It looks like it may be possible to “see” a major earthquake days before it happens:
[…]They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.At the same time, satellite observations showed a big increase in infrared emissions from above the epicentre, which peaked in the hours before the quake. In other words, the atmosphere was heating up.
These kinds of observations are consistent with an idea called the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism. The thinking is that in the days before an earthquake, the great stresses in a fault as it is about to give cause the releases large amounts of radon.
Research is in its early stages, but the image at that link is very compelling. I had no idea this was even remotely possible.
WereBear
This actually supports the theory that our pet cats & dogs can “know” an earthquake is coming; there’s stuff out there they are better at picking up with their raw senses than we are.
dmbeaster
Problem with this issue is that the phenomena is not at all consistent, nor does it mean that there will be a large quake. In other words, there can be large quakes without it, nor does detection equal a large quake. But if detected it does correlate to a greater likelihood.
cleek
there are videos from China from just before the last big quake there, where you can see the atmosphere shimmering for some unexplained reason.
here’s one
ChrisS
@dmbeaster:
This here.
It’s a crapshoot. I’d guarantee that it helps to predict that an earthquake will happen soon. The problem is that difference between human-soon and geologic-soon is too great to be worth much.
The Ancient Randonneur
Big question will be if they can observe enough earthquakes to make this more than just an interesting, but extreme, data point. That little Regression to the Mean thingy can get in the way of some really cool shit.
Keith G
Some hack said that these satellite observation images are not beautiful. Could you please find and post a dozen of so of the most beautiful of these images? Over several posts?
stuckinred
And if California slides into the ocean
Like the mystics and statistics say it will
I predict this motel will be standing until I pay my bill
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
bad for people trying to link, but good news for a certain phone manufacturer.
4tehlulz
Earthquakes? Heat the air? More nonsense from the global warming religion.
TooManyPaulWs
You know what this means?
Republicans will get to dismiss yet another field of science when the time comes to pass legislation for funding a global quake detector system.
“Geology? Ha! If God meant for Man to know about seismic disasters…”
akamom
Um. Color me skeptical. The hypocenter occurred beneath about 30 km of earth materials and about 1 km of ocean water. How did the postulated radon gas release manage to diffuse through these materials and still remain a ‘bulls-eye’? Would be helpful to see a year’s worth of plots over the same region… And where’s the earthquake to go with the bulls-eye near the triple junction on March 12th?
long ago
Which shouldn’t it be remotely possible?
It’s remote sensing, after all–how else is it going to be possible?
djork
HAARP!!!!!
[/conspiracy theorist]
gex
I’m pretty sure natural disaster monitoring is a frivolous waste of taxpayer money. Isn’t it Bobby J?
I wonder if poor people are more likely to perish in a natural disaster than those who are not. I’d guess so. And by libertarian/conservative argument techniques, I can assert that as fact. I’m sure the evidence will back me up.
punkdavid
Well, we should be seeing the radon for the 24 earthquakes set to happen on Saturday night for Judgment Day right about now.
arguingwithsignposts
Speaking of earthquakes, TEPCO has released photos from Fukushima on the day of the tsunami.
Redshift
@gex:
Earthquakes, definitely (at least if you’re talking about national level of wealth; not sure how much of an effect of local wealth/income there is.)
I can’t remember who said “Earthquakes don’t kill you, falling buildings kill you,” but it’s true. Your chances of being killed in an earthquake are largely determined by building codes where you live.
Similarly, a friend in Florida pointed out that if you have money there, you live in a big one-story house; if you don’t, you’re more likely to live in a multi-story building. One story is much better for hurricanes, but you have to have money to afford the land for it.
gene108
Neither did I, but I guess some interesting things are possible, if you keep doing pure scientific research and don’t gut science funding.
ruemara
Hmm, I have friend working on earthquake-y things like this. This sounds amazing, if it’s true.
cyntax
Very interesting. Kind of explains why we always called hot, muggy, and cloudy weather “earthquake weather” here in the Bay Area.
Maude
Granite counter tops cause radon emissions, also, too.
Dr. Psycho
Next thing you know, they’ll be wanting to spend our money on something like “volcano monitoring”….
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=59033969633
Carol from CO
@WereBear: The night before a 5.5 quake in Colombia, my dog scared the heck out of me and others in the house by pacing and growling, which was not typical of her. Being in Colombia, my first thought was a burglar, but no. It had to be noise and or movement not detectable by me and other humans.
Jewish Steel
@Maude:
Ha! Funny+true.
Cris (without an H)
Earthquakes have an aura! I told you it was all about the ley lines.
meander
Whether or not this method is valid, one thing that we know will work and can save lives is an earthquake warning system. After the most recent quake struck Japan, their warning system gave residents and equipment in Tokyo a few seconds notice so that people could prepare, elevators could stop at the next floor and open the doors, surgery could be postponed, fire station doors could open, trains could slow down, and etc. Just a few seconds can do wonders! Scientists say that a system could be implemented in California (e.g., this story from KQED’s Quest), but — surprise! surprise! — they can’t find the funding to implement it (gotta keep those tax breaks going for the ultra-wealthy, after all). So the significant next quake will have far more casualties and property damage than necessary.
FWIW, the Japanese warning system was a response to the damage and injuries caused by the Kobe quake. In California, we didn’t do the same after the 1989 Loma Preita or later Northridge quake.
priscianus jr
@meander:
The Californian does not put the same high price on life as does an Oriental. Life is cheap in California.
trixie larue
I sure hope that no public monies are funding this research. This is hokum and the people studying it were probably all educated at crappy public schools.
In just a few generations, there won’t be anyone able to put the pieces together. It will all fall back to spirits, magic, things that can’t possibly be explained. And praying still won’t help anything.