A week or two ago, DougJ asked about the kinds of poltiical posts you’d like to see here, and quite a few of you asked for more local race coverage. Things just changed in my neck of the woods, so here goes:
New York is just about to get a final Congressional re-districting map [pdf], created by a federal judge, and it makes sense. In the last set of gerrymandering, for example, Rochester and suburbs was divided between four districts. Now, aside from a couple of outlying suburbs, the Rochester metro is in one district.
The surprise in all this is that Maggie Brooks, the long-time Republican county executive, is going to challenge 82-year-old Louise Slaughter, who’s held the main Rochester Congressional seat since the early 90s. Given that the towns in the new Rochester district went for Obama by 19 points in 2008, this seems like a suicide mission.
Louise is about the peppiest 82 year-old I’ve ever seen, she’s a popular local figure, and she is the ranking member on the House Rules committee, so Rochester would be throwing away a lot of seniority if they voted for Brooks. By current Republican standards, Brooks is a liberal Republican, who won her last county-wide election with ease over a fairly popular suburban mayor. In that 2011 race, voters split their ballots to elect Brooks while also electing a Democrat as District Attorney.
Republicans are probably betting that Brooks can pull the same trick in 2012, but the off-year county election is a completely different beast. The turnout is about a third of a Presidential year and the County Executive race is the top of the ticket. This year, Maggie will be running against the policies of the Obama Administration, which are fairly popular in New York. She’ll also be facing the stricter fundraising rules of a Federal race, and there are a lot more Democrats who come out to vote for President, especially in heavily Democratic inner-city Rochester.
That said, Slaughter hasn’t done much campaigning or fundraising during the last decade because her opponents have been placeholders. Her health is of course a major question, as is whether her staff is ready to run a real campaign. I doubt she has a wartime consigliere, and the county Democratic party has shown a real ability to underperform registration numbers with weak GOTV and general disorganization.
From the perspective of the Democrats’ attempt to re-take the house, a contested NY-25 race is not good news. Louise’s seniority will mean that the DCCC will put money into this race, which means less cash for challengers. There are a couple of tight neighboring races where local Democratic donors could have helped out, and now some of that money will go to Slaughter.
That said, I have to admire the Republicans’ recruitment effort here. If Democrats could consistently get big local names to run for Congress, even against pretty steep odds, we’d have a better chance of taking back the House.
If this kind of race analysis interests you, let me know in the comments and I’ll see if I can post about this race occasionally, and also get some guest posts from local blogs in other areas.
Birthmarker
i enjoyed this, speaking for myself.
c u n d gulag
I’m interested, because my Niece lives in Rochester. She’s at Eastman Conservatory of Music, getting her Doctorate.
I live near Poughkeepsie, and I’ll be working on getting our hideous Teabagging nitwit, Congresswoman Nan Hayworth(less), out of DC, and back into private practice, where the only thing she can f*ck-up are other people’s eyeballs.
JoyfulA
Very interesting. I feel like a real insider now.
JimF
How many of us are in Rochester?
MazeDancer
The combination of local insider and how the results could have implications for us all was quite interesting. Looking at contests in the ways that a Democratic strategist might be viewing the overall balance of power map adds something.
So getting unique takes on unusual races is a plus. Just MHO, but reports of local races without the twists and implications of this one, are covered in a dry, kind of watching the stats way, elsewhere, that does not need to be replicated here on Balloon Juice.
But certainly now want to know any key developments with Ms Slaughter.
Sly
Anything that prevents Peter King from continuing to represent me has my endorsement. It has my full and unequivocal endorsement if it prevents Peter King from continuing to represent anyone else as well.
ant
i find this kinda stuff interesting.
alsotoo, id like to thank you for how prolific you are in finding morning stories to blog about here on balloon juice.
cole is lucky to have your contributions to his blog.
Commenting at Ballon Juice since 1937
Maggie Brooks is the epitome of incompetent corruption and party cronyism.
gelfling545
I don’t live in Rochester or even very near but Louise is my rep & I will be out there supporting her. She has been a really superior rep of a practical persuasion & to think of a Republican taking her place is sick-making.
Scott
keep these coming. After redistricting this will now be my district. Nice to have a democrat to be proud of (remembering massa…..)
Linda Featheringill
Good post. Enjoyed it.
Picking up some local bloggers might be a good idea.
arguingwithsignposts
@Linda Featheringill: while i like the idea of more local politics posts, until there’s some kind of front-pager coordination, or a more magazine-style layout, it’s going to be more clutter than it’s worth.
JGabriel
mistermix:
Yep, this was perfect. Short, to the point, summary of what’s going on in a district House race.
mistermix
Thanks, I’ll keep it up, and look for other sites to contribute guest posts.
@arguingwithsignposts: I would be very surprised if John changed from the traditional blog format. I thought about burying most of the post after a “more”, maybe I’ll do that.
Walker
Nice to see this map. Looks like the city of Ithaca will no longer be gerrymandered out of the rest of Tompkins county
drst
Maggie Brooks is pretty popular in the county, despite her record. It helps that she used to be a local tv news anchor, so people recognize her. I doubt a lot of Rochesterians (and yes, that’s what we’re called) would recognize Slaughter’s face if they saw it. However, my experience of upstate is incumbency is a big factor. Slaughter has been the Congresscritter for a long while, and that may have an impact.
Someguy
A Liberal Republican – she says “please flog the servants, Jeeves” rather than “flog the damn servants, Jeeves.”
New Yorker
Oh wow, it looks like my Brooklyn neighborhood will no longer be represented by Nydia Velazquez. It looks like Carolyn Maloney might be my new member of Congress. I’m pretty sure this is not a good thing, since to people from the Upper East Side, Greenpoint might as well be Tanzania.
Also, I should mention that 4 years ago, Maggie Brooks was the name I pretty much pulled out of a hat for my wingnut uncle as an example of someone more qualified for the Vice Presidency than Palin. After all, Brooks has held an executive position far longer than Palin did, and in a place (Monroe County, NY) with a larger population than Alaska.
Ken
No, no this is good stuff, mistermix, please keep it up. We live in NY-26 (Williamsville), so getting one more perspective on neighboring upstate Districts is good reading. Thanks.
HelpThe99ers
@c u n d gulag: I’m just south of the 19th CD – it’s been disheartening to see a Tea Partier in what was formerly a blue Congressional district.
President Obama won there by 51-48 in 2008, and the Democratic primary is in late June. With a strong effort, we can win that seat back and help put Speaker Pelosi back in charge.
Butch
If this column might become a regular can I put in a plug for Michigan’s first congressional district? It’s difficult to impossible to get any information up here in the wilds of the Upper Peninsula. I had heard that Benishek’s fund raising numbers were bad, then heard that they weren’t; hardly have any information on his two Democratic opponents.
mdblanche
Question: why did the districts wind up getting drawn by a judge? Last I heard the legislature was going to do one of its traditional bipartisan gerrymanders.
c u n d gulag
@HelpThe99ers:
Oh, you can bet I’ll be volunteering for whoever the Democrat is.
Btw – John Hall (D) was the exception, not the rule.
The 19th was mostly Republican in the 20th Century – we had Hamilton Fish Jr, after Hamilton Fish – and it seemed like they were in the House from the time of Roosevelt – Teddy, I mean! :-)
MikeJ
@Butch:
Last year (01/01/2011 To 12/31/2011) he did:
Ending Cash On Hand $277,055
Net Contributions $593,892
Net Operating Expenditures $312,522
Debts Owed By $93,000
Debts Owed To $0
The take was split about 50/50 between individual donors and PACs.
Bailey had receipts of 92k, disbursed 19k, and cash on hand of 137k.
Mcdowell took 347k, spent 44k, 303k on hand.
artem1s
slightly off topic…
some more buzz on the Koch Bros suit against Cato.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/74040.html
amcoco
Yes – keep up the local coverage. Hoping to be making a move to Roch this summer (s/o is waiting on an adcom decision from UR SOMD [x-fingers crossed-x]) and happy to learn that the area is relatively blue. I was always under the impression western NY was pretty red. This kind of coverage is also helpful, tho, for non-locals who, like me, try to keep up on local contested races around the country.
HelpThe99ers
@c u n d gulag: Interesting Wikipedia article on the youngest Hamilton Fish – past President of The Nation Institute, political advisor to George Soros… guess he rebelled against the family business.
Origuy
@HelpThe99ers: Weren’t the elder Fishes liberal Republicans? A species as extinct as titaalik.
Butch
@MikeJ: Mike, can I ask where you found the information? We’re in an area that the FCC decided a while back will be served by Wisconsin television and most of the local media don’t provide a whole lot o’ information. Thanks for the numbers!
MikeJ
@Butch: fec.gov
arguingwithsignpost
@mistermix: maybe you or one of the other FPs could put up a recurring “local races” thread that commenters could use to include info about their specific local races.
PurpleGirl
@New Yorker: Carolyn Maloney is pretty good. She’s had parts of Queens for some years now. She was my representative for a few years when I lived in Astoria. It looks like the judge has changed that snakey district that flowed from lower eastside Manhattan through Brooklyn and into Queens (bordering Brooklyn). It looks like Joe Crowley’s district (#7, my current district) has been consolidated a bit and made more contiguous also. I appear to be firmly in the “new” 6th district. This would be nice because the Congressional Clerk’s office was insisting that I belonged to Nydia Velazquez instead of being a blip out into Crowley’s district (which the Big Six Towers development is).
mistermix — thanks for this map. I’ve been wondering what was being done to the NY congressional districts.
woodyNYC
@New Yorker: My district ( the former 10, now 8) is pretty much unchanged, but we annexed Coney Island. I did have a brief moment of thinking we had joined the Slopers, but no. And I will be able to see three districts from my corner!
The New #10 is a wacky one though. From Morningside heights to Bensonhurst?
Jesus H. Tapdancing Christ
The really good news from the New York redistricting is that Congressman Bob Turner (Likud – Borough Park) is being gerrymandered into oblivion. His re-election prospects are so awful (he has been cut off from his base of support in Brooklyn and is now in a mostly African-American district) that he has decided that he might as well run for the U.S. Senate. Not that his chances of winning a statewide election are much better, but the Repukes have no one else to nominate.
feebog
Even though I am on the left coast, I enjoy these kind of “local insight” stories. Several a week would be welcome.
sharl
@Butch:
I am no expert on politics, nor on your MI-1 Congressional District (CD) – my Dad grew up there (below the Mackinac Bridge), and I love it as a vacation spot – but one of the most fascinating layperson’s analysis I’ve ever read was by diarist Rayne over at the dreaded FDL. Her analysis came before Bart Stupak announced his retirement, otherwise that blue dog dem would still be in office.
Departure of Stupak notwithstanding, her analysis of the district itself was the kind of thing I’d love to see more of for other CDs. She really went into the interplay between geography, weather, and culture.
Unless the GOP really screws the pooch badly, it would be quite difficult for Dems to get that district back, and even if they beat those long, long odds, they would not be able to do it with the kind of dem that would be appreciated by die-hard liberals. (I think of it, politically, as Nebraska with more trees and water, and the occasional Yooper accent.)
mistermix
@arguingwithsignpost: I think that’s a good idea.
SG
@Sly: I’m with you on getting rid of Pete King as my rep. This redistricting was news to me, since I thought I’d be stuck with King forever and paid little attention. The Democrats have been singularly uninterested in running competitive candidates against King and he routinely gets 70+% of the vote. A glance at the current convoluted outline of CD3 shows why: Poorer towns are systematically excluded in favor of the richer towns of Nassau and the Suffolk south shore.
The downside, for me, is that I’ll now be stuck in CD 2 with Steve Israel and I doubt we’ll ever see a progressive challenger in a primary.
Nancy
Yes, please.
OzoneR
@New Yorker:
Maloney represented Greenpoint and Williamsburg in the 90s, the neighborhoods provided her margin of victory in 1992 against an incumbent Republican. She lost Manhattan than year.
OzoneR
@Jesus H. Tapdancing Christ:
Its funny cause Borough Park isn’t even in the district, but it might as well be.
How about that open seat in Queens, nominating the Chinese lady.
OzoneR
@OzoneR: @PurpleGirl:
Grace Meng, Rory Lancman or Liz Crowley?
OzoneR
@mdblanche:
They couldn’t agree on a congressional map, they didn’t even try.
I suspect the idea was to have a court draw House lines so they can criticize them and say “this will happen to state legislative lines if you don’t accept our gerrymander”
PurpleGirl
@OzoneR: Nothing on Joe Crowley’s web site to imply he won’t stay with the new district. It is mostly his old one.
OzoneR
@PurpleGirl:
He’s running in the 14th district which is a lot like his current one- Northern Queens and East Bronx
Someguy
Bob Turner is gone and two upstate Republicans look fatally weakened, Buerkle or Hanna will have to go, and Reed is just eliminated. This is good stuff – look for at least a +3 pickup out of New York no matter what happens in the general. Bummer that changing demographics eliminated two House seats for NY but there’s not a lot you can do about that.
Jesus H. Tapdancing Christ
Alright. How about Congressman Bob Turner (Likud — Midwood)?