In the three-way special election in NY-26, a new Siena poll was just released showing Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Jane Corwin,
48-32 42-38 (MOE 3.9%). Erstwhile teabagger Jack Davis is bringing up the rear with 12%. The Republican conventional wisdom on this race was that Republicans who were flirting with Davis would come home to Corwin, but it looks like the opposite is happening. Hochul has gained 11 points since the last Siena poll, and Corwin has gained 2.
Looking at the crosstabs [pdf], Corwin is down by a point in the most conservative, rural and oldest part of the district. That’s devastating for the Corwin campaign and for Republicans in 2012, because it shows that the Hochul strategy of telling the truth about Corwin’s support of the Ryan plan is taking a big bite. Hochul and her spokespeople have been visiting nursing homes in the district to press home the attack, and it’s clearly working.
The election is Tuesday, the momentum in this race is on Hochul’s side, and the Corwin campaign is a complete fail parade. Yesterday, a local newspaper excoriated Corwin for a misleading Chamber of Commerce ad that made it look like they had endorsed Corwin. And, to top that, Corwin, in league with House Republicans, was first to release the news that an amendment opposed by families of Flight 3407 had been pulled. I’ll let you follow that last link by Buffalopundit to get a full taste of how low Corwin will go, and how desperate her campaign has become.