddenly be decisive now.

  105. 105
    catclub says:

    @SenyorDave: The interesting thing about this is how ubiquitous those white males feel that they are. …. and they aren’t any more.

    I am one also. I feel like the over 40, white, Obama supporting group, needs a name, … like the “sisterhood of the traveling pants.”

    I have not read the book, but the title is evocative.

  106. 106

    @Tom Q: A black president in esse is a very different thing than a black president in posse. Desperate times (2008 and the meltdown) require desperate measures (a black president).

    I’d argue that it’s now safe, with the economy in neutral, or actually in first or second gear, and not in reverse, it’s safe to indulge impulses — atavism being one of them — that weren’t safe to indulge four years ago.

    Normalcy, to use a famous neologism, may be Obama’s enemy, not his friend.

  107. 107
    Judas Escargot, Your Postmodern Neighbor says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    This is still America, and both of Reagan’s opponents were white.

    Reagan also didn’t have a Congress actively trying to destroy the economic recovery in 1982-4. Or groups running ads like this against him.

  108. 108
    A Humble Lurker says:

    @Clime Acts:
    If you have to ask if something is racist…
    By the way, why was Mnem’s analogy inaccurate?

  109. 109
    xian says:

    @Clime Acts: don’t let the door hit your ass etc.

  110. 110
    xian says:

    @Catsy: schoolmarm-ism, also wrong

  111. 111
    Ruckus says:

    @Judas Escargot, Your Postmodern Neighbor:
    I’m a white male over 60 and I like the president. That’s one. I’ve not had one male over 40 discuss hating Obama either. One under 40 told me he is not voting but if he was he’d vote for Ann Rand’s dad, Paul. I’m not going to try to change his mind. One down.

  112. 112
    Tom Q says:

    @Davis X. Machina: I don’t agree with that premise — I think the number truly bothered by a black president who voted for him anyway in ’08 because of the meltdown is trivial, and having them switch this time won’t make much difference. There are ALWAYS oddball counter-voters — my favorite example: my father, who voted Nixon in ’60 and ’68, but McGovern in ’72. The bulk of voters will follow metrics: tossing out failed incumbencies, ratifying successful ones. As someone pointed out above, there are offsetting numbers of Hispanics and women who voted GOP last time and won’t be in ’12.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist: Clinton indeed had a better economy than Obama does…but he had a better one than Reagan, as well, without the staggering margin of victory, so obviously there’s more to presidential re-election than simply the economy. Those systems that rely 100% on the economy tend to get some elections wrong, whether the outcome (Bush was supposed to sail through in ’92) or the margins (though they were right Gore would “win” in 2000, they wildly miscalled the spread). I’ve advocated in the past for Lichtman’s Keys to the Presidency system — not anally, but as a good overview. He sees Obama, on overall metrics, having the clearest path to re-election of any president since Reagan — Clinton having had no significant domestic or foreign policy achievements, and being hobbled by the remnant of the Perot third-party vote.

    I know it’s not a widely held position, but I don’t think media has the impact many assume. It’s widely known the press of FDR’s time was openly hostile; that didn’t hurt him in the voting booth. Even the War on Gore didn’t prevent Gore from getting the most votes. Partisans will be revved up or down by media, but the swing voters tend to react to facts in front of their noses. An improving economy will trump whatever outrage of the day Fox drums up.

  113. 113
    Clime Acts says:

    @xian:

    No, I think I’ll stay, thanks.

    And after you’ve died a slow, painful death of some sort, in keeping with the kharma generated by your black and rotted soul, I’ll still be here commenting.

    But thanks for the well wishes.

  114. 114
    robert waldmann says:

    But intelligent independents won’t fall for the reset. The costly aspect of this Kingsley gaffe is the vivid simile. Please see my mitch a sketch efforts rjwaldnpmann.blogspot.com/2012/03/mitch-sketch-all-shook-up-to-learn-he.html

  115. 115
    robert waldmann says:

    Kinsley. Not Kingsley.Damn autocorrect and I’m a bit irritated with J K Rowland too, but very amused that Amazon corrected Michael K to first name of Kingsley Shacklebott. Or sax it Ben’s last name? Grimmer some point counterpoint.

  116. 116

    Url should be
    rjwaldmann.blogspot.com/2012/3/mitch-sketch-all-shook-up-to-learn-he.html
    Sax should be was
    Grimmer should be slang give me.

  117. 117
    IM says:

    1. Obama is the better candidate

    2. Obama will run the better campaign

    3. Based on the economy, Romney could still win.

    So I expect after a few more month of better economic numbers, a narrow Obama victory. 50’% to 48.5% or so. Could still be impressive, if a bit smaller margin then in 2008, in the electoral college.

  118. 118
    Mobile Grumpy Code Monkey says:

    Notwithstanding that they would pull the exact same shit (just not quite so openly), Newtron and Rih would be guilty of political malpractice if they didn’t play this up for the remaining primaries.

    “See, he’s been lying to you good people this whole time!”

  119. 119
    Mobile Grumpy Code Monkey says:

    Notwithstanding that they would pull the exact same shit (just not quite so openly), Newtron and Rih would be guilty of political malpractice if they didn’t play this up for the remaining primaries.

    “See, he’s been lying to you good people this whole time!”

  120. 120

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