From Mort Zuckerman:
About 40% of U.S. workers believe the recession will continue for another full year, and their pessimism is justified. As paychecks shrink and disappear, consumers are more hesitant to spend and won’t lead the economy out of the doldrums quickly enough.
It may have made him unpopular in parts of the Obama administration, but Vice President Joe Biden was right when he said a week ago that the administration misread how bad the economy was and how effective the stimulus would be. It was supposed to be about jobs but it wasn’t. The Recovery Act was a single piece of legislation but it included thousands of funding schemes for tens of thousands of projects, and those programs are stuck in the bureaucracy as the government releases the funds with typical inefficiency.
The whole thing is worth a read. When Mort Zuckerman and Paul Krugman are aligned in thought, something is going on.
As a side note, I’m really not sure what to make of all the bizarre attacks on Biden. Of course everyone misread the economy- it was far worse than most expected or most wanted to admit publicly. Why does Biden keep getting pegged for “gaffes” when all he is doing is telling the truth?
jibeaux
Okay, my husband thinks the overarcing problem with the economy is that when we had this “good” economy previously, a huge chunk of it was fueled by the financial sector & housing bubbles, i.e. money that did not really exist. And so we are now trying to replace our fantasy economy with a real economy that actually, you know, produces goods and services, and that this is going to be difficult.
Is this a gross oversimplification or are you all just going “duuuuhhhh” right now…?
gypsy howell
For the Village Class, Isn’t the definition of “gaffe” simply “telling the truth by accident?”
jibeaux
O/T, the site is pitching Thai women now? In addition to the Christian Filipinas?
I really don’t understand marketing.
linda
Why does Biden keep getting pegged for “gaffes” when all he is doing is telling the truth?
because that’s the accepted village smear/shorthand that works to mock and make silly whatever biden may have to say. like margaret carlson said about bush/gore: bush’s lies were easy to dispel; but making fun of gore was much more satisfying.
Frank
Because the villagers see politics as a game, not as a consideration of policy or the polity.
They are more interested in guessing about who’s bluffing on ten-high-no-pair and who’s drawing to an open straight than they are in what’s right or wrong.
Hence, a remark they consider ill-timed as far as the game is concerned is derided, however true it may be.
For them, there is no truth. Only the game.
Matt
The best was from McCain, who made a snide remark about “misreading the economy” during some hearing I was watching on C-Span the other day. Pretty rich coming from Johnny Fundamentals. Zero self awareness.
4jkb4ia
OT: Via TalkLeft”, Whitehouse superb even in the course of blowhard statements.
PeakVT
Zuckerman may be right on the general idea, but down at the bottom he says “It is critical that the Obama administration not play politics with the issue.” Which is horsesh*t because it was the Republicans who voted en-masse against the first stimulus AFTER Obama pre-compromised with them. There are similar bits scattered throughout the piece. Still, it is probably about as sane as a WSJ editorial can be.
4jkb4ia
OT: Via TalkLeft, Sheldon Whitehouse superb even in the course of blowhard statements.
wag
…because telling the truth is a gaffe. Pure and simple.
4jkb4ia
OT: Via TalkLeft, Sheldon Whitehouse superb even in the course of blowhard statements.
joe from Lowell
Hold on a second: the economy isn’t going to recover quickly, but rather, slowly over a long period of time…
and the ARRA isn’t creating all of its jobs up front, but rather, slowly over a long period of time…
and that’s a bad thing?
lotus
Cheer up, Goldman made $3.44 billion last quarter. Feel better?
NonyNony
It all makes sense when you realize that our Washington journalists and pundits have the basic maturity and intellectual growth of a bunch of cliquish High School students. Joe has a rep for making gaffes, so the “cool kids” mock him at every opportunity for it.
Happened with Gore too – he was the “class nerd” and so the “cool kids” loved to give him virtual wedgies and swirlies in their daily columns. And Clinton – the likable kid from the wrong side of town that the “cool kids” just couldn’t stand because he wasn’t “their kind of kid”. Obama’s just lucky that he projects cool in a way that none of the “cool kids” can manage. Otherwise the “cool kids” would have written him off as a nerdy “Steve Erkel” type long ago.
4jkb4ia
Link doesn’t want to do anything, but story should be on front page.
edmund dantes
@jibeaux: Nope jibeaux. It’s something I’ve believed for a long time too. The last 10-15 years of growth really appear to have been built upon easy credit and ever increasing house prices.
Punchy
Problem with the economy? Recession? WTF are you talking about?
/man with job
Johnny B. Guud
Hold on a second. From a political standpoint, comments like Biden’s are a disaster. The President and the Democrats rushed a nearly $800 billion stimulus package through the Congress—all I remember was “hurry up, it’s a crisis, we can’t wait, etc. etc.”
The implication being that this was a new administration, no more business as usual, bailing out Wall Street, time to bail out Main Street, the President knew how to fix it (a massive injection of government spending), yada yada.
Then along the way, the President is making remarks to the effect of “well, we’ve come away from the precipice”, and the whole green shoots thing. So, the stock market is no longer dropping 300 points at a clip, spring and summer is here, slow news cycles, and everyone just feels more stable.
Then out comes Joe Biden saying they screwed up, that the economy was worse than they thought. After $800 billion. Even Sen. Schumer was on the teevee the other day saying that the stimulus “prevented a depression, now let’s see if it creates jobs” (paraphrasing).
I’ll be the first to acknowledge that it’s way to early to determine if and when the stimulus has worked. Less than 15% of it has been spent so far, which is nowhere close to being effective.
Politically, it’s extremely risky for Obama. Statements like Biden’s and Schumer’s imply that the stimulus has been spent, but have not produced the desired effects, as advertised. They should get a coherent message out there, that the stimulus hasn’t been fully disbursed yet.
And remember, all but
threetwo Republicans voted for the stimulus, so Obama and the Democrats (and Charlie Crist) own it./ramble
DonBoy
In addition to “a gaffe is when a politician accidentally tells the truth” (Kinsley), notice the political two-step you can get out of it. First you act as if your enemies are intrinsically liars. Then, when they aren’t, they’re not truth-tellers, they’re incompetent liars.
Michael
Sure. Complain up front that attempts to correct the issue are librulsocialism, and hope for some measure of precompromise before voting no. Then, when things don’t correct instantly, complain that the changes didn’t work “as promised” despite the fact that all were told up front that it would take time.
Had the instant sort of things been attempted, there would have been a different opposition strategy, something about lazy people on the government tit, poorly thought out projects, etc.
When you’re a Big “C” Conservative hammer, everything is drywall. This is what happens when people who are all opposition, all the time end their catastrophe of governance. Doomed to fail, all they do is yell louder when they’re out, proclaiming that what was actually needed in government was their purest vision.
That purest vision, of course, is rather like the smelly stuff you have to work out of your dog’s glands when you bathe him.
Johnny B. Guud
@joe from Lowell: Excellent point. Unfortunately, most politicians have an attention span that stretches no further than the next midterm election. Democrats are no exception.
Napoleon
@jibeaux:
He is absolutely correct. Read Kevin Phillips “Bad Money”.
opium4themasses
Telling the unvarnished truth has always been a gaffe. Just look at the blowhards bloviate about “blow job”.
Then again, isn’t this the job of VP? To take heat off the President by saying the things he can’t really say.
Hatchet man/stool pigeon amalgam. Hatchet pigeon?
arguingwithsignposts
No, everyone did NOT misread the economy. Roubini, Stiglitz, even Krugman predicted it would get worse than what the administration was predicting. 8 percent unemployment was a rosy scenario by most economic bloggers I’ve read. Of course, when you’re getting paid hundreds of thousands and living in the Village bubble, it’s easy to underestimate when everyone is a statistic.
As a pauper, even I knew the economy was going to get worse than the admin. (and the GS alumni suits) predicted.
see: whistling past the graveyard, also.
Johnny B. Guud
I thought the Veeps job was to create and implement clandestine and illegal torture and enemy assasination programs?
Walker
The phrase you are looking for is FIRE (Financial, Insurance, Real Estate) economy.
Napoleon
From John’s outtake it sounds like Mort Z.’s piece is a hit peice, and to the extent he agrees with Krugman it is simply on the economy being worse then they thought.
I personally think we will not see job losses abate until at the earliest the first quarter of ’10.
opium4themasses
@Walker: Are you saying what we’re having now is a FIRE sale?
@Johnny B. Guud: Maybe that’s part of it. I mean, no one compared W to Darth Vader.
peach flavored shampoo
Mort Zuck is a hard neocon-ish righty, so you’re dead on. His US News & World Report is an unabashed righty rag. So yeah, Mort’s goal here is to trash Obama, not to agree with a Nobel winner.
Scruffy McSnufflepuss
I’m from Delaware. Joe Biden is a personal hero of mine. He saved my friend Trevor from getting backdoor-drafted into a third tour in Iraq after Trevor had already left the Army and had doctors diagnosing him with hearing loss, depression, and PTSD. The military was still going to haul him back in, until he called Biden. Then Biden pulled some strings and kept him out.
After that, I don’t care what Biden says. He pretty much saved my friend’s life, and he’s the only politician I know who’s achieved this so directly.
Hunter Gathers
It seems there is no longer a market for that product at the moment. Check again after George Wallace in a skirt, I mean Our Righteous Benevolent Queen Sarah Palin of the North assumes the throne in 2012. I believe you might see her V.P. , Liz Cheney, revive those programs and have Putin ‘rubbed out’.
SGEW
@Scruffy McSnufflepuss: Even though I kind of disapprove of using personal anecdotes as a reason to support (or not support) certain politicians (see, e.g., B.O.B. and Sen. Franken’s “touchiness”), that’s a great story and a really legitimate reason for you to support Biden. Hell’s bells, I would too if I had had the same experience.
All I’ve got is Charlie Rangel blowing me off in Harlem. I still voted for him, tho’.
anonevent
From the paragraph you copied, Krugman and Zuckerman aren’t exactly aligned. Krugman thought the stimulus was too small. Zuckerman is still pushing that government is the problem.
Montysano (All Hail Marx & Lennon)
@jibeaux:
Not at all. But add in the fact that the bubble was fueled by various types of financial innovation: credit default swaps, opening commodities to the speculation market, allowing banks to leverage at 3x what was conventionally thought to be prudent. Much of this was predicated on the belief that housing prices would never drop. Then, when it became apparent that things were falling apart, BushCo attempted to kick the can down the road. They almost made it, getting all the way to Sept. 08 before TSHTF. History will look at the Bush years as the greatest act of financial malfeasance ever perpetrated.
Comrade javafascist
With the village you have about 3 minutes to define your persona and after that, you will be that person for the rest of your life. John Maverick McCain, Joe “Gaffe-machine” Biden, Al “Bore” Gore, Clenis, etc, etc… They seem completely incapable of incorporating new data into their worldview (which explains why nobody will ever fire Pat Buchanan.)
Laziest bunch of Heathers ever created. Waste of space the lot of them.
Scruffy McSnufflepuss
@SGEW:
There’s also the fact that Biden went to college with my Mom and used to date her roommate. Also, I was in his office with my high school social studies class, and we argued about drug legalization. (He tore me a new asshole, but I was only 16 at the time, so what do you expect?)
He seemed like a nice enough guy when I met him, but those personal anecdotes aren’t reason enough to vote for someone. Hell, Bill Roth seemed nice enough in person, and I hated that son of a bitch. But saving my friend’s life rises above personal likeability.
Napoleon
@Scruffy McSnufflepuss:
A law school classmate of mine had interned in his office (she was from Delaware and I understood that her father is a prominent attorney there) and she thought he was the greatest thing ever.
Dennis-SGMM
Biden’s gaffes consist of telling the truth. Republicans don’t make gaffes because they abandoned the truth, and reality, during the Reagan years.
The notion of an economic recovery is predicated on having something to go back to. There isn’t. Swapping pieces of paper to which you’ve assigned bazillion dollar valuations and selling each other pieces of shit made overseas is not an economy – it’s a mass hallucination.
Robertdsc-iphone
Funny how no one’s lost their job for that, either. Very telling, or so I think so.
Media Maimonides (formerly Browski)
Can anyone explain to me how Krugman can smack down the wingnut congressmen in late June for saying the stimulus isn’t working by noting that the money has barely been distributed, and then make the argument two weeks later that we need more stimulus based upon jobs numbers that do not reflect the stimulus being distributed?
As an economist, I’m stumped.
tavella
Biden’s fondness for occasionally telling the truth is one of the reasons I like him. The Village hates it, of course.
And yes, plenty of people were screaming the stimulus wasn’t big enough, but Obama was still in his “bipartisan” delusion, and therefore gave away the house for the sake of a handful of votes.
Jackie
A few years ago friend of mine got to O’Hare and realized she did not have her ID, Frantically calling for someone to bring it and keep an eye on her 3 year old and babe in arms she was in tears. A nice older man. seeing how upset she was, engaged her daughter in a conversation about her doll etc. in a non creepy way, and stayed with her until she knew everything was ok. She thought he looked familiar but couldn’t place him. As she was thanking him she introduced herself to Senator Biden. No entourage, no press in sight., not a constituent. She is very Republican but he won a few Obama/Biden votes that day. That nice guy facade is no facade. It’s not the only reason to vote for a politician, but with all the elected sociopaths it’s one good reason.
arguingwithsignposts
@Jackie:
I forgive biden a lot because he seems like a genuine enough fellow (hell, he rode the train, for f**ks sake!). he lost a great deal.
I like to think Obama is in the same vein. Folks like Kyl, Sessions and Boehner would not have done the same. They aren’t just idiots. they are heartless bastards with no moral compass. sociopaths, plain and simple.
Scruffy McSnufflepuss
@Napoleon:
Yeah, we Delawareans think very highly of the guy.
I’m not glossing over his flaws. They’re pretty obvious. He gave the commencement speech at my 2004 graduation from Rutgers. He had a truly great 20-minute speech that turned into a truly excruciating 80-minute speech. But it’s part of the parcel. He’s a great guy.
joe from Lowell
Joe Biden seems like the kind of guy who buys a three-decker and lives in one of the units. He really likes the family on the second floor – they’ve been there forever – but he has to remind the college kids in the third unit to keep it down after 11. People get up early for work around here. I can keep and eye on the place, and the rents on the other two units pay the mortgage. Hey, you want to have a beer on the porch?
Jon H
FYI, if you go to recovery.pa.gov, you can see the press releases related to stimulus spending in Pennsylvania. (Presumably there are similar sites for other states.)
One example is a repaving of 6 miles of highway. The contract wasn’t awarded to a construction company until around April 22. The work didn’t begin until June 1.
A lot of projects started work in the June-July timeframe.
The fact is, even job-creating infrastructure spending simply takes a long time to get moving. Some states may be slower than others.
Presumably after a few more months of construction work around the country, inventories of construction-related materials and equipment will start being used up, and orders for new stuff will pick up, leading to an uptick in the industries that manufacture such things. But that won’t be for a while yet.
Napoleon
@Media Maimonides (formerly Browski):
Real simple, the stimulus package was sized based on certain assumptions as to how big the problem was it needed to be fixed. Even though most of it has not gone out yet, if suddenly the problem is much larger it is not much of a stretch to conclude that even if you assume the original package will have the effect that it was assumed to have (and not amazingly twice the effect to make up for the fact that the problem it has to solve is much larger) they you know you have to have a second package to get you to the same net result you were originally seeking.
In layman’s terms it is as if you are on a road crew and are told to go out and patch a dangerous pot hole. You figure since most dangerous pot holes take no more the a yard of material you load up a yard and drive out to the pothole only to find it is going to take 2 yards of material. Sure dumping the yard of material you have in it helps, but you are going to have to go get another yard of material to get the result you were originally seeking.
slag
Some people call this bureaucracy “checks and balances”.
Neo
I think Obama and his economic team thought that this was merely a “crisis of confidence,” meaning the economy would resume as soon as the feeling of “panic” was abated, so targeting the “stimulus” just was that important. As a matter of fact, I think you could have sold that idea up until GM went into bankruptcy. At that point, the banks had been tested and GM and Chrysler were “dealt with” so the feeling of crisis had abated, but it set the stage for the current situation.
Once there was a feeling that the worst of the crisis was over, the Obama agenda was left there, naked for all to see.
As the weeks have progressed, the unease of the underlying future consequences of the current “cap and trade” (somehow called an energy bill) and Obamacare bills started to suck the oxygen out of the normal recovery process. Every new tax proposal has employers holding on even tighter to their wallets, instead of creating new jobs.
The “big lie” was calling it a “Recovery Act” .. it was merely another spending bill, hardly targeted to stimulate the engines of the American economy, but rather the engines of the political agenda.
Obama lied, the recovery died.
itsbenj
Um, I think the attacks on Biden (which I haven’t really seen any of, I’ve seen attacks directed at Obama via Biden and Geithner, et al) are based on the fact that numerous economics experts were telling us, when the stimulus and bailouts were being constructed, that the administration was using obviously rosey, non-reality-based unemployment projections which were beyond any real best case scenario.
and yes, doing so deserves criticism, every time any administration tries to pull such crap. remember, trying to put a happy face on an economic collapse is wingnut territory. ‘the market will fix itself if we all clap louder’ is NOT what we voted for with Obama / Biden. and people are deservedly angry that this seems to be what we’ve gotten, as opposed to what we were promised.
many, many people knew very at the time, in real time, that they were willfully ‘misreading’ the economy. they were sucking up to the idiot republicans, instead of listening to experts or the public.
Napoleon
@Neo:
You are obviously too stupid to realize what a stimulative bill is. The whole point is to spend money to jump start the economy. In a manner of speaking it is irrelevant what you spend it on, Keynes having famously (and presumably tongue in cheek) suggesting paying people money to bury money so that outer people could unbury the money. Stimulus Bill = Spending Bill.
Moron
Morgan
@anonevent, peach flavored shampoo: I’m not sure it’s quite as nefarious as that. He ends by saying that a second stimulus will be needed and that it should be devoted to serious infrastructure investment rather than congressional pet projects. Hardly seems all that different from Krugman or like a hit job on Obama from the right.
kay
Opposition to the stimulus is purely ideological. Both Parties wanted stimulus. Republicans wanted it in the form of tax cuts, and Democrats wanted it in the form of subsidy for various projects.
They both won. But, wait! The tax cuts have gone out. 1/3 of the whole package was tax cuts. The project-related spending takes longer.
I’d ask the Republicans why their tax-cut stimulus was such a big fail. The numbers are in on their single idea, and they aren’t good. The jury’s still out on the Dem part of the stimulus.
D-Chance.
Why does Biden keep getting pegged for “gaffes” when all he is doing is telling the truth?
Because people DON’T WANT the truth. They want hopey-changey and magical unity ponies.
KRK
Gotta agree with those who say there’s only the flimsiest meeting of the minds here between Zuckerman and Krugman. Z is just beating the “government can’t do anything right (domestically)” drum with a McCain-like refrain that while there’s theoretically “serious” spending that could be done, any specific project actually ever funded is a frivolous “pet project”.
vanham
CAPITALISME “KILLED” THE CONSUMER…..consequence capitalisme will disappear except when capitalists give money (for free) back to the people (the consumers)…
mai naem
I like Joe Biden. My sis doesn’t follow politics like I do but when he got the Veep nod, she immediately liked him without really knowing anything about him. He just comes across as a nice guy. When they passed the stimulus bill, I remembered them stating that the money wasn’t really going to kick in until Sept. that’s what I’m waiting for. I don’t like Zuckerman. He’s a neocon but he’s not a Kristol level neocon.
hamletta
Joe Biden is a jewel, a mensch.
My mom supported Hillary in the primaries, and continued after the mathematical tipping point. I was worried she’d go PUMA on me.
When Obama picked Biden as his running mate, it was all over. She considers him family she hasn’t met yet. Working-class Irish Catholic brainy train-ridin’ Joe Biden could be one of my uncles. We just quit the Pope a coupla generations back.