Well, if Tom Jensen’s poll numbers are to be believed (and PPP has been pretty much spot on in the past with a good track record) then Stupor Tuesday it could be a long, long day for the forces of Romnevibility(tm).
The news is good for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and bad for Rick Santorum in PPP’s final polls of the three biggest Super Tuesday states.
In Ohio Romney leads with 37% to 36% for Santorum, 15% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.
In Tennessee Santorum leads with 34% to 29% for Romney, 27% for Gingrich, and 8% for Paul.
In Georgia Gingrich leads with 47% to 24% for Romney, 19% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
A week ago Santorum had a huge lead in Tennessee, a decent sized one in Ohio, and seemed like he had a good chance for second in Georgia. Now he’s barely holding on in Tennessee, ever so slightly behind in Ohio, and seems doomed for third in Georgia.
Romney’s fortunes have swung the other direction. What was looking like a runner up finish in Ohio is looking more like a win with each passing day. He has an outside chance at pulling off an upset win in Tennessee. And it looks like he’ll finish a solid second in Georgia.
The news for Gingrich is good too. It’s been expected he would win Georgia, but it looks now like he could even hit the 50% mark. And he’s pulled within striking distance of Santorum and Romney in Tennessee.
We’re at a tipping point. A Gingrich win in Georgia with him getting over 50% keeps him in the game, as does a Santorum win in Tennessee (especially if Romney slips into 3rd there.) Should Slick Rick pull off a win in Ohio to boot, all balls will be locked for multiball and the chaos will truly begin, as Tuesday will only make the national GOP picture even more messy.
If on the other hand Romney can win Ohio and surprise in the Volunteer State, Romnevitability(tm) will rise. It could go either way at this point. Me, I’m rooting for multiball, then for the table to break and the balls to go flying everywhere. Maybe knock over a few bystanders, roll out into the street, cause hipsters to ironically fall. Yeah, the kind of multiball that makes the local news and forces some local reporter to schlep out to where they still have pinball machines and pizza by the slice with “cheese” and do a report with a straight face with the chyron underneath reading “BIZARRE PINBALL ACCIDENT DOWNTOWN INJURES FOUR.”. I’m all for that. Let’s go with that. Yeah.
Also, what Doug said.