In addition to yesterday’s polling showing that Republicans aren’t very popular, today Gallup has a survey out showing that a majority want a debt compromise that includes taxes on the wealthy and tax reform. This poll is interesting because it segments out self-identified Tea Partiers, and they’re the only ones consistently against compromise.
If the 2010 election was a Tea Party election, the 2012 race is going to be the “Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Tea Party” race.
JasonF
I hope you’re right, but I have a feeling 2012 will be another “I think the system is broken, so I won’t be bothered to vote” election.
WereBear
I disagree. Things are going too badly, for too many, for that to happen.
dr. bloor
And if you segment out all of Derek Jeter’s at-bats that resulted in ground balls to the infield, he’d be hitting .738.
The presence and effectiveness of the Tea Partiers is the essence of the problem. It’s hardly a surprise that the rest of the country doesn’t agree with them.
eric
I think the results from Wisconsin last night (sadly) validate Obama’s message and policy pragmatism. Here you have a situation in which publicly, and in a manner over which there is not debate as to the facts, the GOP eliminated collective bargaining rights AND effectively issued arrest warrants for the democratic legislators and yet, the voter split was near 50-50. (I am not saying that the grassroots campaign was a failure or ill-conceived.) I just don’t see how a more emphatically liberal/progressive message automatically equates to re-election or increased democratic chances. You might argue that the GOP did not get punished for its brazen behavior, so the Dems should try it because there is no downside, but I just think that the structural impediments of a favorable corporatist media make that impossible. You have a Courtier class (the press) that aligns itself with the upwardly mobile anti-labor, low tax strand of conservatism. The latest numbers all show Obama beating a generic Republican. He is personally popular, notwithstanding the current economic conditions. I take this to mean that people like his style, such that it looks like his style of strategic decision making has not turned people off, even though they many wish more or different things had been done. Plus, the Republicans in Congress are dropping like stones. Thus, in the end, though I want to see more progressive legislation on jobs, industrial policy, immigration, education, with less spent on instruments of war and with far less invasions of our civil liberties, there is little I see that will cause an immediate change to our political trajectory. I think Obama sees that better than any politician. I think he is comfortable (barely) winning battles while not losing the war, as the other side fights to the death — alas, with the support of a good deal of the nation.
Citizen_X
Yeah, but is the DNC going to ask that question? I don’t think so, which leaves it up to us.
Where that’s going to be especially critical is in campaigns to replace Congressional Tea Party caucus members and supporters in swing districts. We need to target those people specifically.
gene108
We can dream.
@WereBear: A lot depends on the how the new Congressional districts get drawn up, about how vulnerable incumbents – Democrats and/or Republicans – will be in 2012.
Napoleon
@Eric:
Yeah, in what for the most part are Republican districts. No matter how bad the Reps are they are always going to get 45% nation wide. The trick is to flip the people at the margins and that largely happened yesterday in Wis. It just so happens that the Dems were operating in territory.
KCinDC
@eric, the voter split was 50-50 in districts that are red enough that they elected Republicans while the state as a whole was going for Obama by double digits. If we could get to 50-50 in places that are that red across the country, it would be a huge Democratic landslide.
Omnes Omnibus
@Napoleon: This.
General Stuck
The Supercongress will convene soon, and the wingers will be compulsively trying to destroy medicare, and cut spending while protecting the rich from paying higher taxes. Dems will rally around the save medicare from the wingnuts flag, and demagogue the wingers protecting their base, the rich.
A most excellent political playing field for democrats in electoral politics. And with the cherry on top, that when this SC cannot agree due to these epic differences in party ideology, the trigger gets pulled and aimed straight at republican feet, with massive cuts to the military and medicare providers.
Edit – and the goopers will be screaming tax and spend liberal at Obama, and he can say, hey man, I cut spending, how come you won’t raise taxes on the rich , like the voters want/
arguingwithsignposts
All of this would be really important if GOP politicians gave a shit about public opinion. They’ll say “mandate” and “American people” and wave all that polling shit away with a hand wave. These people don’t triangulate. They’re on a suicide mission, and damn the public if they don’t like it.
ETA: wrt the Wisc. recalls. I take it as a win. But the real test for the entire state will be early next year when Walker is eligible for recall. Eyes on the prize.
Han's Big Snark Solo
@KCinDC:
Exactly, these Republicans won in 2008, that wasn’t a good year for Republicans.
Also too, these are state legislators, none of whom voted for the Paul Ryan Plan To Kill Medicare In Order To Give Tax Cuts To Billionaires.
The Democrats biggest weapon in the upcoming elections wasn’t an issue in these races.
El Cid
@eric: The Wisconsin election results are hard to easily place into the “policy pragmatism” way to victory, since there only were elections last night due to an extraordinary amount of grassroots (on up) electoral activity completely outside the norms of politics, and driven by those with the most feverish commitment to liberal and Democratic issues.
The comparison case isn’t D’s winning 2 out of 6 versus 1 or 3 out of 6, but no elections at all.
terraformer
What is the most demoralizing thing for me is that it is quite clear that by the numbers, Americans just aren’t liberal. Or even if they support liberal viewpoints when issues are presented individually instead of all issues presented through a collective “liberal” lens, a perhaps unconscious desire for conservative identity fueled by Fourth Estate courtesans seems to trump that.
It’s difficult to recognize and accept this reality, that most people I see daily aren’t into equality and empathy, but are instead at best indifferent to the plight of others or are at worst people who gladly and with prejudice practice the politics of resentment. It doesn’t matter whether polls say that conservatives are unpopular generally or that the public sides with liberals on particular issues if there are no consequences for conservatives, either at the ballot box or in the media. I just don’t know what to do about this. I’m not giving up, mind you – I just don’t know where to go from here.
slippy
People should note that prior to last night, exactly 20 state legislators had ever been subject to recall in all US history EVER. And of those 20 only 13 had actually been recalled.
Also yesterday a New Hampshire Republican lost a special election to a Democrat, in a heavily Republican district.
What this tells us is that the momentum is against the GOP. Walker just barely hung on to control of the Senate, and the remaining GOPbags are now under a microscope. The fact that we unseated two GOPbags who won during a Democratic wave election in 2008 means that a lot of folks have turned against the GOP and their extremist agenda.
eric
To all: my point not that we should have won these contests, but that if there was ever a contest to win, this was it. You had an energized base that got the recalls to happen, but there is a clear top end to how much dem support there was. This matters because of the way the US Senate works. These are not dramatically red districts in the way Utah is a red state for the US Senate. These districts are effectively the redish suburbs in purple states and there is limit to how effective liberal red meat will get you. I live in Chicago and I would look at these districts as proxies for Dupage and Will Counties (which I see as proxies for battlegrounds everywhere). I do not think that red meat liberal rhetoric sells in those places even to the less extreme redish voter.
RalfW
@terraformer: I think it’s much more the politics of selfishness, with a generous sprinkling of resentment as the flavlr note.
As one of the first post-boomers (born late 1965) I see in the years ahead of me some of the most entitled, arrogant, and selfish generations ever to have existed on the face of the earth.
As with any aggregate statement like that, of course there are generous, caring and progressive people within the generation. But the “Turn on, tune in, drop out” folks really never let go of their me-ism.
The Tea Party is just the ugly, cancerous end-state of what started as free love in the 60’s … except now it’s free hoverrounds and “Gubmit hands off my Medicare!”
jwb
@eric: If you thought these races would be easy, that means you were expecting that the conservatives were disspirited and were not going to show up. They had already proved in the state supreme court race that they were highly motivated. What we now have is our side highly motivated. That is a positive thing, and we have to keep it up. But you can’t expect that the other side is just going to stand down because our side has its game together.
Thoughtcrime
”
Not going to hold my breath on that one. I’m still waiting for Dems to ask Republican court nominees: “Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Federalist Society?” Should be very easy to demonize that organization.
ruemara
I’d like to point out that I am in a FB discussion right now with a super progressive with a blog, don’t roll your eyes too much, who is slitting his wrists in a group wristslitting over not winning all 6 seats. Because there was only 2 flips, this is a huge, horrible failure that shows how 2012 will be a massive loss and the country is DOOOmed Doooomed I tells you! When I say emoprog, I should just say EMO.
rb
@RalfW:
free hoverrounds
For the life of me I cannot explain why this particular choice of words is making me laugh out loud. But thanks, that was great.
Maybe I need to get some sleep.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@ruemara:
That is so not surprising. People tend to surround themselves with folks who think exactly like them. So, then they think most people either secretly do or should think exactly like them. Considering my family are all fire-breathing conservatives, I don’t have the luxury of being naive about what we face and just how entrenched conservative attitutes are. I think the first step is acknowledging that your views are the views of a minority, and that you should be grateful for every victory, no matter how small. Second, rather than attacking conservatives head on, sometimes you get further by steadily eroding the myths they base their beliefs on (ie. tax cuts increase revenue, ‘real’ Americans don’t need government, etc). Nothing squashes righteous zeal like nagging doubts.
gwangung
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Hell, yes.
ruemara
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
I also find it funny how the most emo, depressed, woe is me, conspiracy, whywhywhy comments are the most ‘liked’. These are the allies?
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@ruemara:
These are the allies?
Yeah. Afraid so. They like to stand around and circle jerk. We criticize conservatives a lot for living in a bubble. Be aware some of our allies live in just as much of one.
shortstop
@ruemara: Wouldn’t it be easier and save time to just stick sharp things into your eyes?
Brachiator
Useless poll. Republicans don’t care.
@General Stuck:
Medicare may end up cut. The military will never be touched, especially if there is any hot spot in the world where the US is involved when it’s time for any cuts.
ruemara
@shortstop:
I thought that’s what I was doing.
Cat Lady
This is what I see one of the things emoprogs not getting the most in how Obama goes about his business. The calmer and more conciliatory he is, the more the amped up right wing characterizations of him as a radical seekritmuslimcommiefascistusurper hell bent on destroying the country seems wrong to everyone not part of the 27%ers, and so they think what else about the noise coming out of that faction is wrong? That’s how the country came to mostly approve of gay marriage – previous underlying assumptions about gays are no longer the prevailing underlying assumptions, but not because of anyone using the bully pulpit. That kind of shift in attitude has to happen organically, and horror of horrors, pragmatically. Every percentage of “independents” you can peel away from the goopers counts in every election now, because people are scared. Obama is likeable, reasonable and calm, and keeps extending his hand. I know that’s frustrating to the emoprogs who want him waving his dick around all the time, but his conciliatory nature is his best quality and not his worst. YMMV.
Derf
Of course you fail to mention Obama kicking the shit out of a generic Republican in a presidential election. Funny nobody mentions that.
http://theobamadiary.com/2011/08/10/obama-surges-to-lead-against-generic-republican/
But when last weeks outlier poll indicated he would come out lower all the trolls were coming out of the woodwork here and on that orange site showing their true colors!
Stay Gloomy Baboons!
Omnes Omnibus
@Derf: Assface, did you read the post? In what way is it gloomy? Christ, if you are going to try to troll this blog as an Obot (a creative choice, I will grant you), you have to do better than this. I am disappointed.
Derf
@Omnes Omnibus: Omnes, your pie filter broken. How many times have you said you were going to filter me?
Do you want me to help you? I would be more than happy to help one of my groupies. It’s the least I can do.
Mike in NC
Sullivan on austerity:
“George W. Bush, now uncontroversially the worst president in all of our lifetimes. All those future spending cuts should have his name embossed on them; and when the tax increases come, as they must, they should bear his name.”
Omnes Omnibus
@Derf: My guess on the number of times I have said I am going to pie you is zero. I don’t use the pie filter. Of course, allowing facts to stand in your way isn’t what you do.
Derf
@Omnes Omnibus: Ha! Starting to think you are Cole. Hugs and Kisses sweetheart!
Derf
@JasonF: Stay gloomy. You are on the right site. Everyone else here is also a gloom porn addict.
Btw, that whole “I was disenfranchised and didn’t bother voting” bullshit is something cooked up the professional left retards.
For non koolaid drinkers it was just like any other midterm.
Arclite
I hope you’re right. What a bunch of a-holes.
Omnes Omnibus
@Derf: Honestly, I am not sure who should be more insulted by that. OTOH, given the source, neither of us should be.
Derf
@Omnes Omnibus: Omnes, your obsession with me is quite a compliment if not a bit creepy.
But your obsession inspires me to post even more. Hugs and kisses.
General Stuck
@Brachiator:
Maybe, but this is a done deal, and those cuts to both are automatic if the committee can’t agree on the primary deal. It would take another act of congress signed by the president to alter or repeal the mil cuts. And with a dem senate and WH, they won’t go for just cuts to medicare, even if it’s only providers. Not going to happen. So nothing would get cut, if you are correct about the mil cuts.
dollared
@terraformer: One more try: This does NOT show that Americans are split 50/50. These were Republican districts. So Republican that all these legislators were elected in 2008, in the face of statewide 14 point win for Obama.
The recall moved the Dm/Rep split 5+ points to Dems in those districts. The results show a decline in support for Republicans in key Republican strongholds.
Good news, in other words.
Steve M.
Obama won every district where there was a recall election. Those districts were red at the local level, but not red through and through.