Michael McDonald, the George Mason professor whose minute-by-minute reports on early voting were so valuable, has a look at what turn-out was like last November:
Barack Obama’s race was one of the major themes of the 2008 presidential election. The CPS 2008 CVAP turnout rates by race indicate that the Black, non-Hispanic turnout rate of 65.2% just barely fell shy of the White, non-Hispanic turnout rate of 66.1%. Still, Black turnout increased 4.9 percentage points from 2004, while White turnout decreased by 1.1 percentage points. This increasing Black turnout rate is consistent with the media’s exit polls that showed that Blacks were an increasing share of the electorate, increasing from 11% in 2004 to 13% in 2008. The Hispanic CPS turnout rate also increased by 2.7 percentage points, but still lags far behind other racial groups.
[….]Another major theme arising out of the 2008 election was the surge in youth voting. There is indeed evidence that youth turnout increased relative to older persons. The CPS turnout rate for citizens age 18-29 increased 2.1 percentage points between 2004 and 2008 while all other age categories experienced a decline. Despite this relative increase, youth turnout continues to lag behind all other age categories by sizable margins. The good news is that there is some evidence that youth turnout is catching up in the last two presidential elections.
When it comes to politics, demographics is destiny. If today’s 18-30 age group continues to be a politically-engaged, heavily Democratic group throughout their lives, it will mark a real sea change in American politics. A big increase in Latino turn-out would make a large impact as well.
Comrade Kevin
I see the George Soros-sponsored ACORN goon squads did their jobs very well!
heh heh.
Graeme
I don’t understand why there’s no concern about this from the GOP supporters I know.
Guess they’re too busy fantasizing about new grievances?
Gold Star for Robot Boy
Tell a Repub this, and you’ll get a response along the lines of, "But once those kids have responsibilities and start paying taxes, they’ll turn conservative."
Last fall, I had the opportunity to speak with a poli sci expert on youth voting. She said a citizen’s political affiliation, once established in youth, pretty much stays constant.
So, W created an entire generation of liberals.
ExcuseMeExcuseMe
Kudos on the crafty headline, Doug.
Cris
You bastard
Brachiator
If the political engagement doesn’t pay off, then all bets are off. The Democrats will have to solve the problems that they have inherited.
Laura W
Blast you on the crafty headline, Doug!
I got all excited when I read the first line because I was so expecting a juicy story on MY Michael McDonald.
What a let down. Fortunately, I’m about to go walk and he’s all over my iPod.
(Edit: That is a really good quality video of him doing Lonely Teardrops with Fagan. The NY Rock ‘N Soul Review CD is fabulous. Find it on amazon! Give John the pennies.
Church Lady
I think it’s a little more complicated than that. It makes more sense to look at it from the viewpoint of benefits. Wherever you are in life, the political party that benefits not only your ideals but your pocketbook the most is the party that one identifies with most strongly. It’s the combination of the two that makes it tricky, thus the importance of the independent swing voter.
The Other Steve
Only if Obama does well.
We won’t always be running against Bush and Sarah Palin.
cleek
that will only make McCain even more angry
DougJ
You know I have a soft spot for white soul singers.
smedley
‘Tell a Repub this, and you’ll get a response along the lines of, "But once those kids have responsibilities and start paying taxes, they’ll turn conservative."’ What a fool believes….
Comrade Kevin
@cleek: Here is an appropriate cartoon, maybe Senator McCain has seen it?
wufnik
OK, this actually deserves a little more parsing. According to someone we know who was very involved in the Obama campaign, the 18-22 years olds turned out like crazy, but the other end of this demographic did not, or at least at no higher rate than earlier elections. And anecdotally, for what it’s worth, my kids are 26 and 29, and both have told me they know practically no one their age who voted–and this from a liberal-arts-educated cohort. I’d love to find out that this isn’t true–who has more granulated data on this?
HyperIon
one nit to pick here: today’s 18-30 age group will be tomorrow’s 30-40 age group and those folks vote at a much higher rate (62%) than the 18-30 group (51%). In other words the data show that as one ages, the likelihood of voting increases.
so i’d revise your statement to read:
If tomorrow’s 18-30 age group are similarly politically engaged.
JL
This is good news for John McCain.
DougJ
Today’s 18-30 year-olds more politically engaged than the people who are now 30-40 were when they were 18-30.
So if the trend continues, today’s 18-30 year-olds will vote at an even higher rate in their 30s than those in their 30s do now.
Napoleon
@Gold Star for Robot Boy:
I have read that in multiple places and if true the Republicans are in a really difficult place. Here are some links I saved on this subject in the past.
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/10/14/weekinreview/15kirk_graphic.ready.html
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_01/012847.php#more
Kudos to DougJ on the multiple Doobie Brothers references.
HyperIon
kevin drum has a nice graph (with labeled axes!)
Bill Teefy
Well at one time the demographics were trending heavily Democratic and liberal then LBJ pushed the Equal Rights thing. There was unrest and in certain areas things were hard/bad but on the whole things seemed to be still trending liberal. If that had been the totality of the change balance might have been restored.
Then throw in the war, the anti-war movement, free speech movement, etc. and the changes were coming very fast.
Then came the conservative push-back. The ideas that Equality for All was "really" More for Them. That free speech was only freedom for anti-American-speech. That love was hate – damn dirty hippies.
We are in an interesting time. I am not sure that the right can muster enough troops to make Equal Rights for Gays "More for Them" because homosexuality is spread across the spectrum of groups. The ability to make the anti-war movement the bad guy was pissed away by the charlie foxtrot of Das Decider. The push to make Mexicans the 21st Century "Them" is undercut by the fact that the Western red states will get bluer if the Latino population grows under the cloud of being "Them." And the actual popular anger of today (sorry Mr. Beck and Mr. Dobbs) is directed at the hyper-wealthy who wrecked the economy…and that is a powerful group but not very big.
Maybe we’ll be lucky this time. Maybe Obama will be able to keep the change coming at the right pace.
NonyNony
@Gold Star for Robot Boy:
Which is funny because once I graduated college, started paying taxes, and started worrying more about what kind of world I was leaving for my kids, I got more liberal. I’ve gotten more liberal every year since leaving college behind, actually. Funny how the more I pay in taxes, the more I want to see it spent responsibly, rather than frittered away on tax cuts to rich guys and pointless wars.
On the other hand – the Republicans have gotten so crazy-conservative that even if my politics were exactly the same as they were in High School/early college, I’d probably still be a Democrat right now. Hell I cast my first Presidential vote for George HW Bush, and I think he’d almost be too liberal to be a Republican candidate these days.
DC
Sen Al Franken (D-Mn):
ECC opens remaining 387 absentee ballots, Franken’s recount lead of 225 increases to 312.
Next: Coleman filing appeal(s)
Cris
That’s an interesting ideal, but I sincerely doubt it plays out in reality. Thomas Frank was neither the first nor the last to observe that the Republican base is populated by people who most definitely do not benefit economically from Republican policy.
Honestly, that’s true for either party — the Congress serves wealthy interests in a bipartisan fashion. But what’s really interesting is that the Democratic base has a constituency that works in reverse: wealthy (or at least upper-middle-class) people who support their party because its policies benefit someone else, particularly those who are less well-off.
Brandon T.
Where do your kids live? Here in California (which wasn’t even a swing state!) both my sister (23) and I (26) who live in two separate parts of the state (San Diego and San Francisco) couldn’t avoid empassioned friends who heckled the crap out of everyone to vote.
Incertus
@NonyNony: That’s my story as well, in part because I had some rough times right out of high school but before college (I took eight years between the two) where I was a young dad and we needed some government assistance. We got a little, and wished there were more, so now that I don’t need it, I hope we can provide more for those people who are where I was.
TenguPhule
What will be interesting to see is which will win out, Traditionally heavily socially conservative Latino culture or the focus on immigration, social services & other issues that would normally drive them into Democratic votes.
TenguPhule
Then how do you explain the existance of the modern GOP which only fills one of those requirements?
gbear
Coleman is now in a state of indentured servitude to the GOP. He’s so far in debt that the only way he can get out is to go along with the national GOP pulling out every cheap trick they can find to keep Franken out, and then hope that the GOP will reward him with some cushy lobbyist position once the process grinds Norm’s political future in MN into a bloody pulp.
There’s going to be a hell of a going away party for Norm, but he won’t be invited.
And I can’t wait to hear Bachmann’s take on the matter.
gwangung
@TenguPhule:
I’d be VERY surprised if the cultural issues trumped the bread and butter issues of employment and immigration.
Trinity
@NonyNony: I’m with you. I was a moderate in my 20s but as I’ve gotten older I’ve gotten more and more liberal. Like you, I want my tax dollars to be spent responsibly in a way that doesn’t just serve the wealthy class.
Zifnab
@NonyNony: I was going to say, when I got a real 40 hour job and started to see thousands of dollars coming out of my paycheck every year and watched it funneled to foreign wars, anti-science bullshit, and corporate kickback, I didn’t get more conservative.
When I did my mom’s taxes and realized that, between the capital gains rate and a few clever accounting tricks, she was making three times my salary and paying half my taxes without working a day, I didn’t get more conservative.
When I watched my Republican governor and his associates green light tuition increases in my University year after year after year, I didn’t get more conservative.
When I turned on my radio and got to listen to various fatass multi-millionaires claim that they were populists, but I was just too stupid and lazy and unAmerican to appreciate it, I didn’t get more conservative. Watching FAUX Noise invade every other TV in my state and distribute bullshit talking point after bullshit talking point after retarded ass-backwards nonsensical GOP bullshit talking point hasn’t made me more conservative, either.
At what point in my life, exactly, am I supposed to get more conservative?
TenguPhule
@gwangung
I used to believe that.
Then I discovered a majority of Muslims in America apparently favored Republicans until a few years ago.
Never underestimate human stupidity.
gbear
@gbear:
…and I hope that the national GOP somehow manages to wreck Tim Pawlenty’s political career before this is over too. If the GOP can just stay on the current path, it could happen easily.
End of rant. grrrrr
The Other Steve
Norm just can’t catch a break.
GSD
The culturally conservative Hispanics become Democratic voters after watching the GOP inspired lynch mobs lining up for Mexican target practice on the US border.
I don’t think the far righters are going to be big tenters anytime soon.
-GSD
Zam
Well I would just like to point out that being a 22 year old myself I voted today in Wisconsin. So some of us show up no matter what, well at least one.
Tsulagi
And look for a growing impact down the road. My special latina is fond of telling me “We’re Catholic, and we screw like rabbits…you guys are toast.”
asiangrrlMN
I am not a part of any important demographic, so what I say will matter little, but I have been a rabid liberal from, well, birth. I am not a Democrat based on my socio-economic status, but because I passionately believe that ALL people are worthwhile. I believe in helping those who are less fortunate than I am, and I believe that with rights come responsibility. I grew up in the era of Ronald Reagan (I was too young to really remember Carter), and I knew in my very gut that he did not represent my beliefs at all.
As for Norm Coleman, we will have to pry the Senator seat from his cold, dead fingers. Be a man, Norm, and step down already. We Minnesotans need our second senator already!
gbear, I am with you about Ratface Pawlenty. He needs to be taken down, too. I just wish there weren’t so many strong Democratic choices. I really like two of them, and I think a third one would do a competent job as well.
MikeJ
OT: but since VT gay marriage was brought up in the last thread, DC city council has voted to recognize all marriages performed in any state.
Expect the wingnuts to make a big push for overarching federal power to crush the stated will of the people through their locally elected officials.
jake 4 that 1
But what a fool believes he sees/No wise man has the power to reason away…
Rosali
Since McCain appears to have adopted the attitude "if you people didn’t vote for me y’all can go f… yourselves", I don’t expect the GOP to be making inroads with the Latino vote any time soon.
Woody
Unfortunately, the latino demographic tends to be socially quite conservative.
This may be less true of the younger people.
But it is not, by and large, the young who are coming here. The current flocks of migrants tend to be rural and over-30.
if they stay, and assimilate, they could end up asa conservative a bloc as the first and second wave Cubans…
jake 4 that 1
@MikeJ: Yeah, the CongressCritters beshat the bed when DC instituted a domestic partnership for all comers policy back in the mid-90’s. You stood up in front of any notary public, handed over some cash and signed a piece of paper that had almost zero meaning to anyone but the two people. It was filed somewhere and that was pretty much it. But this grave threat traditional family values had to be destroyed.
Of course, this was the mid-90’s and my DP is nothing but an unpleasant memory, but I doubt the GOP has learned much since then.
John S.
I have a twofer sitting right in front of me.
Our junior graphic designer is 21 and Dominican. She was a very enthusiastic Obama supporter, and loves to engage me on politics at lunch. She is a staunch liberal, but also rabidly anti-Republican, and no amount of "growing up" or making more money is going to change that.
George W. Bush did a much better job of influencing her ideology than myself, MoveOn, the Democratic party or anybody else could have.
fester
@#3 — I’m in the demographic, married, paying off a mortgage and have a 3 month old daughter — my daughter is not quite a red diaper baby ( I like incentives) but pretty damn close, and on some things, my wife is even more liberal than I am :) We’re not changing due to or despite our growing up and taking on more responsibilities.
Assuming no c*ck-ups of Bushian proportions, I think it is safe to say that I’m pretty much locked in as a liberal voter for my lifetime (except when I vote strategically on anti-douchebag incentives)
someguy
Wow, y’all seem primed for a big Republican comeback next year. What’s up with that? You people forget that the Dems were the only party that mattered form 1932 to 1996. Sure, the Republicans managed an occasional president here or there, but they were utterly irrelevant to setting the agenda. Even Nixon had to endorse wage & price controls, and affirmative action, and Ronny Ray Gun had to deal with Tip O’Neil, usually unsuccessfully.
What helps is that the current crop of Republicans are more toxic, insane, and scary than the 1932’ers could ever have imagined. And as for "We won’t always be running against Bush and Sarah Palin," well, that’s true, but I suspect we can run against them really successfully for at least the next 16 years or so, and if that doesn’t work there will always be Mitt’s Magical Underpants, or the R’s general racism, sexism, hatred, and unsuccessful warmongering, never mind their recent shooting sprees. Honestly, would you people lighten up for 5 seconds and not worry about the huge bucket of shit you think is at the end of every rainbow? Republican philosophy is dead, conservatism is dead, and you can forget about them for a generation or two, the asshoools. Right now is the time to move left hard. People will vote their interests and the vast majority of Americans will receive a lot of benefits from liberal rule.
Brick Oven Bill
Meet your new political friend Doug:
Martinez had arranged through a third party to have his daughter marry the older teenager, identified by authorities as Margarito de Jesus Galindo, of Gonzales, California. In exchange, Galindo was to pay Martinez $16,000 and provide him with 160 cases of beer, 100 cases of soda, 50 cases of Gatorade, two cases of wine, and six cases of meat.
This is actually a positive cultural development for me. Traditional fathers of daughters had to pay for the wedding.
Michael
OT, but it appears that Michael Savage thinks Glenn Beck is insane….
http://mediamatters.org/countyfair/200904070017?show=1
Cris
I’ve become more liberal as I’ve become more privileged. Since I got a corporate job that pays me above the median income and provides fantastic health insurance, my attitude has been "why can’t everybody have this?"
Ricky Bobby
@Zifnab
HELLS YEAH!
/witness
someguy
Everybody should have above median income.
Unfortunately, that probably won’t happen, so what we should do, no offense meant, is take some of what you make and give it to less fortunate people. Even it out, and share the wealth around so that everybody is more or less about equally well-off.
As for fantastic health care, we simply need to jettison our disastrously bad system (which has some of the highest infant mortality rates in the world) and go to single payer, and like Canada or the UK or Sweden, we’ll be in good shape.
The Moar You Know
Oh noes!
Project PUMA
Cris
Oh fuck you, you know what I’m saying.
THAT’S WHAT WE’RE DOING DIPSHIT. When you say "I’ve gotten more liberal" it implies that you support policies that do exactly what you are saying.
The Moar You Know
@Ricky Bobby: I’m not sure. I’m 42. I’ve gone from mildly open-minded in my twenties to a full-bore commie in my forties. As someone else remarked, I’ve got it made with a good job, health insurance and my own home, so why the hell can’t everyone else have this too?
So far the only answers to that question seem to be along the lines of "if we give everyone a decent standard of living then some billionaire somewhere won’t be able to afford gold-plating on his Gulfstream".
Argive
Republicans bank on people getting more conservatively narrow-minded with age. I was phonebanking for the Obama campaign one night and I spoke with an older gentleman who rambled for a good 15 minutes (I didn’t hang up right away, as you are supposed to do, because the whole thing was hilarious). In the middle of his diatribe lay this gem:
"These people, who don’t have health insurance? Well, why can’t they go get a job, huh? Why can’t they do that? Just go get a JOB?"
It went on like this. Truly a masterful argument.
Cris
Well, one of the more earnest answers is "if you guarantee everybody a decent standard of living, they’ll have no motivation to work." I don’t really buy that argument, but I’ll be happy to keep an open mind about it while we test it in a real-world setting.
Comrade Kevin
@Cris:
Well you’ll work harder
With a gun in your back
For a bowl of rice a day
Slave for soldiers
Till you starve
Then your head is skewered on a stake
Now you can go where people are one
Now you can go where they get things done
What you need, my son:.
Is a holiday in Cambodia
Where people dress in black
A holiday in Cambodia
Where you’ll kiss ass or crack
Cris
Give the Khmer Rouge credit for thinking outside the box. If it’s too hard to guarantee everybody a decent standard of living, you can guarantee everybody a horrible one.
Michael
I’m turning 47 this week. I went from being moderately openminded to semi-wingnut in 2000 (I actually donated to Alan Keyes) and am now damned near commie.
Of course, I’ve got one kid in college, two getting ready to go to college, all while my liquid savings are gone, my investments are gone tits up, my self-employed health insurance is a joke and a decade’s worth of diligently paid down home equity (plus downpayment earned out of a previous home held for 5 years) is gone. I doubt that I could get what I owe on it.
Did I mention that my credit card statements keep me awake at night? Or that my spouse is in a sales job which relies in great part on discretionary spending by consumers?
I feel like I’m starting from scratch. I’m emotionally exhausted and heartsick over that.
My previous political views were not good for my personal economy.
jake 4 that 1
@Comrade Kevin: WIN excelsis deo.
The Moar You Know
@Comrade Kevin: THAT is the music I’ve been in the mood for today, I just didn’t realize it until you mentioned it. DK on the player now.
Any idiot can do that. We put people on the moon, I think we can at least try to insure that no one dies from lack of healthcare.
Woody
I was raised in a very conservative family.
Both parents referred to FDR as "that man."
I enlisted, under no draft pressure–though in the USAF, to be sure–in ’64 to ‘defend freedom.’ There’s a very embarrasingly gung-ho/killacommie letter to the editor reeking in the morgue of my home-town paper, written the spring before I went in.
I had been pretty thoroughly radicalized by the time I got out, in ’68, what with this and that. But I blamed Johnson for the war and didn’t trust Hump’s loyalty. So I voted for RMN, to my eternal shame.
I have been trending leftward to greater or lesser degrees ever since, such that I was thought to be the ‘resident marxist’ in both the Education departments in which I taught, both at major universities in the South, in the ’80s and ’90s.
Politically and economically, I gravitate toward a Michael-Harrington-style democratic socialism. I read his tome "Socialism" in a class in my first Masters’ program, in ’72. His views on religion informed my own, too.
Mike in NC
Sounds like a good summary of the budget the House GOP was pushing.
Martian Buddy
It would seem that Protestantism is also foundering on the shoals of wingnuttery these days. All the mainstream protestant denominations are in decline, and some of the reasons given by young people leaving the church were revealing:
Even the Catholic church isn’t immune. They’ve lost ~500,000 members (in spite of the influx of Catholic immigrants and the fact that they rarely purge their membership rolls) and a fair percentage of the rank-and-file do not share the official Vatican stances on stem cell research and abortion.
Zifnab
@Cris:
But Cris, why would you want to deviate from our current "take some of what you make and give it to everyone that’s too big to fail" system that’s been working so well? Charity is so last century. We need to keep giving our money to Bernie Madoff, John Thane, Halliburton, and Blackwater.
I mean, shit, a billionaire’s gotta eat. Why can’t you ever think of them?
Zifnab
@The Moar You Know:
We put two people on the moon. We’ve got to insure 300 million. I’m not saying it can’t be done, but it’s not the sort of thing you wave your hand at. Social Security is still not without some gaping flaws – for instance, the GOP ability to plunder it for a decade straight – and Medicare could stand some major improvements.
Everyone in the US was rooting for Neil Armstrong and Buzz Alderan. No one was turning ten digit profits by NOT sending two guys to the moon. It’s a different ball game.
Michael
You can fix Social Security and Medicare tomorrow by simply removing the max cap on earnings subject to contribution.
Expect, of course, the usual pathetic whines of the entitlement class on that.
There are two real potential solutions to healthcare:
1. Go to a single payer system all in one stroke, which would really whipsaw the stock market.
2. Offer tax incentives to remutualize health insurers and move to move hospitals back to non-profit status, all while creating a single payer framework to absorb people on a slower basis.
Either setup absolutely requires the creation of about 10 new medical schools and the massive expansion of existing med schools, all of which would creat a piteous load of whining from the AMA.
SLKRR
@Zifnab:
Though it doesn’t invalidate your point, we actually put twelve people on the moon. And "Buzz Alderan" is one of the funniest typos I’ve seen in a long time…
TenguPhule
Point of order. Medicare has no earnings cap.
superdestroyer
Why doesn’t anyone take the trends to their logical conclusion: That the U.S. will soon be a one party state where the Democratic primary will be the real election. Of course, that means that very few election will be competitive and states and districts will benefit from having the most senior senator of Congressman.
The other question is what happens to politics when elecitons no longer have the ability to make changes happen.
Martian Buddy
@ superdestroyer:
There’s nothing logical about taking a trend and extending the line out to infinity.
But for argument’s sake, let’s assume that the GOP does crawl off under the front porch to die. Is it reasonable to assume that we’d end up with one-party rule? Of course not. The Democratic party is a coalition of various interests — some of whom only support the Democrats because they perceive the Republican party as the greater evil. Remove the GOP from the picture and there would most likely be a Democratic schism that would lead us right back to a two-party system again.
Wile E. Quixote
@Laura W
If you like Michael McDonald you’ll love, positively and absolutely love Yacht Rock. You must go check it out right now!
gwangung
Dude, if you bothered to read the threads here, you’d know that folks DON’T want that to happen.
Of course, Republicans are doing their level best to make this happen by doing all the wrong things to reverse the trend…
superdestroyer
Of course most progressives really want a one party state. It will make politics much easier even though most of those wanting jobs where they run campaigns wil have to find a different career. Look at how New York, Chicago, DC, and California are de facto one party states. Has a third party started up in DC, SF, or Chicago? No, people in those cities just learned how to operate in a one party state.
There is no reason that big government politics at the national level cannot operate the same way that it currently does in Chicago.
Martian Buddy
@ superdestroyer:
Funny, that doesn’t describe most of the progressives I know. There are a lot of them who hate Republicanism for a variety of reasons (warmongering, bigotry, irresponsible tax cuts, violating church-state separation, knee-jerk opposition to social programs, looting the treasury like pinstriped Visigoths, etc.) but wanting the GOP to die off isn’t the same thing as wanting a one-party state. Most of the progressives I know would be quite happy to have two decent alternatives to vote for rather than "batshit wingnut" and "comparatively sane."
I’m sorry, did you say that California is a "de facto one party state?" Really? The place with the Republican governor who couldn’t get his budget past the Republican members of the legislature without more of the aforementioned irresponsible tax cuts? That California?
Of course you’re likely to retort that the GOP is on the wane in California (28% of registered voters and dropping,) but that only illustrates the point; moderate Republicans can win in California and New York, but the party won’t tolerate deviation from the One True Conservatism. Where do you think all the disaffected "RINO" voters are going after the wingnut faction of the GOP runs them out?
You already know what’s wrong with this assertion, because you keep citing cities while studiously ignoring the more heterogeneous politics of the surrounding state. Trying to run a national party as if there’s no regional difference between, say, Utah conservatives and New York conservatives is part of what’s killing the GOP.