Via the comments, some good news: Last night, a Democrat won big in the special election in Florida’s 19th district.
More good news: Yesterday, George Pataki became the latest in a long string of Republicans to duck a run against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, even though seemingly every challenger characterizes her as “weak, spineless and out of touch.” Pataki decided instead to confirm his true patriotism, not to mention his complete political irrelevance, by starting “Revere America”, an organization that will run a petition drive to ask for the repeal of healthcare reform.
65% of the voters in the Florida district, and 63% of New Yorkers, voted for Obama in 2008. There are just some places where all the teabaggery in the world won’t make a whit of difference, and it’s nice to see confirmation of that fact.
By the way, my take is that Gillibrand is consistently underrated. She’s smart, hard-working and a great fundraiser. She’ll be New York’s Senator as long as she wants to the job.
Paul W.
I was on for the first half of a big OFA-for-Gillibrand conference call yesterday, and I can see why the Republican opposition is withering like flies. I’m a relative newcomer to NYC (6+ years now), but have come to really like my adopted Senators. Gillibrand first started with a robust defense of the PPACA health care law and said that she wasn’t done yet, her second topic was an optimistic push for repeal of DADT. She even took a question on financial reform and said much that was right (although ducked on specifics), and took a stronger stance on the consumer protections portion than I would have expected from a NY Senator.
All and all, she is articulate, passionate, and surprisingly progressive Senator (especially compared to some of the teeth gnashing I saw coming from the left before her appointment). She is organizing chops, a good war chest, and a lot to run on come November… I wouldn’t want to be a Republican opposing her either. I would end by noting that she is a relatively progressive candidate who is NOT facing a primary from the left at present, meaning much of this legislative momentum is of her own volition.
I’m pretty damn impressed, and I plan to show it when the campaign season comes into full gear.
Brian J
I may be extrapolating too much here, because New York is certainly different than Ohio, Florida, or any other states where there may be a competitive Senate race this year, but I wonder if a lot of Republicans are passing on the race because they know that it’ll be a lot tighter than the polls now indicate it might be.
Of course, the same could be true in states where there are vulnerable Republicans, who are facing the same sort of anti-incumbent atmosphere that many Democrats are up against.
Ash Can
It beats him getting drunk every night and hollering and whizzing in his neighbors’ alley and breaking their garage windows, I guess.
low-tech cyclist
The good news from FL-19 is that Deutch, the Democrat, won a D+15 seat by 26 points, running 11 points ahead of his district. Lynch, the Republican, tried to make the special election a referendum on Obama. Big fail.
geg6
As someone who was very concerned when Gillibrand was appointed simply based on being from NY-20, she has mightily impressed me. Who knew this strong, smart, progressive woman was there? Perhaps people in Saratoga or the Catskills knew this, but from where I sat here in W.PA, it has been a hugely pleasant surprise. And I find the complete cowardice on the part of every single prominent New York Republican when it comes to running against her hilarious. Especially because they go so far out of their way to say how weak and ineffectual she is. I mean, do they really think anyone is buying the line that she’s so weak that they won’t deign to run against her?
Violet
@geg6:
Me too. It’s getting to the point where it’s almost a comedy routine. Look at the big, scary Republicans call the nice Democratic lady “weak” and “ineffectual.” Now look at them run away screaming when someone suggests they run against her. Hee. Where’s my popcorn? This show is good!
PTirebiter
Revere? I wonder how long and how much money it took to come up with that tri-cornered ass-hat gem.
Jeff
She always was underrated. She started out by beating an incumbent
‘Puke in a blood red district. (Of course it didn’t hurt that he is a drunk who beat his wife and had a propensity for showing up plastered at college frat parties.) But she won against a self-funding opponent handily,and has given good constituent service.
David Paterson took a lot of shit for appointing her, particularly in his Hamlet-like process of vetting her, but the results speak for themselves.
MattF
Could it be that the right-wing noise machine motivates Democrats to get out and vote against Republicans? Well, whatever… but I’ll bet you won’t see anyone suggesting that on Meet The Press.
JGabriel
MisterMix @ Top:
I agree. Gillibrand’s numbers now might be suffering from the whole appointed-by-Paterson thing, but I liked the way she committed, when appointed, to representing the whole state, rather than only her district, and proceeded to do just that.
She comes across as a smart pol who follows through.
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Thomas
Wait, shouldn’t this be tagged in good news for conservatives? Certainly the villagers will tell us so.
Norbrook
@Brian J: The reason they’re passing on it is that they know it wouldn’t be that close in the first place. Pataki only received the poll ratings he did because of name recognition, and Paterson has made him look like a good governor in comparison.
Gillibrand has a hell of a war chest, and anyone who has watched her in the past knows that she’s quite capable of conducting a brass knuckle campaign when necessary. Given that the “top Republicans” – Giuliani and Pataki – still nuture hopes of running for President, they don’t want to get into a bloody fight for an office they really don’t want.
Then when you factor in that she’s turned out to be a very good Senator for the state, it’s going to be even tougher to get people to want to remove her from office.
Brian J
@MattF:
Maybe. Or maybe it’s because certain Democrats are leading father than holding back like scared kids. Case in point: Tom Periello. I don’t know if anyone has posted this before, but he’s raking in cash and traveling around his district touting the accomplishment of health care reform and explaining how it works. If only more Democrats acted like him.
Brian J
@Norbrook:
That’s more or less what I am saying. Maybe this trend, where initial poll numbers show something positive for one reason or another, is confined more to New York than anywhere else, but maybe not. But if there was really a chance of them beating her, they’d be lining up for the chance.
JGabriel
OT, but this is kind of funny. K-Lo’s House of Crazy is upset (h/t Wonkette).
It seems a local alt-weekly has a contest going for best protest signs on Palin’s visit to Boston. Yeah, I guess some of them are just as offensive as the teabagger banners, but The Corner decided to highlight one with a manipulated Sarah photo headlined:
I laughed, wondered if I was just as hypocritical as the baggers, but then decided that I’d probably also laugh if any baggers were witty enough to feature a banner as self-deprecating as ” … and I usually dig black cock”.
I’m probably going to hell for that …
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kay
I find this very motivating.
The “moderate” in Virginia strikes again:
This makes me sick to my stomach. McDonnell’s wingnut staffers are going to be reading these essays. It’s completely discretionary. The process used in the past was a one-page form with just the facts: conviction and sentence. Now we’re into whether you pass the lunatic religious voting rights test.
The idea that non-violent felons who have served their sentences have to beg his dumb-ass staffers for the restoration of voting rights is just sickening.
I hate these people.
I think he should have to submit an essay on the causes of the Civil War.
WereBear
As a Gillibrand original constituent, I’m completely satisfied. I met her at a Meet the Candidates thing a few years ago, and was mightily impressed.
And I will tease geg6 by reminding her that a lot of hippies live up here in the Adirondack Park, doing artisan crafts and baking with maple syrup. :)
BenA
@MattF:
Good point. :-)
Norbrook
@Brian J: Initial polling only fools people who don’t live in the state, or who want to fool themselves. I live near the border of NY-20, so I saw what she did. 2006 was a very tough election, that saw her take on an established incumbent in an R+2 district – one that had been designed to be a “safe Republican” district. Now admittedly, she caught a break when it turned out that Sweeney couldn’t keep sober or stop smacking his wife, and that it was a “change year.” But she demonstrated that she could run a tough campaign against the odds.
What the politicians in this state know, and what seems to get missed by everyone outside of the state – and the media – is what she did after that. She worked her butt off as a Representative. Then, when she ran for re-election against a very well-funded Republican opponent, she absolutely crushed him in the voting.
That’s why no one really wanted to challenge her. She may have caught a break, but once she’s got it, she runs with it – and is damn near unbeatable.
Ash Can
@kay: Actually, this strikes me as not at all legally kosher, especially the church part. What are the chances he’ll be told to cease and desist? And who would be the one to tell him, since his AG is batshit insane?
ellaesther
Aside from anything else, Gillibrand very quickly came out and said stuff that Senators from NY don’t generally say about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict right after she was named: She told reporters that she wouldn’t necessarily support the policies of the Israeli government if she didn’t believe that they were pro-peace, and regarding the future of the region given the election of Netanyahu, she said, “I will certainly offer what I think is the best policy, regardless of what Netanyahu says is what he wants to do. I will always be an advocate for the solutions that I think will be most effective.” She continued: “I think the President will use all the means and all the tools in his toolbox to reach a solution for peace in the Middle East.”
This made me happy and her recent confirmation of said attitudes made me happy again.
Paris
She’ll be New York’s Senator as long as she wants to the job.
Yes. Also.
JMC in the ATL
@JGabriel: Well, they’re called Massholes for a reason.
JGabriel
MattF:
It’s hard to overstate the importance of that. Gillibrand was replacing Clinton, who also had a good rep for constituent services. And Schumer’s rep in that area is not particularly good, so Gillibrand is filling an important role there.
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Zifnab
She’s no Coakley, that appears certain. And we can all be grateful for it. That said, it’ll be fun watching the Republicans run on repealing health care reform.
So, double win.
BC
Like Palin, Pataki and Giuliani don’t actually plan to do any work. Sure, they’ll have their names hanging there as potential candidates for high profile races. They’ll raise funds for their exploratory committees and may even actually enter a race (and raise funds). They’ll fail, but even failure has a silver lining – they get to keep all the funds they raised. They’re grifters, riding the rightwing welfare gravy train as far as they can.
Bulworth
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I endorse this. I doubt Pataki knows what the HCR legislation does, he appears not to understand that federal policy is not subject to petition-driven voter referendums, and he won’t be occupying any public office. All in all, it sounds like a good use of teabagger time and dollars.
4tehlulz
@kay: Well, if you’re trying for a nice shiny federal lawsuit, this is the way to go.
WHY IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEFENDING VOTES FOR
NEGROESCONVICTS? VOTE FOR BOB MCDONNELL FOR PRESIDENT OF THE CONFEDERATE STATES OF AMERICA FUCK YEAHburnspbesq
@Ash Can:
Sounds like a job for the local chapter of the ACLU.
David in NY
@geg6:
There is a danger in drawing conclusions from a distance. Even as a part-time resident of NY-20, just hearing her on the NPR interview shows made it clear that she was incredibly smart and closely attuned to her district. Though she was no farm girl, she was elected to represent a heavily agricultural district, she got on the Ag committee, and she really got to know those issues inside and out in a year when the five-year Ag bill was up. Also, although she took some conservative positions, when the chips were down and it counted, she came through with a liberal vote.
@JGabriel:
And I always thought that she was a lot like Hillary, or at least followed Hillary’s game plan. Do your homework, make it clear to the constituents that you’re listening to them and that you understand their concerns, and they’ll figure out that you’re the real deal.
burnspbesq
Interesting note re Schumer:
There was an internal email at our firm yesterday, from the guy in our DC office whose job it is to monitor developments on the Hill as they relate to tax law issues, indicating that Schumer may be changing his mind on the treatment of “carried interest.” It would be a huge game-changer on this issue if a senior Senator who is often accused of being owned by the hedge-fund guys turns on them and says their management fees should be treated as ordinary income instead of capital gain.
Worth watching.
Ron
I had a lot of doubts initially when I heard Gillibrand was who Paterson was appointing, but honestly those have not just been swept away, but I’ve become a huge fan of hers. I don’t know that it could have been predicted but she’s really become one of my favorite senators.
rootless-e
@burnspbesq: well the luntz strategy is to oppose the finance bill from the populist side on the assumption that Dems will not move that way – and I think that’s not a given in this climate.
It would be hilarious if the Pukes caused strong regulation to pass in their attempt to stop any.
David in NY
@burnspbesq:
And about fucking time. The Times, by the way, in an unrelated editorial yesterday, fingered the “carried interest” scam as ripe for change. I vaguely understand Schumer’s original position — the hedge fund guys are a real source of funding for Democrats and Wall Street money has kept the economy here pumping along. But as far as I can tell, letting those guys treat as capital gains what by any stretch of the imagination is actually ordinary income is totally unjustifiable.
EDIT: Oh cripes, you’re a tax lawyer? Now I’ll have to listen to the “explanation”?
akaoni
This post titled reminded me of the Pepe Deluxe song: Go For Blue. The Act Blue links also remind me of the song which is pure awesome!
burnspbesq
@David in NY:
You already know the explanation. Whatever you choose to call it, it’s compensation for services. And compensation for services is ordinary income.
That wasn’t so bad, was it? This isn’t a technical issue, it’s a common sense and fairness issue.
If I wanted to inflict pain, I would write about the foreign tax credit. ;-)
David in NY
As the Times put its position on “carried interest” (which I see as ordinary income taxed at capital gains rates):
I think it will be hard for Schumer to keep opposing a change in this system.
PTirebiter
@kay: Yea, I saw that, it’s frighteningly cynical politics. It will undoubtedly be stayed by the first federal judge the ACLU finds to review it. I guess a poll tax is appropriate for confederate appreciation month. This guy is definitely bent.
SIA
@JGabriel: Love the sign. Thanks for making my day!
Joey Maloney
@BC: So it sounds like what you’re saying is, some Republican found a DVD of “The Producers” and thought it was an instructional manual? Kind of like the aliens of Galaxyquest and their “historical documents”?
David in NY
@burnspbesq:
Sorry, I feared I might have to hear the alleged “rationale” for the current treatment of “carried interest” which, since I see it exactly the way you state, has always completely eluded me.
Ash Can
@JGabriel:
K-Lo can come whining to me when those protest signs start featuring guns, gun sights, and other threats of violence along with their off-color insults.
PeakVT
I’m just glad Patterson appointed Gillibrand and not Caroline Kennedy.
rootless-e
Oddly enough Yves Smith has not responded to me on her site or on Huffpo about the big factual error I pointed out in her lame effort to manufacture a Rahm Emanuel scandal.
Wonder why.
Steaming Pile
AND, she’s from Upstate, a Republican stronghold of sorts that is usually underrepresented in statewide offices. Who doesn’t like her? Bloomberg Democrats from downstate, that’s who. F*** them.
Steaming Pile
#10 – and being from Upstate, Sen. Gillibrand sees the necessity of representing the whole state a lot more clearly than most New York pols who hold statewide office. This, of course, has certain Bloomberg Dems upset, hence the recent failed effort to recruit Harold Ford to run against her.
Xenos
@burnspbesq: I am not surprised to hear about the carried interest change… and it is certainly interesting that this balloon is being floated as positions are being set for the big financial reforms. From what I have heard on the international taxation front is that the proposed reforms are not going to net nearly as much revenue as hoped. If true that may be related to such changes to the carried interest rule.
carlos the dwarf
Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gillibrand makes a credible run for president somewhere in the 2016-2024 time frame. She’s always impressed me.
gwangung
Gee, isn’t that what you want from your politicans anyway?
JGabriel
@PeakVT:
I am too. I like Kennedy and honestly think she would have been a reliable progressive vote, but Gillibrand will do the work to make sure that constituents will feel listened to and that she’s responding to their needs, rather than setting herself up to be portrayed as the “out of touch liberal” target that Kennedy seemed to be headed for.
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burnspbesq
@David in NY:
The simple version of the technical argument for capital gain treatment runs like this:
Hedge funds and private equity funds are set up as partnerships. Partnerships are pass-through entities; they don’t pay tax, but the partners are taxed on their shares of partnership income when the partnership earns it, regardless of whether any cash is actually distributed. The managers don’t pay themselves an explicit fee for management services; instead, they take an interest in the partnership. And when the partnership earns capital gains, their share of the capital gain retains that character when they report it on their returns. Presto! Tens of millions of dollars of compensation for services taxed at 15 percent!
There’s no voodoo here. It’s a simple and straight-forward application of fundamental principles of partnership taxation. It’s technically correct. Every one of these guys has an opinion letter from a reputable law firm or a Big Four accounting firm saying that it is more likely than not that they will win if their claim of capital gain treatment is challenged by the IRS. And they will win.
However, as you’ve noted, it’s outrageous, and anyone outside the hedge-fund and private-equity world that you explain it to gets pissed off about it. The party’s over. Changing this is scored to raise somewhere north of $30 billion over ten years, and now that we are back to having paygo budgeting, this is just too tempting a target for Congress to ignore.
Schumer is just acting like he represents the entire state. There’s no way he wants to have to explain this in Glens Falls or Elmira or Jamestown.
burnspbesq
@Xenos:
The big revenue-raiser in the 2009 Green Book international tax proposals was repeal of check-the-box. That’s been taken off the table, so there is a need for more offsets.
Alex S.
I think that she will become the first female president.
daveinboca
The FL 19th is a little replica of NYC & about 70% Jewish. They bus the Century Villagers over to the polls and vote solid-Jew, unmindful that Deutch has problems with Israel that they don’t share.
His absentee predecessor Wexler got close to 70% last election.
David in NY
@burnspbesq: @burnspbesq:
Thanks for the actual “explanation.” It’s interesting to me because in my only actual fling in the stock market, I briefly had some guy trading for me (making about 33%), and I quit because our agreement structured the arrangement as a partnership (while he was clearly getting employee compensation from me), and I didn’t like the feel of it.
But I’m just a criminal lawyer, so maybe I’m more sensitive to such problems than others — I’ve actually had clients convicted of fraud when their technically correct financial manipulations lacked “economic reality.”
mclaren
Why do the Republican stop at “revere America”? Why not go all in?
The Republicans need to have the courage of their convictions and start a drive to REPEAL AMERICA!
Will
Right, because that’s so much more helpful to the cause of repealing health care than electing an extra GOP Senator.
William Q. Pilgrim
@Ash Can:
Must be a typo in that Pataki group name, because the letter “s” is missing from the word “reverse”.
rrlieberma
Kirsten Gillibrand is indeed a worthy successor to Hillary Clinton.