Perhaps it’s a little too far past the cocktail hour to engage in this kind of overly general speculation, but I have a theory about why Democrats are doing so much better in Senate races and House specials than in regular House races (and probably also local/state races, though I don’t have any data to suggest that is true). The reason is simple: Democrats have better candidates.
In a typical House race, most people in the district don’t scrutinize the candidate that closely, but in Senate races and House special elections, candidates get a lot of media attention. Democrats won the Senate races in Nevada and Delaware largely on the basis of the fact that voters thought that the Republican candidates were weirdos. In the special races in NY-26, NY-20, and NY-23, Democrats were helped greatly by the fact that Hochul, Murphy, and Owens came across much better than Corwin, Tedisco, and Hoffman. Only Hoffman was a true nut among the Republican candidates, but in all three cases, the Democrat was, if not the person you’d rather have a beer with, then the person you’d trust more to help you do your taxes.
This is why I think that NY-26 may not be as good an omen for Democrats as it might appear at first blush. Democrats will generally field better candidates than Republicans in House races in 2012, but they won’t get as much mileage out of it as they would in a special election or a Senate race.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
Past cocktail hour??? Is there such a thing on BJ?
BSoSR +4
OK, now I’ll read your post and see if I can come up with some sort of intelligent comment.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
In the last couple of House races in PA-19 we had a really good Democrat. Vietnam veteran, college prof, to the right of most Dems. He got creamed by the generic Repub (Todd Platts) who’s represented this district, voting mostly in lockstep, with a few interesting exceptions, for years.
It’s really really tough to knock out an incumbent.
CJ
I’m not so sure. I thought the plotline from NY26 was that Dems could attack the Ryan plan and win. In terms of outside-the-district narratives, that’s the only one I got out of all the NY26 media coverage. This is, of course, in comparison to the other two, where I got a distinct negative impression of the Republican candidate.
Other than janecorwin.org I heard nothing about either candidate’s personal foibles or what have you. I didn’t even know what Kathy Hochul looked like until election night.
Spaghetti Lee
Well, if by “regular” you mean 2010, I’d argue it was mostly the economy, with a healthy dose of Rove/Koch propaganda and low turnout among Democrats. Most voters don’t sit down and do a logical analysis of who to vote for, even if they absolutely should. I’m not a political scientist, but I’d bet that prevailing economic/political winds take a very big share of who people vote for, along with cultural factors, and individual personalities only matter if they’re really strong, usually the repellent kind of strong (Angle, O’Donnell, Pantano, etc.)
Wannabe Speechwriter
Sleep deprived comment-
I think House elections are becoming very much like Parliamentary elections in other countries. The focus is less and less on the quality of candidates and more and more as a referendum on the state of affairs nationally. We even see this in special elections. Just a thought.
West of the Cascades
I also think you underestimate the relatively high percentage of non-crazy Republican voters in upstate New York compared with the rest of the country. My sense is that there is still a fair number of people who vote Republican in upstate NY that at least vaguely recall Rockefeller/Javitz/Boehlert and genuinely moderate Republicans (i.e. people who today would be centrist Democrats), and distrust the utterly batshit crazy (Confederate) element that dominates the party they’re nominally part of. That phenomenon isn’t likely to be repeated elsewhere outside of the northeast.
Comrade Luke
Might also explain why gubernatorial races, which are extremely important, get no attention until a wingut gets elected and destroys the state.
Unfortunately, they often get negative attention during the downtime between election cycles, but once voting season is upon us the power of incumbency takes over and we get fucked all over again.
I would not be the least bit surprised if Walker, Scott and Christie win again.
Jenny
You’re wrong. Rachel is right.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#43200758
kdaug
When God said “Let there be light”, who was he talking to?
We get the government we want. Good and hard.
Change will only happen organically. Know that jackass Repub neighbor? Change his mind.
Coerce, persuade, cojole, berate. Fucking bribe if you have to.
Convince.
It the only power we have left.
James E. Powell
@Jenny:
I couldn’t get the video to run. What did she say?
Spaghetti Lee
@Jenny:
I sure hope she’s right. That special election in Ohio is news to me. Any polling on that? Or the NV-2 special in September?
Yutsano
@Spaghetti Lee: Last I heard on that they were still legal wrangling over who could be a candidate and how they are chosen, beyond that haven’t heard much. I think it’ll be a situation where we will know more as we get closer.
piratedan
@DHJ ty Miss Ann Elk…..
perhaps you’re right, perhaps they are better candidates, at this point, given what Republicans have proposed and based on what Republicans have done, I believe that inanimate objects would poll favorably against most Republican candidates at this time. Chances are good that those objects would win at least half of the debates, based on what the current R’s have been saying out loud.
A Humble Lurker
I think the medicare thing and the backlash against Republican governors can be used against the right, but it’s still a while from election day, and we should NOT take anything for granted. No way.
Napoleon
Doug,
You are right. I think someone like Nate Silver even did something a while back that shows that while Dem Sen candidates out perform the Dem generic polling results last cycle that House candidates shadowed the generic, which would be support for that theory.
mistermix
I think this is right, and in addition to voters having time to scrutinize the candidates, they and the media also have time to sort through the bullshit claims that tend to dominate the race (and are usually sown by Republicans). When there are dozens of races going on simultaneously, there’s not enough time for debunking.
HRA
In the 25 years I have worked in my office, I was never privy to one conversation on politics. Now that I moved to another section, I get an almost daily dose introduction of it by the person in the adjoining office who is a staunch conservative Republican and one who extols the virtues of Palin, Ryan, etc.
The day before the NY-26 election she praised Kathy Hochul for all she had done for the area. The day after the election she announced she voted for Corwin. It’s really mind boggling for I tend to stay away from any politics or religious debates and have no clue as how to shut her up without offending her.
Alex S.
@Wannabe Speechwriter:
Nice, sounds true to me.
Upper West
Maybe this theory is true for off-year elections, like 2010, but for the high turnout Presidential election in 2011, you do have a strong candidate at the top of the ticket, President Obama.
Fred
So let me summarize.
This is good news for John McCain!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jO2dScuNnDI&feature=mh_lolz&list=FLFS_K3a_-fCo
You gotta be fucking kidding right? You don’t actually believe this spew coming off your keyboard do you?
existential fish
No one’s mentioned Martha Coakley yet?
Interesting.
demz taters
@existential fish: There were two factors there. One is that nobody can touch Scott Brown’s work ethic when it comes to campaigning, something Coakley should have known and been ready for if she’d researched his career back to the late 90s. The other is that she disdained the idea of standing in the cold outside Fenway Park to shake hands with Red Sox fans and didn’t know who Curt Schilling was. The second was probably more deadly than the first given that sports and politics are the two staples of Boston drive-time radio.
OzoneR
@Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason:
unless said incumbent is a Democrat.
AAA Bonds
I agree.
I think the proportion of nutty House members in swing states such as North Carolina (Foxx, McHenry, etc.) has a lot to do with no media or opposition source trumpeting these idiots’ previous statements.