Sully lays out his thoughts on the one guy who could really sink the President’s re-election chances: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
I don’t think you can understand the Republican strategy for this election without factoring in a key GOP player, Benjamin Netanyahu. He already has core members of the US Congress siding openly with him against the US president and the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman – like McCain, Lieberman and Butters. Netanyahu’s war would be designed to rile up not only his own neo-fascist base, but also encourage American evangelical voters to turn out against Obama, the “anti-Christ”, while other Greater Israel fanatics, like Sheldon Adelson, keep bankrolling as many Greater Israel GOP nominees as they can. A global war which polarizes America and the world is exactly what Netanyahu wants. And it is exactly what the GOP needs to cut through Obama’s foreign policy advantage in this election. Because it is only through war, crisis and polarization that extremists can mobilize the emotions that keep them in power. They need war to win.
Here’s a prediction. Netanyahu, in league and concert with Romney, Santorum and Gingrich, will make his move to get rid of Obama soon. And he will be more lethal to this president than any of his domestic foes.
I’m of the opinion that if it really was that simple, Netanyahu would have pulled the trigger on this already. On the other hand, maybe he’s just waiting for the GOP Hunger Games to produce a champion first. Netanyahu isn’t going to be able to do this without lining up support from inside Israel, either.
But Sully’s right that should Bibi move, he’s going to have the entire GOP (minus Ron and Rand Paul, I guess) and a healthy chunk of Dems behind him. I’m rather confident that the Obama administration is not only aware of this but well out in front of it. Unfortunately, there are a lot of ways we could end up in the septic tank here and in a really friggin’ scary situation, and not all of those ways are under our direct or even indirect control. I like the team we have at the White House and State getting us through this, however.
trollhattan
Right on cue, some of Cole’s Freedom Bombs are rarin’ to go.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/experts-irans-underground-nuclear-sites-not-immune-to-us-bunker-busters/2012/02/24/gIQAzWaghR_story.html?hpid=z1
Cargo
I really don’t think Israel is going to attack Iran, although it’s a scary proposition, other mideast countries have nukes and it’s just not worth possibly triggering WW3.
I have to believe that the israelis are realists, when the rubber hits the road, despite the rhetoric.
wvng
Perhaps Newt’s Citizen’s United billionaire will underwrite Bib’s war.
BGinCHI
When does Israel’s demographic change happen so that they’ll stop electing these fuckhead PMs?
Linda Featheringill
So Israel wants to get rid of Obama? How deep does it go?
Bibi? Maybe. A committee of Israelis that wants to rule the world? Perhaps. The entire Likud Party? Doubtful. The Israeli people? I don’t believe it.
Zandar
@Linda Featheringill:
Like I said, if it was that easy, Bibi would have jumped by now.
Napoleon
I am not sure I completely follow Sully. All Netanyahu needs to do to sink Obama is attack Iran. They are almost certainly going to counter attack and with soaring gas prices sending the economy back into a recession what more does he need to do?
trollhattan
Luckily, Israel doesn’t have these, or a way to carry them.
http://media.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_MOP_Mockup_in_B-2_WLT_lg.jpg
c u n d gulag
I didn’t know our 10 Amendment included our newest, and 51st state – Israel?
Well, all of the states did agree to defend one another – or so Sen. Lieberman reminded everyone, out of his Jerusalem office.
stickler
@Cargo: Cargo – the problem isn’t “Israelis,” the vast majority of whom are extremely realistic. The problem is Bibi, whose “realism” has often overlapped with, but not entirely conformed to, reality.
Crazy, stupid, or arrogant? Why choose only one?
Mark S.
I don’t think Bibi is crazy enough to start a war without American support. I also think the last thing he wants is a majority of Americans questioning America’s relationship with Israel.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Agreed. Baring something in internal Israeli politics to prevent this from happening, the October surprise in this year’s US election will be a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran. If it works, break out the Star of David Israel #1 Foam Fingers: We’re #1, We’re #1. If something goes wrong, blame Obama, with a huge assist from the Israel Firsters here in the US, and with luck a GOP occupied WH will pull their chestnuts out of the fire come January 2013.
What’s not to like from a Likudnik point of view? The trickiest part is getting the timing just right so as to maximize both their chances of success and the political damage done to the current administration.
Somebody remind me, when was the last time that Israel did anything to benefit US national interests? As far as I can tell this is the worst client-patron relationship since Tsarist Russia decided to go all in in support of Greater Serbia.
Omnes Omnibus
Maybe Bibi will team up with Olympia Snowe for a concern troll double feature.
Yevgraf
I keep having this fun dream of an Israeli strike being intercepted over Iraq by Navy pilots who shoot ’em down while saying “remember the Liberty, bitchez”.
The weeping and wailing in Tel Aviv, Haifi and J-lem among the Eastern European emigres would be a fun thing to watch.
Culture of Truth
Two problems as I see it.
One, the ‘rally round the flag’ psychology that could help the sitting President.
Two, look at your options, middle-America. A) Willard Mitt Romney B) Rick Santorum. You want either of these guys deciding whether you or your children get shot at?
Schlemizel
Do you think it would be a smart move to play the “MAD” card?
Simply announce that a nuclear attack on Israel would result in a nuclear response. Couch it however it sells; We don’t want Iran to have the bomb but if we can’t stop them. This worked for 40 years with the Soviet Union certainly it will work here. etc.
That makes an Israeli attack on Iran look like a dick move to American voters (forget the 27%). And it might even work, who knows?
Brachiator
Very astute. Israeli hardliners lean toward the GOP. And Sheldon Adelson, who has been bankrolling Newt, also gets warm and fuzzy for Romney.
However, Romney does not demonstrate a lot of foreign policy smarts, nor shows signs that he could assemble a steady, reliably bellicose Republican Administration. Nor is it a sure thing that he could rally the public, especially evangelicals, to back Israel’s play.
Santorum is another matter altogether. Israeli hardliners bluntly distrust Santorum because he is rabidly Catholic. The Church is not seen as clearly a friend to Israel. Santorum also shows every sign of being a moron with respect to military and foreign policy.
This puts Bibi in a box.
FlipYrWhig
This is why I support nukes for Iran. Let these two nincompoop governments rattle each other’s sabers and leave us the fuck out of it.
Ben Franklin
Two members of Hezbollah captured within striking distance of Ehud Barak, but Israel denies there is any connection to his visit to Singapore. Why? If a leak is jeopardizing Mossad’s continuing operation, how does the denial tamp down the connection?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/16/singapore-thwarts-plot-kill-ehud-barak
BGinCHI
@Omnes Omnibus: You beat me to it. Zandar needs a big hug today.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
Bibi’s tried scaring Obama before, and when that doesn’t work, he runs to members of Congress, who yell, and then Obama ignores Bibi. I just haven’t seen Netanyahu get Obama off of his game.
Xecky Gilchrist
I’m far from convinced that war with Iran means the Redoublechins win. The public isn’t behind stupid war lately, and it’ll be very clear who started this one, just like it was who started the last one: Not Obama.
cmorenc
The thing that’s really inhibiting Netanyahu is ironically, his own survival instincts for himself and Israel. Even for an aggressively arrogant asshole like Netanyahu, the risks of miscalculating and making a wrong move include sparking a conflict that could quickly spin out of not just control, but the ability of Israel to survive or the ability of the United States to effectively intervene on Israel’s behalf in time to save it. He’s not a complete fool; he’s more likely content to use the pressure on the Obama administration to stay friendly with Bibi’s concerns until the election.
Yes, the existential stakes are high if Iran’s true intent is to acquire nuclear weapons so that within the next decade, they can preemptively wipe Israel off the map. But they are even higher if Israel provokes a more immediate armed conflict that spins out of defensible control. Israel has to decisively win every military conflict in future history; its enemies need to win but once over a period of less than a week to destroy it.
Culture of Truth
In addition, if Israel did attack Iran, you can bet the GOP would scream, see “there goes Obama being timid while another country takes the lead, like when the French killed bin Laden at pearl harbor!”, but many Americans would say, “well good, that’s taken care of then.”
Marcellus Shale, Public Dick
it sounds too much like reagan’s secret deal with iran, and to close to rhyming with the black jimmy carter meme. i think it might be a possibility designed and floated to see if obama jumps at the bait, more than an accurate assessment of bibi’s desire for war in a time frame that coincides with an american election.
so we are to believe that netanyahu some how magically knows that a parlay bet on public sympathies in numerous nations will break the way he needs it to? dude must be from the future if he doesn’t see how this could spectacularly fail on him.
Brachiator
Also, too, love the thread title.
@Schlemizel:
Not sure that this would be wise. We are still trying to rebuild Iraq and to a lesser degree Libya, two oil producers. Behind all the saber rattling, saner minds realize that nuclear devastation of Iran might have a catastrophic effect on the oii market.
You can’t use radioactive oil, nor can you pump it out of radioactive wells.
Barry
After the run-up to the Iraq War, I insist on hard proof.
Napoleon
@Yevgraf:
I heard the other day with the expiration of the agreement with Iraq on positioning forces that the US no longer protects Iraq’s airspace.
Chris
I really wouldn’t put anything past Bibi, and Republicans hitting up their foreign buddies for electoral support is nothing new – Nixon deliberately sabotaged the 1968 peace talks in order to help deny the Democrats a victory, for example.
The only thing that might hold back Bibi is the rest of Israel, so if there are any Israelis who aren’t right wing psychos reading this… it’s all on you, guys. No pressure.
schrodinger's cat
I am tired of these concern-trolling/scare mongering posts. OMG oil prices, OMG Netanyahu, OMG Santorum, they is coming and going to steal my lunch money so I am going to hide under the bed. What exactly is the point of the chicken-little posts. What are they supposed to achieve?
ETA: I forgot to add, OMG Greece and OMG Europe. Is this the left’s version of apocalyptic prophesies?
Svensker
@cmorenc:
That is fucking propaganda. Iran has no intention of “wiping Israel off the map” and never said so. Ahmadin** basically said he’d like Israel not to exist because it would make life easier and more pleasant. Did not say he had any plans to help that. And if you think that’s inflammatory, look at what Israel and US hardliners have been saying about Iran for years.
PeakVT
I have no idea if Netanyahu will order an attack (or if he even can), but I agree it would significantly alter the dynamics of the elect.
I don’t agree that if Netanyahu was going to attack, he would have done so already. He knows as much as any successful politician that the public’s mood will change over time. If he does order a strike with the secondary (or primary) goal of affecting the US elections, he’d want maximum impact, which would be 1-3 months after a strike. Oil prices would spike overnight, but economic impact would take a little longer to hit voters. Bonus conspiracy-spinning: a false-flag event to give Israel an excuse to attack would need to take place 1-2 months before an Israeli counter-attack. So look for that 3-5 months before the election.
Yevgraf
@Linda Featheringill:
You’re talking about a group of people who have rendered millions of folks voteless for nearly half a century, all on the pretext of “security” from other states in the area – states which the occupied really don’t have any voice in. The Israeli apartheid has oppressed the occupied economically and politically, all while Israeli business concerns have shithammered the ecology and natural resources of a densely packed area. Not only that, the Israeli regime has embargoed food and medicine.
Why does the PA resort to terror bombings? Why wouldn’t they have resorted to terror bombings? Frankly, they’ve been restrained. That regime has done more to fuck things up than someone could do if they set out to do it intentionally. They’ve screwed up Lebanon and Syria beyond anybody’s ability to repair them (not, at least, while Tel Aviv and Haifa remain standing cities and not a couple of radioactive piles of rubble), and thanks to Israeli violence, Israeli genocide, Israeli greed/selfishness and Israeli intransigence and power mongery, they keep the oil markets roiled.
The place has been a nasty, aggressive shitstain on the map ever since the US religious right cozied up to the Likudniks in a burst of Cold War era stupid. Instead of becoming the model of intercultural cooperation and secular prosperity it could have attained, it took on the ugliest, worst aspects of the regime it claimed to have most despised.
Svensker
@schrodinger’s cat:
Do you not remember the runup to Iraq?
With your memory problems then you’re completely blase about this? The US Senate pledging to bomb Iran if it sneezes?
BGinCHI
Back to back headlines at TPM:
Joe Manchin To Vote For Blunt Contraception Bill
Limbaugh: Student Who Testified At Contraception Hearing A ‘Slut’
Chris
@Cargo:
That’s my hope. What I’m afraid of is that, especially in the last couple decades, they’ve gotten so used to getting away with everything because of America’s unconditional blessings. That kind of consequence-free power goes right to your head. Not that all or even most Israelis are like that, but Bibi and his posse, definitely.
PeakVT
@PeakVT: FYWP didn’t allow me to fix typos and add: I seriously doubt an attack will take place.
Linda Featheringill
@Xecky Gilchrist:
:-)
schrodinger's cat
@Svensker: I remember the run up to Iraq, and there are no problems with my memory. Thank you very much. But I am tired of reading post after post how any happening real or hypothetical is bad for Obama’s reelection chances.
JWL
The American people would never believe Natanyahu’s rationale for such an attack, nor would they ever forgive the Israeli people for launching it.
And if that’s what it takes to break the Israeli lobby’s control of congress, I’m tempted to counsel them to go for it..
trollhattan
@Brachiator:
From what I’ve read, it’s operationally difficult for Israel to orchestrate a strike with no guarantee they’d be successful in crippling Iran’s program. They’d certainly strengthen Ahmadinejad, however.
This isn’t 1981 and there isn’t a single, easy-to-hit target.
4tehlulz
Is this the tenth or fifteenth year in a row that Israeli strikes on Iran have been imminent? I’ve lost track.
Yevgraf
@Chris:
Assuming facts not in evidence.
My take is that we take our dollars and go home, and let Bibi see how long he can keep his F-15s and F-16s in the air without US assistance, against wave assaults by combined Arab air forces.
Somehow, it gives me amusement to consider the modifications in Israeli civilian and POW conduct while under a unified occupation.
Cluttered Mind
@Yevgraf: I personally see the formation of the state of Israel as the final act of the Holocaust. After the Nazis did their best to exterminate the Jews from Europe, the Allied forces stepped in to finish the job by relocating all the survivors to the Middle East so they wouldn’t have to deal with the messy issue of anti-Semitism anymore. After all, no one can call you an anti-Semite if you vocally support Israel and give them tons of money and guns, regardless of whether doing so actually benefits the Jewish people in any way (hint: it does the opposite). Speaking as someone of Jewish descent, I think the world as a whole and the Jews in specific would be a lot better off had the modern state of Israel never come into being.
negative 1
I think that this cannon has already been fired. How many Dems would vote Republican just because Israel declared war? Aren’t the party lines already broken down between those who want to fight Iran and those who don’t? I suppose the $20 million question is how independents feel about attacking Iran, but I don’t get the sense that anyone is that crazy about yet another murky middle east conflict, Isreal or no.
Ben Franklin
@trollhattan:
Not even with one of these?
http://gizmodo.com/5285865/30000+pound-massive-ordnance-penetrator-is-not-what-you-think
jefft452
@Culture of Truth:
this
@Xecky Gilchrist:
and this
When events make the world a scary place, the last thing people want is a hot-head leader
“were all Georgians now” hurt McCain
Yevgraf
@Cluttered Mind:
For years, I’ve read the blathering about how much of a “friend” the Religious Right is to Jews because they “unconditionally support Israel”, and wondering why American Jews don’t really seem to want to get with the program.
Any time you point out that American Jews are happy to be American, and want America to remain safe for Jews, you might as well be talking to a wall.
beergoggles
If he does pull something like this it will be because this president has been too nice and hasn’t publicly retaliated and taken things personally. Like all neocons and conservatives, they mistake diplomacy as weakness.
Mino
Uh, Bibi wants the same brand of idiots that produced the Iraq fiasco as his co-conspirators? That convinces me he is dumb as a rock.
The last Lebanon War soured a lot of the American public on Israel. Bibi might get a nasty surprise.
Amir Khalid
@Cluttered Mind:
This is exactly what I mean when I say that Israel’s formation was a mistake.
rlrr
@trollhattan:
A strike is exactly what the hardliners in Iran want. It would solidify their support in a big way…
schrodinger's cat
I don’t think selling a war on Iran, is going to be an easy matter, no matter how much Bibi and his friends in the Senate want to.
1. The populace is much more war weary than during the run up to Iraq.
2. Iran is much bigger than (three times the size, I think) Iraq.
But hey lets not let reality intrude on our feverish nightmare scenarios.
Chris
@Yevgraf:
This topic comes up every time there’s an Israel discussion: it ain’t as simple as a “Likudnik/religious right” thing. Sure, these guys made things worse. Sure, they’re more irrational than their predecessors.
But the plain fact is that Israel was founded on blood and theft right from the outset. “Secular prosperity,” maybe, but “intercultural cooperation,” not buying it. The very nature of the State of Israel and the way it was founded militates against that. Of course people can change, but I see little evidence that they were about to.
Cluttered Mind
@Yevgraf: It’s easy to be a “friend” to the Jews if all you have to do is make belligerent speeches and support actions half a world away. If our policy makers actually cared at all about the wellbeing of the Jewish people themselves, they wouldn’t be enabling the behavior of the Israeli right as they work to make sure that no peace in the region will ever be possible. As long as Bibi knows that his every move will be backed by the U.S., he’s under no pressure at all to change his behavior, and the Palestinians will continue to suffer.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@negative 1:
The open question is how indy and squishy Dem voters are going to react to $10/gal gasoline. Will they connect the dots between warmongering both here and in the Middle East and the fact that they have to hitch-hike to get to work, assuming they haven’t been laid off already because the economy just took a nosedive, or will it be all Obama’s fault(R) because (A) he didn’t do anything to stop the Israelis from starting the war, or (B) he didn’t help them to finish the Iranians off quickly, or (C ) because shut up that’s why.
Next, factor in the US mainstream news media which has a serious boner for both Israel and war pr0n. And then factor in LeftProgistan crucifying Obama for whatever tepid and minimal support we do end up giving the Israelis.
Chris
@Cluttered Mind:
I agree completely. With all of this.
Steve
Netanyahu might do a lot of things. But the idea that he would do this “in concert with” Romney, Santorum and Gingrich is barking mad. It’s pure conspiracy mongering, except that unlike most invented conspiracies it has only one Jew.
Honestly, while I personally am more “pro-Israel” than the average liberal, I think Sully vastly underestimates the massive amount of Middle East Fatigue, maybe even Israel Fatigue, that is out there. Sure, most Americans share a vague sense that the Israelis are the good guys, and almost nobody likes Iran. But that doesn’t mean the average American is a Sarah Palin-style whackjob on the issue.
We had a pretty serious intervention in Libya under this President. In terms of public opinion, it didn’t really move the dial. We have a current situation in Syria where some people think we ought to be playing a larger role. Not really moving the dial either. Israel dropping a few bombs on Iran, if it happens, is not a game-changer in this country.
jl
History indicates, to this amateur observer of political sleaze, that good old fashioned hypothetical scenario campaign scare mongering and accusations that Democrats are weak fifth columnist would have a more predictable effect on getting rid of Obama than starting an effing fricking war.
I think Netanyahu would try that first. He and his many friends have more control over US politics and the idiot and suborned US press than the course of a war.
A series of loaded dingbat questions in the presidential debates could be a political nuclear bomb right before a close election.
Why wouldn’t the neocons try that first?
Cluttered Mind
@Amir Khalid: Forming Israel was the Allies’ way of “looking forward, not backward” when it came to the Jews. None of the underlying issues that led to the Holocaust were addressed, at all. The centuries of hate and bigotry towards Jews were just swept under the rug and ignored. Europe never had to face up to what happened and maybe admit to themselves that their centuries of anti-semitism contributed to the environment that let Hitler do what he did. And then they took a battered and traumatized people and dropped them in a country that was not theirs, armed them to the teeth, and said they could do whatever they wanted. I’m not all that surprised at the outcome.
Roger Moore
@Napoleon:
The big question is how. Israel’s planes don’t have the range to hit Iranian targets without massive refueling support. Where do you think they’re going to get the tanker support other than the USA? If Obama says no, Israel is going to be very short on options.
Then there’s the question of their route to the target. Every plausible route involves them flying over at least one of Turkey, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia. Which one of those countries is going to give even tacit support to Israel in attacking Iran when it risks entangling them in a war with Iran? Again, if Obama asks any of those countries to say no to Israel when they ask for free passage, they’re very likely to go with us rather than Israel.
The massive press campaign isn’t about preparing us for Israel launching an attack on its own hook. It’s an attempt to pressure Obama into giving Israel a green light to attack. If he stands firm, and if he and Hillary do a good job of talking to Israel’s neighbors, the attacks just aren’t going to happen.
chopper
i gotta say, if bibi really tries to sink obama’s chances at reelection (and any attack on iran this year will be seen as that by obama’s team) i think bibi’s going to see a side of obama he’ll wish he’d never, ever had to deal with.
for all the talk out of american leftists over how israel has perpetually ‘owned’ the executive branch, hell hath no fury like a US president forced into becoming a one-termer by some reactionary shmuck. especially because you just know that obama is not a huge fan of netanyahu.
Davis X. Machina
@Steve:
Closure of the Straits of Hormuz, and $6.50 a gallon gas in the run-up to the elections isn’t a game changer, either.
The median voter’s going to laugh that right off.
Chris
@Yevgraf:
You wish. (And me too).
Honestly, the stupidity of their government staggers me. They’ve essentially decided to alienate each and every single last country on Earth, except America, with the rationale that hey, as long as America’s in our pocket, the rest don’t matter.
Do they think American dominance is going to last forever? What the hell are they planning to do when America loses its superpowers status (whether that’s in ten years, a hundred, or two hundred) and no longer has the ability to protect them?
cat48
The Iran Sanctions that passed the Senate 99-0 were so severe that Iran cannot pay for ordered grain that is sitting in the Harbor waiting for payment when they make oil sales. They’ve crippled the entire country & all Bibi can talk about is how they’re not working.
Sully is realistic b/c the highest ranking officials in the Admin. have been sent to ‘talk’ to Israel & try to dissuade them from bombing Iran. He won’t take no for an answer so Dempsey, Joint Chief of Staff, has made 2 tv appearances here strongly warning Israel NOT to bomb Iran. He uses Diplomatic speak so it doesn’t sound that harsh, but FP writers say he’s telling them NO in no uncertain terms. Bibi is furious b/c the Kenyan won’t do it for him.
Bibi is coming March 5 for aipac convention & to meet w/the prez on that date. I don’t see how the economy or Obama survives this. I’m watching in horror. No one else reads the Israeli papers or Foreign Affairs, I see. I wish I could stop.
eemom
@schrodinger’s cat:
Bless your heart. That times a zillion.
I don’t know who the fuck died and put Chicken Little in charge of this blog, but I’m ready for a nice hungry Foxy Loxy to come along and put him out of our collective misery.
Steve
@Davis X. Machina: That’s correct. There is no evidence that gas prices determine election results, and it’s fairly silly to think an Israeli attack that leads to higher gas prices would cause people to blame Obama.
Brachiator
@trollhattan:
The Israeli military option is non nuclear. I was referring to a nightmare scenario in which either side, or the US, unleashed nukes. You could not even have the fantasy of a US occupation (an Israel occupation would be impossible). Anything that results in widespread devastation of Iran’s infrastructure would send oil prices skyrocketing. No one, and particularly the financial markets, wants that to happen.
@jl:
Let’s see. Troops out of Iraq, the begining of a draw down in Afghanistan. I don’t think there is any way that the Republicans can sell another Middle East adventure. And there would be no coalition of partners, esepecially with potential allies dealing with their own economic problems.
Of course, Newt once promised quick and painless regime change. I just can’t see the GOP selling this to more than half of their core 27 percenters.
kindness
I know I’m in the minority but in MHO when the Israeli jets come across the border over Iraq or Saudi Arabia, the US should shoot them down.
Remember the USS Liberty.
Chris
@Roger Moore:
This.
I stand corrected and amend what I previous said: Bibi is restrained by conditions in Israel, and objective reality, the latter not to be dismissed. Good point too that it gives Obama a trump card, I didn’t even think of that.
trollhattan
@Ben Franklin:
We could, but unless we’re loanin’ Israel the keys to the B-2 they’re stuck on the ground.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Cluttered Mind:
To that context you also have to add the legacy of British imperial rule and their nasty habit of formenting and encouraging sectarian divisions in their empire, especially in thinly held territories with few colonists of European descent to divide et impera over the locals, and the chaotic way they abandoned sections of their empire after WW2 when it no longer suited them. Too bad for us that the temptation to effectively take title to the remains of the British Empire at firesale prices was too good of a bargain for the US to pass up, back in the 1940s and early 50s. In doing so we purchased a tranche of toxic mortgages, long before it became the fashionable thing to do.
Keith G
@Mark S.:
.
You are right. Add to that, whatever minuscule support Israel has in Europe will turn to outright hostility. The political fallout would not be localized.
Any American politicians seen as pushing this fuck up will be pilloried and cast out.
samara morgan
Bibi doesnt have enough popular internal support to do it……..yet.
membah what happened to the idiot that started the Summer War?
out on his ass.
Svensker
@Steve:
But $15/gallon gas is.
schrodinger's cat
@eemom: Did you read the one about Snowe? I was not sure if it was a parody or for real.
eemom
@Steve:
Teh internetz — u winz em.
trollhattan
@rlrr:
Yup. Sully could put away the green crayons for good.
Keith G
@eemom:
Welcome to the new BJ.
Heliopause
Sullivan is full of shit if he thinks that Netanyahu’s actions are all about getting rid of Obama. Netanyahu doesn’t care who is President so long as he effectively continues the decades long bipartisan Washington consensus on Israel. That is, keep on running unlimited interference for Israel in public. Netanyahu is probably fairly confident that he can outflank Obama on the Iran issue because,
substituting “nearly 100% of congressional Dems” for “healthy chunk”, he’s betting that Obama will be unable to stand up to a 98% Washington consensus on Israeli aggression. That is, I’d be surprised if Netanyahu is much concerned about the microscopic, marginal difference in U.S. policy toward Israel that a Republican President would bring. But Sullivan thinks it’s all about Obama, gee, I wonder why.
eemom
@schrodinger’s cat:
Same here. I just kind of sat there in wonder, transfixed by the stupidity of it.
daveNYC
@Yevgraf:
Um, yeah, the combined might of all the Arab countries’ Air Forces wouldn’t exactly keep me up at night. It’s like worrying about Bolivian naval superiority.
samara morgan
@Chris: sides, the Generals are not gunna do it.
samara morgan
@daveNYC: Iraq? Pakistan?
both have modern airforces.
we built 3 big beautiful EXPENSIVE airfields in Iraq that Iran can fly out of now.
;)
cmorenc
@Roger Moore:
If Israel really does go ahead with a scheme to preemptively attack Iran, it’s questionable that they’d ask permission from Saudi Arabia to overfly the vast empty desert portion thereof. The more formidable problem is whether their attack could successfully reach far enough toward Iran and quickly enough to prevent Iran from taking countermeasures that could significantly blunt the attack. The only way I see Israel pulling off a unilateral attack on Iran is if they have missiles capable of reaching Tehran from Israeli soil in less than 20 minutes.
Steve
@Svensker: So now we’re up to $15. Does anyone want to go for $30?
samara morgan
@cmorenc: given that Iraq and Iran are shortly to be flying joint air defense exercises out the gorgeous airbases the US built in the Grand Misadventure of the Manifest Destiny of Judeo-xian Democracy in MENA (Iraq), i dont think the Israelis can overfly Iraq.
And given Turkey wouldnt even let AmerIsraels ground forces into their country for OIF i think Turkey is a no go.
That leaves KSA.
Allowing that would get them their very own Arab Spring uprising.
The Dangerman
@Steve:
Apparently, some have forgotten the strategic petroleum reserve.
timb
I think the $6 a gallon for gas will hurt Obama too. The day thie first bomb drops, gas prices will spike. Strait of Hormuz comes under attack? 6 dollars, plummeting poll numbers, and President Romney
In other words, what Davis X. Machina said. A big +1 to him
Cluttered Mind
@samara morgan: Not to mention that Turkey is still rather (justifiably) pissed about that whole flotilla incident a while back. They certainly aren’t about to help Israel in any way.
Michael
Don’t know if anyone else has mentioned it, but I’m pretty sure Israel can’t strike Iran without flying through US controlled airspace, so, this doesn’t really strike me as plausible.
edit: so I see many have mentioned this already. Heh. Okay then.
jl
@Brachiator:
” I don’t think there is any way that the Republicans can sell another Middle East adventure. ”
That does not stop them from trying, does it? What else do they have? Massively unpopular proposals to make contraceptives harder to get? Shut down volcano monitoring?
AxelFoley
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Thank you.
And who really believes that if Israel attacks Iran, the American people are gonna blame Obama? If gas prices go up as a result, Americans will blame Israel for that shit. And then we’ll get calls from Americans to stop aid to Israel. Does Bibby want that shit?
That’s some grade A concern trolling by Sully right there.
samara morgan
@cmorenc:
oh, they dont want to hit Tehran. they want to hit the Fordo nuke enrichment site at Qom.
well….not only is Qom built on a mountain top, it is the second holiest city of Shi’ia Islam after Karbala..
Bombing Qom with bunker busters would be analogous to bombing Medina (for Sunnis) or Jerusalem (for jews).
can you say………WWIII, boys and girls?
Of course, WWIII is just what Our Crazy Ex-girlfriend Israel probably wants, because America is just not that into her anymore.
Nah, its just kabuki to try to influence the election.
Bibi wants Obama to be a one-term president even worse than the teabaggers do.
eemom
@Keith G:
It’s like a virtual horror movie: Night, Dawn and Day of the Living Concern Trolls.
salacious crumb
Netanyahu knows one thing..there is no way, short of an economic catastrophe, that Obama is gonna lose the presidential election. And he knows that if he fucks with Obama’s reelection chances by goading the pro-Israel vote into defeating Obama, should Obama win, he will bitchslap Netanyahu to kingdom come by making sure Israel pays heavy concessions and force Israel to make peace with the Palestinians.
So Netanyahu’s best hope is to try to goad Obama into going to war with Iran now otherwise there is no way Israel can go to war with Iran once Obama wins (this is assuming Iran doesnt do anything stupid). And if anyone thinks Obama gives a shit about Democrats winning Congress think again…Obama is not gonna let some two bit politician in Israel dictate how America runs its foreign affairs and I suspect he will be willing to risk Congressional elections in order to teach Netanyahu a lesson.
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
There have been a number of discussions on the Intertubes about how Israel might strike Iran. One can be found here, How Israel might strike at Iran.
However, the Times of Israel also notes this:
The GOP and neocon nutcases see some easy strike. More sober minds realize that this kind of thing is not some bloodless video game.
Ben Franklin
@samara morgan:
I sense the Aspergers flaring into a CME. I bow to your passion.
salacious crumb
may I also add that as much as American Jews care about Israel, they detest the social policies especially on issues of abortion ..and there is no way they will let the GOP get control and dictate the rules on social issues such as this.
samara morgan
aint gunna happen n/e ways.
Air Force Chief: What Would Bombing Iran Do, Exactly?
Patricia Kayden
If Israel attacks Iran, why would that automatically result in a steep spike in oil prices? What percentage of US oil comes from Iran?
I would welcome an Israeli attack on Iran if it stops Iran from developing nuclear weapons. That would take the pressure of President Obama to do so.
cat48
jl
@eemom: I
heard a rumorhad a bright idea in the showerhave inside information about reanimating the newly discovered giant prehistoric penguins, putting them in specially designed armored air conditioned hazmat suits and training them to peck their way into the Iranian bunkers.As soon as they break into the production facilities, armored space zeppelins will rain down bunker busters.
People will hold Obama responsible, and he will lose the PETA vote. Curtains for Obama in the general.
Edit: last I read, Israeli military leaders also against an attack by Israel alone. Since, like US military, they wonder exactly what the long term outcome will be and how the tactic of an attack, or series of attacks serves the long run strategic objective. Would they be persuaded by some scheme where the US is forced to jump in due to speculative ideas about who the US voters will blame for the mess?
Monkey Business
Here’s how the President puts the pin back in this particular grenade.
He says, in no uncertain terms, the US will not participate in an armed conflict with a sovereign nation without the support of the surrounding regional powers.
He then says that a nuclear strike against a US ally will result in nuclear retaliation.
Consequently, the only way the US goes to war with Iran is if Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab League sign off on it because they recognize that Ahmadinejad has got to go, or if Iran lobs a nuke a Tel Aviv.
If Israel preemptively attacks Iran, the President (who, incidentally, is also the Commander in Chief) simply tells the US Navy, Air Force, Army, and Marines to protect US interests. Congress can yell and scream all they want, but this is one area in which they do not have the power to act, short of overriding a Presidential veto and declaring war.
Let me put it this way: if Ahmadinejad were saying the same things about Israel that Bibi is saying about Iran, we’d be sizing Iran up for “regime change”.
Steve
@cat48: Cousin Avi? Does he say “Don’t go to England”?
Culture of Truth
good point
Roger Moore
@cmorenc:
Sure, but what would Saudi Arabia do when Israeli planes obviously intent on attacking Iran flew over their territory? Maybe they could claim that a single incursion was a surprise and they weren’t able to scramble their planes in time to do anything about it, but every indication I’ve seen suggests that Israel would take a few days worth of attacks to deal the Iranian nuclear industry a serious enough blow to make an attack worthwhile. If Saudi Arabia doesn’t do something to stop subsequent Israeli incursions, Iran will see them as cooperating in the attack and treat them as hostile. And I don’t know if Iran can do a lot to Saudi Arabia militarily, but I bet they have contingency plans to do some very nasty things to their oil ports in the Persian Gulf, which would hurt Saudi Arabia badly.
Also, too, any Israeli flight path that took them over Saudi Arabia would also wind up taking them over the Persian Gulf. Guess who has aircraft carriers and anti-aircraft cruisers in the Persian Gulf? If we really want to stop Israel from attacking Iran via Saudi Arabia, we can do something about it. It would take a hell of a lot of balls to provoke an incident with Israel to prevent them from attacking Iran, but I wouldn’t put it past Obama if he thought an attack on Iran wasn’t in our best interest. I would certainly expect him to threaten to do so in an attempt to dissuade Israel from trying anything.
David Koch
Netroots icon/hero Alan Grayson is Netanyahu’s biggest ass kisser.
samara morgan
@Brachiator:
no, no, and no.
that is why i think its just kabuki, to fuck with Obama’s re-election chances.
Bill Arnold
@chopper:
I have been assuming that there is an side-channel informal agreement to limit meddling in each other’s politics. The BObama administration/state department would surely have communicated this pretty early, after the first few disses of the BObama administration. Also, (again hypothetically) since the Netanyahu admin would not be confident that they could force a Republican win, they would have to factor in the strong possibility of 4 more years of BObama. (and … people who talk about other means of removing BObama are quite simply lunatics.)
The Chicken Littles here are lightweights. The big fear is that little bunker busters deliverable by Israel will obviously not be able to do the job, and, well, “ALL options are on the table”. This too has been discussed, at least in the foreign press. I have no clue how realistic a threat it is, since the threat is (surely) a factor in the negotiations with Iran.
samara morgan
@Patricia Kayden: just talking about attacking Iran has resulted in a steep rise in oil prices.
KXB
@AxelFoley:
The opinion of the American people is a secondary concern. What matters is how effective interest groups in DC can mobilize votes, donations, and pressure to get what they want. Remember, Americans wanted out of Iraq back in 2006, but we did not leave until 2011. Americans wanted out of Afghanistan back in 2009, but we are still there.
Ben Franklin
@Monkey Business:
Is AIPAC a 501(c)(3) with non-profit, religious status?
i see a way…..
gaz
fuck the douchebag zionist assholes.
My friend’s little girl just drew a “You are not alone” mural in crayon (not really her fault, as she has immigrant parents who’ve never seen the inside of a school themselves) – ever since they took up christianity they’ve sort of had this weird “jews for jesus” thing going on even though they are self-identified christians… Yeah, I don’t understand it either.
Anyway, I wanted to ask D. (the little girl) what she thought about the Palestinians, but I decided I’d have to explain a little more horror to a 10 year old girl than was quite responsible. I figure that’s a discussion for another time. She’s 10, and knows not what she supports. I figure no harm no foul just yet. Still, meh. What a mess.
KXB
@Patricia Kayden:
It does not matter how much America imports from Iran (currently zero). Indeed, America imports less Middle East oil than 30 years ago. But oil is a global market. If the sources are disrupted by war, that will affect the price.
As for Israel’s military skill, they have a lousy track record since the Yom Kippur War. 1982 – let’s invade Lebanon and secured our northern border. 2006, let’s push Hezbollah back. 2008 – let’s eject Hamas from Gaza. One failure after the another.
Ben Franklin
@KXB:
Yup. It’s the same push/pull war we’re (US) having with the electorate.
War fatigue.. The Israelis have as much as Americans, if not more. They are
besieged on all sides, yet they are questioning the basic strategy of the Likud.
uptown
The Jewish population of Israel is about 6 million.
GlobalSecurity.org estimates Iran could mobilize “up to one million men” (already trained troops). Up to 11 million men and women are members of the Basij (a paramilitary, volunteer militia force within the IRGC) who could potentially be called up for service
-via Wiki
Omnes Omnibus
@uptown: And?
Roger Moore
@Ben Franklin:
I’m not sure if “yet” is the right word. The problem is that Likud’s belligerence has been pushing them further down the path of siege and isolation. If you’re surrounded by enemies, the best strategy is to convince some of them to stop hating you, not to piss them off further.
THE
@samara morgan:
More than just talk Samara. The US and EU imposed new sanctions on Iran.
The sanctions are disrupting trade with Iran and making it harder, and more expensive, to get Iranian oil to market.
uptown
@Omnes Omnibus:
Israel wouldn’t last long. Iran is too big for them to bomb completely and Iran has some very nice homemade weapons (see Wiki). All Iran has to do is borrow a few Nukes from their Pakistan neighbor.
Svensker
@Patricia Kayden:
Um, 0%. But it’s a world oil market. And every time Israel makes threatening noises, world oil prices go up a couple of bucks.
Egg Berry
Since when is Andy Sullivan an expert on ME affairs?
Ben Franklin
@Roger Moore:
The context is the military failures, which I believe to be caused by even polling within Israel. This is the same sort of indecisiveness we’ve (US) experienced within the electorate. Politics infests every facet of human behavior.
Soonergrunt
@wvng: Well, Sheldon is disappointed to have served in the US Army and not the Israeli army.
eemom
@Egg Berry:
humbly submitted as fixed.
THE
@samara morgan:
The Iraqi airforce is only just starting to be reconstituted. It had 35 men in 2004.
well fuck
I WANT Iran developing nuclear weapons if it’ll stop all this bullshit ballgrabbing to keep it from occurring. They deserve it no less than Israel and the US.
OzoneR
Never heard of an October surprise?
OzoneR
@cmorenc:
A five minute deep thought would tell you why there’s no logic to them “wiping Israel off the map”
For one thing, it isn’t a big country. They nuke Tel Aviv and Haifa and that radioactive shit is falling on the West Bank and Gaza. They won’t touch Jerusalem, its their holy city, and besides that, why would they nuke land they want someone else to live in?
Nevermind the fact that it would be the end of the Iranian government and would piss off every non-Muslim country in the world and probably even some more moderate Muslim countries like Egypt or Indonesia.
fasteddie9318
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
It’s neat how you assume that the US is the patron in that relationship.
Omnes Omnibus
@fasteddie9318: Well, how much support (patronage) is Israel providing to the US?
fasteddie9318
@Omnes Omnibus: I didn’t say Israel was the patron, did I? It’s not a client-patron relationship. Patrons are supposed to be buying something that accrues to their benefit when they patronize a client. We give Israel military support and diplomatic cover and get a never-ending stream of shit in return. We’re Israel’s co-dependent spouse, Tina to Bibi’s Ike.
Omnes Omnibus
@fasteddie9318: Are you at all familiar with the Russia-Serbia relationship pre-WWI? I don’t think the comparison was necessarily inapt. I also don’t think Israel is going risk provoking WWIII or the collapse of the world economy in order to try to affect the US election. The downside is too big.
Emma
@schrodinger’s cat: Thank you. That’s all.
AxelFoley
@OzoneR:
Don’t folks think that if we can think of potential “October surprises”, President Obama and his team haven’t already planned for them?
Mnemosyne
Okay, look:
The chances of Obama authorizing a US attack on Iran are about as close to zero as you can get (barring something super-drastic, like an attack inside the US on the scale of 9/11 that can be traced directly to Iran)
The chances of Congress getting up off their collective asses and forcing Obama’s hand by issuing their first declaration of war since Dec. 8, 1941, are also very close to zero. They don’t want this hung around their necks, but they love to rattle them some sabers.
If Bibi wants to go off adventuring in Iran, there’s a very good chance the US will let him hang out to dry, especially with the way he’s been treating Obama and Sec. Clinton.
Even if we get $30 gasoline, no one is going to vote for Romney or Santorum over it, because both of those guys clearly have no fucking idea what they’re doing in foreign affairs. Remember that what made Carter look so bad was that he tried to take action to rescue the hostages and failed miserably. This is not that kind of standoff (for one thing, by this point in 1980, the American hostages had already been in captivity for over three months).
I am not worried about war with Iran for as long as Obama is president. This is why we have to work our asses off for his re-election starting now.
Mnemosyne
@AxelFoley:
Not to mention that the whole point of the “October Surprise” theory is that it happened because Reagan had a secret agreement with the Iranians. Who is in an equivalent position here where they hold all of the cards and one simple action (aka releasing the hostages) will fix the crisis? Any action the Israelis take is pretty much guaranteed to spiral out of control, so it’s not analogous.
fasteddie9318
@Omnes Omnibus: Russia pushed pan-Slavism and backed those Balkan Slavic nations because they expanded the empire and allowed them to carve off pieces of the Ottoman Empire as well as to meddle in Austrian internal affairs. In other words, they got something out of the relationship, and even though from our perspective the relationship led them into WWI and literally the fall of the Romanovs, from the perspective of the 18th and 19th century tsars it made geopolitical sense to pursue those pan-Slavic policies.
You could maybe stretch the analogy to apply to the US-Israel relationship, say, 30 years ago. But today? We support Israel unquestioningly in exchange for…um…Florida’s electoral votes? The enmity of a few hundred million Arabs and Iranians? The chance to have Bibi fly in to DC during any Democratic administration to bitch to Congress about how the president isn’t treating him right? Seriously, what’s the benefit to this special relationship? I don’t even see one in the here and now, to say nothing of what people a century from now might see.
Joe Bohemouth
Fairly sure Bibi will do his utmost to ratfuck Obama, but doubt it will amount to much. And if he does by some miracle manage to pull it off, he’s just created the most credible and surely relentless BDS spokesman in history. If they think Carter is a headache now…
Emma
@AxelFoley: Another thank you. It’s amazing how even so-called liberals have accepted the Republicans’ “Obama is helpless” meme.
SoINeedAName48
Damn, that Sully is Spot-On right!
And Israel’s irresponsible Zealotry for war is going to get a LOT of innocent people killed!
OzoneR
@AxelFoley:
I’m sure they do, the problem is what if what they’re planned for isn’t going to help them politically.
Are liberals going to be ok if on October 20, Bibi bombs Iran and Obama supports him? Or will they stay home two weeks later? Or if he doesn’t support Bibi, do independents abandon him at the last minute?
eemom
@Mnemosyne:
oh but why do that, when you could be writing blog posts 24/7 about how a poorly timed fart at any moment between now and the closing of the polls on November 6 could cost Obama the election?
Mnemosyne
@OzoneR:
Again, though, you have to define your terms. What do you mean “Obama supports him” — air support? Verbal expressions of support? Other people have pointed out that the geography and the limits of Israel’s equipment are such that there’s really not much Bibi can do other than saber-rattle without direct US involvement, and I can’t see any circumstance other than a direct, Iran-linked attack on US soil where Obama would authorize such an attack.
I’m not saying that it’s not Bibi’s and the neocons’ fondest wish for the US to help Israel attack Iran, but I really can’t see any circumstances under which Obama would be stupid enough to go along. Serious head injury? Malia held hostage in an undisclosed location?
jonas
I don’t see how an Israeli-instigated war in the Middle East and even the skyrocketing oil prices that would come in its wake would necessarily doom Obama. Let’s say Israel unilaterally attacks Iran. Pandemonium ensues in the Middle East, oil hits $200 a barrel, gas is around $6-8/gal. People are going to be pissed of course, but what’s Romney’s (there, I said it, he’s going to be the nominee) response going to be? I’ll bring down gas prices by…encouraging Israeli belligerence? Offering to commit the US military to enforcing a no-fly zone over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan to protect Israel from retaliation? Promising to sink oil wells in every back yard in America?
I suppose they could spin it as “if only Obama had taken out Iran’s nuclear capability *earlier*, we wouldn’t be in this situation,” but c’mon. The 27 percenters will buy that, but not many others. Plus, as a number of people in the thread have already pointed out, the US military brass has pretty much said, cloaking their comments in traditional deferential language, that they will most certainly not be getting involved at this point. I doubt they would hold their tongues so tightly in the event of an unprovoked attack, leaving Republicans to decide if they want to openly attack the US military. That’ll look great.
Obama’s perfectly safe telling Netanyahu to get bent.
shep
Fuck State. The Bibi-problem, if he decides to make himself one, is what we pay the CIA for. I’m so sick of these rat-fuckers.
KXB
While Obama is not gearing up for war with Iran, what if one is thrust upon him? If Israel attacks Iran, it would be easier for Iran to hit American bases in the Persian Gulf as a retaliation than to launch its limited ballistic missiles at Israel. If Iran did that, the pressure on Obama to retaliate would be pretty heavy.
OzoneR
@Mnemosyne:
I would say it gets to the point where Iran becomes a liability, where popular support turns toward “Lets bomb the shit out of them and take the Israelis over with us”
I just don’t trust that Americans won’t come around to the idea, especially with the media drumbeat building.
Nemesis
Bibi is a neocon asshole. The entire sabre rattling episode toward Iran is designed to impact the US elections. Period.
Driving up the cost of gasoline and effecting hundreds of millions of consumers be damned! We have a mission to destroy Obama and thats what were gonna do! says Bibi behind closed doors.
Bibi is meeting with the Pres in DC this week. The WH woodshed is the better location to meet with this bloodthirsty maniac.
This reminds me of John McCains War. Missed that? Yeah, back in 2008, we got involved in a military action in Soviet Georgia. All designed to benefit Grumpy McGrumpypants. Several folks got like killed and shit but Americans hardly took notice.
The reason Bibi hasne attacked yet is that the march to war needs more time to blossom. More lies in the US press. More mushroom cloud references. That takes time people. Its hard work!
Pococurante
“Jersusalem: A Biography”.
Recommended reading – I think a lot of folks on this blog would benefit from actual history, especially the events of the very late 19th century to the mid 20th.
Long story short, the land under faltering Ottoman and later British Mandate control endured a huge influx of immigration during this period by Jews and Muslims both. They bought land that had been owned for decades and even centuries by Muslim owners who lived elsewhere.
The “Jews stole the land” accusation does not hold up well under scrutiny until these last two decades. For the last two decades it applies well, and is a fair topic of debate.
But to use that accusation to undermine the legitimacy of Israel as a country is, at best, ignorant.
Brandon
I agree with all the folks throwing cold water on this conspiracy. The mechanism that Zandar proposes is reminiscent of underpants gnome logic. There are just too many variables to be controlled for such a operation to work.