I wrote here that I’d be helping with Sherrod Brown’s Senate race as a county volunteer. I’ve been getting emails from a supporter of Brown’s opponent, Josh Mandel, not at my Balloon Juice address, but at an email address I use here locally.
I don’t really know that he’s a supporter of Mandel, because he has never actually written that, but I suspect he is, because the emails usually contain some rah-rah nonsense on Josh Mandel and then a link to something this person clearly thinks is “bad for Obama”. Why he doesn’t mention Sherrod Brown, I do not know.
I haven’t responded to the emails, and I won’t, but I’m actually finding them sort of helpful, because a lot of the time the linked material (in my view) is not negative but is instead positive for Obama.
My correspondent sent me this poll, again with the dire warning that it was bad for Obama. I don’t think it is, though. I think it’s fairly positive for Obama, so the mystery of what this Mandel supporter hopes to achieve by sending me heartening info on the President continues.
It’s from PPP, it’s an “enthusiasm” poll, and here’s the analysis of the numbers:
The group of voters most excited about voting this year, tied with the Tea Party, is African Americans.
The group tied for the third most excited out of the 18 we looked at here? Young voters. And when you take a deeper look at the folks under 30 who say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting this fall, they support Obama by a 69-31 margin over a generic Republican opponent. Those folks are going to be out again this fall as well.
There’s plenty of good news for Republicans on the enthusiasm front as well. Tea Partiers tie with African Americans for the highest level of enthusiasm. There are more Republicans (54%) who are ‘very excited’ about voting than Democrats (49%).
The desire to dump Obama may give GOP voters more of an incentive to get out to the polls than they had in 2008. But it’s kind of a given that Republicans come out and vote. Democratic constituencies tend to be the harder ones to engage and mobilize. But as much speculation as there’s been that they won’t be there for Obama this fall the way they were in 2008, our numbers disagree. If the GOP wins it’ll because they flipped independents and brought back out dormant 2008 voters, not because the Obama coalition stayed at home.
We heard about the “dormant” GOP voters in 2008, and apparently they were not excited enough about John McCain to come out. I think it’s safe to say that if the extremely irritable and reckless maverick John McCain didn’t excite them, the man who lost to John McCain last time, Mitt Romney, is not going to do the trick. That leaves hating on Obama to drive turn out for those (alleged) dormant GOP voters.
It’s fun to look at because it breaks out all kinds of groups: women, men, union members, and so forth. For example, self-described Liberals and Conservatives are equally (within one point) enthusiastic, according to this poll.