Not surprising

An (admittedly small sample) Public Policy Polling survey finds that if Wisconsin voters could re-do their votes from last November, they’d vote against Scott Walker by seven points. The shift is mostly caused by independent and Republican members of unions turning against Walker.

This is pretty much exactly what I thought would happen here. The longer this goes on, the more the anti-Walker feelings of union members solidify, the more it hurts Wisconsin Republicans in 2012.






77 replies
  1. 1
    Sue says:

    Actually, I think this affects the whole country. Walker won’t just turn WI blue in 2012, he’ll have a hand in other states as well, where the solidarity rallies have been pretty well attended.

  2. 2
    General Stuck says:

    Rasmussen polling shows 123 % of Wisconsin voters loves them some Scott Walker and 101 % want to have his baby. Polling margin of error. 0 %, Why? cause we’re white and you probly aren’t .

  3. 3
    JPL says:

    Aren’t there a few WI Repubs that can be recalled now?

  4. 4
    cyntax says:

    @Sue:

    Here’s hoping that this becomes a watershed moment.

  5. 5
    Scott says:

    @JPL: Yeah, I wonder how many current Republicans in the WI Legislature are running the risk of getting recalled by their constituents.

  6. 6
    Doug Hill says:

    @JPL:

    There are about 8 of them. I don’t know how they voted yet or if they’ve voted yet (I think only the House voted on this so far).

  7. 7
    Studly Pantload says:

    Wisconsin voters: Fool ’em . . . they can’t fooled again!

    (To quote myself on the matter form the “Grrr” thread Randinho started where they’re talking about Lawdie knows what.)

  8. 8
    Mike in NC says:

    Has any governor in American history ever been given the old tar-and-feather treatment? The weaselly Scott Walker seems to be begging for it.

  9. 9
    General Stuck says:

    Mr. Hill, of note in that poll was a hefty shift of labor union voters that voted for Walker. They haven’t awakened a sleeping monster. Even right leaning labor folks in the midwest will not be forgetting this, and will likely make a certain trip to the polls in 012 to not vote GOP.

    edit – oopps I missed that part in your post about union support.

  10. 10
    kindness says:

    WTF were union people voting for Walker to begin with? Mind you, I’m not against voting for people of principle, even Republicans. I just can’t think of any principled Republicans since Senator Chafee or some other New Englander. Now days….they are all around the bend.

  11. 11
    alex says:

    If the Dems can capitalize on the salience of Republican opposition to unions, and can get union households to vote 70-30 (or more) Dem as opposed to 60-40, as well as retake their place as the party that is friendly to labor (both capital L and lower case) I see this as potentially changing the landscape.

    Democrats should be able to see what’s going on in Wisconsin as a wake-up call. People take labor rights for granted, and they also take for granted that their voice doesn’t matter. I see Wisconsin as a moment in which the open hostility that the Republican party has toward working people has gone from abstract and implicit to dramatic and explicit. I see no reason why this needs to be limited to Wisconsin. Knowing that an increased salience of unionism and labor rights leads to serious degradation of the Republican brand should lead Dems to press the issue elsewhere, and go on offense, especially in states with more union members.

  12. 12
    Mnemosyne says:

    @kindness:

    Michigan did it, too — the federal government bailed out the (unionized) auto industry, preserving tens of thousands of jobs in the state and, as thanks, Michiganders voted in a Republican governor and legislature.

  13. 13
    Arclite says:

    The longer this goes on, the more the anti-Walker feelings of union members solidify, the more it hurts Wisconsin Republicans in 2012.

    Yeah, even though the mainstream press didn’t cover it (it was on CNN website, 5th down in a sidebar halfway down the page), I can guarantee unions nationwide will make sure (if they haven’t already) that ALL of their members find out what happened in WI and OH, reducing the already somewhat low support Repubs had with unions. If for example, union members supporting Repubs drops from (currently) 45% to 30%, that is a million or more votes nation wide. That’s not a small amount.

  14. 14
    El Cid says:

    Good timing!

  15. 15
    Tom Levenson says:

    We need to be consolidating this as much as possible. time to get campus Dem groups going across the country is now.

  16. 16
    joel hanes says:

    There are eight Republican Wisconsin Senators currently eligible for recall.

    This Political Action Committee has been set up to fund and organize their recall, and the recall of Governor Scott Walker in Nov 2012 when he becomes eligible.

  17. 17
    Violet says:

    A week is a long time in politics. Will this really be a front burner issue by 2012? I’m not sure either way, just wondering.
    @kindness:

    WTF were union people voting for Walker to begin with?

    Aren’t those salt-of-the-earth, hardworking Midwesterner people sort of the Reagan Republican types? Maybe even some Teabaggery mixed up in there. I can see them voting Republican on social issues.

  18. 18
    You Don't Say says:

    And hopefully Republicans nationwide. The silver lining!

  19. 19
    jwb says:

    @Violet: You can count on the fact that the goopers will do everything in their power to make sure that we’re not talking about this come 2012.

  20. 20
    Violet says:

    @jwb:
    Which is why Tom Levenson is right and that unions and Dems and all of us need to be organizing around this now to keep up the pressure.

    BTW, what’s happening with the WI state Dem Senators who have fled the state? Are they still refusing to return? What’s the latest on that?

  21. 21
    Studly Pantload says:

    I used to know a right-leaning person who’s husband was in a union (grocery business). She’d speak about some of the strict rules they imposed (such as not working – or even appearing to be workikng – while not on the clock, lest one be subject to a fine) without seeming have a clue as to what protections those rules afforded the union’s members. So I could see where some might feel unions were a symptom of living in a Nanny State(tm).

  22. 22
    El Cid says:

    But… but…

    AMERICA SENT A CLEAR MESSAGE!

  23. 23
    JPL says:

    @Doug Hill: If they are in democratic areas, they would either have to come out against Walker or face recall. Doesn’t really matter that they haven’t voted yet, imo.

  24. 24
    Silver says:

    @kindness:

    Darkies and Mexicans taking their jobs.

    Same as it ever was.

  25. 25
    gbear says:

    Sounds like access to the WI capitol has been both petty and arbitrary today. I wonder how much of a surprise it will be to Walker when the sound of chanting demonstrators outside of the building can be heard indoors while he presents his budget to the joint legislative session tomorrow?

  26. 26

    So Walker is a left wing mole? A plant? A “trouble maker”?

  27. 27
    Violet says:

    @gbear:
    I saw that. It seems crazy that the media and lobbyists are allowed in, but not regular people. It’s “the people’s house.” Sheesh.

  28. 28
    Omnes Omnibus says:

    @Chuck Butcher: I am going with idiot.

  29. 29
    gbear says:

    @Violet: Even a democratic legislator wasn’t allowed in because she refused to show her ID. She had to sneak in with a reporter. What a bad joke.

  30. 30
    kideni says:

    @Violet: The Senate Dems are still out of state. The Republicans are now getting ever more petty by making it difficult or impossible for the Senate Dem staffers to do their jobs: they’ve changed the copier codes and won’t give the Dem staffers the new ones and Dem staffers have to pay for any printouts they make; the Senate majority leader has decided that only he can sign off on Dem staffers’ time sheets, and he may decide to let them all go. These Republicans are really ugly people.

  31. 31
    jl says:

    What is with the ‘small sample size’ Mr. Wobbly DougJ? I could find no info on the sample size or interval estimates. Where did you get info on sample size?

  32. 32
    jrg says:

    I’m having a hard time feeling sympathy for these folks with buyer’s remorse. The GOP has been spewing trickle-down bullshit since the ’80’s, and they’re just now catching on to how that might hurt labor?

    A lot of these people shouldn’t be voting Dem in 2012… They’re too stupid to be voting at all.

  33. 33
    Tonal Crow says:

    An (admittedly small sample) Public Policy Polling survey finds that if Wisconsin voters could re-do their votes from last November, they’d vote against Scott Walker by seven points.

    The sample size was 768. http://www.publicpolicypolling.....esults.pdf . At the 90% confidence interval, that gives a margin of error of just under +- 3%. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error ). That’s smaller than not-Walker’s margin of victory (7%). That means that — if the survey was random — we can be 90% confident [technically, slightly more than that] that, at the moment it was conducted, voters would vote in not-Walker.

  34. 34
    kindness says:

    C’mon now..my Dad was a union electrician and he was Republican. But that was when Nelson Rockefeller was the face of the NY Republican party. Had anyone spend one iota of bandwidth to listen to what modern Republicans said up to the election (& their little Teabagger dogs too – tried to allude in my best wicked witch delivery but sadly it slanders dogs far too much), their whole stand was to bring down Democratic reforms, transfer wealth to the top 2% (really the top 0.5% but they claim to be eglitarian). So…what is there to vote for? I don’t get it.

  35. 35
    Violet says:

    @gbear:
    Yeah, I saw that. That is wrong on so many levels. A media person is just waved in while an actual Representative has to show ID? Wrong, wrong, wrong! I can feel my blood pressure rising just thinking about it. Grrr…

    @kideni:
    Anyone who is involved in this strike, walkout, whatever has got to be prepared to go without pay and/or lose their jobs. It’s the only weapon Scott Walker has against them and he’s going to use it in hopes of breaking them. I hope they can stand strong, but jeez, losing your income can be a big incentive not to do what you’re doing. I can understand if they can’t hold out. I just hope they can.

    The Republicans are evil for doing it, but they’re trying to play hardball. I think it’s going to backfire on them with the WI voters. At least I hope so.

  36. 36
    trollhattan says:

    Once it breaks into double-digits, maybe they can recall his ass. Otherwise four years is too long for anybody to remmeber. Also, too, by now he must be on the Rep. VP short bus list.

  37. 37
    mrmike says:

    I was polled for this one.
    One thing to note is that they didn’t have a “I choose not to reveal how I voted previously” choice, just a “Don’t know/remember or Didn’t Vote” choice. I prefer to maintain the secret ballot in principle so I ended up in that 4-5%.

    The poll also included a lot of questions on Romney, Palin, Huckabee, and Paul as Presidential candidates and a bunch of “Do you generally agree/disagree or approve/disapprove” questions about WI senators and the Republican Pres candidates as well as Obama.

  38. 38
    The Moar You Know says:

    I’m having a hard time feeling sympathy for these folks with buyer’s remorse. The GOP has been spewing trickle-down bullshit since the ‘80’s, and they’re just now catching on to how that might hurt labor?
    __
    A lot of these people shouldn’t be voting Dem in 2012… They’re too stupid to be voting at all.

    @jrg: I’m really trying to come up with something along the lines of “you’re right, but people are easily duped by propaganda, etc, etc.” and then just decided to say fuck it and that you are 100% right. Any labor member who has ever voted for a Republican is, unquestionably, too stupid to breathe without explicit and written instructions.

  39. 39
    bemused says:

    Same old. People get buyer’s remorse only when they start hurting, not just those other people and not a minute sooner. Self centeredness and stupidity go hand in hand.

  40. 40

    My experience with living in WI is decades old, but if there was a defining element of the people I knew it was that they really liked to get along and don’t care for trouble makers stirring the pot needlessly.

  41. 41
    Violet says:

    @Chuck Butcher:
    So how do you square that with what is going on now? The protesters seem to be protesting nicely. Are they the “troublemakers”? Would the average Wisconsinite consider Walker to be a troublemaker because he won’t compromise? Or would they consider the Dems who fled the state troublemakers?

  42. 42
    jl says:

    @Tonal Crow:

    D’oh.

    I did not look next to the logo at the bottom margin. Thanks very much. I don’t see how that is a particularly small sample size in terms of usual standards for acceptable margin of error. It’s the absolute number that counts, not being small compared to WI population.

    I did read the questions, and it seems to be a robo telephone poll. that might be a problem Not sure if that is usual Public Policy polling practice.

    I hope it is correct.

  43. 43
    Tonal Crow says:

    @bemused: Ya. Lack of empathy will be America’s downfall. It’s given us the War on Drugsblack men, torture, Arizona Republicans’ death panels, the judicial repeal of the 4th and 5th Amendments, and on and on and on.

  44. 44
    GregB says:

    Have any Wisconsin Democrats thought of telling the 8 eligible for recall that they will not work to recall them if they change their vote?

  45. 45

    I’d say they’re looking at Walker. This is annecdotal and like I said, decades old experience. Now if you were to talk about the 60s I say the other.

  46. 46
    jl says:

    @mrmike: Hmmm… are you now, or have you ever been, representative of the WI population (they seem like angry lefties)?

  47. 47
    gbear says:

    @GregB: The one republican who has broken ranks isn’t even one of the eligible eight. I wonder if the democrats are willing to trust the republicans at all any more. What happens if three republicans say they’ll vote against it and then don’t follow through when the vote comes up? Trust has been completely broken in WI and the republicans have been shown to be without honor. I can’t see the democrats having the faith to come back for any vote now.

  48. 48
    bemused says:

    @kindness:
    They can’t hear any of that when they have fox translators imbedded in their brains.

  49. 49
    Madeline says:

    @Violet: As a lifelong WI resident … we do not like drama and we do like competence. Walker has shown a penchant for histrionics with his threats and the situation has devolved into barely concealed chaos. Can Illinois invade us? Please?

  50. 50
    Violet says:

    @gbear:

    What happens if three republicans say they’ll vote against it and then don’t follow through when the vote comes up? Trust has been completely broken in WI and the republicans have been shown to be without honor. I can’t see the democrats having the faith to come back for any vote now.

    I’ve been wondering the same thing. So a Republican says they’ll vote against it. Then they don’t. How would that hurt the Republican? It wouldn’t, really. Maybe they lose their current job, but no doubt the wingnut gravy train will have plenty of opportunities for a “principled conservative.” The Dems will have to have leverage that really matters, like holding the Republican’s kid hostage or something. Note: I’m not supporting or suggesting anything of the sort, but the leverage is going to have to be meaningful and most likely personal for it to work. The word of the Republican Senator is simply not trustworthy enough.

  51. 51
    Sly says:

    @jrg:

    I’m having a hard time feeling sympathy for these folks with buyer’s remorse. The GOP has been spewing trickle-down bullshit since the ‘80’s, and they’re just now catching on to how that might hurt labor?

    They’ve been spewing it since the Hoover administration. The term was coined by Will Rogers, in his Weekly Articles, after Hoover was thrown out of office:

    “The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it to the people at the bottom and the people at the top will have it before night, anyhow. But it will at least have passed through the poor fellow’s hands.”

  52. 52
    bemused says:

    @Tonal Crow:
    I’ve always thought it was in the 1980’s that I started noticing a “me, me, me” change in americans.

  53. 53
    Violet says:

    @bemused:
    Weren’t the 70’s the “me decade”?

  54. 54
    Nick says:

    Least of which is because people would actually show up and fucking vote this time.

    if only Dems had nominated REAL DEMOCRATS instead of Tom Barrett and Russ Feingold.

  55. 55
    bemused says:

    @bemused:
    You could be right. I was too busy with 3 little kids in the 70’s to pay much attention to what the adults in the world were doing. Later, when I took a look around, it kind of hit me how self-involved, determined to get rich and have everything NOW people had gotten.

  56. 56
    AnotherBruce says:

    @Violet: You are right, midwesterners tend to be social conservatives. But they are for the most part economic liberals. FDR democrats as it were. It’s an aging industrial area as well as a mixture of subsidized farm states. So many of these states are battleground states in elections because of the social/economic tensions. That being said, it’s amazing to me how many people bought into blaming the Democrats for the economic stagnation and elected Republicans. It took less than a month in office for the Republicans to reveal their inner lizard.

  57. 57
  58. 58
    Judas Escargot says:

    I’m having a hard time feeling sympathy for these folks with buyer’s remorse.

    Same here, lately.

    2012 is a long ways off. And 2014 even longer: Sadly, if I had to put $100 of my own money down, I’d vote for Walker to get a second term.

    The “Walker, despite a chaotic first year in office, has shown the voters and taxpayers that’s he’s willing to make the tough choices” narrative practically writes itself.

  59. 59
    daveNYC says:

    How does this not end with either the Democrats caving and coming back, or Wisconson having to trundle along until 2012 without a budget being passed?

    Walker doesn’t seem interested in backing down, there’s no reason to think that even if he does say uncle that he won’t be pulling a bait and switch in order to get the quorum number they need. So either the Democrats have to stay outside the state until he gets voted out, or they come back and risk being screwed.

  60. 60
    ruemara says:

    @Scott:
    8. And don’t be afraid to throw a few bucks at the recall movemet.

    wisconsinrecall.net

    if I recall. No pun intended.

  61. 61
    Violet says:

    @Judas Escargot:
    I agree. The “comeback kid” narrative is just ripe for the writing.

  62. 62
    FlipYrWhig says:

    @kindness:

    So…what is there to vote for? I don’t get it.

    There’s voting to punish Democrats who want to take your hard-earned money and waste it on moochers and colored folks. That’s the entirety of modern Republicanism. You think, “My life is hard and I don’t ask for anything, but someone out there is living the high life on handouts instead of busting their ass like I do.”

  63. 63
    buckyblue says:

    You can always count on a republican to over play their hand. Even as we speak (write), the republican head of the senate in WI is bolting windows shut to keep food out for protestors; seemingly not able to see how this would look to the public at large. Meaning, petty and stupid. Recalls are starting on several republican senators with the closest victory margin. Roberta Darling won with less than a 1% margin. Her district is recalling her and I will gladly drive the half hour to get there and collect signatures.

  64. 64
    Violet says:

    @buckyblue:
    Link to post about windows being welded shut on the capitol building. Just when you think the Republicans can’t stoop any lower…

  65. 65
    losingtehplot says:

    I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked – they are traitors and a disappointment to teh cause

    http://www.alternet.org/story/.....1&t=8

  66. 66

    @The Moar You Know: Agreed.

    There’s been more than enough evidence showing that the Repubs will screw you over nine ways still Sunday, but people still vote for them.

    Oh, and let’s not forget the principled assho–I mean, folks who insist on the bulls**t “They’re all the same” garbage and are now howling about how they sit out the election of 2012. Well, they sat out 2010 because they didn’t get their ponies…are they happy with the results, say in Wisconsin?

    Sorry for the rant, but…

  67. 67
    priscianus jr says:

    @Mike in NC:

    Has any governor in American history ever been given the old tar-and-feather treatment?

    In all the annals of history I cannot find a single case of a governor being tarred and feathered. The nearest I have come across is when Adjt. General Thomas J. Tarsney of the Colorado State Militia, personal representative of Governor Davis H. Waite, was kidnapped and tarred and feathered outside of Colorado Springs shortly after midnight on the morning of June 23, 1894.

  68. 68
    Elie says:

    @Sue:

    TOTALLY Agree

  69. 69
    piratedan says:

    well lets not forget how good the Rethug media machine is, lets face it, they throw a LOT of cash into those ads and effectively attack any perceived weakness and aren’t above twisting facts for their own edification. So you have well funded folks preying upon peoples fears and prejudices with a smattering of out of context quotes and cherry picked facts and yeah, I can see how they can pick off folks to vote for them.

  70. 70
    losingtehplot says:

    another aspect of walker’s dastardly deeds – not content with the able-bodied, he’s going for the wheelchairs

    http://www.planet-of-the-blind.....e-now.html

  71. 71
  72. 72
    'Niques says:

    @Violet:

    The word of the any Republican Senator is simply not trustworthy enough.

    fify

  73. 73
    'Niques says:

    @Violet:

    The word of the any Republican Senator is simply not trustworthy enough.

    fify

  74. 74
    liberal says:

    @piratedan:
    But then again, who’s going to trust a campaign ad?

  75. 75
    AxelFoley says:

    Y’know, thinking about the recent elections just reminded me of something:

    2008 – A New Hope

    2010 – The Empire Strikes Back

    So…

    2012 – Return of the Jedi?

  76. 76
    piratedan says:

    @liberal: part of the problem is the education of the American Idol electorate. After watching Wheel of Fortune how do you get joe average off his butt to become an informed citizen if he and Mary are working jobs and getting kids through school. Not everyone is wired enough to give a crap.

  77. 77
    pkdz says:

    State Senator Dale Schultz, Republican, is not saying which way he is going to vote. He spoke at the high school in Dodgeville (pop. 4220) and 450 people came. People were mostly against the budget bill.

    http://host.madison.com/wsj/ne.....002e0.html

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