What is a good place to read about what is going in Egypt? I’d like something without an emphasis on what this means for the United States. I find it more sad than comical that the same people who were angry about the left’s “politicization” of the Tucson shootings are more than happy to use mass upheaval in other countries as a pretext to bash Obama’s foreign policy.
I’d like something that talks in some detail with some context, rather than something that just links to/excerpts from news reports.
Update. Nisralnasr is very interesting.
Tom Hilton
All I know is that the King of England waits in exile in the crack fields of Bolivia.
Sir Nose'D
I would recommend Juan Cole. Much better than John Cole on Egypt and other middle eastern matters. Sorry, John.
http://www.juancole.com/
Villago Delenda Est
It’s not comical.
It’s typical.
These are the people Orwell was warning us about. They think Nineteen Eighty-Four is a “how to” book.
soonergrunt
You should try Al Jazeera’s english website and their english channel if you can get it.
trollhattan
MoreMost importantly, what color(s) do you have to change the BJ banner to?On the Egypt thang, I don’t know. Al Jazeera?
joe from Lowell
How can anyone possibly use these uprisings to bash Obama’s foreign policy?
After a complete absence of popular uprisings against tyrannical governments during the Bush years – with the exception of Pakistan, during which the administration took the side of Musharriff – two years into Obama’s term, we’re seeing them break out across the Greater Middle East.
Scott P.
Informed Comment: http://www.juancole.com
Al Jazeera: http://english.aljazeera.net/
NisralNasr: http://nisralnasr.blogspot.com/
A Writer At Balloon-Juice
Thanks.
Scott P.
Oh, funny story. A right-wing friend of mine recommended “John Cole’s blog” a few years ago. I thought he said Juan Cole, looked him up, and found him to be good. I was surprised my friend would have recommended it.
Later I found John Cole’s blog, after his transformation. So everything worked out.
Dexter
Guardian is probably a good place. Here is their liveblog.
Maude
@joe from Lowell:
Go over to Atrios. There are some Obama bashers there.
The problem is, they don’t understand foreign policy.
Persia
When the news permits, Al-Jazeera has had some pretty interesting analysis– much better than I expect from TV news. Not precisely what you’re looking for but I figured I’d put it in the thread.
Seconding Juan Cole too. Daniel Larison is usually worth reading on international news.
morzer
@Sir Nose’D:
And here was me thinking that Juan Cole is the Muslim-Mexican anchor-baby version of John Cole.
I would recommend Robert Fisk of the Independent as well, not just for Egypt, but for Middle Eastern stuff in general.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/
matoko_chan
@A Writer At Balloon-Juice: mark lynch.
He that was Abu Aardvark.
ditto al-jazeerha english, and juan cole.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
Al Jazeera’s English website and BBC’s online news website.
4tehlulz
inb4 “obama lost egypt”
Kiril
Guardian live update Egypt blog:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-live-updates
Mark Lynch:
http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/
morzer
@4tehlulz:
Egypt is Obama’s
VietnamWaterloo.. er Egypt.matoko_chan
@4tehlulz: lawl……maybe this IS All Obamas Fault.
Obama’s Arab Spring?
Morbo
Al Jazeera is going to need a server upgrade soon.
The Dangerman
I’m still waiting for the claims that any democratization in Tunisia/Egypt/Yemen/Chooseacountry is because Dubya invaded Iraq; there is no connection, but that won’t stop the claims.
matoko_chan
heh.
im enjoying this way too much.
i lurve validation.
srv
Someone appears to have forgotten the Ukraine and Georgia.
Obama is on track to do as much damage or more to the Empire as GW did. The end result is going to be more radicalization and by the 2012, it will be “who lost Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt ….”
But that seems to be his luck in life, Presider in Chief over the denouement of American FP and Economy.
We needed a Lincoln or FDR and got a community organizer.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Maude:
Obama bashers who don’t understand shit?
Sure you weren’t at FDL?
les
@The Dangerman:
The estimable VD Hanson is already there (have there ever been more appropriate initials?). Via Edroso.
Poopyman
@Scott P.: Yeah, I’m following al Jazeera and The Guardian, and The Guardian just keeps sourcing al Jazeera.
Mike in NC
My wife and some of her friends visited Egypt several years ago and were shown around by her cousin, who was then Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Cairo. He has since retired from the State Department and lives in Beirut. I’ll ask her to email him this weekend for his thoughts.
Poopyman
@Morbo:
Yeah, watching that this AM I got the distinct impression that there was some scrambling going on behind the scenes involving duct tape and baling wire.
FlipYrWhig
Obama responsible? Bush responsible? Pshaw. This is just the delayed repercussions of the Battle of the Nile.
Jack Bauer
Who’s going to do our torturing for us now?
Wondering if all my comments are disappearing into the filter…
El Cid
Al Jazeera is noting that there are unconfirmed reports of clashes between police and military. If this is happening and is happening on a significant enough scale, the government is very likely to fall.
Like others I recommend watching Al Jazeera’s live English video coverage.
Jane2
If you can’t get Al Jazeera, the live Guardian (UK) feed is excellent.
El Cid
@joe from Lowell:
Why not? Does any of the modern conservative movement need any rational basis? Or even have to use things actually happening or real facts?
[Here you go.
soonergrunt
@El Cid: I’ve read elsewhere (think it was MSNBC but could be wrong) that the military in Egypt is respected there because they’ve never attacked the civilian population of the country in 50+ years. I don’t know about the veracity of such claims though.
If the military has gone over to the protesters’ side, I don’t know what that means other than the government is on borrowed time and not a lot of that, either.
What it means six months or a couple of years down the road? I don’t know.
Persia
@Poopyman: It’s holding up, though. I’ve had it on since early this morning with no significant interruption.
GregB
This is in effect the historical equivalent with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc vis a vis US power.
Egypt has been the bulwark of our Arab Middle East policy.
This is what a loss of power looks like. The old order is dying. This is the EXACT opposite of what the neo-cons had hoped for.
They wanted this kind of instability in Iran and Syria. Not Egypt or Saudi Arabia.
What a new Egypt will look like is not known, but Mubarak now has to decide whether he’ll be like Gorbachev and let go of power or if he’ll be like Ceaucescu and hold on till it is too late for him to leave and he get’s the rough treatment. Think Mussolini, Milosevic, Ceaucescu.
I would recommend the Ben Ali method and get out of dodge.
tractor
The Daily Dish has a good variety of content up.
Mike G
@joe from Lowell:
How can anyone possibly use these uprisings to bash Obama’s foreign policy?
Because when you’re feeble-minded and hopelessly parochial and ignorant about the rest of the world, every event on the planet MUST center around your obsessions regarding US domestic politics.
The other side of this King Stupid is that the US has omnipotent power to control events, so if Egypt falls, it must be because Obama chose not to intervene when he could have stopped it.
There could be factional infighting in the government of Mongolia and they would somehow tie it to the US, because they understand nothing else. For teatards, other countries barely exist except as doormats for the US military.
I can’t wait for Sarah Palin to chime in with her perspective based on extensive knowledge of Middle Eastern history. And when she does, she’ll get 1000 times more attention than DFH Juan Cole. Fuck the plastic corporate media.
Svensker
@srv:
And what would you have him do? I mean, I would have loved it if he cut off all aid to Israel and support for the regimes in Egypt, Jordan, etc. And then pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan. But that certainly would have spurred on uprisings in Egypt, etc.
What did you want him to do? Invade Saudi? Seriously, if you’re going to do some lame ass criticism, let’s at least hear what you wanted Obama to have done that would have changed what’s happening now.
matoko_chan
@soonergrunt: when the military rolled in to impose curfew, the crowds chanted allahu akbar for what its worth.
if the military sides with the protestors its over for Mubarak…..and for Israel’s occupation of Palestine, and the blockade…the MB will be will running convoys over the border..
:)
fasteddie9318
Professor Cole (Juan, that is) is fantastic but it’s not a news source in the sense of being constantly updated. I’d go with al-Jazeera or BBC for a straight news feed. CNN-I is probably decent too, but not the domestic flavor CNN with its “ZOMG TEH BROWN PEOPLE ARE ALL VIOLENT SAVE US JEEBUS” bullshit.
Alex S.
@FlipYrWhig:
I knew that when Ramesses went to war with the Hittites it would lead to no good.
Well, the domino theory might have some truth to it. After all, the islamic concept of the “Umma”, the community of all muslims, is stronger than the concept of the nation state. All the countries from Morocco to Iraq speak Arab, have an Arab population and belong to Sunni Islam. What happens in one country can quickly spread to other countries.
But Bush and the Neocons falsely believed that if they actively change regimes in one country, this change would spread to other countries – without their doing. But of course, the invasion of Iraq was perceived as a hostile act, not as an uprising of Iraqis against their dictator. The domino theory might only work if you focus on enabling change, not enacting change.
matoko_chan
@Svensker: Lynch thinks Obama caused what is happening now.
Obama’s Arab Spring?
JAHILL10
@Mike G: This. Having traveled to Egypt many times over the past 10 years, I can tell you that the Egyptians have their own political and domestic concerns that have absolutely nothing to do with U.S. foreign policy. Mubarak is a dictator who has been manipulating the “elections” in his country so that he and his party always win (Surprise). And word was he has been grooming his son Gamal to take his place. People are sick of it. There has been a vastly widening gap between the haves and the have nots in that country and the young people simply believe that they have nothing to lose by putting their lives on the line to try to get him out and see a little equity restored to the system.
I can’t tell you where this is headed, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be in a bad direction.
Definitely the Al Jazeera live feed is the best source for news now. I saw some hairpiece talking on MSNBC who was breathtakingly ignorant.
matoko_chan
@Alex S.: the domino or oilspot theory was doomed from the start.
when muslims are empowered to vote democratically, they vote for more islam, not less, and never for judeoxian/westernstyle democracy.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
This is not what you’re looking for DougJ/A Writer, but I want to exploit this thread to urge the only action an American can take at this point:
Rep Keith Ellison is calling on people to send letters to the White House urging pressure on the Egyptian government. I called his office to ask for a definition of “letter” (since clearly he didn’t mean USPS!), and the staffer says emails, emails, emails. To which I could only say: Ok.
So, what you do is you go to the White House contact page http://bit.ly/e50fnX write your email, and then, if you’re on Twitter, please tweet about it with the hashtags #letterstothewhitehouse #Egypt and #Jan25, and cc @KeithEllison
Here’s the text of my letter – YMMV
Dear President Obama,
I write today to express my support for the Egyptian people. As an American-Israeli with an academic and professional background in the Middle East, I have watched Egypt closely for years, and I want to urge you to act in support of civil society and democratic institutions. Please use whatever resources are at your disposal to aid the Egyptian people as they seek to enjoy the kinds of rights & freedoms that we enjoy every day in the US. Sincerely, Emily L. Hauser
PeakVT
Some recent and graphic photos.
JGabriel
JAHILL10:
Honestly, that part sounds depressingly familiar.
.
matoko_chan
@JAHILL10: i can tell you it will be bad for Israel and their attempt to starve the Palis into submission or extinction. the MB will run convoys over the border.
Its bad for the US. the MB fuckin hates America.
and it is, of course, A Very Bad Thing for the Mubarak dynasty.
Ed Marshall
If Egypt can go down, any of them can. The experts more or less came down against a repeat of Tunisia coming down the pike, and Egypt in particular was seen as an unlikely candidate. Mubarak’s security apparatus and relationship with the military was seen as making him bulletproof. If you are sick of the government in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, etc.. this is a green flag.
Bob Loblaw
@joe from Lowell:
That’s a pretty big exception, don’t you think? Pakistan is the sixth biggest country on the planet. And nuclear armed. You’re talking about them like they’re Tajikistan…
Yeah, how could anybody question American mendacity and malice in regards to an autocratic, co-conspirator torture state that we give billions of dollars in aid to annually to keep the Suez clear and the Gazans in the ghetto?! It’s unpossible.
Honestly, it’s fascinating that people are so interested in attaching causality to our Presidential elections in the first place. Wait, did I say fascinating? I meant tedious.
Maybe it had more to do with that whole global recession thing? Just maybe? And rising commodity costs coupled with decades worth of unequal economic growth? Nah, you’re right, it was probably all about a US President saying pretty lies about democracy…
El Cid
An interesting source of perspective is the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights.
JGabriel
@matoko_chan: You’re assuming the Muslim Brotherhood will take control in Egypt. That may happen, but it’s pretty far from a foregone conclusion. Do you have any evidence that the military or police will support a Muslim Brotherhood government?
.
JAHILL10
@Ed Marshall: The Egyptian military has never fired on its citizens and is seen, as an institution, as supporting the 1952 revolution which got rid of the British puppet ruler. Word was that the protesters were calling for the military to come to their aid. Where they have gone in (Alexandria, Suez, and Cairo) they have been greeted as friends by the protesters. Some unconfirmed reports that the military and the Mubarak security forces are actually fighting each other now.
Amir_Khalid
I second the thoughts about not trying to see this through the self-centered lens of “What does this mean for the US?” Best thing for the USA is not to intervene to any great extent or say very much, just to let it play out and deal with the new circumstances once the smoke clears. The US can’t win an argument in someone else’s house; for one thing, there’s no prize to be won. This is Egypt’s house, let them settle their own affairs.
Even declaring a preference for any particular outcome can have blowback. If Hillary were to say “We like Faction X” (or even hint at it) Faction X’s opponents will seize upon that and say “Aha! Faction X is in cahoots with the Americans!” and there goes Faction X’s street cred.
Alex S.
@matoko_chan:
Well, the domino theory has been resurrected a few times by now. I see it being used in the context of the current events. It has been used by the neocons, but it did originally come from the Cold War and Vietnam. Ironically, it justified the use of force to prevent a regime change back then, and when the Neocons resurrected it, it was an intellectual justification of the use of force to cause a regime change. But right now, the use of force is not being considered, so the word domino theory in the current context only means “events spreading from one country to another”.
Peter
This is a pretty interesting piece on ElBaradei. The author’s blog is here.
El Cid
@Ed Marshall: It might be worth recalling that Osama bin Laden’s highest goal was to topple the Saudi monarchy — the rest was tactics.
fasteddie9318
@JGabriel: “Evidence” and matoko_chan don’t usually operate in the same orbit.
Michael
http://www.cbc.ca/
Morbo
@matoko_chan: Yeah, right, only the third largest democracy in the world…
JAHILL10
@JGabriel: Yeah, doesn’t it?
Jack Bauer
@El Cid:
If the Saudi regime falls it would be a true change in the world order.
Green energy might suddenly gain bi-partisan support.
matoko_chan
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther: shukran jazeelayykan.
that is very good.
Pococurante
I see only upside to a democratic Egypt.
The only downside is when the democracy is simply used to replace one oppressive regime with one that is more extreme. Like Gaza.
Not to focus so much on Israel, but much of the Arab hatred is whipped up by the dictators to divert attention away from internal issues. War by proxy is a huge tool in their arsenal. And the Arab Palestinians have always been the ones who most suffered by the proxy wars. It’s not like any of the Arab countries have ever sincerely helped them.
Once more Arab citizens crawl up the Malthusian scale a lot of those issues go away. We may see a repeat or three of 1967 but it would be Syria and Lebanon, easily dealt with. But I doubt we’d see that.
matoko_chan
@Alex S.: it didnt work in Vietnam did it?
fasteddie9318
To be fair, Islam as practiced in Indonesia doesn’t necessarily resemble the Arab variety that closely.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
@PeakVT: Just saw the one of the protester shot in the head by the police. I’m shaking over here.
srv
@Svensker:
I think you underestimate my respect for, as I called it, the “Empire.”
I fully support the policies of FP FAIL. Our esteemed leaders and Notional Security Staff are incapable of any change, that’s been clearly apparent for decades to anyone with a clue.
It’s unfortunate that we had/have to kill a lot of people and waste a lot of wealth relearning the path of empires, but this is the only path by which people apparently learn.
As for what Obama should do, maybe it’s just me, but if you know you’re going to get ratfucked by Wall St, the media and FP wonks regardless, maybe you should try something different. I see folks are already pointing out Obama started his “Apology Tour” in Egypt.
Courageous, being such a judicious student of the status quo and getting beaten for it.
Jay C
@les:
Yeah, well VDH’s comments – pompous gasbag nonsense as it usually is – stuck me more as a fairly flailing/failing attempt to make lemonade out of some serious foreign-policy lemons: and yet still having it come more like piss…
It’s just more neocon after-the-fact “justification” for the invasion of Iraq, and Dubya’s big hoo-hah “democratization” efforts; spiced up, as always by gratuitous jabs at the Obama Admin. Why anyone still pays attention to these people is beyond me; but I suppose it’s something we have to put with in the name of “a free press”…
matoko_chan
@JGabriel: lets wait and see shall we?
i predict they will be the majority party.
i think the US will try to broker Mubarak stepping down, and el Baradei as the figurehead Siniora puppet to replace him.
the first elections will have a MB sweep, like Hamas swept the Gaza elections.
and Hillary could SAY she supports the MB, but no one would believe her.
The MB and the US have history.
The MB is the father of al-Qaeda.
matoko_chan
@Ed Marshall: another Arab Spring? with social media as the POI?
Ed Marshall
@JAHILL10:
The military seems to be behaving differently in different areas. There are reports that they are fighting with the protesters in Suez and fighting with the police in Cairo. This probably reflects a lack of consensus within the military over what to do.
However, they don’t seem to be willing to massacre people on mass, and that means there is almost certainly some sort of conversation in the military that is going to end with them putting Mubarak on a plane and being sent somewhere.
auntieeminaz
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther: Will do but with far fewer credentials than you. I would be very interested to hear your assessment of El Baradei. I read that he is a secular moderate. Is that true?
Alex S.
@matoko_chan:
Back then, it simply didn’t turn out to be true… how many countries did turn communist after 1975? But today, some kind of domino effect can be observed, probably because of the cultural similarities between the arab countries.
JAHILL10
@matoko_chan: This is not a MB movement. The protesters have been very careful about not carrying the MB or any other political party’s water or signs in this. It is about the Egyptian people. I think IF Mubarak is outed, the MB will play a part in any new government that is formed. I don’t think that we will be looking at a Muslim theocracy a la Iran. Too many other factors, including the Egyptian economy’s complete depedancy on Western tourism, sort of eliminates that as a possibility.
Paul in KY
@matoko_chan: Now you know all those people are protesting (and periodically stopping their protests to pray) for a secular Democratic regime, one basically no different from Sweden or Denmark.
Isn’t that your theses? (ducks head & runs)!
matoko_chan
@Ed Marshall: yes. i agree.
Mubarak is toast. i think the US will try to ease in an interim government headed by el Baradei.
but this is still taps for Israel. the MB will sweep the first election and run convoys in to break the blockade.
that border just got porous.
Parallel 5ths (Jewish Steel)
@A Writer At Balloon-Juice:
The Mekons? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCQ6DLwV9CI
You really are going through my record collection, WABJ.
JAHILL10
@Ed Marshall: Well the military heads were openly opposed to Mubarak’s plan to put his son on the “throne” of Egypt, so if this thing can be resolved in the protesters’ favor the military will likely be the broker of that deal.
The only question is, will they use that position to put the next strong man in the president’s chair. Mubarak basically got his start in the Egyptian army after Sadat’s assassination. Hopefully not, but we may just swap one strong man for another…
matoko_chan
@Paul in KY: sweden is a monarchy. i dunno about denmark.
jurassicpork
My alter ago Mike Flannigan weighs in on what’s going in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East and what lessons those events can impart to us here in the states.
matoko_chan
@JAHILL10:
i thought you knew…. the MB is banned. carrying an MB sign is tantamount to jail. the MB deliberately distanced themselves from the protest to protect the protestors.
im confident they will have majority support. they have been able to successly frame themselves as the party of islamic religious freedom, citizen rights, and social justice as the counterforce to Mubaraks westernized oppression.
they are mad popular.
the banning probably helped.
Amir_Khalid
From the Beeb’s liveblog:
They know perfectly well who Mubarak’s main sponsor has been all this while.
Just to reinforce that there’s not much for any foreign power, especially the US, to say or do about the situation i Egypt except make concerned noises and try not to
sabotagewreck any positive developments.Paul in KY
@matoko_chan: Complete figurehead in Sweden, as democratic as England.
I was hoping for more of a reaction (a ‘cudlip’ at least).
Appreciate your point of view on these protests. I would assume in a real, free election the MB would do quite well.
srv
@JAHILL10: Mubarak was an Air Force commander who Sadat made VP.
matoko_chan
@Amir_Khalid:
O Immortal.
I expect the US is working like mad to get an interim government featuring el Baradei brokered through the military RIGHT NAOW.
matoko_chan
@Amir_Khalid: Mubarak is gone.
the alternatives are either the MB or a military junta.
so they better be working damned hard on it.
Morbo
@matoko_chan: Denmark appears to be slightly more monarchic than Sweden. Sweden’s prime minister and cabinet appoint their Supreme Court judges; whereas Denmark’s monarch appoints theirs.
srv
@matoko_chan: Know the relationship between the French PM and el Baradei? I presume the French have business/military ties as deep as ours. We could pretend to stay above it all. I just don’t see Hillary running about Cairo.
Paul in KY
@Morbo: I thought Denmark was just like Sweden (basic politcswise).
I did not know that. So, Sweden is definitely more Democratic than Denmark.
Thanks for the info.
Mr. Poppinfresh
@matoko_chan: i thought you knew…. the MB is banned. carrying an MB sign is tantamount to jail.
As opposed to violating a militarily-imposed curfew and burning down the state party headquarters, which is super legal?
Don’t be stupid- the MB is one of many factions in Egypt, and is not by any means universally popular. It has no weapons, no strong civil-society structure (unlike Hezbollah on both counts), and would have to convince the military to support it. Doing so would likely lead to war with Israel, something I doubt the Egyptian military is anxious to stampede towards.
Ed Marshall
@matoko_chan:
The Muslim Brotherhood is anathema to the educated sector (which is huge in Cairo, even if the people with advanced degrees drive cabs for lack of job opportunities). It’s also not popular with the Copts, obviously.
They are a strong political movement, but they aren’t this juggernaut that someone has misinformed you into believing they are (this was a talking point of the Mubarak regime). I think any possible, upcoming, democratic government is going to spell an end to the Egyptian collaboration on Gaza with the Israelis. Also any possible government is *not* going to be able to disentangle itself from the U.S. without a foreign sponsor who would take our place on military aid. Even if they had one, it would require completely retraining their military, it would take years to phase us out.
Amir_Khalid
@Morbo: Does the King of Denmark appoint Supreme Court judges off his own bat, or on the advice of the PM/Cabinet? In constitutional monarchies (like all those in Europe, as well as here in Malaysia) the latter is the standard practice for “Royal” appointments.
wengler
So nice to have people here making concerned chirps on how best to co-opt the next government of Egypt. It’s an American tradition to destroy democratic movements and replace them with corrupt dictators.
The market needs the certainty of the iron fist!
srv
Israel tells the Egyptian Military they better prevail.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, MB in Egypt, and next up Jordan. I don’t think we’re going to have many bases left.
srv
@wengler: White Man’s Burden.
PeakVT
@srv: Most US bases in the ME are in the Persian Gulf.
Poopyman
Stupid, but sadly predictable:
bjacques
For all that Alexandria looks like the album cover of Fresh Fruit For Rotting Vegetables, it’s all a sideshow. What really matters is who gets control of the Stargate.
Seriously, I hope the people come out OK.
matoko_chan
@Ed Marshall: disagree. the MB is just as popular with the proletariat as Hamas was with the palestinians before their election sweep.
there are only 3 outcomes– we can agree mubarak is toast– the military wont do tiennammen.
1. el baradei is the titular head of an interim government
2. military junta
3. Muslim Brotherhood
in any of those scenarios the border is instantly porous. the blockade is over. and the sovs and the sauds would be equally delighted to buy new shit for the egyptians….IFF the US had the nads to try to say no, which i SERIOUSLY doubt.
nope, sry, our days of telling small brown people what to do IS OVAH.
welcome to the 21st century.
fasteddie9318
@Poopyman:
Of course it’s not. The right time for democratization in the Arab world is about half past Ragnarok, as far as Likud is concerned.
Poopyman
Also, too:
Note that I’ve been including links to the sources so you can differentiate between the Guardian timestamp (EST + 5 hr) and the al Jazeeera timestamp (EST + 7 hr).
Svensker
@srv:
They wanted “democracy” in the ME — they’re getting it.
GR
Greatest side one, track one in rock history. Yes, I said it, and yes, I’m serious.
jayjaybear
@Poopyman: Spectacularly stupid…do all Israeli government functionaries receive a complimentary tin ear on their appointment?
Calouste
@jayjaybear:
It’s the Henry Kissinger school of foreign relations. You can’t have people in foreign countries decide something democratically that is against your interests.
matoko_chan
@srv: i agree…i think the western powers are putting their shoulders to an interim gov featuring el Baradei.
but whatever happens Israel is in some deep, deeep shit.
i think that border becomes porous, whoever takes charge.
Israel is rattling sabers is all.
bluff.
Calouste
Nice picture in the Guardian of protesters cheering on top of an armored car. That gives hope that this won’t be a massacre.
fasteddie9318
The BBC’s breaking news feed says that they’re trying to confirm reports that protesters have formed a human shield outside the museum to protect it from fire and looting.
Amir_Khalid
I don’t get the sense that there’s any one faction in charge of this uprising. So it’s anybody’s guess who will come out on top, and foreign players like the US will be tempted to affect the situation to their strategeric advantage. even if only to remind themselves that being a superpower means telling brown people what to do. even though American support for Mubarak’s regime in the past 30 years has done Egypt plenty of damage already. This kind of intervention almost never turns out as planned, and just ends up fucking things up royally for the locals.
And as I’ve said upthread, Western power support for any particular local player might give his rivals grounds to attack his credibility at precisely the wrong time.
PeakVT
WH press conference just popped up on the BBC unrest page. Gibbs is struggling.
fasteddie9318
Gibbs giving a briefing now; very noncommittal on outcomes but firm that reforms must happen.
Amir_Khalid
Per the BBC, Obama is saying (through Gibbs) that Egyptians need to resolve this themselves. I hope he means it.
matoko_chan
@Amir_Khalid: Lynch thinks this is another Arab Spring.
the Tunisian disease will spread via social media like sat tv spread it in 2005.
is this a trend?
this is good news for gaza i think. the blockade will fall, no matter who prevails.
egyptians hate israel.
srv
@matoko_chan: Hostile Turkey, Lebanon, Gaza, Egypt, maybe Syria, maybe Jordan…
This is peak crazy for Likud. This is the perfect opportunity for them to marginalize their own opposition, and they will double down.
They’re going to feel a need to slap some small country up against the wall and make an example of them.
matoko_chan
wow sully’s coverage is just awful
larison is a WEC retard too.
im pretty sure mubarak is toast.
oh noes!
islamists in the streets!
matoko_chan
@srv: yup. do you think America’s Crazy Ex-GF might do something stupid……like launch on Iran?
try to jump-start WWIII?
i just dont think Obama is that into her anymore.
jayjaybear
@Calouste: Well, yeah…but they’re not supposed to come right out and SAY it like that!
Scott P.
The sovs? Have I gone through a time warp without realizing it?
Amir_Khalid
@matoko_chan: Or it could be like the Wind of Change that blew through eastern Europe in 1989. (Yes, I’m referring to a song by the Scorpions.) History doesn’t quite repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. Mind you, that would take more good luck than the Middle East has had in centuries.
PeakVT
Well, if you think the US should stay as neutral as possible, then Gibbs is doing okay once the words come out.
Calouste
@jayjaybear:
I think Kissinger said it openly when Chile elected Allende. Can’t find the exact quote though.
srv
If Mubarak really falls, something is going to come along to spark more chaos. A settler riot on the WB with video, mass casualties in Gaza, a strike against Hezbollah’s leaders in Lebanon, Iran testing a nuke.
I didn’t know that the IDF has a new leader, and he appears to be the right (worst) guy for the times.
Poopyman
From The Guardian coverage:
(snort!)
Persia
@Poopyman: That’s hilarious. I can understand not wanting to say anything at all, but…what the Guardian said. Love them.
Ed Marshall
@Scott P.:
It’s all hallucination. I’ve given up.
Calouste
I have the impression that the White House scheduled the press conference because they were promised some kind of event or announcement in Egypt, but in the end they were left empty handed and looking rather silly
Ash Can
What’s Gibbs supposed to say? One of the most stable pillars of long-term US Mideast policy is in the process of acute-onset crumbling. I don’t expect the administration to be saying anything decisive, because nothing’s been decided. So the guy gets up there and says, “The shit has hit the fan, and we’re waiting to see what gets splattered before we send the janitors in.” At least he’s letting everybody know that the admin isn’t ignoring the situation.
If this were happening under W’s admin, he’d be clicking his heels with glee and sending the naval destroyers and bombers in to help his buddy Hosni. Would that be better?
ETA @Calouste: Good point.
Maude
@Amir_Khalid:
Obama is cautious and he doesn’t lie.
Poopyman
@Calouste: I would guess the event would have been a Mubarak speech. But if that’s the case, why wouldn’t they just postpone?
Sort of a rhetorical question, because the impression I get from both Guardian and al Jazeera feeds is that everyone has been looking to Obama for something.
Ash Can
@Calouste: I’m very much liking that tidbit in the Guardian’s live feed about civilians milling around army tanks “unhindered.” Here’s hoping it stays that way.
fasteddie9318
@Poopyman:
Sure they have, so they can then slam him for whatever that “something” is. There is literally no response that this administration can offer to this situation that won’t get them blasted by somebody for something. Better to do the right thing and stay the fuck out of it, and get blasted for that, then to put on their codpiece and flight suit and go fuck things up, and get blasted for that anyway.
Poopyman
More from The Guardian:
burnspbesq
This is all you need to know.
http://wordsmoker.com/2011/01/28/egyptian-otter-stands-firm/
Amir_Khalid
@Ash Can:
But just monitoring a situation that’s still shaking itself out makes the US look indecisive and wussy. Plus if you write that up, your editor will tell you your story’s not dramatic enough. We’re in this business to sell newspapers, dontcha know?
So you see all the reporter-johhnies pestering Gibbs for a dramatic quote, however silly it may be, that they can plunk into an intro.
Poopyman
@fasteddie9318: What Atrios said.
Calouste
@Poopyman:
Postponing for later today wouldn’t have been useful. It was 10PM in Egypt when the presser started, so unlikely that there would be an announcement between then and the next morning (midnightish DC time). They could have cancelled the whole thing, but that would also have looked weird. I don’t doubt there is a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes, not in the least trying to find a country that is willing to accept Moubarak and his family. Ben Ali managed to escape to Saudi Arabia, as did Idi Amin before him, but the Saudis might not want to take the risk with Moubarak.
Maude
@Amir_Khalid:
Yep. Drama of the day. Hoping to make Gibbs make a mistake so that the WH reporters can point their grubby little fingers at Obama.
The Republicans seem to be quiet on this.
Also, there US citizens in Egypt. They must be glad Obama isn’t making a GW Bush ‘Bring it on’ statement.
Calouste
@Calouste:
Well, shows you what I know. The BBC reports:
Comrade Mary
I am riveted to the Al-Jazeera stream. I have to go out, but I can’t.
El Cid
@Amir_Khalid: Almost all but the tiniest slice of US aid to Egypt goes to military aid. It’s not “aid” in the sense that Egyptians would recognize it.
Poopyman
@Calouste: The Guardian has a bit more:
Joseph Nobles
@fasteddie9318:
Human shield around the Egyptian museum FTW.
Poopyman
@Poopyman: This is how realignments happen.
Well, somebody had to say it.
Poopyman
Al Jazeera:
It could have been much worse.
Ash Can
@Poopyman: It really does sound like neither the police force nor the military was terribly gung-ho about putting down the revolt. And if that’s the case, then it’s bye-bye Mubarak.
elf
I have had Al Jazeera live streaming all day…(whoever said the revolution would not be televised). Much better information than anything on corporate usa tv.
Al Jazeera had been reporting that Mubarek was to appear on Egyptian tv to make an announcement..he never showed. So this could have been in tandem with Gibbs appearance and maybe they were left holding the bag on it.
Now they are stating Speaker of Egyptian parliament is to make an important announcement. This in the last half hour or so.
They also report all the bigshots (Egyptian business) have left the country.
They did report a human shield had formed around the museum which is adjacent to the political headquarters that is in total flames. For some reason I find that so inspiring. The people themselves wish to protect their heritage.
Amir_Khalid
@Poopyman: BBC is quoting different numbers from Reuter: 5 dead in Cairo, 13 dead in Suez. Over 1,000 wounded so far.
El Cid
Al Jazeera claiming that Egyptian businessmen seem to be leaving the country. I didn’t see any numbers. I’m assuming it would need to be enough to be worth reporting.
Tom Hilton
@Parallel 5ths (Jewish Steel): You and I (first comment) appear to be the only ones who noticed, which is kind of sad. Nobody appreciates the classics.
Dream On
I say good events. Egyptians are tired of having to have government middle-men who collaborate with the mafia to get anything done. Very hard to get a business going in Egypt without dealing with the government-fronted gangsters. I seem to recall there was a Lebanese pop singer who was murdered a year or two ago by a government-connected stooge or his relative. It highlighted the whole corruption of Egypt.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
@auntieeminaz: Here’s some good information about him from back when he got his Nobel Prize http://www.fpif.org/articles/el-baradei_and_the_iaeas_nobel_peace_prize_a_mixed_blessing (he was one of the voices urging the Bush Administration not to invade Iraq, for instance).
Here’s an interview with him from 11 months ago in which he says “We have lived for thousands of years together, Muslims and Christians; we are part of the same society. Of course, tolerance and teaching people to practice tolerance would be one of my immediate priorities from wherever I am. You don’t need to be in office, and it is one of the issues that I talked about today and I will continue to talk about it.” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/19/transcript_mohamed_elbaradei?page=full
My sense is that he’s the kind of leader I’d like to see pull the Egyptian people out of decades of dictatorship — but if he is in fact the very man who could pull it off? I really don’t know enough.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
FYI:
I’ve written a short post with some basic background and good links and a repeat of the information on how to contact the White House to ask the Administration to put pressure on the Egyptian government: http://emilylhauserinmyhead.wordpress.com/2011/01/28/egypt-january-25/
@auntieeminaz: Thanks for doing so already!
Parallel 5ths (Jewish Steel)
@Tom Hilton: ♫♫Destroy your safe and happy lives/Before it is too late♫♫
Poopyman
Mubarak speaking now ….
Poopyman
Guardian:
Al Jazeera:
Update from Guardian:
No idea what that entails ….
Calouste
Moubarak’s given a speech and is saying that he will reshuffle the deckchairs on the Titanic his cabinet. That’s not going to placate the protesters now, will it?
Ash Can
Well, that was definitely an “I am the Deciderer” speech from Mubarak. I don’t see this ending well.
Amir_Khalid
One thing about Elbaradei — the American right might still bear a grudge against him for being right about Iraq not having WMDs, when they themselves were so completely wrong.
As, I recall, that’s what won him (and the IAEA) that Nobel Prize. If he comes to power, I’d expect a lot of petulant hostility directed at him from the Republican party.
Meanwhile, Mubarak is saying “I’ve sacked the government”, and the people in the streets are replying “Sack yourself too!”
ETA: I reckon sacking his government is Mubarak’s idea of a major concession to the people.
Poopyman
Wow. Talks like he’s had nothing to do with past economic conditions but, hey, he’s an Egyptian too, and this government has to resign ASAP! Not him, of course.
I’m thinking this isn’t the end of things….
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
The JTA’s Ron Kampeas wins the Twitter re: Mubarak’s speech, by the way:
“He exhausted his life for the country. Gevalt. Mubarak as Jewish mother.”
http://twitter.com/kampeas/status/31115709161406464
Paula
The blighted NPR has done a handful of stories in recent years about how the Egyptians were fucking fed up with Mubarak. This has little to do with us and we should keep the fuck out of it for the time being.
Snarla
The Muslim Brotherhood’s English-language website has the latest up-to-the-minute news.
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/
Calouste
I doubt the protesters will be satisfied if Moubarak replaces his current cabinet with different hacks from his own party, and I also doubt that anyone from outside Moubarak’s party is willing to serve. Ben Ali dissolved his government but that didn’t help and he was out of the country within 24 hours.
Probably the only reason Moubarak is still in Egypt is that no one is willing to take him in exile. Ben Ali ended up in Saudi Arabia, but with almost a million Egyptian living there, the Saudis should be a bit more careful about Moubarak. Can’t really see who else would be willing to take him, maybe Brunei or so.
Pococurante
Juan Cole is easy to automate, much like a weather person in Texas:
1) Things are so very complex I can’t really bring to all together for you, so…
2) I focus on minutiae…
3) It’s Israel’s fault… no? GOTO (2)
4) Oh not good enough for you? GOTO (1)
5) Yes every country has its own rich history of rationalized suppression, please don’t spend much time thinking about…
6) It’s Washington’s fault, mainly because of REF (3). Or REF (1). But ignore REF (2), because I have a doctorate,
7) REF (2) is all the context I need,
8) AIPAC hates me. And you. And small puppies, certainly kittens. see REF (2), or if insufficient memory GOTO (3)
9) GOTO (1)
10) You’re still here? Buffer overflow. You are AIPAC, GOTO (1)
Anyone could have automated a Juan Cole bot in 1984 with a Commodore 64 and a 50 baud tape drive.
El Cid
@Pococurante: It would be much more difficult to animate your average Horowitz or Commentary etc. ‘bot, right?
Do you need the programming in BASIC to get that, too?
matoko_chan
MOAR interesting.
Anonymous attacks.
its like a 4chan boxmailing attack in cyberspace instead of meatspace!!
i <3 Wikileaks
A Writer At Balloon-Juice
@GR:
I agree.
And thanks to everyone for the information on Egypt. I will do another open thread along these lines tomorrow.
SBJules
@GregB:
I too think Mubarak should leave. Now. I looked up King Farouk last night. I remember when he was deposed in the 50’s when I went to the Saturday matinees every week & saw the Movietone news.