Killer cross-over

It looks like more independents and Democrats voted in the primary than was predicted. Polls have showed Romney winning Republicans and Santorum doing better with non-Republicans (especially Democrats).

OTOH, the electorate is skewing very old and turn-out looks low, which may help Romney.

I don’t buy the stuff about Jebmentum and Mitchmentum and brokered conventions, it seems to me that Romney can eventually carpet-bomb Santorum into submission with SuperPAC ads.

That’s all I’ve got. What are you hearing?

Update. Are you watching MSBNC? This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

Update. TPM says Romney by 3. Oh well.

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212 replies
  1. 1
    Dream On says:

    I’m hearing Veritas called it for Romney in the previous thread. I shall soon be broke, I bet.

  2. 2
    ExurbanMom says:

    Twitter hashtag of the day: #mehmentum.

    So much fail. Making popcorn for tonight’s results.

  3. 3
    lamh35 says:

    So okay, I assume most of us have seen Obama’s speech to UAW in Washington, so that happened at what about noonish?? So let’s imagine some independents, dems and even repub union members also heard the speech, it was indeed a barn burner and it got me pumped up. POTUS was in great form.

    Was that speech enough to get Michigan union voters and independent fired up enough to wanna mess with Romney’s head and actually decided to go ahead and cross-over in the primary. Wouldn’t that be missed by the exit polls?

    Are is that even a likely scenario?

  4. 4
    DougJarvus Green-Ellis says:

    @lamh35:

    Probably not, but I like the idea.

  5. 5
    dmsilev says:

    One of the dKos front pagers: “Robots making calls disparaging Mit Romney? That’s awful. That’s like… fratricide.”

  6. 6
    JGabriel says:

    DougJ @ Top:

    … it seems to me that Romney can eventually carpet-bomb Santorum into submission with SuperPAC ads.

    I don’t know. At this point, I’m start to think the question is, “If Romney can carpet-bomb Santorum into submission, then why hasn’t he?”

    After all, Super Tuesday is only a week away. One would think Romney would have wanted Santorum marginalized by now.

    .

  7. 7
    FuriousPhil says:

    I didn’t get a robocall from Lil’ Ricky today. Word around my little town is that people really didn’t give too much of a damn about it. The primary, that is.

    Also, the local paper published a photo of Romney Sr. and Jr. in 1970 during my town’s centennial. He was decked out in some kind of weird 19th century garb.

  8. 8
    Sad Iron says:

    What am I hearing? Santorum is all for transvaginal ultrasounds as long as doctors use their god-given utensils. (Oh, and Rick still feels really, really guilty about that awesome night with the football player in college.)

  9. 9
    lamh35 says:

    @JGabriel: Because Romney’s put himself in such a box, that he can’t really “out-wingut” Santorum, and since he already has the modeerate “liberal” republican label on him in the GOP primary, he can’t even come from Santorums’s left in a bid to challenge Santorum.

    It might actually work if he did come at Santorum from the left, he has the money, so he can still win majority and coming from left might make it easier for him in the general.

  10. 10
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    his Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

    Of course, as Tweety valiantly tried to stammer out, Santorum attacked Obama for saying what DeWine tried to say Santorum said. I heard a Sntorum spokesbot on MSNBC, I was in the car and didn’t catch his name, was trying to twist the thing Obama didn’t say into an anti-military statement, ’cause Real American 18 YOs join the military. As Rick Santorum didn’t and as I’m willing to bet the buffoon spokesbot didn’t.

  11. 11
    jwb says:

    I think you are right about Romney’s SuperPacs carpet-bombing Santorum or whichever NotRomney appears next into submission. On the other hand, it gets interesting when that tactic taken over into the general election. How effective will it actually be? That would be the difference between the close election you called the other night (if it is effective) and a blowout (if it not effective).

  12. 12
    Raven says:

    I’m trying to convince my bride that we have to vote for Ricky in the GA primary but she ain’t buyin.

  13. 13
    rikyrah says:

    as I said in the other thread…I don’t give a rat’s ass about Little Ricky winning…I just want him to stay in the race long enough to force Willard into self-financing.

    Willard Romney has never risked ANYTHING. he always rigged everything he ever did. watching him burn through his own money will put a smile on my face.

  14. 14
    Jeff Spender says:

    I’m with the family, in a small town near Lansing, watching the returns on MSNBC. We were inundated with robocalls today, and they were all hilarious.

    I couldn’t bring myself to cross-over vote for Santorum, though. Even if it was for the purposes of rat-fucking.

  15. 15

    DeWine said of Santorum, “He’s pro-life and pro-gun.” Given yesterday’s news from Ohio, that’s a rather perverse irony.

  16. 16
    DougJarvus Green-Ellis says:

    @Raven:

    I voted in the 2000 Republican primary! If I can do it, you can do it.

  17. 17
    Palli says:

    Mitt can promise Santorum a cabinet position. Secretary of health and Religious Serve
    OanyGod!

  18. 18
    Anoniminous says:

    5% reporting:

    Frothy 40.4%
    Romney_Bot 38.5%
    Coot-n-Suit 11.1%
    Fat Has-Been 6.9%

  19. 19

    I early-voted today. Tennessee is an open primary but Santorum is leading here so I didn’t need to cast a ratfucking vote. Not that I would.

    There was a line because today was the last day to early vote. Everyone looked to be in the 70s. All of them brain-dead Republicans. One old guy talking about “the liberal media,” god they repeat these things like fucking robots, they hear it on Fox and just regurgitate it back out. And then this lady was going on about Sanotrum having “values” and his 7 kids. God. Sometimes I can’t wait for these old people to fucking die off already and leave the country to the next generation. Terrible thing to say but geez. They’re half the problem, with their fucking Social Security and Medicare they want the government to stay out of.

    Of course, we really just need to get young people engaged and get them to fucking VOTE. I’m sick of young people being all wrapped up in Gossip Girl and not giving a shit about Rick Santorum taking their birth control away.

  20. 20
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Mustang Bobby: not to true wingers. They would say that if there had been teachers (if not students) packing heat, they could have dropped that kid as soon as he drew.

  21. 21
    jl says:

    ” This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen. ”

    Is he doing some kind of performance art?

  22. 22
    Raven says:

    @DougJarvus Green-Ellis: I know I can but it’s the princess I’m trying to convince!

  23. 23
    starscream says:

    Didn’t Romney have to loan himself money in 2008? Am I remembering correctly?

    “This person has kids” is the dumbest argument you could make for a politician. I heard it so many times for Palin.

  24. 24
    WereBear says:

    @Southern Beale: It is telling that two of the most fervent Fox watchers I knew turned out to have severe dementia.

    Correlation… or causation?

  25. 25
    Steve says:

    You have to remember, there is no party registration in Michigan, so the meaning of “crossover” is a little murky. Someone might be a reliable Republican voter, but if they consider themselves “independent,” then that’s what they tell the pollster and there’s nothing anybody can do about it. And if the Republican brand is toxic nationwide and people start getting embarrassed to call themselves Republicans, then guess what, all of a sudden the polls show that more independents are voting, when it might actually be the exact same people as last time.

  26. 26
    dmsilev says:

    11 percent reporting, and Frothy is up by 3 points (nearly 3,000 votes) over the Rombot. Maybe that wave of absentee votes got lost in the mail or something?

  27. 27
    David Koch says:

    Firestorm ignites with Santorum wins.

  28. 28
    jl says:

    @Southern Beale: How come we didn’t hear anything about the Tennessee primary? What is so hot about MI and AZ primaries. TN has about same population as AZ.

    Maybe it is all branding. Why not call it the Tennessee Tussle, Twelve?

  29. 29
    rikyrah says:

    @starscream:

    Yes, but it didn’t last long. Willard knows this is his LAST SHOT, so he’ll have to pony up the dough

  30. 30
    dmsilev says:

    You know, one thing we haven’t considered about a possible Frothy win. What will we do for trolls? We’re going to have to get a whole new set and break them in and everything.

    Sigh. So much to do.

  31. 31
    Kiril says:

    @Southern Beale: I clicked through the links in the post to 538 and looked at Silver’s projection for next Tuesday. He has Santorum winning TN, OK, and OH, Gingrich winning GA and Romney only winning VA.

    It must be wrong; the universe doesn’t love me that much.

  32. 32
    Veritas says:

    @dmsilev:

    On the contrary. Santorum’s strongholds are reporting first, with Romney’s base in the Detroit metro area holding back.

    With a lot of Santorum’s base (Grand Rapids) already reporting, he’s just barely holding on.

    Wait for Detroit and its suburbs to report fully.

  33. 33
    JGabriel says:

    @lamh35:

    Because Romney’s put himself in such a box, that he can’t really “out-wingut” Santorum …

    I’m not buying it. I think Romney has tried to marginalize Santorum, but failed — due to his own gaffes, and to the GOP base’s longing for a candidate who is insane in the same way they are.

    .

  34. 34
    Suffern ACE says:

    I think what matters in the race is winning confessional districts. Why do I get the feeling that Romney’s absentees are going to be concentrated in a few districts such that Santotum will end up with more electoral votes from the district count even if Romney wins the pop vote. The pop vote only gets you two extra delegates.

  35. 35
    Dream On says:

    I’m hoping to attend the Washington State caucus on March 3rd, put on my best “conservative” fundie-suit attire and throw around totally insincere cliches like “personal responsibility”, “liberal media”, “entitlement reform”, doused with creepy shallow observations about the “fundamental decency” of Santorum versus how uncomfortable Obama and his arrogant wife make me. Then I hope to vote for any candidate who can draw this thing out. And yet, it makes me a little nervous to think there might have been some smart-ass German in the 1930’s who tried to do the same thing in Germany pre-Hitler. Because when you get right down to it, Romney is the only candidate who doesn’t terrify me, magic pajamas and all.

    The prankster makes me want to do this feat, but perhaps Democrats shouldn’t play with fire.

    Thoughts, anyone?

  36. 36
    lamh35 says:

    Question: How can the networks rely on exit polling if they is so much “crossover-mischief” as they say is happening?

  37. 37
    Quincy says:

    I think Santorum pulls it out in Michigan tonight, and at this point, depending on what you mean by carpet bomb into submission, I don’t see that happening either. I’d be beyond shocked if Santorum won the nomination, Mittens’ money and organizational edge should allow him to grind it out in the long run. And he will carpet bomb Santorum in a number of states. But if you meant that he could use his money to deliver a knockout blow before June, I think the ship is pretty close to having sailed on that. This is going to be long, bloody, wingerific spectacle that burns through Mittens’ warchest. The only chance I give Santorum is if the establishment publicly freaks out after tonight or Super Tuesday – like the anonymous Senator who reportedly said he’d publicly call for a new candidate if Romney lost Michigan – in a way that cripples Mitt. Ultimately, I don’t think they’re that dumb so we’ll end up with a humiliated Mitt who is loaning money to his own campaign and already be scapegoated by the wingers for their upcoming loss.

  38. 38
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @jl:

    She said early-voting. Is the TN primary on Super Tuesday?

    From what I’ve seen so far (and it is early) Romney is winning metro Detroit but getting killed out in the rural parts, particularly Dutch Country on the Lake Michigan coast. Northern Michigan and the UP are more even.

  39. 39
    arguingwithsignposts says:

    @Veritas:

    with Romney’s base in the Detroit metro area holding back.

    I thought Romney’s base was the INSURMOUNTABLE absentee ballots?

  40. 40
    Raven says:

    @lamh35: Because they axe people when they exit. Science!

  41. 41
    Elizabelle says:

    @Anoniminous

    Coot-n-Suit

    love it

  42. 42
    arguingwithsignposts says:

    @Suffern ACE:

    I think what matters in the race is winning confessional districts.

    Perhaps a Freudian slip, but it fits sooooo well.

  43. 43
    hamletta says:

    @Southern Beale: Thanks be to God! I really didn’t want to vote for Frothy, even as a joke. I completely understand Raven’s wife/gf’s reluctance — or in my case, repulsion.

    Authoritarian Catholics make me stabby.

  44. 44
    David Koch says:

    @Quincy:

    I think Santorum pulls it out in Michigan tonight

    Pulls it out?

    I thought he was against even basic birth control.

  45. 45
    Elizabelle says:

    @Dream On:

    Yeah, I’m very concerned about unintended results.

  46. 46
    Dream On says:

    @Veritas:

    On the contrary. Santorum’s strongholds are reporting first, with Romney’s base in the Detroit metro area holding back. With a lot of Santorum’s base (Grand Rapids) already reporting, he’s just barely holding on. Wait for Detroit and its suburbs to report fully.

    Yes, because Detroit will just love Romney’s desire to let GM go bankrupt if necessary. And there are so many Republicans left in Detroit, after all.

    Methinks this is another snark attack. And as another wag posted a few weeks ago, the bank will no longer allow me to even try to submit one of your advice-driven checks.

  47. 47
    Veritas says:

    @arguingwithsignposts:

    It is. But they’ll be reported in the Detroit metro area, mostly.

  48. 48
    Suffern ACE says:

    @awsp – I have autocorrect fail.

  49. 49
    Raven says:

    Romney in AZ
    Too Close in Michigan

  50. 50
    Veritas says:

    @Dream On:

    Detroit suburbs, dipshit. Oakland County especially. Along with Grosse Pointe in Wayne County.

  51. 51
    MAC says:

    I just got a robo-call from the Romney campaign to dissuade Democrats from voting in the primary. Except I’m in Ohio. Apparently they don’t want whatever happened in Michigan tonight spreading to other states.

  52. 52
    Steve says:

    @Veritas: Setting aside whether Grand Rapids is really Santorum’s base (it isn’t), Oakland County has reported 4% and Kent County has reported a whopping 3%. So no, most of Grand Rapids is not in.

  53. 53
    Raven says:

    @Veritas: Well, yeah. But things would be different if there was pie.

  54. 54
    dmsilev says:

    18% in and the Rombot has taken a narrow lead (first time tonight).

    He’s just barely breaking 40% in his home state. Feel the Mittmentum!

  55. 55
    Nix says:

    I am watching MSNBC and Maddow is looking so hot!
    So sad girls only…

  56. 56
    Raven says:

    Hey, there are billboards in the ATL with “I’m A Mormon and pics of “diverse” folks.

  57. 57
    Raven says:

    @Nix: The purple eyeshadow seems new.

  58. 58
    Veritas says:

    @Nix:

    I think you may be closeted.

  59. 59
    David Koch says:

    @dmsilev: The upper peninsula is Man-on-Dog territory, and its polls just closes, and hasn’t reported, as it’s in the the central time zone.

  60. 60
    Jeff Spender says:

    If I wasn’t so sure Michigan would be going to President Obama in the general, I wouldn’t find this whole primary hilarious.

    Mitt really, really messed up with his let Detroit die rhetoric. I saw the UAW speech earlier. I live in a UAW family with many people working at the plants or living on dwindling pensions. They loved Obama’s speech, especially the parts about values.

    Still, I think it would be hilarious if Santorum managed to walk away with this.

  61. 61
    Donald G says:

    @arguingwithsignposts:

    I thought Romney’s base was the INSURMOUNTABLE absentee ballots?

    The Detroit metro area is clearly Veritas’s final fallback position for eking out a VICTORY!

    When push comes to shove, as the night goes on and things don’t go Veritas’s way, he always plays the metropolitan card. It’s a good card to play since under normal circumstances, it works.

    But it’s really extra-delicious on those occasions when the urban vote doesn’t save Veritas’s ass from being unable to cash the checks that his mouth foolishly writes.

    ETA: As I was writing this post, Romney has jumped into the lead by 4000 votes. Let’s see if he can hold or expand upon it.

  62. 62
    Raven says:

    @Veritas: If it be a sin to covet pie, I am the most offending soul.

  63. 63
    ChrisNYC says:

    i still think romney takes it — tonight and the whole thing. Santorum, his whole career, has not stood out front. He’s a grifter, like the rest. Ride on the extremes, scream and yell and slip away from accountability or responsibility. I even think his “boo college” and “sex is icky!” stuff might have been intentional. Guy doesn’t want the main play or geez to hold the bag for the crushing loss. he wants a cushy place at the head of the (revitalized) social con constituency. Lots of tv time, little work, and the all important dollares.

  64. 64
    Dream On says:

    @Veritas: Dipshit? Way to assume a gender, you piss-poor soothsaying Mark Penn wannabe.

  65. 65
    Raven says:

    @ChrisNYC: Of course it’s intentional. dang

  66. 66
    max says:

    @Dream On: Because when you get right down to it, Romney is the only candidate who doesn’t terrify me, magic pajamas and all.

    I find Romney as terrifying or more so than the rest. He’s the kind of guy that will kill a man, just to avoid making a payroll. Worse, I really don’t want to listen to four years of upper-class centrists explaining how ‘entitlement’ cuts and putting all social security money into the stock market is an economically efficient thing to do.

    So go vote for Dicky.

    max
    [‘Anything that screws up Republicans is good. All else is bad.’]

  67. 67
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

    As Tweety said, “You’re articulate.”

    I’ve known DeWine’s name for a long time but haven’t paid much attention to him before now. Yeah, for a Santorum supporter he comes across as amazingly sane.

  68. 68
    Raven says:

    @Dream On: Keep talking at it, that’s why it’s here.

  69. 69
    The Dangerman says:

    Hold on, I thought I could take a Romney VICTORY to the bank. A slam dunk. A bunny (for you non-ballers, a bunny is a layup).

    Veritas wouldn’t lie to me, would he/she/it?

    (Edited for Gender and Species neutrality)

  70. 70
    Raven says:

    @The Dangerman: cherry pickin mofo

  71. 71
    ChrisNYC says:

    @Raven: i mean intentionally trying to lose. but ok, I didn’t realize that was a given.

  72. 72
    Veritas says:

    @Dream On:

    Uh, if I can quote, he said “So sad, girls only”. Sorrow over the fact she’s a lesbian says she’s male. Now go shove your politically correct horseshit up your ass, fuckstick.

  73. 73
    Raven says:

    @ChrisNYC: Oh, I thought you meant sayin that shit, my bad, poor reading comp.

  74. 74
  75. 75
    Palli says:

    ” This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen. ”

    Oh, please…DeWine is a pill, as my mother would say. An empty head passing as an egghead. He is pussy footing around Kasich while his son, Kevin DeWine fights Kasich headon (but only in republican political power circles, he isn’t fighting for Ohio people). Mike DeWine is wasting Ohio taxpayers money joining 5 other states fighting the contraception insurance issue- he was a bad senator, he is a bad Attorney General. He lost his Senate seat roundly to Sherrod Brown, thank heavens.

  76. 76
    Dream On says:

    @Raven: You’re right. Whiners are gonna whine, haters are gonna hate, and trolls are going to eat grubs, chase children and troll away on the internet.

    Point taken.

  77. 77
    Raven says:

    @Veritas: Gimme a P! Gimme an I! Gimme an E! What’s it spell? PIE!

  78. 78
    Veritas says:

    @Veritas:

    Correction: says HE is male.

  79. 79
    Donald G says:

    And Romney’s lead is growing. Veritas may end up going to bed happy tonight.

    He’s overdue for some good news.

  80. 80
    Veritas says:

    Oh, and I think you mean “assume sex.” Gender is a grammar term. Male/female is “sex”.

  81. 81
    Raven says:

    @Dream On: It don’t matter, plenty of folk still play.

  82. 82
    Viva BrisVegas says:

    What does Olympia Snowe’s retirement do to Republican hopes in the Senate?

  83. 83
    Raven says:

    @Veritas: It was clever, was it not, of the universe to name, after pie, the constant which ties the radius of a pie (the side of a slice) to the circumference of the pie (the number of inches of foil you’ll need to cover the edge after the first 15 minutes) ? Well, I think it’s clever, anyway.

  84. 84
    glitter says:

    @Verispaz

    Now go shove your politically correct horseshit up your ass, fuckstick.

    Awwww. U mad, bro?

  85. 85
    lamh35 says:

    So can any Michiganders(??) tell me what counties we are supposed to be looking at?

  86. 86
    Veritas says:

    @Donald G:

    Damn straight. I told you Romney’s early vote lead was absolutely INSURMOUNTABLE.

  87. 87
    redshirt says:

    @Veritas: LOL. You make me laugh Veritas. You’re so fake sincere and enthusiastic, it’s simply adorable. Keep on trollin’ on, my troll.

  88. 88
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    Romney’s pulling out in front, but (caveat) it’s been precincts from Oakland/Livingston counties and not much elsewhere trickling in, so make of it what you will. He’s only up by 3 points.

  89. 89
    The Dangerman says:

    @Raven:

    cherry pickin mofo

    Hey, whatever it takes to get the rock to the rack.

  90. 90
    dmsilev says:

    @Viva BrisVegas: Turns a safe-GOP seat into something that’s probably either a toss-up or lean-D. Means that they’d probably need to pick up one additional seat somewhere else to flip the Senate.

  91. 91
    Donald G says:

    Romney’s lead is now up over 9000, almost 10,000 over the Sanctimonious One.

  92. 92
    Raven says:

    @The Dangerman: Fuckin A, they don’t ask how, they ask how many!

  93. 93
    chopper says:

    Jesus, this choad is barely going to beat rih santorum in his own fucking home state. much less top 50. this guy is terminally incapable of sealing the fucking deal. we’re going through august all right.

  94. 94
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Raven: Those have been up for a while, at least along the Peachtree Industrial Boulevard corridor. Haven’t seen one recently (or at least, haven’t paid attention) but I remember seeing them every day on my way to work for a while last fall.

  95. 95
    Viva BrisVegas says:

    @Veritas:

    I think you mean “assume sex.” Gender is a grammar term. Male/female is “sex”.

    I’ve always seen gender as the cultural expression of sex, i.e. someone can be female gender and male sex and vice versa.

  96. 96
    jheartney says:

    Glad the troll could make it. Watching it retreat from one fallback position to the next will help while away the hours.

  97. 97
    Jeff Spender says:

    @lamh35:

    You’re pretty much going to want to watch the Detroit suburbs. The counties around Grand Rapids (I couldn’t actually name them, though I’ve lived in Michigan for 24 years because, well, it’s Grand Rapids) are also important. The Upper Peninsula is probably where Santorum will perform strongly.

    I would suspect, also, that my own Washtenaw County will produce interesting results, as that is the home of my beloved Ann Arbor and the most liberal area in the state (also, it’s the most literate, smartest, and best city for singles in the U.S.)

  98. 98
    Raven says:

    @chopper: I repeat, that home state stuff is just total bullshit. Motherfucker ain’t no Motor City homeboy.

  99. 99
    lamh35 says:

    Question: Is there anyway of knowing whether or not these early returns are from absentee ballots which should skew more toward Mittens?

  100. 100
    Anoniminous says:

    Wayne county coming in big for Mittens 53% to 26%.

  101. 101
    Veritas says:

    @Viva BrisVegas:

    No, it’s not. Only “progressive” college professors in the last 20 years think something this ridiculous.

  102. 102

    @Dream On:

    Crossing over for Santorum:

    I understand the feeling. The whole idea makes me nervous. What if, heaven help us, Savonarola should actually win? And I helped him get there? And then he turns loose his God-forsaken id and all hell breaks loose? How much of that would I have assisted?

    Scary.

  103. 103
    dmsilev says:

    @chopper: He’s on track to do about one or two percentage points better than he did against McCain in 2008. And McCain, for all his problems, was one heck of a better candidate than Santorum.

    Apparently, Mitt Romney has gotten worse at campaigning over the last four years.

  104. 104
    SuzieC says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: DeWine and Sanctorum were good buddies in the Senate. Both conservative Xtians with large families. Both lost their Senate seats in 2006. A bonding experience.

  105. 105
    Raven says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: There was one on 85 s by REI on my trip back from the damn airport Hilton today.

  106. 106
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Davis X. Machina:

    Well, that’s true. I’m racking my brain and I can’t think of any other (non-ironical) Santorum supporters.

  107. 107
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @Jeff Spender:

    Romney’s up big in Ann Arbor now. I kind of expected Paul to do (relatively) big there, but he’s actually under what’s he’s getting statewide.

  108. 108
    Raven says:

    @Jeff Spender: Wonder who John Sinclair voted for?

  109. 109
    Mr Stagger Lee says:

    Over/under bet minorities in the background of GOP candidates: 4

  110. 110
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Raven:

    You’re right! My carpool partner noticed it and commented (I was busy trying to chane lanes).

  111. 111
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Raven:

    You’re right! My carpool partner noticed it and commented (I was busy trying to change lanes).

  112. 112
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @Raven:

    Well, no. He’s a West Bloomfield homeboy. About as similar to the rest of Michigan as Kenilworth is to the rest of Illinois.

  113. 113
    Raven says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: A death defying act at any time of day.

  114. 114
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @SuzieC:

    Heh. Losing together could do that.

  115. 115
    Jeff Spender says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    That’s what I find surprising. I would expect Ron Paul to do very well in Ann Arbor and Washtenaw. I would also expect Romney to do very well there as well.

    @Raven:

    Not really, no.

  116. 116
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @Jeff Spender:

    And the upper Peninsula is going for Rick, but not by much: 2-3 points in most counties. Santorum’s winning biggest in the southwestern part of the state.

  117. 117

    This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

    His soul is tacked up in Satan’s upstairs bathroom, where The Dark One occasionally uses it to buff his talons.

    @SiubhanDuinne: It’s his eminence front. Think of him as a barnacle in search of another hull ever since the SS GWBush hit the rocks.

  118. 118
    lamh35 says:

    So it looks like Romney’s gonna win Michigan. Twitter saying that Mittens campaign is gonna use the robocalls against Santorum.

    But if Romney wins won’t it make the robocalls mute?

    ETA: BTW, I think Santorums knocking of JFK ruined his support among Catholics. Exit polls showing Romeny beating Santorums with Catholics.

  119. 119
    Raven says:

    @Spaghetti Lee: Yea but it ain’t really his home state. I was born in Urbana, lived in North Chicago, moved to LA in 57, back to Villa Park in 60, army 66, back to Urbana 69-84 and Georgia for the rest. I guess I could claim Illinois but it would be baloney. I just don’t think that shit means anything.

  120. 120
    Veritas says:

    And it’s over.

    Romney wins.

    Goodnight, folks.

  121. 121
    Dream On says:

    @Linda Featheringill:

    What if, heaven help us, Savonarola should actually win? And I helped him get there? And then he turns loose his God-forsaken id and all hell breaks loose? How much of that would I have assisted?

    For sure – Santorum is the Inquisitional bigot that Jello Biafra has been warning us about for 30 years in his music and words. The fundie hair, the bizarre repressed sweater vest, the whole deal. America really could end up looking a lot like a McNaughton painting.

  122. 122
  123. 123
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Raven:

    I’ve thought and thought about that. I think i’ll just freak out all the little old lady poll-watchers in my ultraconservative Gwinnett County precinct, and request a Dem ballot and vote for Obama.

  124. 124
    some guy says:

    VICTORY is ours conmrades, VeritASS HAS TOLD US SO.

    watching Romney win in a squeaker tonight in MI, then lose Ohio and Kentucky as he wins the Old Dominion State (Gingrinch and Frothy ain’t be on da ole time ballot) will warm the cockles of my heart. let 1,000 Media Bookers Bloom, this is gonna be a Long March, comrades

  125. 125
    Baud says:

    @Veritas:

    Goodnight, folks.

    And goodbye forever.

  126. 126
    FlipYrWhig says:

    Thadeus McCotter is one seriously weird dude. He was like a character being played by John Malkovich after taking a handful of unlabeled pills.

  127. 127
    Raven says:

    @SiubhanDuinne: She ain’t movin one inch.

  128. 128
    vheidi says:

    @dmsilev: thanks for sharing ;-)

  129. 129

    @MAC: That’s pretty fucking stupid. Ohio is a closed primary state. Staying home on March 6th deprives a bunch of judges and local ballot issues the vote. As a registered Democrat, the RepubliKKKan Insane Klown Kar Posse is off limits.

  130. 130
    lamh35 says:

    @Raven: shit, I knew that, but I missed the window to edit it.

    darnit.

  131. 131
    Steve says:

    @Raven: I am from Michigan and I think Romney’s home-state advantage is legit. The name means something politically and he understands the local details better than an outsider. I’m not saying it’s like, you know, Tim Tebow in Florida, but I do think it gives him an edge and it’s not bullshit.

  132. 132
    SiubhanDuinne says:

    @Raven:

    I try not to phrase it in those exact words, but yeah.

  133. 133
    Elizabelle says:

    Watching a PBS documentary on The Amish.

    They’re driving around in an SUV and considering undeveloped property in Colorado. Kid you not.

    Now for teenagers’ Rumspringa. (“Running around.”)

  134. 134
    DanielX says:

    Reprint, but I can’t help it.

    Mitt Romney, the man who never had a principle he couldn’t give up for the sake of expediency and votes.

    Mittens: Go home. Nobody likes you – fuck, dude, most of the people in your own party don’t like you and they’re supposed to be your supporters. There’s not enough money in the world to buy enough votes to make you Preznit, not to mention that if you blow the family wad your own kids will put out a contract on your ass. Do something else that you might actually enjoy. Go buy a private island. Buy a private jet. Buy a Ferrari. Hoover up a ton of Bolivian marching powder and hire some hookers. Face it, you’ve been running for Pres full time since 2006 and people think you suck; they think you’re a rich Wall Street prick who lies like a rug and the longer you run the more people think you suck. Give it up and go do something else (constructive or not), because this thing you so deeply desire isn’t going to happen.

    (Besides, if Little Ricky gets the nomination he’ll not only lose big but the Rs will probably lose the House too, but we won’t get into that because we’re too nice.)

  135. 135
    lamh35 says:

    does anyone know if the reports include absentee ballots?

  136. 136
    Raven says:

    @lamh35: And I tried to delete mine but the option wasn’t there for some reason. :(

  137. 137
    Raven says:

    @Steve: Chieu Hoi

  138. 138
    Jeff Spender says:

    @Steve:

    I agree with this. I think a lot of people remember George Romney as being a decent governor and that Romney name helps Mitt a lot.

  139. 139
    some guy says:

    not gonna wait for moderation to clear me.

  140. 140
    Raven says:

    @SiubhanDuinne:http://www.theweekly.com/news/.....ia.htmlYou see the Gov’s education announcement today? It’s a pretty interesting effort, first time the university and tech school systems have worked together.

  141. 141
    S. cerevisiae says:

    @Veritas:

    Sarah Palin came over last night, and we ate her famous moose pie.

    TMI…

  142. 142
    Steve says:

    @Raven: Ni hao, Kai-lan?

  143. 143
    baldheadeddork says:

    I just looked up the 2012 Republican primaries on Wikipedia and RCP. If their information is right, it’s possible and moving to probable that no one can win this nomination.

    Go and check out the delegate allocation. A candidate needs 1144 delegates to lock up the nomination. In all the remaining primaries, there are just 417 delegates in winner-take-all states. 109 of those are in states with open primaries, 89 of those in Wisconsin and New Jersey where are enough organized Democrats to affect the outcome.

    Everything else is proportional by state results, winner-take-all by congressional district, or chosen at a state convention based on caucus results. As long as there are at least three people in the race and the “winner” is kept below 50%, it will be impossible for any of the four to get to 1144.

    If the calendar were spread out evenly between now and late June there might be time for superpac funders to turn off the money spout. But twenty states will vote in the next two weeks and when it’s done 979 of the 2268 non-NRC delegates will have been chosen. Even if it becomes a two man race by March 15, the stronger of the remaining two candidates would have to post blowout wins in all of the remaining contests to get 1144.

    That’s a simple run of the numbers, but when you put names to this the chances of no one winning skyrockets. Super Tuesday will be brutal for Romney. He might not even win Massachusetts if Democrats turn out in large numbers to vote against him. The next two weeks are no easier for him. He’ll be overachieving to win more than three (Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont) of the 22 races in March. Santorum and Gingrich will be fighting for the wins and it’s unlikely that one will break out over the other. Trading wins should be enough to keep their SuperPAC financiers writing checks. Last, the extraordinary slime and animosity between the three will make it unlikely that anyone will drop out and throw their support behind anyone else.

    Tonight was Romney’s last, best chance to lock this up. Had he crushed Santorum in Michigan he would have carried some momentum into Super Tuesday and his SuperPAC’s could have buried Gingrich in enough states to cripple Newt after that. Instead we’ve got three dwarfs, none of them strong enough to knock anyone else out.

  144. 144
    Raven says:

    @Steve: Chieu Hoi (Open Arms) was a program where VC/NVA could surrender and we’d give em money and shit. I was surrendering to you with a better perspective.

  145. 145
    St. Trinian's grad says:

    @Dream On: If it were me, I’d pay attention to that little voice. I recall polls giving Alex Sink a comfortable lead over Rick Scott, and here we are with The. Worst. Governor. Ever.

  146. 146
    Dream On says:

    I still remember my dad shaking his head in bemused non-surprise when the Washington State caucus voted for Pat Robertson in 1988. There were not a lot of Democrats crossing party lines to vote in that caucus – that silly Robertson kiss was just the way the state Republican party was, and in many ways, still is. The state GOP’s complete inability to find winning moderate candidates has led to a strong domination by Democrats here since at least 1984. Even their new bright GOP hope for governor – McKenna – I just don’t see it. Say hello Governor Inslee. McKenna will be this year’s Dino Rossi – close but no cigar.

    As for the caucus next week, I wouldn’t count out Santorum to win here, or even Ron Paul to make a major showing. Sinc e the caucus system takes hours on a precious Saturday anyway, only Santorum & Paul supporters will have the energy to stick around. It really could turn into one of those “Ron Paul is stealthily amassing the true delegates” scenarios.

    Still thinking about going, though, as I like reflecting foolish arguments back at fools. Perhaps that makes me insincere. But I’m glad we’re all still typing away, as opposed to the raging a-hole who seems to have fallen off his troll bar-stool for the night.

  147. 147
    scav says:

    That was simply the saddest little squeak of victory. Our chew toy has really really lost his bounce. It’s like the beepy watch going under the water in Local Hero.

  148. 148
    Martin says:

    Michigan on track to come in ahead of 2008 turnout. Progress!

  149. 149
  150. 150
    The Dangerman says:

    @BruceFromOhio:

    His soul is tacked up in Satan’s upstairs bathroom…

    So, it was like an upper decker (urban dictionary version and, no, possibly NSFW)?

  151. 151
    Donald G says:

    @scav:

    That was simply the saddest little squeak of victory. Our chew toy has really really lost his bounce. It’s like the beepy watch going under the water in Local Hero.

    Romney’s now opened an almost 23,000 vote lead over Sick Rantorum in MI.

    You’d think that after all the embarrassment he’s suffered this primary season, Mitt’s puppy-dog would hang around to gloat.

    I guess the cage atop the car-roof is waiting for its journey to the Super-Tuesday states and the next round of Romney losses.

    ETA: Now it’s up to a 28,000 vote lead.

  152. 152
    Elizabelle says:

    @baldheadeddork:

    interesting analysis.

    Has the primary been called?

    Watching Frontline on Fukushima and events as reactor troubles developed.

  153. 153
    Martin says:

    Finally just watched Obama’s UAW talk. Man, if he brings that game everywhere – watch out.

  154. 154
    stickler says:

    Does the Michigan GOP count votes like every other state so far has done? That is to say, are they going to tell us in a week’s time, “oh, hey, here’s a county or two we forgot to include! Whoopsies!”

    It’s not like it hasn’t happened already multiple times. And usually (hmmm!) to Willard’s benefit.

  155. 155
    Valdivia says:

    why is everyone calling it for Romney if they’re still counting votes?

  156. 156
    Martin says:

    HAHAHA – Romney won Catholic voters in Michigan.

  157. 157
    Dream On says:

    Can anyone here – someone credible, no not that jerk – tell me if the delegates involved tonight are winner-take-all or proportional? Knowing that might change the perception of tonight no matter who “wins”. And a Romney 3% win in Michigan would be truly pathetic, and should set off alarm bells for his camp.

  158. 158
    JordanRules says:

    @Martin: You have a good linky?

  159. 159
    Donald G says:

    @stickler:

    Does the Michigan GOP count votes like every other state so far has done? That is to say, are they going to tell us in a week’s time, “oh, hey, here’s a county or two we forgot to include! Whoopsies!”

    In the states where Romney was later found not to have won after all, the vote tallies were a lot closer than the almost 30,000 vote difference we’re seeing in Michigan tonight.

    As the old saying goes, “If the vote ain’t close, then they can’t cheat.”

  160. 160
    Martin says:

    @JordanRules: Just watched the short clip at TPM.

  161. 161
    Elizabelle says:

    @Dream On:

    Think Arizona is winner take all and Michigan is proportional??

  162. 162
    The Dangerman says:

    @Dream On:

    Can anyone here – someone credible, no not that jerk – tell me if the delegates involved tonight are winner-take-all or proportional?

    Arizona is WTA; Michigan is proportional.

    Oh, my bad, you wanted someone credible (slinks away).

  163. 163
    Martin says:

    @Valdivia:

    why is everyone calling it for Romney if they’re still counting votes?

    They use exit polling to project what the vote will be in each precinct. They can then count what’s come in, look at the exit poll model to see what the remaining votes should be, and when it’s far enough outside the margin of error, then they’ll call it. It’s much more reliable than people want to believe that it is.

  164. 164
    Elizabelle says:

    @Martin:

    Hee hee. I remember all those walls with pictures of JFK up.

    Don’t imagine Pennsylvania is plastered with photos of Rick Santorum.

  165. 165
    Martin says:

    @The Dangerman: Arizona WANTS to be WTA. Not clear if it will be allowed to be or not. Michigan is definitely proportional.

  166. 166
    Karen says:

    So Romney won…is there any possibility that the same thing that happened in Iowa will happen here? Will there suddenly be a case of Santorum winning but later?

  167. 167
    Dream On says:

    @The Dangerman: No, you’ll do. Seriously, thanks indeed.

    So what the headlines tomorrow should read is, “Mittster & the Grand Inquisitor tie for delegates in Romney’s boyhood state. Each claim victory.”

  168. 168
    MAC says:

    @BruceFromOhio I know it’s a closed primary in Ohio but after that call, I’m not so sure the Romney campaign know it’s a closed primary. Unless they really think Democrats are going to ignore all the other races and switch their registration to Republican just to mess with the Republican presidential primary.

  169. 169
    Valdivia says:

    @Martin:
    Thank you! In international voting observing the rule is never to trust exit polls as projection of votes, but base only on quick count at precinct level. This is the only reason I asked. Also I was out til now and had no idea what was going on.

  170. 170
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    Jesus, I flipped over to watch half an episode of 30 rock, and Rikki is still jabbering? I unmated long enough to hear him say “faith”.

  171. 171
    Martin says:

    @Valdivia:

    In international voting observing the rule is never to trust exit polls as projection of votes, but base only on quick count at precinct level.

    Our media overlords have other ideas. My main problem with how they do it is that they have an vested interest in cutting it as thin as they can to scoop the other networks, and then they fuck up – like they did in FL in 2000 and numerous other places – Indiana, Missouri – I can remember a few others.

  172. 172
    trollhattan says:

    @The Dangerman:

    On NPR they said Michigan was proportional, but somehow based on congressional districts not total vote statewide. I confess I didn’t completely understand–does that mean there are N delegates/district and therefore, a relative few votes will take a mostly Democratic disctrict?

    Regardless, the outcome is less than convincing for Willard.

  173. 173
    Martin says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Jesus, I flipped over to watch half an episode of 30 rock, and Rikki is still jabbering?

    Yes, he’s going on now about how Obama is too smart and well-bred to run America. Cannot make this shit up.

  174. 174
    ChrisNYC says:

    just want to say how much I despise santorum. direct fricking beneficiary of everything he now rails against. really really want to punch him in the face.

  175. 175
    amk says:

    @trollhattan: I think sick rantorum wins more delegates at the end of it all. What a “win” for willard.

  176. 176
    trollhattan says:

    @ChrisNYC:

    You are so behind me in that enormous, enormous line. His preening arrogance is a thing to behold. And punch.

  177. 177
    General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero) says:

    Romney wins? Drat.

  178. 178
    Martin says:

    @trollhattan: Michigan was supposed to have 59 delegates but that was reduced to 30, from what I understand, because they moved their primary forward.

    The formula is 2 delegates per CD (14 CDs) plus 2 for the state winner. So, Mitt won MI, but it only carries half the weight that it should.

  179. 179
    amk says:

    so operation hilarity turned out to be just that. yet another markos harebrained scheme fail.

  180. 180
    Valdivia says:

    @Martin:
    agreed.

  181. 181
    Egg Berry says:

    @trollhattan: A preening arrogant prick versus a feckless arrogant prick. Punches all around!

  182. 182
    max says:

    Well, it’s a bit of a bummer that Romney won, but he’s weak so that’s good.

    More weeks of upscale folks telling us there’s no way anyone but Romney can win, and so we should just give it to him.

    max
    [‘Going to keep my fingers crossed for a Super Tuesday meltdown of epic proportions.’]

  183. 183
    trollhattan says:

    @Martin:

    There it is. Me understand now; thanks for the explanation!

    No wonder veritas hasn’t oozed over here to crow. Crow not especially tasty.

  184. 184
    Suffern ACE says:

    @Martin: Catholics have probably encountered a Santorum or two on their spiritual journeys, in Catholic camp or high school or whatnot, and knowing the type, will throw in with the mormon and take their chances.

  185. 185
    The Moar You Know says:

    Why isn’t this credit to the force in jail?

  186. 186
    Suffern ACE says:

    @Martin: He spent a lot of money for a symbolic victory, and I bet it will be worth Vermont.

  187. 187
    Martin says:

    @Suffern ACE: Oh, yeah, all credit to the Catholic voters here – but it’s got to sting Pope Frothy.

  188. 188
    Steve says:

    Here is a great nugget from the exit polls. Primary voters were about evenly split on supporting or opposing the auto bailout, which isn’t really surprising. But Romney, the most famous bailout opponent on Earth, did 5 points better among the voters who supported the bailout than he did with the voters who opposed it!

  189. 189
    Elizabelle says:

    “Democrat Congress. Failed presidency .

    These days when he’s not spending our money or infringing our rights ….”

    Obama unresponsive to our people and would be unrestrained in a second term …

    gag.

  190. 190
    Elizabelle says:

    And a promise to repeal Obamacare.

    To cheers.

    In an economically devastated state.

  191. 191

    @Steve: Electability, pure and simple.

  192. 192

    @trollhattan:

    His preening arrogance is a thing to behold. And punch.

    The commenters at RedState refer to Santorum as “sanctimonious” and admit to the same impulse to punch him in the face.

  193. 193
    ladies auxiliary fuckhead (a/k/a eemom) says:

    oh FUCK.

    I confess, I am brutally disappointed. I confess I wanted Santorscum to win to fuck them up even more. I confess. Now please kill me. kthxbai.

  194. 194
    Suffern ACE says:

    @Steve: Well, Santorum also opposed the bailout aned screamed that loud and clear. So all things being equal, why choose Santorum?

  195. 195
    Martin says:

    @Elizabelle:

    In an economically devastated state.

    None of the 6 figure earners standing behind him are economically devastated.

  196. 196
    Steve says:

    @Elizabelle: Voters making under 100K went mostly for Santorum. Romney won because of a 2-1 margin with voters making more than 200K! 200K is a lot anywhere, but people making 200K in Michigan (as opposed to, say, New York City) are doing incredibly well. The last thing Romney’s base is concerned about is an inability to get health care.

  197. 197
    baldheadeddork says:

    @Dream On:

    Can anyone here – someone credible, no not that jerk – tell me if the delegates involved tonight are winner-take-all or proportional?

    Arizona is winner-take-all.

    Michigan has 30 delegates. Two are at-large and are awarded proportionally by the statewide results. The rest are winner-take-all by the results in the fifteen congressional districts.

    I don’t know how the delegates are assigned to the CD’s. Republicans in some states give more delegates to districts where Republicans are stronger. (The national GOP assigns state delegate allotments this way, Georgia has 50% more delegates in the Republican primary than New Jersey.) If this is how the Michigan GOP does business, Santorum will clean up on delegates. Romney’s votes are concentrated in CD’s that are Democratic strongholds.

  198. 198
    Steve says:

    @Suffern ACE: I don’t know what you mean by “loud and clear.” Romney spent far, far more time talking about the bailout issue than Santorum did.

  199. 199
    trollhattan says:

    @Linda Featheringill:

    Oh shite, “We’re all Red-Staters nao.”

    I’m finishing this wine, stat.

  200. 200
    Elizabelle says:

    @Martin:
    @Steve:

    Jerks. No concern for those not in their paygrade.

  201. 201
    Martin says:

    I have to say, I really like Steve Schmidt. For the guy that ran McCain’s campaign, he doesn’t bring the crazy. I can see why Rachel likes him on her show.

  202. 202
    Cacti says:

    Mittens wins Arizona easily.

    No surprise there. Cult loyalty overrides all other concerns for Mormon voters.

  203. 203
    Elizabelle says:

    @Martin:

    Think Sarah Palin despises Schmidt? That’s a useful character reference.

  204. 204
    El Cid says:

    TPM had some crosstabs showing that once again, Mitt really shines in locking down the $200K/yr+ vote, something like 55-29% over Santorum.

    It was the same way in a number of earlier contests. Mitt gets the votes of those earning a few hundred thousand. The rest of the demographics vary from place to place.

  205. 205
    jonas says:

    Santorum is, like all the others before him, a not-Romney also-ran whose pan flash will soon dim. He energizes the real nutballs, but in the end, most Republican primary voters, along with their billionaire overlords, are going with the guy they know has something just above a snowball’s chance in hell of beating Obama. Of course, the current knock-out, drag-out between Santorum and Romney is great for popcorn sales and all, but Santorum will eventually implode after challenging Romney to a trial by ordeal to prove his orthodox faith or something.

    Romney will be the nominee. Everyone will hate it, but he will be the nominee. But I think Obama, as always, “has got this.”

  206. 206
    David Koch says:

    lemme get this straight.

    Romney will barely hang on to his home state after outspending his retarded opponent 3 to 1.

    Got it.

    Can you imagine if that was a Democrat. For example, if somehow Andrew Cuomo barely held off the retarded Carl Paladino, instead of beating him by 30 pts.

  207. 207
    pseudonymous in nc says:

    @Suffern ACE: Sounds about right to me. Pope Frothy I doesn’t talk like a Catholic. He talks like a megapastor, and my guess is that vomiting on Saint JFK of Marilyn-Banging’s grave was anathema, even to conservative Catholics.

  208. 208
    gaz says:

    *shakes head*

    people, I’ve said all along, Romney will win the nom and lose the general.

    damnit people, this stuff is like wrestling (at least that crap that was around on teh tubez when I was growing up). the results were determined in advance.

    This is just a bunch of mental masturbation

  209. 209
    Riilism says:

    @gaz: Stop trying to cock block my mental masturbation…

  210. 210
  211. 211
    Kristen says:

    @Southern Beale:

    I saw a line here in Davidson County yesterday…same scene. I think Santo will win easily here. I’m with ya on the generational despair…

  212. 212
    Kristen says:

    @baldheadeddork: Really astute analysis that mirrors my own ;)

Comments are closed.