Various sources — notably Jake Tapper here, and Politico here — are reporting that “White House officials” expect Jon Huntsman (right, with one of his daughters) to leave his job as ambassador to China “in the coming months,” to consider running against Barack Obama next year.
The “in the coming months” part strikes me as non-news. I believe it was generally understood that the Huntsmans had made a two-year commitment to the job, which would take them through this summer.
The “assumed to be considering a run” part is quite different. I really like Jon Huntsman personally and respect him politically. I continue to think that he was an inspired choice for the job in Beijing. I believe he represents a tenable national future for the Republicans when they are past the Tea Party stage.
But these reports, which he now quite notably has not knocked down, create an impossible situation. If he is seriously planning a run to take the White House away from Obama, how can he continue to serve in the Administration?* How can Obama keep him? Unless, for clever sandbagging purposes, Obama is driving home his closeness to Huntsman, and also delaying the (already late) start to his campaign, to handicap him in the Republican primaries.
When the reports first came up, I laughed them off. But it’s striking now that Huntsman has failed to do the same. What I’d like to see — for the nation’s interest, and (in my view, but what do I know?) for Huntsman’s — is for him clearly to put them to rest. Says that of course he’s a Republican, and of course he’ll support the GOP ticket in 2012. But he’s doing the nation’s business now in Beijing, and doesn’t want to complicate that with all this political gossip. To me as armchair strategist, staying out of the 2012 fray would seem to save him a lot of heartache. Avoiding a primary fight in this bitter season, when he’s fresh off Team Obama; and, if he survived that, avoiding a general election battle when — one assumes — the economic cycle should be improving. If that economic assumption is wrong, everything else changes. But if that were the case and Obama seemed gravely weakened, I am not sure that makes a moderate, rather than a red-meat conservative, the most likely Republican candidate.
Huntsman is pretty much the last man standing in the non-crazy wing of the GOP, and assuming the teahadist wing of the GOP (the majority) comes to their senses and realizes that the entire country gets to vote for President, not just Republicans, so nominating batshit insane people might be a bad idea, I think he could win. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the next President, whether it be 2012 or 2016.
I’m curious to see if he, too, gets co-opted by the crazy.
soonergrunt
Well, then Obama’s OK then.
Stefan
Huntsman is pretty much the last man standing in the non-crazy wing of the GOP, and assuming the teahadist wing of the GOP (the majority) comes to their senses and realizes that the entire country gets to vote for President, not just Republicans, so nominating batshit insane people might be a bad idea, I think he could win.
Assuming everybody votes for me, I think I could win, too.
These assumptions aside, though, neither scenario is that plausible.
me
Will the GOP nutters be able to shrug off his Mormonism?
Dave
I don’t think the Tea Partiers are coming to their senses any time soon. And Huntsman’s working in the Obama Admin makes him instantly suspect to these people. And since the primary process is a grass-roots exercise where an enthusiastic minority can have a large influence…if Huntsman runs, he won’t be the nominee.
KG
2016, no way Huntsman runs in 2012. He wouldn’t even make it out of the primary because he was one of, what, two Republicans to actually work for the Obama Administration. No, 2012 is going to be a cycle where the GOP works the crazy out of its system.
Rathskeller
Sorry, I don’t see a non-crazy person doing well in the next GOP primaries. Huntsman does seem good, but he’s got to get through SC.
ETA: Criminy. I forgot he was Mormon. No, no way, not for years to come.
A Writer At Balloon-Juice
“I really like Jon Huntsman personally” blah blah blah.
It never ends with these people.
NorthernMNer
No, he can’t win. While I am loathe to compliment my former governor, Tim Pawlenty can telegraph a message very well. He will have Huntsman for breakfast in any debate, dropping helpful reminders of Huntsman working as a subordinate to BOTH Hillary Clinton (SoS) and Barack Obama (POTUS).
And that is before Mitt Romney carpet-bombs them all with television ads, starting sometime next week.
freelancer
You know, from what I know about Huntsman now, if he ran as an Independent in 2016, there’s a chance I might vote for him then. But that’s so far out that I might as well be guessing at when the Singularity occurs.
Redshift
I just don’t see him getting the nomination in a year when TPers are trying to primary Lugar (and labeling him a “liberal”) for the crime of sometimes being willing to work with Democrats to get things done.
Appointing him ambassador was a brilliant move, IMHO. It builds his resume in a very real way while at the same time associating him with the administration. It makes it more difficult for him to win the nomination and be a strong challenger in the near term, while building him up to be a leader if the GOP ever decides to be a sane opposition party again.
Ash Can
I don’t see how the GOP can burn through its raging case of crazy that quickly or that easily. I don’t see how Huntsman could be seen by the GOP voters as anything other than just another Mitt Romney, with the added bonus of having willingly worked for Obama. Huntsman’s time has not yet come, and he’s a fool if he can’t figure this out himself.
(Edited to fixt fuxt logic.)
Redshift
@KG:
And I thought I was an optimist…
guster
“I really like Jon Huntsman personally and respect him politically.”
Who the fuck cares? What information does that convey? ‘I need a valve replacement, and there’s this one heart surgeon who I really, really like!’
Judas Escargot
Romney was their best possible general election candidate in 2008, and he couldn’t make it past the GOP primaries. I don’t see why 2012 will be any different, esp. since Huntsman has much lower brand name recognition.
gnomedad
Props for this phrase; one of the many reasons I come here.
Another Commenter at Balloon Juice (fka Bella Q)
@Ash Can: Exactly. Huntsman will be seen by the wild wing of the GOP as worse than Romney because of his ambassadorship. He’s entirely too sane for the current GOP primary process, any religious issues aside.
The Dangerman
Mormon? Strike 1.
Worked in the Obama Administration? Strike 2.
Close ties to China coupled the xenophobic Right? Strike 3, sit down.
JGabriel
John Cole @ Top:
Thus inviting 37 jokes of the form, “Assuming [insert impossible, but amusing circumstance, like: schizophrenics can fly and power airplanes], then [insert corollary impossible, but amusing consequence: we could get terrorists to invent fast-acting anti-psychotics!].”
.
TomG
last man standing in the non-crazy wing?
What about Gary Johnson, former NM governor ? I can’t say his chances are at all good, but I wouldn’t count him down and out just yet.
jacy
1) Part of Obama administration. (traitor)
2) Mormon. (cultist)
3) Not outwardly batshit insane. (RINO)
(not necessarily in that order)
david mizner
Uh, yeah. A Mormon moderate in the GOP primary. Good chance — about as good as Randall Terry in the Democratic primary.
Cole, out of curiosity, do you read your own blog posts? Cause you’ve been writing for two years about how insane the GOP is.
Bulworth
Well, the teabaggers are working on that.
TR
@TomG:
Gary Johnson has come out strong for the legalization of pot. That means, in Republican circles, his political career is dead.
Zifnab25
I’m sorry, but Jon who? Kerry and McCain were old dogs in the Senate when they ran. Clinton and Bush were household names long before Hillary or Jr stepped on the campaign trails. Obama wrote two autobiographies in his run up to office. Who the fuck is Jon Huntsman is going to be the phrase of the 2012 season if he runs.
Does the man even have a Facebook?
Comrade Dread
If he’s a Mormon, then no. Not a chance.
Add to the fact that he’s worked for Barack Hussein Osama Bin Hitler Moussilini and not a chance in hell.
Throw in the last fact that he appears to be a Republican realist from the days before the entire party decided to jump head first into the crazy pond and hit their collective heads on the rocks of stupidity and I think his chance of winning the nomination are about as likely as a Congressman holding fast to the ‘forsaking all others’ part of his wedding vows.
gnomedad
And if my grandmother had balls …
Sorry. Thought I’d get that one out of the way.
lamh32
I think that if Huntsman makes it out of the primaries then yes he could be a real threat to Obama.
he’s the perfect alternative to those Reagan Democrats who are “wary” of Obama to back someone who may be a gop, but he’s def not the scary kenyan in the WH they have been leery of since he’s election.
he’s also be the perfect foil for those “gop” who voted obama cause he was “saner” and palin scared the shit out of them.
He’s also perfect for people, who left the GOP for whatever reason, but never quite acclimated themselves to Dem party, but the GOP was too crazy for them.
having said that, I don’t see him running let alone getting out of the primaries.
BGinCHI
After the Romney/Huntsman victory in 2012, how long will we be able to play cards and drink?
JGabriel
John Cole @ Top:
Seriously, though, doesn’t this assume a previously disproved peak wingnut from which they could descend?
.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Let me remind you (props to Barry G) that just because person X can’t win the nomination does not automatically mean they can’t be considered for and accept the #2 slot on the ticket. The best play for Huntsman to set up a serious 2016 run might be to be the sane and serious VP choice in 2012 (and hooboy will the Village line up in droves to polish him if that is the case). That way if Obama buries the GOP ticket he gets none of the blame and sets himself up as a front runner in 2016, and if it turns out that the Mayans were right (i.e. the 2012 GOP tickets wins) he gets to play Cheney to Palin’s George W.
Not bad work, if you can get it. But he has to quit the current admin soon if we wants to work this angle.
Amanda in the South Bay
@A Writer At Balloon-Juice:
I thought Fallows has some sort of demi-god status wherein he is actually a highly respected journalist in the MSM among the left?
Me, personally, he just seems like a wealthy, well connected journalist who loves name dropping and acting like a smug no it all, regardless of what other BJers, etc think.
daveNYC
Best case scenario for getting a sane crop of GOP candidates is 2016. For 2012, there’s no way they’re not putting up someone rabid, they really do seem to think tha the Tea Bagging got them the gains in 2010, and for 2014, I figure that the nutter wing will decide to quintuple down on the crazy.
Maybe by 2016 the crazy will have burned out somewhat. Then again, they really do seem to have bought into the idea that there’s no such thing as too conservative. Not to mention the whole xenophobic aspect of their messaging.
mr. whipple
That’s a total of, what, 19 people?
My GOP friends will never be shamed into leaving the GOP, no matter how much it gets crazier than them. They always have a ready excuse for staying on the crazy team.
djangone
I think you have to live in the West, and in particular to have been raised Mormon, to understand how little chance a Mormon has with fundie GOP voters. There are still people who think Mormons sport little devil horns on their head.
I met Huntsman when he was Ambassador to Singapore in the early 90s. He was a decent, callow cipher, and his Mandarin is fantastic. It brings up another canardish angle the whackjobs could take against him, Manchurian Candidate. Anyone wanting to kill off his run during the primaries has sooo many handles.
Biff Longbotham
I suppose it is possible that the Republicans, or at least the ones that vote in primaries, could eventually learn the lesson that pragmatism should trump orthodoxy if the goal is political power rather than posturing for their base. We’d have a different Senate today if they had already gotten the message. It might take a few more O’donnells and Angles to drive the point home, however. 2012? Too soon. They still have a mandate! /snark
Calouste
Another thing against Huntsman becoming the nominee is primary tactics. He and Romney will split the Mormon vote, and even though not all GOP primaries are winner takes all, it might cause someone else to sneak through. Nevada is the first primary state with a sizeable Mormon population.
Just Some Fuckhead
A Mormon that looks like sleazebag Terry McAuliffe winning the Republican nomination? I’ll believe it when I see it.
BGinCHI
@A Writer At Balloon-Juice: It’s straight out of the “blame the sin, not the sinner” playbook.
That really comes in handy for the Haves.
Death Panel Truck
You must be out of your fucking mind to believe that’s even a remote possibility. We’ll sooner have men on Mars.
New Yorker
Put me in the “he can’t possibly win the GOP primaries” category. To the type of person who voted in the Republican primary, Huntsman is a member of a vile satanic cult out to destroy Christianity. To top it off, he willingly worked with the Kenyan anti-colonial Nazi Marxist Muslim usurper who might also be the antichrist.
No way does Huntsman get the nomination in 2012.
BGinCHI
@Calouste: The Mormon vote?
You want to splain the reach of that demographic?
Tom Levenson
Infrastructure matters. Getting good fundraisers committed to you early matters. State chairs well wired into the particular processes of each primary and caucus state matter. Super-volunteer support matters. Getting going from state to city/town/precinct level is a time consuming business.
Oh…and did I mention fundraising? Chris Cilizza listed Huntsman’s team in a recent WaPo post. It’s heavy on McCain people, which isn’t as disastrous a prospect as it may seem. (McCain’s NH team did OK, for example.) But it’s a thin list, and none of them are (yet) exclusively attentive to Huntsman’s interests, barring his chief of staff. We are eleven months and change away from the first caucus and a year away from the NH primary. If Huntsman’s going to run and he doesn’t plan to start headlining that effort until the summer, it sounds very much to me as if he is (a) blowing smoke or (b) running for Veep.
Which wouldn’t necessarily be the stupidest idea ever: run for Veep, lose (probably) and be next in line for the open seat run in 2016.
And with that I’d better shut up, because I disdain punditry without knowledge, an act I have just commmitted above.
I’ll go back to the kitchen now and slaughter myself.
southpaw
Assuming the teahadists come to their senses, they could nominate Barack Obama too. He’s mostly pushing circa 1994 moderate Republican policy ideas.
Walter
Wow, that’s hurtful coming from you.
So if he’s a moderate, then what is he offering that Obama isn’t?…Oh wait, is it Whiteness.
Gin & Tonic
@Amanda in the South Bay: I’ve loved Fallows because he used, understood and championed one of the best pieces of software ever written, Lotus Agenda.
Calouste
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Except that losing VP candidates have an autrocious record in presidential elections. Mondale and Dole were the only ones in recent times who managed to get on the ballot again and they were VP candidates to sitting presidents.
PKG
@Walter:
Ding, we have a winner. Look for the village to have a major hard-on for this guy as a “unifier” to heal our “political divide.” (i.e., he doesn’t anger the racists at the Applebees salad bar). Politically, as a fairly liberal paleocon, he’s nearly identical to Obama.
I propose that anyone who wants to talk about Huntsman over the next year must preface their remarks by explaining exactly how he gets onto the GOP presidential ticket. Honestly, I think Obama dumping Biden and taking Huntsman as VP is a more plausible scenario, and I think that’s completely impossible.
The Moar You Know
@southpaw: Christ, this, right here. He’s already been the first black Republican president (old school Republican, not the toxic racist nutbags that came of age in the early 1990s) and unlike Huntsman, he’s not Mormon.
The GOP is going to go full-metal TeaTard in 2012, and they are going to hand President Obama, who would be going down in flames under any other circumstances, his second term on a gold-plated platter for doing so.
Carol
If Huntsman really wants to run, he needs to put some distance between the Obama Administration, the teabaggers, and have a chance to stand out for himself. If the Teabaggers get the candidate they want, 2016 might be early enough for the Republicans to nominate someone who’s not crazy. The best odds for Huntsman is 2020. He probably won’t be facing an incumbent Democrat who can raise a lot of money, and the Teabagger movement would have gone down to such a defeat that Republicans may be desperate enough to nominate a Mormon who has a real chance of winning. Lose enough, and moderation looks pretty good.
salacious crumb
for Mr. Hunstman to win, he could start by doing an imitation of Hu Jintao’s accent (or even better, that of young black man eating fried chicken and on his way to collect his welfare check..that’ll definitely make the teahadists happy)
gene108
Does he have a choice? Gov. Mike Huckabee raised taxes a bit, while governor of Arkansas, so he could put more money into schools and other such things that generally tend to help the common man. Huckabee is (was?) the only GOP figure, I’ve ever heard talk about doing something for the non-wealthy.
He had to run against his record, as governor, because of the tax increase. Despite being a minister and the social pull that should’ve had, the tax increase sunk his chances to win the GOP nomination.
He embraced the crazy to keep up his name recognition.
I don’t think Huntsmen has a choice, especially since he’s from Utah – probably Mormon, which caused Mitt Romney all sorts of identity politics type problems in 2008, with the Republican base and will cause him problems again in 2012, if he were to run again – and he’s ambassador to China, at a time when China’s is viewed as the biggest foreign threat to the U.S. and enemy number #1 for the common man.
I don’t see how someone, who hasn’t done anything to stop the flow of Chinese imports – and keep China from building a prototype stealth fighter (yikes! They are now only 25 years behind our latest technology, which means a new arms race is brewing per Fox News) – while ambassador has a chance to win the Republican nomination and win over independents, in a general election, who are largely threatened by outsourcing and China being the #1 destination for U.S. jobs (whether it’s true or not, it’s how the public perceives things). On a side note, I don’t think a former ambassador to China would win the Democratic nomination either, for the reasons stated above.
After the deficit, I think outsourcing, imports and the the lack of manufacturing jobs, caused by imports and outsourcing, in the U.S. are the next biggest “big bad” issue for most people, who would love to stop factories from setting up operations overseas and the U.S. to import fewer goods.
Plus, there’s the whole working with Obama thing, which I don’t think even “moderate” Republicans endorse.
Jon
The simple fact that I would not be completely bothered (i.e. charting out plans to move to England or buying canned goods) by this guy being President means that he’s never making it out of the GOP primaries.
Walter
@The Moar You Know: After HCR, Repealing DADT, setting the economy in the right direction, and a host of other accomplishments, far to many to list, explain to me why our President would or should be going down in flames. And explain what any republican, including the Great White Hope Huntsman, will do to make America better.
Alex S.
I don’t know… maybe he aims for 2nd place in the primaries since the GOP likes to nominate their candidates by “natural succession” (From Eisenhower to VP Nixon, to Goldwater who was 2nd in 1960, to Nixon again, to VP Ford, to Reagan who was 2nd in 1976, to VP Bush Sr. who also was 2nd in 1980 to Dole whose time had come or so, to the next member of the Bush dynasty, to McCain who was 2nd in 2000). The GOP does not have a natural heir at the moment since the 2nd place in 2008 went to three people (Romney, Huckabee, Palin). And I don’t see Huntsman’s road to the nomination. Romney has got New Hampshire locked up, I think. Iowa will go to either Huckabee or Palin, certainly not to a mormon. Huntsman will have to fight for Romney’s votes in every state, even the mormon vote. Romney’s weakness is his health-care law so Huntsman will have to come up with an alternative. He has to match Romney’s name recognition, organisation and fundraising. With Huntsman in, Huckabee becomes the most likely nominee.
jharp
“I think he could win”
Not a chance.
Mormon.
lamh32
@Walter:
I was just gonna post the Huntsman is probably the latest “great white hope” against obama. Politico’s article on the WH “bracing” for Huntsman resignation and possible Pres run so much as said that Huntsman paTH to the nom is the same as Obama’s was…i.e. Huntsman can play Obama to Romney’s Hilary.
And here I thought Thune was the “great white hope”
Peter J
One major problem for Huntsman if he’s not running in 2012.
Romney wins the nomination in 2012, loses the general election. I don’t see the republicans picking a Mormon again in 2016.
Romney wins the nomination in 2012 and the general election. I don’t see the republicans picking a Mormon in 2020.
Tsulagi
Well this post has all kinds of FAIL. Starting with this…
You’re still trying to cling onto that Peak Wingnut thing. There is no peak. There was a Big Bang of Stupid event right after 9/11. That expansion ain’t gonna contract any time soon.
If he really wanted the R-nomination, it would be a requirement. See McCain. The R primaries will be all about tax cuts, spending cuts, repealing “Obamacare” and who can thump their chests the loudest demanding them now mixed with outrage they don’t already have them.
Oh, and throw in a some anti-brown or whatever color du jour for a little spice. Electrify those fucking fences. An M2 in every Jesus lovin teahouse that can see Mexico from their windows to do God’s work. You know the drill.
ant
Isn’t Huntsman gay?
Cathie from Canada
Please, if the world has to suffer through another Republican administration in 2012 or 2016, we will give up on you.
It’s not about who is president, its all the Republican hangers-on and syncopates and anti-evolutionists who would follow any Republican president into the US government and take over your diplomatic service and your justice department and your FDA and NASA and your military once again. The horror!
Alex S.
@ant:
First tweet of Sarah Palin if Huntsman announces his candidacy.
jsfox
ABC
His chances in ’12 . . . slim and none.
Peter J
@lamh32: Best part from the article:
Keith G
@Calouste: Remember that sitting senators have a poor record – unless running against other senators, I guess.
Pangloss
@New Yorker: Angry, crazy 2010 John McCain would be too liberal for the GOP primary voters in 2012.
Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac
Huntsman is not too far from Obama, as a republican.
1)supports civil unions
2)supports climate controls (from the states, or a group of states, but not federal controls)
3)during utah’s surplus, pushed for the food tax cut, rather than the across the board tax cuts the state legislature wanted
If he runs in 2012, he’ll lose. My money is on him challenging orrin hatch in 2012 and winning, and then president in 2016. The only wrench is that Utah’s primaries are closed and run by insane people, so Huntsman might be seen as too liberal, but his popularity might allow the crazies to gloss over that fact.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Walter:
There is your problem right there.
Between now and the fall of 2012 the GOP controlled House in DC and GOP controlled statehouses in numerous state have plenty of time to saddle Obama with a 1937 style double dip recession caused by revanche disguised as fiscal retrenchment, with the added bonus of giving Bobo and David Broder a thrill. And that isn’t even getting into what will happen to the economy if they refuse to raise the Federal debt limit.
Of course the MSM could always call the GOP out for their obstruction and sabotage and saddle them with the blame.
Splitting Image
I’m surprised this thread got 60 replies before anybody mentioned Huntsman supported same-sex civil unions. Even without the Mormon thing, the China thing, and the non-batshit insane thing, the Teatards will eat him alive.
The only plausible path he has through the GOP primary is for him to be the best alternative available if/when the Chamber of Commerce wing of the party decides that the rest of the party is so dangerous to business interests that it had better rally behind someone sane and make sure no teabagger has a chance of winning. Even so, Huntsman would probably have to spend a billion dollars just to make it to the convention.
Barring that, I think he’d have to execute a dozen gays on national TV to make amends for the civil union thing. And the teabaggers would still vote for Palin anyway.
Punchy
“Huntsman” sounds like the kind of guy who’d the NRA would suppport.
lamh32
@Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac:
Now see, this makes sense to me. Becoming a Senator, and with 4 years under his belt, and the years as Governor, and Ambassador under his belt seems like a more logical step to the Presidency.
Silver Owl
2016 maybe, 2012 highly unlikely. First the tea baggers are going to hammer him for working for the Obama Administration, then there’s the whole China thing. A lot of people view the defection of jobs to China, plus cheap imports with revulsion now. I expect that Huntsman smoothed the way on many business deals.
JWL
I never even heard of the guy, and think that’s true with most voters.
As with any Mormon who runs for the presidency, I think a fair question and one that should be asked is: “Do you literally believe that an angel named Moroni revealed itself to Joseph Smith in America in the 19th century”?
Disclaimer: While I not believe that Jesus was any more the son of God than my late neighbor Saul, the ship has sailed where any question pertaining to his divinity is concerned. A politician in this country can safely lie through their teeth and answer in the affirmative without penalty. Fair or not, I do not believe the same is true with the Moroni myth.
Violet
So he was born in 1960. That would make him 56 if he ran in 2016 and 60 in 2020. How old is too old to win a presidential election these days? I know doddering old McCain won the nomination but compared to the youth and vigor of Obama he looked like an old man. Would his age make any difference on his decision to run one time vs another?
S. cerevisiae
@Cathie from Canada: That’s what worries me about a “sane” republican president. He will be forced to accept some snake handler to run EPA, etc. This is still a problem after 8 years of Bush that you have these Liberty U grads all over the civil service system.
lamh32
It seems that no one really seems to have an understanding of why Huntsman would want to run now. At least no understanding in terms of the current political environment. Huntsman may just really believe he could be President. I know that people like to say that who would have believed that Obama cold come for where is was to being a viable candidate. No one seems to realize that the political environment at the time was conductive to Obama’s kind of campaigning at the time at least on the Dem side. Today’s climate on the GOP side is such, that moderates are not greatly valued by the rank and file.
But anyway, this post by Daniel Larison is a pretty good read:
Huntsman 2012? Why?
Elizabelle
What about a third party run?
I agree with John. Guy is incredibly appealing. And the teabots and foxbots and Christianists have ruined the GOP
Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac
@Violet: He’s got the distinguished older man look going though, and he’s had that for a long time. People can forget how old you really are if you don’t sag and slouch and grimace and growl, a la McCain.
@JWL: you’re crazy if you think he’d answer that any more than any religious person has to answer honestly about the crazier aspects of their faith.
For all the doubters, I really think you’re underestimating this guy because Mitt was such a pushover. He had 75%+ support in Utah a week after saying that gays should have civil unions, even after people were reminded of his statement.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@lamh32:
If we could summon the ghost of Richard Nixon, I imagine he would tell us that Huntsman could benefit by cutting a backroom deal with the Palin camp: trade the promise of a VP spot on the ticket if Palin wins in return for cock-blocking Romney by splitting the Mormom vote in the primaries. That way Palin can stick a shiv in one of her strongest competitors while preserving a lifeline to the Mormons to smooth over any harsh feelings left over from the primaries.
phantomist
Lao Tribesman -vs- Mao Scribesman
2012 cage match.
lamh32
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
If I’m reading you right though, Palin would be at the top of the ticket right? Which would still be a disaster?
If Huntsman was at the top of the ticket, I’m not sure if that would increase the chances are not. I’m of the school that Palin on any position on the general ticket would be a disaster.
Liberal Sandlapper
Not gonna happen. No way, no how. Hell – these “rumors” of his even running are coming FROM BARACK OBAMA AND HIS CHIEF OF STAFF!! No fucking way.
This is nothing more than new air-filling specualation for talking heads like Andrea Mitchell.
celticdragonchick
@mr. whipple:
I guess I’m one of them.
Egypt Steve
I followed the link to the Atlantic story, with accompanying photo. Is Huntsman really our ambassador to China, or is he there doing a ventriloquist act? And can we be sure who in this photo, in fact, is the ventriloquist and who is the dummy?
Calouste
@Keith G:
It’s not about the general. Failed VP candidates tend to do pretty badly in the primaries. Edwards and Lieberman were below 10% when they ran in 2008 and 2004. Quayle announced in 2000, but withdrew before the primaries.
Mondale wasn’t a sitting Senator when he ran for President btw.
Another Commenter at Balloon Juice (fka Bella Q)
@The Moar You Know: I suspect that you make the pertinent point. The 2012 election season will feature Full Metal ‘Bagging. Which could provide some significant dem gains as the “success” of the teabag agenda will be clear to some, and those sane folks considered to be GOP will vote other than how they are considered.
mds
Yeah, the Mormon thing should be a killer in the GOP primaries, but the leaders of the American Taliban crave political power above any principle. It was already looking like the bosses were seeing Romney as their best bet in 2012, when Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention indicated that Mormonism is really just another sect of Christianity. Add to that that fundamentalists also tend to be Fox junkies who spend their days gobbling Beck’s Mormon knob, and the sale is made. (My parents sent me yet another End Times book about “economic apocalypse” from one of their fundamentalist cult fraud pastors, and not only is it straight out of Beck’s “Gold standard! FDR was a communist!” lunacy, Beck has apparently actually praised the book on his show.) So at the very worst, it seems to be a truce until all the leftists, Mooslims, and parasites upon Real Americans have been crushed. Then the wars over holy underwear can recommence.
As for Huntsman, I suppose he could try to thread the needle of wanting to make a responsible, bipartisan contribution, but becoming too fed up with the Obama administration’s left-wing incompetence. But there’s probably only room for one Mormon in the new détente. [Insert Highlander reference here]
Lolis
Cal me crazy but I wonder if this is the Obama administration simply trying to force Huntsman’s hand by making him choose right now what he is going to do. To use a popular Bush phrase, this feels like they are trying to “smoke” Huntsman out so they know who their opponents are.
I, like many others, have a hard time seeing Huntsman win a primary right now. He has come out for cap-and-trade, civil unions, and praised amnesty.
Curly
11-dimensional chess version:
Huntsman gets creamed in the primaries but still gets lots of attention from Bobo, Broder, et al. Biden withdraws and Obama names Huntsman as “unity VP” candidate at convention. Village goes nuts.
FlipYrWhig
@Elizabelle:
That’s what I thought. Something like Huntsman/Bayh. The ticket of bland white bipartisan normality, splitting the difference between Obama [D] and Crazypants McGee [R]. The Beltway media would eat. it. up.
ETA: @Curly: Not bad…
Peter J
@JWL:
And one of the first things voters will hear about him – that he worked for Team Obama.
2016, with a saner GOP, that his time. 2012 isn’t.
Gus
@KG: Yes. Huntsman probably could win in the general, but he won’t get out of the primaries. Remember how much bitching we heard after McCain got his ass handed to him? He lost because he wasn’t a true conservative in their view.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@lamh32:
Yes, that is how I see the cards being dealt.
Please define ‘a disaster’.
Personally I don’t think any GOP POTUS/VPOTUS ticket can do worse than 45% of the general election vote. I derive this figure from thinking that Obama in 2008 was at or near the ceiling for Dems under any circumstances; the setup in 2008 after eight years of misrule under W was optimal, the Obama campaign was hitting on all cynlinders, the McCain campaign was a shipwreck, and the 2008 financial crash hit at the perfect time. QED the GOP could nominate a dead parrot and get 45% in today’s America, on the strength of beautiful plumage alone.
geg6
Methinks Dave Weigel has it right here:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel/archive/2011/01/31/huntsman-2012-why.aspx
Bill Daley has just shown Ambassador Huntsman exactly WHY he does not want to run against President Obama.
IM
@Zifnab25:
That would be my point. isn’t it much to late for him? Plain and Romney are still known from lats time around, but a unknown needs much more time to build his name recognition.
Calouste
@Violet:
60 is probably the limit. Although Europe is different in some ways, hardly anyone who is over 60 at their initial election gets elected there as PM or President. For Britain for example the last time was Atlee in 1945. Jacques Chirac was over 60 when he was elected president of France, but he was already Prime Minister in his early 40s.
geg6
@IM:
Old fatass, Jim-Crow-wasn’t-all-that-bad, Southern cartoon Haley Barbour is also out today telling donors to not make any moves until he decides whether he wants to run:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703833204576114070366139758.html
IM
@geg6:
Ah, but voters know him from Dukes of Hazzard.
My point is that at least Romney and Palin can afford to wait longer. But not Huntsman.
Kelsey
I don’t think the tea party will be the only people voting in the primaries this time around, and perhaps Huntsman is betting on this as well. Imagine you have Palin, Romney, Huckabee, etc. all running for the tea party vote and then Huntsman comes in and says to independents and moderate republicans, “vote for me I’m not crazy and can win a general election.”
les
Larison makes an interesting point–if Huntsman runs, it will demonstrate the grand total of zero foreign policy knowledge/experience held by the entire remaining slate of the contestants. Not that the teahadists give a shit about knowledge or competence, but…
Paris
I predict the Quitter will hire Tanya Harding to get Jeff Gillooly to take out Huntsman.
KG
The other thing that is being overlooked is that smart politicians don’t run against incumbents unless the incumbent looks vulnerable. Despite what the Wingularity believes, Obama is not really that vulnerable at this point. Smart politicians go after open seats. So, my guess is that short of Obama pulling an LBJ (“I will not seek the nomination, if nominated I will not run…”), there are going to be a bunch of B and C list candidates on the GOP side. Even with the GOP’s penchant for taking the next in line, I just doubt that anyone who might be considered a top tier candidate would believe it is worth it.
dww44
@Cathie from Canada:
Exactly, this little back and forth about who stands the best chance of getting the Republican nomination next year or 4 years after that or 8 years after that ignores the very real elephant(the party itself) in the room.
This country is sunk if the Republicans reclaim control of the country and if that happens, Cathie from Canada, I will move and become your neighbor. I am surrounded by the Republican crazy and I am about to lose it and start bouncing off the walls.
matoko_chan
Cole just TOLD US that Romney CANNOT WIN BECAUSE HE IS A MORMON.
Huntsman IS A MORMON.
Logic fail?
pattonbt
If this is true….
This is a set up run for 2016. As someone above noted the R nomination is (usually) a coronation of the runner up or long serving candidate from previous years. So Huntsman gets his name in 2012, seen as sane, gets big love from the village and “moderate” republicans, loses primary (but does not embarrass himself), whack candidate gets nominated (probably), candidate gets whacked by Obama (hopefully), loss (in R circles) touted by “moderate” R’s as “told you so about nominating crazy”, 2016 gets set up for “sane”/”middle” candidate, Huntsman cake-walks.
Of course, never say never.
I think Huntsman will get tons of “moderate”/village love (which does smack a bit of “thank god he’s white and bland” to me – disgusting) and could make it through. Because if there is one things R’s want more than anything else and that is for an R (they don’t care who) to be in charge. Power, not how it is applied, is all that matters. And they will forgive all RINO sins to back their candidate. And the problem for D’s with a Huntsman run is that “moderate” R’s will flock back to the R side faster than shit through a goose. The village will fall over backwards with their praise and desire for Huntsman. He’s Thune with actual experience and charisma.
Splitting Image
Latest news is that Huntsman has officially tendered his resignation, so I guess we’ll find out what he’s thinking soon enough.
From what I know about him, I agree with John’s OP: I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the next president, or at least the next Republican president, but I have no clue how he can possibly manage it in 2012.
I’m also curious to see if he gets “co-opted by the crazy”, as John puts it. I think if he backtracks on gay rights and immigration, then he quickly becomes Mitt Romney with less name recognition. No path to victory there. On the other hand, if he doubles down on his record, how does he get past the ‘baggers?
I think it is also possible, as a few people have said, that he might be thinking of the Utah Senate race. On the other hand, if he’s got presidential ambitions, then by the time the next race comes around, he’ll have quit the governorship to take the ambassador position, quit the ambassadorship to run for Senator, and quit the Senate to run for president. That might be a tad too obviously ambitious for people to overlook.
I guess we’ll see pretty soon.
Midnight Marauder
Anyone who thinks Sarah Palin would pick Jon Hunstman to serve as her VP in the extremely unlikely event she ascended to the office of President of The United States…
is out of their fucking mind.
Midnight Marauder
@Curly:
These theories really need to go away:
From January 27 of this year…
A year ago, you say?
Seriously. Just stop. It’s going to be Obama/Biden again in 2012. Just put your fucking crystal balls away already.
matoko_chan
HES A MORMON.
are you deaf?
Curly
@Midnight Marauder:
Um… I thought the “11 dimensional chess” heading clued people in to the fact that it was a joke.
Malron
Behold! The successor and heir apparent to the title of “Great White Hope!”
Just sayin.”