Looking through Nate Silver’s latest rankings (on the right sidebar of this post), when I look at the races in places I know, I’m not buying 50 turnovers. Pomeroy and Herseth are going to hold on in the Dakotas. Hoffman is still going to split some of the Republican vote in NY-23.
It’s going to be fucking ugly, but if I had to bet, I’d bet Speaker Pelosi by an eyelash. I think the prospect of losing the House will push enough unexcited Democrats to the polls, but that’s just a hunch.