This Frederick Burr Opper cartoon from an old issue of Puck (The Onion/Daily Show of its day) seemed like a perfect image to describe the GOP race for the White House. It is just one pratfall after another.
Now, conventional wisdom tells us that it is only a matter of time until Newt takes a fresh pratfall. In fact, waiting for Newt to slip and crash seems to be Romney’s campaign strategy. And this might be a winning plan as Newt has done the “Pan-cake Drop” so many times that you could almost rename the move as the “Gingrich Drop”. OTOH, Newt has taken so many falls that it is hardly newsworthy. The Professor crashes to the ground so often that his supporters just brush it off. They expect him to do pratfalls and could care less when he does.
By contrast, Willard “Mitt” Romney fears the peel–and with good reason. His recent disaster of an interview on Fox News showed that whenever he leaves his Mitt-buble-of-protection he finds himself doing the “Dude Kick”, “Vanderbilt Slide” and “Langtry Twist” with ease. And yet, the Gingrich surge is forcing him to do just that. After almost two years, Willard “Mitt” Romney will finally go on one of the Sunday News shows. Sure it’s Fox News, but even Chris Wallace will be tossing banana peels at Mitt’s feet (and I’ve heard rumors that Willard might even feel forced to grant some non-Fox interviews and even take questions from the press). Also, too, the Des Moines Register debate on the 10th and another Fox News debate on the 15th will litter Willard’s pathway to January with pratfall peril.
The race is on to see which potential GOP candidate will crash and burn next. Newt is the odds on favorite for that roll. I expect that he will have regular slips and that his supporters will not care, but he could have a massive fall that takes him out. And then again, it could be Mittens who implodes. He really has not been tested in this cycle and has barely left his bubble. Newt needs a massive screw-up to get knocked out of the race while a much smaller fuck-up by Romney might take him out.
As for the rest of the field, I expect them to matter very little in the near term. Bachmann and Perry are comic relief. They fall with such regularity that that is all folks expected out of them. Ron Paul is good at avoiding implosion, but the GOP power brokers hate him so much that the only way he’ll be on the ballot in November is as a Libertarian. And that leaves Santorum and Huntsman who hope if they stay in the shadows long enough they’ll be the last two standing come March or April–and then their pratfalls will be noticed (until then, nobody really cares what they do).
The coming weeks should be quite entertaining.
Cheers
amk
How did the press let willard pull a palin on them for two whole years beats me.
erlking
Santorum’s problem…well, his OTHER problem…is that everyone who isn’t a mean, heartless, godbothering scold hates his guts and he doesn’t even poll above 42% with mean, heartless, godbothering scolds. There are no sure bets in this fallen world, but that Rick Santorum will never be president of the United States is pretty goddamned close.
General Stuck
Whether it’s the desperation of wingnut primary voters with terrible choices, and Newt is rising as the best of the worst from that, or from other reasons, it does seem that Newt is being given a pardon for past crimes, from being convicted in the court of wingnut public opinion, that usually is the case his biggest crime was getting caught in the first place. And will have some wide leeway to be his most nutty and naughty self.
Probably just the wingnuts choosing to live and die with a authentic fellow lizard brane, rather than take up with poseurs that the suits have been preaching can win.
One thing seems certain though. The guy might make the 27 percenters all warm and fuzzy inside, but the independent voters, as they did in the 90’s, are likely to despise the fucker even more than liberals.
Villago Delenda Est
What I’m enjoying, more than anything else, is the MSM very deliberately ignoring Ron Paul, no matter how well he polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Outer Mongolia, for that matter.
They give Huntsman and Santorum more coverage than they do Paul.
Jenny
Meanwhile, back in Kansas:
http://obamadiary.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/mg_3445_0.jpg?w=776&h=436
Cat Lady
Yet one of these clowns will be the nominee, although it seems impossible that any of them will be the nominee.
patrick II
I can’t believe that Paul would run as a Libertarian — but I dearly wish he would. With Paul running and taking away at least some of the libertarian vote from the Republicans and Gingrich as the Republican nominee, I am pretty sure Obama would be re-elected.
CT Voter
Gracious. The press? Golly.
Willard will take questions, maybe, depending on how the interview goes with the Roger Ailes crowd.
In the meantime, Willard doesn’t need to do “press conferences”, does he?
Curious that one of the front-runners (sorry, Mittster, it’s been a tough two weeks, dude) is so averse to press conferences. Maybe there’s a flicker of recognition by the Flipster that even he can’t maintain the epic flippery?
Uncanny Valley candidates just have a tough time running, don’t they?
General Stuck
Beyond tragic
The prophet Nostradumbass
@General Stuck: Link doesn’t work.
General Stuck
@The prophet Nostradumbass:
sorry try again
The prophet Nostradumbass
@General Stuck: That is just awful.
dogwood
This entire process is the Republican version of speed dating. Newt might get lucky here. The prom is less than a month away and there are no more eligible bachelors or bachelorettes to meet.
piratedan
its amazing that the R primary has generated all this bandwidth and dead trees and as of yet, not a single vote has been tallied.
sfinny
Did the right blogosphere pay this much attention to the 2008 primary fight of the dems?
Redshift
@piratedan: Well, we’re still at the stage where the judges (donors) are the ones voting people off the island; viewers don’t get to get into the act until the late rounds. I’d say it’s gotten similar coverage to most reality shows at this stage.
Not saying that either one deserves any coverage, but for once the shiny-object-chasing of the media seems to be working in our favor.
General Stuck
More evidence whoever is making the decisions for what OWS will do next, has got their heads screwed on straight. This is brilliant, imo/
The prophet Nostradumbass
@sfinny: I doubt it. I suspect that one reason the lefty blogs are paying so much attention to the GOP field is that the Democrats don’t have a decision to make.
The Dangerman
So, assuming it’s Newt that gets the nomination, does Bill have a conflict? His support of Obama has always been lukewarm to cold (getting in the way of his wife being President might do that to a husband)…
…but Newt was involved in the shenanigans of the 90’s. He might enjoy some payback ;-)
eyelessgame
@patrick II: I am not sure Pa*l would pull more from the Republiclown than he would from Obama. Remember, he’s against torture and war (because they’re things governments do, natch), and in favor of drugs. He could attract firebaggers – I know liberals who are taken in by this creationist, racist goldbug, because he believes governments torturing and making war are wrong (again, because he’s against government, not because he’s against torture or war).
JC
A bit off topic, but I have to say, the comments at The Corner, have been really fun to read, in a gallows kinda way.
They bash Obama sure, that’s taken for granted that he is the WORST PREDIDENT EVERN – the democratic nominee always is – but it’s quite fun to see them go to town on their candidates.
Some examples:
We think the ‘woe is me’ quotient is high over here, over there, it’s even worse!
Rick Massimo
He’s the Wile E. Coyote of American politics. But instead of the magic of animation, his recuperative powers come from hating the right people.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@The Dangerman: Oh, I think Bill would get over the business of Hillary getting beaten pretty quick in those circumstances. I am reminded of Fran Liebowitz, who said her favorite hobby was something like “Lying in bed, smoking, and plotting revenge.”
Yutsano
@JC:
We do?
AnotherBruce
@erlking: I disagree, that Rick Santorum will never be president is more certain than the law of gravity.
amk
@Yutsano: ‘we, here’ = whiny, let’s-primary-obama blogs like dkos, fdl etc.
demz taters
@General Stuck: Related:
Rural Suicides Follow Medicaid Cuts
cthulhu
I keep coming back to whether T-Paw’s decision to drop out so early was clever or stupid. Given what has happened to this point, he would be positioned quite well as an alternative to Gingrich/Romney. But staying in the race and coming in anything worse than a close second in this field would pretty much finish him for any and all future runs for Pres. As it is, it would seem like he can come back in ’16 without being tarnished by association with these clowns. This is the last shot for this bunch (thankfully), except for Paul who seems willing to tilt at this windmill until he physically can’t anymore.
Jewish Steel
Guardian:
I’m an only child and I don’t believe I’ve ever met any of my second cousins so I’ll have to take these folks word for it.
Pseudonym
Santorum can’t even win 27% of the 27%ers.
Hmm, that just made me think of a brilliant idea: a photo/photoshop contest for “We are the 27%.”
Yutsano
@Jewish Steel:
I have a huge tight-knit family (think My Big Fat Greek Wedding just not Greek) and I know a few of them. You don’t really feel too close to these folks, although my mom’s cousin and his wife and daughters are kinda awesome.
S. cerevisiae
Surge to the top with Santorum!
Santorum is rising to the top!
God, Colbert’s writers will be out of a job if he drops out.
Jewish Steel
@Yutsano: And your brother, if you have one?
Sibling relationships are totally baffling to me.
Sargent Pepper's Spray
This really is like the Democratic race in 72 in that no one knows what the hell is going to come out of it, but the sure winner Muskie (read Romney) may crash and burn right out of the gate. What happens if Paul wins in Iowa? That’s a real possibility. I could also see Romney then winning New Hampshire and Gingrich win South Carolina and then it would be off to the races for Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride all the way through the primaries.
If Romney loses New Hampshire to Gingrich though, I don’t see how he recovers.
As a side note, the Obama v Gingrich debates would be like a very surreal Dave Chappelle skit. “Mr. Gingrich, please explain to the audience why you are wearing white robes and a hood tonight.”
gene108
The GOP base is the worst enemy of the GOP Presidential candidates.
Candidates CANNOT run on their records, because at some point, any GOPer in office would have had to GOVERN and thereby do things the base disapproves of, such as raise taxes to improve education due to a court order (Huckabee, 2008), state torture is bad (McCain, 2008), not deport/jail all the illegals in their state and treat some of them as human beings (Perry, 2012), believe in scientific facts (Huntsman, Romney prior to walking Global Warming views back), or introduce something good for the people of a state, such as universal healthcare (Romney, 2012).
I know wealthier people will vote Republican because it is in their self-interest – lower taxes, less enforcement of existing regulations, etc. – and they are pretty upfront about it.
I really don’t know what a middle-class or poor Republican voter wants to get out of their Party or how they can attract candidates with all their stupid purity tests. They really seem to believe giving a tax cut to a rich guy will somehow benefit them more than say better funding for their public schools or government giving money to the states, so their public school can hire back some more teachers.
Anyway, the GOP really should have a “good” shot at winning the Presidency this time around. The GOPers in Congress have done a wonderful job in sabotaging the Obama Administration and making him seem ineffective and unable to get anything done, such as Federal money to states and municipalities to hire back/not fire teachers, police, etc.
Voter discontent is high.
They just have a base that won’t let their candidates meet the American people half-way and acknowledge basic things, such as people benefit from unemployment insurance, public education and other public services that are well run. They really seem to have a long-term death wish, with the direction they are taking their Party in.
In a nutshell, it’s not the GOP field of candidates that are waiting for the next prat-fall to drop, but rather they have no choice because the base keeps throwing banana peels in their way.
Raven
70th Anniversary of the attack at Pearl Harbor.
Frankensteinbeck
I believe it is important to define a slip here. Like you say, Newt screws up regularly, and it doesn’t seem to affect him. Some gaffes tanked candidates, others seemed to have no effect.
The answer is in the Republican voter’s bully mentality. That a candidate screws up is not actually a problem. Being utterly wrong, offensive, stupid, crazy… they don’t mind these things in and of themselves. What they absolutely, utterly cannot abide is being laughed at. When a candidate’s screw up makes him a joke, when they see him no longer being respected, they turn away. The candidate has to make them feel that they’re running with the toughest gang. They LIKE disgust and angry contempt, because they think that’s fear. (Thus, accusations of sexual harassment? No problem. Accusations of a consensual affair? UNACCEPTABLE.)
Newt is rarely laughed at. He’s an angry, abrasive asshole, a natural bully. Romney comes pre-laughed at. So does Santorum.
Ron Paul isn’t a Republican, and they know it. He’s there to make Libertarians feel okay voting Republican.
Cheryl from Maryland
@Raven: Thanks for the link.
JPL
@Raven: My father was on the Nevada. My mother received a postcard on Xmas eve that he was alive.
JGabriel
@amk:
Ratings.
No one even wanted to see an interview with Willard, much less conduct one. I mean, serious snoozefest material, or at least that’s what people expected. So no one bothered.
I suspect more outlets will be requesting question-time with Mitt, now that they know how snippy he gets from the Baier interview.
.
JGabriel
@Frankensteinbeck:
And yet, Newt is often mocked.
.
JGabriel
@Jewish Steel:
Me too, and I have a sibling. I think that’s true for most of us.
.
JGabriel
@Villago Delenda Est:
The thing is, Paul voters are very enthusiastic for him, and are known to have taken actions in the past to bend polls towards their candidate. Early polling support for Paul has never panned out to real votes in earlier primaries (such as 2008).
So, the MSM honestly does have pretty good reasons to ignore Paul unless and until he shows potential in an actual primary, and not just in polls.
.
Omnes Omnibus
@JGabriel:
Yeah, I don’t get that at all.
JGabriel
Guardian via Jewish Steel:
Yikes!
I think I would have responded, “Estranged maternal uncle, known to all his kids’ cousins as ‘The Bad Mad Dad’.”
.
Raven
@JPL: Wow! My old man was on the USS Crosby. He was in front of the YMCA in San Diego when the news came. He said they went to sea the next day with some crew members that had been in the Navy one day.
You probably know that the Survivors Association is disbanding today. My dad’s destroyer group did the same 2 years ago.
JGabriel
a href=”#comment-2918339″>AnotherBruce:
Well, it’s obviously more certain than the speed of a neutrino right now.
.
Narcissus
S. cerevisiae:
“Santorum spills over the Rim!”
Raven
USS Nevada BB-36
martha
@Raven: My FIL’s group disbanded a few years ago as well. When my husband contacted them early this year to tell them of his passing he had a nice conversation with one of the sons who’d kept it going. He was on the Chauncey.
Raven
@martha: They served in quite a few operations together.
Raven
Nice logo for the Chauncey!
Snowball
@sfinny:
Oh yeah, they went out of their way to keep the process going as long as possible. When it looked like Obama was going to win, they started cheering for Clinton.
Outside the blogosphere, Limbaugh even encouraged his listeners to vote for Clinton in the states that had open primaries. Heck, Clinton even got an interview on FoxNews with Bill O’Reilly, which was full of softball questions.
JPL
@Raven: I didn’t know until after I had seen Tora, Tora, Tora. WWII was a such a traumatic time for my mom, she didn’t allow a lot of discussion about it. My brother has the original bulletins from the Nevada.
My dad retired after 28 years.
Raven
@JPL: @JPL: I imagine they were lucky to have gotten the word he was safe as quickly as that. A great memory. My dad and two uncles were on the Crosby when the war started. One was judged too important to the administrative side of the war effort and stayed at Navy Pier the entire war. The other was struck by seasickness and, even after being transferred to a bigger craft, ended up staying stateside. I have a bunch of VMail’s from them to dad and the fear for him is palpable between the lines. On mothers day, 1945 dad sent my grandmother a money order for a gift. When he died my stepmother asked me if I wanted a small table that had belong to grandma. After I shipped it here I found a letter from my uncle sent to my dad when they knew the war was over and that he was coming home safe. In it he notes that the table she bought with his gift was “the nicest thing she ever owned”. I also found the money order receipt with “Mothers Day 1945” written on it in red pencil. I had the letter and the receipt nicely framed and it sits on the wall over the table.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL: @Raven:
And my uncle was on the USS Tennessee (I think that was the ship but would have to confirm with my cousin). I didn’t even learn that until after Uncle Doug died about 12 years ago, but he was there during the attacks.
Raven
@SiubhanDuinne: Lot of em didn’t talk about it much. My dad opened up a lot more after I came home myself.
catclub
@sfinny: I bet if they did, they were concentrating their ire in December 2007 on Hillary. It was only when it looked like Obama was going to win that Rush Limbaugh encouraged his listeners to vote for Hillary in open primaries.
jibeaux
@Jewish Steel: Weird, I’d have gone to “creepy uncle who never remembers your birthday” for both of those guys.
rikyrah
the thing is…Newt is SLIME
so, if you’re voting for Newt, you’ve made your peace with the SLIME.
there is nothing that can come out about Newt that would make you give him a ‘ second look’.
so, I believe Willard’s in trouble
Punchy
Here’s what I want to know — just how awkward is it going to be for Rove, Scarborough, etc. to start pimping and supporting Newt after he wins the nominee? I mean, they’re excoriating him now, but cant possibly support Obama, right?
So all those “he’s not qualified to be the Pres!” quotes will all have to be rewritten with the “not” removed, right?
Raven
@Punchy: That ship has sailed for Scarborough. He’s hammered Nute everyday and he can’t go back.
amk
@Raven: Not so fast. You can see the morning blow ‘evolving’ on newt in this gopolitico piece. Amazing how this uncouth blowhard goes from anti-newt to pro-newt all within a 300 word (?) piece.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69798.html
smintheus
I don’t know that Newt will lose support no matter what he does. He’s been given a pass for things that would sink almost any other candidate. Plus he’s willing to play the racism card in a way that probably bolsters his support immeasurably. He’s back to calling Obama ‘the food stamp president’, which the 27 percenters love.
Catsy
@General Stuck:
The wingnut collective not only rehabilitated but revered Oliver Motherfucking North–a legendary scumbag who colluded with Reagan to commit treason against the United States and unrepentantly lie to Congress about it. For many of them, yes, North’s worst offense was that he got caught–and he is now one of their elder statesmen.
There is no one so loathsome that wingnuts will not forgive them for the right crimes against the right people in service of their tribe or ideology. Newt Gingrich is just the latest in a long line of scumbags that fit this bill.
ed drone
Did you intend the pun involved in “role” = “roll” there, since we’re talking about banana peels and falls?
If so, nicely done.
If not, nicely done, but no credit.
Ed