John Heilemann’s piece, Newt May Be Mad and Mental Enough to Fight On Long After Florida is at the top of Memeorandum today:
And what of Gingrich’s pledge to carry on his crusade all the way to Tampa? That’s takeaway number three. Pledges to continue the fight unabated in the face of harsh and/or humiliating outcomes are staples of presidential campaigns. And they are also patently meaningless. […] But in Gingrich’s case, he might be serious, so much has he come to despise Romney and the Republican Establishment that has brought down on him a twenty-ton shithammer in Florida, and so convinced is he of his own Churchillian greatness and world-historical destiny. The same antic, manic, lunatic bloody-mindedness that has made him such a rotten candidate in the Sunshine State may be enough to keep him the race a good long time.
Waging a protracted battle would likely be an act of futility for Gingrich, but it could turn out to be something much worse for Romney. That is why it’s so important for the latter not just to win on Tuesday but to win big — very big. And that, in turn, is why the matter of margins will be the topic of tomorrow’s column.
If we take a look at the current delegate count, note that Florida is one of the states that gets a 50% penalty because they scheduled their primary too early, and also note that Florida is probably winner take all, the best that Romney can do is to leave that state leading Newt 44-23. No matter how you count it, and that count depends on whether you think the 50% penalty will stick, the winner will need well over 1,100 delegates to win the nomination, and nothing near that number will be awarded until “Super Tuesday”, March 6, where 466 delegates are at stake.
February will be ugly for Newt, with Nevada and Maine (Feb 4), Colorado and Minnesota (Feb 7), Arizona and Michigan (Feb 28) all looking better for Romney, since most those states either have lots of Mormons (Nevada, Colorado and Arizona) or some other tie to Mitt (Michigan has the George Romney connection and Maine is near Massachusetts). But the rule in the Republican Party is proportional delegate allotment unless your state gets special dispensation, so Newt should be able to pick up some of the 187 delegates at stake in those races. There are only four more Republican debates scheduled, and three of them will happen before Super Tuesday, so the notion that Romney will just stop coming to debates ignores the reality of the primary schedule.
Newt would be insane not to stick around until at least Super Tuesday, and Mitt isn’t going to be able to evade his punishment in the debates. Any reporter telling you that it’s only Newt’s “bloody mindedness” keeping him in the race isn’t looking at the delegate math or the debate schedule–they’re just indulging in horserace confabulation.
WyldPirate
@mistermix
That’s what most of the BS is about…profits for broadcasters, jobs for poo-flinging pundits and talking heads and clicks on websites. Having the horserace over early is not in their interest nor is informing people.
MattF
Also, there’s some partisan hackery going on, IMO. The ‘crazy Noot’ meme– while true– tacitly advocates the view that the non-crazy voter should rally to Romney. In fact, the non-crazy voter should rally to Obama, but no one is going to say that.
The Other Bob
Unless it generates a ton of free media, I don’t see Mitt Romney’s connection to Michigan substantial. The only voters who will really remember George Romney are over 60. George left office in 1969 – 43 years ago.
It will hurt him more that he wished GM and Chrysler went under.
Cacti
And Dr. Gingrich, if you’re just “too real” for the GOP establishment, you should do the responsible thing…
by running as a third party candidate.
cmorenc
@WyldPirate:
CNN is the very epitome of doing everything they can to facilitate the horse-race framing of the race “hence the term: “race for the White House”. It’s curious that the GOP/Romney/Gingrich et. al. have seen fit to have such a substantial percentage of the GOP debates so far hosted and moderated by CNN. It’s also curious that Fox has so far hosted so relatively few of them. The horse race Fox would prefer to be able to concentrate much more on is the one between the GOP nominee and Obama, and the sooner the better from their perspective. By contrast, CNN would love for the GOP horse race, er primary contest to remain…interestingly contested all the way through springtime, if possible.
Betty Cracker
Tim Pawlenty was dumb enough to heed the horse-race confabulists after losing a meaningless straw poll.
Litlebritdifrnt
Chris Matthews was on MJ this morning basically saying that Newt will stay in it to make sure that Romney loses the general he hates him that much now. Interesting thought.
WyldPirate
@Litlebritdifrnt:
Newt? Hate? Surely you jest. Newt loves all ‘Muricans.
Amir Khalid
Noot was always supposed to be a fringe candidate. He only became a contender by accident, didn’t he? So basically he’s going to be winging it, until the reality makes itself felt that he and his campaign organization aren’t equipped to take this race to the finish line.
In the meantime, staying in means free advertising for Noot Inc, besides feeding his vanity, and that’s what matters most to him. I reckon he’ll stay in as long as he can tell himself he’s giving Mitt a serious race. Right now, as you say, one cannot yet conclude that Noot is out of the running.
I wouldn’t dare guess whether Noot realizes that he’s still not likely to win the nomination, or that the Republican party might be better off if he didn’t. But as vain as he is, he might well know these things and not care.
DanielX
Mmmm-hmmmm. I keep saying this – that because of Newt’s belief in himself as a Man of Destiny, not to mention that he’s a man with an ego the size of a space shuttle, he will pursue the nomination for as long as there is the faintest hope of attaining it. As far as he is concerned the rules don’t apply to him, and as noted he holds both Mittens and the Republican establishment in contempt* – the former for a variety of reasons, the latter for fielding such a crappy field of candidates. Whatever means he uses are justified by the ends, those being achieving the nomination and increasing the profile of Newton Leroy. If that means leaving his hoofprints all over Mitt Romney’s face and lighting up the RNC like the Hindenburg, Newt won’t lose any sleep and might sleep all the better. Achieving his ends is good, crushing his opposition like a grape in the process…what could be better?
This being the case, if Newt fails to get the nomination but ends up blowing up the Republican Party and Mitt Romney in the process, he doesn’t care. He’s having a good time right now and there is no personal downside for him other than enhancing his reputation as a prick with ears, which is just about impossible to do anyway. If he wins the nomination, well, he proves that his vision of the Republican party is the correct one as far as Republican voters are concerned. He probably can’t win in the general, but he will have made his point. If he doesn’t win, he goes back to the lecture circuit and the other various scams that are the cash cows of Gingrich Incorporated. Also, too, he gets to nod wisely when Obama kicks Mitten’s ass in the general and say, yup, see, I was right all along. Which is Newt all over: often wrong but never uncertain.
The truly entertaining (and meaningful) part of this Republican death march – for me anyway – is watching the candidates paint themselves into a corner. Anyone who can meet the purity tests required of a Republican candidate is just about unelectable in a (fair) general election, since to be nominated a candidate has to come across as both mean and crazy. Reagan’s 11th Commandment is as dead as Reagan, so is the Reagan coalition and so is Reagan’s greatest scam – convincing the American working class (however you define it) that the Republican party had their best interests at heart.
*Actually Newt seems to hold just about everybody in contempt, but that’s an issue for a professional counselor.
Perspecticus
Great perspective, but you are ignoring one key factor: Newt has no money and few prospects to get more. Much of the reason Newt’s fortunes changed back in Florida was the monumental difference in campaign coffers between him and the Mittster. A big loss in Florida will only exacerbate the problem.
Granted, the Tea Party sorts are getting agitated, seem to be lining up behind Newt as a victim of the media and the “establishment” GOP, and are still thoroughly convinced that Newt will decimate Obama in head to head debates, so the fundraising could pick up. But until that happens, and I’ve seen no sign of it, yet, Newt will only be able to rely on free press and stirring up debate drones to build his campaign.
jibeaux
Didn’t Noot get another $5mil from that loony billionaire? And it’s not like he can spend it on Tiffany’s, so he might as well keep going, as far as I can tell.
What amuses me, from the thread below, is the whole endorsement-from-Michael-Reagan -so-there-I-am-the-true-conservative thing. How much more monarchical could these people be?
Amir Khalid
@jibeaux:
Didn’t Michael Reagan’s brother Ron contradict that endorsement?
dmsilev
Besides forcing Romney further and further to the right, Newt is also causing Romney and his allies to spend money like water. TPM had a report yesterday estimating that the Romney campaign + superPACs spent over 15 million dollars on ads in Florida.
Even our pet troll’s UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH has its limits, and I have my doubts that Willard can keep doing that for the next three or four months.
jibeaux
@Amir Khalid: We have not yet heard from Patti Davis, too! Surely she should have at least half a vote.
jibeaux
@jibeaux: Hold the phone, I just found out Michael’s adopted. Ron and Patti are not. THEY WIN!
DanielX
Also, too – putting “reasonable”, “sane” and “Newt” into the same phrase just does not work for me…heh.
Litlebritdifrnt
Someone needs to do a cartoon “Republicans Choice – The Rat or the Reptile”
Zifnab25
I do think it is worth noting that Romney is deeply unpopular within his own party. If Santorum or Paul ever close up shop, a lot of voters could swing Newt’s way by default. Romney’s got a 30-40% glass ceiling. That offers Newt lots of opportunity to poach states, particularly in bright red evangelical states.
I’m honestly not ready to give up on Presidential Candidate Gingrich just yet.
Amir Khalid
Making friends the Noot Gingrich way.
pk
@Amir Khalid:
Michael Reagan is the only son which counts.Regan had a special place in his heart for Michael and often wished the other two had not been born.
Suffern ACE
Welll, since newt promised it to a group of potential voters , it must be true. One thing the newt brand stands for is a boy scout like commitment to the truth. I’m guessing he will be dropping out soon.
amk
My $ 0.02. Noot will partner with the tundra twit (fwiw) in the coming months and raise the hackles of the rethug establishment.
I say, go noot.
Steve
@The Other Bob: The Romney family has remained active in Michigan politics over the years. The name still carries plenty of weight.
Punchy
State’s Rights, Bitchez! Wait….maybe not.
Hypocrisy, the Republican party is thee.
Villago Delenda Est
@jibeaux:
Michael Reagan, without his adopted father’s name, is an utter non-entity. He spent the 80’s trying to cash in on who his dad was. He’s done absolutely nothing on his own that didn’t play on the fact that his dad was Ronald Reagan…a man who didn’t recognize him, the story goes, at his college graduation.
Mike E
Damn it! My state’s primary is in May, and I really want to cast a vote for Newt…Repubs on the Moon, bitches!
The Other Bob
@Steve:
Ronna Romney, a former Romney by marriage, is the last contact the general public had with a Romney on the ballot, (with the exception of Mitt’s last primary race in 2008).
Ronna lost the primary for U.S. Senate in 1994.
I think we politicos tend to think the general public knows these folks, when they really arent’ an everyday name.
jayackroyd
Yeah they really don’t think delegate count matters–it’s like it’s an artifact of being the winning candidate. Winning is gaining the hearts and minds of the Village. This is despite the fact that McGovern and Obama both won by looking at the rules, and how to amass delegates–and then proceeded to do so.
The Other Bob
@Villago Delenda Est:
Micheal Reagan being adopted is irrelevant. You mention it as if he is the lesser son because he came to the family though adoption. (as an infant in fact)
I don’t know if you have kids, but I hope your love and respect for them isn’t dependent on DNA. That would be sad.
Thankfully, this is Balloon-juice, where I am also free to say: Fuck Off.
Nutella
@Steve:
Can you tell us more about that? I had thought that Mitt moved away from Michigan years ago. Are there other Romneys active in Michigan politics?
Steve
@The Other Bob: Scott Romney, Mitt’s brother, was a candidate for Attorney General. Indeed, Ronna Romney pretty much kept her name in order to run for office. It’s a household name.
Chris
@amk:
As long as they keep doing it after Romney wins the nomination. Which normally, I wouldn’t think they would, because Goopers tend to be pretty good at falling in line for the good of the Party. But N00t and Snowbilly’s egos are so massive they might just break that rule.
The Other Bob
@Steve:
I forgot about Scott. Hopefully the rest of Michigan did too.
handsmile
As long as Sheldon and Miriam Adelson remain willing to foot the bill, there is no reason for Newton Leroy to ‘suspend” his primary campaign. Adelson is the Las Vegas casino mogul who has contributed at least $10M to Gingrich’s SuperPAC, “Winning the Future.” It was the media blitz underwritten by that organization that is credited with spurring his South Carolina victory.
As Perspecticus noted above (#11), N. Leroy has no other significant funding source or patron other than the billionaire Adelsons, who thanks to Citizens United, can contribute as much as they wish for as long as they wish.
Last weekend, both the NYT and the Guardian published articles detailing the many years of advocacy and massive contributions on behalf of GOP and Jewish causes by the heretofore obscure Adelson.
While both articles are rich with anecdote, the Guardian story, “Secrets of the billionaire backing Gingrich’s shot at the White House” straightforwardly addresses that Adelson’s support “ushers in a dangerous new world where America’s wealthiest people might feel able to single-handedly sponsor a major candidate’s bid for the White House.” The NYT more circumspect, “The Man Behind Gingrich’s Money” describes his “boldness, if not audacity.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/28/newt-gingrich-sheldon-adelson-billionaire
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/us/politics/the-man-behind-gingrichs-money.html
Since the corporate media will immediately whitewash whatever corner Mittens may have painted himself into during the primary campaign should he receive the nomination, we should cheer the sustained siege of the Nihilist Newton.
amk
@Chris: If they do it after the
nominationcoronation, all the better.eyelessgame
I do want to take a moment to admire the absurdity of pundits discussing whether it’s sane or insane for a guy who is currently leading the national polls by ten points to remain in the race.
I mean, they’re correct, but it’s still absurd.
Mammon.
debit
@Amir Khalid: I just read that article a few minutes ago. Oh for the days of pastries and dry rub BBQ!
JGabriel
Mistermix @ Top:
FYI/Correction: Surprisingly, Colorado doesn’t actually have a lot of Mormons — only about 2% of the population.
There are a lot of Evangelicals, though: 23%. And a lot of Catholics at 19%. That could make CO competitive territory for Gingrich or Santorum.
.
Ben Cisco
@cmorenc:
That’s TeaNN, and not as curious as you might think.
Anonymous At Work
Michigan is ripe territory for Newt to steal a win because Romney wanted to let GM and Chrysler go under. Since Newt is running a campaign called Rightwing-Nutjobs-for-Obama (2012), I’d expect Newt to come out hard and swinging about letting the auto industry tumble.
Mark S.
God this is stupid. Newt’s going to lose Florida but he’s doing fine in national polls.
rodii
George Romney’s Lt. Gov., Bill Milliken, who became governor when Romney left for Washington, is still quite warmly remembered here, as is Romney’s predecessor Soapy Williams, but Romney himself doesn’t really evoke good feelings. I think he was harmed by his disastrous Presidential campaign, and the “brand” was further tarnished by Ronna Romney, who was widely disliked and was viewed as running on the Romney name. The Michigan GOP has moved so far into loony, toxic wingnut territory that, if there’s anyone left who feels good about Romney, they’re probably a Democrat anyway.
Kane
Just skimming through the TPM PollTracker, I don’t see Romney with an overwhelming lead in any of the states that are mentioned. Some of the states are within the margin of error, and Arizona is listed as a draw.
DFH no.6
@Mike E:
AZ’s primary is February 28th. My wife, my son, and I all changed our registration to Republican just so we could vote for Newt.
Won’t matter — too many Mormons in AZ (they will vote in lockstep for Romney).
Still, feels good to poke a small finger in their eye, and I expect Newt will still be in it, at least till after Super Tuesday (and, I hope, long after).
Go Newt!
Kane
Romney is portrayed as the candidate in it to win it, while Gingrich is portrayed as being on a crusade to destroy Romney.
It goes back to the narrative of inevitability pushed by Team Romney and the GOP establishment to convince republican voters that they should accept Romney’s candidacy, fall in line, and not prolong the primary.
The inevitability argument is a useful tool intended to protect Romney of any criticism from his GOP rivals; criticize Romney, and you’re essentially emboldening the enemy and placing the inevitable nominee in danger of losing the general election.
bob h
Americans have a certain sympathy for the rascally rogue (see George W.), and I think Romney’s tactics are going to engender a significant sympathy reaction in Newt’s behalf. I certainly feel for him.
DFH no.6
@handsmile:
This, absolutely. As guaranteed as the sun rising in the east tomorrow.
In fact, they’ll do much more for Romney than just whitewash his fascist primary bullshit.
They’ll carry his water for him in the general; every drop. He’ll be portrayed as the manly, broad-shouldered, savvy businessman savior our country so desperately needs in these trying economic times.
We can all recognize what Willard is (and isn’t) but he’s the media’s near-perfect, telegenic, Chamber of Commerce candidate.
Except for the debates with Obama, that’s the Romney the country will be shown on their TVs.
Count on it.
General Stuck
Absolutely, Run NOOT Run
And I think as liberals and dem supporters, we should show some contrary love to NOOT. For doing yeoman’s work in softening up the green eyed chameleon for easier digestion when he goes up against Obama in the GE. NOOT is our loyal Spider with hemotoxic venom.
Now isn’t this precious. Mitt stuck his hand in the snapping turtle mouth part, and nature takes its course. Tally Ho!
Nazgul35
Newt might win Michigan.
Michigan has an open primary system. If you remember in 2000, McCain won Michigan because of all the Democrats who crossed over and voted in the Republican primary.
This time around there is no competition in the Dem primary, a juicy opportunity to keep the Rep clown show going…
I think Newt is COUNTING on Michigan. Imagine the story line: Newt beats Mitt in Michigan!!!!
He could get a lot of play from that.
RalfW
Maybe. This poll is now 5 days old, but in Minnesota Newt was leading in the most recent GOP primary poll.
Now, Newt comes in third in the four “possible” Obama-GOP matchups, because our general election population isn’t as insane as the GOP. But the people who’ve been sending La Bachmann to D.C. may just vote Newt in the primary.
I do think the FL vote may shift that some here. But it’s not a given that the MN repub base is for Mittens.
A Conservative Teacher
Nice post… not used to getting this sort of analysis on this site- well done!
5x5
@pk: Absolutely. From a Chicago Tribune story:
Eli Rabett
Newt can and will be bought
ns
Nice post, but Florida is supposed to have 100 delegates and is being penalized to only having 50, not 50 being penalized to 25. That, and the upcoming calendar being favorable to Romney, will create “momentum” for a full month, assuming that Romney wins tomorrow. Also, the GOP has superdelegates, virtually none of whom will back Gingrich. There still aren’t that many delegates at stake until March, but Gingrich needs to make inroads in putative Romney strongholds.
The CA primary is in June and is closed to Republicans. Now is the time organize a massive re-registration campaign so Democrats can get in and put Newt over the top! I signed up for a GOP ballot last year so I could vote against a few Republicans in their primary and I won’t be switching back. All the other primary votes will be in a blanket format, so there is no reason to switch back to I or D; only the Presidential race is closed to party members. Which is to say, independents and Democrats that choose to register GOP in time for the June primary will also be able to vote in the rest of the primary ballot without being limited to Republicans.