Antidisestablishmentarianism

Nate Silver says the Ames Straw Poll “has a pretty good predictive track record”. Stu Rotheberg (via) and Joe Scar say that if freak show candidates — Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann — do well in it, then it likely has no predictive value.

Needless to say, I’ll always take Nate Silver’s word over that of any puffed-up pundit. Now, I think all the fried-butter-on-a-stick-eating-contest stuff is stupid, but that’s not Rothenberg’s and Scarborough’s objection here. They’re upset because as moderate, establishment Republicans, they don’t like what’s happening to their party. Keith Humphreys of SameFacts:

In 2010, the Tea Party candidates were running as much against the Republican Establishment as they were against Democrats. And today, after the sort of serious people the Establishment would have loved (Thune, Daniels) declined to run, Governor Perry joins Gingrich, Pawlenty, Paul, Bachmann, Romney, Santorum and Cain in a circular-firing-squad-cum-rugby scrum. Never in my lifetime has the Republican Party nomination process involved so many divisive figures, second-rate figures and genuine loons, nor evoked such a lack of broadly shared enthusiasm for any one candidate.

Expect the fighting between the teahadists and the old-schoolers to get louder. Personally, I see the old-schoolers surrendering, which is why I think Perry is a more likely nominee than Romney.

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138 replies
  1. 1
    Xboxershorts says:

    You forgot “NoPain” Cain

  2. 2
    Quiddity says:

    There once was a Texan named Perry,
    whose brain was considerably airy.
    Thought he’d win in a race,
    with a white Christian face.
    But he lost, and the country was merry.

    (At least I hope that’s how it turns out.)

  3. 3
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    In 2010, the Tea Party candidates were running as much against the Republican Establishment as they were against Democrats.

    I’ve always wondered about this bit of CW, and the idea that the baggers have the Republican party by the balls with the ability to primary people. Bennett, Inglis, Castle, and…who else now? (I’m talking about incumbents, not just establishment selections for open seats) You’d think if the Tea Party was so outraged at “Establishment Republicans”, at least some of them would have chosen to run without that little {R} before their name.

  4. 4
    Yuppers says:

    Anti-distinctly-minty…

  5. 5
    Chet says:

    @Xboxershorts:

    Don’t forget Tim Pawlenty-o’-Nothin’.

  6. 6
    trollhattan says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    Right. As though they’d ever vote for a Democrat to “teach that RINO a lesson”? That will be the day.

    At least we can continue to thank the baggers for keeping the Senate in Democrat hands.

  7. 7
    MazeDancer says:

    Watched about five minutes of Perry’s announcement and simply couldn’t take it anymore. Besides the lying and the sick spew of Obama hate, the W Effect was even worse then remembered.

    He sounds so much like W in voice, mannerisms, and meanness it brings both terror and knee-jerk nausea. Please may this W Effect send voters running away in droves.

    And if he has no trouble making up stuff now, and no hesitation to attack the President with relished venom and lies out the gate, imagine a year from now. “Tar Baby” will seem tame.

    Maybe it’s because I’m Southern, or maybe in spite of it, but a hate-filled, lying white man with a thick Southern accent spouting snarling hatred about a man of color is scary stuff to me. Scariest of all is how some people will be thrilled that this nasty smarm gets to be cheered in the open. And that “the Lord” is on its side.

    Blessed are the peacemakers. Wish they would run for office.

  8. 8
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    The cool thing is, the title is actually fairly accurate.

    “Traditional” Rethugs are fighting to keep the establishment, under assault by the teatards for whom traditional Rethuglicanism isn’t thuggish enough for them.

  9. 9
    Xecky Gilchrist says:

    Never in my lifetime has the Republican Party nomination process involved so many divisive figures, second-rate figures and genuine loons…

    Somebody was asleep through Clinton’s tenure and 2008.

    …nor evoked such a lack of broadly shared enthusiasm for any one candidate.

    OK, that I’ll buy.

    ETA: Personally, I see the old-schoolers surrendering

    Sooner or later they’ll recognize there’s no difference in how a teatard or establishment Rep will govern (slash and burn), just how they posture.

  10. 10
    gbear says:

    Personally, I see the old-schoolers surrendering, which is why I think Perry is a more likely nominee than Romney.

    Well when the choice is either surrender or get shot, surrender doesn’t sound so bad.

  11. 11
    me says:

    Nate Silver says the Ames Straw Poll “has a pretty good predictive track record”.

    …about who wins the Iowa caucus. He doesn’t extend that to who wins the nomination.

  12. 12
    CalD says:

    Nate Silver says the Ames Straw Poll “has a pretty good predictive track record”.

    You can judge for yourself:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....traw-poll/

    … but I think my response would be, predictive of what?

  13. 13
    gbear says:

    @MazeDancer:

    He sounds so much like W in voice, mannerisms, and meanness it brings both terror and knee-jerk nausea. Please may this W Effect send voters running away in droves.

    That’s my reaction too. I think Perry’s going to dredge up everyone’s memories of how bad the W years were. It won’t work in his favor against Obama.

  14. 14
    Dennis SGMM says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    You’d think if the Tea Party was so outraged at “Establishment Republicans”, at least some of them would have chosen to run without that little {R} before their name.

    If they dropped their affiliation with the R’s they wouldn’t be able to get on any ballot. They never will. Could you imagine the carnage they’d visit on each other if they tried to organize anything larger than a picnic?

  15. 15
    Stillwater says:

    which is why I think Perry is a more likely nominee than Romney.

    Romney has no sex-appeal. He’s not ruddy. Perry gets the nomination on the ‘secession is a state’s right’ plank, and effectively shatters the party down ideological lines, with the principled ‘keep government outa Medicare’ TP purists drowning out the flacid ‘more pork = smaller government’ GOPers.

    It’ll be fun to watch.

  16. 16
    Chris says:

    Expect the fighting between the teahadists and the old-schoolers to get louder. Personally, I see the old-schoolers surrendering

    Sure. The Tea Party Movement has the base’s votes, and the elites’ money (astroturfing with Koch & Co’s $$$ is what set them up in the first place). The so-called establishment has neither, and nothing to match them.

    Plus, what we’re calling “the old-schoolers” are pretty much sacrificial lambs being blamed for the party’s past failures and tossed away to help rebrand it. Despite the teabaggers’ obsession with RINO liberal elites sabotaging the Glorious Revolution, I don’t see much of an actual organized opposition to the far right.

  17. 17
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    When Scarborough was elected, he was an angry young radical-rightist. Now he’s a moderate, and I think you’re right about that, as scary as that is. With the help of the Establishment Media, who would probably scold Scarborough for being so mean to a Heartlander like Bachmann, they’ve successfully dragged the center to the right of Eisenhower, Nixon, maybe even Reagan.

    Rothenberg’s a smarmy prick. Can’t stand him. Just felt the need to type that.

  18. 18
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    @Stillwater:

    Romney has no sex-appeal.

    Tell that to Roger Simon, Tweety and whoever it was writing about Romney radiating “alpha male-ness” at the other night’s freak show.

    On Scarborough: Does anyone remember if he joined the right on Terri Schiavo? He’s a hardcore Catholic from Florida, seems to me that was a like roadapple to a fly for him

  19. 19
    quannlace says:

    …nor evoked such a lack of broadly shared enthusiasm for any one candidate.

    OK, that I’ll buy.

    Actually heard a conservative radio host going on about the Iowa debate, and lamenting about how bad it was.

  20. 20
    Chris says:

    @Xecky Gilchrist:

    Sooner or later they’ll recognize there’s no difference in how a teatard or establishment Rep will govern (slash and burn), just how they posture.

    This.

    2008 was the first election I got to vote in, and I was curious to watch the GOP side of it since I knew McCain’s reputation was that of a moderate. By the end of the election cycle, it was obvious that no matter what McCain or Romney actually believed (if anything), they’d need to make so many concessions to the lunatics in order to be able to govern that you might as well have elected an out-and-out lunatic.

  21. 21
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    I’d forgotten about “Scarborough Country”, back when MSNBC was still transitioning between FoxLite and Olbermannism

    JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST: Terri Schiavo‘s fight for life enters its final stage, as family members vow not to give up. Tonight, we are going to have emotional interview with her sister on how the family is coping, as Terri enters her 11 day without food or water, all this as the firestorm to save Terri grows.

  22. 22
    Spaghetti Lee says:

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Sometimes I think the media talking about male Republicans is more homoerotic than actual gay porn.

  23. 23
    hilts says:

    Summary of Rick Perry controversies compiled by the Austin American Stateman

    Appointments: Perry often gives the state’s most prestigious appointments to major campaign donors.

    Convergen: A $4.5 million state grant, awarded outside the state’s usual review processes, landed in the hands of a company co-founded by a Perry contributor and close friend.

    Economic development funds: Perry is a champion of using taxpayer money to lure businesses to Texas, but critics point to links between the companies that get those grants and Perry’s campaign.

    Perry’s housing. Taxpayer costs associated with Perry’s rental home in western Travis County have sometimes totaled $10,000 per month.

    HPV: In 2007, Perry issued an order saying schoolgirls should be vaccinated against the human papillomavirus. A broad coalition of legislators criticized the order and Perry eventually abandoned it.

    Willingham criminal case: The state executed Cameron Todd Willingham in 2004 for setting a fire that killed his children, but the controversy over whether the state may have executed an innocent man has only grown in the years since.

    h/t http://www.statesman.com/news/.....rick-perry

  24. 24
    Roger Moore says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    Sometimes I think the media talking about male Republicans is more homoerotic than actual gay porn.

    FTFY.

  25. 25
    cat48 says:

    @MazeDancer:

    I watched the entire speech & it was hateful with deliberate lies. Stomach turning, but a lot of folks really, really hate the president and it will appeal to a certain class of voters. Halperin said that Perry would be almost equal in talent as a pol as Obama is but I don’t see it myself. He delivered the speech well, but I think Obama must have spoiled me. Obama does not lie like that and he’s not a negative person. Some white males will probably like Perry. I can’t leave America, but he would make me want to!

  26. 26
    The Dangerman says:

    Perry wants to end Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid; I don’t see how that plays in Peoria.

  27. 27
    Loneoak says:

    I’ve been thinking of nicknames for the clown car inhabitants:

    Buy Eyes
    Flip Flops
    God Hair
    Gold Bug
    Frothy Mix
    Tiffany’s Credit
    Who?

  28. 28
    Dennis SGMM says:

    Am I the only one who desperately misses Molly Ivins right now?

  29. 29
    Chris says:

    @cat48:

    Stomach turning, but a lot of folks really, really hate the president

    The President, and everyone he represents. Black people, immigrants, Muslims, union voters, poor people, middle class liberals and anyone else who doesn’t fit their image of What America Ought To Look Like. The President’s the channel for all of that, but anyone elected with the support of “these people” will gather most of the same hate.

  30. 30
    Professor says:

    They all want to privatize Social Security, Medicare and medicaid. Why?

  31. 31
    srv says:

    If Romney were antidisentablismentarian, would he convert to Catholicism or Episcopalian?

  32. 32
    Ian says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:
    a couple others to mind
    Ken Buck over Jane Norton (Colorado)
    Carl Paladino in New York Gov
    McMahon in Conn

    And im sure it happened in a whole plethora of house races

  33. 33
  34. 34
    Dennis SGMM says:

    @Professor:

    They all want to privatize Social Security, Medicare and medicaid. Why?

    Because they’re heavily invested in cat food futures?

  35. 35
    Professor says:

    If you are a governor, to get the presidency, you have to execute some poor soul.

  36. 36
    gnomedad says:

    Washington is broken, and we’re going to drown it in a bathtub.

  37. 37
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @srv:

    If Romney were antidisentablismentarian, would he convert to Catholicism or Episcopalian?

    Yes.

  38. 38
    Kane says:

    Perry’s team consists of former Bushies, Gramm acolytes, and Swift-boat financiers. One almost feels sorry for what is about to hit Romney. The Mitt is about to hit the fan.

  39. 39
    Jose Padilla says:

    Perry’s as much a corporate whore as Romney. Plan is to have Perry split the nutjob vote so Bachmann doesn’t get the nomination (straight up I think she kicks Romney’s ass). After Romney’s secured the nomination, he’ll name Perry as his VP and Perry will be a. attack dog and b. liason to the nutjobs.

  40. 40
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Kane: Almost.

  41. 41
    Yutsano says:

    @Dennis SGMM:

    Am I the only one who desperately misses Molly Ivins right now?

    She’d be splitting between total conniptions while warning us mightily about Perry while mocking every little foible of the Perry interregnum in Texas. And having a grand old time doing it. Can we haz zombie Molly Ivins plz?

  42. 42
    Ian says:

    @hilts:

    HPV: In 2007, Perry issued an order saying schoolgirls should be vaccinated against the human papillomavirus. A broad coalition of legislators criticized the order and Perry eventually abandoned it

    I’m sure he said it in a very crass way, but I think that this isn’t a bad idea. HPV ain’t fun

  43. 43
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Ian: It isn’t a bad idea at all, but, among some on the right, HPV immunization is just going to turn young girls into sluts. He will be attacked for it during the primaries.

  44. 44
    Roger Moore says:

    @Professor:

    They all want to privatize Social Security, Medicare and medicaid. Why?

    Because their backers want to profit from those programs and privatizing is the way to make it happen. If Social Security is privatized, Wall Street will make a ton of money on management fees and transaction fees, and even more on scams targeting unsophisticated investors. If Medicare and Medicaid are privatized, the Health Care industry will be able to drive up prices. Our Galtian Overlords can’t stand the idea of all that money out there and them not being able to skim off a goodly portion for themselves.

  45. 45
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    Romney has no sex-appeal.

    Tweety fucking splooges at the mere thought of those shoulders you can “land a 737 on”.

  46. 46

    @Jose Padilla:

    That’s pretty much the best case scenario for Republicans. Also too Perry on the ticket will signal the official blessing from the dominionists.

  47. 47
    Kane says:

    Even some of the people at FOX have been a little out of character. The flake comment was somewhat surprising. And Limbaugh criticized the FOX debate for being too harsh. I don’t think FOX is moderate, but I do believe that they share MorningJoe’s sentiments in wanting their side to have the candidate with the best chance of winning.

  48. 48
    The Dangerman says:

    @Professor:

    They all want to privatize Social Security, Medicare and medicaid. Why?

    If it was the New Deal or an advancement after the New Deal, it must be ended (with the possible exception of Civil Rights, though there are a few like Rand Paul that want that ended, too).

  49. 49
  50. 50
    Hal says:

    @Ian:

    He issued a mandate requiring the vaccination (with and opt-out.) All for his buddies at Merck:

    On February 2, 2007, Perry issued an executive order mandating that Texas girls receive HPV vaccine that protects against some strains of the human papilloma virus, a cause of cervical cancer.[65] The order provided vaccination free of charge to those who were not covered by insurance.[66] The order included an opt-out provision for parents. At the time of the order, Gardasil, a newly approved drug manufactured by Merck was the only FDA approved HPV vaccine. The move made national headlines,[67] and apparent financial connections between Merck and Perry were reported by news outlets, such as a $6,000 campaign contribution and Merck’s hiring of former Perry Chief of Staff Mike Toomey to handle its Texas lobbying work and Perry’s “current chief of staff’s mother-in-law, Texas Republican state Rep. Dianne White Delisi [as] state director for Women in Government.”[65][68]
    Perry’s decision has been criticized by some social conservatives and parents due to concerns about possible moral implications of the vaccine and safety concerns. On February 22, 2007, a group of families sued in an attempt to block Perry’s executive order.[69] Perry’s order has also been criticized for the price of the vaccine: approximately $360 in Texas.[66]
    On May 9, 2007, Perry allowed a bill to go into law that would undo his executive order.

  51. 51
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @hilts:

    HPV: In 2007, Perry issued an order saying schoolgirls should be vaccinated against the human papillomavirus. A broad coalition of legislators criticized the order and Perry eventually abandoned it

    This is a perfect example of cretinous, vindictive, cruel stupid of the Jeebofascists. Vaccinating those schoolgirls would remove a possible punishment that their asshole imaginary friend could deliver on girls who dared to have sex.

    There is no Hell hot enough to adequately deal with vicious assholes like these. None.

  52. 52
    Yutsano says:

    @James E. Powell: Here’s the problem: the Dominionists cannot accept a Mormon. They are considered a cult at best and evil apostates at the worst. Perry joining up with them could have less than the desired effect: they could end up rejecting the whole mess and sitting it out because they cannot legitimize a Mormon.

    Willard has two big issues: he has no core of principals beyond whatever he thinks he needs to do to become President and Perry just undercut a big portion of his fundraising base because the money folks think Perry is much more malleable. I can’t really see a scenario where he prevails. And taking second chair after trying twice would be too humiliating.

  53. 53
    Professor says:

    Please before they rush off to privatize your social security, please advise them to read about what happened to the UK citizens who rushed into the private sector. Please read about EQUITABLE LIFE. This company lost them billions of pounds.

  54. 54
    burnspbesq says:

    @Dennis SGMM:

    Am I the only one who desperately misses Molly Ivins right now?

    Not hardly (as she would say if she were here). I loved Molly like she was kinfolks.

  55. 55
    gogol's wife says:

    @cat48:

    Haven’t read the whole thread, but what made my stomach turn this morning was the front page “news” article in the New York Times that’s basically a campaign ad for Perry. They seem to have chosen their candidate.

  56. 56
    eemom says:

    Nothing really new here, but — yes, virginia, teatards really are ‘tards.

  57. 57
    gnomedad says:

    @Kane:

    And Limbaugh criticized the FOX debate for being too harsh.

    Well, yeah. Fox’s job is to promote Republicans, not challenge them.

  58. 58
    sparky says:

    i have a hard time seeing the establishment surrender. it’s one thing to have freak shows elected to Congress via primaries. it’s something else to mount a coherent national campaign. even after she was muzzled Sarah P cost the Rs plenty, and i rather doubt they are eager for that again.

    also, the Rs need cash. bales of it. and that comes from the Establishment.

  59. 59
    Kane says:

    What’s the over/under on the number of media stories about Perry’s boots?

    And what’s the over/under on the number of times Halperin will lick those boots?

  60. 60
    Bill Murray says:

    And today, after the sort of serious people the Establishment would have loved (Thune, Daniels) declined to run,

    Thune is not a serious person the establishment would love unless Perry is too. Thune is Perry without the ability to legally have people killed. Dumb, fundamentalist with good hair. The main difference is between being in the House and Senate (Thune) and Governor (Perry). Thune’s signature legislative accomplishment was to change a bill so that the company for whom he had lobbied (and was paid ~%5 million) would be eligible for a program that paid $100s of millions. I guess that might make him more serious than Perry

  61. 61
    boss bitch says:

    I read that Texans don’t like Perry. Is this true? Did they like W when he was Governor? Did Texans support his run for the presidency?

    Perry will bring out the worst of the worst. I think Americans need a reminder of the hate and extremism that is still out there.

  62. 62

    @Dennis SGMM: And as the great Molly Ivins once noted:

    Next time I tell you someone from Texas should not be president of the United States, please pay attention.

  63. 63
    Chris says:

    @Jose Padilla:

    Perry’s as much a corporate whore as Romney. Plan is to have Perry split the nutjob vote so Bachmann doesn’t get the nomination (straight up I think she kicks Romney’s ass). After Romney’s secured the nomination, he’ll name Perry as his VP and Perry will be a. attack dog and b. liason to the nutjobs.

    Oh. That’s VERY possible.

  64. 64
    MazeDancer says:

    @cat48:

    I can’t leave America, but he would make me want to!

    Perry as President – and may all heaven and all Goddesses forbid that happening – would mean America no longer exists.

    The country still hasn’t survived W’s legacy. Perry would just strip mine the nation for his pals until there’s nothing left. And then institute the next phase of making The Handmaid’s Tale a reality.

    Feeling entitled to use little girl’s bodies for his friends gain at the stroke of a pen is just a harbinger.

    The violation of civil rights and human rights by the government telling female children what must happen with their bodies is so heinous. Cannot believe that these “get gov off our backs” types thought it was A-OK.

    Also don’t think so called “middle ground” folks will like the idea of executive orders controlling their daughters. Vaccines are controversial even beyond the “executive mandate”.

    @Villago Delenda Est: There is no Hell hot enough to adequately deal with vicious assholes like these. None.

    And please may we not have to live in one, on this planet, of their making.

  65. 65
    Roger Moore says:

    @Kane:

    And what’s the over/under on the number of times Halperin will lick those boots?

    I think he’s going to be applying his tongue a bit higher than the boots.

  66. 66
    The Sheriff's A Ni- says:

    Romney’s path to the nomination was always going to be in more ‘moderate’ primaries: The Northeast, the Great Lakes, the mid-Atlantic, and the Pacific Coast. Wait for the rest of the field to winnow itself out, then take enough in the remaining primaries by playing Captain Electable compared to the survivor to work his way to the nom.

    Perry may be a bigger stumbling block, especially now that the Republicans are frantically handing out pom-poms hand over fist to a horse race starved media. Buuuuut if today is any indication and Goodhair’s going to double down on being Dubya 2, I’m not entirely sure that’s going to play in the Rust Belt.

    Regardless, I think Mittens, Perry, and the money men are all missing the greater threat: Ron Paul. If you had told me a couple months ago that he’d be in line to win Iowa, I’d have said you were nuts. And yet today its looking like he just might. And all the media poo-poohing over Iowa suddenly being irrelevant because an unapproved candidate won isn’t going to gloss it over either.

    I starting to think Paul’s on to something – not anything good, mind you – and I think he’s far more of a threat than anyone in the GOP thinks.

  67. 67
    Violet says:

    @Yutsano:

    And taking second chair after trying twice would be too humiliating.

    What would Mittens even bring to a campaign if he got the VP nod? Most VP candidates are there to fill holes in the main candidate’s resume (Biden, foreign affairs experience, for example) or to bring in a region or constituency (Palin, women; Edwards, the southern vote). What would Romney bring? The Mormon vote? They’ll already vote for the Republican, so the nominee doesn’t exactly need them. I don’t see anyone going for Mittens as the VP. Plus, he’d have the stench of failure all over him. Not a winning combination.

    I see Rubio as a popular VP choice. If he isn’t the VP nominee candidate, he’ll certainly be on anyone’s short list.

  68. 68
    Jim, Foolish Literalist says:

    Am I the only one who desperately misses Molly Ivins right now?

    At least a couple times a week, when I see some buffoonery in politics or even more so when I hear/read some smug “both sides are playing politics” I curse the god I don’t believe in for taking her so soon and so horribly.

  69. 69

    @Bill Murray:

    Can you elaborate on that Thune business, or link?

  70. 70
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Chris: I dunno. I don’t see Perry willing to be second banana like that. He has a huge ego.

    Whoever comes out as the candidate, especially IMHO if it’s Romney, VP will be someone like Bob McDonnell or Marco Rubio.

  71. 71
    Pap Finn says:

    I may live to regret these words (I didn’t take Bush seriously either, back in 2000), but I can’t help myself: isn’t all this hosannahing and slobbering over a cartoonish Dubya retread like Perry just an index of Rethuglican desperation? Is the electorate really stupid and vicious enough to put another brain-damaged, chest-thumping shitkicker in the White House just 4 years after the last one departed, leaving nothing but wreckage and piled corpses in his wake?

    Wait, don’t answer that…

  72. 72
    Yutsano says:

    @Violet:

    I see Rubio as a popular VP choice

    That would be a classic GOP blunder. Put up your token minority in hopes that all members of said minority will flock to support him regardless of policy or internal differences within said minority. We saw this cynicism play out in 2008. As I recall it ended poorly for them.

    @FlipYrWhig: Yes, all the buzz about Rubio is because of his “youthful enthusiasm”. Remind me when the GOP cared about anyone under 65 again?

  73. 73
    FlipYrWhig says:

    Speaking of Rubio, is there any politician whose star has fallen faster _not due to scandal_ than Charlie Christ’s?

  74. 74
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Yutsano: It’s token minority, certainly, but also a pol from a key state and one who provides a glimmer of youthful enthusiasm.

  75. 75
    Uncle Clarence Thomas says:

    .
    .
    @boss bitch:

    I think Americans need a reminder of the hate and extremism that is still out there.

    This is so true. It is definitely one notch worse than balloon-juice.com.
    .
    .

  76. 76
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    I’ve always wondered about this bit of CW, and the idea that the baggers have the Republican party by the balls with the ability to primary people. Bennett, Inglis, Castle, and…who else now?

    Linda Murkowski lost to (Tea/Douche)bag Joe Miller, but she pulled a Lieberman and recovered.

  77. 77
    Violet says:

    @FlipYrWhig:

    I don’t see Perry willing to be second banana like that. He has a huge ego.

    Perry was Lt. Gov. in Texas and only moved up when W. became Pres. I know Lt. Gov. is where the power is, but it’s still not the official head of the state. So there’s precedent for taking the lower rung slot. Plus it would set him up perfectly to run in 2016.

    @Yutsano:
    Definitely a classic GOP pandering blunder. Doesn’t mean they won’t try it, though.

  78. 78
    KG says:

    @gnomedad: no, no, no… Fox’s job is to promote the “proper” Republicans and to embarrass and/or harass the improper Republicans. The problem Fox has right now is they aren’t even sure who the proper and improper Republicans are anymore.

    @The Sheriff’s A Ni-: It’s Romney’s nomination to lose, always has been. He’s going to win New Hampshire and Nevada, Bachmann (or maybe Paul) wins Iowa and Bachmann or Perry wins South Carolina. After that, it’s at best a three person race. But Romney is leading in a lot of States with big delegate counts, and when it becomes more of a national campaign, his money is going to come into play.

  79. 79
    Yutsano says:

    @FlipYrWhig:

    Linda Lisa Murkowski

    FTFY. The rest of your point stands though. Too bad she feels the need to vote total GOP after they fucked her over though.

    @Violet:

    Definitely a classic GOP pandering blunder. Doesn’t mean they won’t try it, though.

    Oh sure they will. But then they run into a Sophie’s choice about which constituency to piss off by choosing a VP. They can’t cover all their bases here, not even with Rubio. IIRC he’s Catholic.

  80. 80
    PeakVT says:

    @Yutsano: I don’t know about younger Latinos, but a lot of older ones are pretty conservative. Having a Latino on the ticket, even if he is a very white and upper class one, will bring some over.

    More importantly, putting Rubio on the ticket at the convention may be enough to lock up Florida if it is still in play at that time. Denying those electoral votes to Obama, especially after the Obama campaign has put money into the state, may be a good move even if tips gives a smaller state to Obama.

  81. 81
    Martin says:

    I think Iowa should double down and instead of the poll, just have a fried-butter-on-a-stick contest. Most eaten in 10 minutes, no barfing, wins the GOP nomination. We’d wind up with Takeru Kobayashi as the GOP nominee, which would be pretty awesome overall.

  82. 82
    Roger Moore says:

    @Martin:

    We’d wind up with Takeru Kobayashi as the GOP nominee, which would be pretty awesome overall a massive improvement for the country.

    FTFY.

  83. 83
    Yutsano says:

    @PeakVT:

    Having a Latino on the ticket, even if he is a very white and upper class one Cuban, will bring some over.

    Adjusted that for you. There is no monolithic Latino vote by a long shot. If there were Texas would have been blue two elections ago. And a lot of the Latin American countries have huge animosities towards each other. Ask a Mexican about Puerto Ricans some time. And make sure your shields are up.

    (snagging lunch, back inna few)

  84. 84
    KG says:

    @PeakVT: They need someone with broader appeal, to win with the barest of majorities in the Electoral College, the GOP has to flip Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio; while holding everything else. And based on the polls, they could be losing a couple of states this time around…

  85. 85
    Derf says:

    Where are the breathless wide eyed spit spewing headlines about the poll numbers? If Obama and/or Dems edge down a hair you people are all over it like stink on shit.

    Why does that never happen when it’s the other way around? About the only thing that happens is more posts from Chicken Little Cole about what he’s eating and drinking, the color of his bowel movement this morning, and what his dumb pets are doing.

  86. 86
    gogol's wife says:

    @Derf:

    Okay, I’ll bite. What happened with the poll numbers?

  87. 87
    Hal says:

    Ok, I readily admit I’m going to hell for this, but saw this over at slog, and couldn’t stop laughing:

    Newsweek should have used this as the Bachman cover; then Jon Stewart could really pitch a fit…

    http://slog.thestranger.com/sl.....le-in-iowa

  88. 88
    J. Michael Neal says:

    @Loneoak:

    I’ve been thinking of nicknames for the clown car inhabitants

    I’m trying to put together a list of Which Historical Dictator Is He?

    Mitt Romney –
    Rick Perry – Pope Alexander VI
    Michele Bachmann –
    Tim Pawlenty – Napoleon III
    Herman Cain – Emperor Norton
    Rick Santorum – Francisco Franco
    Jon Huntsman –
    Gary Johnson –
    John Bolton –
    Ron Paul –

    Help me complete the list.

  89. 89
    aisce says:

    @ gogol’s wife

    it doesn’t matter. this isn’t even a cole post.

    derf is just throwing a tantrum in the face of his act’s obsolescence now that cole has mentally checked out for the summer.

  90. 90
    gogol's wife says:

    @J. Michael Neal:

    I am NOT going to make Michele Catherine the Great of Russia. Catherine was much nicer.

  91. 91
    Derf says:

    @gogol’s wife: You will never know by hanging around this blog.

    This blog is all about the cup being half empty. 24/7

  92. 92
    J. Michael Neal says:

    @Uncle Clarence Thomas:

    This is so true. It is definitely one notch worse than balloon-juice.com.

    We’ll try harder in the future, asshole.

  93. 93
    gogol's wife says:

    @Derf:

    You could have answered me, couldn’t you?

  94. 94
    Derf says:

    @aisce: Always happy to hear opinions from my groupies

  95. 95
    J. Michael Neal says:

    @gogol’s wife: I was thinking that Michele is one of those small time African strongmen who have delusions of being god and spew out some truly wacky quotes.

    Either that, or Hugo Chavez, just to piss her off.

  96. 96
    Carl Nyberg says:

    Is it surrendering if you get beat?

    I don’t see the Old School hucksters being able to manage the rubes anymore.

  97. 97
    Derf says:

    @gogol’s wife: That would require effort. The least amount of effort would be to link to that orange site.

    2 things I am not willing to do.

  98. 98
    trollhattan says:

    @Violet:

    Courtesy of today’s paper paper, Molly Ivins on Rick Perry.

    http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/.....-rick.html

  99. 99
    aisce says:

    bachmann could be elena ceaucescu.

  100. 100
    Carl Nyberg says:

    Nate Silver seems to think Ron Paul has a chance at winning in Iowa.

    If Paul wins in Iowa, he’s got to be the favorite in New Hampshire.

    Even if he loses South Carolina, I see Paul as being more palatable in Nevada than most of the other options.

  101. 101
    becca says:

    @Hal: Tee shirts!

  102. 102
    mellowjohn says:

    @MazeDancer: i thought that was “blessed are the cheesemakers.”

  103. 103
    gogol's wife says:

    @aisce:

    That’s good, I like it. Now we’re getting into the right moral neighborhood.

  104. 104
    trollhattan says:

    @aisce:

    That’s a very adroit choice, but which Bachmann?

  105. 105
    Ed Drone says:

    @J. Michael Neal:

    Mitt Romney – Troy McClure
    Rick Perry – Pope Alexander VI
    Michele Bachmann – Lucretia Borgia
    Tim Pawlenty – Napoleon III
    Herman Cain – Emperor Norton
    Rick Santorum – Francisco Franco
    Jon Huntsman – Dwight Eisenhower
    Gary Johnson – Who?
    John Bolton – Yosemite Sam, but we knew that.
    Ron Paul –

    There are probably better suggestions available.

    Ed

  106. 106
    wrb says:

    @gogol’s wife:

    Countess Elizabeth Báthory de Ecsed

    Countess Elizabeth Báthory de Ecsed (Báthory Erzsébet in Hungarian, Alžbeta Bátoriová in Slovak; 7 August 1560 – 21 August 1614) was a countess from the renowned Báthory family of Hungarian nobility. Although in modern times she has been labelled the most prolific female serial killer in history, her guilt is debated. She is nevertheless remembered as the “Blood Countess” or “Blood Queen.”
    She and four collaborators were accused of torturing and killing hundreds of girls, with one witness attributing to them over 650 victims, though the number for which they were convicted was 80.[1] Elizabeth herself was neither tried nor convicted. In 1610, however, she was imprisoned in the Csejte Castle, now in Slovakia and known as Čachtice, where she remained bricked in a set of rooms[clarification needed] until her death four years later.
    Later writings about the case have led to legendary accounts of the Countess bathing in the blood of virgins in order to retain her youth and subsequently also to comparisons with Vlad III the Impaler of Wallachia, on whom the fictional Count Dracula is partly based, and to modern nicknames of the Blood Countess and Countess Dracula.

    Of course Michelle is not yet as accomplished but after an eight years with America and its military at her command I wager Elizabeth will seem a mere piker.

  107. 107
    Ozymandias, King of Ants says:

    @PeakVT: True to some extent, but do not underestimate the resentment felt toward Cuban-Americans by other Latinos, especially Mexican-Americans.

    A Cuban takes a raft to Florida and is welcomed with open arms and catered to by the GOP.

    A Mexican comes to California for farm labor and is treated very badly (to say the least) and vilified by the GOP’s incessant fomenting of hatred toward the Other.

  108. 108
    Ozymandias, King of Ants says:

    @PeakVT: Or what Yutsano said.

  109. 109
    Raven (formerly stuckinred) says:

    @Ozymandias, King of Ants: Runnin from Fidel and Che is nothing like picking grapes.

  110. 110
    Violet says:

    @J. Michael Neal:
    Huntsman is Milton Obote. Responsible for lots of bad stuff, but mostly forgotten and overshadowed by his successor. Bachmann is Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire (now Congo). He was crazy and wore a distinctive leopard skin hat. Palin might be Mobuto, but I think she’s more Idi Amin, who was outright crazy and had quite a bit of sex appeal.

  111. 111
    Ozymandias, King of Ants says:

    Were you making a point or was that snark?

    I can’t tell.

  112. 112
    PeakVT says:

    @Yutsano: No, of course there isn’t. But the gaps aren’t so wide that everyone from another subgroup will automatically reject Rubio out of hand.

    @KG: The states that flipped from 2004 to 2008 were: NV, CO, NM, IA, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL. A Latino Veep might help Republicans in NV, CO, NM, NC, and FL. Would one make things worse in IA, IN, OH, and VA? Dunno.

    It’s a little early to speculate about such things, of course. The electoral landscape could look entirely different by this time next year.

  113. 113
    Violet says:

    @PeakVT:

    It’s a little early to speculate about such things, of course. The electoral landscape could look entirely different by this time next year.

    Yeah, I think President Giuliani and President Hillary Clinton might want to note that the things don’t always turn out as people say they will.

  114. 114
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Raven (formerly stuckinred):

    Ding ding ding ding ding!

    The real beef that the Miami Cubans have with Fidel is he deprived them of their peasantry.

    I don’t think that translates well for Latinos who are not 1st or 2nd generation Cuban-Americans.

  115. 115
    Ozymandias, King of Ants says:

    @J. Michael Neal:

    Tim Pawlenty – Napoleon III Napoleon Dynamite

  116. 116
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @Ozymandias, King of Ants:

    No way.

    Napoleon Dynamite could dance.

  117. 117
    patrick II says:

    @Professor:

    Profit and power.

    They also want to privatize education. The reason — so they can run profitable businesses where we now have schools. They want to privatize fire departments, water, public parks, armies, our retirement accounts and of course medical care.

    What the republicans ask for is no capital gains tax and no inheritance tax. In other words, no significant tax at all for republicans. They want own everything — including those things in the public domain so we have to pay them to educate our children, drink their water, park at their meters, visit their parks, and die in their hospitals, while they contribute nothing at all to the common good — except reaping profit.

    Profit and power, Professor.

  118. 118
    Ozymandias, King of Ants says:

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Hadn’t thought of that.

  119. 119
    wrb says:

    None of this matters.

    The nominee will be whomever Murdoch picks. His outlets will destroy the others.

    He controls the right-wing mind.

  120. 120
    Douglas says:
    Am I the only one who desperately misses Molly Ivins right now?

    She’d be splitting between total conniptions while warning us mightily about Perry while mocking every little foible of the Perry interregnum in Texas. And having a grand old time doing it. Can we haz zombie Molly Ivins plz?

    I’ve been meaning to ask this in the past, but somehow always forgot…
    As someone who mostly became interested in US politics after around 2000-2002, could someone please point me to list of Molly Ivins’ greatest hits? I’ve found some quote lists, which are positively delicious, but I’m getting the feeling there’s a whole galaxy of them out there somewhere.

  121. 121
    cleek says:

    @wrb:
    He controls what passes for the right-wing mind.

    enhanced that for ya

  122. 122
    Chris says:

    @cleek:

    He controls what passes for the right-wing mind.

    enhanced that for ya

    Maybe “substitutes for the right-wing mind” would be the best way to put it, IMHO.

  123. 123
    Violet says:

    @wrb:

    The nominee will be whomever Murdoch picks. His outlets will destroy the others.

    Murdoch’s power is blunted at the moment. Ailes may still be able to pick a candidate, but Murdoch is busy dealing with criminal and legal problems so his kids can keep his company and people have now seen who is behind the green curtain.

  124. 124
    Violet says:

    @Douglas:
    If you haven’t read Shrub, it’s definitely worth a read. Of course, it’ll probably make you angry.

  125. 125

    An archive of many of Molly Ivins’ columns can be found here:
    http://www.alternet.org/columnists/1406/

  126. 126
    Roger Moore says:

    @wrb:

    The nominee will be whomever Murdoch picks.

    I don’t think so. Maybe Murdoch believes that he controls the party, but he doesn’t and hasn’t for a while. The wingnut base is fighting for control of the party, and the best evidence is that they’re winning. That’s what has the Republican leadership so scared. They’re no longer in control of the monster they’ve unleashed on the world.

  127. 127
    wrb says:

    @cleek:

    enhanced that for ya

    Thank ya kindly.

  128. 128
    cckids says:

    @Roger Moore:

    If Social Security is privatized, Wall Street will make a ton of money on management fees and transaction fees, and even more on scams targeting unsophisticated investors.

    This is so true. My spouse is a financial planner & CPA; privatizing SS would be a windfall unlike any we’ve ever seen. He is still against it because it is a shitty idea. It will lead to so much misery, because lots of people won’t be bothered to plan ahead. Are we, as a country, really willing to just let them starve? (of course, if you are an Republican, the answer is yes).

  129. 129
    Elizabelle says:

    Anybody else getting the Club for Growth blog ad supporting Marco Rubio?

    Isn’t it striking how part of CfG logo is a W with an “up yours”?

  130. 130
    Emerald says:

    @Professor:

    They all want to privatize Social Security, Medicare and medicaid. Why?

    They want the money. They got lots and lots of the money in the Bush years, and now they want the rest of it.

    After those three they’ll go after private pensions. They’re already going after government pensions (except their own).

    And if the Rs ever again control all three branches of government, they’ll get it. All of it. They won’t care about being voted out, because their Supreme Court will put a stop to that nonsense.

  131. 131
    jl says:

    Live is too small for this cast of characters, even famous tyrants. So I appeal to fiction.

    Mitt Romney – The Confidence Man
    Rick Perry – Libbidy Valance
    Michele Bachmann –The Red Queen
    Tim Pawlenty – Major Major
    Herman Cain – Hank Rearden
    Rick Santorum – The Pardoner
    Jon Huntsman – Bartleby
    Gary Johnson – Who?
    John Bolton – Yosemite Sam (thanks, that’s a good’n)
    Newtie – Pere Ubu
    Ron Paul – Hugo Z. Hackenbush

  132. 132
    Dee Loralei says:

    Smartest thing the establishment could do to reestablish their control of the party, is to let the wingnuts have this one. Let them nominate the craziest fucker out there and let him or her ( Hi Michele and Sarah!) lose in an electoral and popular vote landslide. That’s the only way they can corral the beast and regain control for 2016.

    If they get a more establishmentarian type this year ( hi Mitt, T-Paw and Huntsman) and he loses, even by one vote in the electoral college, the base will never forgive the powers that be and in 2014 and 2016 they will nominate even crazier people than they did last year for the midterms and who they have running this year in the Presidential Primary. And sometime between 2016 and 2020 the demographic timer goes Boom!

    My guess is if by Jan or so, Obama looks really strong, the big money folks will cede ground and let the teaparty have their way. If Obama looks beatable, the money boys will kill all teaparty candidates before Super Tuesday.

  133. 133
    oldswede says:

    A couple of posters have mentioned Ron Paul as a viable candidate. One important datum to remember: August 20, 1935.
    His birth date. He will be 76 years old next Saturday and 77 on January 20, 1913. Reagan was the oldest President and 77 when his term ended and we know how he had deteriorated.
    Can a man past his mid-seventies even have the energy for a Presidential campaign?
    oldswede

  134. 134
    Lojasmo says:

    @Uncle Clarence Thomas:

    And this is germaine how? A tiny Blog compared to half the republican electorate.

  135. 135
    Jenny says:

    @MazeDancer:

    he has no trouble making up stuff now, and no hesitation to attack the President with relished venom and lies out the gate

    Parry’s speech must of been a big hit with FDL.

  136. 136
    Pat says:

    The GOP nominee will have to be Christian, Christian, Christian, Christian, Christian, Christian, Christian and MORE Christian; and anti- everything else with big government the biggest anti of them all.

    No doubt about it.

    Mitt and his corporations-are-people/people-are-corporations will just have to find another country to run.

  137. 137
    wonkie says:

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    I really don’t see much difference between the establishment R’s ad the Teajadist R’s. They want to do the same thigs–cut taxes down tonothig, destroy the middle class, Social Security, medicare and Medicaid, pulbic schools…Maybe the establishmet R’s are more pro-foreign itervetion. They all wat to get somethig for othig, noe of them respect facts. The establishmet types are more cyical maipulators of wedge issues ad the Teajadists actually care abut the wedge issues. But it’s stil more a difference of style than content.

    I thik the only substantive difference between the R establishmet ad the Tea jadistsis the R establishmet uderstads the importance of choosing a candidate that has the style or veneer or image to be electable. They want Tea jahad substancew with a Ropald Reaga appearace. The Teajadist seem to wat someone shrill ad wildeyed.

  138. 138

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