I thought I’d check in with David Frum since he opined yesterday that Obama’s bad negotiation skills are at least partially to blame for our current debt vote crisis. Today, he has two posts that make this basic point:
If you’re a Republican elected official, you want two things from the debt-ceiling budget talks:
1) You want the talks to succeed – to produce a deal that keeps the government in business and averts a financial catastrophe.
2) You want to align yourself personally with those who (unsuccessfully!) oppose the deal.[…]
Here’s the obvious problem: Depending on how the House Democrats vote, it’s possible dozens of Republican members of Congress can get both their wishes. But if every Republican indulges wish #2, then they will fail to realize wish #1.
The Republicans’ basic dilemma is that a “No” vote on the debt ceiling will reap great rewards for each individual “rebel” voter, but an overall “No” vote will kill the party. I don’t know what kind of negotiation-fu Frum thinks Obama could have used to overcome this basic structural problem, but I think his post yesterday was just an obligatory critique of Obama that he had to get out of the way before he got to the meat of the issue, which is that the current structure of his party rewards burning down the house.
Admiral_Komack
Burning Down The House!
It’s the Republican Way!
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@Admiral_Komack #1:
Fixed that for you.
cleek
this just in: Obama continues to fail to please his enemies.
Hunter Gathers
Why should anyone give a flying fuck what David ‘Axis of Evil’ Frum thinks?
Linda Featheringill
You might be correct in thinking that Frum might use Obama in order to frame his argument. I don’t know what his motives are [I still can’t read minds], but he might be trying to gently and affectionately lead his conservative followers to consider an uncomfortable truth: The GOP is between a rock and a hard place.
Or maybe I’m giving him too much credit. I don’t know.
Hugh
I think there are plenty of Republicans who would be OK with economic catastrophe if they thought it would bring them big electoral gains. And economic catastrophe very well might do that for them even if they caused it. Then there are other Republicans in the truly crazy camp who don’t appear to believe default will cause big problems, or who believe the economic pain of these problems will be a lesson to us all. I’m not at all sure there’s a huge majority of Republicans who are clear in their desire to see debt ceiling raised. (post edited primarily to correct grammar)
jheartney
Sounds like a version of The Prisoner’s Dilemma.
Game theory predicts we will have a default.
JPL
Laurence Tribe has an opinion piece in the NYTimes. link
A Ceiling We Can’t Wish Away
Admiral_Komack
@2. The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
Thank you, you eeeeevil genius, you. :-)
Sentient Puddle
@jheartney:
Not sure how you come to that conclusion. Just because the current situation might be like the Prisoner’s Dilemma doesn’t mean the payoffs are the same.
Davis X. Machina
The prospect of the UK Tories enjoying power, albeit in coalition, despite running on a “We can make things much worse. We will make things worse. And you know that we can, because you lived through Thatcher.” manifesto, must be especially galling.
Cris
Republicans: watch out, you might get what you’re after.
Kiril
“I don’t know what kind of negotiation-fu Frum thinks Obama could have used to overcome this basic structural problem…”
There is always simply not negotiating. The debt ceiling is normally raised with no negotiations or deals. Now it will be every time.
Davis X. Machina
@jheartney:
The ship of state turns out to be the Kobayashi Maru…
Dennis SGMM
@Kiril
Or at least until the president is a lily-white Republican.
LittlePig
@Sentient Puddle
Because of the near-perfect monolith of the modern Republican Party, all payouts are pretty much the same. Tea Party Rules: burn it down.
The Republicans are prisoners of their own rhetoric. Betting against default means betting enough GOPers act responsibly. I’m starting to lose faith in that myself – the crazy sumbitches are going to fail to raise the debt ceiling.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@LittlePig #16:
And they’ll reap all the fucking electoral benefits of it too when the public reacts by shinkicking every single fucking Dem for being ‘responsible’ for it all.
kindness
Can’t we just agree that Frum is both a) part of the problem in giving cover to the scorched earth Republican tactics and b) correct about the Obama Administrations abominable negotiating skills?
I mean seriously, for the entire time Obama has been in office, the Republicans have not once shown they have any interest in acting like adults. To my dismay, Obama still seems to think he has to play to them as if they were.
2012 elections started right after the 2010 elections. If the Obama Administration doesn’t start being very up front and honest about Republicans, Democrats will not be able to convey what they stand for and what they are up against. Expecting the media to give an accurate picture is sheer lunacy.
The Moar You Know
You can stop right there. I don’t even think they give a shit if they win the election, just so long as the Negroes, Mexicans, and Hippies get what’s coming to them.
That they’ll actually be the first ones to “get what’s coming to them” has not and will not cross their minds.
2012 is all about payback at any cost.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
Ugh…and if to punctuate my frustration about the inevitability of Dems and “hippies” getting to shoulder all the blame for the GOP fuckwit fest, I get smashed in the face with ads about how ‘Liberalism Destroys Peoples and Nations’.
jheartney
It’s pretty close. In classic Prisoner’s Dilemma, each individual must choose to either defect (analogous to voting for default) or cooperate (raise the limit). If most members vote to defect, we get the worst outcome (default). But if most members vote to cooperate, we avoid the worst outcome. However for any individual member, voting to defect is always the safest option, even though it leads collectively to a bad outcome. Otherwise, they risk casting an unpopular vote yet reaping the bad outcome anyway.
Sentient Puddle
Yeah, never mind then. It’s times like these that make me wonder if people here are only slightly less interested in handwavey freakoutery than the FDL crowd.
ETA: @jheartney: That is a good response, though I’m still a little leery of the analysis. But don’t take this post as being directed at you.
catclub
Hugh @ 6 “I think there are plenty of Republicans who would be OK with economic catastrophe if they thought it would bring them big electoral gains.”
This a thousand times, this.
Read Cantor or Paul Ryan’s (Not sure which one) explanation of why he voted for TARP.
It boiled down to: “If we don’t do this the Democrats will win.” Not a single concern about what is best for the country.
You bet they will wreck the economy if it is good for the GOP.
jheartney
To quote some other Trek, you may have just written our epitaph.
WaterGirl
cleek, you made me laugh:
LittlePig
Yeah, the bankers were doing a super job Galtifying the planet when the nig*BONG* came in and slowed down the process. It’d a been Armageddeon 2012 if he hadn’t got in the way, and all good white folks would have been Raptured already.
Yevgraf
Jesus will fix all the hurt in the afterlife, so consequences don’t have to be considered.
Actually, I think the nihilist plan is to use all these hoarded profits to bolster the new Reaganiffical leader that will emerge from the planned wreckage of the Obama administration. This is one of those moments when it would be really awesome to have a bomb-planting, right wing pundit and plutocrat slaughtering radically violent wing of the left. Unfortunately, our left isn’t of that mindset, so Tucker Carlson, Jonah Goldberg and the Kochs continue to be granted an open field run.
ChrisNYC
Interesting that just when the GOP’s ridiculous tax position was making it very hard for them — “humminah humminah we’re NOT pro subsidy, REALLY,” — Frum rode in yesterday to say, “HEY LOOK AT OBAMA!!!! IT’S HIS FAULT!!!!” Lovely to see the lefty internet falling right in behind the writer of the Axis of Evil speech. Political pros, our true progressives.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@Yevgraf #27
Not that it keeps them from insinuating that all the dirty libs really do want to kill them all, so the only way to stop them is to utterly destroy them and convince the country that liberals will kill America at every chance they get.
Remarkably successful at that, too.
LittlePig
Oh for crying out loud. Our warblings here or there or anywhere have no effect on the legislative process at this point.
And what ‘freakoutery’? Obama can still do the 14th Amendment option, which will prevent default, as well as handing the GOP a mighty cudgel. Or he might not, and we’ll default and see what happens. I’m missing the freakout part.
Dennis SGMM
@The Moar You Know
Two of the Republicans’ most cherished aims are:
1)The dismantling of what they see as the welfare state.
2)The transfer of the Social Security trust fund to private hands.
If they believe that failing to raise the debt ceiling will accomplish either or both of the above then they’re not going to raise it. If they believe that it will doom Obama then that’s just icing on the cake.
Even if catastrophe ensues there will be no electoral penalty for them because they are past masters of either convincing their voters that they were “for it before they were against it,” or simply lying about their vote.
Admiral_Komack
@14. Davis X. Machina
@jheartney:
“Game theory predicts we will have a default.”
“The ship of state turns out to be the Kobayashi Maru…”
…and the Republicans don’t take prisoners…
Admiral_Komack
@26. LittlePig
LittlePig Johnson is right.
Sentient Puddle
@LittlePig: You weren’t here yesterday, were you?
LittlePig
You made my day , Admiral_Komack.
LittlePig
You weren’t here yesterday, were you?
No (and I really shouldn’t be here now, those bits won’t push themselves). I thought you meant in this thread, and specifically the game theory comments, and I was missing the melodrama.
So other than the Annoying Adventures of Derf, I’m not aware of a larger context. If there were people saying the world will literally end with default, well, those folks are out-of-touch with reality (aka morons). It’ll be one more economic distruption in a series, and not as big a one as the housing bubble crash at that.
ruemara
LittlePig
You missed Barney Frank’s august opinion that the 14th Amendment will not allow the President to just raise the debt ceiling. So… the Presidential options are to 1. interfere again in Congresses job and negotiate a debt deal with negative consequences to himself and democrats; 2. continue the mexican stand off and preside over an America that has announced it will fail to honour it’s debts and crashes it’s credit rating. That was quite helpful, Mr. Frank.
kindness
LittlePig@30
As bad as it was here yesterday I went over to FDL to see what they were doing. Talk about circular firing squads….No, It’s both a blessing and a curiosity that BJ is a sea of reason when compared to that.
handsmile
Hugh’s post (#6) above neatly and astutely summarizes GOP electoral calculations on economic collapse. Default, renewed recession, “structural” unemployment, all will be hung around the neck of Obama and the Democratic Party.
Setting the terms of the financial/economic debates has been an unmitigated triumph for the GOP. (Simply look at TPM’s daily poll of polls to see the Donkey being pinned for the public’s unease.) Paul Ryan and Jim DeMint, one economically discredited, the other an economic anarchist, are still being given the microphone to pronounce on legislative measures.
Once the details of the “grand bargain” are agreed upon and the odious bill is delivered to Congress for passage, it will again be House Democrats who will be pressured to act like “adults’ “for the good of the country.” Like with TARP and ACA, GOP congressmen will not be asked to account for their votes.
As for David Frum and his confrere Andrew Sullivan, they are utterly irrelevant to the reigning leadership of the GOP. They speak to and for a Republican Party that exists only in their memory and imagination. It is a peculiar feature of this blog how much they, especially Sullivan, matter to so many readers/posters here.
Admiral_Komack
@ 37. ruemara
Well, that’s the Democrats for you; always willing to help (stick a shiv in the back of) the President.
cleek
@ruemara:
is Barney Frank’s the final word on Constitutional matters ?
He loved Big Brother
I would say that his sensible critique of BO is that obama in many ways holds all of the cards. Public opinion is clearly on his side, and there are many high profile loopholes that can be used to tie the rethugs into knots, esp. the carried interest issue. However, BO is cravenly backing down and giving in even when not asked. His behaviour, and his weakness are a huge detriment to the country, and a incredible disappointment to progressives.
Omnes Omnibus
@ handsmile:
I think this is due to the inordinate number of ex-GOPers who congregate here. Neither Sullivan nor Frum have ever been much of a draw for me.
ruemara
Cleek
Oh god no. Not even a bit. However, as many on the left have pointed out, why is he commenting on a tactic and burying it? Why is the only one held to a standard of unity and messaging President Obama? Frank should have just shut it on this. For whatever reason, Democrats cannot hold a line.
Nutella
Hmmm, so it’s like the tragedy of the commons that illustrates why every place needs a government. An intelligent government, that is, not a Republican government.
cleek
@ruemara:
’tis the eternal problem.
hildebrand
I know I will be tagged as being a pure Obot for saying this – Obama has not only had to try to figure out the Republicans, who never seem to want to take yes for an answer, but also has had to deal with Democrats who seem unwilling to actually do any heavy lifting of their own, or are actually working against the President on a regular basis. Just how do you negotiate when you are playing 2 against 1, and your supposed allies are forever undercutting your position or simply pretending that nothing of interest is happening? What national Dem has had Obama’s back in any of the negotiations over the last two plus years? How often did this mythical beast sprint to the cameras to give him a bit of cover?
I am not trying to let him off the hook for negotiations that seem less than salutary, but how often does it seem like Obama is out there on his own – the Republicans want him to fail, and the Democrats won’t help him succeed. Who could do well in that scenario?
cleek
@hildebrand:
Progressive Jesus – Savior of The Cause, He who can control the GOP with his glorious Word, Master of the Bully Pulpit, Wielder of the Holy Signing Statement, and Leader of Men – could do it.
Obama has failed again; this time by failing to actually be the Messiah the wingnuts are always mocking liberals for thinking he is.
fasteddie9318
I’m not even sure an overall “no” vote will kill the party. As bad as the media is and as stupid as voters can be, it’s 50/50 in my view who takes the rap for the meltdown that ensues after we default. In some tiny way my dream scenario is that things get so bad that this country peacefully breaks apart, but that would never happen.
traftron
is this supposed to be 365 days, 360 degrees or 180 degrees? or maybe you mean he turned a full circle, then continued on 5 degrees away from where he was yesterday?
thin-slicing frum’s day to day opinions seems like a path to madness to me.
cleek
@traftron:
365 deg.
jheartney
It’s just game theory, not a hard-and-fast prediction. Personally I hope they see it as the iterated version of PD, which allows even wholly self-interested players a path to cooperating. Or that GOP congresscritters aren’t strict game theory types.
traftron
ahh…okay. i’m a moron.
thanks @cleek
i probably messed up that link thing too. sigh
jheartney
I wouldn’t be so sure about this. Newt made the same calculation in ’95 WRT gov’t shutdown, and it ended up biting him in his expansive ass.
OzoneR
Not when there’s a Democratic President and Republican Congress.
OzoneR
Because he made himself look like an ass, up until then, the public was blaming Clinton for the mess.
OzoneR
!?!?!?!??!?!
The public is against raising the debt ceiling, even if it kills the economy.
OzoneR
Then it really doesn’t matter what Obama or the Democrats say, they can’t reach undecided and low info voters without the media.
JRon
He’s horribly wrong on #1. I don’t believe the govt will go into default without raising the ceiling. The 14th amendment will see to that. We will, however, have to radically cut domestic spending & social programs. It’s a back-door way of getting what far right has wanted for years.
Plus it will drive us into a depression, further solidify class division, and appeal to the teabaggers. It’s a win-win!