The Romney PACs bought up scads of TV time here in Florida during the playoff games yesterday to let GOP primary voters know what a scuzzbucket Gingrich is. They had an interesting spin: that the president is behind the Gingrich surge and that Newt is pals with Nancy Pelosi, Al Gore and Freddie Mac.
Will it work? I have no idea. A year ago, I would have said Gingrich had a lock on it since it’s a closed primary and the state’s GOP voters were dumb and crazy enough to nominate and elect obvious crook Rick Scott on a “reform” ticket. But with Scott’s approval ratings now in chlamydia territory, maybe they’ve learned their lesson? Hahahaha, of course not! Anyway, here’s an electoral map:
I’m thinking Gingrich will take the “MIGHT AS WELL BE ALABAMA” territory. It looks big, but much of it is sparsely populated. Romney will likely take “WINTER HOME OF THE 1%” territory, because the folks there identify with the paltry $375K speaking fees and believe a 15% tax rate on hardworking investments is just a horrific burden on productive, hardworking Americans, which should be eliminated entirely (along with the death tax).*
The “PURPLE RAIN” territory is up for grabs. It comprises Midwestern and Northeastern retirees (Villages of the Darned) who seem susceptible to Romney’s comforting Daddy Warbucks mien, but that is balanced by hardcore Teahadists who might break for Gingrich and working folks who think all the choices suck. I’m giving a slight edge to Romney here.
As for the “FUCK FIDEL” territory, if I were an advisor to Gingrich or Romney, I’d tell them to focus their efforts in Miami Dade, making the rounds of Cuban exile-oriented talk radio shows to blast the frail, retired octogenarian Fidel Castro and suck up to Marco Rubio. My feeling is that’s their best bet to move the needle here.
* Fixed per commenter Gene108, who is dead right…
[X-POSTED at Rumproast]
Lojasmo
Love your map. Funny stuff.
Lojasmo
Oh, since FYWP won’t let me edit, I prognosticate gNoot wins Florida by seven.
EconWatcher
Great! No one has taken this blog by storm the way Betty Cracker has since, well, since Sarah Proud and Tall.
Josie
Thank you, Betty C. This is the first clear explanation of Florida voting patterns I have seen. Since Newt speaks (really bad) Spanish, it might give him an edge.
R Johnston
Since it’s come to light that Rubio built his political career by flat-out lying about being the child of Cuban exiles, is it really still going to pay off in the Cuban exile community to suck up to Rubio?
Egg Berry
Did you draw that map, Mrs. Cracker? Because it’s awesome!
The Other Bob
You forgot the Keys. How would you label those?
Scott
Love the map. It is also true. My Northeast Republican parents moved to NW Florida in 1980. They practically became Democrats because Republicans there are the descendents of the American Independent Party (George Wallace. And it hasn’t changed in 30 years!
gene108
Fixed that for you.
Linda Featheringill
I do like the map!
There is actually someone in the Purple Rain territory that I know. We worked together and got into the habit of not talking about politics or religion, so I’m not sure about her party affiliation. I do know that she voted for Obama and she hates war. At any rate, she’ll probably be inundated with advertising for the next few days. Maybe I should send her condolences.
Elizabelle
Betty: love your map and your writing. Glad you are at Balloon Juice.
MattF
Ah, Florida. Land where the Doom-O-Meter redlines… It’s the heat, and the crazy, and the, um, ‘volatile mix of ethnic groups.’ Good times.
Emma
I don’t know about the whole Cuban thing. Yes, our elders are still voting Republican, but the younger ones may not be cleaving as closely to the party as it would want.
PaulW
Just to let you know, from a long-time Florida resident, that the Orlando area (aka Mickeytown) is surprisingly well-stocked with Christianists. The question is, are they willing to forgive Newt’s open hypocrisy more than voting for a Mormon? Santorum could work a lot of magic in that area…
And as for the Keys, Lord knows how the Conch Republic will vote, if they are even Republican down there…
Ah, yes, Florida, where all the nuts roll downhill.
dmsilev
There was a poll out this morning showing Newt up 9 points over Mitt in Florida. With only a week to go (and early voting already underway), the MittBot is going to have to go absolutely nuclear on Newt.
Should be fun to watch.
Egg Berry
@PaulW:
If they are like the christianists in SC, the answer is yes.
Wee Bey
Newt will win in FuckYouFidel.
PaulW
Oh, one other thing: the Panhandle (Pensacola to Tall Hassle) is mostly Alabama. The rest of North Florida (north of I-4) with the exception of Gainesville mimics Georgia. There is a distinction there…
EconWatcher
@PaulW:
What’s the distinction?
jayboat
Hilarious map, and right on the money.
Speaking of money… I just saw on the local newsrag website that Gnoot is coming to Naples tomorrow for a bit of money grubbing. This town is a regular stop on the grifter circuit- every few weeks one of the usual suspects will slither in with their hand outstretched to feed from the trough- Rove, Palin, Beck, etc. The usual salt lick is the Ritz-Carlton, which happens to be about 8 blocks from my house…
Every time I hear about another Special Appearance by one of The Chosen I get distracted by thoughts of pie. As in, which flavor, and wishing the temperature down here was a bit cooler so I wouldn’t look so out of place wearing a long overcoat.
8-]
RSA
Screw CNN’s computer visualizations–that map is the best I’ve seen.
Hillary Rettig
moar maps pleez
GVG
Florida has a fair number of Morman’s. I’m not sure how many, nor if there are enough to influence the elections as they are generally rather low profile. The largest ranch in Florida (beef) is mormon owned I’m told. Most people outside the state are unaware we (Florida) raise a lot of beef. In fact most people are unaware of how much this state is still very profitably agricultural.
deep
I would think the Cubans (the elder generation most likely) would go for the one who is the most anti-communist, which I’m guessing is Romney since he’s billing himself as the friend of capitalists (even though he is NOT a capitalist; a financier).
Lojasmo
@PaulW:
Doesn’t really matter for this exercise. Noot will take both Georgia and Alabama.
John Weiss
I think that the problems between the Florida expats and the Cubans could solved spankingly; simply annex Cuba. Give’em a nice deal and let the fishermen in. Bird on the ground (if they’re not too subborn to pick it up).
Cure stubbornness? Rum and lots of good pot. I believe that there’s plenty of both there.
Don’t worry, be happy.
O
John S.
@BettyCracker:
That map is pretty good, but you made one major mistake. Broward county happens to be one of the most solidly Democratic areas in the state, so you may want to consider coloring it in as “Purple Rain” at the very least.
Schlemizel
@John Weiss:
I have a good friend from my time in FLA that is a Cuban exile. He mentioned to me once while discussing the possibility of normalizing relations with Cuba something that really changed my thinking.
He pointed out that the Cubans in Miami are all light skinned (he himself was ‘light tan’) and the ones left behind are all mostly dark. It is his opinion if those guys try to go back there & try to take back their plantations there will be bloody race riots.
In the long run its probably a good thing if Cuba remains separate until those old timers die out.
beltane
The Republican segment of Purple Rain territory contains the Villages, aka Teabag Central. This strange colony of angry old white people seems like it would go heavily for Gingrich, if only because he is every bit as mean as they are. Remember, Florida is a closed primary, which means that your semi-sane relatives and acquaintances will not be voting in it.
Schlemizel
@GVG:
Yeah, I used to drive by those ranches in ‘Purple Rain’ territory. I was very surprised when I found out they were all Mormon & some of the largest cattle spreads in the nation (always assumed they would be in TX or OK).
And I would argue that the Northern part of the the East Coats ‘Winter Home Of The 1%’ is a lot more winter home of the 99%. A lot of mobile home parks & very cheap shacks for the snow birds around there.
rikryah
the entire map is hilarious, but MIGHT AS WELL BE ALABAMA cracks me up to no end.
joshers
You also missed Leon County (i.e., Tallahassee), which leans pretty strongly Democratic. Obama took over 60% of the vote.
Betty Cracker
@John S.: You’re right, John, but I was only intending to map out the Republican electorate. Still, I’m sure I’m off by a lot, which is what I get for making sweeping generalizations.
baldheadeddork
Pretty good calls, but I’d give the edge in Purple Rain to Gingrich. The west coast from St Pete to south of Ft. Myers has been hit especially hard by the real estate shell game and Mitt’s “we need to let the real estate market find bottom” isn’t going to go over well. Orlando=Jesustan, and I’d give the edge to the serial adulterer over the grandson of a polygamist.
gogol's wife
It would be great to have a map like that for each of the “battleground states” or whatever they call the states that actually elect the president, every week in preparing for the election.
PaulW
@EconWatcher:
How they pronounce “y’all”.
/rimshot
Scott
@beltane: The Villages are full of the “I got mine, screw everybody else” federal government dependent old people.
Chris
@Egg Berry:
You beat me to it. As far as they’re concerned, being a Mormon is a far greater sin than cheating on your wife or virtually any other action you can imagine.
baldheadeddork
(And to everyone pointing out the Democratic regions of Florida, I believe she’s only talking about the vote for the Republican primary, which is closed to independents and cross-over D’s.)
beltane
@Scott: I’ve also read that The Villages has the highest rates of STD infection in Florida due to all the old men with government subsidized Viagra and a whole lot of free time on their hands. This seems like it would be Gingrich’s natural constituency.
Svensker
@PaulW:
My Christianist brother, who worked hard to get Newt thrown out as Speaker back in the 90s, has now thrown everything in for Newt. And he’s all mad at me for talking about Newt’s serial marriages because Bill Clinton got blow jobs, or something. It’s Newtie all the way and it’s freaking me out.
beltane
Dang. I used one of the forbidden words in #40. I’d just like to continue my thoughts about The Villages, Florida’s STD capital. The dirty old men who live there like to teabag in more ways than one.
I think Florida goes to Gingrich.
Samara Morgan
excellent post.
IFF we got ABL back then BJ could be a decent liberal blog again.
thm
OK, I’m feeling sort of stupid right now, but can someone explain what ‘Purple Rain’ is supposed to refer to in this context? It appears as if the two prominent appearances of that phrase in popular culture are both somewhat ambiguous in meaning themselves. Does purple here refer to an electorate that is neither red nor blue (or both red and blue) but could vote either way?
4tehlulz
@thm: Disney
4tehlulz
@4tehlulz: Also, Scientologists.
Villago Delenda Est
That’s the thing.
They don’t learn. In fact, they petulantly REFUSE to learn.
This is one of the main reasons I hold them in such unbridled contempt.
Emma
@Schlemizel: That’s an interesting view, to say the least. How long ago was that discussion?
Anecdote is not data, but about half my family is still in Cuba. Of those that came to the States, we didn’t have much, mostly a single family home. All of those were taken over by people of the light-skinned persuasion, some by members of our own family. The oldest of us here in the States is 82 and he’s the only one who still talks about “getting his property back.”
Could there be issues? I think so, yes. But it’s not going to be racial. It’s going to be a hell of a lot more complex and rancorous than that.
Betty Cracker
@thm: Bingo. Also, it rains a lot in the summer.
flukebucket
It can’t be said enough. That map kicks ass! Thank you!
Scott P.
But Florida has no hills, so that means….
PaulW
@Scott P.:
The “nuts” referred to are the crazy people up North who roll down the map to Florida and breed the crazy to new levels of crazy.
Betty Cracker
@Emma: That’s definitely what I’ve seen in my family too. I’m not Cuban, but I have Cuban-American relatives by marriage, and the younger ones couldn’t give a crap less about Castro.
John S.
@Betty Cracker:
You’re sweeping generalization is pretty spot-on, and I think this map is hilarious (even if somewhat depressing). Don’t mind me, I’m just being a bit of a pedantic South Floridian this morning.
;-)
acallidryas
As an (almost) lifelong Floridian, I must say, this map is perfection. Although I’m from Lee County (SW FL) and we still have a strong segment of “might as well be Alabama” that grumbles about the “winter home of the 1%” .
And I know I shouldn’t be surprised, but I still cannot believe that Rick Scott got elected….
Mnemosyne
@Schlemizel:
@Emma:
I’m half-remembering the details, but I remember there being two adults who survived along with Elian Gonzalez and the woman apparently freaked out her Cuban-American relatives by arriving at their house with her boyfriend, who was black. Since she was raised in Cuba, it was no big deal to her, but her relatives were horrified.
So I think any “race war” would be on the part of the attempted returnees.
Nemesis
Expecting gop establishment types to go full ratfuck on Flawduh-flipping the state for Mittbot.
Betty Cracker
@acallidryas: I still wake every morning thinking Rick Scott was some pizza indigestion-induced nightmare. Alas…
Paul in KY
@John S.: I think she’s just doing this for repub voters. There are little hippy enclaves along the panhandle, but she didn’t mention them.
FlipYrWhig
Hey, remember how Charlie Crist used to be the king of Florida? What happened to that guy?
Nylund
I have a lot of friends from the Cuban population in the Miami area. While it’s true their parents and grand-parents are still reliably GOP and still blame JFK/Democrats for a lot of things, their kids, the ones I know aren’t nearly so Republican. Then again, those kids left Miami, so they don’t even vote there anymore.
All in all, as time goes on, I think you might see the GOP lose support in this demographic / geographic area.
jonas
Florida? But that’s America’s wang!
Emma
@Mnemosyne: So? There are bigots in every nationality. Surprise.
I know it pleases a certain subset of American liberals to paint all Cuban-Americans as some sort of unredeemable ultra-conservative dinosaurs. It’s part of the narrative by now and one of the reasons why I don’t usually bother entering into these discussions. Facts be damned.
Cuban-Americans intermarry all the time. It’s a rare family that doesn’t have members of different nationality/race. The older generation has made peace with it, for the most part, and with some exceptions. It’s the same thing that is happening everywhere in the United States in every ethnic immigrant community.
There isn’t going to be a racial war in Cuba. There’s going to be a painful and sometimes rancorous realignment. However, along the same lines that very few Russians ran back to the Motherland once Communism fell, there are going to be a large percentage of younger Cubans, born in the US (and some not, witness me), who are going to want to visit but are not going to pull up stakes and return. There ain’t going to be an Exodus.
Mike in NC
He’s semi-retired now, but Dave Barry used to be the go-to guy on all topics Floridian.
wrb
Florida is an extremely tough call because while it has a healthy Krispy Kreme culture it also has beach culture. The Krispy Kreme community is bound to find Romney’s abnormal body repellent but the beach people spend their time parading about nearly naked in bodies nearly as emaciated as Willard’s. They develop the habit and skill of visualizing people without clothes. The image of Newts glistening white flesh mounding away from his speedo might have an off-putting effect. His generous and ample sort of body is best when well-draped.
Lol
Newt has been doing a lot of outreach to Cubans for several months already. It’s probably the best/only organizational strength he has right now and could what wins the state for him.
John S.
@Paul in KY:
I realize that now, but there are really so very few Republicans at all in Broward county that I thought it worth mentioning. They really are a rare breed around these parts, so generalizing the makeup of such a tiny group can be tough for the sake of the simplicity required by this map.
I wish the GOP sucked as bad everywhere as they do here.
Betty Cracker
@John S.: How do you rate the chances of Allen West getting the boot? Gyad, I hope so. What an embarrassment to the state. (And that’s saying something for FL.)
Gravie
@ FlipYrWhig: I believe Charlie Crist was at least partially done in by rumors of gay-ism. (His own.)
Frankensteinbeck
@EconWatcher:
It’s been awhile, but as I recall it’s the difference between Deliverance and Hee-Haw.
Anonymous At Work
Newt will have it better in the “Fuck Fidel” area because Rubio, exiled Cuban he may be, is a die-hard teahadist first and foremost and Newt speaks tea bagger. That’ll bring the Purple Rain and the Fidel areas into line. I mean, Romney will be campaigning in the Purple areas hard but the more people meet him (and, let’s face it, modest-to-decent income senior retirees? what else would they be doing?) will not enhance their enthusiasm. This is another election to be decided by turnout more than anything else. Larger turnout favors Romney, smaller Newt.
AA+ Bonds
InsiderAdvantage puts Gingrich up 8 in FL – although I will note that they are famously shitty
AA+ Bonds
@Anonymous At Work:
. . . did not hold true in SC
AA+ Bonds
I believe the moderation of Florida Republicans may be revealed as a complete myth – I believe those voters are defined by their fickle nature and little else
AA+ Bonds
And thus FL’s results will be decided by the news cycle, not through any basic difference with SC
AA+ Bonds
Of course, none of this will be anywhere near as important as how much money the screwy Red-conspiracy billionaires do or do not sink into Gingrich’s infrastructure – and thanks to FL’s laws, we will probably never really know this
mdblanche
Gingrich has been running radio ads going after the “Fuck Fidel” crowd playing up Romney’s gaffe from last time around when he regaled a Miami crowd with the slogan “patria o muerte, venceremos” not realizing it was one of Castro’s. He also stuck on a bit at the end blasting Romney on immigration. Apparently Newt is the only guy left in his party who knows how to read census results.
El Cid
The good news about the “Fuck Fidel” section of South Florida is that it’s now more “Yeah, Fuck Fidel, especially when the exile 1st generation grandparents are listening” but it’s no longer “Fuck Fidel because every single thing which happens in this area / country we don’t like is his doing,” which it used to be.
Birthmarker
I’m from Alabama and I agree NW Florida might as well be Alabama! But it is a great place to vacation. Gorgeous sugar sand beaches, dolphins swimming offshore…I’m partial to Seagrove but Indian Pass and other places are nice too. Someone on my fb page
said he was in Gulf Shores (AL) yesterday and it was 73 degrees and the beaches were beautiful.
Joel
Gingrich 84-16 favorite to win Florida, per Nate Silver.
Betty Cracker
@Joel: Wow!
JC
I’m coming to this late, but THIS is what the blogeztubes are for!!
You know now, that you have only whetted my appetite with this map. You now HAVE TO (because I must have my candy now dammit) map all the United States this way!
In fact, I would buy and put a map like this, on a house wall, as a discussion dinner piece, at least until November election.
Really – this is a damn fine idea – time to get BJ on it, to make money for the blog, and for yourself!
JK
@beltane:
I am a progressive and live in The Villages. There are many of us here now that the baby boomers and children of the 60s are retiring. It is not as republican as it used to be – now lots of union guys and public workers. Most of us are the middle class 99%. Love the map!
Chuck Butcher
Last spring I made the Leesburgh, FL Bike Ralley. Yes, from NE OR on a cruiser bike Harley. I have some rather foul mouthed opinions of FL drivers.
Skippy the Wondermule
Love the map, I never realized how Alabamish Florida is
Good luck down there in the trenches
Paul in KY
@Birthmarker: I’ll be on St. George Island sometime this year. Great off-the-beaten-path destination.
Another Halocene Human
I, for one, expect the Villages to trend Santorum.