What channel are we going to for coverage? Who are we rooting for? And by rooting for, I’m assuming you are all treating this as I would a Ravens/Cowboys Super Bowl, which would be to root for injuries and hope no one wins. Basically, what outcome does the most damage to the GOP. If I had to guess, it would be Paul/Bachmann/Santorum in that order, since only Paul is on the VA ballot of those three. Then the freakout could really begin.
Reader Interactions
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Tom
Definitely rooting for Palin.
schrodinger's cat
Can anyone explain how these caucuses work anyway? I has a confused. Also all these blog wars and twitter wars are exhausting, can we has Tunch plz?
MikeJ
The best way to injure the GOP is a Romney coronation. I don’t think god loves us that much.
Leadpipe
I vote Bachman.
KG
Worst case scenario for the establishment would be Romney fall to 4th or lower. Gingrich, Perry, or Santorum winning would probably give them a fundraising boost to survive to SC and Florida; also probably bad news for the establishment. Paul winning would mean Iowa is out of touch and we should ignore it, because shut up, that’s why.
MikeBoyScout
I was rooting for Ron Paul because of the damage his victory would bring to the GOP, but given the shit storm the crank’s candidacy has rendered here, I’m thinking the whole Paul candidacy is a conspiracy against Steeler loving BJ-ers.
MikeJ
@schrodinger’s cat: Interesting to watch. Flip over to cspan and you can see supporters giving speeches for their guy.
In republican caucuses, they have secret ballots. In Dem caucuses, everybody moves over to the part of the room set aside for their candidate.
KG
@Tom: well, if we’re going that way, let’s root for Cain.
The Dangerman
I suppose the worst (best?) result is Santorum in the rear of the entire field.
Anya
David Gregory is one ugly SOB. I know, shallow…
P.S. did Al Gore fire Olbermann?
PeakVT
I think a Paul win would do the most damage to the caucuses themselves, while a Gingrich win would do the most damage to the GOP. A Romney win would be the worst outcome for Democrats because the media would have an excuse to ignore the freakshow.
Warren Terra
He’s not gonna win, but I’m still rooting for Gnoot, with Perry as a backup. Because they’re the only ones anyone can remotely see contending with Romney and keeping the blood flowing from the wounds; even the media, desperate for a story and an unresolved contest, can’t claim Santorum, Paul, or Bachmann is a genuine contender for the nomination.
lamh35
I just want Romney to be as low as possible…the smug bastard.
JC
I still think what gives me shivers about 2012, is the possibility of repeating 2010. If Europe blows up, it WILL drag down the USA economy, in ways that will allow the election of the Rethug candidate, and then both Houses of Congress being Rethuglican.
I have hope that the sheer amount of idiocy in the Republican field will turn people off, especially given the ugly way that Rethugs have comported themselves this year. But I worry.
Irony Abounds
I think having the frothy mix of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the byproduct of anal sex would be a fitting winner for the Republicans.
amk
ronneeee
Roger Moore
I think I’d treat it more as a Raiders/Cowboys Super Bowl, which is to root for a bloodbath and hope the game is called when neither team can field eleven players. I think the best outcome would be for the Republicans to split, with each side claiming dirty tricks by the other, competing conventions trying to take over the convention hall as the “real” Republican party, and a complete skunking in the election. I still like my chances better than Newt’s.
Veritas
1. Romney
2. Santorum
3. Paul
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
7. Huntsman
The list from #3 on down is solid, but even I can admit that Santorum may pull out a narrow win. But it doesn’t matter. It just delays his inevitable nomination but it doesn’t end it. No way Romney goes lower than 2.
And I hope Paul finishes third just to shut up those racist goldbug isolationist anti-semitic cranks and potheads.
RealityCheck
MikeJ
Newt’s rep in Urbandale explaining the Laffer curve, says the point where government gets no money would be pretty good.
dmsilev
For what little it’s worth, the entrance polls are (via TPM)
Paul 24, Romney, 24, Santorum 18, Gingrich 13
But, it needs to be said, in 2008 Romney was ahead in the entrance polling but ended up losing by several points.
SuzieC
@Tom:
How is “Sarah Palin’s Iowa Earthquake” freakshow of hilarity doing?
Raven
GO HOKIES!
jl
“What channel are we going to for coverage?”
Who is this ‘we’, masochist man?
WTH is there to watch with a night of caucuses?
Dingy ball rooms with random crazy GOP base milling around? Rooms of crazed wingnuts crying for an Xtianist jihad?
I’d probably see too many snack tables with pizza and stale sammiches and hit the fridge and start getting fat again.
I’ll be oblivious until tomorrow morning unless something amazing comes to me via this miserable lefty blog right here.
Edit: unless there are bottomless ladies on swings, as SPT saw in Porto. Porto’s in IA, right? Any live coverage from Porto, IA, let me know.
JGabriel
I’m going with Santorum 28%, Romney 21%, Paul 21%.
.
kc
Well, I’ll be watching “What Not to Wear.”
Jeffro
David Gregory just name-checked David Brooks a minute ago on MSNBC, and now I gotta go clean up puke splat off the living room rug. Thanks a lot MSNBC!!
Chris T.
I would not mind having The Bloated Toad win, but I’m rooting for Paul, because of the craziness. :-)
The Dangerman
I don’t know about tonight, but it appears that The Money wants Romney for the nomination, the Republican base be damned…
…but if it IS Romney as the Nominee, from the Money standpoint, he’d better fucking win, because having Obama beating McCain followed by having Obama beating Romney will lead to the Mother of all shitstorms from the Right (pardon my being Captain Obvious).
MikeJ
Shorter Newt rep: “nigger nigger nigger nigger!”
Romney rep up now. Says Romney brought government and people together when he was gov of Mass. Sounds like he was a Dem.
Sarah Proud and Tall
@The Dangerman:
I saw what you did there.
JGabriel
@MikeBoyScout:
I’m rooting for Huntsman to split Romney’s vote in NH, handing the win there to Paul.
.
PeakVT
@JC: I think unless it’s a really strong year for the Democrats (which I hope it will be) the Senate results are not going to be pretty.
Veritas
@MikeJ:
Playing the race card already?
JPL
Santorum, Paul, Newt and Romney or Romney and Newt.
I love just makin assumptions…
JGabriel
@MikeJ:
Yeah, Mitt brought Massachusetts together all right, in loathing.
freelancer
Anyone have a link to live streaming? Don’t have cable and network tv isn’t covering anything.
MikeJ
Passing the collection plate now to go along with voting. Typical republicans.
wrb
May the fish-faced vote early and often tonight.
Go Newt!
SiubhanDuinne
@Raven:
I’m curious, know you love the Illini and the Dawgs but what is your connection to VA Tech?
MikeJ
@freelancer: Cspan has it live on the ground, no talking heads, just seeing what Republican caucus goers see.
Hill Dweller
@Veritas: The only racism is ‘reverse racism’, amirite?
Anoniminous
Going to guess:
1. Santorum
2. Romney
3. Paul
Santorum has been the beneficiary of a late move of Undecideds and Evangelicals and his supporters have said they are 76% sure to caucus versus Romney with 58% and Paul with 56%.
I think Santorum will get into the 30s with Romney not doing much better than he did in 2008: 25%.
Who cares what Paul gets. He’s not going to come close to the nomination.
SiubhanDuinne
@JGabriel:
I hadn’t worked out the percentages but that’s the 1-2-3 order I’m expecting.
MikeJ
Hilarious when the president of the farm bureau spoke about Obama being a “community organizer, whatever that is.”
JPL
@freelancer: I’m not watching but if I were you I’d try http://www.aljazeera.com/ or cspan because both of those have live feeds to something..not sure what but there will be live feeds.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL: really you think Newt will end up in top three? Veeeeeery interesting. . . .
Hill Dweller
@JGabriel: Willard’s absolutely disastrous term as Governor hasn’t gotten a lot of play yet, but I suspect it will, provided he is the nominee.
As you said, he was loathed just a couple of years after taking office. We’re talking low 30’s level of approval; and it never improved, which is why he didn’t run for reelection.
Roger Moore
The results are starting to trickle in, and most of the candidates are now out of the single digits! Woo-hoo for real-time updates.
ETA: Notable exception: Hunstman, who has yet to get a vote.
JPL
@SiubhanDuinne: Not really but since we were just making assumptions and the way the post has been going lately, I thought that I’d add that. It’s wishful thinking because I’d like Romney in fourth.
also, too…If I were to bet, I’d have Romney in first or second..
Bob Natas
1. Paul, 2. Romney, 3. Santorum
Paul takes 25% plus. Romney at around 22%. Santorum at 14%.
dmsilev
With 1% reporting,
(a) CNN has called it for Barack Obama
and
(b) It’s Santorum/Paul/Romney/Gingrich (28/23/18/16 percent)
So far, anyway.
Edit: Link: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ia
Seems to update automatically on its own
WaterGirl
I think Santorum does really well, in spite of all the crazy stuff that’s coming out. Even though he can’t win the nomination, evangelicals have a BIG statement to make, and I think a vote for Santorum is a vote for Jesus.
I also think Newt may do better than expected.
I don’t care too much what the exit polls say. I mean, would you admit to voting for any of these guys?
SiubhanDuinne
@Anya:
I haven’t seen Olbermann since he left MSNBC. Why do you think he’s been fired from the Al Gore network (can’t remember what it’s called)?
freelancer
@MikeJ:
@JPL:
Thanks,C-span has it but it’s about as fly on the wall as you could get. People sorting post-its.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL: I see, thanks.
dance around in your bones
I was watching on MSNBC until de grandkids intervened. We are now watching ‘Bedtime for Francis’, which is FAR more entertaining.
Michele Bachmann is certifiable.
scav
ah, decisions decisions. So many lead weights plummeting on so many coyotes with placards. Ok, what I’d really enjoy is an utter breakdown in the usual compromise to a clear winner setup. I’m rooting for RepubIowans in spitting matches. Oh, and I want Bachmann speaking in tongues and handling snakes with Newt keeping up by having amphibians crawl out of his mouth, Santorum breaking out in tears as he frenches Ron Paul. I think the drugs have finally kicked in.
BruceFromOhio
I want to see Santorum shoot from behind in Iowa.
Also, Santorum.
dmsilev
@WaterGirl:
‘None of the Above’ is on the ballot. Let’s hear it for NotA ’12!
MikeJ
Bachman 14
gingrich 34
perry 37
paul 51
romney 115
santorum 82
in urbandale,IA
Roger Moore
@SiubhanDuinne:
They didn’t go with the obvious and call it “Al Gozeera”?
JPL
@scav: Bachmann preaching makes me think of why bother with church and state separation or at least enforce it and tax churches.
Origuy
Charles at LGF posted the Des Moines Register’s running tally.
With one precinct in, it’s Paul 50%, Perry, Santorum, and Romney each 16.7%. That represents 18 votes.
Big whoop.
Anne Laurie
@freelancer: Richard Adams at the Guardian. Sample:
wrb
I like a Santorum win almost as much as Newt win.
Santorum could take the nom from Mitt and he might be even more unelectable than Newt.
Looking good so far.
Of course it could be that the Santorum voters are the ones who had to vote quick because of their bedtimes.
JGabriel
@Roger Moore:
That’s quick. Didn’t really expect any of the precincts to post results for another 15-30 minutes.
.
Villago Delenda Est
If Romney finishes third or worse, the little shit Veritas/RealityCheck will cry like a little girl.
And then my schadenfreude meter will peg!
NobodySpecial
The one good thing about thinning out the herd is that with more time spent on the remaining candidates, the more likely it is they shoot themselves in the foot and each other in the back.
Roger Moore
@dmsilev:
“Still more popular than Huntsman!”
John O
TPM says Santorum is oozing out to the early lead, with 3% reporting.
SST
Rooting for Va Tech. Wait, what?
Anoniminous
3% in
Rick Santorum 463 26.2%
Ron Paul 406 22.9%
Mitt Romney 318 18%
Newt Gingrich 286 16.2%
Rick Perry 169 9.5%
GO FROTHY BABY!!!!
JPL
There’s the public vote and the vote for delegates. Does the public vote matter?
dmsilev
The full entrance poll results are just full of hilarity. For instance, a full 10% of the electorate, or probably on the order of half his supporters ‘has reservations” about Mitt Romney. When divvied up by income, Ron Paul comes out ahead for all brackets below $100K, and Romney wins the above-$100K. Within the margin of error, nobody regards Romney as a ‘True Conservative’.
MikeJ
True fact: One of my ancestors donated the land the Iowa capitol is on. He then immediately left the state and died on the way to the gold fields.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: What’s this about Olbermann being fired? I don’t get the channel he was on after he left MSNBC, so I am out of the loop.
dr. bloor
@WaterGirl:
The problem is that to avoid admitting you voted for one of them, you have to admit to voting for another of them.
dmsilev
@Villago Delenda Est: Well, with 4% in, Mittens is a solid third place, though the gap between him and Frothy Mixture in first is pretty small.
Baud
I find both MSNBC’s and CNN’s coverage irritating.
JPL
@MikeJ: Is there a family plaque? Actually plaques are quite common for the underlings.
Villago Delenda Est
@SST:
You know, I have never, ever received a good answer to the musical question, “WTF is a Hokie, anyways?”
freelancer
Vote tally off of C-span from one of the precincts (assuming a very small one)
Bachmann: 14
Gingrich: 34
Perry: 37
Paul: 51 or 57 (hard to read)
Santorum: 82
Romney: 115
Hmmm. Don’t know what to conclude from that if anything, but it IS a result. That more people in that area like Perry than even Gingrich is staggering. If Newt is a dumb person’s idea of a smart person, then Perry is a dumb person’s idea of an imbecile.
Roger Moore
@JPL:
Probably more than the delegates do. It’s what’s going to be steering the media narrative until New Hampshire, which is potentially important. The actual delegates won’t be named until the state convention, by which point everything will be over but the shouting, and the delegates will all be given to the obvious nominee as part of the coronation process.
Anoniminous
@JPL:
Guess what? None of it matters.
These caucuses are voting for delegates to the county caucus who will vote for delegates to the District convention who will vote for delegates to the State convention who will vote for delegates to the GOP national convention.
Iowa has a whopping 28 (whoa!) national delegates, all of them are unpledged.
MikeJ
@JPL: They brought his body back and he’s buried on the grounds.
Gex
I’m thinking Santorum will win. He’s this year’s Huckabee.
dance around in your bones
I swear, I hate politics. This year has been brutal. SO much estupido.
fuzed
Go Ravens
burnspbesq
Who are we rooting for? Australia, Seton Hall, and Virginia Tech.
And whatever outcome in Iowa that will make Veritas cry.
dr. bloor
@John O:
Could just be some early bubbles of support that will pop as further votes come in.
pragmatism
I will not watch on tv but will instead follow an unimpeachable source, sully’s liveblog. So far I’ve learnt that Ron Paul iz kewl.
Sarah Proud and Tall
@Villago Delenda Est:
I’ve bookmarked this just in case:
Villago Delenda Est
@dmsilev:
Night’s early. Things could change. West Bumfuck (located on the Missouri River border with Nebraska) or East Bumfuck (located on the Mississippi River border with Illinois) could change everything. Until South Bumfuck or North Bumfuck’s results change everything a third way.
My prediction is Obama takes the Dem nod, again. It’s going out there on the limb, but I’ll stand by it.
Southern Beale
LOL. I’m watching “When Harry Met Sally” on HDNET.
Totally do NOT care about the freak show in the Midwest.
Anne Laurie
@MikeJ:
Yes, the various state legislators hated Willard just as much as us Common Massholes did. And that’s despite the fact he spent more time out of the state than in — there was snark from both parties about renting out the Official Corner Office, because its nominal occupant used it so little. Even the Republicans complained Mitt had only run for Governor to have a bigger platform for starting his run for the White House, something that wasn’t much of a secret after his PR people had to forcibly stop him from bragging, as a warm humanizing touch, that his poor wife was willing to sacrifice her health and move back to Massachusetts because “nobody gets elected President as the governor of Utah”.
Cat Lady
Paul winning will fuck with the GOP establishment, the values voters and the MSM, because then all of the big guns will be trained on him, his newsletters, and his fucktard followers. Win, win, win.
jnfr
I’m going with NCIS. Much more interesting than the BS that will all be around tomorrow.
Elie
John, I am wichoo..
The more effed up the better. My take is that effed up is likely since the “good people” of Iowa — Christian and moral as they are — are good and effed up.
That the Republicans are this effed up while the MainScream media makes it sound like Obama and the Democrats are the crazee people — well, I am trying to stay focused on the long view…
As a side note: Lordy, y’all have gone bonkers over the last few weeks. I have a new job and I can’t participate in the fun stuff as regular anymore, but I do lurk. I am totally amazed at the ongoing opera and melodrama around GG and Ron “the Clown” Paul and how everyone has gone around the bend. ForPetesSake! Get a freakin Grip! (ABl included)
If you step away from the crazee for a few days (much less weeks as I have), you realize that battles amongst ourselves aint the ticket to anything but demoralization. Demoralization depletes energy and recognition of accomplishments and confidence.
John. You really should know better. Stay away from mixing
football, booze and emotions… it never comes out right..
Karen
I’m watching MSNBC for the caucus info and think it’ll be Santorum, then Romney then Paul, only based on the stats that say that the 30 and unders are for Ron Paul and the 64 and overs are for Romney and the 30 and unders are at a lesser percentage.
Tonight my mom asked me what a caucus was and why is Iowa first, New Hampshire second, etc.
I told her it was to give rural voters representation but I’m not positive. Anyone want to tell me so I can tell her?
SST
@Villago Delenda Est: Yeah,’fraid I’ll disappoint you on that, too. Not quite sure that was a pick, though…
burnspbesq
@Villago Delenda Est:
Virginia Tech is sometimes also referred to as the Gobblers. That should be a helpful clue.
Their maroon and orange unis can rival Oregon’s for ugliness.
I will root for them out of conference solidarity.
chopper
i’m also going with ‘obama’ as the big winner.
Jess
Today, as I gazed in disgust at my neighbor’s Vote Ron Paul sign, my dog took a dump on his lawn. I decided that was such a fitting metaphor for Paul’s concept of civil liberties (i.e. the freedom to dump on others, but no regulation to protect the dumpees) that I didn’t bother to pick it up. I guess I’m a bad person…but somehow I’m not that sorry.
PurpleGirl
Al Gore’s channel is CURRENT. It’s showing the Iowa caucuses live, btw.
Anoniminous
6% reporting
Rick Santorum 1,229 24.2%
Ron Paul 1,204 23.7%
Mitt Romney 1,132 22.3%
Newt Gingrich 690 13.6%
Rick Perry 460 9%
Maybe nobody will win and they will have to have a All-In Naked Mud Wrestle to determine the winner.
(Advantage: Santorum)
SuzieC
@John O:
Want to see headlines saying: : “Santorum Comes From Behind.”
Or
:”Santorum Pulls Out a Win”
hildebrand
Figuring that the nomination is already in the bag for Romney, a third place vote for him tonight would be fun. Why? Because it would drive him even further to the right, as he attempts to show the faithful in South Carolina (as NH is a lock without further wingnuttiness) that he is their man. Beyond that, listening to Mitt try to sound tough is just too much fun. He makes Dukakis in the tank seem commander-in-chief like.
Roger Moore
@Anne Laurie:
So, as a long term watcher, what do you think of the progress in AI? Is Romneybot2012 any closer to passing the Turing test than Romneybot2003 was?
dmsilev
@Villago Delenda Est:
CNN and the AP have already called that, even before the actual D caucus. Liberal Media Conspiracy! ACORN! Voter fraud! Chicago Thug!
Jess
@freelancer:
And that, my friend, is a tipsy person’s idea of brilliance! (tipsy person = me)
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@Roger Moore:
Beauty. A bit like seating the Mississippi Democratic delegation in 1968, only with more fracturing, bad blood, and divisiveness.
Villago Delenda Est
@burnspbesq:
NO ONE can rival the Fighting Fashion Nightmares of the University of Oregon!
Gaze into our reflecting helmets, and see your warped soul!
Gaze at our uniforms, and know the meaning of optical pain!
Muahahahaha!*
*This is the laugh of Josef Stalin as he enslaved Eastern Europe.
Baud
Looks like attempts to convince Iowa Dems to remain uncommitted have failed.
hildebrand
@Roger Moore: Not a chance. Robin Williams in ‘whatever-that-film-was-that-ripped-off-Isaac-Asimov’ was more true to life.
JPL
@SuzieC: More likely corporate media will lead with does Iowa matter?
I do love though Santorum?Paul is killing Romney..
Elie
@PurpleGirl:
I love that station/channel/whatever…
Watch it all the time — and El Jazeera… mixed in with the Food Network, TLC and football…
Judas Escargot
MSNBC has it at 24/22/23.
Will the Republican Wave Function please collapse already?
MikeJ
There’s nothing halfway about the Iowa way to treat if they treat which they may not do at all.
dmsilev
@Roger Moore: Question I’d like to see some voter ask Romney:
Geoduck
If Romney gets knocked out of the top two spots by anybody, I’ll be happy. Anything that delays the coronation even for a couple more weeks is good.
SST
@Jess: The free market will clean it up. Or the free market will punish you suitably for failing to clean it up.
Roger Moore
@Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason:
I’m curious: what are Florida’s concealed carry laws like? Because given the nature of the Republican party, mixing firearms into that kind of argument could result in a literal rather than figurative bloodbath.
Gex
@Jess: Love.It. Oh, I love that so much. What’s he going to do? Have the government tell you what you have to do?
RossInDetroit
@Anoniminous:
Stop that. I’m eating. Well (pushes away plate) I guess I’m done…
Veritas
Romney is hanging in there…we just gotta wait until the cities report.
dmsilev
12% in, and it looks like a Paul/Santorum/Romney 3-way.
(sorry for the mental image, folks)
MikeJ
@dmsilev: Is this a test to see if he’s a replicant or a lesbian?
John O
@dr. bloor:
It must be said that Santorum supporters are more likely to stick to their candidate.
freelancer
@pragmatism:
“which seems like taking responsibility to me” should become a fucking meme hung around Sully’s dumbass apologist neck.
chopper
@dmsilev:
perfection.
gelfling545
@BruceFromOhio: Do you think the Santorum children will eventually change their names?
burnspbesq
@Villago Delenda Est:
There are a number of women’s basketball coaches, notably Kim Mulkey of Baylor and Sylvia Hatchell of North Carolina, who could teach the Oregon football team a thing or three about fashion felonies.
Brian R.
I’m thinking it’ll essentially be a three-way tie. Let’s say, Paul 26%, Santorum 25%, and Romney 22%.
JPL
@chopper: We don’t know if the turtle is black so how can we respond. Newt would offer it a mop though.
pete
I’m late into the predictions, but I’m going for:
1. Paul
2. Santorum
3. Romney
But what I really want is the Newt to overtake the Romneybot. That would be entertaining. And can we please tell the lovely and talented Rick & Michelle they can go home now?
handsmile
@SiubhanDuinne: (#53)
The name of the network is Current TV. Established several years ago with Al Gore as co-founder, it was all but invisible in the media ecosystem until its hiring of Keith Olbermann. It showcases many worthy documentary projects.
Jennifer Granholm, former Michigan governor whose Canadian birth precluded her from seeking a more prominent national political role, was recently hired to anchor Current TV’s 2012 election coverage.
Last week, Huffington Post floated a scurrilous story that there was a behind-the-scenes feud between Olbermann and Current’s management because he had been largely absent from its Iowa caucus coverage.
dr. bloor
@SuzieC:
“Romney, Paul Drown Beneath Wave of Support for Santorum”
Raven
@Villago Delenda Est: Keokuk! Used to fish there.
Under the Aurora Freeway
I’m rooting for chaos, and for the big money boys to quake in their boots.
Realistically, that means:
1. Santorum
2. Paul
3. Gingrich
4. Romney
Roger Moore
@dmsilev:
Next up:
scav
R Adams gives the deleted tweet from Ron Paul to Huntsman about his sole vote (vota?) so far being in Linn County. That would be one of the saner bubbles in the state, poor lonely dears.
LiberalTarian
Wow. I recall back in the old days a whole different cast of commenters. Guess I’ve been way way way out of the loop.
But, still, love hatin’ on the GOP, and y’all do it so very well.
Satanicpanic
fucking Ron Paul in the lead, great. we’ll never get rid of that old coot
Anoniminous
16% Reporting
Ron Paul 24.1%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rick Santorum 22.9%
Newt Gingrich 13%
The tension mounts. ALL of Amurka is wondering, “Can Roemer (who?) get more than ten votes.”
(+2, I am no longer responsible for my actions.)
Benjamin Franklin
@Southern Beale:
@Under the Aurora Freeway:
I second the Party of Chaoticians.
Anne Laurie
@Roger Moore: The new version plays slightly more meat-based on the teevee, but I doubt it’ll hold up to scrutiny over the next 10 months.
The one — and, please Goddess, only — time I ever met Willard “Mitt” Romney was by accident, in the very early stages of his gubernatorial run, as he (& a squadron of very young Mormom handlers) accosted half-awake commuters at 8am in the Back Bay train station. He flunked the Gavin de Becker test with every third or fourth person. I’ve never seen so many people physically shying away from contact with a ‘friendly’ handshake — defined as a dark-gloved hand thrust sharply towards throat-level, backed by a teeth-baring primate threat expression that bore no resemblance to a genuine smile. The little handlers, in their cheap-knockoff Bain-capitalist dark tweed overcoats, had to keep scurrying to deflect some startled traveller from calling 911 (fortunately for Willard, pepper spray is a tightly controlled substance here in the People’s Republic).
Martin
Go Ron Paul! Looking forward to watching the GOP try to spin away a racist, insane libertarian being the preference of Republican voters.
pragmatism
@freelancer: Paul farting would sound like taking responsibility to sully. Some historic wriggling and contortioning (not that kind) by sully after re-raising 4x with a 2 of gold standards and a joker. His quasi victory lap against tnc today pissed me off.
Villago Delenda Est
I still think eventually Romney will get his day on the throne in Tampa, but due to the rule changes the process will not be as quick as it was for McCain. The question then becomes will the batshit insane base accept the unacceptable as they reluctantly did in 2008.
I think their hatred of the near Sheriff will bring them together, the wretched loons.
Anne Laurie
@Brian R.:
If they each hit 27%, will Sullivan give John Rogers a Moore Award?
dmsilev
18% in, it’s Mad Dwarf/Frothy Mix/Replicant, with about 200 or so votes gap between each place. Overinflated Ego is about ten percentage points behind. Neither FootInMouth or CrazyEyes is able to break into double digits, and of course OtherMormon is way way behind, just barely beating out “none of the above”.
Anoniminous
I’m wondering what
precinctscaucuses have reported. If Des Moines is in Romney gots problems. Des Moine is the state capitol and should go heavily for the Insider Candidate.dance around in your bones
@Anne Laurie: He really IS scary, huh? LOVE your description.
Quarks
Come on, No Preference/Other! You can get more votes than this!
handsmile
While I’m rooting for the man who owes his national prominence to Dan Savage, I think Duncan Black/Atrios has the right take on tonight’s media orgy cum political contest.
To paraphrase: if Mittens wins, Iowa is the most important thing EVAH. If anyone else wins, Iowa has no importance whatsoever.
JPL
@Martin: The Paul/Santorum wave is killing Romney. I am disappointed with Newt though.
Maude
@LiberalTarian:
We have talent.
Obama was having a web chat in Iowa this evening.
phil
evangelicals breaking for:
1. santorum
2. paul
3. gingrich
and that right there is our mitt constituency problem in a nutshell.. the question is, how will a protracted primary battle affect down-ticket (senate) races? anyone got anything?
Yevgraf
*sigh*
Am stuck watching crying fatties.
Two hours every single fucking Tuesday, for years.
Why in hell she likes this whimperfest, I got no idea.
Then they’ll vote off the most competitive players every time they get a chance, all while crying big fat blubbery tears.
dmsilev
@Anoniminous: CNN has a per-county breakdown. Polk, which is Des Moines’ county, is 27% in (somewhat higher than the state as a whole), with Paul/Romney/Santorum at 28/22/20.
Brian R.
@Villago Delenda Est:
Probably. But by the same token, their ODS could be their downfall. The Republican base is absolutely convinced, all evidence to the contrary, that the rest of the country agrees with them that Obama has been an unmitigated disaster with all his Kenyan anti-colonial soshalizist gay commie Mexican fascist ways.
They’ve become so sealed off from reality in the Fox News echo chamber that they’ve gone from simply believing the individual bits of bullshit (“Obama has made the economy worse!”) to embracing the inevitable conclusion of connecting all these dots (“Obama is deeply unpopular!”) and that means they think anyone can beat him and they can take their time to coalesce around a candidate.
Which, comes to think of it, explains the boomlet for Herman Cain.
Veritas
@JPL:
See what unlimited corporate money and Super PAC negative ads do to a candidate? Get ready for the same thing that Romney did to Gingrich to be done to Obambi.
Tons and tons and tons of negative, hard-hitting ads from anonymous groups with STACKS of corporate cash, while Romney floats above the fray running positive only ads. Works like a charm.
And thanks to Citizens United and the Supreme Court, there’s nothing you can do about it but whine.
RealityCheck
Anoniminous
@JPL:
It would ‘splain things if the ‘loosely attached’ Newt people went Santorum.
By “loosely attached” I mean people who said they would support G-man but ended-up not.
(I, of course, shall not argue if you – or anybody else – wants to define “loosely attached” as “a couple of cards short of a deck.”)
scav
@dmsilev: now THAT sounded like a race between Snow White’s presidential posse. I’d been thinking it was more like handicapping a thee-legged steeplechase between the 5 horsemen of the apocalypse but you may have convinced me otherwise.
hildebrand
Clearly Romney is not a Roy Batty level replicant – as native or even acquired intelligence doesn’t seem to be his thing – so we need to figure out exactly what level of replicant he is – probably a bit more than a Leon, but certainly not to the level of Pris or Zura (sp?). So where are we on the scale with Romney-bot 2012?
Anoniminous
24% with Santorum and Romney check-by-jowl:
Rick Santorum 23.2%
Mitt Romney 23.2%
Ron Paul 23%
Newt Gingrich 13.4%
Rick Perry 10.4%
Brian R.
@Anne Laurie:
Heh. Well played.
Martin
Way to go MSNBC. You put up the choropleth map of results and show 6 candidates in 6 shades of red. Idiots.
But I would point out to the audience, that a Ron Paul win provides maximum chaos to this race. Him winning is almost indefensible, and it undermines Mittens just enough to throw future support more likely toward Santorum or Newt. Go Paul!
MikeJ
Anybody manage to sit through enough fox coverage to see how they spin the clusterfuck?
“Americans love all Republicans equally!”
JGabriel
Jeepers, this is close:
26% Reporting
6,297 23.1% Romney
6,256 22.9% Santorum
6,240 22.9% Paul
.
Veritas
Romney pulls ahead! As I said, wait for the cities to report.
Narcissus
Current TV has the Vanguard mini-doc series, which may be the best thing on TV right now.
PeakVT
This caucus results map is pretty nice, even if it is from the IA GOPers.
hildebrand
@Martin: Romney definitely has to place in second or third, or the whole narrative swings to ‘Romney inevitable’, and the string plays out in a rather boring narrative. Remember, nobody (well, no-MSM-body) thought that Mittens had a chance in social conservative Iowa, so a win for Mitt quiets all of the ‘Republicans-in-disarray’ story-lines.
If Mittens wins tonight, it will be the quarter-billionaire v. Pres for the next 11 months. I am not sure if even the MSM wants that.
dmsilev
Love it. Take a look at the Des Moines Register homepage. It can’t have cost Obama’s campaign all that much to buy that nice big ad, and it’s going to get quite a few views tonight…
RossInDetroit
A friend just got back from spending the holiday is Tehran.
” Welcome back, XXX. Glad to see you traveled safely. You missed today’s big news: Iowa is going to find out if it’s possible to nominate nobody at all to run for president. Tough, but it was the only sane move.”
Mike in NC
It was roughly 15 years ago this week that the company I was with sent me and a few other miscreants on a week-long business trip to Des Moines. God did that suck. The weather was miserable. Nothing to see but corn fields and pig farms. Fortunately the supermarkets sold booze in addition to beer and wine.
Baud
@PeakVT: It’s amazing how random the counties are–no clustering.
Also, I love that they made Santorum purple.
dmsilev
@PeakVT: That map is actually from Google.
hildebrand
@dmsilev: I saw that earlier today – nice piece of work by the Obama campaign. But remember, they are the ‘nots-good-at-retail-campaigning’! Or something like that. I think people forget that Obama campaigns rather well.
Villago Delenda Est
@hildebrand:
MSM wants some sort of horse race to keep them entertained until the conventions.
They never actually get one, of course, because things are more often than not decided by the vernal equinox. Still, 2008 provided them with sufficient drama on the D side to satisfy their hunger for horse racing, even though the R side was pretty much sewn up by April.
This year, well, the fact is, the only two candidates with serious ground games are Romney and Paul. Everyone else is praying for an Iowa miracle to propel them forward, assuming they have bothered to get their name on ballots in other states.
Zagloba
I love that CNN isn’t even acknowledging the existence of “none of the above” as an option.
JGabriel
@handsmile:
I’m sure that’s how the media will play it, but in fact the truth is the exact opposite.
If Mitt wins after only minimal and late campaigning, bolstered by tons of advertising, that will show that Iowa is NOT unique, that it can be won with an advertising blitz, whereas if Santorum wins, then it underscores the importance of retail politicking there.
If Paul wins, it proves the GOP is nuts, or it proves that Iowa has to stop allowing independents and Democrats to same-day register and vote in the GOP primary. Not sure which storyline the networks will go with in that case, maybe both.
.
Anoniminous
31% Reporting
Mitt Romney 23.4%
Rick Santorum 23%
Ron Paul 22.8%
Newt Gingrich 13.2%
Rick Perry 10.2%
Romney has a 118 vote lead.
Martin
@Baud:
They really should have that checked out. Purple Santorum can’t be good.
Geeno
I want Santorum to win. The Daily Show tomorrow would be classic.
Roger Moore
@Mike in NC:
This is common in the
more civilizedless uptight parts of the country. I find it strange to go places where you have to go to a special store to buy liquor, much less the places where only the government can sell beer. And they complain about government overreach in California!MikeJ
Michigan gunning down Va Tech. Up by one now.
JGabriel
Still close:
31% Reporting
7,844 23.4% Romney
7,726 23.0% Santorum
7,655 22.8% Paul
.
msskwesq
@Mike in NC: That’s BS. Des
Moines is a fairly large city with suburbs. I admit at certain times of the year the weather can be crappy, but it also can be super wonderful. I lived in northern Virginia/DC for 15 years and I’ve been to North Carolina many times, it no urban utopia.
Quarks
@Zagloba: And is even garnering votes! Not many of them, but I live in hope that No Preference/Other will at least defeat Huntsman.
Brian R.
MSNBC: JC Watts just said “Republicans don’t like affirmative action unless it’s their political candidates.”
Yes, JC Watts.
MikeJ
@Martin:
Have I stumbled across a Cabin Boy fan?
Martin
@dmsilev: That’s a smart ad, too:
* Made health care affordable (Des Moines is pretty much nothing but insurance companies)
* Cut taxes for every American (ouch)
* Historic fuel efficiency standards (for the ethanol state)
* Ended the Iraq war (Iowa is quite an anti-war state, which is a big reason why Paul is actually doing well there)
Linda Featheringill
@Brian R.: #161
Apparently so. Every now and then something bubbles up to the tune of “Obama is toast”.
I don’t think the Prez already has the election in his pocket but really folks, beating this man will be hard. Any man who can get himself elected as the first black president is a very good politician and he has a very good campaign team. He might be beaten but it won’t be easy.
Remember the Fox News video where the cast was dumbfounded that 48% of the US thought that Obama could win a second term?
Villago Delenda Est
You know, it’s just shocking that Huntsman is doing so well, only a few raw votes behind Other.
I understand that Other’s SuperPAC has been blanketing the Iowa airwaves with attack ads aimed right at Huntsman’s forehead.
joes527
@KG: I see on TPM that Cain has 11 votes so far. I’ve got to assume that he is somewhere shaking his head tonight, unable to believe that the rubes STILL don’t get that it was all a gag.
Judas Escargot
@Veritas:
Racist!
RossInDetroit
TPM is acting borked in Chrome. Stack overflow. Shit overlapping on the page.
Fail…
ETA: Works in FF. Google Fail.
WaterGirl
@MikeJ: Not funny.
Martin
@MikeJ: Never seen it. I just got lucky on that one, I guess.
Brian R.
@MikeJ:
Please tell me that metaphor was an accident.
msskwesq
I want to see Santorum win the GOP nomination. With his sexist and racist views there isn’t a women, black, Hispanic, Middle Easterner, Asian alive in the USA that would vote for him.
MikeJ
@Martin: @Martin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Gea7YA75iM
PeakVT
@dmsilev: It did seem a little too good for a small organization.
joes527
Michele Bachmann: 1,932
Jon Huntsman: 211
He was the fucking Ambassador to China. And now he is a little more than 1/10th of Michele Bachmann.
That has to hurt.
Villago Delenda Est
@RossInDetroit:
Chrome working fine for me, RiD.
Dunno what the deal is.
Baud
Chuck Todd tweet:
hildebrand
@msskwesq: Like they would or should vote for Romney? Romney is clearly the candidate that reeks white privilege the most – and a savvy campaign should be able to exploit his flaws.
Romney would have been the old-fashioned and hopelessly out-of-touch candidate had he been running against Eisenhower.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@msskwesq: Michele Bachmann, Hermain Cain, Marc Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Alan Nakashini. (OK, Jindal is a descendant and I had to go dig for an Asian Republican). There are plenty of people who vote against their own interests.
Richard
A brief pause for this bulletin….
Jon Stewart Crushes Fox News In The 2011 Ratings
Now back to your regular programming.
Anoniminous
Santorum, Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich are sucking the oxygen from each other. If one person had consolidated the GOP base (Conservatives and Evangelicals) that person would be walking away with it at 52.2%.
Brian R.
@Baud:
I guess the #FL2000 hashtag would’ve been a bit too much for him.
Mr Stagger Lee
@SiubhanDuinne: He will be back on Countdown tomorrow. Frankly What ever problem ALGORE and Keith has with each other needs to be patched, because Current will sink, and Olbermann may never get another job for being such and A-hole.
JGabriel
Nate Silver:
Just throwing that out there for people’s edification.
.
burnspbesq
Australia is beating the stuffing out of India.
Cacti
I’ll have to laugh if Willard takes Iowa with a smaller share of the vote than he had in 2008.
Talk about yer failing upward.
handy
@MikeJ:
Hail! Hail!
RossInDetroit
In honor of today’s festivities I think it’s appropriate to re-post the GOP Clown College
Especially Old Scary Eyes.
The Other Chuck
@dmsilev:
One of the “indie” newspapers in San Francisco actually did ask that question of the candidates for mayor in the 2004 election. All but one were befuddled, but Tom Ammiano replied “I’d ask why you were giving me the Voight-Kampff Test”. Win.
Dream On
I’ll go with Paul – he reminds me of an overblown & nutty Gandalf. With Saruman politics, usually.
Mnemosyne
@Baud:
Where’s a Brooks Brothers riot when you need one?
@Roger Moore:
In California, you can get mail-order booze. Though it does come with a hilarious sticker warning the UPS driver that he’s not allowed to leave it with you if you’re visibly drunk when he arrives.
Splitting Image
I have to admire Rick Santorum’s spunk. He may yet pull out a come-from-behind victory here.
MikeInSewickley
I would like Santorum to win as I simply don’t know how the Faux Newsbots could spin this as a positive for the GOP.
Paul would be my next most favorite as every paid for pol and analyst would go ape shit trying to destroy him thereby giving the Dems a chance for some relative peace for at least 2-3 months.
Romney would be, well, Romney.
slag
@Richard: Reading that made me very happy.
Raven
@MikeJ: What the fuck is the matter with you?
El Cid
The Krug-Man is done with fake civility.
handy
@Splitting Image:
“Santorum Pushes Through! Romney Gets Sloppy Seconds. Huntsman Brings Up The Rear.”
AA+ Bonds
Fox News reports three-way dead heat, Romney/Paul/Santorum, with 40% reporting.
That’s my ideal result, one that determines absolutely nothing
El Cid
Santorum leading w/24%.
Warren Terra
I’m using Huntsman as the margin of error. I only take differences among the top three seriously if the differences between them exceed Huntsman’s current vote total.
Cacti
@Splitting Image:
Puke
Anoniminous
@JGabriel:
Thanks for the link.
Interesting Romney is running behind his ’08 totals,
BTW, Iowa City has come-in strong for Paul. So much for “the cities will go Romney” idea.
(+3)
David in NY
I see that the combined forces of Huntsman, Cain and Roemer are exactly one vote ahead of Other. By latest TPM count.
slag
@Splitting Image: Ugh
And it appears even Cole is predicting a Santorum win:
Anoniminous
46% reporting:
Rick Santorum 24.1%
Mitt Romney 23.9%
Ron Paul 21.9%
Newt Gingrich 13.2%
Rick Perry 10%
CoastalMike
biggest pseudo-news on this night of pseudo-news: Palin being interviewed on Financial Network and the hotness factor is gone. She looks and sounds like that middle aged hairsprayed waitress in the all night diner.
handy
Santorum Emerges From A Three-Way.
AA+ Bonds
Fox News now lists 46% reporting,
25% Santorum
24% Romney
22% Paul
Hal
@El Cid:
Just saw this, and all I can say is, wow…Rick Fucking Santorum? Really GOP??
RossInDetroit
Huntsman will be lucky to beat Rounding Error. I almost feel sorry for the guy.
AA+ Bonds
Jesus Lord can it be, can we actually get a Santorum win out of this, the man looks like a lizard and has the morals of a viper
Roger Moore
@burnspbesq:
All out for 191, while Clarke and Ponting have put together a stand of 250 and counting? That’s got to hurt.
joes527
@Mnemosyne:
… but as of this week you can no longer buy any alcohol in the self checkout. It used to require the person watching over the self checkout area to recognize that I am old and key in an approval, but I guess that isn’t good enough any more. Damn government overreach. this is just like the Nazis.
Cacti
@Hal:
No matter how much GOP Inc. tries, they just can’t make the base stop worrying and love the Romneybot.
dmsilev
Big batch of votes just came in. With 48% reporting, it’s Frothy Mix in the lead, with Replicant a nose behind, and Angry Dwarf falling half a length back. Overinflated Ego still trails by five lengths, and FootInMouth has moved up slightly. CrazyEyes lags the pack, and OtherMormon is just barely edging out Other.
AA+ Bonds
GO RICK GO, AHAHAHAHAHAHA
El Cid
According to exit polls, people with a family income under $30,000 went for Paul by 38%; and people earning over $100,000 went for Romney by 36%. And in between the two, they divided up among Paul and Santorum.
Cacti
@RossInDetroit:
Huntsman is running for 2016.
Four years from now he can point back and say “I told you what a bunch of losers and loons those pricks in 2012 were.”
toschek
Just thinking about Santorum sliding into first as the old song goes is keeping this hippie laughing.
Mnemosyne
@joes527:
Apparently some stores were allowing customers to self-override the age check by entering in their club card number. Because, of course, no 17-year-old buying a six-pack of Mickey’s knows what his phone number is.
Stupid bad apples ruining it for everyone.
Trentrunner
Carville says that Romney is to the GOPers like a dog with a pill: You keep feeding it to them, and they keep spitting it out.
Richard
@RossInDetroit:
LOL! I love that comment.
AA+ Bonds
Esquire’s 2011 national poll of Republicans reported that all of 8% of respondents considered “social conservative” to describe themselves, ahahahahha, COME ON RICK WOOOOOOOOOO
Karen
MSNBC is saying that they may not be able to project a winner because the count is way too close to call. It’s basically tie between Santorum and Romney right now.
JGabriel
Santorum dribbling ahead with 48% reporting:
13,339 24.3% Santorum
13,011 23.7% Romney
11,972 21.8% Paul
.
Joe Lisboa
Go BLUE! What a weird first half.
Also, too: Love seeing Santorum/Paul fending off Mitt from a definitive win like this. Keep it up, Iowans.
AA+ Bonds
There is gonna be nothing like the fascist vote slipping to Rick who can’t even pretend that he thinks gay people are human. DELICIOUS.
pseudonymous in nc
As a distraction/comparison: assuming around 120,000 total caucus votes, that’s about as many as voted in the mayoral race in San Francisco last year.
Narcissus
“Santorum comes out of nowhere, stinks up the place”
Aww I overdid it
Valdivia
any idea of what turn out was like on the dem side? it was seen as a dry run for november so I am curious
WaterGirl
@El Cid:
I think Obama and all democrats should repeat that for the next 10 months.
dmsilev
With just about half the precincts reporting, there are about 54K votes so far. If it’s a representative set of precincts, that means a total turnout of about 110K votes. In 2008, there were 120K votes, in a year where Republican turnout was down across the board thanks to one GW Bush.
Can you *feel* the enthusiasm?
AA+ Bonds
I imagine Karl Rove is in a bathroom stall somewhere slamming his hand in the door over, and over, and over
dmsilev
@Trentrunner:
Maybe they should try coating Romney in cream cheese? Even if it doesn’t work, it’d be amusing as all hell.
joes527
@Mnemosyne: I used to just bang on the self checkout machine, and shout at it ’till the approval came through. Seemed to work for me. No one came and asked for my ID.
Mark S.
I guess I don’t know shit about Iowa. I thought Des Moines was on the eastern edge of it.
Anoniminous
Whoo-whoo!!!!
Early press is “Three Way Tie in Iowa.”
Can “GOP in Disarray” be far behind?
Narcissus
That’s not what Republicans slam in bathroom stalls
El Cid
@pseudonymous in nc: Yes, but very few of those San Franciscans were Real Americans.
SiubhanDuinne
@Trentrunner:
Okay, I’m no big fan of Carville but damn, the guy has a way with a phrase.
AA+ Bonds
@Narcissus:
NICE
handy
@AA+ Bonds:
Not likely. Mittens didn’t play IA as hard, so he’ll take a second place finish. NH is his plum. Then survive SC and wrap things up in FL. That’s the plan.
Martin
@Mnemosyne:
Seriously? I’m gonna have to order some by mail.
And where the fuck are the Paulbots? Get with it people, he’s falling behind!
WaterGirl
@Trentrunner: No longer a big fan of Carville, but that was funny! Especially since I gave my pup his pill today and he spit it out.
AA+ Bonds
I guaran-goddamn-tee you that what put Santorum up top was the jail-the-gays comments, really cements his bonafides, I am pretty shocked that it put him up this far among the fascists, but y’know, gift horses. . .
Any luck, he’ll take South Carolina and squeak out a brokered convention and we’ll have something like a Johnson vs. Goldwater split in the popular vote
amk
davidaxelrod tweets: One of the closest,most exciting contests I’ve seen in years! Bulls and Hawks tied at 62 with 6 minutes to go. Oh, how are the caucuses?
David in NY
I’m sure Barney Frank is disappointed in Newt’s fall. Wonder if he thinks Rick is an adequate substitute.
(What’s the quote? Ah. “I did not think I lived a good enough life to see Newt Gingrich as the Republican nominee.”)
Valdivia
@amk:
ha!
AA+ Bonds
@handy:
If he loses South Carolina’s primary and somehow wins the Republican nod he will literally make history, hasn’t happened yet
Anoniminous
@Martin:
Outside of Ames, Iowa City, Fairfield, and – maybe – Cedar Rapids Paul is going to have to pick-up his votes oneseys-twoseys.
AA+ Bonds
@handy:
And the problem that will have Rove tearing his hair out tonight is not Romney finishing second: it’s a three-way dead heat between Republicans when no one even gives a shit if Romney wins New Hampshire (although if he loses he’s doomed and so are the Republicans’ chances in 2012), I mean, I figured my posts made this obvious but ah well, there’s your full explanation
Mnemosyne
@pseudonymous in nc:
That seems like awfully low turnout in SF. My congressional district (or, as Stephen Colbert called us, the Fighting 29th) had over 161K people vote in the 2010 House election, with Democrat Adam Schiff gliding to an easy victory with 104K votes.
@Martin:
One of my bosses will sometimes order wine online, and I swear to you it comes with that sticker on the box. I don’t know if the vineyard puts it there or UPS does.
wrb
@dmsilev:
Ouch, I feel for you. After all the less-worthy attempts above you come so close to perfection and don’t see it.
Maybe they should try coating Romney with Santorum. That’s a pill the GOP will swallow. And even if it doesn’t work, it’d be amusing as all hell.
Cacti
@David in NY:
Didn’t frothy just say today that States should be able to ban birth control.
Yeah, he’ll do nicely.
JGabriel
FYI, Everyone: The winner of the Democratic Caucus was Barack Obama!
(File Under: Things Everyone Already Knew.)
.
Ruckus
@joes527:
Incorrect.
The clerk just has to check all ID’s and enter a date, not just an approval. So my 62 yr old white haired ass gets carded.
AA+ Bonds
49% reporting, Fox gives 25-24-22 split, cracking another, can’t believe the left’s luck tonight
David in NY
@Cacti: Ooh. Missed that. Go Rick!
WaterGirl
If Mittens wins by even one vote, he will be declared THE WINNER!
If he comes in second or third, no matter how close the final results are (or not) I believe the media spin will be that it was a 3-way tie.
Anoniminous
@AA+ Bonds:
Romney has been expected to win NH since January 2011, so a WIN! there doesn’t do him much good.
He’s not expected to win South Carolina so a loss there doesn’t do him any damage.
Florida, however, is a Big Deal. not only is it a GOP Must Win in the general if the supposed Front Runner and GOP insider-supported loses 3 out of the first 4 contests … things get “interesting.”
JGabriel
@handy:
And I am SOOO rooting for Huntsman to split Romney’s vote, and give that plum to Paul.
.
JGabriel
Richard Adams @ The Guardian:
Heh.
.
wrb
@AA+ Bonds:
I can’t understand why Paul’s “execute the gays” didn’t pull it out for him.?
Probably didn’t get it heard by enough.
AA+ Bonds
@Anoniminous:
Dude, any Republican losing in SC does TONS of damage.
As I’ve noted over and over, it’s not scientific, but neither are political kingmakers. . .
and since the founding of the SC primary, no Republican has EVER lost South Carolina and taken the Republican candidacy. Even McCain squeaked out a nominal win in 2008.
That’s why Rove wants to lock it up BEFORE South Carolina.
But now, he can’t.
so LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Cacti
@AA+ Bonds:
And given that he’s underperforming where he was 4 years ago in a middle of the road state like Iowa, he’s going to get buried in the full-on, evangelical/teabagger stronghold of South Cackalacky.
Valdivia
@JGabriel:
I thought there was a campaign for uncommitted or something? Still curious about attendance though.
AA+ Bonds
@wrb:
I know right!
Anoniminous
@JGabriel:
Romney is polling 43% in New Hampshire.
While I sympathize … ain’t gonna happen.
WaterGirl
@JGabriel: What about the protest vote that was being pushed? (Forget what they call it, but it’s the equivalent of I don’t’ like any of these guys.)
Also, do we know what the Democratic turnout was? I know they wanted it to exceed the republican turnout.
handy
@AA+ Bonds:
On paper it would seem Santorum has something of an inside track on SC, it being the “socially conservative” state. He’s already dumping ad money there. But IA is not SC and the guy doesn’t have the machine behind him that Romney does.
AA+ Bonds
@Anoniminous:
Um everyone knows Romney’s going to win NH barring a meteor or something??
suzanne
Can Ron Paul FOAD already? Seriously, he makes me so sick.
Drum Circles And Weed
So.
Romney can’t make the sale, loses to a two-bit biblethumper who has a taste for both graft, and keeping his wife’s miscarried children in a pickle jar.
Glad I’m not a Republican today, or this year. They are so fucked. Can’t buy an election if nobody shows up to pull the lever.
freelancer
@AA+ Bonds:
I believe the sound of that goes a little something like this.
AA+ Bonds
@handy:
Rove needs to crush all comers in SC with Romney or there is a lot of trouble ahead.
SC is a big machine state, though, with the machine’s levers held by foreign policy hawks.
Pat Buchanan noted that even if Paul wins in Iowa, this could cause him trouble in SC (just like it did for Pat) and honestly I think that whole kit and kaboodle will go for Mitt.
But even Rove might not be able to fix this for Romney in SC and if he doesn’t, the Republicans are up shit creek
handy
Man Mittens may still pull this off. Ugh.
Valdivia
@WaterGirl:
Hi! mindmeld!
Splitting Image
Looks like Rockin’ Ron is falling behind. Santorum is pulling out in front and Romney is staying close behind him.
WaterGirl
@Valdivia: We both asked the same two questions!
Nice to see you, every time I see a comment by you I have been late to the thread, just reading to catch up. Whatever happened with your romance? Can I ask?
AA+ Bonds
Fox now gives 59% reporting, still
25% Santorum
24% Romney
22% Paul
JGabriel
52% Reporting (Over the halfway mark!)
14,289 24.3% Santorum
13,935 23.7% Romney
12,717 21.6% Paul
Still a tight horse race. They are turning at halfway mark, folks, with Man on Dog in the lead, followed by Dog on Car, and, in third place, That Dog Is Not The Federal Government’s Responsiblity.
.
Cacti
@handy:
There are places where Romney’s mormonism is not a big deal.
South Carolina is not that place.
AA+ Bonds
If there is some sort of bizarre miracle and Mitt slips below 30% in final NH results expect Intrade to roll immediately to Obama for 2012
Anoniminous
@AA+ Bonds:
Roger-Dodger.
I agree: Romney needs to get “vetted” by the intellectual sludge masquerading as the GOP Southern Base. The SC result is our first evidence of how well he can appeal to that mob.
In case you didn’t know, Romney campaigned his ass off in SC in ’08 and came in fourth. He’ll do better this time since the GOP state organizations will be behind him.
Joseph Nobles
@JGabriel: Stealing that. Try and stop me!
AA+ Bonds
@Cacti:
Def, it’s Rove’s big gamble, Romney in SC . . . .
JGabriel
New thread for the second half of the Shit Show.
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wrb
A santorum upwelling
Valdivia
@WaterGirl:
yes so funny we were wondering about the same thing–I can’t find the info anywhere.
Of course you can ask: it kind of died with a whimper. We still talk–he called this evening. But the intensity and romantic edge is gone. I think we both needed to get it out of our system and once that happened it turned into a loving kind of friendship given that there was no future in it. However lovely it was.
But: I met someone. Italian architect, sweet handsome, funny, dreamboaty. We’ll see how it goes. Big romantic get together at the end of the month in nyc. Will let you know what happens. :) Thanks for asking.
Hope things are well with you.
Cacti
@freelancer:
Not bad, but in response I give you the incomparable Tunak Tunak Tun.
AA+ Bonds
Fox gives 79% reporting and puts Romney in a slight lead with a 25%-25% tie . . .
and then rolls it back to 60% and puts Santorum in the lead 26%-24%
What the hell you jackasses
priscianusjr
@dmsilev:
You’re up to your neck in a barrel of vomit, and somebody throws a sack of shit at you. Would you duck?
pseudonymous in nc
@Mnemosyne: I think SF’s mayoral race gets decided in the primary somewhat. Anyway, the 2010 mayoral election in New Orleans had about 88,000 voters out of a population of 340,000 or so, most of whom are also not Real Americans®.
AA+ Bonds
Fox now giving 87% reporting and Santorum leading by less than one hundred votes, I really wish that were the final result ^_^
Anoniminous
@AA+ Bonds:
Votes aren’t there. Or – more true – the Not-Romney votes will be split among 3 or 4 candidates.
(+4)
AA+ Bonds
On the other hand, a 25%-25% split may be spun by the press into a Romney win and if that happens then the nomination is Romney’s, our best hope (and it’s likely due to the narratives this year) is “GOP in Disarray”
AA+ Bonds
There is another way to view this:
Rove knows the ground game in SC and if Santorum has nothing there (and really, how could he) Rove may be celebrating
Jerzy Russian
I guess for me this is like the Raiders against the Chargers. A scoreless tie into overtime to allow for more injuries.
kvenlander
So imagine you’re a conservative evangelical. Now your choices are: a mormon, a catholic, the guy your pot smoking nephew raves about, an ex-lutheran-ex-baptist catholic. Oh, and that guy.
Feel the enthusiasm.
JGabriel
88% (7/8ths of the way there) of Precincts Reporting:
26,443 24.6% Santorum
26,398 24.5% Romney
22,728 21.1% Paul
.
AA+ Bonds
Fox gives 88% reporting,
thirteen vote lead for Santorum, Jesus
WaterGirl
@Valdivia: I guess that would be the good news and the bad news. Yay for sweet, handsome, funny dreamboats!
Always sad to see that kind of intense connection to another person fade, but you’ll always have Paris . :-)
Definitely let me know how your NYC time goes!
Not so much happiness and excitement for me. My dog died about 3 months ago and I have a new pup, which should be a happy thing, but I find myself struggling a bit. But I have high hopes for the new year!
different-church-lady
One can dream, can’t one?
burnspbesq
Pointing out for 134. He and Clarke combined for 288, the biggest partnership Ever in an Australia – India test. Well done, gentlemen.
AA+ Bonds
If Fox’s shitty serif-fonted graphic (I told those fuckers to get rid of that business after Fox Nation but noooo, even they love ‘free’), if that graphic ends with Santorum in the first spot, I’m going out to buy shots in celebration
Valdivia
@WaterGirl:
sorry about your dog! a pet’s death is terrible. hope the new year brings you only joy.
SIA
@JGabriel: HAHAHAHAHAHA. FUNNY!
RossInDetroit
Can’t stand the suspense. I have to go to bed or fall asleep sitting up. Wake me if anything exciting happens.
Anoniminous
Santorum is history after Iowa. In SC as you correctly point out he “has nothing there” and he will fade by the end of this month; he doesn’t have anything in Florida either.
I think it is safe to say Bachmann will “suspend her campaign” (= Go Away) after tonight and her supporters will have to find another candidate to support. Perry has been spinning his Iowa results and vowing to fight on in South Carolina.
Well, maybe.
I can’t find recent SC polling but the last I looked Romney and Gingrich were in a tie. Bachmann and Perry voters are way more likely to move to Gingrich than Romney so I have to give Gingrich the edge in SC, as things now stand.
Granted this is speculation but one thing we can take from Iowa is the GOP base really doesn’t like Romney and as the Conservative/Fundie oriented candidates drop-out the Con/Fund voters will consolidate, unifying the Not-Romney vote.
BlueDWarrior
I dunno how hard Mitt Romney can spin winning by a fraction of a percent…
He will try though, that’s the funny thing about Caucases
MikeJ
@BlueDWarrior:
You misspelled caucasians.
Joseph Nobles
Ron Paul just now: “Remember when Nixon said we are all Keynesians now? We’re all waiting for the day when we can say, “We are all Austrians now!””
Seriously.
hildebrand
@Anoniminous: Bingo – ‘Not-Romney’ wins the Iowa caucus, hands down. This drives the ‘not sold on Romney’ meme.
NH restores order with an easy Romney-bot win.
SC confuses the matter by offering up another ‘Not-Romney’ victory.
Which all leads to Florida – where Jeb Bush is asked 10000000 times whether he will jump in or not – he waffles for two days, and then declares that he will not – which leads to Romney once again looking like the runner-up in everyone’s poll but still sneaking out a win (he officially becomes the Steven Douglas of the race at this point – at least general-electionally speaking) and Romney limping to the finish line. Smells like VICTORY! Or something like that.
Drum Circles And Weed
Romney can’t even break 25%? Gotta be fucking kidding me.
I look forward to the Koch foundation spending their children’s inheritance into the drain that this election is going to be. They’ll be broke, we’ll still have Obama, and the GOP will either find sanity or run a real Confederate soldier in 2016.
Bad day to be a Republican.
handy
@Joseph Nobles:
What a riot. I wonder over how many heads in that room did that reference fly?
suzanne
@Joseph Nobles: My husband and I just watched that and looked at each other in that WTF kind of way.
Four years ago, I considered Ron Paul a harmless annoyance. This time, I eagerly await his humiliation, as I consider him a dangerous wackjob.
DYAC. I know how to spell “wackjob”.
srv
I do not understand why anyone does not consider this the deepest bench of true Republicans in the last half century.
suzanne
Newt Gingrich is surrounded by a host of women, not one of whom has hair that moves.
WaterGirl
@Valdivia:
I’ll take that! :-)
Joseph Nobles
@handy: Oh, I think everybody got that one. I’m going to check C-span Video Library once the speech goes up to see what Rand’s actual reaction was. I was too busy laughing incredously to notice.
JGabriel
Joseph Nobles:
[Picture of confused delegates scratching their heads and whispering to each other, “Weren’t they Nazis?”]
.
Arundel
It’s a very American dream to wish to be Austrian. WTF? And this crackpot goldbuggery- saying most people support it.. I mean most people have no idea what he’s talking about.
Rand Paul behind him looks absolutely murderous right now, the snit of a serial killer there. Noticed when Ron made his most decisive statements- eliminate the Fed, get out of Afghanistan- Rand conveniently coughed rather than be seen applauding, it seems. Wants to keep options open no doubt.
Great, now Newt, doing the “24” scenario, Iran as supervillain. So fricking fun, this fuct country of ours.
danimal
Since I have predicted a Santorum explosion in Iowa for the past few months, I want to say the following to my many naysayers on this blog:
Hahaha, who’s got the shit-eating grin, now?
WaterGirl
@suzanne: I believe your wackjob would benefit from the addition of the letter H.
JGabriel
@danimal:
I want to remind you that I wasn’t a naysayer and effectively joined Team Santorum about a week to a week and a half ago.
.
Roger Moore
@Mnemosyne:
And yet with such a safe (D) seat, the best we can get is a Blue Dog, and the (D) is for Disney. I guess he’s better than Rogan was, not that it would be hard. The redistricting has put me into the new 27th District, so I’ll get to see what it’s like to have a more solid progressive as a Representative with Judy Chu.
opium4themasses
I am getting in here way late. I don’t have the.. energy/time/inclination to read everything.
I wanted to post this.
I dislike the moniker “flyover” state. I lved there for awhile. Seems about like everywhere else, but cold and windy.
Anne Laurie
@AA+ Bonds:
I keep hoping the famous NHampster contrariness, combined with the Free State blow-ins, will somehow rob His Mittness of his “rightful” tiara. Unfortunately, some tens of thousands of Erick-Erickson-Gated-Community escapees from our own beloved Commonwealth will undoubtably pull their levers for Willard, because he reminds them of themselves.
JustBeingPedantic
Did I just hear Tweety say Santorum topped Romney?
Triassic Sands
@danimal:
Please, don’t use the words shit-eating in a discussion about a man whose name is synonymous with butt juice.
WaterGirl
@Triassic Sands: I’m pretty sure that was intentional on danimal’s part.
SRW1
And with that result, when will they count the hanging chads and who is going to organize the riots?
Triassic Sands
@BlueDWarrior:
This is a big win for Romney. He put very few resources into the Iowa caucuses, concentrated on New Hampshire, and still pulled out a win — proving what a dynamic, charismatic vote magnet he is.
Or something like that.
Triassic Sands
Corrected Washington Post headline:
Triassic Sands
@WaterGirl:
I suspected as much, but it’s still cruel.
Waldo
Listening to Mitt’s speech — sounds like he just won the presidency. Dick.
JGabriel
@Valdivia:
@WaterGirl:
Sorry I didn’t get back to these sooner in all the rush. Anyway, the numbers for “uncommitted/none of the above” were so small that it never seemed worthwhile to post them. I heard there was some talk about Dems registering for the GOP caucuses and voting “uncommitted” but I guess it fell through.
.
WaterGirl
@JGabriel: Thanks. Yay for people not falling for the uncommitted trap!
JGabriel
Final Score, Dog On Car beats Man On Dog by 8 votes:
Mitt Romney — 30,015 24.6%
Rick Santorum — 30,007 24.5%
Ron Paul — 26,219 21.4%
Newt Gingrich — 16,251 13.3%
Rick Perry — 12,604 10.3%
Michele Bachmann — 6,073 5.0%
Jon Huntsman — 745 0.6%
No Preference — 135 0.1%
Other — 117 0.1%
Herman Cain — 58 0.1%
Buddy Roemer — 31 0.0%
.
Arundel
How’s this- they’re all fucking loons and nutjobs, promising us to our faces that they’re out to destroy America as we know it. They’re out to outdo each other in bragging about how they’ll do it, braggging and promising endless wars, new wars, utterly fucking you and your descendants over by eliminating Medicare and SS . They are BRAGGIng and preening about who will destroy America as we know it, shred the minimal social net we have, launch a few new wars while making Grandma eat cat food and allow us all the right to die in a ditch for lack of health insurance. If we don’t do the right thing and commit suicide, they’re cool with that too.
Unbeievable parade of hateful loons, they’re pretty upfront about how they want to destroy America , destroy everyone’s lives. They’re actually saying it. And this is rude, but wow Ramesh Ponnoru has such a ladyvoice on MSNBC. Seriously, is he gay? I’m gay and I’d be interested to know if such a weasel supporting the party that compares my relationship to bestiality was gay himself. He is screamingly effeminate, to me, seriously curious about who he thinks he’s fooling. Uh, I don’t say this often, but this rightwing dupe is just clearly gay. Mouthing off in the service of the party who can barely stand his skin color, never mind sexuality. What a sad weirdo, sorry. Making his name by defending a party that despises him. Tragic in a way.
Omnes Omnibus
@Arundel:
People keep using tragic when they mean pathetic. A tragic figure is a great person whose greatness contains the seeds of his/her own destruction; a pathetic figure is, well, Ramesh Ponnoru.
ETA: “Sad weirdo” is good though.
xian
i love that romney still can’t crack 25%