In the three-way special election in NY-26, a new Siena poll was just released showing Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Jane Corwin, 48-32 42-38 (MOE 3.9%). Erstwhile teabagger Jack Davis is bringing up the rear with 12%. The Republican conventional wisdom on this race was that Republicans who were flirting with Davis would come home to Corwin, but it looks like the opposite is happening. Hochul has gained 11 points since the last Siena poll, and Corwin has gained 2.
Looking at the crosstabs [pdf], Corwin is down by a point in the most conservative, rural and oldest part of the district. That’s devastating for the Corwin campaign and for Republicans in 2012, because it shows that the Hochul strategy of telling the truth about Corwin’s support of the Ryan plan is taking a big bite. Hochul and her spokespeople have been visiting nursing homes in the district to press home the attack, and it’s clearly working.
The election is Tuesday, the momentum in this race is on Hochul’s side, and the Corwin campaign is a complete fail parade. Yesterday, a local newspaper excoriated Corwin for a misleading Chamber of Commerce ad that made it look like they had endorsed Corwin. And, to top that, Corwin, in league with House Republicans, was first to release the news that an amendment opposed by families of Flight 3407 had been pulled. I’ll let you follow that last link by Buffalopundit to get a full taste of how low Corwin will go, and how desperate her campaign has become.
Baud
May be too much to hope for Hochul to win a majority of the votes, but that would be sweet.
Marlene
I think your numbers should be 42-38 as they state that Hochul leads by 4.
Bob
Where do those numbers come from? Not the link you provide.
BDR
Yeah, according to the crosstabs it’s 42-38-12.
piratedan
it’s an old school typo/number transposition… or else his source has been raptured ;-)
http://icanhascheezburger.com/2011/05/21/funny-pictures-no-theres-only-one/
Mark C
must we use “bringing up the rear” in reference to teabaggers?
Cliff
Yes, but can Democrats copy her simple, intuitive strategy of telling the truth to the people who are going to get hurt the most?
cleek
all you who want to primary Obama, take note: this is what happens when you split a party.
WereBear
Perhaps if the Republicans keep making it simpler and simpler, the old timers in the Democratic Party will catch on…
cat48
The Wall St Journal wants you to understand that if the Dem wins, this is absolutely NOT b/c of Ryan’s Budget.
Failure, Inc.
Hochul’s been campaigning in nursing homes?
That, ladies and gentlemen, is a candidate who has taken the gloves off and is willing to do what it takes to win.
Democrats, please take note.
Linda Featheringill
@cat48:
I don’t depend on the WSJ for political analysis because I don’t think they understand how ordinary people think.
Of course, I would take the Dem win regardless of the reasons.
Gwangung
@cleek: well, at least when your segment of the party polls that low. And I think you can make a case progressives aren’t much more that 10-20 percent of the party.
To do what they want, think they need at leat 30-40 percent.
Beta Magellan
@cat48:
No problem with the WSJ saying this—there’s nothing worse for a party’s electoral prospects than to believe its own spin.
fasteddie9318
@Linda Featheringill:
Well, that and the fact that they don’t do “analysis” so much as they “push naked propaganda.”
Ash Can
@cleek: If 2000 didn’t teach the puri-trolls that, nothing will.
Brian R.
@Beta Magellan:
Agreed. Let ’em believe their own lies.
The closed information loop of the Republican-Fox-Tea Party is going to be its downfall.
Comrade Luke
FYI – RSS feed is borked. It’s showing an excerpt instead of the full post.
chopper
@cat48:
i love this. no, it has nothing to do with the ryan plan. it has to do with the fact that there’s a lot of GOP infighting over the ryan plan. totes different.
AnotherBruce
(Rubs hands in glee)
Reichert, I’m looking at you!
Frankensteinbeck (The ex-Uloborus)
@Brian R.:
That loop is the only reason they thought trying to publicly destroy Medicare was a good idea. They’ve been gunning for it since at least Reagan, but they used to be smart enough to know they’d have to do it on the quiet. Now they’ve convinced themselves the country WANTS it.
AnotherBruce
@cleek: Um, I’m not in favor of a primary for Obama, but there is a difference between “primary” and “the election”.
Studly Pantload, a full-service schmuck
@Ash Can
Fuck ’em. My prediction is that by taking out bin Laden, Obama has Nader proofed himself for ‘012 (via offset). And we all can enjoy a hearty laugh at FDL’s expense without worry.
Villago Delenda Est
If there’s anyone in this country intimately familiar with that which is “untrue”, it would be the slimebuckets of the WSJ editorial board.
KC
Well, we’ll see what the voters have to say. I am far from declaring victory yet. Moreover, whatever one thinks about the Ryan plan, I’ve been told repeatedly by the Washington Post that he’s serious, a solid intellectual; a youthful man of vigor and vitality willing to make the right sacrifices for the good of America. If the Dem wins, it won’t be because of him or the plan. It’ll be because older voters do not recognize the intellectual serious and heft of Ryan and his plan. At least that’s what I expect to be told.
Of course, if the Dem loses, I expect to be told something similar.
Fred
@cleek: Yea, there must be dozens and dozens of people who want to primary Obama. All of them earn a living criticising him.
merrinc
This is absolutely fucking BRILLIANT. But given that Republicans are making a concerted effort to
stop potential Democratic voters from votingstop voter fraud (see Kay’s excellent post), we can expect to see new restrictions that will impact the nursing home bloc. Hey, if college students are too immature and uneducated to vote, geezers in an assisted living situation surely don’t have the mental wherewithal to vote, amirite?Studly Pantload, a full-service schmuck
@chopper
I saw what you did there with that very sharp scalpel.
Linda Featheringill
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FoxNewsPoll.pdf
Very interesting poll, considering who commissioned it.
I am not familiar with the polling group but I would assume that if they have a bias, it is towards the right. If the respondents are people who might actually watch FoxNews, I would imagine that Osama might be quite important to them. Click on the link for expanded polling results.
rustlemeup
The “Ind/Other” column in the crosstabs is killing Corwin. And with the enthusiasm gap evidenced by lack of support for Calamity Jane in letters in the papers and comments on even tea bagger websites, coupled with t-storms forecast Sunday through Wednesday next week, she can’t reverse the tide in time.
Linda Featheringill
@merrinc:
Residents of nursing homes AND their families, who know very well that most folks cannot pay for those expenses out of their own pockets.
AnotherBruce
@Linda Featheringill: It’s interesting that the majority of the respondents in that poll say that Obama should be re-elected. But it’s even more interesting that an even bigger majority say he will be re-elected. I’m guessing if the election were held today the results would fall somewhere between those two numbers.
Barb (formerly Gex)
@cleek: Ding ding ding! We have a winner.
GregB
NH just had a special House election to fill the open seat left when a GOP-er went on to become the handmaiden of the GOP Speaker of the House, Bill O’Brien, who’s as fascist and reactionary a dill-bag as I have ever seen.
Anyhow, this past Tuesday the Democrat, Jen Daler mopped the floor with the GOP-er with 59% of the vote in what is the 16th most Republican district in NH and has the hometown of the GOP-er Speaker within the district.
Maine also had a special Senate election that went the way of the Dems too.
I think these fuckers are trying to burn the place down with their voter suppression laws, but they should realize that President Obama is the man with all of the military divisions, not Speaker Boehner.
Villago Delenda Est
That is pretty low. She’s actually put her own electoral effort ahead of the needs of Galtian airline executives.
bryanD
No one votes in their local precinct based on peregrinations inside the US Congress.
I expect Obamacare is the bigger issue, Up or Down, as uncomfortable as that fact might be to some. (Has there ever been LESS pride exhibited over so *supposedly* a just and “popular” program by supporters and sponsors, ever?)
Villago Delenda Est
@bryanD:
More wishful whistling past the graveyard crap from a Rethug operative.
Boring.
GregB
@bryanD:
In less than one paragraph you negate the whole premise of your post while using a ten cent word to boot.
Effing brilliant.
GregB
The fact that the GOP is scared shitless and batting back this theory means that they are scared shitless and batting back this theory.
Paul Ryan’s plan and the GOP vote will end up being this generations Pickett’s Charge.
Villago Delenda Est
@GregB:
Bingo.
Ryan’s plan is deadly poison, and the GOP knows it. Gingrich blurted out the truth last Sunday, and now he has to run away from his own words, and, in one of the most nakedly Orwellian moves I’ve seen on the national scene, insists that anyone who shows a clip of his gaffe is lying.
How far does this rabbit hole go down? Man, to be heavily invested in popcorn futures right now…
Fred
@Villago Delenda Est: If they knew it they would have never tabled it then voted for it. They know NOTHING of the sort! Not then, not now. They are still in denial. Playing the victim and blaming the libruuul media and what not.
Gingrich is just a side show playing the broken clock that is right twice a day.
Villago Delenda Est
@Fred:
Fred, I think many of them do know it. It’s just that they’re riding this tiger that will eat them if they dare to blurt out the truth, as Gingrich did. Gingrich forgot about the tiger, being the arrogant ass that he is.
They’re hoping that they can salvage something in 2016. 2012 is already over, GOP prospects as dead as Osama bin Laden.
MikeJ
@Ash Can:
There are people who will be able to vote in the ’12 election who were 6 years old when last the purity lesson was taught to Dems. It would be nice if they could watch and learn from other people failing instead of doing it to our party again.
boss bitch
@Cliff:
uhm, where do you think she got her instructions from?
Frankensteinbeck (The ex-Uloborus)
@Fred:
Naaah, I think it’s better than that from our perspective. The GOP is split badly into three camps. A) There’s the Tea Partiers, the absolute loons who Bush convinced HAD to insist on the purity of their paranoid visions lest the world be destroyed. B) There’s the Old Guard, of whom Gingrich is an excellent example, who are merely power hungry assholes but at least are rational. C) There’s the Echo Chamber, the pundits and their devoted fans led by FOX and Rush who truly and honestly believe in a world that doesn’t exist where Medicare is totally unpopular and Obama can’t talk without a teleprompter.
Most of the money men and leaders are in category B. They’re utterly helpless. A rules the primaries, and C rules the noise machine that scares them back into line when someone like Gingrich points out the obvious, that the Ryan plan is *political* poison.
The up side is that this is hilarious and causes them to overreach again and again, leading to split races and depressing a base they’d managed to stoke into a fury. The downside is that even though they’re shooting themselves in the face to do it, they’ll fight to the death for policies that are straight out of psycho town.
Roger Moore
@bryanD:
Paging Mitt Romney, please come to the courtesy blog.
Roger Moore
@MikeJ:
Honestly, though, the purity trolls in the Democratic party are at the extreme fringe. It’s the other guys who are tearing themselves apart with purity fights.
Keith G
@GregB:
Until the next bright shiny object comes along.
It is not wise to dance on the GOP’s grave this far from an election.Have you learned nothing from slasher movies? The monster always gets back up.
boss bitch
Speaking of unlikely wins in red areas:
http://blog.reidreport.com/2011/05/the-importance-of-being-jacksonville/
Sorry, if this was talked about already. I ran a search on the site and didn’t see anything so I’m assuming it wasn’t discussed.
gwangung
@MikeJ: Yeah, but that’s the nature of the young. They’ll learn from history only if is within their experience, and then slot of em will stop after a certain age.
Bill Murray
@Studly Pantload, a full-service schmuck: But since Gore lost because of Republican vote stealing and the supreme court, what difference does this make? I mean I know hater’s got to hate, but the anti-purity troll, purity trolling is just stupid.
Robert Waldmann
two very striking numbers from the Sienna poll are 16% and 37%. These are the fraction of people who still (stillll !) say they plan to vote for Davis who say they have a favorable opinion of Corwin and Hochul respectively.
These numbers are valuable as they teach us something about something strange and incomprehensible — first the people who would consider voting for Davis even though he isn’t running against Osama Bin Laden (don’t laugh John Ashcroft lost to a dead opponent) and second the people who still say they will vote for him now that it is clear that he is a nut case who also has no chance of winning.
Those numbers give megastrong support for the idea that Davis voters will break for Hochul.
slightly behind and 16% approval among voters for the fading third party candidate is not where one wants to be. Well, now that I think of it NY 26 (suburbs of Buffalo) isn’t where I ever wanted to be anyway.
Spaghetti Lee
If the winner gets below 50%, does it go to a runoff or what?
Brian R.
@bryanD:
Yes, people are going to make this election a referendum on a law that was passed a while back that has zero chance of repeal. Genius.
WaterGirl
@Robert Waldmann:
How so? I am not a poll person,but I don’t see how those numbers say anything about how those voters will break, or even whether they may stick with Davis. Could you explain?
Dollared
@cleek: Uh, what? This has nothing to do with a primary. This is why AFTER the primary, you have to vote for the winner of the primary.
Dollared
@Ash Can: Primary. Third party. Two.Different.Things.
Dollared
@Keith G: This. This. This. Must destroy their brand now, as hard as possible. Make it stick. Find a way to make it as memorable as Al Gore’s SUV.
jayackroyd
If you are in NYC, there is phone banking Tuesday at Carolyn Maloney’s Manhattan field office, which happens to be less than a block from my building. Drop me a note at [email protected] if you want more info. Oddly enough, I ran into Maloney at the local Starbux this morning, replenishing my Italian Roast supply. She said, re Hochul, “She can win!”
Online phonebanking here: http://CallNY26.com
Sammi
@boss bitch: Thank you for posting about this Dem win in a red area of Florida. I’m hopeful that Rick Scott’s and Allen West’s extremism will repel moderate voters in 2012.
OzoneR
What’s funny about this is how even though Hochul is going around talking about the need to cut the deficit and take care of the debt and lower taxes (albeit not by cutting Medicare), the blogsphere is pretending like she’s the new progressive champion, when she’s actually running as a Blue Dog.
I’m sure when Rep. Hochul votes as a Blue Dog, we’ll pretend its the worst sell out ever.
Dollared
@OzoneR: So true.