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Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

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They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn – Nancy Pelosi

I personally stopped the public option…

I can’t take this shit today. I just can’t.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

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‘Forty-two’ said Deep Thought, with infinite majesty and calm.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

This is all too absurd to be reality, right?

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My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Shelter in place is one thing. Shelter in pants is quite another.

I’m going back to the respite thread.

Screw the Judean People’s Front. Splitters.

Deploy the moving finger of emphasisity!

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Call the National Guard if your insurrection lasts more than four hours.

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If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2012 / NH Voting

NH Voting

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The primary kind of sneaked up on me. I thought we had at least another week of stupidity before they started voting.

At any rate, what are the predictions? I’m thinking Romney will walk away with this one.

Oh, and Tebow? Really? Tebow? This has been me the last 48 hours:

Just subsitute “refund” with Tebow.

Reader Interactions

145Comments

  1. 1.

    Malatesta

    Mittens by 13 points
    Guy Who Believes in Evolution just barely edging out GOOOOOOOLD!
    Froth over Newt by 2 as Gingrich’s collapse continues
    And I guess Perry is still running

  2. 2.

    Martin

    That Huntsman is polling over 1% just underscores how non-representative NH is of the nation, even just looking at the GOP voting base.

    SC will be the decider as usual.

  3. 3.

    redshirt

    Amusingly(sadly) enough, if Tebow were to run he’d instantly be a Repuglican favorite, and would swoop up much of the Snowgrifter’s demographic.

  4. 4.

    MattF

    The Higher Powers have apparently decreed that Mittsy wins if he gets over 30%, so I predict 30.000000001 percent for the Soulless One. You can sell your soul at the market rate, but Satan has a sense of humor.

  6. 6.

    Schlemizel

    Define “walk away”. Willard will win but if he does not get at least 50% he is going to catch hell from a lot of people, if he falls below 40% it will be painted as a defeat.

    Interesting that it looks like Huntsman is the NH not-mitt. When they head back down to the slave states it will be Ol Frothy again I assume.

  7. 7.

    geg6

    Not even the MSM think the NH primary is interesting. Charlie Peirce says that they’ve pretty much all decamped to SC. The GOP in NH is an anomaly. SC is home base for the crazy that exemplifies today’s GOP. That’s where it gets interesting.

  8. 8.

    Villago Delenda Est

    I’m not so sure that OvenMitt is walking away with this one. His obvious glee with inflicting economic pain on others may give Huntsman and Paul a surge. Not a Santorum surge, obviously, but OvenMitt’s air of inevitability may take a hit here.

    Also, Noot is firing up the attack ads for SC. This, coupled with OvenMitt’s bizarre religion may at least slow down the march to coronation.

    This ain’t over yet, flyboy.

  9. 9.

    James Hulsey

    Now you know the pain that Browns fans feel at the mention of another Denver QB’s name.

    John Elway.

  10. 10.

    EvolutionaryDesign

    I love ya Cole, but HA HA. It wasn’t just Tebow. Our defense showed up for most of the game.

  11. 11.

    Ed Drone

    I’m thinking Romney will walk away with this one.

    Yes, but the pundits say it’ll be akin to a loss if he doesn’t run away with it. If he still gets his 25%, his “brand” gets a little more tarnish on it, so that when he wins the Republican’t nomination, the “enthusiasm” will be a lot closer to ‘resigned ennui’ than ‘rabid fandom.’

    Of course, there are some very rabid Republican’ts, but they’re mostly rabid talibangelicals or rabid anti-Obama neoracists, not establishment GOOPers. Turnout will be the telling point in this race (as it always is).

    Ed

  12. 12.

    Schlemizel

    @MattF:
    I had read that Willard was predicting 40% – was that not true? I’m trying to not pay attention to them, I’m sick enough on my own without having GOP poison added to my system.

    If the polls are saying 30 & the candidate says 40 thats asking for trouble.

  13. 13.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Schlemizel:

    Two things in NH:

    1. Huntsman is picking up momentum

    2. Don’t discount the libertarian weirdos delivering a strong showing for Paul.

    On the subject of SC, the Pharisees have decided that Santorum is the guy they’ll back to stop the Satan worshiper.

  15. 15.

    Gin & Tonic

    @geg6:

    The GOP in NH is an anomaly.

    You mean like those legislators who want every bill to demonstrate how it is grounded in Magna Carta? NH GOP cedes crazy to no other state. They are as guano-certified as the rest.

  17. 17.

    4tehlulz

    Mitt will meet minimal expectations: 40%
    Huntsman will seal up his ’16 bid with 20%
    Paul will get his 15%.
    Who care about the others.

  19. 19.

    Yevgraf

    @lacp:

    Imagine Tim Tebow throwing touchdowns into the end zone at Heinz Field….forever.

    Oh, man. That is too cruel.

  20. 20.

    flukebucket

    Good Morning America on ABC was fawning over the Tebow touchdown pass today. The guy actually said that if the pass had been 1/10th of a second earlier or later it would have probably been incomplete. He said it as if it were some kind of great nugget of information that most had overlooked. He said it as if the pass was so perfect that only divine intervention could explain it.

    Personally I am lovin’ this shit.

    I can just see in my minds eye Costanza with sweaty hands resting on restaurant table staring at the ceiling with wild eyes and screaming TEEEEEEBOW!

  21. 21.

    EvolutionaryDesign

    @Villago Delenda Est: Mayhaps, but they also spent most of their time on the line trying to stop the run. They disrespected Tebow’s arm, and they paid for it. Not that they didn’t have a good reason to disrespect it, as his accuracy in 5-15 yard situations is atrocious. Anyways, we still deserve some credit for winning. It was a team effort.

  22. 22.

    redshirt

    @flukebucket: The 316 passing yards is taking off as a meme. There’s a not small number of people that are taking Tebow as sign of GOD.

    Making Darth Hoody’s destruction of him all the more sweet.

  23. 23.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @flukebucket:

    He said it as if the pass was so perfect that only divine intervention could explain it.

    We need to find an arena with starving lions in it, stat, and toss this asswipe into it.

    The ASPCA will of course object to both starving the lions and offering this tainted shitstain to them, but screw it. The asshole needs to die a painful, public death.

  24. 24.

    geg6

    Gin & Tonic @15:

    Hey, at least they are referencing a secular document from the AD period and not some Bronze Age myths from a thousand years before Jeebus.

    They’re all assholes, but the Invisible Sky Wizard assholes creep me out more.

  25. 25.

    Napoleon

    @James Hulsey:

    John Elway.

    When Modell moved the team to Baltimore Elway was quoted in the Cleveland Plain Dealer saying something like “I am no longer the most hated person in Cleveland”.

  26. 26.

    Lol

    I wonder if “I like firing people” line will have the same impact Hillary’s tears did at the last minute in 2008.

  27. 27.

    Schlemizel

    @Villago Delenda Est:
    I think you are correct but it would be funnnn if Willard didn’t hit his mark.

    I hope that the Gingrinch can draw blood in SC. Read on line that one of the victims of Bain was a SC company, hopefully they can dredge up some ex-employee who’s pension money is helping to fund Willards vanity project. The smell of blood in the water would really excite the media sharks.

  28. 28.

    redshirt

    @Lol: Oh yeah, I’m still pissed at NH for prolonging the Dem primary in 2008. If Obama could have cleanly taken NH, it would have been a much smoother road.

  29. 29.

    General Stuck

    I just hope Citizens United comes with a money back guarantee for bought elections. When the wingnuts get done mauling their own with shadowy PACS, and anoint their chief clown and tea party knob washer, the shitstorm of the new century will start. Democrats need to make the mother of all ads on a loopety loop starring The Bane of Mitt (if he wins the nom) and his career of larding his silver spoon as a destroyer of middle class worlds and lives.

    Then watch the soulless shithead stutter himself silly trying to explain in an election about creating jobs. If any of the others pulls it out, they all will have their own versions of A Nightmare On Elmstreet to answer for, that will make Obama look like prince charming by comparison. And yet, no matter what happens, Obama will still win by a shoestring, probably, maybe. What a country?

  31. 31.

    Zach

    Dems need to stop going all operation-chaos on Mittens. He’s a weak candidate, but no one in the race now will beat him… go too far, and we’ll get a different, better Republican candidate (one without, say, photos of money pouring out of his pockets) who’d be much worse should he actually manage to become President.

    Mitt’s not remotely threatened right now… he’s the only candidate in the race with money other than Perry and Gingrich. Perry is a buffoon. Gingrich uses the money to enrich himself rather than his chances of winning. No one else is spending money to organize in post-Super-Tuesday states, get ballot access, etc. The race has gone on long enough to give Obama a head start and force Mitt to come out with tax plans and immigration policies that’ll cost him dearly… he’s not threatened enough right now to defend himself from the right.

  32. 32.

    joes527

    @4tehlulz:

    Huntsman will seal up his ‘16 bid with 20%

    20% in NH is the springboard to a 2016 victory? I’m not seeing it.

    In 2016, Huntsman will be the guy who decisively lost to the guy who lost to Obama.

    Now, in a rational world, the R’s will be asking themselves whether it is significant that the one constant in all their failures is themselves … but get serious. We don’t live in a rational world. The 2016 R lineup will make the 2012 lineup look like elder statesmen.

  35. 35.

    Schlemizel

    @redshirt:
    Ya know, when bowel obstruction bill (thanks to who ever coined that one BTW – I was tired of brick head now that he shortened his handle) first mentioned that 316 number I assumed it was just more sludge he had pulled out of his favorite orifice. But seeing it repeated I went & check & her really did throw for 316 on 10 passes. That is weird. Now, if the guy ever turns gatoraid into wine I may have to shift my allegiance from the one true pasta to this Tebow guy.

  36. 36.

    catclub

    @4tehlulz: I will be amazed at 20% for Huntsman. That would be some serious running under the radar. (yes, I know the press has been fluffing him more than the others. But a guy who gets what – 0.5% in Iowa seems out of it.)

  37. 37.

    GregB

    Many of the GOP chin strokers have been saying that the liberal media is forcing Mitt down their throats.

    I have seen FaceBook chatter by wingnuts telling us they’ll hold their noses and vote for Mitt.

    Once the GOP opens up their bag of racist tricks on Obama, all of those Democrats on the fence will come back home.

    Mitt will make John Kerry look like a great candidate.

    Besides, the GOP is going to have to rally around a guy who would need to hold a hot chocolate summit instead of a beer summit.

  38. 38.

    JCT

    @Mark S.: Whoa, no joke — I hope they had enough towels for cleanup.

    These guys are losing their shit because these GOP attacks on NitwitMitt are exposing just how damaged a candidate he is — so sorry for them.

  39. 39.

    Vince CA

    Thanks John for the laugh. I love Breaking Away, and that scene in particular. What a good way to start off the morning. For the sports disinclined (i.e. me), other than being a fundie who’s confused about the allegorical meaning of “God-given talent”, what’s the beef with Tebow? Because BJ is big on tags, how about one like “doesn’t apply if you don’t follow football”? Maybe that tag could be “Tebow”.

  40. 40.

    Yutsano

    @Mark S.: Oh wow. They can barely even swallow that pill that is Willard. If that’s supposed to be some sort of endorsement it’s amazingly half-hearted.

  41. 41.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @catclub:

    Both Iowa and NH are retail politics places. You can’t just run ads on the boob tube and expect that to do it for you, you have to go out and…ugh…meet people. Santorum put a lot of effort into Iowa, Huntsman into NH. Contrariwise, Santorum is ignoring NH and Huntsman ignored Iowa, their showings reflect that effort.

  44. 44.

    EvolutionaryDesign

    @GregB:

    Besides, the GOP is going to have to rally around a guy who would need to hold a hot chocolate summit instead of a beer summit.

    He can’t even do that. Hot Chocolate has caffeine. It’d have to be a Water with Lemon summit.

  45. 45.

    GregB

    Oh yeah. Remember the swift boating of Kerry was to destroy his perceived strong suit, being a veteran.

    Mitt’s strong suit is that he’s a businessman. The GOP challengers are in the process of making that Mitt’s weakness.

    That ball will be on the tee for Obama to whack the shit out of mercilessly.

    The Republicans will need a savior and Fred Thompson is too busy doing Metamucil commercials.

  46. 46.

    Schlemizel

    @EvolutionaryDesign:
    Postum!

    For those of you not familiar with the Mormon approved coffee substitute – consider yourself lucky. When my dad was in the clutches of a chiropractor he had the old man giving himself coffee enemas (along with some weird purple shit that stained everything it touched) but not drinking coffee, only Postum.

    It tastes like a combination of the worst decaf you have ever tasted, mud and some sort of agricultural effluent.

  47. 47.

    patrick the pedantic literalist

    @redshirt:
    I generally don’t like being old, but all things considered, I am glad that I won’t be here for the first Tebow inauguration.

  48. 48.

    Xecky Gilchrist

    @EvolutionaryDesign: He can’t even do that. Hot Chocolate has caffeine.

    You’d think so, but here in Utah chocolate is a favorite Mormon vice LA LA LA THERE IS NO CAFFEINE IN IT!

  51. 51.

    Yutsano

    @Xecky Gilchrist: The funny part being the prohibition is against hot beverages of all kinds. This somehow morphed into an anti-caffeine stance sometime in the early 20th Century.

  52. 52.

    pragmatism

    @Villago Delenda Est: and everything reinforces the belief. if i get one more tebow email saying, “OMG DID YOU KNOW THAT THE RECEIVER WHO CAUGHT THE TD WAS BORN ON CHRISTMAS DAY? TEBOW THREW FOR 316 YARDS! JOHN 3:16! THERE ARE NO COINCIDENCES!” i’m going to barf on my keyboard. and i’m a life long broncos fan.

  55. 55.

    jl

    @pragmatism:

    But 316 is not 3.16, which is not 3:16. Now, in some future playoff, I think a good chance that Tebow will throw 3.16, and I hope his base, and vulgar goofballs on morning talk TV, will crow about signs then.

    I will pay attention when Tebow manages to throw 3:16 in a game.

    Edit: I am not part of the Tebow hate parade, but as a child, and a slave of childish things, I was a fan of duh Raiduhs, so can never get too much of seeing Denver get beat. Seeing them and KC get beat are just ahead of my love of seeing the Steelers get beat.

  56. 56.

    amk

    UnionLeader supports my prediction – sucky turn-out from repubs

    voters are not crowding city polling places, especially if a comparison is made to 2008 when more than 50,000 people – or 75 percent of registered voters – cast ballots in the Presidential election, according to Normand.

  59. 59.

    Mark S.

    @Yutsano:

    Really? I thought that was pretty enthusiastic. They sound like PR flacks for Bain (Mitt Romney saved Burger King!), and then they basically accuse all of Romney’s detractors of just being jealous. Knowing how lazy these guys are, they probably let one of Romney’s aides write it.

  62. 62.

    Laertes

    @joes527:

    In 2016, Huntsman will be the guy who decisively lost to the guy who lost to Obama.

    The way Ronald Reagan in 1980 was the guy who decisively lost to the guy who lost to Carter?

  63. 63.

    kindness

    What horse tranquilizer did they need to use on you John? I’m sorry, sorry for you, sorry for the Steelers. You will enjoy Tebow’s ultimate loss though. Chances are it will be this week. if not this week then certainly next.

    Time is your friend.

  64. 64.

    jl

    Krugman has correct analysis of Romney’s ‘I fire live people’ comment:

    January 10, 2012, 10:26 am
    Who Fires Whom?
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/who-fires-whom/

    note: NYT link for those who cannot remember to look at the the URL in whatever little window thingee shows up on their browser.

    Also, supposedly insightful analysts on TV (and even a few BJ commenters) are busy excusing Mitt’s firing comment> “Of course he does not like to fire people” is the line.

    But that is not what Romney said. Romney said “I like to BE ABLE to fire people”. (emphasis added).

    Many of the lesser people have worked for bosses who ‘like to be able to fire people’, even if the act of firing itself is unpleasant, and delegating it is also unpleasant. So, I think Mitt is fair game on all aspects of the comment.

    Butt the real policy problem is that by turning his back on his own MA health care reform, Romney is advocating a health care system in which it will continue to be difficult to impossible for a lesser person to ‘fire’ their health insurance company. Only very rich people will be able to do that.

  66. 66.

    cathyx

    John,
    Why does Tebow stick in your craw so much?

    My armchair psychoanalysis is that he’s young, sweet, and a good person and you’re jealous, or you think he’s a fake.

  67. 67.

    Suffern ACE

    @pragmatism: I hope Tebow throws for 420 yards this week in a win. Now that his results are known to transmit devine messages, perhaps “Let’s go get stoned” is what God wants him to say.

  70. 70.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    I’d like to think that the Stealers’ weak secondary will be exposed by Barack Tebow in the fourth quarter of 2012….

  72. 72.

    The Ancient Randonneur

    In case anyone is interested you can get NH votes totals here. They will start putting up totals after the polls close tonight which 7 PM for most wards and 8 PM for a few towns.

    Here in Lebanon and Hanover, NH turnout is pretty low (so far) according to the poll workers I’ve spoken with. Weather isn’t a factor anywhere as we are having a very mild winter here in northern New England.

  74. 74.

    pragmatism

    @Suffern ACE: that would be outstanding. he could put 34:29 on his eyeblack for: And I will raise up for them a plant of renown, and they shall be no more consumed with hunger in the land, neither bear the shame of the heathen any more. — Ezekiel 34:29

  75. 75.

    redshirt

    @pragmatism: And if FSM be damned, Denver beats NE this Saturday, Tebow will ascend to Heaven and take all the Chosen with him in a Very Special Bronco’s Rapture.

    It will be insane. I’m a die hard Pats fan, but I’d almost like to see this happen, to witness the whirlwind of craziness.

    But not really. Go Pats (Satan)!

  76. 76.

    joes527

    @jl: THIS. Exactly.

    Getting lost in all the poutrage over DINOs who aren’t displaying proper poutrage over the whole “heh heh heh. he said fired” thing is that Mitt was TRYING to say something profoundly stupid.

    But I guess scoring points over awkward statements is a sign of a true progressive, and looking at the ideas that he was trying to convey is a sign of a fucking tote-bagger.

  77. 77.

    Martin

    @cathyx:

    Why does Tebow stick in your craw so much?

    Broncos QB. Same reason why my mom as a Pats fan hates Favre and all things Manning.

    Never attribute to reason that which is adequately explained by sports rivalry.

  78. 78.

    hitchhiker

    @flukebucket:

    Good Morning America on ABC was fawning over the Tebow touchdown pass today. The guy actually said that if the pass had been 1/10th of a second earlier or later it would have probably been incomplete. He said it as if it were some kind of great nugget of information that most had overlooked.

    That is some damn fine hilarity. Thx.

  80. 80.

    Paul in KY

    I was thinking of the famous Jim Mora Sr. rant. Just substitute ‘Tebow’ for ‘playoffs’ ;-)

  82. 82.

    joes527

    @Laertes:

    The way Ronald Reagan in 1980 was the guy who decisively lost to the guy who lost to Carter?

    Huntsman == Reagan? Srsly?

    Reagan came back from defeat for a whole variety of reasons — none of which were that he was more moderate than the rest of the field* in 76 and the GOP realized that it needed to select a more moderate candidate to win in 80.

    I’d believe in the GOP giving anyone BUT Huntsman a second look in 2016, but I don’t see a groundswell of sanity taking over the party by then.

    * I have no idea whether Hunstman actually is more moderate than the rest of the field, but it would be a long haul for him to break out of that role.

  86. 86.

    Mike in NC

    @Mark S.:

    Mitt Romney saved Burger King!

    Willard was the one who created all those horrible TV ads — now pulled off the air — featuring a guy with a plastic head? Seems so fitting.

  87. 87.

    James Hulsey

    @catclub: Trust me. LeBron hate is fresh and new, but it is nothing compared to the loathing Cleveland has for Art Modell.

    My question: Has this play been officially named yet? Like “The Immaculate Reception” or “The Fumble” where we know instantly what play is being talked about.

  89. 89.

    pragmatism

    @redshirt: for our very souls. however, i believe that the “patriots” (must question that) striking down the donkeys would only serve to make the tebownomenon stronger. just like obi-wan.

  91. 91.

    James Hulsey

    @Paul in KY: Except Satan’s afraid to let Modell in, because Modell would then move Hell to the North Pole to get a better stadium deal.

  92. 92.

    Laertes

    @joes527:

    Failed nominees (since 1972, anyway) are finished. Candidates who fail to get the nomination very often get the nomination one or two cycles later. (Reagan in 1980, McCain in 2008, most likely Romney in 2012.) Huntsman’s weak performance this time around won’t hurt him in 2016, and the name recognition will help.

    I’m inclined to agree with you that Huntsman’s real problem is that the GOP base will be looking for a fire-breathing Christianist culture-warrior in the Bachman/Perry mold, since they’ll most likely process Mitt’s defeat by constructing a narrative in which he wasn’t conservative enough.

    However: Four years is a long time and Huntsman’s a smart guy. I expect that’s plenty of time for him to re-brand himself as an authentic arch-conservative, especially since that’s what he is.

  93. 93.

    Cris (without an H)

    Hey, I know this has been answered, but I’m too lazy: are the delegate assignments in these GOP primaries winner-take-all or proportional?

    And if the latter, why isn’t anybody talking about that instead of going all Charlie Sheen WINNING?

    And also too why doesn’t the NY Times election center talk about how many delegates have been won so far?

    Also there are too many states nowadays, please eliminate three

  95. 95.

    Splitting Image

    I’ll go with:

    Romney 35%
    Huntsman 22%
    Paul 18%
    Gingrich 12%
    Santorum 8%
    Perry 2%

    Romney will probably get just above the level he will need to avoid having his win questioned, but not enough of a blowout to put everyone else away.

    He may have made enough gaffes to cost him South Carolina though.

    I’ll pick Huntsman to edge past Paul for second and Gingrich to finish ahead of Santorum. Let’s see how it turns out. So far I’ve been hearing about a low turnout. That’s not good news for the G.O.P.

  96. 96.

    Paul in KY

    @Laertes: You must have a 2016 future bet out on Huntsman :-)

    He is toast, because his ‘consevatism’ is not like the typical 21st century Repub voter ‘conservatism’. Huntsman would have been great back in the 50s or 60s (even 70s as a Repub). Now though, ‘conservatism’ (for Repubs) is about a quasi-facist expansionist foreign policy & a feudo/Libertarian starve-the-beast ideology to bankrupt all those who aren’t already millionaires and return us to the glorious 1890s.

    Huntsman is way saner than that…and that’s his problem.

  102. 102.

    Paul in KY

    @redshirt: Tebow is like Boromir, because he is infected with hubris. That is Boromir’s problem. He thinks he knows best (better than Gandalf, an immortal maiar, and Elrond, a 7,000 year old elf) how to defeat Sauron & it involves Boromir using the ring to marshall the forces of good & ending up with Boromir as the new restored king (not Aragorn). The ring, of course, plays on Boromir’s mental faults/fragility.

    Tebow is huberistic, because he thinks God takes some kind of personal interest in him being successful on the football field (IMO).

  105. 105.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    @pragmatism:

    The Book of Ron Paul 3:16:

    “For the LORD (TM) said: That fucker is clearly infringing my corporate personhood and must pay the price. I shall strip him of his last Amero without mercy! And the individuals who were NOT a people rejoiced greatly in a non-collectivist way.”

  106. 106.

    Laertes

    @Paul in KY:

    Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

    Three years ago I’d never have predicted that the Republican response to McCain’s defeat would be to run a former blue-state governor whose greatest achievement was the creation of a universal health insurance system. And yet, here we are.

    So, sure, part of my brain says that a Bachman will be the nominee next time around. But that same part of my brain said that a Palin would be the nominee this time.

    Turns out I don’t entirely understand Republicans.

  108. 108.

    Vince CA

    @Villago Delenda Est: Really? That’s scary. Dude has talent and he really thinks it’s because god has endowed him super-human strength and agility because of his piety? Shit, if that were true, monasteries would be full of hulks and supermen. It sounds to me like somebody has a Samson complex. Is there a Delilah in this story as well?

  110. 110.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    @pragmatism:

    No, no. Jesus confronted the fed and drove the filthy paper-money printers out of the temple. At least, that’s what Conservapedia says happened – so it must be true!

  112. 112.

    Tom Q

    @Laertes: Except, of course, Reagan didn’t lose “decisively” to Ford — despite facing an incumbent president, he took the fight all the way to the convention, and was within one state delegation (MS, with its 30 votes) of being in a dead heat with Ford. It was the closest convention vote of my lifetime (and, the way things are going, probably the last such).

    Something interesting about that Reagan challenge, vis a vis the way Romney’s being hustled at Pubs this year: Ford actually won the first half dozen or so contests — IL, I recall, by a landslide — and Reagan was being urged to drop out. Ronnie then won an upset in NC (with Jesse Helms’ help) in April, romped in TX in May, and won the majority of delegates from there to the convention. It’s amazing to me, in light of something like that, that people want to declare Romney unstoppable based on an 8-vote margin in IA and a win in the state next store to the one he governed (as Lawrence O’Donnell pointed out last night, Dukakis won the ’88 NH primary in a landslide, and got zero credit for it, based on geography).

  113. 113.

    Paul in KY

    @redshirt: I 1st read LOTR when I was 12. Didn’t really understand it until I re-read it in college (when I first read it, I thought ‘Numenor’ was the name of some kind of prison ship Sauron escaped from, stuff like that). Used to hang out at AFT & RABT until work banned us from going to those types of forums/chat rooms.

    I can give you my opinion on anything Tolkienesque ;-)

  114. 114.

    redshirt

    @Paul in KY: I just got into Tolkien in the last 10 years and love it. Re-re-re read The Silmarillion the last few weekends and wow, do I love it! Just incredible stuff.

    Numenor for the Numenorians! Say no to Sauron!

  115. 115.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    @redshirt:

    I am starting to get visions of Romney as the Bain Balrog, with Newt Gingrich breaking his staff on the Bridge of New Hampshire and screaming “YOU SHALL NOT PASS!”

    To which the Balrog replies in puzzled tones:

    ‘But I’m running for office, for Pete’s sake!”

  117. 117.

    dogwood

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Both Iowa and NH are retail politics places. You can’t just run ads on the boob tube and expect that to do it for you, you have to go out and…ugh…meet people. Santorum put a lot of effort into Iowa, Huntsman into NH. Contrariwise, Santorum is ignoring NH and Huntsman ignored Iowa, their showings reflect that effort.

    That’s a telling statement right there, I’ve said it for months, none of these people are ready for prime time. Obama, Clinton and Edwards were able to mount credible campaigns in Iowa, New Hampshire, S.C. and Nevada all at the same time. None of them ignored any of the early states. And I’m pretty confident the President will be able to campaign and keep his day job as well.

  119. 119.

    Paul in KY

    @redshirt: Glad you are enjoying it. It is a great work on many different levels.

    I’m waiting impatiently for the 1st Hobbit movie.

  121. 121.

    JWL

    I stepped aboard the Raider’s bandwagon during the second half of the immaculate reception game. I was-and-remain a life long Niner fan, and still disdained the AFC. Without caring which team won, I turned on the Raider-Steelers game to kill some time before the Niner-Dallas playoff game later that afternoon. Stabler replaced Lamonica for good in that half. Their talent and zeal could not be denied. They were, above all, a fun team to watch play.

    Even Pittsburg fans acknowledge the immaculate reception was a fluke. But what happened between their team and T-Bo last Sunday was different. The Steelers were flat-out bushwhacked two days ago, and that’s all there is to it. The U.S. Navy didn’t do better a better job of it at Midway, than the Bronco’s did last Sunday.

    That’s one nightmare of a football memory. One that will sting the nerve endings of Steeler fans forever. Happy to say it doesn’t bother me in the least.

  122. 122.

    redshirt

    @Paul in KY: Yesssss… the Precious. I’ve been salivating at the talk of the cameras they’re using to film. It’s going to be an amazing movie experience.

    But, having become a purist of late, I am filled with some doubt about how they’re going to make it 2 movies.

    My guess is they take some material from The Silmarillion concerning the Necromancer and the first White Council. Just a guess though. This would make me happy though, as I’d be thrilled to see anything from the Silmarillion in movie form (the opening of LOTR is it to date).

  123. 123.

    John Weiss

    Hey, John. Timmy is the real deal. The Steelers, IMHO had it coming. And they’re pretty well beaten up.

    – a cowboys fan

  124. 124.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    @redshirt:

    Mitt Romney for the voice of Smaug? Or would Ron Paul be a better fit for a gold-hoarding creature from the distant past?

  127. 127.

    Paul in KY

    @redshirt: I hope they flesh it out with some Silmarillion stuff too.

    The Tale of Turin Turambar would be wonderful to see (IMO). Think Smaug is a badass, he’s a piker compared to Glaurung. Hurin chained up on Thangorodrim forced to watch as Morgoth destroys his whole family, all because Hurin won’t divulge where Gondolin is. The capture of Hurin, him hacking off orc arms until he’s cptured because so many of them are clutching him that he can’t swing his ax any more. Turin’s youth in Menegroth & his accidental killing of Beleg, etc. etc.

  128. 128.

    mdblanche

    @Cris (without an H):

    Hey, I know this has been answered, but I’m too lazy: are the delegate assignments in these GOP primaries winner-take-all or proportional?

    Proportional.

    And if the latter, why isn’t anybody talking about that instead of going all Charlie Sheen WINNING?

    Could you rephrase this in the form of a horse race?

    And also too why doesn’t the NY Times election center talk about how many delegates have been won so far?

    Nobody else cares, so why should they?

    Also there are too many states nowadays, please eliminate three

    Does Missouri count as one or not? Also, since you don’t have a postscript, I’m just going to assume you’re a crackpot.

  129. 129.

    redshirt

    @Paul in KY: I was just talking about all this in person! And the whole founding of Gondolin was set up by Ulmo to get Earindil to Valinor and finally put Melkor the Morgoth behind bars.

    After this latest reading, I noticed way more connections between all the different tales than I originally noted.

    Turin’s story would be the easiest to make into a movie. But Beren and Luthien could give it a run, since it’s got hot chicks singing. There’s no real non icky love interest in Turin’s story.

  130. 130.

    Suffern ACE

    @Tom Q: Yeah. The problem though as we’ve discussed is that too many of the not-romney’s take votes but don’t have any campaign organization to actually get on the ballots in enough places to win. Or to be ahead. It’s like they’re all in this “I’ll win in XX and then move to YY and start campaigning there” tactic. But that kind of campaigning can’t happen any longer.

  131. 131.

    redshirt

    @Svensker: Palpatine is referred to as a Dark Lord, but then so is Sauron. They both fit. Though Palpatine is a better fit.

    Time to move into the Star Wars analogies again? Tebow as Luke!

  132. 132.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    @redshirt:

    There’s no real non icky love interest in Turin’s story.

    *Cough* Appalachia *Cough* I reckon a little bit of incest might make it seem more family values oriented in that there neck of the woods.

  133. 133.

    Paul in KY

    @redshirt: Turin’s tale is a complete downer, I must admit. You could get some ‘doomed love’ out of the Turin/Findulas romance.

    Beren/Luthian would be good. Plus you’d get to see Sauron in all his smarmy evilness (faking the outlaw into thinking he will see his wife if he will give up Beren and Barahir’s hiding place and then cruelly sending him to join his wife in death). Finrod sacrificing himself to save Beren in Sauron’s dungeon. The whole sneaking into Angband & getting the Silmaril. Thingol being turned nuts by the Silmaril & what happens then.

  135. 135.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    @redshirt:

    Tebow looks more like JarJar Binks, to my jaundiced way of seeing it. Of course, that does leave the recently re-embraced Offensive Assistant without a role.

  136. 136.

    Judas Escargot

    Having no chickens or goats available for slaughter and entrail-reading, I can only guess:

    Mitt Romney: 41%
    Ron Paul: 19%
    Huntsman: 17%
    Gingrich: 13%
    Santorum: 8%

    I have a feeling that Mitt’s already got the ‘anointmentum’ so he’ll squeeze in a number over 40. Paul’s voters are younger and more likely to be cellphone-only, so he’ll pull in better than he polled.

  139. 139.

    redshirt

    @Paul in KY: Dude! You know your stuff. Love it. And yeah, if Hollywood tried and make a Turin movie, they’d change it so much as to ruin it. Beren and Luthien would fit far better.

    As for me – and there’s no way this would happen, ever – I want to see the Akallabeth, in its entirety. Perhaps just for the image of the sky being blotted out by the Numenorean sails as they prepare to invade Heaven/wage war on the Gods. So awesome!

  140. 140.

    Svensker

    @redshirt:

    Time to move into the Star Wars analogies again? Tebow as Luke!

    No. No. And, no.

    ETA: OK, with the WASP version of Jar Jar. Nah, he doesn’t fit Jar Jar. Maybe with the baby version of Darth — most annoying kid actor of the last 30 years.

  141. 141.

    Jerzy Russian

    @EvolutionaryDesign:

    @pragmatism: Amen dude. Love the Broncos, hate the hype – it’s not doing our team any favors.

    Roger that. I gave up long ago worrying about whether the professional athletes or actors of whom I have a marginal interest in are assholes in real life.

  142. 142.

    gogol's wife

    I’m way too late for this, but the word “substitute” in your post should be “replace.” (Pet peeve.) I wish I understood this whole Tebow thing. Or maybe I don’t.

  143. 143.

    Scott P.

    Hey, I know this has been answered, but I’m too lazy: are the delegate assignments in these GOP primaries winner-take-all or proportional? And if the latter, why isn’t anybody talking about that instead of going all Charlie Sheen WINNING? And also too why doesn’t the NY Times election center talk about how many delegates have been won so far?

    Through early February they are proportional, I believe. But delegates are pointless at this stage. What matters is money. Winning early states is important not because it gives you delegates (New Hampshire has a pittance), but because it convinces donors to back you.

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