Newt cooling off, it seems:
One day before the final GOP presidential debate in Florida, it’s all tied up between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, according to a new survey.
A CNN/Time/ORC International Poll also indicates that while Gingrich surged following his 12-point victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, his momentum appears to be quickly cooling off.
While the idea of Gingrich candidacy both frightens and repulses me, the longer this plays out the better it is for Democrats.
cathyx
It’s hard to decide between bad and horrible. Which one should I pick?
Brachiator
Momentum. Cooling off. Methinks this fails the Flesch-Kincaid Mixed Metaphor Test.
smintheus
Have to hope that Santorum has enough traction to stay in. His level of stupid is a gift.
Mark S.
Newt’s got another debate to get it going.
The Moar You Know
Newt stops talking about Bain, Wall Street and vulture capitalism (as instructed/threatened) and his numbers go right back in the dumper. What a shock.
David Koch
I wouldn’t trust CNN. Their South Carolina poll last Wednesday had Mittens winning 33 to 23.
Thymezone
We Democrats welcome the Republicans’ new overlords.
Our best salesmen on the campaign trail? Them.
danimal
The GOP hive-mind (do they have individual brains at this point?) seems to go back and forth from “Let’s go down fighting with Newt” to “Let’s keep it close with Mitt.” They may have a few more hot and heavy dates with Newt, and even an oddball fling with Paul or Santorum, but I still the congressional GOP will finally step in and stop this foolishness before long.
It hasn’t changed. GOP 2012: Dated ’em all, married Mitt.
But I soooooo hope I’m wrong and we wind up with Newt as the nominee. He could kill off the GOP for a few electoral cycles; long enough to actually fix some of the problems facing our country.
General Stuck
Newt needs and audience to bait in the next debate. He needs that to channel the elemental wingnuttery that hits on the gooper erogenous zones, usually centered around resentment of media, liberals, and teh “establishment”. Every psychopath has one thing they do really well. This is Newt’s gift to America.
He is dead in the water without that, and it has almost exclusively fueled his rise against the odds, being the reality that he is an unethical, self absorbed, hateful all around piece of shit, even to most republicans. Give him that fix, and away we go.
MattF
Yeah, well, the swelling goes down eventually– ‘specially at his age.
Mike E
I can’t wait to vote for that doughy pantload of Newtness in the NC primary, should he last that long, that is… we have a constituional amendment to bar gay marriage on the ballot as well. It’s clobberin’ time!
Villago Delenda Est
As Martin astutely pointed out a couple of threads below, if the debates are conducted with raucous crowds, Noot wins. If the crowds are silenced, it’s probably most to OvenMitt’s advantage, Rih and the gnome being minor players in this thing.
The last debate was quiet. Therefore, OvenMitt scores, Noot snores. Next debate? Who knows? Also, the absentee ballots are already pouring in to election offices, so a lot of voters have committed one way or the other already.
feebog
I still think it will be the Romneytron 3000. Noot may still win Florida, but the next few states favor Romney (Nevada caucus next). A few Romney wins in caucus states will reset the MSM narrative and Noot has no arrows left in the quiver.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
Since I have accepted the fact that a Republican presidency is evil, whoever it is is immaterial. I also think that none of them have a chance.
John O
@General Stuck:
Well put, and from what I saw somewhere, the Newtster agrees…hasn’t he demanded audiences be unleashed in debates, which for the record I agree with him about?
I like to get a feel for the crowd’s collective wingnut level.
Special Patrol Group
Cayman Islands!
Swiss Bank Account!
Low taxes for doing nothing!
Food Stamp President!
Out of touch Taxachusetts!
Utah (if you know what I mean)!
Newt’s got plenny o’ ammo left.
Violet
CNN is hosting the next debate, right? Hopefully they’ll allow audience participation. So much more fun that way.
I read that a lot of the electorate has already voted in Florida in early voting, which started even before the SC result. Don’t remember where I read it, but if it’s accurate then Newtmentum might not yet have hit when those voters voted.
Hal
Listening to Mitt on NPR yesterday before the SOTU in which he said the closed plant he was in would have reopened already under another President.
His statement struck me as both incredibly weak, he went from “Obama made the economy worse!” to “Gee, things could be even better if I were President!” and further illustrated how Mitt is the King of unquantifiable statements. If someone else was President things would be better? How? What would the unemployment rate be? How exactly would that plant have reopened under your, ahem, leadership?
Your not going to win if you’re motto is anything you can do, I can do better.
David Koch
O.T.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz breaks down and cries on the House floor, as she says goodbye to Gabby Giffords.
http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/25/10234627-a-3-hanky-best-noon-thing
dmsilev
@Violet: Will John King be hosting again? Should be amusing to see how he reacts to Newt given how thoroughly Newt pantsed him last time round.
danimal
@feebog: NV caucus may be a surprise. There are a lot of Paul-grade wingnuts outside of Vegas to counter the Mormon mafia. And if we know anything, we know that Paulbots will show up in caucuses.
Also, I can haz edit funkshun nao?
Violet
Yep, the next debate is tomorrow night (so soon!) on CNN. And after that it’s almost a month (Feb. 22nd) before the next debate in Arizona. The GOPers clearly didn’t think this contest would go past Florida since they left a month in between debates. I wonder if any of the candidates will ask for debates? Newt?
scav
Why single out any poll at this point? I rather think the variance has gone sky high as many people haven’t really made up their minds, aren’t finding the menu palatable in any case and are being blasted by annoying ads+media 24/7. We must be approaching the Heisenberg uncertainty polling principle when we attempt to measure the preferences of uncommitted voters many of whom ought to be committed (and most of whom are probably annoyed and volatile).
dmsilev
But at the same time, Romney is a horrible, horrible candidate who sticks his foot in his mouth so often that he flosses with shoelaces:
Mitt claims he’s taxed at 50 percent
Quoth the Rombot:
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@danimal:
This. People forget that the only reason we have Medicare/Medicaid and the Voting Rights Act is…Barry Goldwater. Without his 1964 candidacy, it’s doubtful LBJ would have had the House and Senate majorities he clearly needed to pass that legislation.
I don’t think Noot is Goldwater 1964 material (that title would have gone to La Bachmann or to a lesse extent the Frothy Mixture or Paul). However, Noot does move further along to the Goldwater end of the spectrum than does Mittens.
Dem turnout to make sure we don’t ever see a President Gingrich, as mentioned here in the comments over the last week, will be massive. And don’t discount something Huckabee said recently about conservative, Republican women *not* *ever* voting for Noot. Period.
We need to fix shit and it’s clear that Obama needs a Speaker Pelosi not only to pass his stuff but to help drag him a wee bit to the left. Thus, I welcome a Noot candidacy since the only way Obama won’t be neutered for another 4 years is if he has a working majority in both houses.
Steve
Romney polls significantly better than Gingrich among Latinos. Since Gingrich is (ever so slightly) to the left of Romney on immigration in the present campaign, I’m not sure I have an explanation for this, except perhaps that Romney has such a long history of creating jobs for Latinos.
Suffern ACE
@Steve: It’s the moderation thing. Newt is a paleoconservative futurist and even conservative Latinos don’t like the idea of a future where angry white guys yell at them for “destroying civilization as we know it.”
Villago Delenda Est
@dmsilev:
So, Mitt gets $20 million a year in interest/deferred comp/cap gains whatever, none of it from actual work as in a salary for services rendered during the taxable year, and pays $4 million in taxes.
And he claims he’s taxed at 45-50%?
There’s a disconnect here in the numbers that a 6th grader would have no problem identifying.
Chris
@dmsilev: As Paul “The Krug” Krugman points out, this is a dangerous argument for Republicans. They want to claim that corporate taxes are paid by consumers. But if corporate taxes are paid by consumers, then they’re not paid by shareholders and CEOs. If they are paid by the Romneys of the world, then they’re not paid by consumers after all.
Admittedly, this is a tough sell, since you have to point to two different statements and ask which one is the lie, rather than just yelling “birth certificate” or whatever….
Culture of Truth
If he is cooling off, that should help Mitt, because he’s got the money and organization. Then again, Newt has Adelson’s wife’s money.
But really, how does Newt do in New York, California, Oregon, Maine, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Connecticut, etc etc…. they hold primaries there too.
Violet
Just had to run a quick errand and heard a few minutes of Hannity’s show. He was talking to some Newt organizer from FL who said they had 6,000 people turn out for a Newt rally in some park. The guy said he didn’t turn out the people, they just showed up. Then they both started talking about Newt’s “long ties in the Cuban community in Florida.” Anyone know what that was about?
I got the impression from the way Hannity was fluffing Newt that he’s now backing Newt. Are the wingnut talkers supporting Newt, then?
Comrade Colette Collaboratrice
@danimal: @comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
I love me some Nootmentum and I’m really enjoying the present primary failparade, but sadly, I don’t think he could kill off a high enough percentage of the GOP to elect the supermajority the Democrats would need in the Senate to get anything done. They’d need, what, +7 seats? Not gonna happen even if Newt explodes and leaves huge slimy globs of hypocrisy and hate oozing down the walls of every voting booth in America.
Culture of Truth
“By the end of my second term we will have the first permanent base on the moon and it will be American,” he said. According to Newt, the base would be used for “science, tourism, and manufacturing” and create a “robust industry” modeled on the airline business in the 20th century.
Chris
@cathyx:
It is, to me, a pretty big dilemma.
One the one hand, whoever wins has a chance, however small you think it may be, of being our next president (especially if Europe tanks) – and Romney does seem to me to be marginally, marginally, marginally more sane and better than Gingrich at this whole governing thing. So there’s that.
On the other hand, no one is as badly in need as Mitt Romney of being slapped in the face with the fact that things can’t always be the way you want them to be, no matter how much money and status you were born into. Losing two elections in a row, after all the money he poured into them, would do that.
In a nutshell, the intellectual side of me wants Romney to win, the schadenfreudy side of me wants Gingrich. And both sides are thrilled to see Republicans tearing each other apart like hungry sharks.
Benjamin Franklin
What’s the odds Romney prevails and his fig-leaf to TPers is Veep Gingkorich?
Chris
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
It’s true, but it’s also true that a lot of things specific to 1964 that helped Goldwater lose.
For one thing, the Kennedy assassination gave sympathy brownie points to LBJ, as many people point out. For another, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the almost-nuclear-war that resulted was still fresh in people’s memories, which made Goldwater’s belligerent anti-communism sound reckless and dangerous and not (as it would have in previous election cycles) patriotic and awesome. The Republican Party was much more divided back then, with a liberal wing that’s been dead for two decade but was still very powerful at the time – while on the other hand, Republican inroads into conservative Democratic groups were only beginning to make a mark. The strategy of running on social and cultural fears and avoiding the issues was still in its infancy back then – wasn’t until Nixon that they learned to use it fully. The liberal consensus was still much more widely accepted, and the Democratic Coalition much more powerful.
None of these things would apply to a Newt Gingrich campaign in 2012. Of course, Gingrich would also face problems Goldwater didn’t – a much more racially diverse and socially liberal population, for one, and that’s not the only obstacle by far. But all the caveats I just cited are still worth thinking about IMO. 1964 was an election in which the stars aligned badly for the Republicans in every possible way – it was more than just nominating an extreme candidate.
Sebastian Dangerfield
@cathyx:
–Robert Heinlein
Brachiator
@Violet:
Wait. There’s another debate? Why?
@Villago Delenda Est:
Actually, Mitt had $593,996 in self employment income in 2010, from speaking fees.
Or as he calls it, pocket change.
@Benjamin Franklin:
Not a chance.
Too much animosity, and Newt is old cheese. Romney will go for someone younger, more charismatic, if he wins the nomination.
Benjamin Franklin
@Brachiator
Not a chance
Too much animosity, and Newt is old cheese. Romney will go for someone younger, more charismatic, if he wins the nomination.
Don’t be so cocky. Bush was pretty successful, and created shit-loads of animosity when he tagged Reagan’s fiscal promises “VooDoo Economics”
beltane
@danimal: We can’t forget that Nevada Republicans chose Sharron Angle as their Senate candidate.
Brachiator
@Benjamin Franklin: RE: Too much animosity, and Newt is old cheese. Romney will go for someone younger, more charismatic, if he wins the nomination.
Speculation is inherently cocky.
The sparring between Newt and Mitt has become nastier than the “VooDoo Economics” challenge. And I don’t see that Mitt has any particular interest in keeping Newt alive politically. We saw Obama brush off attempts to push Hillary as his Veep choice.
Bottom line is we need to see more primaries to see whether Newt is even posing a significant challenge to Mitt.
All that said, I think the GOP establishment would prefer someone younger and fresher, who could potentially appeal to a new generation.
Linda Featheringill
@Thymezone:
True. I’ve run across quite a bit of anecdotal evidence that R-leaning Independents are earnestly looking at Obama.
Yea, Mitt! Hooray, Newt!
ETA:
I edited!
Mobile Grumpy Code Monkey
At this point, it really doesn’t matter which of these assholes is the nominee. That One is going to win, even if it’s a squeaker.
What matters is Congress. We need to get voters in a non-trivial number of districts to toss a bunch of teabagging assholes out into the street. Four more years isn’t going to count for much if the next Congress is even more useless than the current one.
Judas Escargot
@Benjamin Franklin:
He could pick Herman Cain or Michelle Bachmann and please the TPers even more.
Benjamin Franklin
@Judas Escargot:
I fear they are only Cabinet quality nominees.
WereBear
Exactly. Yet he squeals like a thwarted toddler over giving up that amount in taxes so a lot of old ladies won’t freeze to death over the winter.
JWL
There’s not a shred of substantive difference between Gingrich, Romney, or Santorum. And literally every republican wretch in congress is made of the same stuff. They’re all the same breed of cat, and the cats are rabid.
They are the same people that manufactured and unleashed the 2003 Iraq War.
“What a wicked web we weave…”.
cckids
@beltane:
Yeah, and in the 2008 caucus, if I remember rightly, they changed rules in mid-stream to eliminate the chance of Paul winning. I don’t know the details, but the Paulites here still steam & piss about it. (rightly so, but oy, they are tiresome people).
Paul in KY
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage: I think that if Newt got to the point where he was definitely going to be the nominee, he’ll have an ‘accident’ of some type.
The real powers of the GOP know Newt the Nominee is an epic disaster.
Paul in KY
@Benjamin Franklin: If you go with the ‘attack dog’ veep, he’d be a logical choice.