Because Larry Kudlow is predicting a recovery:
Conservatives shouldn’t fight the tale of the tape.
Sometimes you have to take out your political lenses and look at the actual statistics to get a true picture of the health of the American economy. Right now, those statistics are saying a modest cyclical rebound following a very deep downturn could actually be turning into a full-fledged, V-shaped, recovery boom between now and year-end.
I’m aiming this thought especially at many of my conservative friends who seem to be trashing the improving economic outlook — largely, it would appear, to discredit the Obama administration.
Don’t do it folks. It’s a mistake. The numbers are the numbers. And prosperity is a welcome development for a nation that has suffered mightily.
Credibility is at issue here.
Conservative credibility.
Capitalist credibility.
We’re screwed. And since when does conservative credibility matter a whit- you just lie, get the bobbleheads to repeat it, and when it turns out you were lying all along, you’ll have already moved on to the next lie. Credibility is for chumps and Democrats.
Zandar
Oh that’s even better than Jim Cramer saying “No” this week to “Are we headed for a double dip recession?” Kudlow is upping the stakes to a full-blown V-shaped recovery, is he?
God we are fucked. Canned food and shotguns time.
The Dangerman
Largely? LARGELY?!! What clued the fucker in finally?
This is roughly equivalent to Tunch gaining the ability to speak and asking a variant of that nightmare question for Guys from their SigO’s:
“Does this fur make my butt look large?”
SGEW
How long before Bill Kristol declares that the recession is over?
Brian J
Hey, in the hope that Kudlow DOESN’T have the reverse Midas touch, wasn’t he simply assuming that a rising stock market meant prosperity for all? In other words, wasn’t he not making predictions, like Bill Kristol, but instead trying to find a trend where there wasn’t any?
burnspbesq
Kudlow? Yawn.
beltane
I think this is part of Kudlow and some not-quite-as-stupid-as-Palin Republicans’ new tactic to sound less teabagger crazy. Because if the economy is doing well, why the rush to go after the banks, so lets talk up the economy.
These people are weasels.
robertdsc
More jobs, please.
/unemployed
beltane
@SGEW: I’d give it six months or so.
demimondian
@SGEW: I’m think the day after election day.
beltane
@SGEW: I’d give it six months or so. Oh wait, that’s Friedman. I’d give Kristol another couple of days; he’ll have to tie it into foreign policy somehow.
J. Michael Neal
@beltane:
You are correct, but the way you wrote it, some might not understand that the intersection of “Kudlow” and “not-quite-as-stupid-as-Palin” is the null set.
PeakVT
I’m aiming this thought especially at many of my conservative friends who seem to be trashing the improving economic outlook — largely, it would appear, to discredit the Obama administration.
I have better things to do than to find the clips, but I am fairly sure that Larry Cokeblow was one of these people only a short year or so ago.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
If it’s one thing I can stomach is a wingnut who thinks with his wallet. It is predictable and familiar and usually doesn’t include protest signs with a dem president sporting a Hitler mustache. You go Larry Kudlow. Would you like another line of blow?
ellaesther
Ah, but sir, you repeat yourself.
ellaesther
@robertdsc: Yes. More, and perhaps an end to the bottoming out of the print industry.
/underemployed writer.
DougL (frmrly: Conservatively Liberal)
We are truly damned. Maybe Kudchewer is setting the stage for the next “Obama Failure”? Build hopes so that when reality hits the ‘true believers’ in his SOP will be doubly pissed at Obama?
Either way, if Ol’ Larry says up you know its going to be down. Good thing he isn’t monitoring volcanoes.
calipygian
Kudlow is predicting a recovery? Price of coke must have spiked.
robertdsc
@ellaesther:
I hear you so very well.
/unemployed printer
Mark S.
Why does Breitbart have even the little bit of fame he has? The best I can tell, he used to work for Drudge. Is that all you have to do to get on TV these days?
stannate
America’s Back! The Remarkable Tale Of Our Economic Turnaround
Newsweek‘s cover story, as penned by Daniel Gross.
I’ll admit that I have not read the article, but its title immediately brought to mind Newsweek’s younger, brasher, knee-jerk contrarian sister.
jeff
Y’all: I have one investment strategy. Never allow your investments to be influenced by your ideology. I wish my relatives had heeded that when I told them. I, anyway, have twice the money I had a year ago. . . I now have ten hundred dollars.
Comrade Kevin
OT…A dispatch from Crazy Town.
jl
“RIGHT NOW, those statistics are saying a modest cyclical rebound following a very deep downturn COULD actually be turning into a full-fledged, V-shaped, recovery boom between now and year-end.”
[caps added for emphasis]
I agree with commenters above, Kudlow is just making an observation of likelihoods based on recent trends.
Not really an official prediction of prosperity.
Phew. There may be hope we don’t crash dive into a new stone age, economically speaking. That dang Cole had me worried for a little bit. Quit pulling our legs, Cole. It ain’t funny.
YellowJournalism
@robertdsc: Maybe you and ella should get together and start a Tunch newsletter.
slag
@ellaesther:
Ha! I knew someone would beat me to it.
Personally, I’m still trying to figure out how to get out of being a chump. But, honestly, I haven’t found any better alternatives.
Brick Oven Bill
Here, John is exactly right. There is no such thing as a consumer economy. Recovery comes only from work and thrift, not manufactured or borrowed cash.
Use Kudlow in this instance as a lens to peer into those of the circle.
John needs to get off this Democrat Party thing though, Matt Stoller be damned. We can instead make money selling pizza dough kits.
ellaesther
@robertdsc: Dude! We could pay each other! It wouldn’t carry the same punch of being able to actually make purchases and pay bills, but at least we’d get the satisfaction of being paid by someone. We can just pass the check back and forth once a week.
arguingwithsignposts
@Mark S.:
Not even that {cough} Erick son of Erick{cough}
Mike in NC
The newest oxymoron: conservative credibility. Kind of like the “permanent majority” Rove had planned?
Oscar Leroy
“The best I can tell, he used to work for Drudge. Is that all you have to do to get on TV these days? ”
Drudge rules their world.
Brian J
@jl:
Still, his constant cheerleading for nonexistant prosperity during the Bush years prompted some truly hilarious responses from those on the left. If you ever want a good laugh, type “Larry Kudlow” into the search bar of Brad DeLong’s blog. I guarantee you won’t be be disappointed.
Mike G
This is the same Larry Cokeblow who beamed, “The Bush Boom economy is roaring with no end in sight!” in December 2007, just before everything turned to shit.
MikeJ
OT, but since I didn’t see Treme the other night, I’m catching it now. Goodman rocks.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
Ot
The Apple Dumpling Revolution appears to be over cooked.
Kirk Spencer
Unemployed (beyond the odd job here and there) for two years. That said…
Kudlow’s a blind hog. As in “even a blind hog finds an acorn now and then.”
Barring a couple of hanging possibilities, we’re recovering. Not recovered, just recovering.
It will be a “jobless” recovery — or rather, a very slow decline in unemployment — at least through June. Even then unemployment isn’t going to surge to a good number anytime soon. That said, the major indicators — gdp and such — will be solid for a while.
Longer term there are some issues. Not less than three years from now and not more than eight we will face another major bout of ugliness if we don’t get some things fixed. I don’t see us fixing them, so expect the crash.
But for now, Kudlow’s a blind hog and has found his acorn.
ellaesther
@YellowJournalism: Well, and given your handle, I’m guessing you could be employed to dig up dirt on Lily.
“Is she the sweet, mild-mannered pup who butters John Cole up — or is she a hound from hell? We report – you decide!”
ellaesther
@slag: Exactly.
For 14 years I lived in a land where “don’t be a chump” is like a national mantra (“al tehiyeh fri’yer,” in the Holy Tongue) and at some point, I realized that all that lands one is constant anger.
I’ll be a chump now and then, if it means I don’t have to mad all the damn time.
Max
Would this be called the Bush Recovery to the Obama Recession?
DougL (frmrly: Conservatively Liberal)
@General Egali Tarian Stuck:
There’s that damned 28% again…lol! It sure sucks when 28% of your country is certifiably insane.
ExtremismInTheDefenseOfLiberty
Jobs are the last thing that will come back. Just like we said would happen in 2008 when the fan was struck by the fecal matter.
We said that if we were lucky, we’d see the first signs of this in time for the 2010 election. Voila, here we are. Bikini graphs are our friends.
Reports of our political death have been greatly exaggerated.
The thing about Kudlow is not that he said B and therefore we will get R. The thing about Kudlow is that he is just a narrator for whatever happened yesterday. Like a golfcaster. Two birdies for Leonard in the first three rounds, blah blah blah. In the radio biz we used to call this talent Rip And Read. Whatever comes over the wire, he reads it. But he can’t see the final standings any better than anyone else can. He’s just reading off the wire right now. No big deal. And the wire is saying what we said it would say, right about on time. Which, if this plays out the way we thought it would, means that Obama and his elves have had this all along. Just like we sort of thought.
And all the churn and agita in between? Fodder for cable crapvision, and the blogs. And BOB.
The Dangerman
@Kirk Spencer:
Don’t feel bad; I’m at 3 years and 3 months now.
Now, I’m a bit of an odd situation; many years of Aerospace experience that translate not at all to the real world, followed by graduate work (MBA and MS Engineering)…
…and the decision to join the Dot Com revolution, only having it go bust after I hit 40; going into a third field in one’s 40’s sucks bigguns.
JGabriel
John Cole:
I’m not a fan of Kudlow, but he’s not consistently wrong. While I think a double-dip recession is possible due to unemployment and a second round of defaults in the real estate market, especially in commercial real estate, I’m cautiously optimistic, at least until Bill Kristol announces that the recession is over.
If that happens, then we really are screwed.
.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
Today’s wingnut zen.
Praying for The God Channel.
zerorest
Capitalist? What happened to the bailout?
Yutsano
@The Dangerman: Just out of curiosity, how well do you think your experience and education would translate over to anything related to nuclear energy? My father is a higher-up for a major nuclear fuel management firm and he is ALWAYS hurting for good engineers.
jeff
I bought securities when they were shouting about the end of America. I’m very happy with my decision.
Violet
Jim Cramer was on the Today Show this morning, hopped up on happy, going on and on about how great the economy is and how the recession is over. “The people who say whether the recession is over are academics. They’re not out here in the real world where we can see what’s really going on. Of course the recession is over!” Or words to that effect.
Made me pretty nervous about what lies ahead. He’s not known for his accuracy.
jonas
Hey, we’re only 25,000 points away from where Kudlow predicted we’d be 10 years ago!!
So in other words, yeah, we’re pretty much boned.
RareSanity
I’m just waiting on what the narrative will be that Republicans are somehow responsible for any positive economic news…
Should be interesting because other than “Bush Tax Cuts”, I can’t think of any. Even that one is unlikely, not even the teabaggers would want to re-hitch their wagon to a Bush narrative.
Bob5540
Have Jim Cramer confirmed the buy? Wait for that confirmation before selling…
robertdsc
@YellowJournalism:
The Tunchington Post? The Daily Tunchinator? Tunch-Dispatch? Tunch Points Memo? The Tunchian Monthly?
Tunch Street Journal? Press-Tunchian? Christian Tunch Monitor?
If we go the pay ourselves route, that makes us into a Hamsherian PAC situation. LOL!
Brian J
@jonas:
If you are referring to Dow 36,000, the authors were Kevin Hassett and James Glassman, not Larry Kudlow.
MikeJ
@robertdsc: The Tunch Picayune.
gronald
Kudlow must envy the accuracy of the broken clock.
slag
@General Egali Tarian Stuck: Yeah. That’s just what Christian churches need. More influence in our society.
Don’t they already have some god channels? I know for sure they have them on the radio, but I seem to recall they used to have them on the teevee as well.
tenkindsofgrumpy
@robertdsc: Make your own g*d d*mn job.
The Dangerman
@Yutsano:
Interesting question; my home is quite close to the Diablo Canyon plant (Avila Beach, CA) and do some cool volunteer work with some of the PG&E staff there. I’ve applied there, and networked through them, without any luck. My skills are more on the business side than the engineering side; my specialty is logistics and “getting stuff done”. Not sure how my technical skills would translate to the nuclear field. My specialty in aerospace was advanced composite materials, which are just now beginning to find their way into the commercial side of aerospace in a significant way (Boeing Dreamliner, for example, but I have no desire to go back to Aerospace where the next lost contract means hitting the bricks again). Also, advanced composites have high usage in sports (no real jobs there) and some of the exotic autos being produced (for example, Tesla and Aptera, which is an amazing vehicle, but Aptera is crashing and burning last time I checked; it feels like a Dot Com company from an outside view … and Tesla has issues, too). That was a long way of saying I’m not sure how my engineering talents would match up with your Father’s needs.
Thanks for the inquiry, though!
TenguPhule
Keep in mind this is the same deadbeat who advised everyone stupid enough to believe him 1)to buy heavy right before the the crash and keep buying well into the descent and then 2)had a public sell sell sell everything panic 2 months before the market shot back up again. Cramer will fuck idiots who believe him coming and going.
petorado
Well that’s a sure sign Larry’s losing the faith. Me thinks he either needs to clap louder for conservatism or get back on the kool-aid. Bush Pioneer buyer’s remorse must really be a bitch.
TenguPhule
At that point the dead will be piled 5 feet high in the street and zombies will roam the shopping mall wasteland.
Yutsano
@The Dangerman: My personal opinion: networking happens when you least expect it. Case in point: I went to a wedding in Arizona last weekend (smashing time but that’s for an open thread) and one of the bridesmaids happens to be a hotel executive in the Seattle area. This also happens to be my brother’s field. The other interesting part is her husband happens to be a nuke tech in the Navy. So I plan on keeping in contact with her even if she and I just stay friends (which I think we will, she’s a riot and a half) and if we can help each other out and/or our loved ones then so be it.
JGabriel
@Violet:
Oof. Okay, I was wrong: it’s time to worry.
Damn, that was quick.
.
J. Michael Neal
@The Dangerman:
Four years, seven months. At 41, trying to break into a mostly new field, I’m starting to worry that I’ll never be employed again.
Ruckus
@The Dangerman:
60 here and on my third career. Fourth if you count what I wanted to be when I was 7. Never made it into that one though. And if this recession continues at this pace will probably have to figure out another move. In the building I lease for my biz I am the only tenant. That’s 75% empty. And most of the buildings around here have openings. I got one rent reduction (not as much as I asked for) and the other 3 units are listed for almost 10% less than I pay now. No takers. One of my neighbors stated the other day that when we recover it will take her 2 years to get back to level. If she survives. And I agree with that. Almost everyone I know in biz is like me, having scraped through the bottom of the barrel.
I had hoped to hire at least a couple of people over 2 years ago but there’s no way I can do that. Not until we are well on the road to recovery. So I’m doing my part of not helping the employment situation. And I see no way to change that except riding it out and hoping to see the other side.
J. Michael Neal
@JGabriel: I’ve probably described this before, but that never stops me from repeating . . .
Back when I worked on a trading floor, we had CNBC on all day. Not because we were blown away by the analysis, but because we needed breaking news as fast as we could possibly get it. For a while, about an hour after the closing bell, i.e. about an hour before I had everything wrapped up and could escape, Kudlow and Cramer had a show together. I’m surprised the stupid didn’t reach critical mass and blow up New York.
Then again, maybe it did.
jonas
@Brian J: Aw, dang. You’re right. Momentarily got my right wing financial cranks confused.
The Dangerman
@J. Michael Neal:
I hear ya, bigtime. I’m 49 and should be thinking about retirement….
….sadly, I’ll never retire, but there is another part of the story that is my “own doing”; after many years dealing with LA, Bay Area, and Seattle traffic (surprisingly, the worst may have been Seattle), my last dot com job was in San Luis Obispo. Read: God’s Country, just no jobs…
…and having to return to the “big city” just turns my stomach into knots. So, in a weird way, I’m quasi-retired now, just not able to stay that way for much longer.
Just out of curiosity, what mostly new field are you trying to get into?
The Dangerman
@Ruckus:
There are so many places in my area that are empty; now, again, special situation, the rents in San Luis Obispo are nothing short of fucking atrocious (and not getting any better with the high costs of earthquake retrofitting).
I figure I’ll have to go the entrepreneurship route someday, but haven’t figured out a viable business that I can create on little more than a shoestring (and I’m not talking quality shoestrings here; I may be able to afford some cheap twine) and be able to survive the startup.
It’s been an amazing couple of years (read: fuck George W. Bush).
gregor
The jobs are most likely not coming back.
The missing ones have all gone to India and China.
Here in San Diego, the birthplace of the biotech industry, the Ph. D.s who use to make around $200K have been unemployed for years. All the chemistry and even the biology is being done in India.
The software industry has all been exported. Even in the defense industry much of the work is being done in Hyderabad and Bangalore.
There will come a time in the very near future when only the non-exportable jobs will be available here.
Massage technicians and whores and such.
ExtremismInTheDefenseOfLiberty
@gregor:
Don’t forget Project Managers.
J. Michael Neal
@The Dangerman:
Accounting. I’m going to have a freshly minted Master’s in it in three weeks.
Arclite
Of course we’re going to have a double dip recession. As soon as the economies of the world pick up, so will the demand for oil, which will spike oil prices, and push us back down into recession again.
toujoursdan
@Arclite:
Bingo. Oil is already around $80-90/bl. 10 years ago $30 was considered high.
I just hope the next recession doesn’t happen until after November.
Xenos
@toujoursdan: I don’t see how to avoid a double dip, or second recession, given that few of the structural problems with the economy have been dealt with.
Kirk Spencer
@The Dangerman: heh. I do buggy whips.
No, not really. I’m a librarian. Ask and I will find an answer. Problem is… problem is two fold. First and foremost is that the majority of librarian positions are tax funded. In a recession one of the first places that gets cut for that funding is libraries. They’re also subject to all the hiring freezes and rarely get exceptions. There are a lot of us out here looking for the few jobs available that have to get filled.
The second problem for librarians is that people don’t need as many of us any more. 3/4 or so of our reference work can be done with google. Catalogers were already a dying breed thanks to OCLC. Collection development is the part that least needed a professional librarian in the first place. Thus what you’re ending up with is a few professionals managing a lot of paraprofessionals and clerks.
So I, too, am looking at a third career. Army, Library, …
EconWatcher
Greenspan also recently said there would be no double-dip –so you can bank on total collapse.
OwnedByTwoCats
@The Dangerman: The answer to that question is always “Honey, that fur makes your butt look fantastic!”
Linda Featheringill
@J. Michael Neal: Math jokes and politics! [Hehe – actually quite clever. :-)]
Linda Featheringill
@YellowJournalism:
Yeah! Covering whatever topics you want. And maybe a few you don’t want. With a little advertising. Cool.
Linda Featheringill
@Kirk Spencer: Encouraging words. Maybe my daughter can find a job.
Tiparillo
Well even a blind pig finds an acorn or some such.
Remembering back Kudlow was one of the fools arguing about Mr. Market’s negative reaction to Obama winning the nomination (can’t recall if he carried it through to the election). Is he still appling this gauge to the Obama Presidency? To health insurance reform?
Tiparillo
My understanding is that since a lot of the stimulus was back loaded, the spending is coming on line and will last through the election. In theory it should help, but we’ll see.
From talking to friends it seems that most are optimistic and feeling like things are picking up. Yes its anecdotal, but better than the alternative.
manny
One feature of the economy as we move through 2010 seems to be that Britain’s recovery will easily outstrip that in the eurozone. This is partly due to the advantage of having a competitive pound. But it is also because there was always more to the British economy than the 8% of gross domestic product contributed by financial services. The flexibility that stood Britain in good stead before the crisis will still be an advantage as the economy moves out of it