When I wrote that I thought that important parts of health care reform would get voided by the Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision, a lot of readers who are lawyers told me that I and the non-lawyer commenters who agreed with me were a bunch of idiots who sounded like FDL commenters. I’m not complaining, I like threads like that. So I want to do another one.
What’s your prediction on the final SCOTUS decision here? I mean in terms of 5-4 against health care, 7-2 for it, etc. Mine is 5-4 against it, but I wouldn’t be shocked by 5-4 for it, I don’t know how Kennedy will vote.
So how about everybody gives their prediction for: (a) the numbers and direction of the SCOTUS decision, (b) their reasoning for why it goes down that way, and c) what they were saying before Bush v Gore?
I’ll start: (a) 5-4 against health care reform, (b) the Republican judges vote against it because they are Republicans, and (c) I mostly thought Bush v Gore would go 9-0 for Gore but a legal scholar friend almost convinced me it would be 5-4 for Bush. I don’t know if c) is reason for increased cynicism on my part or increased faith in people who have some knowledge of legal issues.
I would like to add, though, that I don’t see how lawyers can call my prediction crazy unless they think Dahlia Lithwick is crazy too:
This will continue all the way up through the appeals process, until it slowly laps up to Justice Anthony Kennedy’s toenails, then his ankles, and then his chin. This is not really a constitutional debate; it’s about policy preferences, and it will be resolved someday in Kennedy’s prefrontal cortex.