The First Cut is the Deepest

Via Nick in the comments, Ben Smith tells us that Carl Paladino’s win means that Cuomo had a “bad day” and that the Cuomo juggernaut is looking as weak as it ever has:

The results in New York tonight cut at Cuomo in two ways, though he wasn’t on the ballot. The first and most obvious is an energized conservative base, which chose a real outsider — Buffalo developer Carl Paladino — as a more plausible, if extremely longshot, vessel for a “mad as hell” anti-Establishment campaign against the “status Cuomo” than would have been the Establishment Republican, a former bank lobbyist.

Back in reality, here’s Buffalopundit who, unlike Ben Smith, bothered to look at the election returns:

I think Paladino will be a formidable challenger and give Cuomo some bad headaches over the next six weeks, but the general election is a very different animal than the Republican primary. But it was clear yesterday that Paladino was going to massacre Lazio in WNY, and massacre him he did – winning 93% – 7% in Erie County. While Paladino’s stunning win came about thanks to about 440,000 Republicans voting, the dull AG race on the Democratic side saw almost 600,000 Democrats vote statewide. Not a lot of enthused, energized Democrats turning out for what became a three-way Schneiderman/Rice/Coffey race.

In other words, the most motivated, angry, tea party guy pulled in 30% fewer votes than the two top Democratic AG candidates in a 5-person race. Cuomo remains the overwhelming frontrunner.

The AG race was the only real one on the Democratic ballot, and it was a total snore.  At 5:30 yesterday, I was the 22nd Democrat to vote in my district, which has at least a couple hundred Democrats.   Even a uninterested, unmotivated base will let Cuomo beat Carl Paladino and his desire to put the poor in remodeled prisons where they can be taught “personal hygiene”.






72 replies
  1. 1
  2. 2
    jibeaux says:

    It seems somehow appropriate that today, the first day I have seen the Christine ads at B-J as we all have fun with her, the ads say “vote Tuesday”.

  3. 3
    El Cid says:

    The thing though is that the Tea Party represents a true and revolutionary grassroots force which totally expresses the current anti-incumbent mood of Real Americans and the Democrats have very little chance of victory in the fall. I learned this via talk radio.

  4. 4
    dmsilev says:

    What about the hard-core bestiality demographic?. Won’t that be enough to put Paladino over the top?

    Sheesh. Between Paladino and O’Donnell, last night was an excellent recruiting opportunity for the every-popular “Republicans With Bizarre Sex Hangups” caucus. Time to invest in wet suit manufacturers.

    dms

  5. 5
    merrinc says:

    They’re trying to build a narrative here, mistermix. Let’s not confuse them with the facts and annoying stuff like actual data and careful analysis. Geesh.

  6. 6
    dmsilev says:

    @jibeaux: Maybe she’s going for the old “vote early, vote often” approach to November?

    dms

  7. 7
    Sly says:

    Palomino will surely cruise to victory on the Pro-Horse-Fucking Vote alone.

  8. 8
    lol says:

    Is ‘This is a bad day for Andrew Cuomo’ the new “this is good news for John McCain”?

  9. 9
    MaximusNYC says:

    At 8:45 pm last night, my wife and I were voters #26 and #27 in our district — a crowded Brooklyn neighborhood.

    As my wife said, voting in primaries makes you feel like your vote actually matters.

  10. 10
    New Yorker says:

    On the topic of bored Democratic voters, I don’t actually know at the moment who won the AG Primary battle in New York. I mean, I went to vote yesterday, but I didn’t pay attention to the results because I was gawking at the train wrecks that are Paladino and O’Donnell.

  11. 11
    Mnemosyne says:

    This is why I thought all of the crowing over the generic ballot is so weird. It’s one thing to tell a pollster that you’d rather vote for a Republican over a Democrat. It’s another thing entirely to walk into that booth and deliberately pull the lever for someone as batshit insane as Christine O’Donnell.

  12. 12
    jibeaux says:

    @dmsilev:

    Could be. Also could be that she’s quite dumb.

  13. 13
    lol says:

    Still, trying to portray a horse dick lover as bad news for… well anyone (except a horse) is a stretch even for Politico.

  14. 14

    WTH was Ben thinking?

    I’m wondering if his post wasn’t just one big snark.

  15. 15
    Villago Delenda Est says:

    @merrinc:

    Exactly so. This is about pushing a storyline, actual factual elements be damned.

  16. 16
    dmsilev says:

    @jibeaux: That’s always a good alternate theory.

    More likely, but sadly less interesting, is that someone bought a bunch of advertising slots and either forgot to turn it off or forgot to change the graphic.

    dms

  17. 17
    REN says:

    Not all Republicans are insane, and many of those who did not vote for these nuts will not vote for them in the general either.

  18. 18
    Violet says:

    @MaximusNYC:

    As my wife said, voting in primaries makes you feel like your vote actually matters.

    Yeah, isn’t it great! I once voted in a local general election, so no national elections to get people out to vote. The candidate I voted for won by nine votes! Big bonus, he beat out a long time, corrupt politician. When I saw the results I was pretty excited. I felt like my vote really counted. Democracy in action.

  19. 19
    aimai says:

    Is this pornography/horse story really true for Paladino? I seem to have missed it, but then I’m not on those email lists. How very wonderful it is, though. Sounds like some post modern mashup of scenes from the Godfather and the Sopranos. Or maybe I mean how very old fashioned.

    aimai

  20. 20

    @Mnemosyne: What about all those South Carolina residents who voted for Alvin Greene?

  21. 21
  22. 22
    Steve says:

    The Democratic base has a lot of components, but Schneiderman seemed like the candidate preferred by liberal activists, particularly online progressives. His impressive victory suggests that we haven’t all become firebaggers just yet.

  23. 23
    Culture of Truth says:

    Ben Smith tells us that Carl Paladino’s win means that Cuomo had a “bad day”

    * SNORT *

  24. 24
    Martin says:

    @Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: Wasn’t that a race with effectively zero campaigning? I pull the lever for judges in my county all the time. I have no fucking idea who they are.

    There’s no goddamn way most voters went into the ballot booth in DE and didn’t know who these candidates were.

  25. 25
    JGabriel says:

    mistermix:

    At 5:30 yesterday, I was the 22nd Democrat to vote in my district, which has at least a couple hundred Democrats.

    Weird meaningless coincidence: I was the 22nd voter at my polling station yesterday, but it was about 1:30 pm.

    .

  26. 26
    Steve says:

    @aimai: He had a response that was charmingly chauvinistic, along the lines of “Ladies, I’m sorry. Guys, if you’ve never opened a lewd picture on the Internet, I guess I don’t want your vote.”

  27. 27
    beltane says:

    I think Paladino will energize NYC Dems in ways Lazio never could have. You want minority turnout in November? Paladino will provide.

    The punditry seems to be operating under the assumption that there are only three or four Democratic voters left in the country.

  28. 28
    cleek says:

    this is hilarious, Dan Rhiel v Rove:

    “Especially given his comments on Fox News tonight, until this is resolved, it seems impossible to trust Rove as an objective analyst,” Riehl wrote. “In terms of the conservative movement, we should not simply ignore him, but proactively work to undermine Rove in whatever ways we can, given his obvious willingness to undermine us.”

    Karl Rove: no longer an “objective analyst”.

    welcome to the future

  29. 29
    lol says:

    For all of y’all that missed out on the horse dick loving fun.

    The worst is censored out but it may still be NSFW depending on your employer.

  30. 30
    beltane says:

    @cleek: Karl Rove is now a DFH. The wingnut event horizon has been crossed. Welcome to your nightmare.

  31. 31
    Violet says:

    @cleek:
    Hah. I figured it wouldn’t take long. Anyone want to take bets on how long before they start questioning his sexuality and hinting that he’s gay and therefore not a “real conservative”?

  32. 32
    Steve says:

    @cleek: Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. This is payback for every sanctimonious speech an establishment Republican gave about all the wonderful energy the patriots in the Tea Party are bringing to the electoral process, blah blah blah. They created and nurtured this monster and now they must dance with it.

  33. 33
    Mnemosyne says:

    @Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle:

    Primary elections =/= general elections.

    Also, South Carolina apparently has an open primary, though I’m not entirely sure how it works. Since that’s the case, then shenanigans would be my first theory, especially since you have Republicans in Arizona hiring homeless people to run as Green Party candidates.

  34. 34
    p.a. says:

    Right wing nuts attack right wing scum! (from TPM)

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.....hp?ref=fpi

    I have many more important things to do with my time, but I’m going to have to do some reading on the demise of the Whigs and see how weird that was compared to the pending Republican crack-up.

  35. 35
    Culture of Truth says:

    It’s like Robespierre vs. Danton

  36. 36
    scav says:

    well, yeah, come on, wasn’t Rove the one that got that notorious liberal W elected? sheesh, keep up with the narrative people. Oh, and, as a thought exercise, is sex with horses the approved GOP substitute for masturbation or would any animal do. I would assume, the horses/critters have to be of the opposite sex to avoid the whole wide-stance issue, correct?

  37. 37
    p.a. says:

    it seems impossible to trust Rove as an objective analyst,” Riehl wrote.

    Riehl logic: he’s not objective because he didn’t lockstep goosestep support the nominee!

  38. 38

    @cleek:

    Karl Rove: no longer an “objective analyst”

    Are they referring to the interview of Rove by Hannity?

    1. Hannity is an objective analyst?

    2. Hannity is an intelligent analyst?

    3. Rove is not stupid.

    4. I think Rove was trying to separate McDonnell from the Republican Party. And that might prove to be the politically astute thing to do.

    5. What is this about not asking a question of a person when you don’t know how they will answer? Maybe this should also apply to interviews on national television?

  39. 39
    soonergrunt says:

    I think the key to this whole post is that Ben Smith was writing in Politico. That’s really all you need to know to understand the hows and the whys of him claiming that a batshit bigoted misogynist like Paladino is going to beat Andrew Cuomo in New Fucking York. This is the same magazine that declared Castle the winner in Delaware last night the moment the polls closed.

  40. 40
    Ash Can says:

    Sounds like Karl Rove finally does have “the math.”

  41. 41

    @scav:

    I would assume, the horses/critters have to be of the opposite sex to avoid the whole wide-stance issue, correct?

    Would it be possible with a horse while assuming a narrow stance?

    Where did I put my copy of the Kama Sutra?

  42. 42
    scav says:

    @Linda Featheringill:

    Where did I put my copy of the Kama Sutra?

    Next to the most recent copy of the GOP Playbook?

  43. 43
    Culture of Truth says:

    so sad Lazio just wasn’t crazy enough.

  44. 44

    @scav:

    Next to the most recent copy of the GOP Playbook?

    There it is! Thank you!

    :-)

  45. 45
    Corner Stone says:

    Rove is on the grift too, just in a different direction than Palin and her fellow nutters.
    There’s plenty of stupid money to go around on the “right” side of the spectrum.

  46. 46
    Corner Stone says:

    @Culture of Truth: I know. He has such great freakin’ hair.

  47. 47
    fasteddie9318 says:

    @scav:

    Where did I put my copy of the Kama Sutra?

    __
    Next to the most recent copy of the GOP Playbook?

    Aren’t they the same book? Whether it’s a horse, a strange man in the airport bathroom, or the bottom 98% of the country, the GOP is always trying to fuck somebody.

  48. 48
    JGabriel says:

    Carl Paladino via Steve:

    Guys, if you’ve never opened a lewd picture on the Internet, I guess I don’t want your vote.

    Dude, it’s not the opening of a lewd picture on the internet that’s the problem – it’s the sending out bestiality porn to all your friends that raises questions about your judgement.

    But hey, that other video you sent out, of African tribal dancing labelled “Obama Inauguration Rehearsal”, will really help your numbers with the racist wing in New York.

    .

  49. 49
    Corner Stone says:

    I can’t believe anyone who has ever seen video of Paladino actually voted for him.
    Dude looks like a member of the undead. All grey and with a kind of sweaty sheen to his skin.

  50. 50
    soonergrunt says:

    @Corner Stone:

    Rove is on the grift too, just in a different direction than Palin and her fellow nutters.
    There’s plenty of stupid money to go around on the “right” side of the spectrum.

    That’s where I think you’re wrong. There’s not enough money to go around, and that’s why he’s on the attack. If he doesn’t nip this in the bud soon, all the money will follow the crazy, and there’ll be none left for the casual evil. The crazy gets the attention, and therefore the cash, unless it can be derailed. Otherwise there’s nothing left over for the casual evil wing of the party that’s occupied by the Bush family and others who would actually hire Karl. He’s got alimony payments to make now, as well as keeping his leather slave properly attired.

  51. 51
    p.a. says:

    @fasteddie9318:

    the GOP is always trying to fuck somebody.

    Trying? Since 1980 their average is better than Ty fucking Cobb’s.

  52. 52
    Culture of Truth says:

    Have we gotten Paladino and O’Donnell in the same room yet?

    Can we make that happen?

  53. 53
    scav says:

    @p.a.:

    Trying? Since 1980 their average is better than Ty fucking Cobb’s

    should this be Cob which could indicate a small sturdy pony, an adult male swan, a gull, or part of an ear of corn, the last of which would at least be a new direction for them to take. Vegetables, for the vegetarian GOP.

  54. 54
    JGabriel says:

    Linda Featheringill:

    I think Rove was trying to separate O’Donnell from the Republican Party. And that might prove to be the politically astute thing to do.

    Maybe, maybe not. For someone whose career successes have lain in appealing to the base (in both senses), an argument could be made that supporting another photogenic, media-experienced, winger celebrity in the mold of Palin and Bachmann, might be the smarter political move for Rove to take within the GOP.

    Rove is certainly regarded as a RINO now in the Teahadi wing.

    .

  55. 55
    beltane says:

    @Corner Stone: You are assuming the people who voted for Paladino do not look like the undead themselves. Wingnuts are a tribe apart; normal standards of beauty do not apply to them.

  56. 56
    Nick says:

    My grandmother, who has never voted for a Democratic gubernatorial nominee in New York, and even worked on the campaigns of Andrew O’Rourke, Pierre Rinfret, and John Faso, will not vote for Paladino and already decided on Cuomo.

  57. 57
    Culture of Truth says:

    Lazio was on Meet The Press – million of people watching, and he couldn’t seal the deal.

    Unless that was the problem.

  58. 58
    beltane says:

    After seeing pictures of her I think I’m going to refer to Christine O’Donnell as “Chunky Sarah Palin”. Ross Douthat has probably sinned after watching her on TV.

  59. 59
    Corner Stone says:

    @soonergrunt: IMO, there’s the crazy crazy vs the establishment crazy. Palin et al are grifting the crazy crazy and Rove is doing his best to set up a shadow RNC to grift the establishment crazy.
    He’s pushing fear too, it’s just fear of the crazy crazy and the loss of authentic power in the establishment crazy their rise will create.

  60. 60
    Corner Stone says:

    @beltane: Hmmm, ISTM you’re making the Blade II Movie argument.
    There’s vampires, and then there’s some freakish genetic evolution of vampires “Reaper Vampires” whose jaws can unhinge and do nasty things. So Tea Partiers are the Reaper vampires that feed on the old school Vampire Council followers.

  61. 61

    In case you missed it Bill Maher was absolutely fantastic on Larry King Live last night…here is the full appearance without the commercial interruptions :

    LINK

  62. 62
    scav says:

    In re: vampires, won’t they just vote in whichever of them is a whiter shade of pale?

  63. 63
    DougJ says:

    Dumbest Ben Smith piece ever. The real story here is Lazio on the conservative line. I’ve spoken with some people in the conservative party (indirectly) and they are stoked about the Lazio conservative line run.

  64. 64
    Steve says:

    @DougJ: Is Cuomo going to run on the WFP line? Last I heard, he was actually setting conditions before he would accept their endorsement. You know you have a big lead when you can do something like that.

  65. 65
    Dave S. says:

    “Status Cuomo” is a good line – might even win the morning. That being said, I suspect Smith put 95% of his time and effort into coming up with that, then padded it with the rest.

  66. 66
    Culture of Truth says:

    People are very frustrated with Albany, but no one holds Cuomo responsible. I’m not sure anyone thinks he can fix it, but people don’t think of him as the problem, yet.

  67. 67
    p.a. says:

    @scav:

    should this be Cob which could indicate a small sturdy pony, an adult male swan, a gull, or part of an ear of corn, the last of which would at least be a new direction for them to take. Vegetables, for the vegetarian GOP.

    um… to quote from the movie Big, “I don’t get it.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ty_Cobb

  68. 68
    The Republic of Stupidity says:

    Yeah…

    But you gotta admit, this Nov’s election is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining ever…

    Kinda like a mid 60’s doofus comedy…

    “It’s A Mad, Mad, Mad World”… something along those lines…

    I wonder how the bookies will play this?

  69. 69
    scav says:

    @p.a.: Well, take a “Ty fucking Cobb”, and then imagine who Ty might be fucking given the current thread . . . are you looking for a position as straight man?

  70. 70
    drew42 says:

    Ben Smith must be reading the comments on this blog. I had already hand-wrung about the Paladino “Mad As Hell” appeal last night.

    Of course, I was drunk last night. Ben Smith has no excuse.

  71. 71
    binzinerator says:

    @DoubleDutchPolitics: Followed that link you gave and heard this from Bill Maher:

    “The teabaggers, the one thing they hate is when you call them racists. The other thing they hate is black people.”

    Beautimous. Just beautimous.

  72. 72
    DougJ says:

    @Steve:

    I wonder. You’re right, he’ll win by a mile anyway, so he doesn’t care.

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