According to everything I am seeing in the newspapers, on Cable news, and the updates at Sullivan, tomorrow seems like it will be a really pivotal day in Iran. The last posts at Sullivan have a foreboding tone.
Heating Up
This post is in: Foreign Affairs
JenJen
Good thing Congress passed that resolution today. Hope Mike Pence, et al, have a nice weekend, knowing they’ve done all they can.
I really do wish the best to the Iranian people, and hope they stay safe. So far, the most amazing thing about the last week is how relatively peaceful the demonstrations have been.
Death By Mosquito Truck
Isn’t camouflage a shade of green?
Comrade Stuck
Kinda makes our problems seem small.
Death By Mosquito Truck
@Comrade Stuck:
Are you serious?
Comrade Stuck
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
Absolutely. Jerry Falwell isn’t telling us to shut up or the Army will kill you. Or James Dobson, or anyone else.
ericvsthem
Good analysis on the difficult position Mousavi is now in.
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/19/iran_analyst_is_mousavi_willing_to_risk_slaughter_in_the_streets
Death By Mosquito Truck
@Comrade Stuck: Dude, they’re contesting a practically meaningless election. When it’s all over they’ll still be an oppresive Islamic regime.
Contrast that with the clusterfuck in which America finds herself in 2009, two countries occupied, a financial meltdown, skyrocketing debt, etc. etc. etc that started with a stolen election in 2000 -an election that actually meant something and the veracity of which most folks, including Sullivan, could have cared less about.
This Iran shit is so much fapfapfap.
Comrade Stuck
As much as I dislike linking Brooks, his article today has some good observations in it on whether it’s time, or not, for these type of confrontations to work.
They only work, I think, when the security forces are ready to side with their fellow citizens. Otherwise, bloodbaths tend to occur. This may be what Mousavi is considering today.
Comrade Stuck
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
It doesn’t matter what it’s about at this stage. It’s just about how many people may die. That is the narrow point I’m talking about. Though I basically agree with your points on the election.
Ash
I just don’t see how this could ever turn out well. I’ve never really understood how coups of this nature worked anyway, though. There’s really nothing they can do short of turning the entire military against the Ayatollah, right?
JK
I wish the Iranian demonstrators well, but it’s time for Republican blowhards like John McCain to shut the fuck up about events unfolding in Iran and the tone of Obama’s statements.
Who knows what kind of government Iran would have today if the CIA hadn’t overthrown Mohammed Mosadegh? Of course obnoxious pricks like John McCain can’t be bothered to reflect upon the negative consequences of US meddling in the affairs of other nations.
Khameni and Ahmadinejad are scumbags and I’d love to see them spend the rest of their lives in prison getting gang raped every day, but Mousavi isn’t a magical fucking savior who wants to replace the Koran with the Federalist Papers.
matoko_chan
“Absolutely. Jerry Falwell isn’t telling us to shut up or the Army will kill you. Or James Dobson, or anyone else.”
But they absolutely would if they could. Barring that the stupids and the cryptoneandertals are doing their level best to sandbag the greens and keep Nejad and Khameini in power.
And wouldn’t that have to be the cryogenically preserved head of Jerry Falwell? I sure hope gehenna was a revelation for him.
;)
Maus
The problem here is that Iran’s also been importing foreign security forces to maintain order. If they don’t speak your language, they’re not going to feel the same, and you’re not going to be able to explain yourself either.
John Cole
@JK: Enough with the prison rape jokes, please.
On a serious note, I honestly don’t know what we could do. Military action will achieve nothing, and as Larison noted yesterday, the rest of our options are limited because the same people screaming today that we “do something” pursued a policy of non-engagement for decades:
Exactly.
El Cid
Look, now is the time that people reveal whether they’re in this for the real and difficult work of solidarity with people in another nation whose destiny they cannot control, or if they’re momentarily excited by what appears to be an exciting turn of events.
Comrade Stuck
@Maus:
Maybe the Mullah’s realize Brook’s point and have taken countermeasures.
matoko_chan
And….the thing that may save the greens from Khameini’s planned Basiji bloodbath, may be the real islamic faith of the army and the police.
That and non-violence.
The Other Steve
Whatever happens, Iran is changed.
joe from Lowell
Remember when Poppy Bush encouraged the Iraqi Shiites to stage an uprising in 1992?
Another good reason for Obama to be circumspect with his remarks.
Death By Mosquito Truck
I watched Swing Vote tonight and dumber are for it.
joe from Lowell
I’m sorry to hear that, Yoda.
Bad Horse's Filly
I believe we are going to wake up tomorrow or Sunday to awful news.
I consider myself a brave person, tested by various events. But when I watch people like this, people who are willing to put their lives on the line, risk beatings, imprisonment, death, to advance an important cause and I wonder: Could I? Would I?
Brave men and women who stood up for civil rights, for the right to vote, stood up against slavery, stood up to tanks and dictators…would I have their strength if I were faced with the insurmountable odds?
mai naem
Uhm, like I was waiting for a lily update. All this Iran stuff is too much for my beautiful mind.
Shinobi
Some of the personal notes posted over at the huffpo live blog are pretty serious. As a friend of mine would say, This is getting pretty real.
I think what the protesters are doing is important, I know that in the end their form of government may not change, but they are reminding their government that you can only govern the willing.
I can only hope for the best possible outcome for the Iranian people, whatever that may be.
Ned R.
I am hoping tomorrow that a terrible beauty is *not* born — I’d prefer something happier.
Laura W
So before I go to sleep I think this is the only thread I’ve not soiled with a music link tonight. Unintentionally. Shit happens sometimes.
But this is topical and I was just talking about it last night. Sting was all set to do a live concert at his Italian villa on 9/11/01 when word came in about the attacks. Big debate about whether to go on with the show or not. Here’s the band’s decision, and the opening number.
Fragile.
Punchy
Iran…….yawn.
Ryan Cunningham
@JK:
This.
Brick Oven Bill
“Force Shites upon reason’s back.”
-Benjamin Franklin
Persia fell to Islam in 644. If the Iranians are truly ready for the tree of liberty, they can water it. Until then, it is none of our business.
Rey
@ Laura W
Wow– thanks for that link. Maybe those 3000 souls from 9/11/01 will haunt the Supreme leaders in Iran to not do anything to crazy to those protesters.
Right now, this world is indeed fragile…
Ryan Cunningham
@Punchy:
Trolling… yawn.
JasonF
Holy cow — Meghan McCain had a world-class meltdown on Bill Maher tonight. If you have access to HBO, make time to watcch it.
PeopleAreNoDamnGood
There is nothing to be done. For one thing, nobody but the Iranian officials themselves know what really transpired in the election over there. No foreign leader can suggest that one side or another is favored, in the face of a disputed election where no facts are at hand about the legitimacy of that election, unless he is a damned fool.
In the face of that, any unrest that ensues is Iran’s business.
That’s it.
The people in our congress don’t give a rat’s ass about Iran, they are posturing for votes for themselves. There is not one of them who could draw a scenario that includes American action and produces a good outcome. And nobody in the world knows that better than the Iranian people.
Anton Sirius
@ericvsthem:
Not in the least — it’s rather facile, really. The protesters aren’t “his” any longer, if they ever really were.
Seeing what’s happening in Iran as nothing more than an electoral squabble between Ahmadi and Mousavi completely misses the boat.
Anton Sirius
@Maus:
That’s been debunked, hasn’t it? The ‘hezbollah’ referred to initially is not the Hezbollah we’re used to hearing about.
Matthew Hooper
…and it’s dawn in Tehran.
It’s a pathetically small thing to do, but it’s been suggested that if you have a Twitter account, you set your location to Tehran and our time zone to +3.30 GMT. The theory is that this’ll give more spam for the Revolutionary Guards to filter through looking for hard data. Seems a touch dubious to me, but it costs you – what 30 seconds of your time? And it’s marginally more productive than painting your blog green. So, give it a try. After all, it costs you nothing, and if it helps, it helps.
PeopleAreNoDamnGood
@Matthew Hooper:
So, we help to ratchet up the tension. What happens when people are getting killed? Is that part of the cute twitter plan?
Just asking.
dww44
Yep, for all the craziness that Ron Paul gets painted with, when it comes to foreign policy, he doesn’t mind standing alone and standing for sanity and reason. His was the lone No vote on the Iran vote in the House today. I am doubly dismayed because the vote was instigated by Republicans, but every single, bar none, Democrat voted FOR it. I plan on letting my Democratic congressman know about it. Yet another example of NO BACKBONE whatsoever. An excerpt from his statements about his vote today.
Jen R
It seems to me that there’s one more thing we can do, besides providing proxies and wearing green and all that jazz:
Write our Congressfolk, the White House, and media outlets. Remind them that of all the things the protesters in Iran have been asking for this week, not one has asked for U.S. military intervention of any kind.
I profoundly hope this doesn’t end in fire, but in case it does, we have to start getting that message out *before* it happens.
Cain
I hope the protesters don’t do anything. Seriously, going out into the streets is retarded. It will accomplish nothing. What I would propose is a house sit in. Fuck those guys, cripple the economy and stay in your homes and don’t come out.. Pray, meet iwth your neighbors, but don’t go to work.
You’re not breaking any laws, and no work gets done. Simple. Hit it where they hurt…you can’t drag people out and make them work. It’s a lot better than going out their and meeting your death. These people will fuck you up.
cain
Doug H.
@dww44: Not to ruin your attempt to jump-start a circular firing squad, but if even Dennis “Department of Peace” Kucinich voted for it I think that says something.
PeakVT
I wish the Iranians the best, but we (the country, our politicians, and to a lesser extent the rest of us) need to butt out and STFU – not just because we can’t do anything about the situation, or because we’ve got a track record of fucking things up in the region, or because it’s none of our damn business in the first place, but mainly because we have enough shit to fix already.
How’s that war in Pakghanistaq going, anyway?
om3n
@The Other Steve:
Whatever happens, Iran is changed.
not just iran, other countries have changed, i think, from seeing their brave example. might not be immediately apparent, but seems undeniable that seeds of influence have been sown.
Matthew Hooper
@PNDG:
Oh, yeah. That makes sense. the Revolutionary Guard was all set to play nice, but when they had to work a bit harder at finding guys to drag into the alleys and shoot when doing an Internet search, hoo boy, the gloves came off.
I don’t pretend it’ll do a lot, but it’s even sillier to pretend that it’ll do enough to drive someone to violence. I mean, come on. It’s going to slow down some people’s Internet connections. It’s a bleeping revolution, not something really serious like WoW or something.
Sheesh. Wadda maroon.
Brachiator
@John Cole:
Didn’t someone — I forget precisely who — post something recently about American unions providing support to Poland’s Solidarity movement? This could not have been done without at least the acquiescence of the US government.
What if the Soviet Union had sent messages through diplomatic channels that even this unofficial assistance would invite a more severe crackdown?
The US assist of Twitter was a new and innovative way of providing support to the Iranian protesters. Why are people still pretending that the only options are the neo-con fantasy of invasion or absolute non-intervention?
The Iranian protests may end badly. These things often do. But if the Iranian protesters want to go down swinging, they certainly have a right to do so. And with whatever assistance outsiders can provide.
Exeunt all except HAMLET
How all occasions do inform against me,
And spur my dull revenge! What is a man,
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? a beast, no more.
Sure, he that made us with such large discourse,
Looking before and after, gave us not
That capability and god-like reason
To fust in us unused. Now, whether it be
Bestial oblivion, or some craven scruple
Of thinking too precisely on the event,
A thought which, quarter’d, hath but one part wisdom
And ever three parts coward, I do not know
Why yet I live to say ‘This thing’s to do;’
Sith I have cause and will and strength and means
To do’t. Examples gross as earth exhort me:
Witness this army of such mass and charge
Led by a delicate and tender prince,
Whose spirit with divine ambition puff’d
Makes mouths at the invisible event,
Exposing what is mortal and unsure
To all that fortune, death and danger dare,
Even for an egg-shell.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
Jon Lee Anderson has a blog post today about the Basiji here:
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/06/jon-lee-anderson-understanding-the-basij.html
Apologies if repeated earlier.
Edit: embedded link not showing up for some reason…
Death By Mosquito Truck
Tell me you mean a twitter revolution.
Ash
That made me spit out my Coke all over my pretty Macbook. Damn you, DAMN YOU TO HELL!
Carry on.
MikeJ
If the Iranian John Adams and Ben Franklin were here asking to borrow the Bonny Dick, I’d consider giving it to them. That’s not the case here though. I simply don’t see that there’s anything we can do for them.
Good luck and god speed, but you guys are on your own.
J. Michael Neal
That’s what this was eight days ago. Not now. You can’t get those kinds of demonstrations, of that size and intensity, over a meaningless election. If that’s what it was before, the demonstrations themselves make it more than that.
As I’ve said before, even if *all* that were to happen is to install Moussavi as president and someone else as Supreme Leader (there’s zero possibility of Khamenei surviving this if the demonstrators win), this changes Iran in fundamental ways. Moussavi’s power base has changed. It’s no longer a clique of the mullahs; it’s now the people he can bring out to the streets. He’s had to promise them too much to be able to go back now, unless *he’s* prepared to call out the tanks to crush them. He’s Gorbachev: a man who wanted only to change the system a bit from within, but who let loose far more than he intended, and wasn’t willing to shoot the people down to stop what was happening.
But I’ll go even farther. Even if all that were implemented were what Moussavi promised on the campaign trail, Iran would be changed in positive ways. It would be much more open, to freedom of expression, to women, and to ethnic minorities. It wouldn’t be insane on foreign policy. All of these things alone are positive. It may not mean much to Americans, or the US government, but it means a hell of a lot to Iranians.
There’s a bigger picture involved, too. Frankly, I think we’d all be better off if the change does happen within the system of the Islamic Republic. First, I don’t think that there’s anything particularly wrong with that structure, given the other alternatives in the region. Sure, I’d never want it here, but public opinion is in a different place in the Middle East. If that’s what happens, we have an officially Islamist state operating based upon popular sovereignty, offering freedom of expression, and other liberties. *That* would send shockwaves through the region. Not the sort that Bush produced in Iraq, but a real development.
As for all of the moaning about encouraging the Iranians to go to their slaughter, give it up. They aren’t being pushed by us. Believe it or not, they are full-fledged moral actors of their own, and are capable of making the decision to risk their lives themselves. If there is a massacre, it isn’t the responsibility of anyone over here, no matter what they’ve posted. The blame goes to the people that conduct the massacre, and the decision to put themselves in a position to be massacred belongs to the people who do that.
I plan to do what I can to show my support for that decision in every way that I can. As I’ve said before, I would never, ever urge someone to put themselves in that position (save for the unlikely scenario where I ever am in a position to take the risk myself). It’s their risk, not mine, and so it would be wrong for me to push them into it. However, if they are brave enough to do so, then I believe that that is the right decision. Systems of oppression will never be overthrown without people who are willing to make that choice. Lots of them. The chances to mobilize enough of them don’t come along very often, so I would like to see the people seize it.
No decision of this sort is ever wasted. If nothing else, courage and decency on the individual level are laudable in and of themselves. Beyond that, they can’t help but have a positive effect on the world. The Prague Spring was crushed brutally, but it left a memory that inspired later. I still think a better example is Poland in 1980, because crushing the Czechoslovaks was done by an outside country. Here, as in Warsaw, it will have to be the their own countryman that commence the slaughter. I don’t believe the rumors of Lebanese being imported; if they had been, there would be evidence from Lebanon, and not just tweets from Tehran. Even if they are there, the *orders* would still have come from Iran’s own leadership, and that will wipe away their legitimacy no matter who does the killing.
No government survives in the long run if they are forced into the level of internal repression that this would take. The protests in Burma last year, or Tiananmen Square, didn’t involve anything like the proportion of the population that has been marching in Tehran, and there was no evidence that unrest ever spread to the outlying regions, as it so clearly has to Tabriz, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The only way the current incarnation of the Islamic Republic survives the next decade is if Moussavi, and the protesters back down.
If that’s the decision they make, there will be no criticism from me. I have no idea if I could make the choice to stand in front of the Basij without flinching, and there would be nothing shameful if I couldn’t. Getting beaten to death is a price no one should ever be forced to pay. I hope they don’t, though. I hope that they have the courage that I might not have. The only way to beat Khamenei is to take him on.
omen
@matoko_chan:
do you think people should wait to act on this?
http://www.iranhumanrights.org/
it’s to petition iranian officals to release political prisoners.
PeopleAreNoDamnGood
@Matthew Hooper:
Yeah, you are sitting there writing predictions of events in Iran, totally making shit up, and I’m the fucking moron.
Blow some more shit out your ass. How does it all turn out? What’s the future, mister know it all?
Where do all the idiots come from around here?
Punchy
Why are we supposed to care so much about a third-world theocracy?
omen
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
Isn’t camouflage a shade of green?
@Punchy:
Iran…….yawn.
let me guess: y’all are part of the “twitter is a zionist plot!” brigade.
eyeball
Yup, joe from lowell has it pretty well summed up. those kurds and shi’a the USA urged to take up pitchforks in ’91 pretty much ended up dead or in refugee camps. same essential result for Hungary in 1956. And the Philippines analogy is junk since Marcos was a USA client dictator. The jihadists on the repub right just need to caterwaul. they really are a bunch of dumb futhermuckers. Wake me when Tehran wins the 2024 Olympics.
MikeJ
Not wishing to speak for others, but I’d guess they’re in the “there’s nothing we can do to help and the last time the warbloggers got their panties this knotted we invaded a country that was no threat to us and killed a coupla hundred thousand people” brigade.
Revolution is not a game and too many of the cheerleaders outside of Iran don’t seem to understand what’s involved.
Joel
I fear this won’t work. The Burmese were in this position but one year ago.
matoko_chan
I DM’d a proxy IP.
Here’s how you can do that.
Here is a thing you don’t seem to understand, Dr. Cole.
Iran is a successful theocracy. The people overthrew the tyrant Shah. And even if the election is rerolled and Mousavi becomes president, and the Assembly of Experts boots Khameini and installs Sayeed Montazeri, Iran will still be a theocracy.
If the Greens succeed tomorrow, it will be because of their faith in al-Islam, because of their faith in justice. The Prophet said a country can survive without god, but it cannot survive without justice.
Democracy is not a panacea to cure the world’s ills…in fact…..it is the corruption of a republic, is it not?
The Greens will succeed eventually….and it will be because of Islam, not in spite of it.
Alfter all, Dr. Cole….there are more things under heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Ya haqq!
Death By Mosquito Truck
What revolution?
matoko_chan
Count how many times Obama says justice.
It is a coded message for dar al Islam.
J. Michael Neal
@matoko_chan: That didn’t really provide enough instructions to create a proxy server. Keep in mind that I barely know what a proxy server is. If that means that the answer is that I shouldn’t mess with things, let me know. Otherwise, I need pretty much a complete set of instructions from square one.
Ash
You’re smoking the good stuff tonight, matoko_chan
MikeJ
All of them except for Dance, Dance Revolution.
omen
@MikeJ:
you are making comparisions that are not applicable. how can you compare this with iraq?
i’m not talking about rightwing warmongers or what they have to say. nobody here is endorsing invasion. i’m talking about bloggers on the left who think this whole thing was cooked up to zionists. they think this whole exercise was invented and has been manipulated by neocon controlled media intent on destabilizing iran for the sake of israel and american empire. they refuse to believe the movement in iran was organic and it’s iranians themselves who are feed up with 30 years of being oppressed.
read
http://xymphora.blogspot.com/
or
http://www.moonofalabama.org/
to get a taste of the madness.
put aside the hostility against jews for a moment in this type of argument, but to think that iranians are so simple minded that they cannot decide for themselves what’s in their best interest and they are so prone to being manipulated – is so insulting to iranians that it’s unbelievable. it’s bigotry on top of bigotry.
MNPundit
@Bad Horse’s Filly: Standing up for something when the only response is pure apathy is also nothing to disparage. You may be alive, but you get to watch everything around you die because no one cared but you.
Death By Mosquito Truck
@omen:
You need to go sober up and then do some hard thinking about your future. Do you really wanna go thru life this fucking stupid?
L. Ron Obama
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.
omen
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
ooooh, you told me.
that counts as one insult while lacking a denial of the charge.
you read the blogs i cited and the commonality is that they think everybody who doesn’t agree with them is stupid. the level of narcissism is stunning.
MikeJ
If you want to convince me that someone is wrong on the internet you’ll need to do more than point at entire sites that I don’t read or care about, and then tell me why I should give a shit about paranoid a fantasy, theirs or yours.
Death By Mosquito Truck
@omen: What the hell does that have to do with me and Punchy, you maroon?
omen
@MikeJ:
i’m not going to spoon feed you. if you’re not interested, don’t respond to my posts.
omen
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
so all you do is name call and ridicule without backing it up with your own counter argument? okay, i see how you are.
MikeJ
You’re the one that started ranting about zionist plots and teh evul left. Keep your fuckin spoon away from me, pervert.
Death By Mosquito Truck
@omen:
…
omen
@MikeJ:
don’t make it sound like i endorse the idea of zionist plots. i’m expression my incredulity with the delusion of people who think the iranian uprising as nothing but a manufactured media sham.
omen
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
i thought i put a question mark at the end of that.
i did mean it in the form of a question. didn’t get a denial.
Death By Mosquito Truck
@omen: You can suck my dick, troll.
asiangrrlMN
Um, ok, so I’m getting caught in the crossfire (kinda like Hoekstra and the GOP, um, never mind). There is no open thread, and I’m looking for J Michael Neal. You still awake? I saw you had a question for me.
Oh, the previous was OT.
J. Michael Neal
I haven’t seen wilfred post in a couple of days.
omen
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
i’d be ashamed to admit to that kind of thinking, too, trucky. so…which site do you go to get your iran conspiracy theories off your chest?
FormerSwingVoter
@omen:
Okay. I’ll try this slowly.
You came in here and accused people of thinking that the Iranian protests were an Israeli plot. An opinion no one here had actually brought up or holds because of how batshit crazy it is.
Then, people called you stupid.
Then, to defend yourself, you talk about how crazy this opinion that people here don’t have is.
…Did I miss something?
s'teve s'
That s’entence could u’se s’ome more Englis’h s’mart’s.
J. Michael Neal
@asiangrrlMN: Yep. I’m here. You don’t think I’d go to bed yet, do you?
asiangrrlMN
@J. Michael Neal: Heh. No. I saw that you had a question for me the other night. Last night? What’s on your mind?
J. Michael Neal
@asiangrrlMN: I realize you have a pretend husband. I’m wondering if you have an opening for an Official Stalker. I’ll be happy to send my resume, but my main qualifications are disturbing capacities to obsess about things and hold grudges, and an ability to be mean and threatening when necessary/wanted/at random. Can I have the job?
[You weren’t expecting a serious question, were you?]
Michael D.
Many people are going to die in Iran before this is over.
passerby
@J. Michael Neal:
J. Michael Neal, dude, that was an elegant essay. I’ve abandoned whatever opinions I had (principally neutral) before I read that , and am now in complete agreement with what you wrote.
The Raven
Perhaps…it would further the goals of the Iranians to die making the protest? Don’t get me wrong. I am not telling the Iranians to martyr themselves. But if they did, it might change minds and, truly, I think, there are going to be many bitter deaths in Iran regardless of what the protestors do. You don’t think Khameini is going to let this pass without a purge, do you?
J. Michael Neal
@The Raven: You’re just looking for food.
steve s
It’s 2:30 am and I’m still 100% sober. Dangit. That’s the problem with reading too much. You keep putting off drinking so you can clearly think about what you read and remember at least a fraction of it tomorrow, and then you wind up being sober most the night.
I’ve got to do better.
J. Michael Neal
@passerby: Thank you.
asiangrrlMN
@J. Michael Neal: First, passerby was right. Your essay was beautiful and poignant. Thank you for sharing it.
Secondly, I would love to have you as my official stalker! Let’s see. I have a pretend hubby and a pretend forlorn, outside in the rain waiting for me guy (Steeplejack) with a cigarette dangling from his lips that he manages to keep lit, and now, an Official Stalker! Woot woot! And if I can send you after people to threaten them? Even better. You’re hired!
JMN Is Now asiangrrlMN's Official Stalker
@asiangrrlMN: Woo hoo! I finally have a job!
The Raven
J. Michael Neal, ahhhh. You hominids are food regardless. Khameini will have his crackdown now or later, we think. We can wait. But perhaps the Iranians might not want to.
passerby
@J. Michael Neal:
Though there are many people who scoff at anything that cannot be seen and because it’s late at night, I am going to go ahead and propose that we imagine a peaceful event in Tehran on Saturday and hold that vision in our collective consciousness.
Positive waves. Because why not.
asiangrrlMN
@passerby: I’m in. Because it can’t hurt.
JMN Is Now asiangrrlMN's Official Stalker
@passerby: I’m in moderation because of the name change, but I’m up for this. I’m sitting here with a sick stomach, and I don’t think I can get to sleep. 4pm in Tehran is 6:30am here, and I may be in for the duration.
passerby
@asiangrrlMN:
Exactly. Some might consider it merely wishful thinking. Others might consider it prayer. But, just plain old hoping for the best, sending best wishes, never hurt anyone.
I guess it’s about being optimistic in the face of something that is unavoidably ugly. Let’s face it. Something is going to happen.
asiangrrlMN
@passerby: Yup. I think of it as sending out good intentions. Plus, I like to send out a white light, too.
As long as I don’t have to sing Kumbyah.
Texas Dem
You’re probably right. Typically, so long as a regime’s security forces remain loyal, it isn’t going to overthrown. From all indications, this regime is quite well armed and still has the support of a substantial portion of its population. I’d love to be wrong about this, but I believe we’ll be dealing with a virulent (and now internationally scorned) anti-American regime in Tehran for some time to come. Any sort of diplomatic engagement will be impossible. Meanwhile, the nuclear program will continue unabated, thereby making an Israeli air strike almost inevitable. Basically, there are two scenarios for what’s about to happen: (1) Romania (where the regime started to crack down and the armed forces mutinied; and (2) Burma and China (where the regimes sent the army into the streets and slaughtered the protesters). My money is on number two.
omen
@FormerSwingVoter:
it was deathtruck’s belittling the uprising as a “twitter revolution” and punch’s “yawn” at the prospect of people dying – is what set me off. it was all too similar to what i was running across on the delusional blogs i pointed to.
if my suspicions were misplaced, i offer my apologies. what’s so hard about a denial if it isn’t true?
An opinion no one here had actually brought up or holds because of how batshit crazy it is.
unless you did a survey, you don’t know that for a fact.
omen
@J. Michael Neal:
I don’t believe the rumors of Lebanese being imported;
i ran across a correction of that rumor:
To the idiotic Spiegel reporter Ulrike Putz & the misinformed (or intentionally disinforming) Atlantic’s Andrew Sullivan, the Iranian Ansar-e-Hezbollah is not even remotely associated with Lebanon’s Hezbollah … Iran’s is a loose knit group of supporters of the government who are either Basij or Veterans of the Iran-Iraq War …AeH members are known for their “heavy handedness” at anti-government demonstrations …
Oh and, they don’t need to be flown from Beirut!
passerby
@asiangrrlMN:
This.
omen
@Texas Dem:
what about recent examples of dictators musharraf in pakistan and charles taylor in liberia being overthrown by popular organized protests?
iluvsummr
Part of me hopes that the protestors will decide to forgo a rally tomorrow and instead make a statement by going on strike, paralyzing the state in a way that doesn’t result in violent confrontation and bloodshed. Whatever happens though, Iran is going to be changed forever, whether it takes 1 week or five years to manifest. You can’t have that many disaffected people & maintain the status quo. I wish the reformists all the best.
steve s
This what?
Tattoosydney
@J. Michael Neal:
JMN – if you’re awake – welcome to our fake, gay, interracial (now, stalker) family.
@asiangrrlMN:
Awww. Your stalker is cute and erudite.
El Cid
Pretty wise observer of Middle Eastern politics & U.S. foreign policy, from teh ebbil left, Stephen Zunes:
********************************
…[A] new generation if Iranians is rising up in the tradition of previous generations using largely nonviolent tactics to challenge their oppression. Those out on the streets in Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and other cities are not just middle class intellectuals but also represent a broad cross-section of the poor and working class and include both the majority Persians as well as other ethnicities as well.
It is not clear whether the opposition can successfully organize a “people power” revolution which have succeeded in ousting autocrats who attempted to steal elections in such countries as the Philippines in 1986, Serbia in 2000, or Ukraine in 2005 or whether – as in Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Mexico – the regime will remain in power.
In any case, it is clearly as home-grown indigenous struggle. Any effort by the United States (which has allowed one — and possible two — stolen elections to stand in recent years) to intervene will only hurt the pro-democracy movement.
Given the history of U.S. interventionism in Iran, Obama’s cautious approach will do more to help those in the current popular struggle than anything more explicit, despite Republican demands to the contrary.
The future of Iran belongs in the hands of the Iranians and the best thing the United States can do to support a more open and pluralistic society in that country is to stay the hell out of the way.
asiangrrlMN
@Tattoosydney: Isn’t he? Let’s keep him and name him George.
Tattoosydney
@asiangrrlMN:
Shall we hug him and squeeze him and pet him and pat him?
ETA: Given up on sleep then, have we?
asiangrrlMN
@Tattoosydney: Sleep? What the hell is that? No, my week of sleeping on time was one of the worst weeks (sleepwise) I’ve ever had. So, I am brushing it aside and focusing on other things.
I’m glad you got my George reference. He just commented on my blog. He changed his name here, so he’s caught in moderation.
How are you?
P.S. “You’re a brick.” That’s a good thing, right? I wouldn’t want to call you names.
asiangrrlMN
Ok. Now I’m going to sleep. Night!
El Cid
Some of the most insightful satire on Middle Eastern politics I’ve encountered (thanks to Helena Cobban of Just World News) — Qifa Nabki (written by Elias Muhanna):
***********************************
55% is the new 98%: Arab Despots Take Vote Rigging Lessons From Iran Debacle
18 June 2009 | Qifa Nabki
CAIRO, Egypt – The massive street protests triggered by President Ahmadinejad’s improbable 63% victory over opposition challenger Mir Hussein Moussavi have prompted Middle Eastern despots to re-think vote rigging strategies for their own upcoming elections.
Abdul-Majid Nadwi, a former political advisor to Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, says that real change has come to the Middle East. “It’s not really feasible anymore to rig an election and produce a 98% or 99% victory. People aren’t going to accept it. You have to be a bit more subtle about it,” said Mr. Nadwi, speaking from the offices of his Cairo-based political consultancy, FortyMoreYears©.
A senior adviser to Syrian president Bashar al-Asad echoed Mr. Nadwi’s sentiments. “As we’re seeing from Iran, even 63% is too high a winning percentage. The best margin of victory is probably around 55%, so that’s what we’re going to be aiming for when President al-Asad comes up for reelection in a few years.”
Analysts and observers are attributing the sea change in public attitudes throughout the Middle East to a growing disenchantment with ruthless dictatorships, but also to the patronizing attitude that they show towards their citizens.
“People have simply had enough,” says Hassan Khalil, deputy editor of a Qatari state-owned newspaper. “I mean, it’s just insulting. We can endure the oppression and the human rights abuses, but what we simply will not stand for anymore is having our intelligence insulted,” said Mr. Khalil.
“Ok, so it’s a sham election, I accept that. But why throw it in my face with a landslide victory, know what I’m saying? I mean, 55% is just as good as 99%, isn’t it?”
President Ahmadinejad’s office did not return a call for comment on this matter.
passerby
@El Cid:
Thanks for linking that El Cid. The man is obviously a great writer and the piece was a nice, concise overview of US/Iran history.
This is one of the gems I picked up:
…the value of martyrdom of Shia Islam.
Wow, this stands out clearly as a significant cultural difference. In fact, it’s in stark contrast to American culture.
El Cid
@passerby: I’m not sure what the thrust of your quotation of the word “martyrdom” word was, but Zunes was categorizing the Iranian responses from actually existing points of Iranian political discourse. Zunes certainly was not endorsing martyrdom, and I hope you were not suggesting such.
PaulW
I’m glancing through the twitter posts Sullivan is putting up. The Iranians are quoting Maya Angelou’s “Still I Rise”. A lot of the twitters are also statements from Iranians that are expecting the worst… and they’re still going out to protest.
I’m still hoping this will be more like the Philippines86 and not like China89. I’m praying.
Woody
If it has reached the point in Iran that people are gonna start getting killed in large numbers by the regime, it is already too late for ANYBODY to do ANYTHING about it. When the bloodbath starts, only time will stop it.
With respect to the difference between USer elections and Iranian ones, and their relative legitimacy, the iranians and we aren’t that much different; the formal difference is pretty small: they get to choose between two wings of a single strict theocratic Party of God; we get to choose between the two wings of a single, strict oligarchic Party of Property.
harlana pepper
Yeah, I think it would be refreshing if we stopped trying to cram our ideas of “democracy” (the nerve) down the throats of other nations while invading their neighbors for no reason. I think that would be a really nice change of pace.
harlana pepper
OT on a lighter note, but Obama was funny last nite. Don’t know how much help he had with his material, but it was great, as was the delivery. The man is darned funny.
Dream On
Know Refresh Page At Andrew Sullivan
Jim-Bob
Sully’s site is green. Now I know how it felt to have worn the yellow Star of David at Birkenau.
harlana pepper
Hey, can I have my own personal blog-stalker, too?
((crickets chirping))
tc125231
@J. Michael Neal:
Cripes. A diamond in the mud.
Thank you.
Joel
@J. Michael Neal: A thoughtful and inciteful post, thank you.
El Cid
Report of a suicide bombing at Iranian shrine to Khomenei.
The Raven
I’ve watched the videos, read what English-language reporting there is… My impression, so far, is that the government’s response is violent, but at a low level. So far, this looks nothing like the Massacre of Tlatalolco (Mexico City, 1968, student protests.) It may escalate to that level, of course. But maybe, just maybe, there is some hope for the protest.
Us corvids gonna have to wait.
El Cid
@El Cid: The suicide bombing story is so far based on 2 Iranian state media sources and no other confirmations.
PeopleAreNoDamnGood
Hey everybody, I just heard that if we twitter a certain message, we can save Iran, and bring Terri Schiavo back to life at the same time.
Meanwhile, let’s all make sure we eat green M&Ms in support of the Iranian freedom fighters.
gbear
@PeopleAreNoDamnGood:
Hey PANDG, I just got a tweet from Terri. She says she’s tired of you being such a dickhead.
burnspbesq
@omen:
“… you read the blogs i cited and the commonality is that they think everybody who doesn’t agree with them is stupid. the level of narcissism is stunning.”
It would appear that you believe substantially the same thing.
Pot, kettle.
matoko_chan
i’ll reprint this here….do what you can.
turn your blog green, set your twitter to tehran timezone, DM a proxy IP, from each according to his/her skillz, write your congressperson to stfu.
Sully is cool…the Dish is a supernode in social network theory, in trusted networks. He just gets data served to him and aggregates it, and the Dish scales up in influence and connections and trust. He is a trusted server node for the Greens, so he gets more and better data feeds than say CNN or (heh) FOX lol.
You all should know….I think the greens will win in the end.
The shi’ia are hardcore pro at civil disobediance. The bomb at Khomeini’s tomb (if it happened, no pics yet) was likely to prevent Mousavi from symbolically “taking refuge” there, or using it as a rally point. Civil disobediance is how the Shi’ia survived the Ummayyd Caliphate after the martyrdom of Imam Ali. Civil disobediance is how the Iranians overthrew the tyrant Shah.
After the 1979 revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini encouraged the population to have many babies. This has resulted in a population bulge like the US boomers. And all these kids are educated. Khomeini made college education a priority. 3 out of 5 people on the street are under 30. So today, unemployment is high, and there are just literally no jobs for many educated young Iranians.
They can’t afford to get married, which is very expensive in Islamic tradition. These people are not going to disappear, and they will eventually take over the electorate.
passerby
@El Cid:
Sorry, it was late and I was too lazy to make my point properly.
No, that’s not the point I was (ineffectively) trying to make. One of the things I like about the piece is that it is a great historical summary and analysis and not so much an editorial (if at all).
Here’s the quote with a little more context:
One element that contributed to people’s willingness to mobilize under harsh repression was the value of martyrdom in Shia Islam. The movement’s emphasis was to “save Islam by our blood.” Indeed, there are interesting parallels between the legacy of martyrdom inspired by early Shia leader Imam Hossein with the Gandhian tradition of self-sacrifice. As demonstrated by their subsequent rule, the Iranian revolution’s leadership – unlike Mohandas Gandhi – clearly did not support nonviolence as a principle, but recognized its utilitarian advantages against the well-armed security apparatus of the Shah’s regime.
It’s the second to last paragraph under the heading “Generations of Struggle” and it explains why the Iranian people have a history of marching in the streets–with results.
Americans, by contrast, wear yellow ribbons, red ribbons or whatever bumper sticker, and take other measures of voicing our dissent and/or showing solidarity, but compared to the Iranians, we do not get out into the streets in numbers great enough to represent a meaningful force. Imagine if the same percentage of Americans turned out in major cities to protest the Iraq ware (or protest anything).
In the past 8 years, the MSM has tightly controlled most of the coverage of dissent during Bush’s regime. I’m not saying we don’t ever get out there but mostly, from the comfort of our desks, we write our congresspeople with little or no effect.
Kent State, Waco, one might get hurt bucking the peace. I venture to say very few Americans are willing to risk tear gas, much less bodily pain or death for the movement du jour. This was a point Cole brought out when he first posted on the topic and Sully’s green stuff–that its not our skulls getting cracked out there.
OTOH, as Zunes points out, martyrdom is a concept that understood in Iran. A matter of culture.
asiangrrlMN
@gbear:
Man, that fucking rocked.
PeopleAreNoDamnGood
@gbear:
Tell her that the baby Jesus called and said she made him cry.
Edit: He called on the green phone, too.
In other news, Sarah Palin said that all real Americans are wearing green today.
demimondian
@iluvsummr: Personally, I don’t worry about the protesters. I want to see the shopkeepers decide that today is a good day for an impromptu vacation. And tomorrow. And the day after.
Governments don’t stand or fall on the students, but on whether little Mirjam gets bread with dinner. You can shoot the students — but God help you if you starve a toddler.
****
@burnspbesq:
It would appear that you believe substantially the same thing.
Pot, kettle.
where did i call anybody stupid?
i voiced objection to certain attitudes, i cited reasons why. the people i called out didn’t offer a counter argument, only name calling.
****
@burnspbesq:
It would appear that you believe substantially the same thing.
Pot, kettle.
where did i call anybody stupid? you didn’t see my note where i offered my apologies if i were mistaken? where is the pot/kettle in that?
i voiced objection to certain attitudes, i cited reasons why.
people i called out for explanation didn’t offer a counter argument, only name calling.
omen
grrrrr…
#136 was me.
-omen