I always thought it was because of his incipient senility, or the fact that his prunes and Metamucil worked that morning, but it turns out that Ron Paul has another reason to be smiling ever time he announces that he “lost” a straw poll. His supporters are being elected as delegates in bigger numbers than the straw poll totals indicate.
It works like this: Romney, Santorum and Gingrich supporters vote in the straw poll, then leave. Paul supporters vote in the poll and stay around for the county business meeting to be elected delegates. Because those delegates are completely loyal to Paul, not to the straw poll results, Paul, not Romney, Gingrich or Santorum, might actually be winning the caucuses. So, who the hell knows how many delegates any Republican has at this point.
Even before this news broke, it was pretty clear that the Republican caucuses were a shitshow. For example, in Maine, which Romney “won” this week, there were about 5,500 votes cast. That’s something like 1% of the registered Republicans in the state. That makes it about as meaningful as the 3,400 vote CPAC straw poll, which Romney also won.
If their strategy is as effective as the Paulists want us to believe, I don’t know why they aren’t keeping quiet about it. They’re either stupid, exaggerating for effect, or both. No matter: it’s becoming clearer every day that Republicans can’t even be trusted to run an election, much less the country.
PeakVT
I say they’re fanatics with no common sense, which also explains the whole libertoon worldview. But I heartily encourage their efforts.
Walker
If you read the commrnts on that thread, this is neither new nor specifically Republican. It appears that Kucinich did this for years. It is not enough to have any real effect.
Gin & Tonic
It may not have real effect, but I think he wants to get to the convention with enough delegates to throw sand in the gears.
Some Guy
I cannot find 2012 numbers but 2008 numbers were about 273,000 registered republicans. Also, about 5500 showed up for the 2008 caucuses. So turnout in Maine has been pretty low before.
So it is more like 2% most likely. I know, powerful right? Not even the 27% of the Republicans could be bothered.
cmorenc
Um…didn’t Obama outrace Clinton for the necessary margin of delegates to win the 2008 Dem nomination by being much, much savvier about the rules and mechanics of delegate selection in caucus states? Of course, but one of a great many other distinctions between Obama and Paul was that Obama also actually won a substantial number of non-caucus primaries along the way.
Cat Lady
My theory is Paul wants his ferret wearing son picked as VP. That would make him next in line for 2016.
Amir Khalid
I expect Veritas to come in all wee-weed up over your daring to suggest that someone is in Mitt’s base stealing all his delegatez, while Mitt is distracted by shiny little trinkets like straw-poll wins and topping the minuscule vote counts in state caucuses.
But there is precedent for this on the Democratic side, isn’t there? I seem to recall that Obama’s campaign org worked the caucuses more diligently than Hillary’s did, and built there a crucial part of the delegate count that eventually won him the nomination.
ETA: As cmorenc also notes.
Professor
There is a clip at Atrios about the relevance of Social Security and Medicare to the Independece of the citizenry. Can anybody link to it and spread it through the social network such as Facebook? I cannot do it myself. Thanks.
mistermix ... World Peace
@Walker: Kucinich didn’t have anything like the numbers Paul is racking up in the caucuses. That said, it is probably bullshit because if Paul really had a winning strategy here, he’d keep quiet about it until after Super Tuesday.
Amir Khalid
Off-topic: The comment threads now begin with a ginormous white space under the line at the bottom of the post. That space keeps making me wonder if something — a video, maybe, or a photo or something — is trying to load. Or is the space itself a new design element?
Villago Delenda Est
@Amir Khalid:
Yeah, well Obama’s people also worked more diligently for primary based delegates than Clinton’s sooper genious Mark Penn did, who apparently operates out of the McArglebargle school of mathematics.
It’s called “attention to detail”…something that was pounded into me with a sledgehammer by my tactical officer in ROTC advanced camp.
Villago Delenda Est
@Amir Khalid:
It’s an advertisement. You’re not missing anything.
RoonieRoo
This strategy isn’t new. Its been going on for both sides for many years. Heck Obama supporters followed this plan as trained in my county. I know since I was one of them and an Obama delegate to my county convention to boot.
Its not a secret.
Lojasmo
Yeah, in Minnesota, 13 delegates were chosen last Tuesday, and 24 will be chosen at the county conventions.
Paul is still a dumb-ass, though…for relying on his supporters, who are also dumb-asses. See Hillary Clinton/Mark Penn.
capt
Ron Paul as “king maker” is as kooky as him thinking he would ever shine the seat in the oval office.
The GOP has really taken a dive.
beltane
Instead of focusing on Ron Paul, we should ask ourselves why Mitt Romney’s supporters aren’t committed enough to work the caucuses to their full advantage.
CarolDuhart2
@capt: Really? Right now it looks like Romney won’t be able to get the required number of delegates on the first ballot. What if Ron Paul has about 100 or so delegates who are dedicated to him? What would Romney be willing to give for those delegates and a peaceful convention?
Johannes
The smiler with the knyf…
Mike in NC
VICTORY!
JS
@cmorenc:
In part yes. His team knew every inch of the delegate selection rulebook, and figured out that under the rules in place, they could gain more delegates by winning the Idaho caucuses 80%-20% (Obama 15 delegates, Clinton 3.. +12 Obama) than you could get by winning the Ohio primary 55%-45% (Clinton 74 delegates, Obama 67.. +7 Clinton).
This despite there being about 25,000 Democratic caucus goers in Idaho, and over 2.3 million voters in the Democratic Ohio primary. Right or wrong, agree or disagree, these were the rules, and Obama’s team knew them cold. Meanwhile when the campaign moved to a key ‘firewall’ in TX/OH – chief Clinton campaign strategist Mark Penn was famously (apocryphally?) heard to exclaim “What do you mean Texas has a primary and a caucus???”
But they never made an explicit strategy out of trying to grab more than their fair share of delegates after the election, which is what the Ron Paul camp has been reported talking about this cycle. There’s being savvy about the process, and then there’s cheating the process.
Put in baseball terms, I’d say it’s analogous to the difference between stealing signs and players using steroids. And I also don’t know why this isn’t getting more play in the press. Not that I think there’s any great chance that Ron Paul will ‘secretly’ gain enough delegates at state conventions to clinch the nomination – but no one can be absolutely sure if this strategy will work (or not) until months from now, when the state conventions pick their actual convention delegates.
Amir Khalid
@beltane:
I think Villago Delenda Est has already answered this. It’s inattention to detail, simple as that. Mitt’s campaign org misses things, i.e. that a rival is outmaneuvering them and gaining delegates. It might not be enough to cost Mitt the nomination, but it might still do him needless damage before he gets it.
However much he delegates to his campaign CEO, Mitt is still the ultimate boss of his own campaign org. Consider a presidential candidate’s leadership of his campaign org as a long audition. If Mitt’s people are missing something this important, it tells against Mitt’s fitness for the Oval Office.
Frankensteinbeck
To throw in with what a lot of other people are saying, the message here isn’t that Paul has broken the system. He’s being especially ruthless about gaming the rules, but they’re not new rules and he’s not the first to game them. The message here is that Mitt’s victories are so fragile and his campaign so mediocre that Ron Paul, Professional Also-Ran, may be able to eat his lunch.
Schlemizel
I was involved in Dem politics back in 68 and this is similar to the tactic used by the left to gain control of the party. True believers will stay until the job is done, the dilettantes leave early. The forced birth contingent worked this magic in the GOP about 20 years later.
What scares me about these guys having sway is that they will give the authoritarian assholes a fig leaf to hide behind and draw the young and stupid to vote for the GOP nominee.
Angry Egilsson
This was the Gary Hart strategy v Mondale in the 1984 primary. There was an element of truth, but ultimately it’s a pitiful strategy because you would simply announced wins if you actually had them. The campaigns are looking very similar at this point.
They might get enough to cause a little trouble though…
beltane
@Angry Egilsson: Mitt Romney’s campaign does have similar levels of energy and excitement to Walter Mondale’s. Romney has unlimited amounts of money but he still can’t buy someone who gives half a sh*t about his campaign. Even his troll Veritas is just going through the motions.
Skipjack
I agree that it doesn’t mean he’s going to suddenly pull a majority out of his hat. And it doesn’t mean he’ll catch up with Romney. But the campaigns that have been run haphazardly may find themselves with no delegates, and Paul may end up with the 2nd most.
The reason why he might say something now is that he doesn’t want to be accused of stealing them later. He can point to this and say ‘hey, we told you all’ It’s not like the delegates he’s scooping up should be going unnoticed and it’s not like in the future caucuses there are going to be so many people who protest vote for Santorum or Gingrich who then stick around. Also, exaggerating for effect reminds people that he might be viable in the delegate count. If by March sometime they add these things up and a whole lot of people realize Gingrich and Santorum are out of it but they can still throw a protest vote to Paul, it might count more at a convention.
amk
why does rm seem giddy about rupaul ?
SFAW
Harsh, man.
Not saying you’re wrong, though. I bet a Harold Stassen campaign could have people more excited about the candidate.
Villago Delenda Est
In 2008, you know which Democratic candidate had the “air of inevitability” hovering around?
Hint: It wasn’t Barack Obama.
sloan
I heard a couple of Paul supporters talking about this on NPR last week:
Sounds like flouride-in-the-water tinfoil hat stuff to me. I really wonder where these folks will go once Ron Paul retires. I can’t see them being this passionate about any other wingnut. Does Rand inherit them?
Villago Delenda Est
@sloan:
One aspect of this is getting your supporters into delegate slots for the other candidates. They’re stealth delegates. The idea is, you get your people elected as delegates for the other candidates. They’re pledged on the first ballot to vote for Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, or one of the suspended members of the clown car. If no one is selected on the first ballot, these delegates are freed from their pledges, and, viola you’ve got your Paul delegates in place for the second roll call.
gbear
I was under the impression that delegates needed to stick with the caucus results for the first vote and if no clear cut winner emerged on the first vote, then the delegates were free to vote their personal choice. I’d heard that it was the second (and however more) vote that Paul was gunning for.
The Paul campaign guy in the Maddow clip was pretty giddy about the whole affair. They don’t even feel like they have to be sneaky about it. They know that Mitt’s support is shallow as a puddle and no one is willing to put time into his campaign (other than to troll comment threads).
edit: and there’s my answer right above me. I’m typing too slow this sunday morning…
Jay in Oregon
Is the article title a Transmetropolitan reference?
If so, well done. :)
Emma Anne
I would like to defend both Obama and Clinton, based on my experience in the Colorado caucuses. They both were very savvy about caucuses and had plenty of enthusiastic supporters. Everyone stuck around and the delegates were awarded exactly according to the vote.
But this was unusual. Not because people generally game the caucuses, but because there aren’t usually enough people who want to be delegates. Anyone who wants to go can have a slot, and when they go to the county convention they can vote however they want.
And it practically never matters. By the time of the presidential conventions, everything has been long since decided. It doesn’t matter at all for off year elections, because the convention just decides the order of the candidates on the primary ballot (yeah we have a primary too).
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
@amk:
Is she giddy about Paul, or giddy about the potential Mongolian clusterfuck that Paul’s strategy will cause at the national convention? I think it’s the latter.
Imagine Paul controlling the convention, then tell me it won’t splinter the hell outta the GOP.
Schlemizel
@Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again):
Maybe it would splinter them (we can hope) but my guess is they would allow Paul input on the platform so he gets ‘abolish the IRS’ and “end DoE” – the sort of stuff they know won’t happen and won’t offend the wingnuts. Paul himself gets some ego stroking, maybe input on cabinet slots, maybe the boy gets some cushy assignments. Everyone shakes hands & pretends its all good.
They then trot Paul out during the campaign in hopes of attracting the sort of young and stupid voters Paul attracts. The voters that fall for this sham will then be stunned to learn they got nothing they wanted and a lot of the government control over their private lives they didn’t.
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
@Schlemizel:
Either way, bring on the schadenfreude!
JS
@gbear:
It’s been my understanding that is what the Paul campaign is trying to do in the primary election states. AFAIK, primary voters just vote the candidate, and the actual convention delegates are chosen otherwise. Not sure if those actual delegates are picked by party committeemen, at state conventions, or are people designated by the campaigns to represent their candidate, or a mixture of these methods.
But it’s also my understanding that the ‘first ballot binding’ rule applies only to the national convention itself. The people chosen at caucus sites are free to choose whomever they want at the county GOP conventions, and likewise the county delegates are free to choose anyone to be actual convention delegates at the state party convention.
It’s only those folks, whomever the actual national convention delegates turn out to be, who are bound to vote for a candidate on the first nominating ballot. Admittedly this is way in the weeds, but if Paul gets 30% of the vote at a caucus site, but 50% of the people picked to go to the county party convention from that site… which turns into 65% of the people picked to go to the state party convention… this is how I understand the Ron Paul ‘strategy’ to work in caucus states.
Jay C
And if Veritas The Troll weren’t taking Sunday morning off, he’d probably pop in to tell us that the voters will get said “nothing” and “control”, in spades, in the Dystopian Soc1alist Hell of a second
ObamaObambi term….BethanyAnne
@Schlemizel: Exactly. Paul has stated that even if he doesn’t win, his price might be “audit the Fed” as a plank in the platform.
Kane
And when Paul doesn’t have the delegates that he’s claiming to have and he doesn’t win the nomination, we will surely hear the cries of government conspiracy and cover-up. And isn’t that the underlying point of the Paul campaign?
Winning is defined not by gaining the nomination. Winning is encouraging the public distrust of government by planting the seeds of conspiracy theories about government. Highlight the inefficiencies of government not so that government may be improved, but rather as a reason to oppose government altogether. All the better to make the argument that government needs to be shrunk down to size and drowned in a bathtub so that corporations can rule openly.
feebog
I guess the fact that I posted the TRMS link on two threads yesterday finally attracted some attention. A couple of points:
All of the these caucus states have different rules. In many states there are county conventions who select delegates to a state convention and then the state convention selects the delegates to the national convention. What the Paul campaign is doing is to get the maximum number of delegates to these county and state conventions. Apparently, the selection process for the county conventions is pretty haphazard, and the nexus between the number of votes cast for each candidate and the actual identity of the delegates themselves is very weak.
I doubt that Paul expects to actually win the nomination, but if he does amass several hundred delegates you can count on one thing; they are not going to simply walk away from Paul after the first ballot. They are going to stick with Paul to the bitter end, or until he gets what he wants and releases them. That sets up a very interesting dynamic if no one has amassed the necessary number of delgates by the time they reach the convention.
Of course, when we get further along in the primary process, a number of primary states become winner take all. The first 29 are supposed to be proportional (Florida, are you listening?) and the remaining 21 are (mostly) winner take all. That means the candidate who has the momentum late in the race has the greatest chance of capturing 50% plus of the delegates. That is why Noot is hanging in there, and why Frothy the Gnomeman thinks he has a shot.
Rita R.
So much for democracy. Who knew that when Ron Paul bleats on about liberty, what he really means is gaming the democratic process — essentially cheating. Oh and nepotism too, because I keep hearing that a lot of Paul’s efforts are about smoothing the way and building up future support for his son Atlas, err… Rand, because Paul is old as f*ck and will never be president.
schlmizel
@Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again):
You can say that you are white male and can pass for Christian.
Todd Dugdale
The RNC still has the option to take away half of the delegates for IA, ME, MN, CO, and MO as a penalty for moving their primary dates up. Thus far, the Party has chosen not to because these are all non-binding.
In 2008, six Ron Paul delegates made it all the way to the MN State Convention, where the delegates are “bound”. Pawlenty cut off the microphone when Paul’s delegates were about to cast their votes, and declared all six of their votes to be “abstentions”. It’s that easy.
The Party makes the rules, the Party enforces violations of the rules, and the Party decides who gets to talk and who doesn’t. The unhappiness of any Paul delegate is irrelevant. Don’t like it? Leave the Party.
The more that Paul’s faction tries to build itself into a menace that will not be silenced, the more incentive there is for the Party to just revoke their credentials and show them the door.
More than any other single thing, Paul’s decision to try for the Party nomination again proves that he has poor political judgement. It’s a waste of resources that could have been put to better use in a third-Party effort.
Chris
And a Ron Paul supporter just succeeded in getting himself elected chairman of the Iowa Republican Party. The previous chairman resigned after the caucus vote-counting debacle.
Schlemizel
@Todd Dugdale:
I was a delegate to then MN Dem Convention around 1980. The acting chair was a forced-birther when vote came on the topic (don’t remember the details at the moment). The vote went:
All in favor say Aye
AYE (from a small group)
AllopposedsayNayMotioncarries.
It happens but we were able to recover because this small band of morons didn’t have power.
Todd Dugdale
@Kane: That’s pretty much what happened in 2008, though. Paul was simply frozen out of the Party process. And his supporters are now back to try the same thing again, in hopes that this time it will be different – though nothing fundamental has changed.
If people didn’t ‘lose faith’ after Paul was screwed sideways in 2008, why would they do so if it happens a second time?
Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP ejects Paul from the Party before the RNC. One State Convention incident would be sufficient grounds. Problem solved. Let’s focus on defeating Obama instead of fighting among ourselves, okay?
It would take a decade-long struggle over dozens of States to infiltrate Paul supporters in positions of power in the Party. Look how long the evangelicals have been working at it, and they have little to show for it in concrete terms. With today’s media possibilities, going third-party is much more attractive than infiltrating an established Party.
Todd Dugdale
@Schlemizel: Yes, this happens on both sides.
The DFL has more checks and balances that create a higher barrier to a faction that wants to “take over”. The MN GOP, by contrast, is a brick wall. You get only the power that the Party leadership thinks that you need to serve your purpose.
Some time in 2011, the MN GOP seems to have been taken over by the evangelicals. I think that the real fight at the MN State Convention will be between Romney (establishment Republican) and Santorum (social conservative Republican). But both sides will agree that there’s no room for Paul.
Heliopause
Seriously? Paul’s maximum leverage would be if he showed up at a divided convention with 300 more delegates than anybody thought he had. I don’t know if there’s anything to this story but if there is, awesome, and yes they should keep quiet about it for a few more months.
Chuck Butcher
OR Democrats have a Primary and then delegates are elected at the counties to go to the CD elections. At the CD election candidates are elected to go to the National Convention. These delegates are pledged and you can make what you care to of pledged after the first vote.
We elect people to do things they say they will do. That is delegates and that is Senators and Presidents and… The one real difference between delegates and politicians is that first vote is pre-determined.
Convention delegates tend to be pretty damned determined people, they’re coughing up some real dollars and time to go to a Nat Con. There are only a couple states that are ever exactly “handy” to a National Convention. I’m pretty sure that if I’d had the interest I could’ve gone to the 08 convention – I wasn’t in the least interested in spending that kind of money and time, but it was already won…
(there are always a few people who only show up at the CD level to get to go to the parties and play, and yes, they actually campaign to get to)
Schlemizel
@Todd Dugdale:
I think they took the state GOP in the 90s. The forced-birthers stopped trying to subvert the DFL and went over there.
MrSnrub
I have anecdotal evidence of this from the Colorado caucus. A facebook friend of a friend reported that his precinct voted Santorum, but all of the delegates wound up being Paul supporters.
Interesting.
AA+ Bons
He’s also the patron saint of a lost cause populated by wannabe martyrs.
Every loss makes everyone involved with his campaign feel better, not worse.
You see . . . they were stabbed in the back!
AA+ Bons
If you want to know how this works in their heads, by all means, head down and see your local Paulers.
Ask them how many of them think 9/11 was planned and executed without American or Israeli help.
Then ask what they think about Paul’s delegate count.
Billy Beane
More polical masturbation by none other than mistermix.
Imagining not gonna happen scenarios then drawing conclusions from it.
So let’s imagine that we were on mars and on mars Paul has a big enough majority to become president so now back here on earth if that were to happen we are in trouble. We better stay on top of this….sigh.
The stupid it burns.
jafd
Alright, so you wanna be President. You gotta campaign for it.
Which means you have to find some bright young legalperson in every state capitol, Augusta to Annapolis to Austin, who’s dedicated or ambitious enough to work his/her butt off checking the laws and party rules, making sure you get 2727 valid signatures in each Congressional district, recruiting enough trustworthy prospective convention delegates and checking they can get vacation time scheduled in August, collecting the ESSENTIAL INFORMATION ON CAUCUS PROCEDURE and printing up copies for every precinct leader…
Government. Of the people, by the people. What a ‘politician’ does. What a free country costs.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@CarolDuhart2:
Romney we’re talking about;it’s what wouldn’t he give?
BruinKid
Gotta love one of the Stranger commenters’ take on this: