I think Mitt Romney is going to be the GOP nominee, despite his poor showing in Iowa. While I’m aware that he’s claiming he didn’t compete there, I do think the results show in Iowa show a certain lack of enthusiasm for Mitt, but I’m sticking with him. This is complete uninformed punditry on my part: in other words, a guess. If it’s Perry, please feel free to jeer at me. I’m hoping for Bachmann, but I know I won’t get that lucky.
That’s why I think this PPP poll is interesting. I thought Romney would be stronger in Colorado than he appears to be:
Barack Obama isn’t terribly popular in Colorado. But he has healthy leads over all of his potential Republican opponents there anyway and this is looking like one of the states he flipped in 2008 that’s most likely to remain in his column for 2012.
In spite of that Obama still has solid leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. Only Mitt Romney improves on John McCain’s 9 point margin of defeat in the state, trailing Obama by 7 points at 48-41. That’s almost identical to the 47-41 lead we found for Obama in February, interesting considering the drop in his approval numbers since that time. Against the rest of the GOP field Obama holds a double digit advantage: he’s up 12 on Michele Bachmann at 51-39, 13 on Rick Perry at 51-38, and 16 on both Herman Cain and Sarah Palin at 51-35 and 54-38 respectively.
How can Obama be doing so well despite his own lack of popularity in Colorado? Voters may not like him but they like him a heck of a lot more than any of the Republican candidates. Cain’s net favorability is -10 at 20/30, Perry’s is -14 at 24/38, Romney’s is -21 at 30/51, Bachmann’s is -22 at 28/50, and Palin’s is -27 at 33/60. Obama’s definitely benefiting from a ‘lesser of two evils’ mindset.
I think the most telling stat about the weakness of the GOP candidate field is this- despite Obama’s 38/56 approval with independents he still has the upper hand against every Republican with them- a 2 point lead over Romney, 12 point advantage over Perry, 14 over Bachmann, 17 against Palin, and 19 against Cain. They’re down on Obama but they’re not buying the alternatives either. The last few weeks have been some of the darkest ones of the Obama administration and for all that he still has a 7 point lead over his strongest potential opponent in Colorado.
If you’re in or know Colorado, do you know why people there don’t like Romney? Besides the fact that people in general don’t seem to like Romney, because Romney swings wildly between whining and pleading and belligerent nonsensical strings of fighting words. I don’t know a thing about Colorado. Was I just wrong to think he might do okay there?